Articles | Volume 27, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
15 May 2023
Review article |
| 15 May 2023
| 15 May 2023
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Louise J. Slater
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Louise Arnal
Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Canmore, Canada
Marie-Amélie Boucher
Department of Civil Engineering, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Canada
Annie Y.-Y. Chang
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Simon Moulds
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Conor Murphy
Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Kildare, Ireland
Grey Nearing
Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA
Guy Shalev
Google Research, Tel Aviv, Israel
Chaopeng Shen
Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA
Linda Speight
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Gabriele Villarini
IIHR – Hydroscience and Engineering, University of Iowa, IA, USA
Robert L. Wilby
Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
Andrew Wood
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, CO, USA
Massimiliano Zappa
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3589–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3589-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3589-2018, 2018
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Wouter J. M. Knoben, Ashwin Raman, Gaby J. Gründemann, Mukesh Kumar, Alain Pietroniro, Chaopeng Shen, Yalan Song, Cyril Thébault, Katie van Werkhoven, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
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Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, Sönke Dangendorf, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1557, 2025
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Compound flooding occurs when multiple drivers, such as heavy rain and storm surge, occur simultaneously. Comprehensive compound flood risk assessments require simulating a many storm events using flood models, but such historical data are limited. To address this, we developed a statistical framework to generate large numbers of synthetic yet realistic storm events for use in flood modeling.
Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Grey Nearing, Deborah Cohen, and Oren Gilon
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Marit van Tiel, Matthias Huss, Massimiliano Zappa, Tobias Jonas, and Daniel Farinotti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-404, 2025
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Ryan S. Padrón, Massimiliano Zappa, Luzi Bernhard, and Konrad Bogner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1685-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1685-2025, 2025
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Raoul Alexandre Collenteur, Konrad Bogner, Christian Moeck, Massimiliano Zappa, and Mario Schirmer
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 9, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-5-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-5-2025, 2025
Mohammad Sina Jahangir, John Quilty, Chaopeng Shen, Andrea Scott, Scott Steinschneider, and Jan Adamowski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-846, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Mozhgan A. Farahani, Andrew W. Wood, Guoqiang Tang, and Naoki Mizukami
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-38, 2025
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Peijun Li, Yalan Song, Ming Pan, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-483, 2025
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Mari R. Tye, Ming Ge, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ethan D. Gutmann, Allyson Rugg, Cindy L. Bruyère, Sue Ellen Haupt, Flavio Lehner, Rachel McCrary, Andrew J. Newman, and Andy Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1117–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, 2025
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Basil Kraft, Michael Schirmer, William H. Aeberhard, Massimiliano Zappa, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1061–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, 2025
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Ather Abbas, Yuan Yang, Ming Pan, Yves Tramblay, Chaopeng Shen, Haoyu Ji, Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Florian Pappenberger, Jong Cheol Pyo, Dapeng Feng, George Huffman, Phu Nguyen, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Tan Jackson, and Hylke E. Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4194, 2025
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Our study evaluated 23 precipitation datasets using a hydrological model at global scale to assess their suitability and accuracy. We found that MSWEP V2.8 excels due to its ability to integrate data from multiple sources, while others, such as IMERG and JRA-3Q, demonstrated strong regional performances. This research assists in selecting the appropriate dataset for applications in water resource management, hazard assessment, agriculture, and environmental monitoring.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin G. De Kauwe, Samuel Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig R. Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
Biogeosciences, 21, 5517–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, 2024
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This paper evaluates land models – computer-based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics; land carbon, water, and energy cycles; and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning and AI approaches to show that, despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
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When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Claudia Färber, Henning Plessow, Simon Mischel, Frederik Kratzert, Nans Addor, Guy Shalev, and Ulrich Looser
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-427, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-427, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Large-sample datasets are essential in hydrological science to support modelling studies and advance process understanding. Caravan is a community initiative to create a large-sample hydrology dataset of meteorological forcing data, catchment attributes, and discharge data for catchments around the world. This dataset is a subset of hydrological discharge data and station-based watersheds from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), which are covered by an open data policy.
Shahzad Gani, Louise Arnal, Lucy Beattie, John Hillier, Sam Illingworth, Tiziana Lanza, Solmaz Mohadjer, Karoliina Pulkkinen, Heidi Roop, Iain Stewart, Kirsten von Elverfeldt, and Stephanie Zihms
Geosci. Commun., 7, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-251-2024, 2024
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Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7629–7643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, 2024
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Dapeng Feng, Hylke Beck, Jens de Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Yusuke Satoh, Yoshihide Wada, Jiangtao Liu, Ming Pan, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7181–7198, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7181-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7181-2024, 2024
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Accurate hydrologic modeling is vital to characterizing water cycle responses to climate change. For the first time at this scale, we use differentiable physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models to simulate rainfall–runoff processes for 3753 basins around the world and compare them with purely data-driven and traditional modeling approaches. This sets a benchmark for hydrologic estimates around the world and builds foundations for improving global hydrologic simulations.
Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024, 2024
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Recently, a special type of neural-network architecture became increasingly popular in hydrology literature. However, in most applications, this model was applied as a one-to-one replacement for hydrology models without adapting or rethinking the experimental setup. In this opinion paper, we show how this is almost always a bad decision and how using these kinds of models requires the use of large-sample hydrology data sets.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
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Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Andreas Auer, Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Grey Nearing, Sepp Hochreiter, and Daniel Klotz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4099–4126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4099-2024, 2024
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This work examines the impact of temporal and spatial information on the uncertainty estimation of streamflow forecasts. The study emphasizes the importance of data updates and global information for precise uncertainty estimates. We use conformal prediction to show that recent data enhance the estimates, even if only available infrequently. Local data yield reasonable average estimations but fall short for peak-flow events. The use of global data significantly improves these predictions.
Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Grey Nearing, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3665–3673, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3665-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3665-2024, 2024
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The evaluation of model performance is essential for hydrological modeling. Using performance criteria requires a deep understanding of their properties. We focus on a counterintuitive aspect of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and show that if we divide the data into multiple parts, the overall performance can be higher than all the evaluations of the subsets. Although this follows from the definition of the NSE, the resulting behavior can have unintended consequences in practice.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
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Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Julian Leyland, Simon J. Dadson, Sagy Cohen, Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Philip J. Ashworth, Georgina L. Bennett, Richard Boothroyd, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Helen Griffith, Richard Hardy, Laurence Hawker, Stuart McLelland, Jeffrey Neal, Andrew Nicholas, Andrew J. Tatem, Ellie Vahidi, Yinxue Liu, Justin Sheffield, Daniel R. Parsons, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, 2024
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This study evaluated six high-resolution global precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling. MSWEP and ERA5 showed better performance, but spatial variability was high. The findings highlight the importance of careful dataset selection for river discharge modelling due to the lack of a universally superior dataset. Further improvements in global precipitation data products are needed.
Yalan Song, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Martyn P. Clark, Dapeng Feng, Kathryn Lawson, Kamlesh Sawadekar, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3051–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3051-2024, 2024
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Differentiable models (DMs) integrate neural networks and physical equations for accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge discovery. We developed an adjoint-based DM for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for hydrological modeling, reducing distorted fluxes and physical parameters from errors in models that use explicit and operation-splitting schemes. With a better numerical scheme and improved structure, the adjoint-based DM matches or surpasses long short-term memory (LSTM) performance.
Michael Margreth, Florian Lustenberger, Dorothea Hug Peter, Fritz Schlunegger, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-78, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
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Recession models (RM) are crucial for observing the low flow behavior of a catchment. We developed two novel RM, which are designed to represent slowly draining catchment conditions. With a newly designed low flow prediction procedure we tested the prediction capability of these two models and three others from literature. One of our novel products delivered the best results, because it best represents the slowly draining catchment conditions.
Peter Reichert, Kai Ma, Marvin Höge, Fabrizio Fenicia, Marco Baity-Jesi, Dapeng Feng, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2505–2529, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2505-2024, 2024
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We compared the predicted change in catchment outlet discharge to precipitation and temperature change for conceptual and machine learning hydrological models. We found that machine learning models, despite providing excellent fit and prediction capabilities, can be unreliable regarding the prediction of the effect of temperature change for low-elevation catchments. This indicates the need for caution when applying them for the prediction of the effect of climate change.
Marcus Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2081–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, 2024
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Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in the spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study, we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology, when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Bailey J. Anderson, Manuela I. Brunner, Louise J. Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1567–1583, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1567-2024, 2024
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Elasticityrefers to how much the amount of water in a river changes with precipitation. We usually calculate this using average streamflow values; however, the amount of water within rivers is also dependent on stored water sources. Here, we look at how elasticity varies across the streamflow distribution and show that not only do low and high streamflows respond differently to precipitation change, but also these differences vary with water storage availability.
Conrad Wasko, Seth Westra, Rory Nathan, Acacia Pepler, Timothy H. Raupach, Andrew Dowdy, Fiona Johnson, Michelle Ho, Kathleen L. McInnes, Doerte Jakob, Jason Evans, Gabriele Villarini, and Hayley J. Fowler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1251–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1251-2024, 2024
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In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of infrastructure design and emergency response planning, but design flood estimation guidance under climate change is still in its infancy. We perform the first published systematic review of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation and conduct a meta-analysis to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes in extreme rainfall.
Guoqiang Tang, Andrew W. Wood, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, and Simon Michael Papalexiou
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1153–1173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1153-2024, 2024
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Ensemble geophysical datasets are crucial for understanding uncertainties and supporting probabilistic estimation/prediction. However, open-access tools for creating these datasets are limited. We have developed the Python-based Geospatial Probabilistic Estimation Package (GPEP). Through several experiments, we demonstrate GPEP's ability to estimate precipitation, temperature, and snow water equivalent. GPEP will be a useful tool to support uncertainty analysis in Earth science applications.
Marvin Höge, Martina Kauzlaric, Rosi Siber, Ursula Schönenberger, Pascal Horton, Jan Schwanbeck, Marius Günter Floriancic, Daniel Viviroli, Sibylle Wilhelm, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Nans Addor, Manuela Brunner, Sandra Pool, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5755–5784, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5755-2023, 2023
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CAMELS-CH is an open large-sample hydro-meteorological data set that covers 331 catchments in hydrologic Switzerland from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2020. It comprises (a) daily data of river discharge and water level as well as meteorologic variables like precipitation and temperature; (b) yearly glacier and land cover data; (c) static attributes of, e.g, topography or human impact; and (d) catchment delineations. CAMELS-CH enables water and climate research and modeling at catchment level.
Jiabo Yin, Louise J. Slater, Abdou Khouakhi, Le Yu, Pan Liu, Fupeng Li, Yadu Pokhrel, and Pierre Gentine
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5597–5615, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5597-2023, 2023
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This study presents long-term (i.e., 1940–2022) and high-resolution (i.e., 0.25°) monthly time series of TWS anomalies over the global land surface. The reconstruction is achieved by using a set of machine learning models with a large number of predictors, including climatic and hydrological variables, land use/land cover data, and vegetation indicators (e.g., leaf area index). Our proposed GTWS-MLrec performs overall as well as, or is more reliable than, previous TWS datasets.
Valérie Jean, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Anissa Frini, and Dominic Roussel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3351–3373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023, 2023
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Flood forecasts are only useful if they are understood correctly. They are also uncertain, and it is difficult to present all of the information about the forecast and its uncertainty on a map, as it is three dimensional (water depth and extent, in all directions). To overcome this, we interviewed 139 people to understand their preferences in terms of forecast visualization. We propose simple and effective ways of presenting flood forecast maps so that they can be understood and useful.
Doaa Aboelyazeed, Chonggang Xu, Forrest M. Hoffman, Jiangtao Liu, Alex W. Jones, Chris Rackauckas, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2671–2692, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2671-2023, 2023
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Photosynthesis is critical for life and has been affected by the changing climate. Many parameters come into play while modeling, but traditional calibration approaches face many issues. Our framework trains coupled neural networks to provide parameters to a photosynthesis model. Using big data, we independently found parameter values that were correlated with those in the literature while giving higher correlation and reduced biases in photosynthesis rates.
Dapeng Feng, Hylke Beck, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2357–2373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2357-2023, 2023
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Powerful hybrid models (called δ or delta models) embrace the fundamental learning capability of AI and can also explain the physical processes. Here we test their performance when applied to regions not in the training data. δ models rivaled the accuracy of state-of-the-art AI models under the data-dense scenario and even surpassed them for the data-sparse one. They generalize well due to the physical structure included. δ models could be ideal candidates for global hydrologic assessment.
Jiangtao Liu, David Hughes, Farshid Rahmani, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1553–1567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1553-2023, 2023
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Under-monitored regions like Africa need high-quality soil moisture predictions to help with food production, but it is not clear if soil moisture processes are similar enough around the world for data-driven models to maintain accuracy. We present a deep-learning-based soil moisture model that learns from both in situ data and satellite data and performs better than satellite products at the global scale. These results help us apply our model globally while better understanding its limitations.
Katherine Dooley, Ciaran Kelly, Natascha Seifert, Therese Myslinski, Sophie O'Kelly, Rushna Siraj, Ciara Crosby, Jack Kevin Dunne, Kate McCauley, James Donoghue, Eoin Gaddren, Daniel Conway, Jordan Cooney, Niamh McCarthy, Eoin Cullen, Simon Noone, Conor Murphy, and Peter Thorne
Clim. Past, 19, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1-2023, 2023
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The highest currently recognised air temperature (33.3 °C) ever recorded in the Republic of Ireland was logged at Kilkenny Castle in 1887. This paper reassesses the plausibility of the record using various methods such as inter-station reassessment and 20CRv3 reanalysis. As a result, Boora 1976 at 32.5 °C is presented as a more reliable high-temperature record for the Republic of Ireland. The final decision however rests with the national meteorological service, Met Éireann.
Grey S. Nearing, Daniel Klotz, Jonathan M. Frame, Martin Gauch, Oren Gilon, Frederik Kratzert, Alden Keefe Sampson, Guy Shalev, and Sella Nevo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5493–5513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5493-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5493-2022, 2022
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When designing flood forecasting models, it is necessary to use all available data to achieve the most accurate predictions possible. This manuscript explores two basic ways of ingesting near-real-time streamflow data into machine learning streamflow models. The point we want to make is that when working in the context of machine learning (instead of traditional hydrology models that are based on
bio-geophysics), it is not necessary to use complex statistical methods for injecting sparse data.
Louise J. Slater, Chris Huntingford, Richard F. Pywell, John W. Redhead, and Elizabeth J. Kendon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1377–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, 2022
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This work considers how wheat yields are affected by weather conditions during the three main wheat growth stages in the UK. Impacts are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages. Future climate projections are beneficial for wheat yields, on average, but indicate a high risk of unseen weather conditions which farmers may struggle to adapt to and mitigate against.
Jean Odry, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Simon Lachance-Cloutier, Richard Turcotte, and Pierre-Yves St-Louis
The Cryosphere, 16, 3489–3506, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3489-2022, 2022
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The research deals with the assimilation of in-situ local snow observations in a large-scale spatialized snow modeling framework over the province of Quebec (eastern Canada). The methodology is based on proposing multiple spatialized snow scenarios using the snow model and weighting them according to the available observations. The paper especially focuses on the spatial coherence of the snow scenario proposed in the framework.
Sella Nevo, Efrat Morin, Adi Gerzi Rosenthal, Asher Metzger, Chen Barshai, Dana Weitzner, Dafi Voloshin, Frederik Kratzert, Gal Elidan, Gideon Dror, Gregory Begelman, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Hila Noga, Ira Shavitt, Liora Yuklea, Moriah Royz, Niv Giladi, Nofar Peled Levi, Ofir Reich, Oren Gilon, Ronnie Maor, Shahar Timnat, Tal Shechter, Vladimir Anisimov, Yotam Gigi, Yuval Levin, Zach Moshe, Zvika Ben-Haim, Avinatan Hassidim, and Yossi Matias
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4013–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4013-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4013-2022, 2022
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Early flood warnings are one of the most effective tools to save lives and goods. Machine learning (ML) models can improve flood prediction accuracy but their use in operational frameworks is limited. The paper presents a flood warning system, operational in India and Bangladesh, that uses ML models for forecasting river stage and flood inundation maps and discusses the models' performances. In 2021, more than 100 million flood alerts were sent to people near rivers over an area of 470 000 km2.
Jonathan M. Frame, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Guy Shalev, Oren Gilon, Logan M. Qualls, Hoshin V. Gupta, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3377–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3377-2022, 2022
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The most accurate rainfall–runoff predictions are currently based on deep learning. There is a concern among hydrologists that deep learning models may not be reliable in extrapolation or for predicting extreme events. This study tests that hypothesis. The deep learning models remained relatively accurate in predicting extreme events compared with traditional models, even when extreme events were not included in the training set.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3079–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, 2022
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Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Mirianna Budimir, Alison Sneddon, Issy Nelder, Sarah Brown, Amy Donovan, and Linda Speight
Geosci. Commun., 5, 151–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-151-2022, 2022
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This paper extracts key learning from two case studies (India and Mozambique), outlining solutions and approaches to challenges in developing forecast products. These lessons and solutions can be used by forecasters and practitioners to support the development of useful, appropriate, and co-designed forecast information for institutional decision-makers to support more effective early action in advance of disasters.
Samuel O. Awe, Martin Mahony, Edley Michaud, Conor Murphy, Simon J. Noone, Victor K. C. Venema, Thomas G. Thorne, and Peter W. Thorne
Clim. Past, 18, 793–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, 2022
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We unearth and analyse 2 decades of highly valuable measurements made on Mauritius at the Royal Alfred Observatory, where several distinct thermometer combinations were in use and compared, at the turn of the 20th century. This series provides unique insights into biases in early instrumental temperature records. Differences are substantial and for some instruments exhibit strong seasonality. This reinforces the critical importance of understanding early instrumental series biases.
Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Martin Gauch, Alden Keefe Sampson, Johannes Brandstetter, Günter Klambauer, Sepp Hochreiter, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1673–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1673-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1673-2022, 2022
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This contribution evaluates distributional runoff predictions from deep-learning-based approaches. We propose a benchmarking setup and establish four strong baselines. The results show that accurate, precise, and reliable uncertainty estimation can be achieved with deep learning.
Jing Xu, François Anctil, and Marie-Amélie Boucher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1001–1017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1001-2022, 2022
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The performance of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is compared with a conventional post-processing method of affine kernel dressing. NSGA-II showed its superiority in improving the forecast skill and communicating trade-offs with end-users. It allows the enhancement of the forecast quality since it allows for setting multiple specific objectives from scratch. This flexibility should be considered as a reason to implement hydrologic ensemble prediction systems (H-EPSs).
Manuela I. Brunner and Louise J. Slater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 469–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022, 2022
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Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme flood events. We demonstrate that such ensemble pooling produces more robust estimates than observation-based estimates.
Thomas Lees, Marcus Buechel, Bailey Anderson, Louise Slater, Steven Reece, Gemma Coxon, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5517–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, 2021
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We used deep learning (DL) models to simulate the amount of water moving through a river channel (discharge) based on the rainfall, temperature and potential evaporation in the previous days. We tested the DL models on catchments across Great Britain finding that the model can accurately simulate hydrological systems across a variety of catchment conditions. Ultimately, the model struggled most in areas where there is chalky bedrock and where human influence on the catchment is large.
Hadush Meresa, Conor Murphy, Rowan Fealy, and Saeed Golian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5237–5257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, 2021
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The assessment of future impacts of climate change is associated with a cascade of uncertainty linked to the modelling chain employed in assessing local-scale changes. Understanding and quantifying this cascade is essential for developing effective adaptation actions. We find that not only do the contributions of different sources of uncertainty vary by catchment, but that the dominant sources of uncertainty can be very different on a catchment-by-catchment basis.
Vincent Vionnet, Colleen Mortimer, Mike Brady, Louise Arnal, and Ross Brown
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4603–4619, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4603-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4603-2021, 2021
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Water equivalent of snow cover (SWE) is a key variable for water management, hydrological forecasting and climate monitoring. A new Canadian SWE dataset (CanSWE) is presented in this paper. It compiles data collected by multiple agencies and companies at more than 2500 different locations across Canada over the period 1928–2020. Snow depth and derived bulk snow density are also included when available.
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
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We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Guoqiang Tang, Martyn P. Clark, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, Dominique Brunet, and Paul H. Whitfield
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 3337–3362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3337-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3337-2021, 2021
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Probabilistic estimates are useful to quantify the uncertainties in meteorological datasets. This study develops the Ensemble Meteorological Dataset for North America (EMDNA). EMDNA has 100 members with daily precipitation amount, mean daily temperature, and daily temperature range at 0.1° spatial resolution from 1979 to 2018. It is expected to be useful for hydrological and meteorological applications in North America.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
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Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Konstantin F. F. Ntokas, Jean Odry, Marie-Amélie Boucher, and Camille Garnaud
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3017–3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3017-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3017-2021, 2021
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This article shows a conversion model of snow depth into snow water equivalent (SWE) using an ensemble of artificial neural networks. The novelty is a direct estimation of SWE and the improvement of the estimation by in-depth analysis of network structures. The usage of an ensemble allows a probabilistic estimation and, therefore, a deeper insight. It is a follow-up study of a similar study over Quebec but extends it to the whole area of Canada and improves it further.
Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Sepp Hochreiter, and Grey S. Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2685–2703, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021, 2021
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We investigate how deep learning models use different meteorological data sets in the task of (regional) rainfall–runoff modeling. We show that performance can be significantly improved when using different data products as input and further show how the model learns to combine those meteorological input differently across time and space. The results are carefully benchmarked against classical approaches, showing the supremacy of the presented approach.
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021
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Compound hot and dry events can lead to severe impacts whose severity may depend on their timescale and spatial extent. Here, we show that the spatial extent and timescale of compound hot–dry events are strongly related, spatial compound event extents are largest at
sub-seasonal timescales, and short events are driven more by high temperatures, while longer events are more driven by low precipitation. Future climate impact studies should therefore be performed at different timescales.
Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Grey Nearing, Jimmy Lin, and Sepp Hochreiter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2045–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2045-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2045-2021, 2021
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We present multi-timescale Short-Term Memory (MTS-LSTM), a machine learning approach that predicts discharge at multiple timescales within one model. MTS-LSTM is significantly more accurate than the US National Water Model and computationally more efficient than an individual LSTM model per timescale. Further, MTS-LSTM can process different input variables at different timescales, which is important as the lead time of meteorological forecasts often depends on their temporal resolution.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 105–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021, 2021
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Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and regional aspects of flooding. In this paper we investigate how such characteristics are represented by hydrologic models. Our results show that both the modeling of local and regional flood characteristics are challenging, especially under changing climate conditions.
Elham Rouholahnejad Freund, Massimiliano Zappa, and James W. Kirchner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5015–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5015-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5015-2020, 2020
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Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest flux from the land to the atmosphere and thus contributes to Earth's energy and water balance. Due to its impact on atmospheric dynamics, ET is a key driver of droughts and heatwaves. In this paper, we demonstrate how averaging over land surface heterogeneity contributes to substantial overestimates of ET fluxes. We also demonstrate how one can correct for the effects of small-scale heterogeneity without explicitly representing it in land surface models.
Guoqiang Tang, Martyn P. Clark, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Vincent Vionnet, and Paul H. Whitfield
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2381–2409, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2381-2020, 2020
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Station observations are critical for hydrological and meteorological studies, but they often contain missing values and have short measurement periods. This study developed a serially complete dataset for North America (SCDNA) from 1979 to 2018 for 27 276 precipitation and temperature stations. SCDNA is built on multiple data sources and infilling/reconstruction strategies to achieve high-quality estimates which can be used for a variety of applications.
Louise Arnal, Liz Anspoks, Susan Manson, Jessica Neumann, Tim Norton, Elisabeth Stephens, Louise Wolfenden, and Hannah Louise Cloke
Geosci. Commun., 3, 203–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020, 2020
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The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for flood risk management in England, is moving towards the use of probabilistic river flood forecasts. By showing the likelihood of future floods, they can allow earlier anticipation. But making decisions on probabilistic information is complex and interviews with EA decision-makers highlight the practical challenges and opportunities of this transition. We make recommendations to support a successful transition for flood early warning in England.
Manuela I. Brunner, Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew J. Newman, Andrew W. Wood, and Martyn P. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3951–3966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3951-2020, 2020
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Streamflow seasonality is changing and expected to further change under the influence of climate change. We here assess how annual streamflow hydrographs will change in future by using a newly developed classification scheme. Our comparison of future with current annual hydrograph classes shows that robust changes are expected only for currently melt-influenced regions in the Rocky Mountains. These upstream changes may require the adaptation of management strategies in downstream regions.
Marco Dal Molin, Mario Schirmer, Massimiliano Zappa, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1319–1345, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1319-2020, 2020
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
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We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Matthias J. R. Speich, Massimiliano Zappa, Marc Scherstjanoi, and Heike Lischke
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 537–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-537-2020, 2020
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Climate change is expected to substantially affect natural processes, and simulation models are a valuable tool to anticipate these changes. In this study, we combine two existing models that each describe one aspect of the environment: forest dynamics and the terrestrial water cycle. The coupled model better described observed patterns in vegetation structure. We also found that including the effect of water availability on tree height and rooting depth improved the model.
Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Guy Shalev, Günter Klambauer, Sepp Hochreiter, and Grey Nearing
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5089–5110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5089-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5089-2019, 2019
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A new approach for regional rainfall–runoff modeling using long short-term memory (LSTM)-based models is presented and benchmarked against a range of well-known hydrological models. The approach significantly outperforms regionally calibrated hydrological models but also basin-wise calibrated models. Furthermore, we propose an adaption of the LSTM that allows us to extract the learned catchment understanding of the model and show that it matches our hydrology expert knowledge.
Manuela I. Brunner, Daniel Farinotti, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4471–4489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4471-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4471-2019, 2019
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River flow regimes are expected to change and so are extreme flow regimes. We propose two methods for estimating extreme flow regimes and show on a data set from Switzerland how these extreme regimes are expected to change. Our results show that changes in low- and high-flow regimes are distinct for rainfall- and melt-dominated regions. Our findings provide guidance in water resource planning and management.
Manuela I. Brunner, Katharina Liechti, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2311–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, 2019
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The 2018 drought event had severe ecological, economic, and social impacts. How extreme was it in Switzerland? We addressed this question by looking at different types of drought, including meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and groundwater drought, and at the two characteristics deficit and deficit duration. The return period estimates depended on the region, variable, and return period considered.
Louise J. Slater, Guillaume Thirel, Shaun Harrigan, Olivier Delaigue, Alexander Hurley, Abdou Khouakhi, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Claudia Vitolo, and Katie Smith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2939–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, 2019
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This paper explores the benefits and advantages of R's usage in hydrology. We provide an overview of a typical hydrological workflow based on reproducible principles and packages for retrieval of hydro-meteorological data, spatial analysis, hydrological modelling, statistics, and the design of static and dynamic visualizations and documents. We discuss some of the challenges that arise when using R in hydrology as well as a roadmap for R’s future within the discipline.
Amirhossein Mazrooei, A. Sankarasubramanian, and Andrew W. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-288, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-288, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Reliable long-range hydrologic forecasts (e.g. month-ahead streamflow conditions) greatly help to facilitate water resources management. Toward this, climate forecasts are utilized to implement hydrologic models, with past hydrologic simulations used to initialize the land-surface conditions of models. Since there are uncertainties associated with the simulated conditions, Data Assimilation (DA) techniques can be employed to reduce such errors and consequently improve hydrologic forecasting.
Naoki Mizukami, Oldrich Rakovec, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, Andrew W. Wood, Hoshin V. Gupta, and Rohini Kumar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2601–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2601-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2601-2019, 2019
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We find that Nash–Sutcliffe (NSE)-based model calibrations result in poor reproduction of high-flow events, such as the annual peak flows that are used for flood frequency estimation. The use of Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) results in annual peak flow estimates that are better than from NSE, with only a slight degradation in performance with respect to other related metrics.
Samuel Monhart, Massimiliano Zappa, Christoph Spirig, Christoph Schär, and Konrad Bogner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-493-2019, 2019
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Subseasonal streamflow forecasts have received increasing attention during the past decade, but their performance in alpine catchments is still largely unknown. We analyse the effect of a statistical correction technique applied to the driving meteorological forecasts on the performance of the resulting streamflow forecasts. The study shows the benefits of such hydrometeorological ensemble prediction systems and highlights the importance of snow-related processes for subseasonal predictions.
John K. Hillier, Geoffrey R. Saville, Mike J. Smith, Alister J. Scott, Emma K. Raven, Jonathon Gascoigne, Louise J. Slater, Nevil Quinn, Andreas Tsanakas, Claire Souch, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Neil Macdonald, Alice M. Milner, Jennifer Loxton, Rebecca Wilebore, Alexandra Collins, Colin MacKechnie, Jaqui Tweddle, Sarah Moller, MacKenzie Dove, Harry Langford, and Jim Craig
Geosci. Commun., 2, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, 2019
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Worldwide there is intense interest in converting research excellence in universities into commercial success, but there has been scant attention devoted to exactly how individual scientists' workload and incentive structures may be a key barrier to this. Our work reveals the real challenge posed by a time-constrained university culture, better describes how work with business might fit into an academic job, and gives tips on working together in an
user guidefor scientists and (re)insurers.
Manuel Antonetti, Christoph Horat, Ioannis V. Sideris, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 19–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-19-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-19-2019, 2019
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To predict timing and magnitude peak run-off, meteorological and calibrated hydrological models are commonly coupled. A flash-flood forecasting chain is presented based on a process-based run-off generation module with no need for calibration. This chain has been evaluated using data for the Emme catchment (Switzerland). The outcomes of this study show that operational flash predictions in ungauged basins can benefit from the use of information on run-off processes.
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Jessica L. Neumann, Louise Arnal, Rebecca E. Emerton, Helen Griffith, Stuart Hyslop, Sofia Theofanidi, and Hannah L. Cloke
Geosci. Commun., 1, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018, 2018
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Seasonal hydrological forecasts (SHF) can predict floods, droughts, and water use in the coming months, but little is known about how SHF are used for decision-making. We asked 11 water sector participants what decisions they would make when faced with a possible flood event in 6 weeks' time. Flood forecasters and groundwater hydrologists responded to the flood risk more than water supply managers. SHF need to be tailored for use and communicated more clearly if they are to aid decision-making.
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Chaopeng Shen, Eric Laloy, Amin Elshorbagy, Adrian Albert, Jerad Bales, Fi-John Chang, Sangram Ganguly, Kuo-Lin Hsu, Daniel Kifer, Zheng Fang, Kuai Fang, Dongfeng Li, Xiaodong Li, and Wen-Ping Tsai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5639–5656, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5639-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5639-2018, 2018
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Recently, deep learning (DL) has emerged as a revolutionary tool for transforming industries and scientific disciplines. We argue that DL can offer a complementary avenue toward advancing hydrology. New methods are being developed to interpret the knowledge learned by deep networks. We argue that open competitions, integrating DL and process-based models, more data sharing, data collection from citizen scientists, and improved education will be needed to incubate advances in hydrology.
Peter Stucki, Moritz Bandhauer, Ulla Heikkilä, Ole Rössler, Massimiliano Zappa, Lucas Pfister, Melanie Salvisberg, Paul Froidevaux, Olivia Martius, Luca Panziera, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2717–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2717-2018, 2018
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A catastrophic flood south of the Alps in 1868 is assessed using documents and the earliest example of high-resolution weather simulation. Simulated weather dynamics agree well with observations and damage reports. Simulated peak water levels are biased. Low forest cover did not cause the flood, but such a paradigm was used to justify afforestation. Supported by historical methods, such numerical simulations allow weather events from past centuries to be used for modern hazard and risk analyses.
Manuel Antonetti and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4425–4447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4425-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4425-2018, 2018
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We developed 60 modelling chain combinations based on either experimentalists' (bottom-up) or modellers' (top-down) thinking and forced them with data of increasing accuracy. Results showed that the differences in performance arising from the forcing data were due to compensation effects. We also found that modellers' and experimentalists' concept of
model realismdiffers, and the level of detail a model should have to reproduce the processes expected must be agreed in advance.
Rebecca Emerton, Ervin Zsoter, Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Davide Muraro, Christel Prudhomme, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Peter Salamon, and Florian Pappenberger
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3327–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018, 2018
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Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications from agriculture to disaster risk reduction. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance. This paper introduces GloFAS-Seasonal, the first operational global-scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system producing openly available forecasts of high and low river flow out to 4 months ahead.
Matthias J. R. Speich, Heike Lischke, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4097–4124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4097-2018, 2018
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To simulate the water balance of, e.g., a forest plot, it is important to estimate the maximum volume of water available to plants. This depends on soil properties and the average depth of roots. Rooting depth has proven challenging to estimate. Here, we applied a model assuming that plants dimension their roots to optimize their carbon budget. We compared its results with values obtained by calibrating a dynamic water balance model. In most cases, there is good agreement between both methods.
Stefanie R. Lutz, Andrea Popp, Tim van Emmerik, Tom Gleeson, Liz Kalaugher, Karsten Möbius, Tonie Mudde, Brett Walton, Rolf Hut, Hubert Savenije, Louise J. Slater, Anna Solcerova, Cathelijne R. Stoof, and Matthias Zink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3589–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3589-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3589-2018, 2018
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Media play a key role in the communication between scientists and the general public. However, the interaction between scientists and journalists is not always straightforward. In this opinion paper, we present insights from hydrologists and journalists into the benefits, aftermath and potential pitfalls of science–media interaction. We aim to encourage scientists to participate in the diverse and evolving media landscape, and we call on the scientific community to support scientists who do so.
Christoph Horat, Manuel Antonetti, Katharina Liechti, Pirmin Kaufmann, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-119, 2018
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
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Two forecasting chains are forced by information from numerical weather predictions. The framework presented in the companion paper by Antonetti et al. has been set up for the Swiss Verzasca basin. The forecasts obtained with the uncalibrated RGM-PRO model are compared to forecasts yielded by the calibrated PREVAH-HRU model. Results shows that the uncalibrated model is able to compete with the calibrated operational prediction system and was consistently superior for
high-flow situations.
Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christel Prudhomme, Jessica Neumann, Blazej Krzeminski, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018
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This paper presents a new operational forecasting system (driven by atmospheric forecasts), predicting river flow in European rivers for the next 7 months. For the first month only, these river flow forecasts are, on average, better than predictions that do not make use of atmospheric forecasts. Overall, this forecasting system can predict whether abnormally high or low river flows will occur in the next 7 months in many parts of Europe, and could be valuable for various applications.
Conor Murphy, Ciaran Broderick, Timothy P. Burt, Mary Curley, Catriona Duffy, Julia Hall, Shaun Harrigan, Tom K. R. Matthews, Neil Macdonald, Gerard McCarthy, Mark P. McCarthy, Donal Mullan, Simon Noone, Timothy J. Osborn, Ciara Ryan, John Sweeney, Peter W. Thorne, Seamus Walsh, and Robert L. Wilby
Clim. Past, 14, 413–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018, 2018
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This work reconstructs a continuous 305-year rainfall record for Ireland. The series reveals remarkable variability in decadal rainfall – far in excess of the typical period of digitised data. Notably, the series sheds light on exceptionally wet winters in the 1730s and wet summers in the 1750s. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate both locally and across Europe.
Love Råman Vinnå, Alfred Wüest, Massimiliano Zappa, Gabriel Fink, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 31–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, 2018
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Responses of inland waters to climate change vary on global and regional scales. Shifts in river discharge regimes act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing water temperature. The extent of this effect on warming is controlled by the change in river discharge and lake hydraulic residence time. A shift of deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter can potentially counteract the otherwise negative climate effects on deep-water oxygen content.
Cameron Wobus, Ethan Gutmann, Russell Jones, Matthew Rissing, Naoki Mizukami, Mark Lorie, Hardee Mahoney, Andrew W. Wood, David Mills, and Jeremy Martinich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2199–2211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2199-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2199-2017, 2017
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We linked modeled changes in the frequency of historical 100-year flood events to a national inventory of built assets within mapped floodplains of the United States. This allowed us to project changes in inland flooding damages nationwide under two alternative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our results suggest that more aggressive GHG reductions could reduce the projected monetary damages from inland flooding, potentially saving billions of dollars annually by the end of the century.
Rachel Bazile, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Luc Perreault, and Robert Leconte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747–5762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017, 2017
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Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability farther in time. However, some end users need proof that climate model outputs are ready to be implemented operationally. We show that bias correction is crucial for the use of ECMWF System4 forecasts for the studied area and there is a potential for the use of 1-month-ahead forecasts. Beyond this, forecast performance is equivalent to using past climatology series as inputs to the hydrological model.
Konrad Bogner, Katharina Liechti, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5493–5502, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, 2017
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The enhanced availability of many different weather prediction systems nowadays makes it very difficult for flood and water resource managers to choose the most reliable and accurate forecast. In order to circumvent this problem of choice, different approaches for combining this information have been applied at the Sihl River (CH) and the results have been verified. The outcome of this study highlights the importance of forecast combination in order to improve the quality of forecast systems.
Pablo A. Mendoza, Andrew W. Wood, Elizabeth Clark, Eric Rothwell, Martyn P. Clark, Bart Nijssen, Levi D. Brekke, and Jeffrey R. Arnold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3915–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017, 2017
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Water supply forecasts are critical to support water resources operations and planning. The skill of such forecasts depends on our knowledge of (i) future meteorological conditions and (ii) the amount of water stored in a basin. We address this problem by testing several approaches that make use of these sources of predictability, either separately or in a combined fashion. The main goal is to understand the marginal benefits of both information and methodological complexity in forecast skill.
Martyn P. Clark, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Luis Samaniego, Ross A. Woods, Remko Uijlenhoet, Katrina E. Bennett, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Xitian Cai, Andrew W. Wood, and Christa D. Peters-Lidard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3427–3440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3427-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3427-2017, 2017
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The diversity in hydrologic models has led to controversy surrounding the “correct” approach to hydrologic modeling. In this paper we revisit key modeling challenges on requirements to (1) define suitable model equations, (2) define adequate model parameters, and (3) cope with limitations in computing power. We outline the historical modeling challenges, summarize modeling advances that address these challenges, and define outstanding research needs.
Fiona J. Clubb, Simon M. Mudd, David T. Milodowski, Declan A. Valters, Louise J. Slater, Martin D. Hurst, and Ajay B. Limaye
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 369–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-369-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-369-2017, 2017
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Floodplains and fluvial terraces can provide information about current and past river systems, helping to reveal how channels respond to changes in both climate and tectonics. We present a new method of identifying these features objectively from digital elevation models by analysing their slope and elevation compared to the modern river. We test our method in eight field sites, and find that it provides rapid and reliable extraction of floodplains and terraces across a range of landscapes.
Simon Matte, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Vincent Boucher, and Thomas-Charles Fortier Filion
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2967–2986, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2967-2017, 2017
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In this study we set the basis of an alternative framework to replace the popular cost-loss ratio for the economic assessment of flood forecasting systems. The C-L ratio implicitly considers the decision maker to be risk-neutral, whereas it is rarely the case in real-life emergency situations. Instead of the cost-loss ratio, we propose using a utility function. We show that the decision-maker’s level of risk aversion is a crucial factor in the assessment of the economic value of flood forecasts.
Chengcheng Huang, Andrew J. Newman, Martyn P. Clark, Andrew W. Wood, and Xiaogu Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 635–650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-635-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-635-2017, 2017
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This study examined the potential of snow water equivalent data assimilation to improve seasonal streamflow predictions. We examined aspects of the data assimilation system over basins with varying climates across the western US. We found that varying how the data assimilation system is implemented impacts forecast performance, and basins with good initial calibrations see less benefit. This implies that basin-specific configurations and benefits should be expected given this modeling system.
Daniel Green, Dapeng Yu, Ian Pattison, Robert Wilby, Lee Bosher, Ramila Patel, Philip Thompson, Keith Trowell, Julia Draycon, Martin Halse, Lili Yang, and Tim Ryley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, 2017
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This paper demonstrates a novel method of evaluating emergency responder accessibility at the city scale during fluvial and surface water flood events of varying magnitudes. Results suggest that surface water flood events within the city of Leicester, UK, may cause more disruption to emergency responders when compared to fluvial flood events of the same magnitude. This study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during flood events.
Simon Parry, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, and Paul J. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, 2016
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This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK between 1883 and 2013. The approach detects 459 events that vary in space and time. This large dataset allows individual events to be compared with others in the historical record. The ability to objectively appraise contemporary events against the historical record has not previously been possible, and may allow water managers to prepare for a range of outcomes at the end of a drought.
Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, 2016
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Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.
Manuel Antonetti, Rahel Buss, Simon Scherrer, Michael Margreth, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2929–2945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2929-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2929-2016, 2016
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We evaluated three automatic mapping approaches of dominant runoff processes (DRPs) with different complexity using similarity measures and synthetic runoff simulations. The most complex DRP maps were the most similar to the reference maps. Runoff simulations derived from the simpler DRP maps were more uncertain due to inaccuracies in the input data and rather coarse simplifications in the mapping criteria. It would thus be worthwhile trying to obtain DRP maps that are as realistic as possible.
Lieke Melsen, Adriaan Teuling, Paul Torfs, Massimiliano Zappa, Naoki Mizukami, Martyn Clark, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2207–2226, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2207-2016, 2016
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In this study we investigated the sensitivity of a large-domain hydrological model for spatial and temporal resolution. We evaluated the results on a mesoscale catchment in Switzerland. Our results show that the model was hardly sensitive for the spatial resolution, which implies that spatial variability is likely underestimated. Our results provide a motivation to improve the representation of spatial variability in hydrological models in order to increase their credibility on a smaller scale.
Antoine Thiboult, François Anctil, and Marie-Amélie Boucher
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1809–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1809-2016, 2016
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Issuing a good hydrological forecast is challenging because of the numerous sources of uncertainty that lay in the description of the hydrometeorological processes. Several modeling techniques are investigated in this paper to assess how they contribute to the forecast quality. It is shown that the best modeling approach uses several dissimilar techniques that each tackle one source of uncertainty.
Michal Jenicek, Jan Seibert, Massimiliano Zappa, Maria Staudinger, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 859–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, 2016
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We quantified how long snowmelt affects runoff, and we estimated the sensitivity of catchments to changes in snowpack. This is relevant as the increase of air temperature might cause decreased snow storage. We used time series from 14 catchments in Switzerland. On average, a decrease of maximum snow storage by 10 % caused a decrease of minimum discharge in July by 2 to 9 %. The results showed a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow in alpine catchments compared to pre-alpine catchments.
J. Armstrong, R. Wilby, and R. J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2511–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, 2015
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A criterion to categorise climate change adaptation frameworks is presented denoting characteristics of three key frameworks established in the literature: scenario–led, decision-centric and vulnerability–led. Applying the criterion, the usability of frameworks is examined in coastal Suffolk. Results indicate adaptation frameworks established in the literature are not utilised in isolation in everyday practice. In reality, hybrid approaches are utilised to overcome aspects of framework weakness.
M. Zappa, N. Andres, P. Kienzler, D. Näf-Huber, C. Marti, and M. Oplatka
Proc. IAHS, 370, 235–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-235-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-235-2015, 2015
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The most severe threat for the city of Zürich (Switzerland) are flash-floods from the small Sihl river. An assessment using a rainfall-runoff model evaluated more than 40000 extreme flood scenarios. These scenarios identified deficits for the safety of Zürich. The combination of different structural and flood management measures can lead to an optimal safety also in case of unfavorable initial conditions. Pending questions concern the costs, political decisions and the environmental matters.
M. Zappa, T. Vitvar, A. Rücker, G. Melikadze, L. Bernhard, V. David, M. Jans-Singh, N. Zhukova, and M. Sanda
Proc. IAHS, 369, 25–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-25-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-25-2015, 2015
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A research effort involving Switzerland, Georgia and the Czech Republic has been launched to evaluate the relation between snowpack and summer low flows. Two rainfall-runoff models will simulate over 10 years of snow hydrology and runoff in nested streams. Processes involved will be also evaluated by mean by means of high frequency sampling of the environmental isotopes 18O and 2H. The paper presents first analysis of available datasets of 18O, 2H, discharge, snowpack and modelling experiments.
P. Ronco, M. Bullo, S. Torresan, A. Critto, R. Olschewski, M. Zappa, and A. Marcomini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015, 2015
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The aim of the paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying in the Sihl river valley including the city of Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in an urban area, by means of a calibration process of the methodology to the site-specific context and features.
A. J. Newman, M. P. Clark, K. Sampson, A. Wood, L. E. Hay, A. Bock, R. J. Viger, D. Blodgett, L. Brekke, J. R. Arnold, T. Hopson, and Q. Duan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 209–223, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-209-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-209-2015, 2015
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The focus of this paper is to (1) present a community data set of daily forcing and hydrologic response data for 671 unimpaired basins across the contiguous United States that spans a very wide range of hydroclimatic conditions, and (2) provide a calibrated model performance benchmark using a common conceptual snow and hydrologic modeling system. This benchmark provides a reference level of model performance across a very large basin sample and highlights regional variations in performance.
J. Crossman, M. N. Futter, P. G. Whitehead, E. Stainsby, H. M. Baulch, L. Jin, S. K. Oni, R. L. Wilby, and P. J. Dillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5125–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, 2014
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We projected potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments to a range of future climates. The highly variable responses in streamflow and total phosphorus (TP) were governed by geology and flow pathways, where larger catchment responses were proportional to greater soil clay content. This suggests clay content might be used as an indicator of catchment sensitivity to climate change, and highlights the need for catchment-specific management plans.
W. J. Riley and C. Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2463–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2463-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2463-2014, 2014
S. Harrigan, C. Murphy, J. Hall, R. L. Wilby, and J. Sweeney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1935–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, 2014
S. Jörg-Hess, F. Fundel, T. Jonas, and M. Zappa
The Cryosphere, 8, 471–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-471-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-471-2014, 2014
R. L. Wilby and D. Yu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3937–3955, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3937-2013, 2013
K. Liechti, L. Panziera, U. Germann, and M. Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3853–3869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3853-2013, 2013
F. Fundel, S. Jörg-Hess, and M. Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 395–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-395-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-395-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Probabilistic precipitation downscaling for ungauged mountain sites: a pilot study for the Hindu Kush Himalaya
Implementation of global soil databases in the Noah-MP model and the effects on simulated mean and extreme soil hydrothermal changes
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK flood risk months ahead using a large-sample machine learning model trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Towards a robust hydrologic data assimilation system for hurricane-induced river flow forecasting
Enhanced evaluation of hourly and daily extreme precipitation in Norway from convection-permitting models at regional and local scales
Deep-learning-based sub-seasonal precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasting over the source region of the Yangtze River
High-resolution land surface modelling over Africa: the role of uncertain soil properties in combination with forcing temporal resolution
Investigating the global and regional response of drought to idealized deforestation using multiple global climate models
Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom
Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?
Leveraging a radar-based disdrometer network to develop a probabilistic precipitation phase model in eastern Canada
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over the Central Mediterranean
Saudi Rainfall (SaRa): Hourly 0.1° Gridded Rainfall (1979–Present) for Saudi Arabia via Machine Learning Fusion of Satellite and Model Data
Do land models miss key soil hydrological processes controlling soil moisture memory?
Observation-driven model for calculating water-harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Review of gridded climate products and their use in hydrological analyses reveals overlaps, gaps, and the need for a more objective approach to selecting model forcing datasets
Barriers of urban hydro-meteorological simulation: a review
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell life cycles with a copula-based approach
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Enhanced hydrological modelling with the WRF-Hydro lake/reservoir module at Convection-Permitting scale: a case study of the Tana River basin in East Africa
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Storyline Analytical Framework for Understanding Future Severe Low-Water Episodes and Their Consequences
The role of land-atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and VIC models
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Marc Girona-Mata, Andrew Orr, Martin Widmann, Daniel Bannister, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Scott Hosking, Jesse Norris, David Ocio, Tony Phillips, Jakob Steiner, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3073–3100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3073-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3073-2025, 2025
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We introduce a novel method for improving daily precipitation maps in mountain regions and pilot it across three basins in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). The approach leverages climate model and weather station data, along with statistical or machine learning techniques. Our results show that this approach outperforms traditional methods, especially in remote ungauged areas, suggesting that it could be used to improve precipitation maps across much of the HKH, as well as other mountain regions.
Kazeem Abiodun Ishola, Gerald Mills, Ankur Prabhat Sati, Benjamin Obe, Matthias Demuzere, Deepak Upreti, Gourav Misra, Paul Lewis, Daire Walsh, Tim McCarthy, and Rowan Fealy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2551–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, 2025
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Global soil information introduces uncertainty into models that simulate soil hydrothermal changes. Using the Noah with Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) model with two different global soil datasets, we find under-represented soil properties in wet loam, causing a dry bias in soil moisture. This bias is more pronounced and drought categories are more severe in the SoilGrids dataset. We conclude that models should incorporate detailed, region-specific soil information to minimize model uncertainties.
Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, and Andrew W. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2393–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, 2025
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Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Here, we train and test a machine learning model to predict the monthly maximum daily streamflow up to 4 months ahead. We train the model on precipitation and temperature forecasts to produce probabilistic hindcasts for 579 stations across the UK for the period 2004–2016. We show skilful results up to 4 months ahead in many locations, although, in general, the skill declines with increasing lead time.
Peyman Abbaszadeh, Fatemeh Gholizadeh, Keyhan Gavahi, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2407–2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, 2025
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The Hybrid Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation framework for Environmental Systems (HEAVEN) enhances flood predictions by refining hydrologic models through improved data integration and uncertainty management. Tested in three southeastern US watersheds during hurricanes, HEAVEN assimilates real-time United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, boosting forecast accuracy.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Göktürk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2133–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, 2025
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We compared hourly and daily extreme precipitation across Norway from HARMONIE Climate models at convection-permitting 3 km (HCLIM3) and 12 km (HCLIM12) resolutions. HCLIM3 more accurately captures the extremes in most regions and seasons (except in summer). Its advantages are more pronounced for hourly extremes than for daily extremes. The results highlight the value of convection-permitting models in improving extreme-precipitation predictions and in helping the local society brace for extreme weather.
Ningpeng Dong, Haoran Hao, Mingxiang Yang, Jianhui Wei, Shiqin Xu, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2023–2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, 2025
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Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating extreme weather events, yet current long-term forecast products are often embedded with uncertainties. We develop a deep-learning-based modelling framework to improve 30 d rainfall and streamflow forecasts by combining advanced neural networks and physical models. With the flow forecast error reduced by up to 33 %, the framework has the potential to enhance water management and disaster prevention.
Bamidele Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1659–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, 2025
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We studied how soil and weather data affect land model simulations over Africa. By combining soil data processed in different ways with weather data of varying time intervals, we found that weather inputs had a greater impact on water processes than soil data type. However, the way soil data were processed became crucial when paired with high-frequency weather inputs, showing that detailed weather data can improve local and regional predictions of how water moves and interacts with the land.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
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Deforestation has a significant impact on climate, yet its effects on drought remain less understood. This study investigates how deforestation affects drought across various climate zones and timescales. Findings indicate that deforestation leads to drier conditions in tropical regions and wetter conditions in arid areas, with minimal effects in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term drought, offering valuable insights into vegetation–climate interactions.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1295–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, 2025
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The study provides a detailed characterisation of flash drought in the UK for 1969–2021. The spatio-temporal distribution and trends of flash droughts are highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, while the atmospheric evaporative demand plays a secondary role. We also found that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main circulation pattern controlling flash drought development.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1201–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, 2025
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Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, Julie M. Thériault, Olivier Chalifour, Fanny Payette, Alexandre Vidal, and Daniel F. Nadeau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1135–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, 2025
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Precipitation data from an automated observational network in eastern Canada showed a temperature interval where rain and snow could coexist. Random forest models were developed to classify the precipitation phase using meteorological data to evaluate operational applications. The models demonstrated significantly improved phase classification and reduced error compared to benchmark operational models. However, accurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging.
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Bruno Brunone, Silvia Meniconi, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 925–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, 2025
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This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in the areas of the Central Mediterranean where longer memory timescales are found. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance, and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
Xuetong Wang, Raied S. Alharbi, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Amy Green, Matthew F. McCabe, Yoshihide Wada, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Muhammad A. Abid, and Hylke Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-254, 2025
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Our paper introduces Saudi Rainfall (SaRa), a high-resolution, near real-time rainfall product for the Arabian Peninsula. Using machine learning, SaRa combines multiple satellite and (re)analysis datasets with static predictors, outperforming existing products in the region. With the fast development and continuing growth in water demand over this region, SaRa could help to address water challenges and support resource management.
Mohammad A. Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 547–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, 2025
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Soil moisture memory (SMM) shows how long soil stays moist after rain, impacting climate and ecosystems. Current models often overestimate SMM, causing inaccuracies in evaporation predictions. We enhanced a land model, Noah-MP, to include better water flow and ponding processes, and we tested it against satellite and field data. This improved model reduced overestimations and enhanced short-term predictions, helping create more accurate climate and weather forecasts.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo del Río
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, 2025
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Water resources are fundamental for the social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligate us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting (FH) emerges as a complementary resource in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate FH potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where FH could be a viable water source.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, 2025
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We assess 63 gridded ground (G), satellite (S), and reanalysis (R) climate datasets. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; however, R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, although better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Xuan Chen, Job Augustijn van der Werf, Arjan Droste, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, 2025
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Our research highlights the need to integrate urban land surface and hydrological models to better predict and manage compound climate disasters in cities. We find that inadequate representation of water surfaces, hydraulic systems, and detailed building representations are key areas for improvement in future models. Coupled models show promise but face challenges at regional and neighbourhood scales. Interdisciplinary communication is crucial to enhance urban hydrometeorological simulations.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, 2025
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We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, 2025
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This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
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This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
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Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
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Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
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We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
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Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
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Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Louis-Philippe Caron, Kristelle Audet, Laurent Da Silva, Daniel Tarte, Rachel Parent, Élise Comeau, and Dominic Matte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, 2024
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The 2021 drought in Quebec showcased the province’s potential vulnerability. This study uses a storyline approach to explore impacts of future extreme droughts under +2 °C and +3 °C warming scenarios. By combining regional climate and hydrological simulations, it highlights the potential for severe water deficits. Collaboration with water management experts helped project the impacts of those future extreme droughts and their consequences for ecosystems and human activities.
Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, 2024
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To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” has great value. It can help anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study reveals that when strong L-A coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the prediction skill for surface air temperature at this lead increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L-A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, leading to improved predictions of abnormally warm events.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
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The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
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We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
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Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
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The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
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Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
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We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
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The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
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Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
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Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
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This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
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This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
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Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
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A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
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Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
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We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
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We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
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Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
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Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
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Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
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Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
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Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
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High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
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Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate...
