Articles | Volume 28, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024
Research article
 | 
25 Jul 2024
Research article |  | 25 Jul 2024

Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China

Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak

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Cited articles

Allan, R. P., Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L. S., Wilcox, L. J., and Zolina, O.: Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1472, 49–75, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337, 2020. 
Antoniadis, A., Lambert-Lacroix, S., and Poggi, J.-M.: Random forests for global sensitivity analysis: A selective review, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 206, 107312, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107312, 2021. 
Arsenault, R., Essou, G. R., and Brissette, F. P.: Improving hydrological model simulations with combined multi-input and multimodel averaging frameworks, J. Hydrol. Eng., 22, 04016066, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001489, 2017. 
Ashrafi, S. M., Gholami, H., and Najafi, M. R.: Uncertainties in runoff projection and hydrological drought assessment over Gharesu basin under CMIP5 RCP scenarios, J. Water Clim. Change, 11, 145–163, 2020. 
Ayantobo, O. O., Li, Y., Song, S., and Yao, N.: Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961–2013, J. Hydrol., 550, 549–567, 2017. 
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Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
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