Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6297-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6297-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Dec 2018
Research article |
| 06 Dec 2018
| 06 Dec 2018
Climate change vs. socio-economic development: understanding the future South Asian water gap
René Reijer Wijngaard
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
FutureWater, Costerweg 1V, 6702 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, P.O. Box 80115,
3508 TC, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Hester Biemans
Water and Food research group, Wageningen University & Research,
P.O.
Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Arthur Friedrich Lutz
FutureWater, Costerweg 1V, 6702 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Arun Bhakta Shrestha
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, G.P.O. Box
3226, Khumaltar, Kathmandu, Nepal
Philippus Wester
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, G.P.O. Box
3226, Khumaltar, Kathmandu, Nepal
Walter Willem Immerzeel
FutureWater, Costerweg 1V, 6702 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, P.O. Box 80115,
3508 TC, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Related authors
Jasper de Jong, Daniel Pflüger, Simone Lingbeek, Claudia E. Wieners, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174273333.31930996/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174273333.31930996/v1, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Injection of reflective sulphate aerosols high in the atmosphere is a proposed method to mitigate global warming. Climate simulations with injection are more expensive than standard future projections. We propose a method that dynamically scales the forcing fields based on pre-existing full-complexity data. This opens up possibilities for ensemble generation, new scenarios and higher resolution runs. We show that our method works for multiple model versions, injection scenarios and resolutions.
René R. Wijngaard, Willem Jan van de Berg, Christaan T. van Dalum, Adam R. Herrington, and Xavier J. Levine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1070, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
We used the variable-resolution CESM to simulate present-day and future temperature and precipitation extremes in the Arctic by applying global grids (~111 km) with and without regional refinement (~28 km) and following a storyline approach. We found that global grids with (without) regional refinement generally perform better in simulating present-day precipitation (temperature) extremes, and that future high (low) temperature and wet precipitation extremes are projected to increase (decrease).
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Jasper de Jong, Daniel Pflüger, Simone Lingbeek, Claudia E. Wieners, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174273333.31930996/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174273333.31930996/v1, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Injection of reflective sulphate aerosols high in the atmosphere is a proposed method to mitigate global warming. Climate simulations with injection are more expensive than standard future projections. We propose a method that dynamically scales the forcing fields based on pre-existing full-complexity data. This opens up possibilities for ensemble generation, new scenarios and higher resolution runs. We show that our method works for multiple model versions, injection scenarios and resolutions.
René R. Wijngaard, Willem Jan van de Berg, Christaan T. van Dalum, Adam R. Herrington, and Xavier J. Levine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1070, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
We used the variable-resolution CESM to simulate present-day and future temperature and precipitation extremes in the Arctic by applying global grids (~111 km) with and without regional refinement (~28 km) and following a storyline approach. We found that global grids with (without) regional refinement generally perform better in simulating present-day precipitation (temperature) extremes, and that future high (low) temperature and wet precipitation extremes are projected to increase (decrease).
Titouan Biget, Fanny Brun, Walter Immerzeel, Leo Martin, Hamish Pritchard, Emily Colier, Yanbin Lei, and Tandong Yao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-863, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
This study explore the precipitation in the southern Tibetan plateau using the water pressure of an high altitude lake and meteorological models and shows that snowfall could be much stronger on the Plateau than what is predicted by the models.
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Léo C. P. Martin, Sebastian Westermann, Michele Magni, Fanny Brun, Joel Fiddes, Yanbin Lei, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Tamara Mathys, Moritz Langer, Simon Allen, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4409–4436, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
René R. Wijngaard, Adam R. Herrington, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, and Soon-Il An
The Cryosphere, 17, 3803–3828, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the ability of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables, such as glacier surface mass balance (SMB), over High Mountain Asia (HMA) by using a global grid (~111 km) with regional refinement (~7 km) over HMA. Evaluations of two different simulations show that climatological biases are reduced, and glacier SMB is improved (but still too negative) by modifying the snow and glacier model and using an updated glacier cover dataset.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Stefan Fugger, Catriona L. Fyffe, Simone Fatichi, Evan Miles, Michael McCarthy, Thomas E. Shaw, Baohong Ding, Wei Yang, Patrick Wagnon, Walter Immerzeel, Qiao Liu, and Francesca Pellicciotti
The Cryosphere, 16, 1631–1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1631-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1631-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monsoon is important for the shrinking and growing of glaciers in the Himalaya during summer. We calculate the melt of seven glaciers in the region using a complex glacier melt model and weather data. We find that monsoonal weather affects glaciers that are covered with a layer of rocky debris and glaciers without such a layer in different ways. It is important to take so-called turbulent fluxes into account. This knowledge is vital for predicting the future of the Himalayan glaciers.
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
Maurice van Tiggelen, Paul C. J. P. Smeets, Carleen H. Reijmer, Bert Wouters, Jakob F. Steiner, Emile J. Nieuwstraten, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 15, 2601–2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2601-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.
Remco J. de Kok, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Pleun N. J. Bonekamp, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 14, 3215–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3215-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3215-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers worldwide are shrinking, yet glaciers in parts of High Mountain Asia are growing. Using models of the regional climate and glacier growth, we reproduce the observed patterns of glacier growth and shrinkage in High Mountain Asia of the last decades. Increases in snow, in part from water that comes from lowland agriculture, have probably been more important than changes in temperature to explain the growing glaciers. We now better understand changes in the crucial mountain water cycle.
Pleun N. J. Bonekamp, Chiel C. van Heerwaarden, Jakob F. Steiner, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 14, 1611–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Drivers controlling melt of debris-covered glaciers are largely unknown. With a 3D turbulence-resolving model the impact of surface properties of debris on micrometeorological variables and the conductive heat flux is shown. Also, we show ice cliffs are local melt hot spots and that turbulent fluxes and local heat advection amplify spatial heterogeneity on the surface.This work is important for glacier mass balance modelling and for the understanding of the evolution of debris-covered glaciers.
Teun van Woerkom, Jakob F. Steiner, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Evan S. Miles, and Walter W. Immerzeel
Earth Surf. Dynam., 7, 411–427, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-411-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-411-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using data obtained from multiple UAV flights over a debris-covered glacier in the Himalaya between 2013 and 2018, we show that the adjacent moraines erode at rates of up to 16 cm per year, contributing to this debris cover. With retreating ice and resulting instability of moraines, this causes the glacier to cover a narrow zone along the lateral moraines in ever-thicker layers of rocks, resulting in a possible future decrease of local melt.
Lu Li, Mingxi Shen, Yukun Hou, Chong-Yu Xu, Arthur F. Lutz, Jie Chen, Sharad K. Jain, Jingjing Li, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1483-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1483-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The study used an integrated glacio-hydrological model for the hydrological projections of the Himalayan Beas basin under climate change. It is very likely that the upper Beas basin will get warmer and wetter in the future. This loss in glacier area will result in a reduction in glacier discharge, while the future changes in total discharge are uncertain. The uncertainty in future hydrological change is not only from GCMs, but also from the bias-correction methods and hydrological modeling.
Fanny Brun, Patrick Wagnon, Etienne Berthier, Joseph M. Shea, Walter W. Immerzeel, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Christian Vincent, Camille Reverchon, Dibas Shrestha, and Yves Arnaud
The Cryosphere, 12, 3439–3457, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3439-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
On debris-covered glaciers, steep ice cliffs experience dramatically enhanced melt compared with the surrounding debris-covered ice. Using field measurements, UAV data and submetre satellite imagery, we estimate the cliff contribution to 2 years of ablation on a debris-covered tongue in Nepal, carefully taking into account ice dynamics. While they occupy only 7 to 8 % of the tongue surface, ice cliffs contributed to 23 to 24 % of the total tongue ablation.
Wouter Greuell, Wietse H. P. Franssen, Hester Biemans, and Ronald W. A. Hutjes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3453–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3453-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3453-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and skill analysis of WUSHP, a system that makes hydrological forecasts for time horizons up to 7 months. Hot spots of significant skill in river discharge were identified in Fennoscandia (from January to October), the southern part of the Mediterranean (from June to August), Poland, north Germany, Romania and Bulgaria (mainly from November to January), and west France (from December to May). Some skill is left at the end of the forecasts.
Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, Anja Rammig, Kirsten Thonicke, Hester Biemans, Matthias Forkel, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jürgen Knauer, Fanny Langerwisch, Wolfgang Lucht, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, and Katharina Waha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Here we provide a comprehensive model description of a global terrestrial biosphere model, named LPJmL4, incorporating the carbon and water cycle and the quantification of agricultural production. The model allows for the consistent and joint quantification of climate and land use change impacts on the biosphere. The model represents the key ecosystem functions, but also the influence of humans on the biosphere. It comes with an evaluation paper to demonstrate the credibility of LPJmL4.
Jakob F. Steiner, Philip D. A. Kraaijenbrink, Sergiu G. Jiduc, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 12, 95–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-95-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-95-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Glaciers that once every few years or decades suddenly advance in length – also known as surging glaciers – are found in many glaciated regions in the world. In the Karakoram glacier tongues are additionally located at low altitudes and relatively close to human settlements. We investigate a very recent and extremely rapid surge in the region that has caused a lake to form in the main valley with possible risks for downstream communities.
Emmy E. Stigter, Niko Wanders, Tuomo M. Saloranta, Joseph M. Shea, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Walter W. Immerzeel
The Cryosphere, 11, 1647–1664, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1647-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1647-2017, 2017
Koji Fujita, Hiroshi Inoue, Takeki Izumi, Satoru Yamaguchi, Ayako Sadakane, Sojiro Sunako, Kouichi Nishimura, Walter W. Immerzeel, Joseph M. Shea, Rijan B. Kayastha, Takanobu Sawagaki, David F. Breashears, Hiroshi Yagi, and Akiko Sakai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 749–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-749-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-749-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We create multiple DEMs from photographs taken by helicopter and UAV and reveal the deposit volumes over the Langtang village, which was destroyed by avalanches induced by the Gorkha earthquake. Estimated snow depth in the source area is consistent with anomalously large snow depths observed at a neighboring glacier. Comparing with a long-term observational data, we conclude that this anomalous winter snow amplified the disaster induced by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Stephan Gruber, Renate Fleiner, Emilie Guegan, Prajjwal Panday, Marc-Olivier Schmid, Dorothea Stumm, Philippus Wester, Yinsheng Zhang, and Lin Zhao
The Cryosphere, 11, 81–99, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-81-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-81-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We review what can be inferred about permafrost in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region. This is important because the area of permafrost exceeds that of glaciers in this region. Climate change will produce diverse permafrost-related impacts on vegetation, water quality, geohazards, and livelihoods. To mitigate this, a better understanding of high-elevation permafrost in subtropical latitudes as well as the pathways connecting environmental change and human livelihoods, is needed.
Walter Immerzeel, Philip Kraaijenbrink, and Liss Andreassen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-292, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) have become increasingly popular in environmental monitoring. In this study we use a UAV to derive a very detailed digital elevation model (DEM) of Storbreen in Norway. We compare our results with a past DEM to derive the mass balance of this glacier. Our results confirm strong mass loss and retreat of continental glaciers in southern Norway and we conclude that UAVs are effective tools in stuyding mountain glaciers at a high level of detail.
Christian Vincent, Patrick Wagnon, Joseph M. Shea, Walter W. Immerzeel, Philip Kraaijenbrink, Dibas Shrestha, Alvaro Soruco, Yves Arnaud, Fanny Brun, Etienne Berthier, and Sonam Futi Sherpa
The Cryosphere, 10, 1845–1858, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1845-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1845-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Approximately 25 % of the glacierized area in the Everest region is covered by debris, yet the surface mass balance of these glaciers has not been measured directly. From terrestrial photogrammetry and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) methods, this study shows that the ablation is strongly reduced by the debris cover. The insulating effect of the debris cover has a larger effect on total mass loss than the enhanced ice ablation due to supraglacial ponds and exposed ice cliffs.
Hester Biemans, Christian Siderius, Ashok Mishra, and Bashir Ahmad
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1971–1982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1971-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1971-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents crop-specific seasonal estimates of irrigation-water demand in South Asia resulting from the typical practice of multiple cropping. We show that crop irrigation-water demand differs sharply between seasons and regions; in Pakistan, winter and summer irrigation demands are almost equal, whereas in Bangladesh the demand in winter is much higher. Insight in where and when sufficient irrigation water supply is critical to sustain food production, is essential to plan adaptation.
W. W. Immerzeel, N. Wanders, A. F. Lutz, J. M. Shea, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4673–4687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The water resources of the upper Indus river basin (UIB) are important for millions of people, yet little is known about the rain and snow fall in the high-altitude regions because of the inaccessibility, the climatic complexity and the lack of observations. In this study we use mass balance of glaciers to reconstruct the amount of precipitation in the UIB and we conclude that this amount is much higher than previously thought.
M.-O. Schmid, P. Baral, S. Gruber, S. Shahi, T. Shrestha, D. Stumm, and P. Wester
The Cryosphere, 9, 2089–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2089-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2089-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The extent and distribution of permafrost in the mountainous parts of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are largely unknown. This article provides a first-order assessment of the two available permafrost maps in the HKH region based on the mapping of rock glaciers in Google Earth. The Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground Ice Conditions does not reproduce mapped conditions in the HKH region adequately, whereas the Global Permafrost Zonation Index does so with more success.
E. Collier, F. Maussion, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. W. Immerzeel, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 9, 1617–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of surface debris on glacier energy and mass fluxes and on atmosphere-glacier feedbacks in the Karakoram range, by including debris in an interactively coupled atmosphere-glacier model. The model is run from 1 May to 1 October 2004, with a simple specification of debris thickness. We find an appreciable reduction in ablation that exceeds 5m w.e. on glacier tongues, as well as significant alterations to near-surface air temperatures and boundary layer dynamics.
W. Terink, A. F. Lutz, G. W. H. Simons, W. W. Immerzeel, and P. Droogers
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2009–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2009-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the Spatial Processes in HYdrology (SPHY) model (v2.0), its underlying concepts, and some example applications. SPHY has the flexibility to be applied in a wide range of hydrologic applications, on various scales, and can easily be implemented. The most relevant hydrologic processes integrated in the SPHY model are rainfall--runoff, cryosphere processes, evapotranspiration processes, the dynamic evolution of evolution of vegetation cover, and lake/reservoir outflow.
A. V. Pastor, F. Ludwig, H. Biemans, H. Hoff, and P. Kabat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5041-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5041-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater ecosystems encompass the most threatened species on earth. Environmental flow requirements need to be addressed globally to provide sufficient water for humans and nature. We present a comparison of five environmental flow methods validated with locally calculated EFRs. We showed that methods based on monthly average flow such as the variable monthly flow method are more reliable than methods based on annual thresholds. A range of EFRs was calculated for large river basins.
A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3661–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3661-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Can adaptations of crop and soil management prevent yield losses during water scarcity? A modeling study
Optimising ensemble streamflow predictions with bias correction and data assimilation techniques
Exploring the value of seasonal flow forecasts for drought management in South Korea
Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective
Creating a national urban flood dataset for China from news texts (2000–2022) at the county level
Spatially explicit assessment of water stress and potential mitigating solutions in a large water-limited basin: the Yellow River basin in China
A scalable and modular reservoir implementation for large-scale integrated hydrologic simulations
The interprovincial green water flow in China and its teleconnected effects on the social economy
Modeling hydropower operations at the scale of a power grid: a demand-based approach
Determining the threshold of issuing flash flood warnings based on people's response process simulation
Modeling water balance components of conifer species using the Noah-MP model in an eastern Mediterranean ecosystem
Assessment of upscaling methodologies for daily crop transpiration using sap flows and two-source energy balance models in almonds under different water statuses and production systems
Making a case for power-sensitive water modelling: a literature review
Developing water supply reservoir operating rules for large-scale hydrological modelling
An investigation of anthropogenic influences on hydrologic connectivity using model stress tests
A Multiagent Socio-hydrologic Framework for Integrated Green Infrastructures and Water Resource Management at Various Spatial Scales
The H2Ours game to explore water use, resources and sustainability: connecting issues in two landscapes in Indonesia
Drainage assessment of irrigation districts: on the precision and accuracy of four parsimonious models
The Value of Hydroclimatic Teleconnections for Snow-based Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting
Impact of reservoir evaporation on future water availability in north-eastern Brazil: a multi-scenario assessment
How economically and environmentally viable are multiple dams in the upper Cauvery Basin, India? A hydro-economic analysis using a landscape-based hydrological model
Is drought protection possible without compromising flood protection? Estimating the maximum dual-use benefit of small flood reservoirs in Southern Germany
Leveraging a novel hybrid ensemble and optimal interpolation approach for enhanced streamflow and flood prediction
A generalised ecohydrological landscape classification for assessing ecosystem risk in Australia due to an altering water regime
Process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model for complex water resource systems considering reclaimed water
Joint optimal operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering the evenness of water deficit
Employing the generalized Pareto distribution to analyze extreme rainfall events on consecutive rainy days in Thailand's Chi watershed: implications for flood management
How to account for irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Drought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain
Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
Malve Heinz, Maria Eliza Turek, Bettina Schaefli, Andreas Keiser, and Annelie Holzkämper
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1807–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Potato farmers in Switzerland are facing drier conditions and water restrictions. We explored how improving soil health and planting early-maturing potato varieties might help them to adapt. Using a computer model, we simulated potato yields and irrigation water needs under water scarcity. Our results show that earlier-maturing potato varieties reduce the reliance on irrigation but result in lower yields. However, improving soil health can significantly reduce yield losses.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Amulya Chevuturi, Eugene Magee, Elizabeth Cooper, Robert H. B. Johnson, Katie Facer-Childs, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1587–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research compares two techniques, bias correction (BC) and data assimilation (DA), for improving river flow forecasts across 316 UK catchments. BC, which corrects errors after simulation, showed broad improvements, while DA, adjusting model states before forecast, excelled under specific conditions like snowmelt and high baseflows. Each method's unique strengths suit different scenarios. These insights can enhance forecasting systems, offering reliable and user-friendly hydrological predictions.
Yongshin Lee, Andres Peñuela, Francesca Pianosi, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1429–1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the value of seasonal flow forecasts (SFFs) in informing decision-making for drought management in South Korea and introduces a novel method for assessing values benchmarked against historical operations. Our results showed the importance of considering flow forecast uncertainty in reservoir operations. There was no significant correlation between the forecast accuracy and value. The method for selecting a compromise release schedule was a key control of the value.
Mari R. Tye, Ming Ge, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ethan D. Gutmann, Allyson Rugg, Cindy L. Bruyère, Sue Ellen Haupt, Flavio Lehner, Rachel McCrary, Andrew J. Newman, and Andy Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1117–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a perceived mismatch between the spatial scales on which global climate models can produce data and those needed for water management decisions. However, poor communication of specific metrics relevant to local decisions is also a problem. We assessed the credibility of a set of water management decision metrics in the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2). CESM2 shows potentially greater use of its output in long-range water management decisions.
Shengnan Fu, David M. Schultz, Heng Lyu, Zhonghua Zheng, and Chi Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 767–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We create China’s first open county-level urban flood dataset (2000–2022) using news media data with the help of deep learning. The dataset reflects both natural and societal influences and includes 7595 urban flood events across 2051 counties, covering 46 % of China’s land area. It reveals the predominance of summer floods, an upward trend since 2000, and a decline from southeast to northwest. Notably, some highly developed regions show a decrease, likely due to improved flood management.
Weibin Zhang, Xining Zhao, Xuerui Gao, Wei Liang, Junyi Li, and Baoqing Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 507–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-507-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Yellow River basin shows worsening water stress indicators (WSIs) over 1965‒2020. Water withdrawal is the main factor driving WSI before 2000, balanced by water availability. Local water yield and upstream flows are key drivers of sub-basin water availability. Water demand is expected to rise by 6.5 % in the 2030s, creating an 8.36 km³ surface water deficit. Enhanced irrigation efficiency can cut this deficit by 25 %, maintaining the stress level but worsening it for 44.9% of the population.
Benjamin D. West, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-245-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-245-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the addition of reservoirs to the hydrologic model ParFlow. ParFlow is particularly good at helping us understand some of the broader drivers behind different parts of the water cycle. By having reservoirs in such a model, we hope to be able to better understand both our impacts on the environment and how to adjust our management of reservoirs to changing conditions.
Shan Sang, Yan Li, Chengcheng Hou, Shuangshuang Zi, and Huiqing Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 67–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-67-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-67-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Green water exchanges between each province in China form an interconnected flow network and have substantial socioeconomic values. Green water flow and its teleconnected socioeconomic effects should be considered in water resource management in addition to blue water.
Laure Baratgin, Jan Polcher, Patrice Dumas, and Philippe Quirion
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5479–5509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modeling is valuable for estimating the potential impact of climate change on hydropower generation. This study presents a comprehensive approach to modeling the management of hydroelectric reservoirs in hydrological models. The total power grid demand for hydropower is distributed to the various power plants to compute their release. The method is tested on the French national power grid, and it is demonstrated that it successfully reproduces the observed behavior of reservoirs.
Ruikang Zhang, Dedi Liu, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Hua Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5229–5247, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash flood warnings cannot be effective without people’s responses to them. We propose a method to determine the threshold of issuing warnings based on a people’s response process simulation. The results show that adjusting the warning threshold according to people’s tolerance levels to the failed warnings can improve warning effectiveness, but the prerequisite is to increase forecasting accuracy and decrease forecasting variance.
Mohsen Amini Fasakhodi, Hakan Djuma, Ioannis Sofokleous, Marinos Eliades, and Adriana Bruggeman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5209–5227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the water use of pine and cypress trees in a semiarid Mediterranean forest environment. We applied a widely used land surface model (Noah-MP) to simulate the water balance of the ecosystem. We found good modeling results for soil moisture. However, the model underestimated the transpiration of the trees during the dry summer months. These findings indicate that more research is needed to improve the modeling of ecosystem responses to climate and land use change.
Manuel Quintanilla-Albornoz, Xavier Miarnau, Ana Pelechá, Héctor Nieto, and Joaquim Bellvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4797–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Remote sensing can be a helpful tool for monitoring crop transpiration (T) for agricultural water management. Since remote sensing provides instantaneous data, upscaling techniques are required to estimate T on a daily scale. This study assesses optimal image acquisition times and four upscaling approaches to estimate daily T. The results indicate that the main errors derive from measurement time and water stress levels, which can be mitigated by choosing a proper upscaling approach.
Rozemarijn ter Horst, Rossella Alba, Jeroen Vos, Maria Rusca, Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Lucie V. Babel, Gert Jan Veldwisch, Jean-Philippe Venot, Bruno Bonté, David W. Walker, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exact power of models often remains hidden, especially when neutrality is claimed. Our review of 61 scientific articles shows that in the scientific literature little attention is given to the power of water models to influence development processes and outcomes. However, there is a lot to learn from those who are openly reflexive. Based on lessons from the review, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what effects.
Saskia Salwey, Gemma Coxon, Francesca Pianosi, Rosanna Lane, Chris Hutton, Michael Bliss Singer, Hilary McMillan, and Jim Freer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4203–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs are essential for water resource management and can significantly impact downstream flow. However, representing reservoirs in hydrological models can be challenging, particularly across large scales. We design a new and simple method for simulating river flow downstream of water supply reservoirs using only open-access data. We demonstrate the approach in 264 reservoir catchments across Great Britain, where we can significantly improve the simulation of reservoir-impacted flow.
Amelie Herzog, Jost Hellwig, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4065–4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Surface water–groundwater interaction can vary along a river. This study used a groundwater model that reproduced relative observed longitudinal and vertical connectivity patterns in the river network to assess the system's response to imposed stress tests. For the case study, imposed groundwater abstraction appears to influence connectivity relatively more than altered recharge, but a quantification of absolute exchange flows will require further model improvements.
Mengxiang Zhang and Ting Fong May Chui
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-232, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-232, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a multiagent socio-hydrologic framework for city, inter-city, and watershed scale integrated green infrastructures (GI) and water resource management. Applied to the Upper Mississippi River Basin, it explores GI-driven water-sharing dynamics in a watershed. It identifies four city-scale water use patterns and characterizes cost and equity in broader scales, thereby enhancing comprehension of GI's role in water resource management and aiding decision-making.
Lisa Tanika, Rika Ratna Sari, Arief Lukman Hakim, Meine van Noordwijk, Marielos Peña-Claros, Beria Leimona, Edi Purwanto, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3807–3835, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The H2Ours game is designed to facilitate knowledge transfer and sharing among stakeholders to trigger commitment and collaborative action to restore hydrological conditions. The adaptability of the H2Ours game was proven in two different landscapes: groundwater recharge in upper to middle sub-watersheds with (over)use of water in the lowland zone and a peatland with drainage, rewetting, oil palm conversion and fire as issues. The game evaluation shows that the H2Ours game meets its purpose.
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep Maria Villar, and Olivier Merlin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3695–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Atabek Umirbekov, Mayra Daniela Peña-Guerrero, Iulii Didovets, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, and Daniel Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
In snowmelt-dominated catchments, predicting river streamflow typically relies on accumulated snowpack. Our study shows that including large-scale climate patterns like El Niño can improve these predictions. We analyzed climate oscillations, seasonal rainfall, and streamflow, then used these insights and snowpack data in a machine learning model to forecast river streamflow. This method yielded more accurate predictions, useful for long-term forecasting or when snowpack estimates are uncertain.
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research focuses on a 4-million-inhabitant tropical region supplied by a network of open-water reservoirs where the dry season lasts for 8 months (Jun−Dec). We analysed the impact of four climate change scenarios on the evaporation rate and the associated availability (water yield distributed per year). The worst-case scenario shows that by the end of the century (2071−2099), the evaporation rate in the dry season could increase by 6 %, which would reduce stored water by about 80 %.
Anjana Ekka, Yong Jiang, Saket Pande, and Pieter van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we analyse the economic and ecological performance of existing multiple big reservoirs on a daily timescale for a major river basin (upper Cauvery) in India, where pre-intervention data were not available but where there are increasing calls for such assessments. Results show that smaller reservoirs on smaller streams that maximize the economic value of stored water are better for the basin economy and the environment. The approach can help to prioritize dam removals.
Sarah Quỳnh Giang Ho and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2167, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use models to demonstrate that even small flood reservoirs – which capture water to avoid floods downstream – can be repurposed to release water in drier conditions without affecting their ability to protect against floods. By capturing water and releasing once water levels are low, we show that reservoirs can greatly increase water available in drought. Having more water coming in, however, is not necessarily better for drought protection.
Mohamad El Gharamti, Arezoo Rafieeinasab, and James L. McCreight
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3133–3159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a hybrid data assimilation scheme for precise streamflow predictions during intense rainfall and hurricanes. Tested in real events, it outperforms traditional methods by up to 50 %, utilizing ensemble and climatological background covariances. The adaptive algorithm ensures reliability with a small ensemble, offering improved forecasts up to 18 h in advance, marking a significant advancement in flood prediction capabilities.
Alexander Herr, Linda E. Merrin, Patrick J. Mitchell, Anthony P. O'Grady, Kate L. Holland, Richard E. Mount, David A. Post, Chris R. Pavey, and Ashley D. Sparrow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1957–1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an ecohydrological classification for regions with limited hydrological records. It provides causal links of landscape features and their water requirement. The classification is an essential framework for modelling the impact of future coal resource developments via water on the features. A rule set combines diverse data with prioritisation, resulting in a transparent, repeatable and adjustable approach. We show examples of linking ecohydrology with environmental impacts.
Jing Liu, Yue-Ping Xu, Wei Zhang, Shiwu Wang, and Siwei Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1325–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Applying optimal water allocation models to simultaneously enable economic benefits, water preferences, and environmental demands at different decision levels, timescales, and regions is a challenge. In this study, a process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model (PTSOA) is established to achieve these goals. Reused, reclaimed water is also coupled to capture environmentally friendly solutions. Network analysis was introduced to reduce competition among different stakeholders.
Bing-Yi Zhou, Guo-Hua Fang, Xin Li, Jian Zhou, and Hua-Yu Zhong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 817–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The current unreasonable inter-basin water transfer operation leads to the problem of spatial and temporal imbalances in water allocation. This paper defines a water deficit evenness index and incorporates it into a joint optimization model for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering ecology and economy. At the same time, the lake storage capacity performs well, and the water transfer efficiency of the river is significantly improved.
Tossapol Phoophiwfa, Prapawan Chomphuwiset, Thanawan Prahadchai, Jeong-Soo Park, Arthit Apichottanakul, Watchara Theppang, and Piyapatr Busababodhin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risk management in Thailand's Chi watershed. By analyzing historical data, we identified regions, notably Udon Thani and Chaiyaphum, with a high risk of flash flooding. To aid in flood risk assessment, visual maps were created. The study underscores the importance of preparing for extreme rainfall events, particularly in the context of climate change, to effectively mitigate potential flood damage.
Elisabeth Brochet, Youen Grusson, Sabine Sauvage, Ludovic Lhuissier, and Valérie Demarez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 49–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to take into account irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model. The model we used combines agriculture and hydrological modeling. Two different crop models were compared, the first based on air temperature and the second based on Sentinel-2 satellite data. Results show that including remote sensing data leads to better emergence dates. Both methods allow us to simulate the daily irrigation withdrawals and downstream flow with a good accuracy, especially during low-flow periods.
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Kerr J. Adams, Christopher A. J. Macleod, Marc J. Metzger, Nicola Melville, Rachel C. Helliwell, Jim Pritchard, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2205–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles and Christian L. E. Franzke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Cited articles
ADB: Asian Development Outlook 2018: How Technology Affects Jobs, Mandaluyong
City, Philippines, 2018.
Alcamo, J. M., Flörke, M., and Märker, M.: Future long-term changes
in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes,
Hydrolog. Sci. J., 52, 247–275, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.2.247, 2007.
Arnell, N. W.: Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and
socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ. Chang., 14, 31–52,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006, 2004.
Arnell, N. W. and Lloyd-Hughes, B.: The global-scale impacts of climate
change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic
scenarios, Climatic Change, 122, 127–140, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4,
2014.
Asoka, A., Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., and Mishra, V.: Relative contribution of
monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,
Nat. Geosci., 10, 109–117, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2869, 2017.
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a
warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438,
303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141, 2005.
Biemans, H., Hutjes, R. W. A., Kabat, P., Strengers, B. J., Gerten, D., and
Rost, S.: Effects of Precipitation Uncertainty on Discharge Calculations for
Main River Basins, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 1011–1025,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM1067.1, 2009.
Biemans, H., Haddeland, I., Kabat, P., Ludwig, F., Hutjes, R. W. A., Heinke,
J., Von Bloh, W., and Gerten, D.: Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and
irrigation water supply during the 20th century, Water Resour. Res., 47,
W03509, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008929, 2011.
Biemans, H., Speelman, L. H., Ludwig, F., Moors, E. J., Wiltshire, A. J.,
Kumar, P., Gerten, D., and Kabat, P.: Future water resources for food
production in five South Asian river basins and potential for adaptation – A
modeling study, Sci. Total Environ., 468–469, S117–S131,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.05.092, 2013.
Biemans, H., Siderius, C., Mishra, A., and Ahmad, B.: Crop-specific seasonal
estimates of irrigation-water demand in South Asia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,
20, 1971–1982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1971-2016, 2016.
Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions,
Water Resour. Res., 51, 4923–4947, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017173, 2015.
Bijl, D. L., Bogaart, P. W., Kram, T., de Vries, B. J. M., and van Vuuren, D.
P.: Long-term water demand for electricity, industry and households, Environ.
Sci. Policy, 55, 75–86, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.09.005, 2016.
Bondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W.,
Gerten, D., Lotze-campen, H., Müller, C., Reichstein, M., and Smith, B.:
Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial
carbon balance, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 679–706,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x, 2007.
Bookhagen, B. and Burbank, D. W.: Toward a complete Himalayan hydrological
budget: Spatiotemporal distribution of snowmelt and rainfall and their impact
on river discharge, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 115, F03019,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JF001426, 2010.
Brigode, P., Oudin, L., and Perrin, C.: Hydrological model parameter
instability: A source of additional uncertainty in estimating the
hydrological impacts of climate change?, J. Hydrol., 476, 410–425,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.012, 2013.
Cheema, M. J. M. and Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.: Land use and land cover
classification in the irrigated Indus Basin using growth phenology
information from satellite data to support water management analysis, Agr.
Water Manage., 97, 1541–1552, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2010.05.009, 2010.
Cheema, M. J. M., Immerzeel, W. W., and Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.: Spatial
quantification of groundwater abstraction in the irrigated indus basin,
Groundwater, 52, 25–36, https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.12027, 2014.
Coron, L., Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Lerat, J., Vaze, J., Bourqui, M.,
and Hendrickx, F.: Crash testing hydrological models in contrasted climate
conditions: An experiment on 216 Australian catchments, Water Resour. Res.,
48, W05552, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011721, 2012.
de Boer, F.: HiHydroSoil: A High Resolution Soil Map of Hydraulic Properties,
Wageningen, the Netherlands, 2016.
Defourny, P., Vancutsem, C., Bicheron, C., Brockmann, C., Nino, F., Schouten,
L., and Leroy, M.: GlobCover: A 300M Global Land Cover Product for 2005 Using
ENVISAT MERIS Time Series, 8–11 May 2006, Proc. ISPRS Comm. VII Mid-Term
Symp., 2007.
De Souza, K., Kituyi, E., Harvey, B., Leone, M., Murali, K. S., and Ford, J.
D.: Vulnerability to climate change in three hot spots in Africa and Asia:
key issues for policy-relevant adaptation and resilience-building research,
Reg. Environ. Change, 15, 747–753, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0755-8, 2015.
Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., Lassaletta, L.,
Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Hermans, K., Harmsen, M., Daioglou, V., Biemans, H.,
van der Sluis, S., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Exploring SSP land-use dynamics
using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and
land-based climate change mitigation, Global Environ. Chang., 48, 119–135,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.014, 2018.
Döll, P., Fiedler, K., and Zhang, J.: Global-scale analysis of river flow
alterations due to water withdrawals and reservoirs, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 13, 2413–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-2413-2009, 2009.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.
J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Fader, M., Rost, S., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., and Gerten, D.: Virtual
water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future
patterns, J. Hydrol., 384, 218–231, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.12.011, 2010.
FAO: Irrigation in Southern and Eastern Asia in figures, Rome, Italy, 2012.
FAO: AQUASTAT Database, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO), available at:
http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm (last access:
20 December 2017), 2016.
FAO: FAOSTAT Database, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO), available at: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#home (last
access: 9 January 2017), 2017.
FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISSCAS/JRC: Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.2).,
Rome, Italy and Laxenburg, Austria, 2012.
Gain, A. K. and Wada, Y.: Assessment of Future Water Scarcity at Different
Spatial and Temporal Scales of the Brahmaputra River Basin, Water Resour.
Manag., 28, 999–1012, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0530-5, 2014.
Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Biemans, H., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Hanasaki,
N., Konzmann, M., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Schewe, J., Stacke, T., Tessler, Z.
D., Wada, Y., and Wisser, D.: Global water resources affected by human
interventions and climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3251–3256,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222475110, 2014.
Hall, D. K. and Riggs, G. A.: MODIS/Terra Snow Cover Monthly L3 Global
0.05Deg CMG, Version 6, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2015.
Hall, D. K., Riggs, G. A., Digirolamo, N. E., and Bayr, K. J.: MODIS
Snow-Cover Products, Remote Sens. Environ., 83, 88–89, 2002.
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N.,
Shen, Y., and Tanaka, K.: An integrated model for the assessment of global
water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological
forcing, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1007–1025,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-1007-2008, 2008a.
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N.,
Shen, Y., and Tanaka, K.: An integrated model for the assessment of global
water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 12, 1027–1037, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-1027-2008, 2008b.
Hanasaki, N., Fujimori, S., Yamamoto, T., Yoshikawa, S., Masaki, Y., Hijioka,
Y., Kainuma, M., Kanamori, Y., Masui, T., Takahashi, K., and Kanae, S.: A
global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part
2: Water availability and scarcity, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2393–2413,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2393-2013, 2013.
Hock, R.: Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas, J. Hydrol.,
282, 104–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00257-9, 2003.
IIASA: SSP Database, available at:
https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about (last
access: 10 January 2018), 2017.
Immerzeel, W. W.: Historical trends in future predictions of climate
variability in the Brahmputra basin, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 243–254, 2008.
Immerzeel, W. W., van Beek, L. P. H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Climate change
will affect the Asian water towers, Science, 328, 1382–5,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188, 2010.
Immerzeel, W. W., Wanders, N., Lutz, A. F., Shea, J. M., and Bierkens, M. F.
P.: Reconciling high-altitude precipitation in the upper Indus basin with
glacier mass balances and runoff, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4673–4687,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015, 2015.
International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook 2016: Subdued Demand:
Symptoms and Remedies, available at:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/ (last access:
14 September 2017), 2016.
Jacob, T., Wahr, J., Pfeffer, W. T., and Swenson, S.: Recent contributions of
glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise, Nature, 482, 514–518,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10847, 2012.
Jägermeyr, J., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Schaphoff, S., Kummu, M., and
Lucht, W.: Water savings potentials of irrigation systems: global simulation
of processes and linkages, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3073–3091,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3073-2015, 2015.
Jägermeyr, J., Pastor, A. V., Biemans, H., and Gerten, D.: Reconciling
irrigated food production with environmental flows for Sustainable
Development Goals implementation, Nat. Commun., 8, 15900,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15900, 2017.
Kääb, A., Berthier, E., Nuth, C., Gardelle, J., and Arnaud, Y.:
Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the
Himalayas, Nature, 488, 495–498, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11324, 2012.
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., and Janssen, P.: Long-term dynamic modeling
of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way: HYDE 3.1,
Holocene, 20, 565–573, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683609356587, 2010.
Kokkonen, T., Koivusalo, H., Jakeman, A., and Norton, J.: Construction of a
degree–day snow model in the light of the ten iterative steps in model
development, Proc. iEMSs Third Bienn. Meet. “Summit Environ. Model.
Software”, July 2006, Step 2, 12, available at:
http://www.iemss.org/iemss2006/papers/w4/Kokkonen.pdf (last access:
3 December 2018), 2006.
Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Lutz, A. F., and Immerzeel, W.
W.: Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia's
glaciers, Nature, 549, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23878, 2017.
Kumar, K. K., Patwardhan, S. K., Kulkarni, A. V., Kamala, K., Koteswara Rao,
K., and Jones, R.: Simulated projections for summer monsoon climate over
India by a high-resolution regional climate model (PRECIS), Curr. Sci. India,
101, 312–326, 2011.
Lehner, B., Verdin, K., and Jarvis, A.: New global hydrography derived from
spaceborne elevation data, EOS (Washington, DC), 89, 93–94,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008EO100001, 2008.
Lehner, B., Liermann, C. R., Revenga, C., Vörösmarty, C. J., Fekete,
B., Crouzet, P., Döll, P., Endejan, M., Frenken, K., Magome, J., Nilsson,
C., Robertson, J. C., Rödel, R., Sindorf, N., and Wisser, D.:
High-resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable
river-flow management, Front. Ecol. Environ., 9, 494–502,
https://doi.org/10.1890/100125, 2011.
Liu, J., Yang, H., Gosling, S. N., Kummu, M., Flörke, M., Pfister, S.,
Hanasaki, N., Wada, Y., Zhang, X., Zheng, C., Alcamo, J. M., and Oki, T.:
Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future, Earths Future,
5, 545–559, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000518, 2017.
Lutz, A. F. and Immerzeel, W. W.: HI-AWARE Reference Climate Dataset for the
Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra River Basins, Wageningen, the Netherlands,
2015.
Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Shrestha, A. B., and Bierkens, M. F. P.:
Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and
precipitation, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 587–592, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2237,
2014.
Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Shrestha, A. B., and
Bierkens, M. F. P.: Climate change impacts on the upper indus hydrology:
Sources, shifts and extremes, PLoS One, 11, e0165630,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165630, 2016a.
Lutz, A. F., ter Maat, H. W., Biemans, H., Shrestha, A. B., Wester, P., and
Immerzeel, W. W.: Selecting representative climate models for climate change
impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach, Int. J.
Climatol., 36, 3988–4005, 2016b.
Lutz, A. F., ter Maat, H. W., Wijngaard, R. R., Biemans, H., Syed, A.,
Shrestha, A. B., Wester, P., and Immerzeel, W. W.: South Asian river basins
in a 1.5 ∘C warmer world, Reg. Environ. Change, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1433-4, 2018.
Masood, M., Yeh, P. J.-F., Hanasaki, N., and Takeuchi, K.: Model study of the
impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of
Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 747–770,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-747-2015, 2015.
Merz, R., Parajka, J., and Blöschl, G.: Time stability of catchment model
parameters: Implications for climate impact analyses, Water Resour. Res., 47,
W02531, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009505, 2011.
Molden, D., Sharma, E., Shrestha, A. B., Chettri, N., Shrestha Pradhan, N.,
and Kotru, R.: Advancing Regional and Transboundary Cooperation in the
Conflict-Prone Hindu Kush–Himalaya, Mt. Res. Dev., 37, 502–508,
https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-17-00108.1, 2017.
Moors, E. J., Groot, A., Biemans, H., van Scheltinga, C. T., Siderius, C.,
Stoffel, M., Huggel, C., Wiltshire, A. J., Mathison, C., Ridley, J., Jacob,
D., Kumar, P., Bhadwal, S., Gosain, A., and Collins, D. N.: Adaptation to
changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India, Environ. Sci.
Policy, 14, 758–769, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.03.005, 2011.
Mukherji, A., Molden, D., Nepal, S., Rasul, G., and Wagnon, P.: Himalayan
waters at the crossroads: issues and challenges, Int. J. Water Resour. D.,
31, 151–160, https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2015.1040871, 2015.
Mukherji, A., Scott, C., and Molden, D.: Megatrends in Hindu Kush Himalaya?:
Climate Change, Urbanisation and Migration and Their Implications for Water,
Energy and Food, in: Assessing Global Water Megatrends, 125–146, Springer,
Singapore, 2018.
Nelson, G. C., Valin, H., Sands, R. D., Havlík, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng,
D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., von Lampe,
M., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason d'Croz, D., van Meijl, H., van der Mensbrugghe,
D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S., Schmid, E.,
Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., and Willenbockel, D.: Climate change effects on
agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks, P. Natl. Acad. Sci.
USA, 111, 3274–3279, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222465110, 2014.
Nepal, S.: Impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Koshi
river basin in the Himalayan region, J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 10, 76–89,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2015.12.001, 2016.
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter,
T. R., Mathur, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: A new scenario framework for
climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways,
Climatic Change, 122, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2, 2014.
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K.,
Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K.,
Levy, M., and Solecki, W.: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared
socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century, Global
Environ. Chang., 42, 169–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004, 2015.
Palazzi, E., Filippi, L., and von Hardenberg, J.: Insights into
elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas from CMIP5 model
simulations, Clim. Dynam., 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3316-z, 2016.
Pastor, A. V., Ludwig, F., Biemans, H., Hoff, H., and Kabat, P.: Accounting
for environmental flow requirements in global water assessments, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5041-2014,
2014.
Pepin, N., Bradley, R. S., Diaz, H. F., Baraer, M., Caceres, E. B., Forsythe,
N., Fowler, H., Greenwood, G., Hashmi, M. Z., Liu, X. D., Miller, J. R.,
Ning, L., Ohmura, A., Palazzi, E., Rangwala, I., Schöner, W., Severskiy,
I., Shahgedanova, M., Wang, M. B., Williamson, S. N., and Yang, D. Q.:
Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world, Nat. Clim.
Chang., 5, 424–430, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563, 2015.
Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., and Döll, P.: MIRCA2000-Global monthly
irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: A new high-resolution
data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling, Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
24, GB1011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003435, 2010.
Rasul, G.: Food, water, and energy security in South Asia: A nexus
perspective from the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, Environ. Sci. Policy, 39,
35–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.01.010, 2014.
Rasul, G.: Managing the food, water, and energy nexus for achieving the
Sustainable Development Goals in South Asia, Environ. Dev., 18, 14–25,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2015.12.001, 2016.
Rees, H. G. and Collins, D. N.: Regional differences in response of flow in
glacier-fed Himalayan rivers to climatic warming, Hydrol. Process., 20,
2157–2169, 2006.
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C.,
Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp,
A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S.,
Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da
Silva, L. A., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D.
E. H. J., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer,
G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M.,
Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A.,
and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use,
and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ.
Chang., 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017.
Richey, A. S., Thomas, B. F., Lo, M. H., Reager, J. T., Famiglietti, J. S.,
Voss, K., Swenson, S., and Rodell, M.: Quantifying renewable groundwater
stress with GRACE, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5217–5237,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017349, 2015.
Rodell, M., Velicogna, I., and Famiglietti, J. S.: Satellite-based estimates
of groundwater depletion in India, Nature, 460, 999–1002,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08238, 2009.
Rost, S., Gerten, D., Bondeau, A., Lucht, W., Rohwer, J., and Schaphoff, S.:
Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global
water system, Water Resour. Res., 44, W09405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006331, 2008.
Sarmadian, F. and Keshavarzi, A.: Developing Pedotransfer Functions for
Estimating some Soil Properties using Artificial Neural Network and
Multivariate Regression Approaches, Int. J. Environ. Earth Sci., 1, 31–37
2010.
Schaphoff, S., Heyder, U., Ostberg, S., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., and Lucht,
W.: Contribution of permafrost soils to the global carbon budget, Environ.
Res. Lett., 8, 014026, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014026, 2013.
Schaphoff, S., von Bloh, W., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K., Biemans, H., Forkel,
M., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Knauer, J., Langerwisch, F.,
Lucht, W., Müller, C., Rolinski, S., and Waha, K.: LPJmL4 – a dynamic
global vegetation model with managed land – Part 1: Model description,
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1343–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1343-2018, 2018.
Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N. W., Clark, D.
B., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Colón-González, F. J.,
Gosling, S. N., Kim, H., Liu, X., Masaki, Y., Portmann, F. T., Satoh, Y.,
Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Albrecht, T., Frieler, K.,
Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., and Kabat, P.: Multimodel assessment of water
scarcity under climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3245–3250,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110, 2014.
Seneviratne, S. I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C. M., Kanae, S.,
Kossin, J., Luo, Y., Marengo, J., McInnes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M.,
Sorteberg, A., Vera, C., and Zhang, X.: Changes in Climate Extremes and their
Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment, in: Managing the Risks of
Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, edited by:
Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Dahe, Q., Dokken, D. I., Ebi, K.
L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor,
M., and Midgley, P. M., 109–230, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,
and New York, USA, 2012.
Sharmila, S., Joseph, S., Sahai, A. K., Abhilash, S., and Chattopadhyay, R.:
Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change
scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models, Global Planet. Change,
124, 62–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.004, 2015.
Shrestha, A. B., Wahid, S. M., Vaidya, R. A., Shrestha, M. S., and Molden, D.
J.: Regional Water Cooperation in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region, in: Free
Flow – Reaching Water Security Through Water Cooperation, edited by:
Griffiths, J. and Lambert, R., 65–69, United Nations Educational, Scientific
and Cultural Organization, Paris, France, 2013.
Siebert, S., Burke, J., Faures, J. M., Frenken, K., Hoogeveen, J., Döll, P.,
and Portmann, F. T.: Groundwater use for irrigation – a global inventory,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1863–1880,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1863-2010, 2010.
Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Kram, T., Bouwman, L., Alkemade, R.,
Bakkenes, M., Biemans, H., Bouwman, A., Den Elzen, M., Janse, J., Lucas, P.,
van Minnen, J., Müller, M., and Prins, A.: Integrated assessment of
global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0: Model description and policy
applications, the Hague, the Netherlands, 2014.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Taylor, R.: Rethinking water scarcity: The role of storage, EOS (Washington,
DC), 90, 237–238, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009EO280001, 2009.
Terink, W., Lutz, A. F., Simons, G. W. H., Immerzeel, W. W., and Droogers,
P.: SPHY v2.0: Spatial Processes in HYdrology, Geosci. Model Dev., 8,
2009–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2009-2015, 2015.
Terink, W., Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Droogers, P., Khanal, S., Nepal,
S., and Shrestha, A. B.: Hydrological and Climate Change Assessment for
Hydropower development in the Tamakoshi River Basin, Nepal, Wageningen, the
Netherlands, 2017.
Themeßl, M. J., Gobiet, A., and Heinrich, G.: Empirical-statistical
downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on
the climate change signal, Climatic Change, 112, 449–468,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0224-4, 2011.
Tiwari, V. M., Wahr, J., and Swenson, S.: Dwindling groundwater resources in
northern India, from satellite gravity observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36,
L18401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039401, 2009.
Turner, A. G. and Annamalai, H.: Climate change and the South Asian summer
monsoon, Nat. Clim. Chang., 2, 587–595, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495, 2012.
UN-DESA: World Urbanization Prospects 2018, available at:
https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/, last access: 6 June 2018.
van Beek, L. P. H., Wada, Y., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global monthly water
stress: 1. Water balance and water availability, Water Resour. Res., 47,
W07517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009791, 2011.
van Vuuren, D. P. and Carter, T. R.: Climate and socio-economic scenarios for
climate change research and assessment: Reconciling the new with the ol,
Climatic Change, 122, 415–429, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0974-2, 2014.
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard,
K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J. F., Masui, T.,
Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The
representative concentration pathways: An overview, Climatic Change, 109,
5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B. C., Ebi, K. L., Riahi, K.,
Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R., and
Winkler, H.: A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario
matrix architecture, Climatic Change, 122, 373–386,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1, 2014.
Vaze, J., Post, D. A., Chiew, F. H. S., Perraud, J. M., Viney, N. R., and
Teng, J.: Climate non-stationarity – Validity of calibrated rainfall–runoff
models for use in climate change studies, J. Hydrol., 394, 447–457,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.018, 2010.
Veldkamp, T. I. E., Wada, Y., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Döll, P., Gosling, S.
N., Liu, J., Masaki, Y., Oki, T., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y. H., Satoh, Y.,
Kim, H., and Ward, P. J.: Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to
human interventions in the 20th and 21st century, Nat. Commun., 8, 15697,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15697, 2017.
Viste, E. and Sorteberg, A.: Snowfall in the Himalayas: an uncertain future
from a little-known past, The Cryosphere, 9, 1147–1167,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1147-2015, 2015.
Vörösmarty, C. J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., and Lammers, R. B.:
Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population
Growth, Sci. Mag., 289, 284–288, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284, 2000.
Wada, Y.: Modeling Groundwater Depletion at Regional and Global Scales:
Present State and Future Prospects, Surv. Geophys., 37, 419–451,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-015-9347-x, 2016.
Wada, Y., van Beek, L. P. H., van Kempen, C. M., Reckman, J. W. T. M., Vasak,
S., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global depletion of groundwater resources,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044571, 2010.
Wada, Y., van Beek, L. P. H., Viviroli, D., Dürr, H., Weingartner, R.,
and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global monthly water stress: 2. Water demand and
severity of water stress, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07518,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009792, 2011a.
Wada, Y., van Beek, L. P. H., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Modelling global water
stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water
demand and climate variability, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3785–3808,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3785-2011, 2011b.
Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I.,
Hanasaki, N., Masaki, Y., Portmann, F. T., Stacke, T., Tessler, Z., and
Schewe, J.: Multimodel projections and uncertainties of irrigation water
demand under climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4626–4632,
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50686, 2013.
Wada, Y., Wisser, D., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global modeling of withdrawal,
allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources,
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 15–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-15-2014, 2014.
Wada, Y., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Eisner, S., Fischer, G., Tramberend,
S., Satoh, Y., van Vliet, M. T. H., Yillia, P., Ringler, C., Burek, P., and
Wiberg, D.: Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures
and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
175–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-175-2016, 2016.
Waha, K., van Bussel, L. G. J., Müller, C., and Bondeau, A.:
Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates, Global Ecol.
Biogeogr., 21, 247–259, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00678.x, 2012.
Weedon, G. P., Gomes, S., Adam, J. C., Bellouin, N., Viterbo, P., Bellouin,
N., Boucher, O., and Best, M. J.: The Watch Forcing Data 1958–2001: a
Meteorological Forcing Dataset for Land Surface-and Hydrological-Models,
Watch Tech. Rep. 22, 41 pp., 2010.
Weedon, G. P., Gomes, S., Viterbo, P., Shuttleworth, W. J., Blyth, E.,
Österle, H., Adam, J. C., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., and Best, M. J.:
Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional
Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century, J.
Hydrometeorol., 12, 823–848, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1369.1, 2011.
Weedon, G. P., Balsamo, G., Bellouin, N., Gomes, S., Best, M. J., and
Viterbo, P.: The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing data
methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, Water Resour. Res., 50,
7505–7514, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015638, 2014.
Westra, S., Thyer, M., Leonard, M., Kavetski, D., and Lambert, M.: A strategy
for diagnosing and interpreting hydrological model nonstationarity, Water
Resour. Res., 50, 5090–5113, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014719, 2014.
Wijngaard, R. R., Lutz, A. F., Nepal, S., Khanal, S., Pradhananga, S.,
Shrestha, A. B., and Immerzeel, W. W.: Future changes in hydro-climatic
extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins, PLoS One,
12, e0190224, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0190224, 2017.
Short summary
This study assesses the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic developments on the future water gap for the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins until the end of the 21st century. The results show that despite projected increases in surface water availability, the strong socio-economic development and associated increase in water demand will likely lead to an increase in the water gap, indicating that socio-economic changes will be the key driver in the evolving water gap.
This study assesses the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic developments on...
Special issue