Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
Research article
09 May 2022
Research article |  | 09 May 2022

Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis

Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block

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Cited articles

Adams, T. E. and Pagano, T. C.: Flood forecasting: A global perspective, Academic Press, ISBN 13 9780128018842, 2016. a
Ahmad, S. K. and Hossain, F.: A generic data-driven technique for forecasting of reservoir inflow: Application for hydropower maximization, Environ. Modell. Softw., 119, 147–165, 2019. a
Ahmad, S. K. and Hossain, F.: Forecast-informed hydropower optimization at long and short-time scales for a multiple dam network, J. Renew. Sustain. Ener., 12, 014501,, 2020. a, b
Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rösch, T., and Siebert, S.: Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 317–337, 2003. a
Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, 2016. a, b
Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.