Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-73-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-73-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Jan 2016
Research article |
| 15 Jan 2016
A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process
Civil & Environmental Engineering Department, Tufts
University, 200 College Avenue, Medford, MA 02155, USA
K. Portney
Bush School of Government & Public Service, Texas
A&M University, 4220 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843, USA
S. Islam
Civil & Environmental Engineering Department, Tufts
University, 200 College Avenue, Medford, MA 02155, USA
The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts
University, 160 Packard Avenue, Medford, MA 02155, USA
Related authors
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Doris E. Wendt, John P. Bloomfield, Anne F. Van Loon, Margaret Garcia, Benedikt Heudorfer, Joshua Larsen, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3113–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Managing water demand and supply during droughts is complex, as highly pressured human–water systems can overuse water sources to maintain water supply. We evaluated the impact of drought policies on water resources using a socio-hydrological model. For a range of hydrogeological conditions, we found that integrated drought policies reduce baseflow and groundwater droughts most if extra surface water is imported, reducing the pressure on water resources during droughts.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Doris E. Wendt, John P. Bloomfield, Anne F. Van Loon, Margaret Garcia, Benedikt Heudorfer, Joshua Larsen, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3113–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Managing water demand and supply during droughts is complex, as highly pressured human–water systems can overuse water sources to maintain water supply. We evaluated the impact of drought policies on water resources using a socio-hydrological model. For a range of hydrogeological conditions, we found that integrated drought policies reduce baseflow and groundwater droughts most if extra surface water is imported, reducing the pressure on water resources during droughts.
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited data availability using hydrological modelling and Earth observation: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Drought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain
Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
Probabilistic modelling of the inherent field-level pesticide pollution risk in a small drinking water catchment using spatial Bayesian belief networks
Are maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?
Historical simulation of maize water footprints with a new global gridded crop model ACEA
Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream water availability in the transboundary Indus Basin
Identifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water use
Optimizing a backscatter forward operator using Sentinel-1 data over irrigated land
Robustness of a parsimonious subsurface drainage model at the French national scale
Spatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi system
Delineation of dew formation zones in Iran using long-term model simulations and cluster analysis
Streamflow estimation at partially gaged sites using multiple-dependence conditions via vine copulas
Water resources management and dynamic changes in water politics in the transboundary river basins of Central Asia
Assessing interannual variability in nitrogen sourcing and retention through hybrid Bayesian watershed modeling
Minimizing the impact of vacating instream storage of a multi-reservoir system: a trade-off study of water supply and empty flushing
Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption
Signatures of human intervention – or not? Downstream intensification of hydrological drought along a large Central Asian river: the individual roles of climate variability and land use change
Field-scale soil moisture bridges the spatial-scale gap between drought monitoring and agricultural yields
Socio-hydrologic modeling of the dynamics of cooperation in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong River
Multi-level storylines for participatory modeling – involving marginalized communities in Tz'olöj Ya', Mayan Guatemala
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden
Impact of the quality of hydrological forecasts on the management and revenue of hydroelectric reservoirs – a conceptual approach
A novel causal structure-based framework for comparing a basin-wide water–energy–food–ecology nexus applied to the data-limited Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins
Projection of irrigation water demand based on the simulation of synthetic crop coefficients and climate change
Comparative analysis of kernel-based versus ANN and deep learning methods in monthly reference evapotranspiration estimation
Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK
From skill to value: isolating the influence of end user behavior on seasonal forecast assessment
The value of citizen science for flood risk reduction: cost–benefit analysis of a citizen observatory in the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment
Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin
Interplay of changing irrigation technologies and water reuse: example from the upper Snake River basin, Idaho, USA
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Kerr J. Adams, Christopher A. J. Macleod, Marc J. Metzger, Nicola Melville, Rachel C. Helliwell, Jim Pritchard, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2205–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-19, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modelling and Earth observation, we find that useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2–5 BCM) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to the higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need more 3 to 5 years to complete filling.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles and Christian L. E. Franzke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pesticides continue to pose a threat to surface water quality worldwide. Here, we present a spatial Bayesian belief network (BBN) for assessing inherent pesticide risk to water quality. The BBN was applied in a small catchment with limited data to simulate the risk of five pesticides and evaluate the likely effectiveness of mitigation measures. The probabilistic graphical model combines diverse data and explicitly accounts for uncertainties, which are often ignored in pesticide risk assessments.
Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Christen Duus Børgesen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, and Dennis Trolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how the spatial nitrate reduction in the subsurface may shift under changing climate and land use conditions. This change is investigated by comparing maps showing the spatial nitrate reduction in an agricultural catchment for current conditions, with maps generated for future projected climate and land use conditions. Results show that future climate flow paths may shift the catchment reduction noticeably, while implications of land use changes were less substantial.
Oleksandr Mialyk, Joep F. Schyns, Martijn J. Booij, and Rick J. Hogeboom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 923–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As the global demand for crops is increasing, it is vital to understand spatial and temporal patterns of crop water footprints (WFs). Previous studies looked into spatial patterns but not into temporal ones. Here, we present a new process-based gridded crop model to simulate WFs and apply it for maize in 1986–2016. We show that despite the average unit WF reduction (−35 %), the global WF of maize production has increased (+50 %), which might harm ecosystems and human livelihoods in some regions.
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
Yaogeng Tan, Zengchuan Dong, Sandra M. Guzman, Xinkui Wang, and Wei Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6495–6522, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The rapid increase in economic development and urbanization is contributing to the imbalances and conflicts between water supply and demand and further deteriorates river ecological health, which intensifies their interactions and causes water unsustainability. This paper proposes a methodology for sustainable development of water resources, considering socioeconomic development, food safety, and ecological protection, and the dynamic interactions across those water users are further assessed.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Alexis Jeantet, Hocine Henine, Cédric Chaumont, Lila Collet, Guillaume Thirel, and Julien Tournebize
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5447–5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrological subsurface drainage model SIDRA-RU is assessed at the French national scale, using a unique database representing the large majority of the French drained areas. The model is evaluated following its capacity to simulate the drainage discharge variability and the annual drained water balance. Eventually, the temporal robustness of SIDRA-RU is assessed to demonstrate the utility of this model as a long-term management tool.
Nariman Mahmoodi, Jens Kiesel, Paul D. Wagner, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5065–5081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assessed the sustainability of water resources in a wadi region with the help of a hydrologic model. Our assessment showed that the increases in groundwater demand and consumption exacerbate the negative impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alteration. These alterations have severe consequences for a downstream wetland and its ecosystem. The approach may be applicable in other wadi regions with different climate and water use systems.
Nahid Atashi, Dariush Rahimi, Victoria A. Sinclair, Martha A. Zaidan, Anton Rusanen, Henri Vuollekoski, Markku Kulmala, Timo Vesala, and Tareq Hussein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4719–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
Kuk-Hyun Ahn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4319–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a multiple-dependence model for estimating streamflow at partially gaged sites. The evaluations are conducted on a case study of the eastern USA and show that the proposed model is suited for infilling missing values. The performance is further evaluated with six other infilling models. Results demonstrate that the proposed model produces more reliable streamflow estimates than the other approaches. The model can be applicable to other hydro-climatological variables.
Xuanxuan Wang, Yaning Chen, Zhi Li, Gonghuan Fang, Fei Wang, and Haichao Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3281–3299, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The growing water crisis in Central Asia and the complex water politics of the region's transboundary rivers are a hot topic for research, while the dynamic changes of water politics in Central Asia have yet to be studied in depth. Based on the Gini coefficient, water political events and social network analysis, we analyzed the matching degree between water and socio-economic elements and the dynamics of hydropolitics in transboundary river basins of Central Asia.
Jonathan W. Miller, Kimia Karimi, Arumugam Sankarasubramanian, and Daniel R. Obenour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2789–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2789-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Within a watershed, nutrient export can vary greatly over time and space. In this study, we develop a model to leverage over 30 years of streamflow, precipitation, and nutrient sampling data to characterize nitrogen export from various livestock and land use types across a range of precipitation conditions. Modeling results reveal that urban lands developed before 1980 have remarkably high levels of nitrogen export, while agricultural export is most responsive to precipitation.
Chia-Wen Wu, Frederick N.-F. Chou, and Fong-Zuo Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2063–2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2063-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2063-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper promotes the feasibility of emptying instream storage through joint operation of multiple reservoirs. The trade-off between water supply and emptying reservoir storage and alleviating impacts on downstream environment are thoroughly discussed. Operation of reservoirs is optimized to calibrate the optimal parameters defining the activation and termination of emptying reservoir. The optimized strategy limits the water shortage and maximizes the expected benefits of emptying reservoir.
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a combined data analysis and modeling study in the transboundary Helmand River basin, we analyzed spatial patterns of drought and changes therein based on the drought indices as well as on absolute water deficits. Overall the results illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to human intervention.
Noemi Vergopolan, Sitian Xiong, Lyndon Estes, Niko Wanders, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Eric F. Wood, Megan Konar, Kelly Caylor, Hylke E. Beck, Nicolas Gatti, Tom Evans, and Justin Sheffield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1827-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1827-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Drought monitoring and yield prediction often rely on coarse-scale hydroclimate data or (infrequent) vegetation indexes that do not always indicate the conditions farmers face in the field. Consequently, decision-making based on these indices can often be disconnected from the farmer reality. Our study focuses on smallholder farming systems in data-sparse developing countries, and it shows how field-scale soil moisture can leverage and improve crop yield prediction and drought impact assessment.
You Lu, Fuqiang Tian, Liying Guo, Iolanda Borzì, Rupesh Patil, Jing Wei, Dengfeng Liu, Yongping Wei, David J. Yu, and Murugesu Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1883–1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The upstream countries in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong basin build dams for hydropower, while downstream ones gain irrigation and fishery benefits. Dam operation changes the seasonality of runoff downstream, resulting in their concerns. Upstream countries may cooperate and change their regulations of dams to gain indirect political benefits. The socio-hydrological model couples hydrology, reservoir, economy, and cooperation and reproduces the phenomena, providing a useful model framework.
Jessica A. Bou Nassar, Julien J. Malard, Jan F. Adamowski, Marco Ramírez Ramírez, Wietske Medema, and Héctor Tuy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1283–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our research suggests a method that facilitates the inclusion of marginalized stakeholders in model-building activities to address problems in water resources. Our case study showed that knowledge produced by typically excluded stakeholders had significant and unique contributions to the outcome of the process. Moreover, our method facilitated the identification of relationships between societal, economic, and hydrological factors, and it fostered collaborations across different communities.
Marc Girons Lopez, Louise Crochemore, and Ilias G. Pechlivanidis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1189–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Swedish hydrological warning service is extending its use of seasonal forecasts, which requires an analysis of the available methods. We evaluate the simple ESP method and find out how and why forecasts vary in time and space. We find that forecasts are useful up to 3 months into the future, especially during winter and in northern Sweden. They tend to be good in slow-reacting catchments and bad in flashy and highly regulated ones. We finally link them with areas of similar behaviour.
Manon Cassagnole, Maria-Helena Ramos, Ioanna Zalachori, Guillaume Thirel, Rémy Garçon, Joël Gailhard, and Thomas Ouillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1033–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1033-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1033-2021, 2021
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Hongwei Zheng, Chunbo Chen, Olaf Hellwich, Jie Bai, Tie Liu, Shuang Liu, Jie Xue, Peng Cai, Huili He, Friday Uchenna Ochege, Tim Van de Voorde, and Philippe de Maeyer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 901–925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-901-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-901-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Some river basins are considered to be very similar because they have a similar background such as a transboundary, facing threats of human activities. But we still lack understanding of differences under their general similarities. Therefore, we proposed a framework based on a Bayesian network to group watersheds based on similarity levels and compare the causal and systematic differences within the group. We applied it to the Amu and Syr Darya River basin and discussed its universality.
Michel Le Page, Younes Fakir, Lionel Jarlan, Aaron Boone, Brahim Berjamy, Saïd Khabba, and Mehrez Zribi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 637–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-637-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the context of major changes, the southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges with low and continuously decreasing water resources mainly attributed to agricultural use. A method for projecting irrigation water demand under both anthropogenic and climatic changes is proposed. Time series of satellite imagery are used to determine a set of semiempirical equations that can be easily adapted to different future scenarios.
Mohammad Taghi Sattari, Halit Apaydin, Shahab S. Band, Amir Mosavi, and Ramendra Prasad
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 603–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-603-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of study is to estimate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) amount with artificial intelligence using minimum meteorological parameters in the Corum region, which is an agricultural center of Turkey. Kernel-based GPR and SVR and BFGS-ANN and LSTM models were used to estimate ET0 amounts in 10 different combinations. The results show that all four methods used predicted ET0 amounts at acceptable accuracy and error levels. The BFGS-ANN model showed higher success than the others.
Andres Peñuela, Christopher Hutton, and Francesca Pianosi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6059–6073, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6059-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we evaluate the potential use of seasonal weather forecasts to improve reservoir operation in a UK water supply system. We found that the use of seasonal forecasts can improve the efficiency of reservoir operation but only if the forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered. We also found the degree of efficiency improvement is strongly affected by the decision maker priorities and the hydrological conditions.
Matteo Giuliani, Louise Crochemore, Ilias Pechlivanidis, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5891–5902, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5891-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper aims at quantifying the value of hydroclimatic forecasts in terms of potential economic benefit to end users in the Lake Como basin (Italy), which allows the inference of a relation between gains in forecast skill and gains in end user profit. We also explore the sensitivity of this benefit to both the forecast system setup and end user behavioral factors, showing that the estimated forecast value is potentially undermined by different levels of end user risk aversion.
Michele Ferri, Uta Wehn, Linda See, Martina Monego, and Steffen Fritz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5781–5798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5781-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5781-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the flood risk management strategy of the
Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment (Italy), a citizen observatory for flood risk management is currently being implemented. A cost–benefit analysis of the citizen observatory was undertaken to demonstrate the value of this approach in monetary terms. Results show a reduction in avoided damage of 45 % compared to a scenario without implementation of the citizen observatory. The idea is to promote this methodology for future flood risk management.
Sara Suárez-Almiñana, Abel Solera, Jaime Madrigal, Joaquín Andreu, and Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5297–5315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5297-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work responds to the need for an effective methodology that integrates climate change projections into water planning and management to guide complex basin decision-making. This general approach is based on a model chain for management and drought risk assessments and applied to the Júcar River basin (Spain), showing a worrying deterioration of the basin's future water resources availability and drought indicators, despite a considerable uncertainty of results from the mid-century onwards.
Shan Zuidema, Danielle Grogan, Alexander Prusevich, Richard Lammers, Sarah Gilmore, and Paula Williams
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5231–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5231-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5231-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In our case study we find that increasing the efficiency of irrigation technology will have unintended consequences like reducing water available for aquifer replenishment or for other irrigators. The amount of water needed to stabilize regional aquifers exceeds the amount that could be saved by improving irrigation efficiency. Since users depend upon local groundwater storage, which is more sensitive to management decisions than river flow, comanagement of surface and groundwater is critical.
Cited articles
Abrishamchi, A. and Tajrishi, M.: Inter-basin water transfer in Iran, in: Water
Conservation, Reuse, and Recycling, Proceeding of an Iranian American
workshop, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 252–271, 2005.
Arocha, J. F., Patel, V. L., and Patel, Y. C.: Hypothesis generation and the
coordination of theory and evidence in novice diagnostic reasoning, Med.
Decis. Making, 13, 198–211, 1993.
Baldassare, M. and Katz, C.: The personal threat of environmental problems as
predictor of environmental practices, Environ. Behav., 24, 602–616, 1992.
BBC Research: Public Opinions, Attitudes, and Awareness Regarding Water in
Colorado, Final Report Prepared for the Colorado Water Conservation Board,
available at: https://doi.org/http://www.bbcresearch.com/images/Final_Report_072213_web.pdf
(last access: 1 July 2015), 2013.
Beven, K.: Towards a coherent philosophy for modelling the environment, P.
Roy. Soc. A, 458, 2465–2484, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2002.0986, 2002.
Blair, P. and Buytaert, W.: Modelling socio-hydrological systems: a review of concepts,
approaches and applications, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 12, 8761–8851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-8761-2015, 2015.
Blöschl, G. and Sivapalan, M.: Scale issues in hydrological modelling:
a review, Hydrol. Process., 9, 251–290, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360090305, 1995.
Bower, B. T., Hufschmidt, M. M., and Reedy, W. W.: Operating procedures:
their role in the design of water-resources systems by simulation analyses,
in: Design of Water-Resource Systems, Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge, MA, 443–458, 1962.
Brezonik, P. L. and Stadelmann, T. H.: Analysis and predictive models of
stormwater runoff volumes, loads, and pollutant concentrations from
watersheds in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, Minnesota, USA, Water Res.,
36, 1743–1757, 2002.
Campbell, H. E., Johnson, R. M., and Larson, E. H.: Prices, devices, people,
or rules: the relative effectiveness of policy instruments in water
conservation, Rev. Policy Res., 21, 637–662, 2004.
Cancelliere, A., Ancarani, A., and Rossi, G.: Susceptibility of water supply
reservoirs to drought conditions, J. Hydrol. Eng., 3, 140–148, 1998.
Chong, H. and Sunding, D.: Water markets and trading, Annu. Rev. Env.
Resour., 31, 239–264, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.31.020105.100323, 2006.
Crow, D. A.: Policy Entrepreneurs, Issue Experts, and Water Rights Policy
Change in Colorado, Rev. Policy Research, 27, 299–315,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-1338.2010.00443.x, 2010.
Dalhuisen, J. M., Florax, R. J. G. M., de Groot, H. L. F., and Nijkamp, P.:
Price and Income Elasticities of Residential Water Demand: A Meta-Analysis,
Land Econ., 79, 292–308, https://doi.org/10.2307/3146872, 2003.
Dawadi, S. and Ahmad, S.: Evaluating the impact of demand-side management
on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing
population, J. Environ. Manage., 114, 261–75,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.015, 2013.
Denver Water: Long-range Planning, available at:
https://doi.org/http://www.denverwater.org/SupplyPlanning/Planning/,
last access: 1 July, 2015.
Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Salinas, J. L., and Blöschl, G.:
Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,
17, 3295–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013, 2013.
Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Yan, K., Brandimarte,
L., and Blöschl, G.: Debates–Perspectives on socio-hydrology:
Capturing feedbacks between physical and social processes, Water Resour.
Res., 51, WR016416, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016416, 2015.
Draper, A. J. and Lund, J. R.: Optimal hedging and carryover storage
value, J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE, 130, 83–87, 2004.
Elshafei, Y., Sivapalan, M., Tonts, M., and Hipsey, M. R.: A prototype framework
for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation
approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2141–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2141-2014, 2014.
Elshafei, Y., Coletti, J. Z., Sivapalan, M., and Hipsey, M. R.: A model of
the socio-hydrologic dynamics in a semiarid catchment: Isolating feedbacks
in the coupled human-hydrology system, Water Resour. Res., 6, WR017048,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017048, 2015.
Falkenmark, M.: Water and mankind – complex system of mutual interaction, Ambio, 6, 3–9, 1977.
Fielding, K. S., Russell, S., Spinks, A., and Mankad, A.: Determinants of
household water conservation: the role of demographic, infrastructure,
behavior, and psychosocial variables, Water Resour. Res., 48, W10510,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012398, 2012.
Forrester, J. W.: Policies, decisions, and information sources for modeling,
Eur. J. Oper. Res., 59, 42–63, 1992.
Frick, J., Kaiser, F. G., and Wilson, M.: Environmental knowledge and
conservation behavior: exploring prevalence and structure in a representative
sample, Pers. Indiv. Differ., 37, 1597–1613, 2004.
Gal, S.: Optimal management of a multireservoir water supply system, Water.
Resour. Res., 15, 737–749, 1979.
Geller, E. S., Erickson, J. B., and Buttram, B. A.: Attempts to promote
residential water conservation with educational, behavioral and engineering
strategies, Popul. Environ., 6, 96–112, 1983.
Giacomoni, M. H., Kanta, L., and Zechman, E. M.: Complex adaptive systems
approach to simulate the sustainability of water resources and
urbanization, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 139, 554–564, 2013.
Gleick, P. H.: A Look at Twenty-first Century Water Resources Development,
Water Int., 25, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060008686804, 2000.
Gober, P. and Wheater, H. S.: Debates–Perspectives on socio-hydrology:
Modeling flood risk as a public policy problem, Water Resour. Res., 51,
WR016945, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR016945, 2015.
Gober, P., White, D. D., Quay, R., Sampson, D. A., and Kirkwood, C. W.:
Socio-hydrology modelling for an uncertain future, with examples from the
USA and Canada, Geol. Soc. Spec. Publ., 408, SP408-2, 2014.
Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J. R., and Loucks, D. P.: Reliability, resiliency,
and vulnerability criteria for water resource system evaluation, Water
Resour. Res., 18, 14–20, 1982.
Hale, R. L., Armstrong, A., Baker, M. A., Bedingfield, S., Betts, D.,
Buahin, C., Buchert, M., Crowl, T., Dupont, R. R., Ehleringer, J.R,
Endter-Wada, J., Flint, C., Grant, J., Hinners, S., Jeffery, S.,
Jackson-Smith, D., Jones, A. S., Licon, C., and Null, S. E.: iSAW:
integrating structure, actors, and water to study socio-hydro-ecological
systems, Earth's Future, 110–132, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000295, 2015.
Hinkel, J., Schleuter, M., and Cox, M.: A diagnostic procedure for applying
the social–ecological systems framework in diverse cases, Ecol. Soc., 20,
32, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07023-200132, 2015.
Hughes, S., Pincetl, S., and Boone, C.: Triple exposure: regulatory,
climatic, and political drivers of water management changes in the city of
Los Angeles, Cities, 32, 51–59, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2013.02.007, 2013.
Inman, D. and Jeffrey, P.: A review of residential water conservation tool
performance and influences on implementation effectiveness, Urban Water J.,
3, 127–143, 2006.
ISTPP: National Public Water Survey, Institute for Science, Technology and
Public Policy, Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A & M
University, College Station, TX, 2013.
Jones, B. D. and Baumgartner, F. R.: The Politics of Attention, University of
Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, 2005.
Jones, A., Seville, D., and Meadows, D.: Resource sustainability in
commodity systems: the sawmill industry in the Northern Forest, Syst. Dynam.
Rev., 18, 171–204, https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.238, 2002.
Kandasamy, J., Sounthararajah, D., Sivabalan, P., Chanan, A., Vigneswaran, S., and
Sivapalan, M.: Socio-hydrologic drivers of the pendulum swing between agricultural
development and environmental health: a case study from Murrumbidgee River basin,
Australia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1027–1041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1027-2014, 2014.
Kanta, L. and Zechman, E.: Complex adaptive systems framework to assess
supply-side and demand-side management for urban water resources, J. Water
Res. Pl.-ASCE, 140, 75–85, 2014.
Kenney, D. S., Goemans, C., Klein, R., Lowrey, J., and Reidy, K.:
Residential water demand management: Lessons from Aurora, Colorado, J. Am.
Water Resour. As., 44, 192–207, 2008.
Kuhn, T. S.: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 3rd Edn.,
University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1996.
LADWP – Los Angeles Department of Water and Power: Urban Water Management
Plan 2010, Los Angeles, CA, 2010.
Lélé, S. and Norgaard, R. B.: Practicing Interdisciplinarity,
BioScience, 55, 967-975, https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0967:PI]2.0.CO;2,
2005.
Liu, Y., Tian, F., Hu, H., and Sivapalan, M.: Socio-hydrologic perspectives of
the co-evolution of humans and water in the Tarim River basin, Western China:
the Taiji-Tire model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1289–1303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1289-2014, 2014.
Loucks, D. P.: Debates–Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Simulating
hydrologic-human interactions, Water Resour. Res., 51, WR017002,
10.1002/2015WR017002, 2015.
Mankad, A. and Tapsuwan, S.: Review of socio-economic drivers of community
acceptance and adoption of decentralised water systems, J. Environ. Manage.,
92, 380–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.10.037, 2011.
McConnell, W. J., Millington, J. D. A., Reo, N. J., Alberti, M., Asbjornsen,
H., Baker, L. A., Brozović, N., Drinkwater, L. E., Scott, A., Fragoso,
J., Holland, D. S., Jantz, C. A., Kohler, T. A., Herbert, D., Maschner, G.,
Monticino, M., Podestá, G., Pontius, R. G., Redman, C. L., Sailor, D.,
Urquhart, G., and Liu, J.: Research on Coupled Human and Natural Systems
(CHANS): Approach, Challenges, and Strategies, B. Ecol.
Soc. Am., Meeting Reports, 218–228, 2009.
McGinnis, M.: Networks of adjacent action situations in polycentric
governance, Policy Stud. J., 39, 51–78,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0072.2010.00396.x/full, 2011.
McGinnis, M.: An Introduction to IAD and the Language of the Ostrom
Workshop: A Simple Guide to a Complex Framework, Policy Stud. J., 39,
169–183, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0072.2010.00401.x, 2011b.
McGinnis, M. D. and Ostrom, E.: Social-ecological system framework:
initial changes and continuing challenges, Ecol. Soc., 19, 30, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06387-190230, 2014.
Micklin, P.: The aral sea disaster, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 35, 47–72,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.35.031306.140120, 2007.
Mini, C., Hogue, T. S., and Pincetl, S.: Patterns and controlling factors of
residential water use in Los Angeles, California, Water Policy, 16, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2014.029, 2014.
MWRA – Massachusetts Water Resources Authority: Summary of MWRA Demand
Management Program, available at: https://doi.org/http://www.mwra.state.ma.us/harbor/pdf/demandreport03.pdf
(last access: 1 July 2015), 2003.
Olmstead, S. M. and Stavins, R. N.: Comparing price and nonprice approaches
to urban water conservation, Water Resour. Res., 45, W04301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007227, 2009.
Ostrom, E.: A diagnostic approach for going beyond panaceas, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 104, 15181–15187, 2007.
Ostrom, E.: A general framework for analyzing sustainability of
social-ecological systems, Science, 325, 419–422,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172133, 2009.
Ostrom, E.: Background on the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework,
Policy Stud. J., 39, 7–27, 2011.
Pahl-Wostl, C., Craps, M., Dewulf, A., Mostert, E., Tabara, D., and
Taillieu, T.: Social Learning and Water Resources Management, Ecol. Soc.,
12, 5, 2007.
Pahl-Wostl, C., Holtz, G., Kastens, B., and Knieper, C.: Analyzing complex
water governance regimes: the Management and Transition Framework, Environ.
Sci. Policy, 13, 571–581, 2010.
Padowski, J. C. and Jawitz, J. W.: Water availability and vulnerability of
225 large cities in the United States, Water Resour Res, 48, W12529, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012335, 2012.
Pande, S. and Ertsen, M.: Endogenous change: on cooperation and water
availability in two ancient societies, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1745–1760, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1745-2014, 2014.
Schlager, E. and Heikkila, T.: Left High and Dry? Climate Change,
Common-Pool Resource Theory, and the Adaptability of Western Water Compacts,
Public Admin. Rev., 71, 461–470, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2011.02367.x,
2011.
Schlüter, M., Hinkel, J., Bots, P., and Arlinghaus, R.: Application of
the SES framework for model-based analysis of the dynamics of
social–ecological systems, Ecol. Soc., 19, 36, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05782-190136, 2014.
Schuetze, T. and Santiago-Fandiño, V.: Quantitative assessment of water
use efficiency in urban and domestic buildings, Water, 5, 1172–1193, 2013.
Shih, J. and Revelle, C.: Water-supply operations during drought: continuous
hedging rule, J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE, 120, 613–629, 1994.
Sivapalan, M.: Debates–Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Changing water
systems and the “tyranny of small problems”–Socio-hydrology, Water
Resour. Res., 51, WR017080, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017080, 2015.
Sivapalan, M. and Blöschl, G.: Time scale interactions and the
coevolution of humans and water, Water Resour. Res., 51, WR017896,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017896, 2015.
Sivapalan, M., Blöschl, G., Zhang, L., and Vertessy, R.: Downward approach to
hydrological prediction, Hydrol. Process., 17, 2101–2111,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1425, 2003.
Sivapalan, M., Savenije, H. H. G., and Blöschl, G.: Socio-hydrology: A
new science of people and water, Hydrol. Process., 26, 1270–1276, 2012.
SNWA – Southern Nevada Water Authority: Water Resources Management Plan,
available at: https://doi.org/http://www.snwa.com/assets/pdf/wr_plan.pdf (last access: 1 July 2015), 2009.
Srinivasan, V., Gorelick, S. M., and Goulder, L.: Sustainable urban water
supply in south India: desalination, efficiency improvement, or rainwater
harvesting?, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10504, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008698, 2010.
Srinivasan, V., Seto, K. C., Emerson, R., and Gorelick, S. M.: The impact
of urbanization on water vulnerability: A coupled human–environment system
approach for Chennai, India, Global Environ. Chang., 23, 229–239,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.002, 2013.
Srinivasan, V.: Reimagining the past – use of counterfactual trajectories in
socio-hydrological modelling: the case of Chennai, India, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,
19, 785–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-785-2015, 2015.
Stave, K. A.: A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of
water management options in Las Vegas, Nevada, J. Environ. Manage., 67,
303–313, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4797(02)00205-0, 2003.
Sterman, J.: Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex
World, Irwin McGraw-Hill, Boston, 2000.
Thompson, S. E., Sivapalan, M., Harman, C. J., Srinivasan, V., Hipsey, M. R.,
Reed, P., Montanari, A., and Blöschl, G.: Developing predictive insight
into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the
Anthropocene, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013–5039,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5013-2013, 2013.
Tong, S. T. and Chen, W.: Modeling the relationship between land use and
surface water quality, J. Environ. Manage., 66, 377–393, 2002.
Troy, T. J., Pavao-Zuckerman, M., and Evans, T. P.: Debates–Perspectives
on socio-hydrology: Socio-hydrologic modeling: Tradeoffs, hypothesis
testing, and validation, Water Resour. Res., 51, WR017046,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017046, 2015.
Turral, H.: Hydro-Logic? Reform in Water Resources Management in Developed
Countries with Major Agricultural Water Use – Lessons for Developing
Nations, Overseas Development Institute, London, 1998.
Vahmani, P. and Hogue, T. S.: Incorporating an urban irrigation module into
the Noah Land surface model coupled with an urban canopy model, J.
Hydrometeorol., 15, 1440–1456, 2014.
van Emmerik, T. H. M., Li, Z., Sivapalan, M., Pande, S., Kandasamy, J., Savenije, H. H. G.,
Chanan, A., and Vigneswaran, S.: Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the
competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health:
Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4239–4259,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4239-2014, 2014.
Viglione, A., Di Baldassarre, G., Brandimarte, L., Kuil, L., Carr, G.,
Salinas, J. L., Scolobig, A., and Blöschl, G.: Insights from
socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk – roles of collective
memory, risk-taking attitude and trust, J. Hydrol., 518, 71–82,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.018, 2014.
Vörösmarty, C. J., McIntyre, P. B., Gessner, M. O., Dudgeon, D.,
Prusevich, A., Green, P., Glidden, S., Bunn, S. E., Sullivan, C. A.,
Lierman, C. R., and Davies, P. M.: Global threats to human water security and
river biodiversity, Nature, 467, 555–561, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09549, 2010.
Wagener, T., Sivapalan, M., Troch, P. A., McGlynn, B. L., Harman, C. J.,
Gupta, H. V., and Wilson, J. S.: The future of hydrology: an evolving science for
a changing world, Water Resour. Res, 46, W05301, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008906, 2010.
Wheater, H. S., Jakeman, A. J., and Beven, K. J.: Progress and directions in
rainfall–runoff modeling, in: Modeling Change in Environmental Systems, John
Wiley and Sons, New York, 101–132, 1993.
Willis, R. M., Stewart, R. A., Panuwatwanich, K., Williams, P. R., and
Hollingsworth, A. L.: Quantifying the influence of environmental and water
conservation attitudes on household end use water consumption, J. Environ.
Manage., 92, 1996–2009, 2011.
Wissmar, R. C., Timm, R. K., and Logsdon, M. G.: Effects of changing forest
and impervious land covers on discharge characteristics of watersheds,
Environ. Manage., 34, 91–98, 2004.
You, J. Y. and Cai, X.: Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 1.
A theoretical analysis, Water Resour. Res., 44, 1–9, 2008.
Young, P., Parkinson, S., and Lees, M.: Simplicity out of complexity in
environmental modelling: Occam's razor revisited, J. Appl. Stat., 23,
165–210, https://doi.org/10.1080/02664769624206, 1996.
Young, P.: Top-down and data-based mechanistic modelling of rainfall–flow
dynamics at the catchment scale, Hydrol. Process., 17, 2195–2217,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1328, 2003.
Zilberman, D., Dinar, A., MacDougall, N., Khanna, M., Brown, C., and Castillo,
F.: Individual and institutional responses to the drought: The case of
California agriculture. ERS Staff Paper, US Department of Agriculture,
Washington, DC, 1992.
Short summary
The paper, entitled "A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process", presents a new process for developing conceptual models of coupled socio-hydrological systems. This modeling process is demonstrated by developing a model of a hypothetical system based on a hypothesis linking per capita water demand changes to supply reliability. The resulting model illustrates both the modeling process and the relevance of the hypothesis for reservoir operations policy.
The paper, entitled "A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process", presents a new...
