Articles | Volume 29, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025
Research article
 | 
06 Jan 2025
Research article |  | 06 Jan 2025

Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries

Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler

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Anonymous Referee: Referee Comment 1, Comment on egusphere-2024-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1463-RC1, 2024. 
Barnett, T. P.: Comparison of Near-Surface Air Temperature Variability in 11 Coupled Global Climate Models, J. Climate, 12, 511–518, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0511:CONSAT>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Benestad, R.: Downscaling Climate Information, vol. 1, Oxford University Press, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.27, 2016. a, b, c
Benestad, R.: Empirical-statistical downscaling of daily precipitation information in the Nordics, figshare [code and data set], https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25809196.v2, 2024. a, b, c
Benestad, R., Sillmann, J., Thorarinsdottir, T. L., Guttorp, P., Mesquita, M. D. S., Tye, M. R., Uotila, P., Maule, C. F., Thejll, P., Drews, M., and Parding, K. M.: New vigour involving statisticians to overcome ensemble fatigue, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 697–703, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3393, 2017. a
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Short summary
We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.