Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6059–6073, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6059–6073, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020

Research article 23 Dec 2020

Research article | 23 Dec 2020

Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK

Andres Peñuela et al.

Data sets

iRONS (interactive Reservoir Operation Notebooks and Software) A. Peñuela and F. Pianosi https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4277646

The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s-reforecasts-instantaneous-accum-ecmf/levtype=sfc/type=cf/) F. Vitart, C. Ardilouze, A. Bonet, A. Brookshaw, M. Chen, C. Codorean, M. Déqué, L. Ferranti, E. Fucile, M. Fuentes, H. Hendon, J. Hodgson, H.-S. Kang, A. Kumar, H. Lin, G. Liu, X. Liu, P. Malguzzi, I. Mallas, M. Manoussakis, D. Mastrangelo, C. MacLachlan, P. McLean, A. Minami, R. Mladek, T. Nakazawa, S. Najm, Y. Nie, M. Rixen, A. W. Robertson, P. Ruti, C. Sun, Y. Takaya, M. Tolstykh, F. Venuti, D. Waliser, S. Woolnough, T. Wu, D.-J. Won, H. Xiao, R. Zaripov, and L. Zhang https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1

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Short summary
In this paper we evaluate the potential use of seasonal weather forecasts to improve reservoir operation in a UK water supply system. We found that the use of seasonal forecasts can improve the efficiency of reservoir operation but only if the forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered. We also found the degree of efficiency improvement is strongly affected by the decision maker priorities and the hydrological conditions.