Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe

Alfieri, L.; Burek, P.; Feyen, L.; Forzieri, G.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015

Articles | Volume 19, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 5

Research article

|

11 May 2015

Research article |

| 11 May 2015

Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe

L. Alfieri, P. Burek, L. Feyen, and G. Forzieri

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Total article views: 16,808 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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PDF: 7,114
XML: 1,056
Total: 16,808
Supplement: 952
BibTeX: 321
EndNote: 364

Views and downloads (calculated since 23 Jan 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2015	121	75	3	199
Feb 2015	44	28	0	72
Mar 2015	28	29	1	58
Apr 2015	38	15	0	53
May 2015	305	292	8	605
Jun 2015	99	61	2	162
Jul 2015	80	67	3	150
Aug 2015	46	44	0	90
Sep 2015	41	57	9	107
Oct 2015	103	90	3	196
Nov 2015	53	61	1	115
Dec 2015	37	71	4	112
Jan 2016	55	57	0	112
Feb 2016	39	46	3	88
Mar 2016	49	49	19	117
Apr 2016	27	37	0	64
May 2016	24	38	2	64
Jun 2016	18	52	0	70
Jul 2016	15	25	1	41
Aug 2016	20	26	0	46
Sep 2016	23	36	1	60
Oct 2016	23	26	4	53
Nov 2016	20	17	7	44
Dec 2016	7	12	4	23
Jan 2017	35	36	14	85
Feb 2017	22	21	10	53
Mar 2017	48	39	23	110
Apr 2017	38	45	23	106
May 2017	39	47	14	100
Jun 2017	48	38	10	96
Jul 2017	41	46	8	95
Aug 2017	32	30	9	71
Sep 2017	37	52	8	97
Oct 2017	24	48	12	84
Nov 2017	43	65	9	117
Dec 2017	28	51	10	89
Jan 2018	22	35	8	65
Feb 2018	46	38	12	96
Mar 2018	30	46	10	86
Apr 2018	33	51	19	103
May 2018	45	51	8	104
Jun 2018	52	45	15	112
Jul 2018	53	49	13	115
Aug 2018	43	57	10	110
Sep 2018	40	51	14	105
Oct 2018	51	72	23	146
Nov 2018	46	75	16	137
Dec 2018	33	54	16	103
Jan 2019	44	48	19	111
Feb 2019	30	61	15	106
Mar 2019	36	59	14	109
Apr 2019	29	74	19	122
May 2019	25	82	11	118
Jun 2019	35	83	6	124
Jul 2019	45	69	18	132
Aug 2019	31	54	21	106
Sep 2019	24	54	9	87
Oct 2019	44	116	9	169
Nov 2019	43	109	12	164
Dec 2019	37	87	12	136
Jan 2020	42	84	18	144
Feb 2020	25	66	6	97
Mar 2020	40	114	12	166
Apr 2020	38	84	12	134
May 2020	30	67	10	107
Jun 2020	37	62	14	113
Jul 2020	51	53	24	128
Aug 2020	30	73	15	118
Sep 2020	41	68	12	121
Oct 2020	41	62	7	110
Nov 2020	56	62	13	131
Dec 2020	63	71	8	142
Jan 2021	87	82	15	184
Feb 2021	53	64	16	133
Mar 2021	56	45	23	124
Apr 2021	40	44	19	103
May 2021	59	51	19	129
Jun 2021	37	52	11	100
Jul 2021	47	43	22	112
Aug 2021	41	37	8	86
Sep 2021	53	43	3	99
Oct 2021	59	68	16	143
Nov 2021	41	57	6	104
Dec 2021	52	56	4	112
Jan 2022	59	59	5	123
Feb 2022	45	55	7	107
Mar 2022	62	53	6	121
Apr 2022	89	54	4	147
May 2022	72	32	3	107
Jun 2022	71	42	4	117
Jul 2022	37	26	0	63
Aug 2022	66	36	2	104
Sep 2022	50	47	5	102
Oct 2022	58	44	6	108
Nov 2022	76	51	4	131
Dec 2022	106	47	7	160
Jan 2023	84	55	8	147
Feb 2023	58	45	5	108
Mar 2023	106	70	6	182
Apr 2023	61	63	5	129
May 2023	45	54	1	100
Jun 2023	36	35	3	74
Jul 2023	69	36	5	110
Aug 2023	80	36	4	120
Sep 2023	231	53	5	289
Oct 2023	352	52	3	407
Nov 2023	291	52	4	347
Dec 2023	61	58	3	122
Jan 2024	83	45	3	131
Feb 2024	147	60	1	208
Mar 2024	75	46	2	123
Apr 2024	112	61	7	180
May 2024	74	51	2	127
Jun 2024	84	42	4	130
Jul 2024	43	24	3	70
Aug 2024	70	43	5	118
Sep 2024	63	27	0	90
Oct 2024	85	36	1	122
Nov 2024	76	29	4	109
Dec 2024	74	47	3	124
Jan 2025	84	32	4	120
Feb 2025	102	26	2	130
Mar 2025	103	23	1	127
Apr 2025	172	23	1	196
May 2025	113	31	0	144
Jun 2025	106	31	1	138
Jul 2025	117	32	2	151
Aug 2025	115	59	6	180
Sep 2025	115	47	1	163
Oct 2025	103	43	3	149
Nov 2025	105	38	4	147
Dec 2025	95	51	5	151
Jan 2026	108	56	11	175
Feb 2026	112	66	7	185
Mar 2026	51	33	1	85

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 23 Jan 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2015	121	75	3	199
Feb 2015	44	28	0	72
Mar 2015	28	29	1	58
Apr 2015	38	15	0	53
May 2015	305	292	8	605
Jun 2015	99	61	2	162
Jul 2015	80	67	3	150
Aug 2015	46	44	0	90
Sep 2015	41	57	9	107
Oct 2015	103	90	3	196
Nov 2015	53	61	1	115
Dec 2015	37	71	4	112
Jan 2016	55	57	0	112
Feb 2016	39	46	3	88
Mar 2016	49	49	19	117
Apr 2016	27	37	0	64
May 2016	24	38	2	64
Jun 2016	18	52	0	70
Jul 2016	15	25	1	41
Aug 2016	20	26	0	46
Sep 2016	23	36	1	60
Oct 2016	23	26	4	53
Nov 2016	20	17	7	44
Dec 2016	7	12	4	23
Jan 2017	35	36	14	85
Feb 2017	22	21	10	53
Mar 2017	48	39	23	110
Apr 2017	38	45	23	106
May 2017	39	47	14	100
Jun 2017	48	38	10	96
Jul 2017	41	46	8	95
Aug 2017	32	30	9	71
Sep 2017	37	52	8	97
Oct 2017	24	48	12	84
Nov 2017	43	65	9	117
Dec 2017	28	51	10	89
Jan 2018	22	35	8	65
Feb 2018	46	38	12	96
Mar 2018	30	46	10	86
Apr 2018	33	51	19	103
May 2018	45	51	8	104
Jun 2018	52	45	15	112
Jul 2018	53	49	13	115
Aug 2018	43	57	10	110
Sep 2018	40	51	14	105
Oct 2018	51	72	23	146
Nov 2018	46	75	16	137
Dec 2018	33	54	16	103
Jan 2019	44	48	19	111
Feb 2019	30	61	15	106
Mar 2019	36	59	14	109
Apr 2019	29	74	19	122
May 2019	25	82	11	118
Jun 2019	35	83	6	124
Jul 2019	45	69	18	132
Aug 2019	31	54	21	106
Sep 2019	24	54	9	87
Oct 2019	44	116	9	169
Nov 2019	43	109	12	164
Dec 2019	37	87	12	136
Jan 2020	42	84	18	144
Feb 2020	25	66	6	97
Mar 2020	40	114	12	166
Apr 2020	38	84	12	134
May 2020	30	67	10	107
Jun 2020	37	62	14	113
Jul 2020	51	53	24	128
Aug 2020	30	73	15	118
Sep 2020	41	68	12	121
Oct 2020	41	62	7	110
Nov 2020	56	62	13	131
Dec 2020	63	71	8	142
Jan 2021	87	82	15	184
Feb 2021	53	64	16	133
Mar 2021	56	45	23	124
Apr 2021	40	44	19	103
May 2021	59	51	19	129
Jun 2021	37	52	11	100
Jul 2021	47	43	22	112
Aug 2021	41	37	8	86
Sep 2021	53	43	3	99
Oct 2021	59	68	16	143
Nov 2021	41	57	6	104
Dec 2021	52	56	4	112
Jan 2022	59	59	5	123
Feb 2022	45	55	7	107
Mar 2022	62	53	6	121
Apr 2022	89	54	4	147
May 2022	72	32	3	107
Jun 2022	71	42	4	117
Jul 2022	37	26	0	63
Aug 2022	66	36	2	104
Sep 2022	50	47	5	102
Oct 2022	58	44	6	108
Nov 2022	76	51	4	131
Dec 2022	106	47	7	160
Jan 2023	84	55	8	147
Feb 2023	58	45	5	108
Mar 2023	106	70	6	182
Apr 2023	61	63	5	129
May 2023	45	54	1	100
Jun 2023	36	35	3	74
Jul 2023	69	36	5	110
Aug 2023	80	36	4	120
Sep 2023	231	53	5	289
Oct 2023	352	52	3	407
Nov 2023	291	52	4	347
Dec 2023	61	58	3	122
Jan 2024	83	45	3	131
Feb 2024	147	60	1	208
Mar 2024	75	46	2	123
Apr 2024	112	61	7	180
May 2024	74	51	2	127
Jun 2024	84	42	4	130
Jul 2024	43	24	3	70
Aug 2024	70	43	5	118
Sep 2024	63	27	0	90
Oct 2024	85	36	1	122
Nov 2024	76	29	4	109
Dec 2024	74	47	3	124
Jan 2025	84	32	4	120
Feb 2025	102	26	2	130
Mar 2025	103	23	1	127
Apr 2025	172	23	1	196
May 2025	113	31	0	144
Jun 2025	106	31	1	138
Jul 2025	117	32	2	151
Aug 2025	115	59	6	180
Sep 2025	115	47	1	163
Oct 2025	103	43	3	149
Nov 2025	105	38	4	147
Dec 2025	95	51	5	151
Jan 2026	108	56	11	175
Feb 2026	112	66	7	185
Mar 2026	51	33	1	85

Latest update: 11 Mar 2026

Short summary

This work presents, to our best knowledge, the first pan-European assessment of the future hydro-meteorological hazard based on an ensemble of the new EURO-CORDEX regional climate scenarios. We propose a novel approach, which shows how the change in the frequency of future floods in Europe is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections.