Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5621-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5621-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 26 Nov 2020
| 26 Nov 2020
The 2018 northern European hydrological drought and its drivers in a historical perspective
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Monica Ionita
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Lena M. Tallaksen
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Related authors
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Simon L. L. Michel, Daniel F. Balting, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David N. Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Clim. Past, 20, 573–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-573-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-421, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon, but it is often still analysed and managed like an event without taking into consideration what happened before and after. In this paper we review the literature and discuss five cases, where drought, its impacts and responses develop differently over time. We look at the hydrological, ecological and social system and their connections. And we provide suggestions for further research and for monitoring, modelling and management.
Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xianyao Chen, and Monica Ionita
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1646, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals how a decline in autumn sea ice in the Barents-Kara Seas leads to severe winters in Europe. Using observational data, we illustrate that Arctic sea ice loss isn't just a local issue – it impacts harsh winter conditions globally. Current climate models struggle to reflect these effects accurately, indicating a need for more research. Gaining a more nuanced understanding of this relationship will enhance our climate predictions and preparation for future extremes.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Astrid Vatne, Andrea L. Popp, Peter Horvath, Anders Bryn, Ane Victoria Vollsnes, Sebastian Westermann, Terje Koren Berntsen, Frode Stordal, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 20, 2031–2047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2031-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We measured the land–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and water vapor in alpine Norway over 3 years. The extremely snow-rich conditions in 2020 reduced the total annual evapotranspiration to 50 % and reduced the growing-season carbon assimilation to turn the ecosystem from a moderate annual carbon sink to an even stronger source. Our analysis suggests that snow cover anomalies are driving the most consequential short-term responses in this ecosystem’s functioning.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Niko Wanders, Karin van der Wiel, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 65–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-65-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we developed a machine learning model to identify dominant controls of wildfire in Fennoscandia and produce monthly fire danger probability maps. The dominant control was shallow-soil water anomaly, followed by air temperature and deep soil water. The model proved skilful with a similar performance as the existing Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). We highlight the benefit of using data-driven models jointly with other fire models to improve fire monitoring and prediction.
Norbert Pirk, Kristoffer Aalstad, Sebastian Westermann, Astrid Vatne, Alouette van Hove, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Massimo Cassiani, and Gabriel Katul
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 7293–7314, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-7293-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we show how sparse and noisy drone measurements can be combined with an ensemble of turbulence-resolving wind simulations to estimate uncertainty-aware surface energy exchange. We demonstrate the feasibility of this drone data assimilation framework in a series of synthetic and real-world experiments. This new framework can, in future, be applied to estimate energy and gas exchange in heterogeneous landscapes more representatively than conventional methods.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Daniel Balting, Simon Michel, Viorica Nagavciuc, Gerhard Helle, Mandy Freund, Gerhard H. Schleser, David Steger, Gerrit Lohmann, and Monica Ionita
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-47, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Vapor pressure deficit is a key component of vegetation dynamics, soil science, meteorology, and soil science. In this study, we reconstruct the variability of the vapor pressure deficit in the past and examine the changes in future scenarios using climate models. In this way, past, present and future changes of the vapor pressure deficit can be detected locally, regionally, and continentally with higher statistical significance.
Petru Cosmin Vaideanu, Mihai Dima, Monica Ionita, and Mirela Voiculescu
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-75, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Observing clouds and their properties is not straightforward, however, these are important for reducing climate models uncertainties. Ground-based observations are spatially limited while satellite data are accompanied by various artefacts. In this paper, we use corrected observational and state-of-the-art reanalysis cloud data to show that the recent evolution of total cloud cover on a global scale is linked to the Eastern Pacific and the Central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Monica Ionita and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1685–1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing the joint frequency of compound events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over Central Europe and the Mediterranean region. This, together with the projected increase in potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events over these regions.
Aurel Perşoiu, Nenad Buzjak, Alexandru Onaca, Christos Pennos, Yorgos Sotiriadis, Monica Ionita, Stavros Zachariadis, Michael Styllas, Jure Kosutnik, Alexandru Hegyi, and Valerija Butorac
The Cryosphere, 15, 2383–2399, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2383-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme precipitation events in summer 2019 led to catastrophic loss of cave and surface ice in SE Europe at levels unprecedented during the last century. The projected continuous warming and increase in precipitation extremes could pose an additional threat to glaciers in southern Europe, resulting in a potentially ice-free SE Europe by the middle of the next decade (2035 CE).
Daniel F. Balting, Monica Ionita, Martin Wegmann, Gerhard Helle, Gerhard H. Schleser, Norel Rimbu, Mandy B. Freund, Ingo Heinrich, Diana Caldarescu, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 17, 1005–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To extend climate information back in time, we investigate the climate sensitivity of a δ18O network from tree rings, consisting of 26 European sites and covering the last 400 years. Our results suggest that the δ18O variability is associated with large-scale anomaly patterns that resemble those observed for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We conclude that the investigation of large-scale climate signals far beyond instrumental records can be done with a δ18O network derived from tree rings.
Peter Horvath, Hui Tang, Rune Halvorsen, Frode Stordal, Lena Merete Tallaksen, Terje Koren Berntsen, and Anders Bryn
Biogeosciences, 18, 95–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-95-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-95-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the performance of three methods for representing vegetation cover. Remote sensing provided the best match to a reference dataset, closely followed by distribution modelling (DM), whereas the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) in CLM4.5BGCDV deviated strongly from the reference. Sensitivity tests show that use of threshold values for predictors identified by DM may improve DGVM performance. The results highlight the potential of using DM in the development of DGVMs.
Carmen-Andreea Bădăluţă, Aurel Perșoiu, Monica Ionita, and Natalia Piotrowska
Clim. Past, 16, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2445-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a reconstruction of summer temperature for the last millennium in east-central Europe that shows little summer temperature differences between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age on centennial scales as well as the fact that well-expressed minima and maxima occurred synchronously with periods of low and high solar activity, respectively. Furthermore, summer temperatures fluctuated with a periodicity similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
Monica Ionita, Viorica Nagavciuc, and Bin Guan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5125–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Analysis of the largest 10 floods in the lower Rhine, between 1817 and 2015, shows that all these extreme flood peaks have been preceded, up to 7 d in advance, by intense moisture transport from the tropical North Atlantic basin in the form of narrow bands also known as atmospheric rivers. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of moisture transport as the driver of extreme flooding in the lower part of the Rhine catchment area.
Kerstin Stahl, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jamie Hannaford, Erik Tijdeman, Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 291–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous indices exist for the description of hydrological drought, some are based on absolute thresholds of overall streamflows or water levels and some are based on relative anomalies with respect to the season. This article discusses paradigms and experiences with such index uses in drought monitoring and drought analysis to raise awareness of the different interpretations of drought severity.
Michael Stoelzle, Tobias Schuetz, Markus Weiler, Kerstin Stahl, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 849–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-849-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-849-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During dry weather, different delayed sources of runoff (e.g. from groundwater, wetlands or snowmelt) modulate the magnitude and variability of streamflow. Hydrograph separation methods often do not distinguish these delayed contributions and mostly pool them into only two components (i.e. quickflow and baseflow). We propose a method that uncovers multiple components and demonstrates how they better reflect streamflow generation processes of different flow regimes.
Helene Birkelund Erlandsen, Lena Merete Tallaksen, and Jørn Kristiansen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 797–821, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-797-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Robust estimates of runoff, snow, and evaporation rely on high-quality estimates of incoming solar and thermal radiation at the surface and near surface humidity. Taking advantage of the physical soundness of a numerical weather reanalysis and the preciseness and spatial resolution of a national gridded temperature data set, new estimates of these variables are presented for Norway. Further, existing data sets and observations are compared, emphasizing daily correlation, trends, and gradients.
Aurel Perşoiu, Monica Ionita, and Harvey Weiss
Clim. Past, 15, 781–793, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-781-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a reconstruction of winter climate around 4.2 ka cal BP in Europe, west Asia, and northern Africa that shows generally low temperatures and heterogeneously distributed precipitation. We hypothesize that in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere the 4.2 ka BP event was caused by the strengthening and expansion of the Siberian High, which effectively blocked the moisture-carrying westerlies from reaching west Asia and also resulted in outbreaks of northerly cold and dry winds.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Trine J. Hegdahl, Kolbjørn Engeland, Ingelin Steinsland, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 723–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-723-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-723-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Flood forecasting relies on high-quality meteorological data. This study shows how improved temperature forecasts improve streamflow forecasts in most cases, with the degree of improvement depending on season and region. To improve temperature forecasts further, catchment-specific methods should be developed to account for these seasonal and regional differences. In short, for climates with a seasonal snow cover, higher-quality temperature forecasts clearly improve flood forecasts.
Monica Ionita, Patrick Scholz, Klaus Grosfeld, and Renate Treffeisen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 939–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational record (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by the wettest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian ocean, the Ross Sea, and the Weddell Sea.
Carmen-Andreea Bădăluță, Aurel Perșoiu, Monica Ionita, Viorica Nagavciuc, and Petruț-Ionel Bistricean
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-6, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Dennis Meißner, Bastian Klein, and Monica Ionita
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6401–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6401-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6401-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Inland waterway transport is a commercial sector relying on hydrological forecasts on different timescales. This paper describes the set-up of a monthly to seasonal forecasting system for the German waterways. Multiple approaches are tested, compared and combined. Despite the predictive limitations on longer lead times, this study reveals the existence of a valuable predictability on monthly up to seasonal timescales. Forecast quality depends on forecast location, lead time and season.
Norel Rimbu, Monica Ionita, Markus Czymzik, Achim Brauer, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-137, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-decadal to millennial flood frequency variations in the Mid- to Late Holocene in a flood layer record from Lake Ammersee is strongly related to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperatures in the northeastern Europe.
Johanne H. Rydsaa, Frode Stordal, Anders Bryn, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 14, 4209–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4209-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the atmospheric sensitivity to an expansion in shrub and tree cover in the northern Fennoscandia region. We applied a regional weather and climate model in evaluating biophysical effects of increased shrub cover at a fine resolution. We find that shrub cover increase causes a warming that is sensitive to the shrub and tree heights. Cooling effects include increased snow cover, cloud cover, and precipitation. We show that the net warming will likely increase in the future.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Monica Ionita, Lena M. Tallaksen, Daniel G. Kingston, James H. Stagge, Gregor Laaha, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Patrick Scholz, Silvia M. Chelcea, and Klaus Haslinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1397–1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1397-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1397-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses the European summer drought of 2015 from a climatological perspective, including its origin and spatial and temporal development, and how it compares with the 2003 event. It discusses the main contributing factors controlling the occurrence and persistence of the event: temperature and precipitation anomalies, blocking episodes and sea surface temperatures. The results represent the outcome of a collaborative initiative of members of UNESCO’s FRIEND-Water program.
Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In the Anthropocene, drought cannot be viewed as a natural hazard independent of people. Drought can be alleviated or made worse by human activities and drought impacts are dependent on a myriad of factors. In this paper, we identify research gaps and suggest a framework that will allow us to adequately analyse and manage drought in the Anthropocene. We need to focus on attribution of drought to different drivers, linking drought to its impacts, and feedbacks between drought and society.
Veit Blauhut, Kerstin Stahl, James Howard Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Lucia De Stefano, and Jürgen Vogt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2779–2800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, 2016
Kerstin Stahl, Irene Kohn, Veit Blauhut, Julia Urquijo, Lucia De Stefano, Vanda Acácio, Susana Dias, James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Eleni Kampragou, Anne F. Van Loon, Lucy J. Barker, Lieke A. Melsen, Carlo Bifulco, Dario Musolino, Alessandro de Carli, Antonio Massarutto, Dionysis Assimacopoulos, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), the study presents an assessment of the occurrence and diversity of drought impacts across Europe. A unique research database has collected close to 5000 textual drought impact reports from 33 European countries. Consistently, reported impacts have been dominated in number by agriculture and water supply, but were very diverse across other sectors. Data and assessment may help drought policy planning at the international level.
Norel Rimbu, Markus Czymzik, Monica Ionita, Gerrit Lohmann, and Achim Brauer
Clim. Past, 12, 377–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-377-2016, 2016
A. K. Fleig, L. M. Tallaksen, P. James, H. Hisdal, and K. Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3093–3107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3093-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3093-2015, 2015
J. H. Rydsaa, F. Stordal, and L. M. Tallaksen
Biogeosciences, 12, 3071–3087, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3071-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3071-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
MODIS land surface data with WRF V3.5.1 and Noah LSM is used to investigate the sensitivity of the atmosphere to changes in structural vegetation in the boreal ecosystem. Results show that high north evergreen forest expansion leads to larger latent heat fluxes, while increased summer precipitation and reduced wind speed lead to lower sensible heat flux. Replacement of evergreen forest with mixed forest have largely opposite effects, moderating the regional effects on the atmosphere.
R. P. Bartholomeus, J. H. Stagge, L. M. Tallaksen, and J. P. M. Witte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 997–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-997-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-997-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We used the past century’s time series of observed climate, containing non-stationary signals of atmospheric oscillations, global warming, and global dimming/brightening, to quantify possible systematic errors that may be introduced in estimates of potential evaporation and in hydrological modeling studies due to straightforward application of i) the common two-step approach for potential evaporation specifically, and ii) fixed instead of time-variant model parameters in general.
H. A. J. Van Lanen, N. Wanders, L. M. Tallaksen, and A. F. Van Loon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1715–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1715-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1715-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Mathematical applications
Using statistical models to depict the response of multi-timescale drought to forest cover change across climate zones
Past, present and future rainfall erosivity in central Europe based on convection-permitting climate simulations
The most extreme rainfall erosivity event ever recorded in China up to 2022: the 7.20 storm in Henan Province
The role of atmospheric rivers in the distribution of heavy precipitation events over North America
Study on a mother wavelet optimization framework based on change-point detection of hydrological time series
Projected changes in droughts and extreme droughts in Great Britain strongly influenced by the choice of drought index
Atmospheric water transport connectivity within and between ocean basins and land
Technical Note: Space–time statistical quality control of extreme precipitation observations
The relative importance of antecedent soil moisture and precipitation in flood generation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin
Rainfall pattern analysis in 24 East Asian megacities using a complex network
Comparison between canonical vine copulas and a meta-Gaussian model for forecasting agricultural drought over China
Analysis of flash droughts in China using machine learning
Performance-based comparison of regionalization methods to improve the at-site estimates of daily precipitation
The use of personal weather station observations to improve precipitation estimation and interpolation
Assimilating shallow soil moisture observations into land models with a water budget constraint
Emerging climate signals in the Lena River catchment: a non-parametric statistical approach
Near-0 °C surface temperature and precipitation type patterns across Canada
A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China
Significant spatial patterns from the GCM seasonal forecasts of global precipitation
Bayesian performance evaluation of evapotranspiration models based on eddy covariance systems in an arid region
Technical note: An improved Grassberger–Procaccia algorithm for analysis of climate system complexity
The influence of long-term changes in canopy structure on rainfall interception loss: a case study in Speulderbos, the Netherlands
Geostatistical assessment of warm-season precipitation observations in Korea based on the composite precipitation and satellite water vapor data
Investigating water budget dynamics in 18 river basins across the Tibetan Plateau through multiple datasets
Does the GPM mission improve the systematic error component in satellite rainfall estimates over TRMM? An evaluation at a pan-India scale
Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia
Technical note: Combining quantile forecasts and predictive distributions of streamflows
Scaled distribution mapping: a bias correction method that preserves raw climate model projected changes
Temporal and spatial changes of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tekezē–Atbara river basin, Ethiopia
Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices
Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts
Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation
Comparing bias correction methods in downscaling meteorological variables for a hydrologic impact study in an arid area in China
Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River
Drought severity–duration–frequency curves: a foundation for risk assessment and planning tool for ecosystem establishment in post-mining landscapes
Characterising the space–time structure of rainfall in the Sahel with a view to estimating IDAF curves
Spatial analysis of precipitation in a high-mountain region: exploring methods with multi-scale topographic predictors and circulation types
Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns
Drought evolution characteristics and precipitation intensity changes during alternating dry–wet changes in the Huang–Huai–Hai River basin
Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia
Calibration of aerodynamic roughness over the Tibetan Plateau with Ensemble Kalman Filter analysed heat flux
Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations – a comparison of methods
Spectral representation of the annual cycle in the climate change signal
Simultaneous estimation of land surface scheme states and parameters using the ensemble Kalman filter: identical twin experiments
Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression
Geostatistical radar-raingauge combination with nonparametric correlograms: methodological considerations and application in Switzerland
El Niño-Southern Oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the Yellow River: links and potential for forecasting
A summer climate regime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation
Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling
Yan Li, Bo Huang, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 321–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The inconsistent changes in temperature and precipitation induced by forest cover change are very likely to affect drought condition. We use a set of statistical models to explore the relationship between forest cover change and drought change in different timescales and climate zones. We find that the influence of forest cover on droughts varies under different precipitation and temperature quantiles. Forest cover also could modulate the impacts of precipitation and temperature on drought.
Magdalena Uber, Michael Haller, Christoph Brendel, Gudrun Hillebrand, and Thomas Hoffmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 87–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-87-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We calculated past, present and future rainfall erosivity in central Europe from high-resolution precipitation data (3 km and 1 h) generated by the COSMO-CLM convection-permitting climate model. Future rainfall erosivity can be up to 84 % higher than it was in the past. Such increases are much higher than estimated previously from regional climate model output. Convection-permitting simulations have an enormous and, to date, unexploited potential for the calculation of future rainfall erosivity.
Yuanyuan Xiao, Shuiqing Yin, Bofu Yu, Conghui Fan, Wenting Wang, and Yun Xie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4563–4577, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
An exceptionally heavy rainfall event occurred on 20 July 2021 in central China (the 7.20 storm). The storm presents a rare opportunity to examine the extreme rainfall erosivity. The storm, with an average recurrence interval of at least 10 000 years, was the largest in terms of its rainfall erosivity on record over the past 70 years in China. The study suggests that extreme erosive events can occur anywhere in eastern China and are not necessarily concentrated in low latitudes.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2645–2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
Jiqing Li, Jing Huang, Lei Zheng, and Wei Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2325–2339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2325-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Under the joint action of climate–human activities the use of runoff data whose mathematical properties have changed has become the key to watershed management. To determine whether the data have been changed, the number and the location of changes, we proposed a change-point detection framework. The problem of determining the parameters of wavelet transform has been solved by comparing the accuracy of identifying change points. This study helps traditional models adapt to environmental changes.
Nele Reyniers, Timothy J. Osborn, Nans Addor, and Geoff Darch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1151–1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In an analysis of future drought projections for Great Britain based on the Standardised Precipitation Index and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, we show that the choice of drought indicator has a decisive influence on the resulting projected changes in drought characteristics, although both result in increased drying. This highlights the need to understand the interplay between increasing atmospheric evaporative demand and drought impacts under a changing climate.
Dipanjan Dey, Aitor Aldama Campino, and Kristofer Döös
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 481–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most striking and robust features of climate change is the acceleration of the atmospheric water cycle branch. Earlier studies were able to provide a quantification of the global atmospheric water cycle, but they missed addressing the atmospheric water transport connectivity within and between ocean basins and land. These shortcomings were overcome in the present study and presented a complete synthesised and quantitative view of the atmospheric water cycle.
Abbas El Hachem, Jochen Seidel, Florian Imbery, Thomas Junghänel, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6137–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Through this work, a methodology to identify outliers in intense precipitation data was presented. The results show the presence of several suspicious observations that strongly differ from their surroundings. Many identified outliers did not have unusually high values but disagreed with their neighboring values at the corresponding time steps. Weather radar and discharge data were used to distinguish between single events and false observations.
Qihua Ran, Jin Wang, Xiuxiu Chen, Lin Liu, Jiyu Li, and Sheng Ye
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4919–4931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4919-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4919-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to further evaluate the relative importance of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall on flood generation and the controlling factors. The relative importance of antecedent soil moisture and daily rainfall present a significant correlation with drainage area; the larger the watershed, and the more essential the antecedent soil saturation rate is in flood generation, the less important daily rainfall will be.
Kyunghun Kim, Jaewon Jung, Hung Soo Kim, Masahiko Haraguchi, and Soojun Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4823–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4823-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4823-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study applied a new methodology (complex network), instead of using classic methods, to establish the relationships between rainfall events in large East Asian cities. The relationships show that western China and Southeast Asia have a lot of influence on each other. Moreover, it is confirmed that the relationships arise from the effect of the East Asian monsoon. In future, complex network may be able to be applied to analyze the concurrent relationships between extreme rainfall events.
Haijiang Wu, Xiaoling Su, Vijay P. Singh, Te Zhang, Jixia Qi, and Shengzhi Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3847–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3847-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3847-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Agricultural drought forecasting lies at the core of overall drought risk management and is critical for food security and drought early warning. Using three-dimensional scenarios, we attempted to compare the agricultural drought forecast performance of a canonical vine copula (3C-vine) model and meta-Gaussian (MG) model over China. The findings show that the 3C-vine model exhibits more skill than the MG model when using 1– to 3-month lead times for forecasting agricultural drought.
Linqi Zhang, Yi Liu, Liliang Ren, Adriaan J. Teuling, Ye Zhu, Linyong Wei, Linyan Zhang, Shanhu Jiang, Xiaoli Yang, Xiuqin Fang, and Hang Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3241–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3241-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, three machine learning methods displayed a good detection capacity of flash droughts. The RF model was recommended to estimate the depletion rate of soil moisture and simulate flash drought by considering the multiple meteorological variable anomalies in the adjacent time to drought onset. The anomalies of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a stronger synergistic but asymmetrical effect on flash droughts compared to slowly developing droughts.
Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2797–2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable prediction of floods depends on the quality of the input data such as precipitation. However, estimation of precipitation from the local measurements is known to be difficult, especially for extremes. Regionalization improves the estimates by increasing the quantity of data available for estimation. Here, we compare three regionalization methods based on their robustness and reliability. We apply the comparison to a dense network of daily stations within and outside Switzerland.
András Bárdossy, Jochen Seidel, and Abbas El Hachem
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 583–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-583-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the applicability of data from private weather stations (PWS) for precipitation interpolation was investigated. Due to unknown errors and biases in these observations, a two-step filter was developed that uses indicator correlations and event-based spatial precipitation patterns. The procedure was tested and cross validated for the state of Baden-Württemberg (Germany). The biggest improvement is achieved for the shortest time aggregations.
Bo Dan, Xiaogu Zheng, Guocan Wu, and Tao Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5187–5201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5187-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Data assimilation is a procedure to generate an optimal combination of the state variable in geoscience, based on the model outputs and observations. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) scheme is a widely used assimilation method in soil moisture estimation. This study proposed several modifications of EnKF for improving this assimilation. The study shows that the quality of the assimilation result is improved, while the degree of water budget imbalance is reduced.
Eric Pohl, Christophe Grenier, Mathieu Vrac, and Masa Kageyama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Existing approaches to quantify the emergence of climate change require several user choices that make these approaches less objective. We present an approach that uses a minimum number of choices and showcase its application in the extremely sensitive, permafrost-dominated region of eastern Siberia. Designed as a Python toolbox, it allows for incorporating climate model, reanalysis, and in situ data to make use of numerous existing data sources and reduce uncertainties in obtained estimates.
Eva Mekis, Ronald E. Stewart, Julie M. Theriault, Bohdan Kochtubajda, Barrie R. Bonsal, and Zhuo Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1741-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1741-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article provides a Canada-wide analysis of near-0°C temperature conditions (±2°C) using hourly surface temperature and precipitation type observations from 92 locations for the 1981–2011 period. Higher annual occurrences were found in Atlantic Canada, although high values also occur in other regions. Trends of most indicators show little or no change despite a systematic warming over Canada. A higher than expected tendency for near-0°C conditions was also found at some stations.
Jianjun Zhang, Guangyao Gao, Bojie Fu, Cong Wang, Hoshin V. Gupta, Xiaoping Zhang, and Rui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 809–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-809-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed an approach that integrates universal multifractals and a segmentation algorithm to precisely identify extreme precipitation (EP) and assess spatiotemporal EP variation over the Loess Plateau, using daily data. Our results explain how EP contributes to the widely distributed severe natural hazards. These findings are of great significance for ecological management in the Loess Plateau. Our approach is also helpful for spatiotemporal EP assessment at the regional scale.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Wei Zhang, Yongyong Zhang, Zhiyong Liu, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1-2020, 2020
Guoxiao Wei, Xiaoying Zhang, Ming Ye, Ning Yue, and Fei Kan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2877–2895, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2877-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately evaluating evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical challenge in improving hydrological process modeling. Here we evaluated four ET models (PM, SW, PT–FC, and AA) under the Bayesian framework. Our results reveal that the SW model has the best performance. This is in part because the SW model captures the main physical mechanism in ET; the other part is that the key parameters, such as the extinction factor, could be well constrained with observation data.
Chongli Di, Tiejun Wang, Xiaohua Yang, and Siliang Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5069–5079, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5069-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5069-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The original Grassberger–Procaccia algorithm for complex analysis was modified by incorporating the normal-based K-means clustering technique and the RANSAC algorithm. The calculation accuracy of the proposed method was shown to outperform traditional algorithms. The proposed algorithm was used to diagnose climate system complexity in the Hai He basin. The spatial patterns of the complexity of precipitation and air temperature reflected the influence of the dominant climate system.
César Cisneros Vaca, Christiaan van der Tol, and Chandra Prasad Ghimire
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3701-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3701-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of long-term changes in canopy structure on rainfall interception loss was studied in a 55-year old forest. Interception loss was similar at the same site (38 %), when the forest was 29 years old. In the past, the forest was denser and had a higher storage capacity, but the evaporation rates were lower. We emphasize the importance of quantifying downward sensible heat flux and heat release from canopy biomass in tall forest in order to improve the quantification of evaporation.
Sojung Park, Seon Ki Park, Jeung Whan Lee, and Yunho Park
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3435–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3435-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3435-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the precipitation characteristics is essential to design an optimal observation network. We studied the spatial and temporal characteristics of summertime precipitation systems in Korea via geostatistical analyses on the ground-based precipitation and satellite water vapor data. We found that, under a strict standard, an observation network with higher resolution is required in local areas with frequent heavy rainfalls, depending on directional features of precipitation systems.
Wenbin Liu, Fubao Sun, Yanzhong Li, Guoqing Zhang, Yan-Fang Sang, Wee Ho Lim, Jiahong Liu, Hong Wang, and Peng Bai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 351–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-351-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The dynamics of basin-scale water budgets over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are not well understood nowadays due to the lack of hydro-climatic observations. In this study, we investigate seasonal cycles and trends of water budget components (e.g. precipitation P, evapotranspiration ET and runoff Q) in 18 TP river basins during the period 1982–2011 through the use of multi-source datasets (e.g. in situ observations, satellite retrievals, reanalysis outputs and land surface model simulations).
Harsh Beria, Trushnamayee Nanda, Deepak Singh Bisht, and Chandranath Chatterjee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6117–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6117-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6117-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
High-quality satellite precipitation forcings have provided a viable alternative to hydrologic modeling in data-scarce regions. Ageing TRMM sensors have recently been upgraded to GPM, promising enhanced spatio-temporal resolutions. Statistical and hydrologic evaluation of GPM measurements across 86 Indian river basins revealed improved low rainfall estimates with reduced effects of climatology and topography.
James C. Bennett, Quan J. Wang, David E. Robertson, Andrew Schepen, Ming Li, and Kelvin Michael
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6007–6030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We assess a new streamflow forecasting system in Australia. The system is designed to meet the need of water agencies for 12-month forecasts. The forecasts perform well in a wide range of rivers. Forecasts for shorter periods (up to 6 months) are generally informative. Forecasts sometimes did not perform well in a few very dry rivers. We test several techniques for improving streamflow forecasts in drylands, with mixed success.
Konrad Bogner, Katharina Liechti, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5493–5502, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The enhanced availability of many different weather prediction systems nowadays makes it very difficult for flood and water resource managers to choose the most reliable and accurate forecast. In order to circumvent this problem of choice, different approaches for combining this information have been applied at the Sihl River (CH) and the results have been verified. The outcome of this study highlights the importance of forecast combination in order to improve the quality of forecast systems.
Matthew B. Switanek, Peter A. Troch, Christopher L. Castro, Armin Leuprecht, Hsin-I Chang, Rajarshi Mukherjee, and Eleonora M. C. Demaria
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2649–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2649-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The commonly used bias correction method called quantile mapping assumes a constant function of error correction values between modeled and observed distributions. Our article finds that this function cannot be assumed to be constant. We propose a new bias correction method, called scaled distribution mapping, that does not rely on this assumption. Furthermore, the proposed method more explicitly accounts for the frequency of rain days and the likelihood of individual events.
Tesfay G. Gebremicael, Yasir A. Mohamed, Pieter v. Zaag, and Eyasu Y. Hagos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2127-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2127-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study was conducted to understand the spatio-temporal variations of streamflow in the Tekezē basin. Results showed rainfall over the basin did not significantly change. However, streamflow experienced high variabilities at seasonal and annual scales. Further studies are needed to verify hydrological changes by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. Findings are useful as prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological processes.
Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, Florian Pappenberger, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1573–1591, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The use of general circulation model outputs for streamflow forecasting has developed in the last decade. In parallel, traditional streamflow forecasting is commonly based on historical data. This study investigates the impact of conditioning historical data based on circulation model precipitation forecasts on seasonal streamflow forecast quality. Results highlighted a trade-off between the sharpness and reliability of forecasts.
Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3601–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the way bias correcting precipitation forecasts can improve the skill of streamflow forecasts at extended lead times. Eight variants of bias correction approaches based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods are applied to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. One of the main results of the study is that distribution mapping of daily values is successful in improving forecast reliability.
P. Froidevaux, J. Schwanbeck, R. Weingartner, C. Chevalier, and O. Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3903–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3903-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3903-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate precipitation characteristics prior to 4000 annual floods in Switzerland since 1961. The floods were preceded by heavy precipitation, but in most catchments extreme precipitation occurred only during the last 3 days prior to the flood events. Precipitation sums for earlier time periods (like e.g. 4-14 days prior to floods) were mostly average and do not correlate with the return period of the floods.
G. H. Fang, J. Yang, Y. N. Chen, and C. Zammit
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2547–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2547-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares the effects of five precipitation and three temperature correction methods on precipitation, temperature, and streamflow through loosely coupling RCM (RegCM) and a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) in terms of frequency-based indices and time-series-based indices. The methodology and results can be used for other regions and other RCM and hydrologic models, and for impact studies of climate change on water resources at a regional scale.
M. S. Siam and E. A. B. Eltahir
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1181–1192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explains the different natural modes of interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River and also presents a new index based on the sea surface temperature (SST) over the southern Indian Ocean to forecast the flow of the Nile River. It also presents a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that can be used to predict the Nile flow based on indices of the SST in the eastern Pacific and southern Indian oceans.
D. Halwatura, A. M. Lechner, and S. Arnold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1069–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1069-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1069-2015, 2015
G. Panthou, T. Vischel, T. Lebel, G. Quantin, and G. Molinié
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5093–5107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5093-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5093-2014, 2014
D. Masson and C. Frei
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4543–4563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4543-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4543-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
The question of how to utilize information from the physiography/topography in the spatial interpolation of rainfall is a long-standing discussion in the literature. In this study we test ideas that go beyond the approach in popular interpolation schemes today. The key message of our study is that these ideas can at best marginally improve interpolation accuracy, even in a region where a clear benefit would intuitively be expected.
A. Casanueva, C. Rodríguez-Puebla, M. D. Frías, and N. González-Reviriego
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 709–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-709-2014, 2014
D. H. Yan, D. Wu, R. Huang, L. N. Wang, and G. Y. Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2859–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2859-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2859-2013, 2013
F. Yusof, I. L. Kane, and Z. Yusop
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1311–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1311-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1311-2013, 2013
J. H. Lee, J. Timmermans, Z. Su, and M. Mancini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4291–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4291-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4291-2012, 2012
L. Gudmundsson, J. B. Bremnes, J. E. Haugen, and T. Engen-Skaugen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3383–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3383-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3383-2012, 2012
T. Bosshard, S. Kotlarski, T. Ewen, and C. Schär
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2777–2788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2777-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2777-2011, 2011
S. Nie, J. Zhu, and Y. Luo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2437–2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2437-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2437-2011, 2011
G. Ibarra-Berastegi, J. Saénz, A. Ezcurra, A. Elías, J. Diaz Argandoña, and I. Errasti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1895–1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1895-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1895-2011, 2011
R. Schiemann, R. Erdin, M. Willi, C. Frei, M. Berenguer, and D. Sempere-Torres
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1515–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1515-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1515-2011, 2011
A. Lü, S. Jia, W. Zhu, H. Yan, S. Duan, and Z. Yao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1273–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1273-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1273-2011, 2011
G. Wang, A. J. Dolman, and A. Alessandri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 57–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-57-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-57-2011, 2011
F. Garavaglia, J. Gailhard, E. Paquet, M. Lang, R. Garçon, and P. Bernardara
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 951–964, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-951-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-951-2010, 2010
Cited articles
Barker, L. J., Hannaford, J., Chiverton, A., and Svensson, C.: From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, 2016. a
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and
García-Herrera, R.: The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature
record map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224, 2011. a
Beguería, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Reig, F., and Latorre, B.:
Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited:
parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought
monitoring, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3001–3023, 2014. a
Bordi, I., Fraedrich, K., and Sutera, A.: Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: an update, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1519–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-1519-2009, 2009. a
Buitink, J., Swank, A. M., van der Ploeg, M., Smith, N. E., Benninga, H.-J. F., van der Bolt, F., Carranza, C. D. U., Koren, G., van der Velde, R., and Teuling, A. J.: Anatomy of the 2018 agricultural drought in The Netherlands using in situ soil moisture and satellite vegetation indices, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., vol. 2020, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-358, in review, 2020. a
Buras, A., Rammig, A., and Zang, C. S.: Quantifying impacts of the 2018 drought on European ecosystems in comparison to 2003, Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, 2020. a
Changnon, S.: Detecting drought conditions in Illinois, Illinois State Water
Survey, Champaign, Illinois, USA, Circular, 169, 1–36, available at: http://hdl.handle.net/2142/94485, last access: 23 November 2020, 1987. a
Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J., and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 9391–9409,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018. a
Dawson, A.: eofs: A library for eof analysis of meteorological, oceanographic, and climate data, Journal of Open Research Software, 4, p. e14, https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.122, 2016. a
Deutscher Wetterdienst: Monatlicher Klimastatus Deutschland Mai 2018, DWD, Geschäftsbereich Klima und Umwelt, Offenbach, 29 pp., avaialble at: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/pbfb_verlag_monat_klimastatus/monat_klimastatus.html,
last access: 18 November 2020, 2018. a
Feudale, L. and Shukla, J.: Influence of sea surface temperature on the
European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study, Clima.
Dynam., 36, 1691–1703, 2011. a
Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.:
Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat
waves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06707, available at: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL029068, last access: 24 November 2020, 2007a.
a
Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., and
Schär, C.: Soil moisture–atmosphere interactions during the 2003
European summer heat wave, J. Climate, 20, 5081–5099, 2007b. a
Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., Hisdal, H., and Hannah, D. M.: Regional
hydrological drought in north-western Europe: linking a new Regional Drought
Area Index with weather types, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1163–1179, 2011. a
Grinde, L., Kristiansen, S., and Mamen, J.: Været i Norge – Klimatologisk månedsoversikt Mai 2018, Tech. Rep., Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, 1–32, available at: https://www.met.no/publikasjoner/met-info/met-info-2018, last access: 23 November 2020, 2018a. a
Grinde, L., Lundstad, E., Skaland, R., and Tajet, H. T. T.: Været i Norge
– Klimatologisk månedsoversikt Juli 2018, Tech. Rep., Norwegian
Meteorological Institute, 1–18, available at: https://www.met.no/publikasjoner/met-info/met-info-2018, last access: 23 November 2020, 2018b. a
Gudmundsson, L. and Stagge, J. H.: SCI: Standardized Climate Indices such as
SPI, SRI or SPEI, r package version 1.0-2, The Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN), 1–12, available at: https://cran.r-project.org/package=SCI, last access: 23 November 2020, 2016. a
Hannaford, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Keef, C., Parry, S., and Prudhomme, C.:
Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using
regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit, Hydrol.
Process., 25, 1146–1162, 2011. a
Hannah, D. M., Demuth, S., van Lanen, H. A. J., Looser, U., Prudhomme, C., Rees,
G., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Large-scale river flow archives:
importance, current status and future needs, Hydrol. Process., 25,
1191–1200, 2011. a
Hargreaves, G. H. and Samani, Z. A.: Reference crop evapotranspiration from
temperature, in: Proceedings of the Winter Meeting of American Society of
Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 96–99, 1985. a
Haslinger, K., Koffler, D., Schöner, W., and Laaha, G.: Exploring the link between meteorological drought and streamflow: Effects of climate-catchment interaction, Water Resour. Res., 50, 2468–2487, 2014. a
Hirschi, M., Mueller, B., Dorigo, W., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Using remotely
sensed soil moisture for land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics: The role of
surface vs. root-zone soil moisture variability, Remote Sens. Environ., 154, 246–252, 2014. a
Ionita, M., Lohmann, G., Rimbu, N., Chelcea, S., and Dima, M.: Interannual to
decadal summer drought variability over Europe and its relationship to global sea surface temperature, Clima. Dynam., 38, 363–377, 2012. a
Ionita, M., Tallaksen, L. M., Kingston, D. G., Stagge, J. H., Laaha, G., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Scholz, P., Chelcea, S. M., and Haslinger, K.: The European 2015 drought from a climatological perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1397–1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1397-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L.,
Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–472, 1996. a
Kerr, Y. H.: Soil moisture from space: Where are we?, Hydrogeol. J., 15, 117–120, 2007. a
Kingston, D. G., Fleig, A. K., Tallaksen, L. M., and Hannah, D. M.:
Ocean-atmosphere forcing of summer streamflow drought in Great Britain,
J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 331–344, 2013. a
Kingston, D. G., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., and Hannah, D. M.:
European-scale drought: understanding connections between atmospheric
circulation and meteorological drought indices, J. Climate, 28,
505–516, 2015. a
Kumar, R., Musuuza, J. L., Van Loon, A. F., Teuling, A. J., Barthel, R., Ten Broek, J., Mai, J., Samaniego, L., and Attinger, S.: Multiscale evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index as a groundwater drought indicator, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1117–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, 2016. a
Laaha, G., Gauster, T., Tallaksen, L. M., Vidal, J.-P., Stahl, K., Prudhomme, C., Heudorfer, B., Vlnas, R., Ionita, M., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Adler, M.-J., Caillouet, L., Delus, C., Fendekova, M., Gailliez, S., Hannaford, J., Kingston, D., Van Loon, A. F., Mediero, L., Osuch, M., Romanowicz, R., Sauquet, E., Stagge, J. H., and Wong, W. K.: The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Liu, Q., Reichle, R. H., Bindlish, R., Cosh, M. H., Crow, W. T., de Jeu, R.,
De Lannoy, G. J., Huffman, G. J., and Jackson, T. J.: The contributions of
precipitation and soil moisture observations to the skill of soil moisture
estimates in a land data assimilation system, J. Hydrometeorol.,
19, 750–765, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-10-05000.1, 2018. a
McVicar, T. R., Roderick, M. L., Donohue, R. J., Li, L. T., Van Niel, T. G.,
Thomas, A., Grieser, J., Jhajharia, D., Himri, Y., Mahowald, N. M., Mescherskaya, A. V., Kruger, A. C., Rehman, S., and Dinpashoh, Y.:
Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface
wind speeds: Implications for evaporation, J. Hydrol., 416,
182–205, 2012. a
Met Office Hadley Centre: Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST), available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/, last access: 1 September 2020, 2020. a
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 202–216, 2010. a
National Hydrological Monitoring Programme: Hydrological Summary for the
United Kingdom: October 2017, Tech. Rep., Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,
Wallingford, United Kingdom, 12 pp., available at: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/518356, last access: 27 November 2019, 2017. a
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): NCEP-NCAR 40-year reanalysis project data, available at: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Datasets/ncep.reanalysis.derived/pressure/, last access: 7 February 2019, 2019. a
Peters, E., Torfs, P., Van Lanen, H., and Bier, G.: Propagation of drought
through groundwater – a new approach using linear reservoir theory,
Hydrol. Process., 17, 3023–3040, 2003. a
Rayner, N., Parker, D. E., Horton, E., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V.,
Rowell, D., Kent, E., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface
temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late
nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003. a
Schenk, H. J. and Jackson, R. B.: The global biogeography of roots, Ecol. Monogr., 72, 311–328, 2002. a
Schubert, S., Wang, H., and Suarez, M.: Warm season subseasonal variability and climate extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of stationary Rossby waves, J. Climate, 24, 4773–4792, 2011. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B.,
Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil
moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, 2010. a
Sømme, A.: A Geography of Norden: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Cappelen, J. W. Forlag, Oslo Gyldendalske Boghandel, Nordisk forlag, København, Svenska Bokförlaget, P. A. Norstedt & Söner, Bonnier, A., Stockholm, Akateeminen Kirjakauppa, Akademiska Bokhandeln, Helsingfors, William Heinemann LTD, London/Melbourne/Toronto, 363 pp., ISBN 13:9780435348205, 1960. a
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Vogt, J. V., and Barbosa, P.: The biggest drought
events in Europe from 1950 to 2012, J. Hydrol.: Regional Studies,
3, 509–524, 2015. a
Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Gudmundsson, L., Van Loon, A. F., and Stahl,
K.: Candidate distributions for climatological drought indices (SPI and
SPEI), Int. J. Climatol., 35, 4027–4040, 2015. a
Stagge, J. H., Kingston, D. G., Tallaksen, L. M., and Hannah, D. M.: Observed
drought indices show increasing divergence across Europe, Scientific Reports, 7, 14045, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14283-2, 2017. a, b
Stahl, K., Kohn, I., Blauhut, V., Urquijo, J., De Stefano, L., Acácio, V., Dias, S., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Kampragou, E., Van Loon, A. F., Barker, L. J., Melsen, L. A., Bifulco, C., Musolino, D., de Carli, A., Massarutto, A., Assimacopoulos, D., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Tallaksen, L. M., Hisdal, H., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Space–time modelling of
catchment scale drought characteristics, J. Hydrol., 375, 363–372,
2009. a
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): E-OBS data access, available at: https://surfobs.climate.copernicus.eu/dataaccess/access_eobs.php, last access: 24 August 2020, 2020. a
The National Archives: Non-Commercial Government Licence for public sector information, available at: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/non-commercial-government-licence/version/2/, last access: 15 November 2020, 2020. a
Van Lanen, H. A. J., Laaha, G., Kingston, D. G., Gauster, T., Ionita, M., Vidal, J.-P., Vlnas, R., Tallaksen, L. M., Stahl, K., Hannaford, J., Delus, C., Fendekova, M., Mediero, L., Prudhomme, C., Rets, E., Romanowicz, R. J., Sebastien, G., Wong, W. K., Adler, M.-J., Blauhut, V., Caillouet, L.,
Chelcea, S., Frolova, N., Gudmundsson, L., Hanel, M., Haslinger, K., Kireeva, M., Osuch, M., Sauquet, E., Stagge, J. H., and Van Loon, A. F.:
Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case, Hydrol.
Process., 30, 3097–3104, 2016. a
Van Loon, A. F. and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: A process-based typology of hydrological drought, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1915–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1915-2012, 2012. a, b
Van Loon, A. F., van Lanen, H. A. J., Tallaksen, L. M., Hanel, M., Fendeková, M., Machlica, A., Sapriza, G., Koutroulis, A., van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., Bermúdez, J. J., Hisdal, H., and Tsanis, I.: Propagation of drought through the hydrological cycle, Tech. Rep. no. 32, European Commission, Brussel, Belgium, 97 pp., available at: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Henny_Van_Lanen/publication/283826536_Drought_propagation_through_the_hydrological_cycle/links/54ac664f0cf2479c2ee7d46b.pdf, last access: 24 November 2020, 2011. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J.-I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., García-Ruiz, J. M., Azorin-Molina, C.,
Morán-Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R., Coelho, F., and Espejo, F.: Evidence of increasing
drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 044001, 2014. a
Vidal, J.-P., Martin, E., Franchistéguy, L., Habets, F., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Blanchard, M., and Baillon, M.: Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-459-2010, 2010. a
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Analysis in the Atmospheric Sciences, London:
Academic Press, Elsevier, 648 pp., ISBN 9780127519661, 2005. a
World Meteorological Organization: Standardized precipitation index user guide, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland, 16 pp., ISBN 9789263110916, 2012. a
World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership: Handbook of
Drought Indicators and Indices, edited by: Svoboda, M. and Fuchs, B. A., Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP), Geneva, Switzerland, 45 pp., ISBN 9789263111739, 2016. a
Yang, Y., Donohue, R. J., and McVicar, T. R.: Global estimation of effective
plant rooting depth: Implications for hydrological modeling, Water Resour.
Res., 52, 8260–8276, 2016. a
Zaidman, M. and Rees, H.: Spatial patterns of streamflow drought in Western
Europe 1960–1995, Tech. Rep. to the ARIDE project no. 8, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK, 1–57, available at: http://www.hydrology.uni-freiburg.de/forsch/aride/navigation/publications/pdfs/aride-techrep8.pdf, last access: 23 November 2020, 2000. a
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(34357 KB) - Full-text XML
- Corrigendum
-
Supplement
(7380 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Short summary
This study provides an in-depth analysis of the 2018 northern European drought. Large parts of the region experienced 60-year record-breaking temperatures, linked to high-pressure systems and warm surrounding seas. Meteorological drought developed from May and, depending on local conditions, led to extreme low flows and groundwater drought in the following months. The 2018 event was unique in that it affected most of Fennoscandia as compared to previous droughts.
This study provides an in-depth analysis of the 2018 northern European drought. Large parts of...
