Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 21 Sep 2021
| 21 Sep 2021
Spatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi system
Nariman Mahmoodi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Kiel University, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources
Management, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Jens Kiesel
Kiel University, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources
Management, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries,
Department of Ecosystem Research, 12489 Berlin, Germany
Paul D. Wagner
Kiel University, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources
Management, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Nicola Fohrer
Kiel University, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources
Management, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Related authors
Nariman Mahmoodi, Ulrich Struck, Michael Schneider, and Christoph Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-214, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding water balance in lakes is complex. We studied Lake Gross Glienicke in Germany, using an innovative method that combines isotope measurements and a hydrological model to improve estimates of water inflow and evaporation. Our findings show a high correlation between the two approaches, leading to better predictions of lake water dynamics. This research offers a reliable way to evaluate the model outputs.
Maria Staudinger, Anna Herzog, Ralf Loritz, Tobias Houska, Sandra Pool, Diana Spieler, Paul D. Wagner, Juliane Mai, Jens Kiesel, Stephan Thober, Björn Guse, and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1076, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Four process-based and four data-driven hydrological models are compared using different training data. We found process-based models to perform better with small data sets but stop learning soon, while data-driven models learn longer. The study highlights the importance of memory in data and the impact of different data sampling methods on model performance. The direct comparison of these models is novel and provides a clear understanding of their performance under various data conditions.
Hendrik Rathjens, Jens Kiesel, Jeffrey Arnold, Gerald Reinken, and Robin Sur
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-877, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the widely used SWAT model to better predict how pesticides move through the environment. We added a new process that considers how plants take-up chemicals from the soil. Testing this updated model in two catchments showed very good prediction capabilities and a reduction of chemicals in river water by up to 17 % due to the plant uptake. The enhanced model offers a valuable tool for assessing the environmental impacts of agricultural management.
Ralf Loritz, Alexander Dolich, Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, Pia Ebeling, Björn Guse, Jonas Götte, Sibylle K. Hassler, Corina Hauffe, Ingo Heidbüchel, Jens Kiesel, Mirko Mälicke, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Michael Stölzle, and Larisa Tarasova
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5625–5642, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The CAMELS-DE dataset features data from 1582 streamflow gauges across Germany, with records spanning from 1951 to 2020. This comprehensive dataset, which includes time series of up to 70 years (median 46 years), enables advanced research on water flow and environmental trends and supports the development of hydrological models.
Nariman Mahmoodi, Ulrich Struck, Michael Schneider, and Christoph Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-214, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding water balance in lakes is complex. We studied Lake Gross Glienicke in Germany, using an innovative method that combines isotope measurements and a hydrological model to improve estimates of water inflow and evaporation. Our findings show a high correlation between the two approaches, leading to better predictions of lake water dynamics. This research offers a reliable way to evaluate the model outputs.
Ayenew D. Ayalew, Paul D. Wagner, Dejene Sahlu, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1853–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1853-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a pioneering comprehensive integrated approach to unravel hydrological complexities in data-scarce regions. By integrating diverse data sources and advanced analytics, we offer a holistic understanding of water systems, unveiling hidden patterns and driving factors. This innovative method holds immense promise for informed decision-making and sustainable water resource management, addressing a critical need in hydrological science.
Hendrik Rathjens, Jens Kiesel, Michael Winchell, Jeffrey Arnold, and Robin Sur
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 159–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-159-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The SWAT model can simulate the transport of water-soluble chemicals through the landscape but neglects the transport through groundwater or agricultural tile drains. These transport pathways are, however, important to assess the amount of chemicals in streams. We added this capability to the model, which significantly improved the simulation. The representation of all transport pathways in the model enables watershed managers to develop robust strategies for reducing chemicals in streams.
Giuseppe Amatulli, Jaime Garcia Marquez, Tushar Sethi, Jens Kiesel, Afroditi Grigoropoulou, Maria M. Üblacker, Longzhu Q. Shen, and Sami Domisch
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4525–4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4525-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4525-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Streams and rivers drive several processes in hydrology, geomorphology, geography, and ecology. A hydrographic network that accurately delineates streams and rivers, along with their topographic and topological properties, is needed for environmental applications. Using the MERIT Hydro Digital Elevation Model at 90 m resolution, we derived a globally seamless, standardised hydrographic network: Hydrography90m. The validation demonstrates improved accuracy compared to other datasets.
Chaogui Lei, Paul D. Wagner, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2561–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2561-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2561-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We presented an integrated approach to hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression quantifying land use change impacts on water and nutrient balance over 3 decades. Results highlight that most variations (70 %–80 %) in water quantity and quality variables are explained by changes in land use class-specific areas and landscape metrics. Arable land influences water quantity and quality the most. The study provides insights on water resources management in rural lowland catchments.
Christoph Schürz, Bano Mehdi, Jens Kiesel, Karsten Schulz, and Mathew Herrnegger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4463–4489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4463-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The USLE is a commonly used model to estimate soil erosion by water. It quantifies soil loss as a product of six inputs representing rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, plant cover, and support practices. Many methods exist to derive these inputs, which can, however, lead to substantial differences in the estimated soil loss. Here, we analyze the effect of different input representations on the estimated soil loss in a large-scale study in Kenya and Uganda.
Björn Guse, Matthias Pfannerstill, Abror Gafurov, Jens Kiesel, Christian Lehr, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5663–5679, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5663-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5663-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Performance measures are used to evaluate the representation of hydrological processes in parameters of hydrological models. In this study, we investigated how strongly model parameters and performance measures are connected. It was found that relationships are different for varying flow conditions, indicating that precise parameter identification requires multiple performance measures. The suggested approach contributes to a better handling of parameters in hydrological modelling.
M. Pfannerstill, B. Guse, D. Reusser, and N. Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4365–4376, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4365-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4365-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
To ensure reliable model results, hydrological processes have to be represented adequately in models. We present a framework that uses a temporal parameter sensitivity analysis and observed hydrological processes in the catchment to verify hydrological models. The framework is exemplarily applied to verify the groundwater structure of a hydrological model. The results show the appropriate simulation of all relevant hydrological processes in relation to processes observed in the catchment.
P. D. Wagner, S. Kumar, and K. Schneider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2233–2246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2233-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2233-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Can adaptations of crop and soil management prevent yield losses during water scarcity? A modeling study
Optimising ensemble streamflow predictions with bias correction and data assimilation techniques
Exploring the value of seasonal flow forecasts for drought management in South Korea
Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective
Creating a national urban flood dataset for China from news texts (2000–2022) at the county level
Thirsty Earth: A Game-Based Approach to Interdisciplinary Water Resources Education
Spatially explicit assessment of water stress and potential mitigating solutions in a large water-limited basin: the Yellow River basin in China
A scalable and modular reservoir implementation for large-scale integrated hydrologic simulations
The interprovincial green water flow in China and its teleconnected effects on the social economy
Impacts of Inter-basin Water Diversion Projects on the Feedback Loops of Water Supply-Hydropower Generation-Environment Conservation Nexus
Modeling hydropower operations at the scale of a power grid: a demand-based approach
Determining the threshold of issuing flash flood warnings based on people's response process simulation
Modeling water balance components of conifer species using the Noah-MP model in an eastern Mediterranean ecosystem
Data-Driven Scaling Methods for Soil Moisture Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensors
Assessment of upscaling methodologies for daily crop transpiration using sap flows and two-source energy balance models in almonds under different water statuses and production systems
Making a case for power-sensitive water modelling: a literature review
Developing water supply reservoir operating rules for large-scale hydrological modelling
An investigation of anthropogenic influences on hydrologic connectivity using model stress tests
A Multiagent Socio-hydrologic Framework for Integrated Green Infrastructures and Water Resource Management at Various Spatial Scales
The H2Ours game to explore water use, resources and sustainability: connecting issues in two landscapes in Indonesia
Drainage assessment of irrigation districts: on the precision and accuracy of four parsimonious models
The Value of Hydroclimatic Teleconnections for Snow-based Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting
Impact of reservoir evaporation on future water availability in north-eastern Brazil: a multi-scenario assessment
How economically and environmentally viable are multiple dams in the upper Cauvery Basin, India? A hydro-economic analysis using a landscape-based hydrological model
Is drought protection possible without compromising flood protection? Estimating the maximum dual-use benefit of small flood reservoirs in Southern Germany
Leveraging a novel hybrid ensemble and optimal interpolation approach for enhanced streamflow and flood prediction
A generalised ecohydrological landscape classification for assessing ecosystem risk in Australia due to an altering water regime
Process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model for complex water resource systems considering reclaimed water
Joint optimal operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering the evenness of water deficit
Employing the generalized Pareto distribution to analyze extreme rainfall events on consecutive rainy days in Thailand's Chi watershed: implications for flood management
How to account for irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Malve Heinz, Maria Eliza Turek, Bettina Schaefli, Andreas Keiser, and Annelie Holzkämper
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1807–1827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1807-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Potato farmers in Switzerland are facing drier conditions and water restrictions. We explored how improving soil health and planting early-maturing potato varieties might help them to adapt. Using a computer model, we simulated potato yields and irrigation water needs under water scarcity. Our results show that earlier-maturing potato varieties reduce the reliance on irrigation but result in lower yields. However, improving soil health can significantly reduce yield losses.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Amulya Chevuturi, Eugene Magee, Elizabeth Cooper, Robert H. B. Johnson, Katie Facer-Childs, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1587–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research compares two techniques, bias correction (BC) and data assimilation (DA), for improving river flow forecasts across 316 UK catchments. BC, which corrects errors after simulation, showed broad improvements, while DA, adjusting model states before forecast, excelled under specific conditions like snowmelt and high baseflows. Each method's unique strengths suit different scenarios. These insights can enhance forecasting systems, offering reliable and user-friendly hydrological predictions.
Yongshin Lee, Andres Peñuela, Francesca Pianosi, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1429–1447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the value of seasonal flow forecasts (SFFs) in informing decision-making for drought management in South Korea and introduces a novel method for assessing values benchmarked against historical operations. Our results showed the importance of considering flow forecast uncertainty in reservoir operations. There was no significant correlation between the forecast accuracy and value. The method for selecting a compromise release schedule was a key control of the value.
Mari R. Tye, Ming Ge, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ethan D. Gutmann, Allyson Rugg, Cindy L. Bruyère, Sue Ellen Haupt, Flavio Lehner, Rachel McCrary, Andrew J. Newman, and Andy Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1117–1133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1117-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a perceived mismatch between the spatial scales on which global climate models can produce data and those needed for water management decisions. However, poor communication of specific metrics relevant to local decisions is also a problem. We assessed the credibility of a set of water management decision metrics in the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2). CESM2 shows potentially greater use of its output in long-range water management decisions.
Shengnan Fu, David M. Schultz, Heng Lyu, Zhonghua Zheng, and Chi Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 767–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We create China’s first open county-level urban flood dataset (2000–2022) using news media data with the help of deep learning. The dataset reflects both natural and societal influences and includes 7595 urban flood events across 2051 counties, covering 46 % of China’s land area. It reveals the predominance of summer floods, an upward trend since 2000, and a decline from southeast to northwest. Notably, some highly developed regions show a decrease, likely due to improved flood management.
Lauren McGiven, Kinsey Poland, Caleb Reinking, and Marc F. Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-330, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce Thirsty Earth, an educational game where students are farmers making irrigation decisions amid climate uncertainty, common-pool costs and resource constraints. The game is web-based and adapted for remote learning either as a light Google Sheets version and a full interactive graphical interface. It bridges technical water management with governance concepts from the social science, providing experiential interdisciplinary learning that traditional STEM curricula often overlook.
Weibin Zhang, Xining Zhao, Xuerui Gao, Wei Liang, Junyi Li, and Baoqing Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 507–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-507-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Yellow River basin shows worsening water stress indicators (WSIs) over 1965‒2020. Water withdrawal is the main factor driving WSI before 2000, balanced by water availability. Local water yield and upstream flows are key drivers of sub-basin water availability. Water demand is expected to rise by 6.5 % in the 2030s, creating an 8.36 km³ surface water deficit. Enhanced irrigation efficiency can cut this deficit by 25 %, maintaining the stress level but worsening it for 44.9% of the population.
Benjamin D. West, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-245-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-245-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the addition of reservoirs to the hydrologic model ParFlow. ParFlow is particularly good at helping us understand some of the broader drivers behind different parts of the water cycle. By having reservoirs in such a model, we hope to be able to better understand both our impacts on the environment and how to adjust our management of reservoirs to changing conditions.
Shan Sang, Yan Li, Chengcheng Hou, Shuangshuang Zi, and Huiqing Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 67–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-67-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-67-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Green water exchanges between each province in China form an interconnected flow network and have substantial socioeconomic values. Green water flow and its teleconnected socioeconomic effects should be considered in water resource management in addition to blue water.
Jiaoyang Wang, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Hua Chen, Jie Chen, Jiabo Yin, and Yuling Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-399, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The unclear feedback loops of water supply-hydropower generation-environmental conservation (SHE) nexus with inter-basin water diversion projects (IWDPs) increase the uncertainty in the rational scheduling of water resources for the water receiving and water donation areas. To address the different impacts of IWDPs on the dynamic SHE nexus and explore collaborative states, a framework was proposed to identify these impacts across the multiple temporal and spatial scales in a reservoirs group.
Laure Baratgin, Jan Polcher, Patrice Dumas, and Philippe Quirion
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5479–5509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modeling is valuable for estimating the potential impact of climate change on hydropower generation. This study presents a comprehensive approach to modeling the management of hydroelectric reservoirs in hydrological models. The total power grid demand for hydropower is distributed to the various power plants to compute their release. The method is tested on the French national power grid, and it is demonstrated that it successfully reproduces the observed behavior of reservoirs.
Ruikang Zhang, Dedi Liu, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Hua Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5229–5247, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash flood warnings cannot be effective without people’s responses to them. We propose a method to determine the threshold of issuing warnings based on a people’s response process simulation. The results show that adjusting the warning threshold according to people’s tolerance levels to the failed warnings can improve warning effectiveness, but the prerequisite is to increase forecasting accuracy and decrease forecasting variance.
Mohsen Amini Fasakhodi, Hakan Djuma, Ioannis Sofokleous, Marinos Eliades, and Adriana Bruggeman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5209–5227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the water use of pine and cypress trees in a semiarid Mediterranean forest environment. We applied a widely used land surface model (Noah-MP) to simulate the water balance of the ecosystem. We found good modeling results for soil moisture. However, the model underestimated the transpiration of the trees during the dry summer months. These findings indicate that more research is needed to improve the modeling of ecosystem responses to climate and land use change.
Roland Baatz, Patrick Davies, Paolo Nasta, and Heye Bogena
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3108, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a new method to improve soil moisture measurements from cosmic ray neutron sensors. Using advanced modeling, we account for changes in atmospheric pressure, air humidity, and cosmic ray intensity based on site and sensor characteristics. The results show that precise adjustments are needed to better measure soil moisture, supporting improved decisions in farming, water management, and climate monitoring.
Manuel Quintanilla-Albornoz, Xavier Miarnau, Ana Pelechá, Héctor Nieto, and Joaquim Bellvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4797–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Remote sensing can be a helpful tool for monitoring crop transpiration (T) for agricultural water management. Since remote sensing provides instantaneous data, upscaling techniques are required to estimate T on a daily scale. This study assesses optimal image acquisition times and four upscaling approaches to estimate daily T. The results indicate that the main errors derive from measurement time and water stress levels, which can be mitigated by choosing a proper upscaling approach.
Rozemarijn ter Horst, Rossella Alba, Jeroen Vos, Maria Rusca, Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Lucie V. Babel, Gert Jan Veldwisch, Jean-Philippe Venot, Bruno Bonté, David W. Walker, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exact power of models often remains hidden, especially when neutrality is claimed. Our review of 61 scientific articles shows that in the scientific literature little attention is given to the power of water models to influence development processes and outcomes. However, there is a lot to learn from those who are openly reflexive. Based on lessons from the review, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what effects.
Saskia Salwey, Gemma Coxon, Francesca Pianosi, Rosanna Lane, Chris Hutton, Michael Bliss Singer, Hilary McMillan, and Jim Freer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4203–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs are essential for water resource management and can significantly impact downstream flow. However, representing reservoirs in hydrological models can be challenging, particularly across large scales. We design a new and simple method for simulating river flow downstream of water supply reservoirs using only open-access data. We demonstrate the approach in 264 reservoir catchments across Great Britain, where we can significantly improve the simulation of reservoir-impacted flow.
Amelie Herzog, Jost Hellwig, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4065–4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Surface water–groundwater interaction can vary along a river. This study used a groundwater model that reproduced relative observed longitudinal and vertical connectivity patterns in the river network to assess the system's response to imposed stress tests. For the case study, imposed groundwater abstraction appears to influence connectivity relatively more than altered recharge, but a quantification of absolute exchange flows will require further model improvements.
Mengxiang Zhang and Ting Fong May Chui
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-232, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-232, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a multiagent socio-hydrologic framework for city, inter-city, and watershed scale integrated green infrastructures (GI) and water resource management. Applied to the Upper Mississippi River Basin, it explores GI-driven water-sharing dynamics in a watershed. It identifies four city-scale water use patterns and characterizes cost and equity in broader scales, thereby enhancing comprehension of GI's role in water resource management and aiding decision-making.
Lisa Tanika, Rika Ratna Sari, Arief Lukman Hakim, Meine van Noordwijk, Marielos Peña-Claros, Beria Leimona, Edi Purwanto, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3807–3835, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The H2Ours game is designed to facilitate knowledge transfer and sharing among stakeholders to trigger commitment and collaborative action to restore hydrological conditions. The adaptability of the H2Ours game was proven in two different landscapes: groundwater recharge in upper to middle sub-watersheds with (over)use of water in the lowland zone and a peatland with drainage, rewetting, oil palm conversion and fire as issues. The game evaluation shows that the H2Ours game meets its purpose.
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep Maria Villar, and Olivier Merlin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3695–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Atabek Umirbekov, Mayra Daniela Peña-Guerrero, Iulii Didovets, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, and Daniel Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-174, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
In snowmelt-dominated catchments, predicting river streamflow typically relies on accumulated snowpack. Our study shows that including large-scale climate patterns like El Niño can improve these predictions. We analyzed climate oscillations, seasonal rainfall, and streamflow, then used these insights and snowpack data in a machine learning model to forecast river streamflow. This method yielded more accurate predictions, useful for long-term forecasting or when snowpack estimates are uncertain.
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research focuses on a 4-million-inhabitant tropical region supplied by a network of open-water reservoirs where the dry season lasts for 8 months (Jun−Dec). We analysed the impact of four climate change scenarios on the evaporation rate and the associated availability (water yield distributed per year). The worst-case scenario shows that by the end of the century (2071−2099), the evaporation rate in the dry season could increase by 6 %, which would reduce stored water by about 80 %.
Anjana Ekka, Yong Jiang, Saket Pande, and Pieter van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we analyse the economic and ecological performance of existing multiple big reservoirs on a daily timescale for a major river basin (upper Cauvery) in India, where pre-intervention data were not available but where there are increasing calls for such assessments. Results show that smaller reservoirs on smaller streams that maximize the economic value of stored water are better for the basin economy and the environment. The approach can help to prioritize dam removals.
Sarah Quỳnh Giang Ho and Uwe Ehret
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2167, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we use models to demonstrate that even small flood reservoirs – which capture water to avoid floods downstream – can be repurposed to release water in drier conditions without affecting their ability to protect against floods. By capturing water and releasing once water levels are low, we show that reservoirs can greatly increase water available in drought. Having more water coming in, however, is not necessarily better for drought protection.
Mohamad El Gharamti, Arezoo Rafieeinasab, and James L. McCreight
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3133–3159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a hybrid data assimilation scheme for precise streamflow predictions during intense rainfall and hurricanes. Tested in real events, it outperforms traditional methods by up to 50 %, utilizing ensemble and climatological background covariances. The adaptive algorithm ensures reliability with a small ensemble, offering improved forecasts up to 18 h in advance, marking a significant advancement in flood prediction capabilities.
Alexander Herr, Linda E. Merrin, Patrick J. Mitchell, Anthony P. O'Grady, Kate L. Holland, Richard E. Mount, David A. Post, Chris R. Pavey, and Ashley D. Sparrow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1957–1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an ecohydrological classification for regions with limited hydrological records. It provides causal links of landscape features and their water requirement. The classification is an essential framework for modelling the impact of future coal resource developments via water on the features. A rule set combines diverse data with prioritisation, resulting in a transparent, repeatable and adjustable approach. We show examples of linking ecohydrology with environmental impacts.
Jing Liu, Yue-Ping Xu, Wei Zhang, Shiwu Wang, and Siwei Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1325–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Applying optimal water allocation models to simultaneously enable economic benefits, water preferences, and environmental demands at different decision levels, timescales, and regions is a challenge. In this study, a process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model (PTSOA) is established to achieve these goals. Reused, reclaimed water is also coupled to capture environmentally friendly solutions. Network analysis was introduced to reduce competition among different stakeholders.
Bing-Yi Zhou, Guo-Hua Fang, Xin Li, Jian Zhou, and Hua-Yu Zhong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 817–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The current unreasonable inter-basin water transfer operation leads to the problem of spatial and temporal imbalances in water allocation. This paper defines a water deficit evenness index and incorporates it into a joint optimization model for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering ecology and economy. At the same time, the lake storage capacity performs well, and the water transfer efficiency of the river is significantly improved.
Tossapol Phoophiwfa, Prapawan Chomphuwiset, Thanawan Prahadchai, Jeong-Soo Park, Arthit Apichottanakul, Watchara Theppang, and Piyapatr Busababodhin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risk management in Thailand's Chi watershed. By analyzing historical data, we identified regions, notably Udon Thani and Chaiyaphum, with a high risk of flash flooding. To aid in flood risk assessment, visual maps were created. The study underscores the importance of preparing for extreme rainfall events, particularly in the context of climate change, to effectively mitigate potential flood damage.
Elisabeth Brochet, Youen Grusson, Sabine Sauvage, Ludovic Lhuissier, and Valérie Demarez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 49–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to take into account irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model. The model we used combines agriculture and hydrological modeling. Two different crop models were compared, the first based on air temperature and the second based on Sentinel-2 satellite data. Results show that including remote sensing data leads to better emergence dates. Both methods allow us to simulate the daily irrigation withdrawals and downstream flow with a good accuracy, especially during low-flow periods.
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Kerr J. Adams, Christopher A. J. Macleod, Marc J. Metzger, Nicola Melville, Rachel C. Helliwell, Jim Pritchard, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2205–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Cited articles
Acero Triana, J. S., Chu, M. L., Guzman, J. A., Moriasi, D. N., and Steiner,
J. L.: Evaluating the risks of groundwater extraction in an agricultural
landscape under different climate projections, Water, 12, 1–20,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020400, 2020.
Achite, M. and Ouillon, S.: Recent changes in climate, hydrology and sediment load in the Wadi Abd, Algeria (1970–2010), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1355–1372, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1355-2016, 2016.
Al Qatarneh, G. N., Al Smadi, B., Al-Zboon, K., and Shatanawi, K. M.: Impact
of climate change on water resources in Jordan: a case study of Azraq basin,
Appl. Water Sci., 8, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-018-0687-9, 2018.
Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., and Williams, J. R.: Large area
hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development 1, J. Am. Water
Resour. As., 34, 73–89, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x,
1998.
Arnold, J. G., Moriasi, D. N., Gassman, P. W., Abbaspour, K. C., White, M. J., Srinivasan, R., Santhi, C., Harmel, R., Van Griensven, A., and Van Liew, M. W.: SWAT: Model use, calibration, and validation, T. ASABE, 55, 1491–1508, 2012.
Ashraf, S., AghaKouchak, A., Nazemi, A., Mirchi, A., Sadegh, M., Moftakhari,
H. R., Hassanzadeh, E., Miao, C. Y., Madani, K., Baygi, M. M., and Anjileli, H.:
Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface
water availability in Iran, Climatic Change, 152, 379–391,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2336-6, 2019.
Bao, A., Mu, G., Zhang, Y., Feng, X., Chang, C., and Yin, X.: Estimation of
the rational water area for controlling wind erosion in the dried-up basin
of the Ebinur Lake and its effect detection, Chinese Sci. Bull., 51, 68–74,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-006-8209-9, 2006.
Boulton, A. J. and Hancock, P. J.: Rivers as groundwater-dependent
ecosystems: a review of degrees of dependency, riverine processes and
management implications, Aust. J. Bot., 54, 133–144,
https://doi.org/10.1071/BT05074, 2006.
Caldwell, P. V., Sun, G., McNulty, S. G., Cohen, E. C., and Moore Myers, J. A.: Impacts of impervious cover, water withdrawals, and climate change on river flows in the conterminous US, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2839–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2839-2012, 2012.
Cui, T., Yang, T., Xu, C. Y., Shao, Q., Wang, X., and Li, Z.: Assessment of the impact of climate change on flow regime at multiple temporal scales and potential ecological implications in an alpine river, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 32, 1849–1866, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1475-z, 2018
Cuthbert, M. O., Taylor, R. G., Favreau, G., Todd, M. C., Shamsudduha, M.,
Villholth, K. G., MacDonald, A. M., Scanlon, B. R., Kotchoni, D. V., Vouillamoz,
J. M., and Lawson, F. M.: Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to
climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 572, 230–234,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1441-7, 2019.
Dash, C. J., Sarangi, A., Singh, D., and Adhikary, P.: Numerical simulation to
assess potential groundwater recharge and net groundwater use in a semi-arid
region, Environ. Monit. Assess., 191, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7508-y, 2019.
Davijani, M. H., Banihabib, M., Anvar, A. N., and Hashemi, S.: Multi-objective
optimization model for the allocation of water resources in arid regions
based on the maximization of socioeconomic efficiency, Water Resour. Manag.,
30, 927–946, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1200-y, 2016.
de Graaf, I. E, Gleeson, T., van Beek, L. R., Sutanudjaja, E. H., and Bierkens,
M. F.: Environmental flow limits to global groundwater pumping, Nature, 574,
90–94, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1594-4, 2019.
Dienel, H.-L., Shirazi, M. R., Schröder, S., and Schmithals, J.: Citizens'
Participation in Urban Planning and Development in Iran: Routledge, New
York, 1–340, 2017.
Döll, P. and Zhang, J.: Impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems: a global-scale analysis of ecologically relevant river flow alterations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 783–799, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-783-2010, 2010.
Eissa, M. A., Thomas, J. M., Pohll, G., Shouakar-Stash, O., Hershey, R. L., and
Dawoud, M.: Groundwater recharge and salinization in the arid coastal plain
aquifer of the Wadi Watir delta, Sinai, Egypt, Appl. Geochem., 71, 48–62,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2016.05.017, 2016.
Emam, A. R., Kappas, M., Akhavan, S., Hosseini, S. Z., and Abbaspour, K. C.:
Estimation of groundwater recharge and its relation to land degradation:
case study of a semi-arid river basin in Iran, Environ. Earth Sci., 74,
6791–803, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-4674-2, 2015.
Emami, F. and Koch, M.: Modeling the impact of climate change on water
availability in the Zarrine River Basin and inflow to the Boukan Dam, Iran.
Climate, 7, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7040051, 2019.
ESA (the European Space Agency): 2010. Globcover 2009 (Global Land Cover
Map), V2.3, 300 m resolution, available at: https://www.esa.int/ESA (last access: 1 April 2018), 2010.
FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISS-CAS/JRC: Harmonized World Soil Database (version
1.1), FAO, Rome, Italy and IIASA,
Laxenburg, Austria, http://www.fao.org (last access: 1 April 2018), 2009.
Giordano, M.: Global groundwater? Issues and solutions, Annu. Rev. Env.
Resour., 34, 153–178, 2009.
Gleeson, T. and Wada, Y.: Assessing regional groundwater stress for nations
using multiple data sources with the groundwater footprint, Environ. Res.
Lett., 8, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044010, 2013.
Haghighi, A. T. and Kløve, B.: Design of environmental flow regimes to
maintain lakes and wetlands in regions with high seasonal irrigation demand,
Ecol. Eng., 100, 120–129, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2016.12.015,
2017.
Haghighi, A. T., Darabi, H., Shahedi, K., Solaimani, K., and Kløve, B.: A
scenario-based approach for assessing the hydrological impacts of land use
and climate change in the Marboreh Watershed, Iran, Environ. Model. Assess.,
25, 41–57, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-019-09665-x, 2020.
Hausfather, Z. and Peters, G. P.: Emissions – the “business as usual” story is
misleading, Nature, 577, 618–620,
https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3, 2020.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F.,
Qin, D., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte,
V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N.,
Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E.,
Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.p, in press, 2021.
IWPCO: Iran Water & Power Resources Development Company, Tehran, Ministry
of Energy, available at: https://iwpco.ir/
(last access: 15 August 2021), 2015.
Izady, A., Davary, K., Alizadeh, A., Ziaei, A. N., Akhavan, S., Alipoor, A.,
Joodavi, A., and Brusseau, M. L.: Groundwater conceptualization and modeling
using distributed SWAT-based recharge for the semi-arid agricultural
Neishaboor plain, Iran, Hydrogeol. J., 23, 47–68,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-014-1219-9, 2015.
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O.B., Bouwer,
L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., and
Georgopoulou, E.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change
projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014.
Kakaei, E., Moradi, H. R., Moghaddam Nia, A. R., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Positive and negative human-modified droughts: a quantitative approach illustrated with two Iranian catchments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-124, 2018.
Kath, J., Boulton, A. J., Harrison, E. T., and Dyer, F. J.: A conceptual
framework for ecological responses to groundwater regime alteration
(FERGRA), Ecohydrology, 11, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.2010, 2018.
Keshavarzi, A. R., Sharifzadeh, M., Haghighi, A. K., Amin, S., Keshtkar, S.,
and Bamdad, A.: Rural domestic water consumption behavior: A case study in
Ramjerd area, Fars province, IR Iran, Water Res., 40, 1173–1178,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2006.01.021, 2006.
Khazaei, B., Khatami, S., Alemohammad, S. H., Rashidi, L., Wu, C., Madani,
K., Kalantari, Z., Destouni, G., and Aghakouchak, A.: Climatic or regionally
induced by humans? Tracing hydro-climatic and land-use changes to better
understand the Lake Urmia tragedy, J. Hydrol., 569, 203–217,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.004, 2019.
Kiesel, J., Stanzel, P., Kling, H., Fohrer, N., Jähnig, S. C., and
Pechlivanidis, I.: Streamflow-based evaluation of climate model
sub-selection methods, Clim. Change, 163, 1267–1285,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02854-8, 2021.
Long, D., Chen, X., Scanlon, B. R., Wada, Y., Hong, Y., Singh, V. P., Chen,
Y., Wang, C., Han, Z., and Yang, W.: Have GRACE satellites overestimated
groundwater depletion in the Northwest India Aquifer?, Sci. Rep.-UK, 6, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep24398, 2016.
Mahmoodi, N., Kiesel, J., Wagner, D. P., and Fohrer, N.: Water use systems
and soil and water conservation methods in a hydrological model of an
Iranian Wadi system, J. Arid Land, 12, 545–560,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-020-0125-3, 2020.
Mahmoodi, N., Wagner, P. D., Kiesel, J., and Fohrer, N.: Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow and major hydrological components of an Iranian Wadi system, Water Clim. Change, 12, 1598–1613, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.098, 2021.
Mahmoudpour, M., Khamehchiyan, M., Nikudel, M. R., and Ghassemi, M. R.:
Numerical simulation and prediction of regional land subsidence caused by
groundwater exploitation in the southwest plain of Tehran, Iran, Eng. Geol.,
201, 6–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.12.004, 2016.
Martens, B., Miralles, D. G., Lievens, H., van der Schalie, R., de Jeu, R. A. M., Fernández-Prieto, D., Beck, H. E., Dorigo, W. A., and Verhoest, N. E. C.: GLEAM v3: satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1903–1925, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1903-2017, 2017.
Messerschmid, C., Sauter, M., and Lange, J.: Field-based estimation and modelling of distributed groundwater recharge in a Mediterranean karst catchment, Wadi Natuf, West Bank, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 887–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-887-2020, 2020.
Miralles, D. G., De Jeu, R. A. M., Gash, J. H., Holmes, T. R. H., and Dolman, A. J.: Magnitude and variability of land evaporation and its components at the global scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 967–981, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-967-2011, 2011.
Modarres, R. and Sadeghi, S.: Spatial and temporal trends of dust storms
across desert regions of Iran, Nat. Hazards, 90, 101–14,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3035-8, 2018.
Moiwo, J. P., Lu, W., Zhao, Y., Yang, Y., and Yang, Y.: Impact of land use on
distributed hydrological processes in the semi-arid wetland ecosystem of
Western Jilin, Hydrol. Process., 24, 492–503,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7503, 2010.
Mombeni, H. A., Rezaei, S., Nadarajah, S., and Emami, M.: Estimation of water
demand in Iran based on SARIMA models, Environ. Model. Assess., 18,
559–565, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-013-9364-4, 2013.
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D.,
and Veith, T. L.: Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification
of accuracy in watershed simulations, T. ASABE, 50, 885–900, 2007.
Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., and Williams, J. R.: Soil and
water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009, Texas Water
Resources Institute, Texas, USA, 2011.
Nielsen, D. L. and Brock, M. A.: Modified water regime and salinity as a
consequence of climate change: prospects for wetlands of Southern Australia,
Climatic Change, 95, 523–33, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9564-8,
2009.
Oki, T. and Kanae, S.: Global hydrological cycles and world water
resources, Science, 313, 1068–1072, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128845,
2006.
Pahlevani Majdabady, M., Rasoulzadeh, A., Kanooni, A., and Ahmadzadeh, G.:
Estimation of groundwater recharge originating from agricultural irrigation
and rainfall in Shyramyn plain, Iran, Irrig. Drain., 69, 107–120,
https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.2398, 2020.
Parizi, E., Hosseini, S. M., Ataie-Ashtiani, B., and Simmons, C. T.:
Normalized difference vegetation index as the dominant predicting factor of
groundwater recharge in phreatic aquifers: case studies across Iran, Sci.
Rep.-UK, 10, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-74561-4, 2020.
Panahi, D. M., Kalantari, Z., Ghajarnia, N., Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S., and
Destouni, G.: Variability and change in the hydro-climate and water
resources of iran over a recent 30-year period, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64089-y, 2020.
PBO: Plan and Budget Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran,
provincial management and planning organization of Kerman province, available at: http://kerman.mporg.ir (last access: 20 June 2020), 2019.
Perrone, D. and Jasechko, S.: Deeper well drilling an unsustainable stopgap
to groundwater depletion, Nature Sustainability, 2, 773–782,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0325-z, 2019.
Qaderi Nasab, F. and Rahnama, M.: Developing restoration strategies in
Jazmurian wetland by remote sensing, Int. J. Environ. Sci. Te., 17,
2767–2782, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-019-02568-0, 2020.
Richey, A. S., Thomas, B. F., Lo, M. H., Reager, J. T., Famiglietti, J. S., Voss,
K., Swenson, S., and Rodell, M.: Quantifying renewable groundwater stress
with GRACE, Water Resour Res., 51, 5217–5238,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017349, 2015.
Richter, B., Baumgartner, J., Wigington, R., and Braun, D. P.: How much water
does a river need?, Freshwater Biol., 37, 231–249,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2427.1997.00153.x, 1997.
Richter, B. D., Baumgartner, J. V., Powell, J., and Braun, D. P.: A method for
assessing hydrologic alteration within ecosystems, Conserv. Biol., 10,
1163–1174, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.1996.10041163.x, 1996.
Richter, B. D., Baumgartner, J. V., Braun, D. P., and Powell, J.: A spatial
assessment of hydrologic alteration within river network, Regul. River., 14, 329–340,
1998.
Ruokolainen, L. and Räisänen, J.: Probabilistic forecasts of
near-term climate change: sensitivity to adjustment of simulated variability
and choice of baseline period, Tellus A, 59, 309–320,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00233.x 2007.
Sanford, T., Frumhoff, P. C., Luers, A., and Gulledge, J.: The climate policy
narrative for a dangerously warming world, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 164–166,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2148, 2014.
Schwalm, C. R., Glendon, S., and Duffy, P. B.: RCP8. 5 tracks cumulative CO2
emissions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 19656–19657,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007117117, 2020.
SCI: Statistics Center of Iran, Index of publications, available at:
https://www.amar.org.ir/english (last access: 20 June 2020), 2017.
Shahid, M., Cong, Z., and Zhang, D.: Understanding the impacts of climate
change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River
basin, Pakistan, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 134, 205–219,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2269-4, 2018.
Shahvari, N., Khalilian, S., Mosavi, S. H., and Mortazavi, S. A.: Assessing
climate change impacts on water resources and
crop yield: a case study of Varamin plain basin, Iran, Environ. Monit.
Assess., 191, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7266-x, 2019.
Sharifikia, M.: Environmental challenges and drought hazard assessment of
Hamoun Desert Lake in Sistan region, Iran, based on the time series of
satellite imagery, Nat. Hazards, 65, 201–217,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0353-8, 2013.
SWAT: SWAT Executables, available at: https://swat.tamu.edu/software/swat-executables/,
last access: 15 August 2021.
Taylor, R.: Hydrology: when wells run dry, Nature, 516, 179–180,
https://doi.org/10.1038/516179a, 2014.
The Nature Conservancy: Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration Version 7.1, User's Manual, 2009.
Tigabu, T. B., Wagner, P. D., Hörmann, G., Kiesel, J., and Fohrer, N.:
Climate change impacts on the water and groundwater resources of the Lake
Tana Basin, Ethiopia, Water Clim. Change, 12, 1544–1563,
https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.126, 2021.
Toews, M. and Allen, D.: Simulated response of groundwater to predicted
recharge in a semi-arid region using a scenario of modelled climate change,
Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 1–19,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035003, 2009.
Vu, T. T., Kiesel, J., Guse, B., and Fohrer, F.: Analysis of the occurrence,
robustness and characteristics of abrupt changes in streamflow time series
under future climate change, Climate Risk Management, 26, 1–18,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.100198, 2019.
Wen, L., Macdonald, R., Morrison, T., Hameed, T., Saintilan, N., and Ling,
J.: From hydrodynamic to hydrological modelling: Investigating long-term
hydrological regimes of key wetlands in the Macquarie Marshes, a semi-arid
lowland floodplain in Australia, J. Hydrol., 500, 45–61,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.07.015, 2013.
Wheater, H. S., Sorooshian, S., and Sharma, K.: Modelling hydrological
processes in arid and semi-arid areas: an introduction to the workshop.
Hydrological Modelling in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, 2008.
Wu, G., Li, L., Ahmad, S., Chen, X., and Pan, X.: A dynamic model for
vulnerability assessment of regional water resources in arid areas: a case
study of Bayingolin, China, Water Resour. Manag., 27, 3085–3101,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0334-z, 2013.
Xue, L., Yang, F., Yang, C., Chen, X., Zhang, L., Chi, Y., and Yang, G.:
Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic
activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China, Sci.
Rep.-UK, 7, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-09215-z, 2017.
Yu, Y., Pi, Y., Yu, X., Ta, Z., Sun, L., Disse, M., Zeng, F., Li, Y., Chen,
X., and Yu, R.: Climate change, water resources and sustainable development
in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years, J.
Arid Land, 11, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-018-0073-3, 2019.
Zhang, J., Zhang, X., and Xiao, H.: Study of the dynamic evaluation model of
overall hydrological alteration degree based on the RVA and set pair
analysis–Markov chain methods, Water Supp., 19, 1515–1524,
https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2019.020, 2019.
Short summary
In this study, we assessed the sustainability of water resources in a wadi region with the help of a hydrologic model. Our assessment showed that the increases in groundwater demand and consumption exacerbate the negative impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alteration. These alterations have severe consequences for a downstream wetland and its ecosystem. The approach may be applicable in other wadi regions with different climate and water use systems.
In this study, we assessed the sustainability of water resources in a wadi region with the help...
