Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 23 Dec 2020
| 23 Dec 2020
Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK
Andres Peñuela
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
Christopher Hutton
Wessex Water Services Ltd, Bath, BA2 7WW, UK
Francesca Pianosi
Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UH, UK
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Cited
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in South America’s largest rivers I. Petry et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101487
- Incorporating long-term numerical weather forecasts to quantify dynamic vulnerability of irrigation supply system: A case study of Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan C. Hsu & Y. Lin 10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109178
- Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area A. Francipane et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2189521
- Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast C. Rougé et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5934
- Catchment‐scale skill assessment of seasonal precipitation forecasts across South Korea Y. Lee et al. 10.1002/joc.8134
- Evaluating integrated water management strategies to inform hydrological drought mitigation D. Wendt et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021
- Assessing seasonal forecast performance to predict crop irrigation requirements to support water management decision-making in the Mediterranean region D. Garcia et al. 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109467
- Predictability of daily streamflow for the great rivers of South America based on a simple metric I. Petry et al. 10.1080/02626667.2022.2139620
- Leveraging GCM-based forecasts for enhanced seasonal streamflow prediction in diverse hydrological regimes M. Girons Lopez et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132504
- Assessing the new Natural Resources Conservation Service water supply forecast model for the American West: A challenging test of explainable, automated, ensemble artificial intelligence S. Fleming et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126782
- A weights combined model for middle and long-term streamflow forecasts and its value to hydropower maximization Y. Guo et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126794
- Seasonal forecasting of pest population dynamics based on downscaled SEAS5 forecasts A. Neta et al. 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110326
- Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts R. Laugesen et al. 10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
- Exploring the value of seasonal flow forecasts for drought management in South Korea Y. Lee et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025
- Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea Y. Lee et al. 10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024
- Scale-invariant sensitivity for multi-purpose water reservoirs management with temporal scale-dependent modeling K. Ren et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117862
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. 10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Improving medium-range streamflow forecasts over South Korea with a dual-encoder transformer model D. Lee & K. Ahn 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122114
- Optimising ensemble streamflow predictions with bias correction and data assimilation techniques M. Tanguy et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasting in South America’s largest rivers I. Petry et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101487
- Incorporating long-term numerical weather forecasts to quantify dynamic vulnerability of irrigation supply system: A case study of Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan C. Hsu & Y. Lin 10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109178
- Combining a data-driven approach with seasonal forecast data to predict reservoir water volume in the Mediterranean area A. Francipane et al. 10.1080/02626667.2023.2189521
- Forecast Families: A New Method to Systematically Evaluate the Benefits of Improving the Skill of an Existing Forecast C. Rougé et al. 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5934
- Catchment‐scale skill assessment of seasonal precipitation forecasts across South Korea Y. Lee et al. 10.1002/joc.8134
- Evaluating integrated water management strategies to inform hydrological drought mitigation D. Wendt et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021
- Assessing seasonal forecast performance to predict crop irrigation requirements to support water management decision-making in the Mediterranean region D. Garcia et al. 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109467
- Predictability of daily streamflow for the great rivers of South America based on a simple metric I. Petry et al. 10.1080/02626667.2022.2139620
- Leveraging GCM-based forecasts for enhanced seasonal streamflow prediction in diverse hydrological regimes M. Girons Lopez et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132504
- Assessing the new Natural Resources Conservation Service water supply forecast model for the American West: A challenging test of explainable, automated, ensemble artificial intelligence S. Fleming et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126782
- A weights combined model for middle and long-term streamflow forecasts and its value to hydropower maximization Y. Guo et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126794
- Seasonal forecasting of pest population dynamics based on downscaled SEAS5 forecasts A. Neta et al. 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110326
- Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts R. Laugesen et al. 10.5194/hess-27-873-2023
- Exploring the value of seasonal flow forecasts for drought management in South Korea Y. Lee et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025
- Skill of seasonal flow forecasts at catchment scale: an assessment across South Korea Y. Lee et al. 10.5194/hess-28-3261-2024
- Scale-invariant sensitivity for multi-purpose water reservoirs management with temporal scale-dependent modeling K. Ren et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117862
- Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling D. Araya et al. 10.5194/hess-27-4385-2023
- Improving medium-range streamflow forecasts over South Korea with a dual-encoder transformer model D. Lee & K. Ahn 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122114
- Optimising ensemble streamflow predictions with bias correction and data assimilation techniques M. Tanguy et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025
Latest update: 23 Apr 2025
Short summary
In this paper we evaluate the potential use of seasonal weather forecasts to improve reservoir operation in a UK water supply system. We found that the use of seasonal forecasts can improve the efficiency of reservoir operation but only if the forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered. We also found the degree of efficiency improvement is strongly affected by the decision maker priorities and the hydrological conditions.
In this paper we evaluate the potential use of seasonal weather forecasts to improve reservoir...
