Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015
Research article
 | 
11 May 2015
Research article |  | 11 May 2015

Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe

L. Alfieri, P. Burek, L. Feyen, and G. Forzieri

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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble hydro-meteorological simulation for flash flood early detection in southern Switzerland, J. Hydrol., 424–425, 143–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.12.038, 2012.
Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., and Wetterhall, F.: The extreme runoff index for flood early warning in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1505–1515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1505-2014, 2014a.
Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Neal, J., Bates, P., and Feyen, L.: Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4067–4077, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9947, 2014b.
Alkama, R., Marchand, L., Ribes, A., and Decharme, B.: Detection of global runoff changes: Results from observations and CMIP5 experiments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2967–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2967-2013, 2013.
Andersen, T. K. and Marshall Shepherd, J.: Floods in a changing climate, Geogr. Compass, 7, 95–115, https://doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12025, 2013.
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Short summary
This work presents, to our best knowledge, the first pan-European assessment of the future hydro-meteorological hazard based on an ensemble of the new EURO-CORDEX regional climate scenarios. We propose a novel approach, which shows how the change in the frequency of future floods in Europe is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections.