Articles | Volume 28, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jul 2024
Research article |
| 25 Jul 2024
| 25 Jul 2024
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Rutong Liu
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
Louise Slater
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Shengyu Kang
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
Yuanhang Yang
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
Jiali Guo
Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, Hubei Province, China
College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei 443002, PR China
School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, PR China
Xiang Zhang
National Engineering Research Center of Geographic Information System, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, PR China
Aliaksandr Volchak
Engineering Systems and Ecology Faculty, Brest State Technical University, Moskovskaya 267, 224017 Brest, Belarus
Related authors
No articles found.
Ruikang Zhang, Dedi Liu, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Hua Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5229–5247, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash flood warnings cannot be effective without people’s responses to them. We propose a method to determine the threshold of issuing warnings based on a people’s response process simulation. The results show that adjusting the warning threshold according to people’s tolerance levels to the failed warnings can improve warning effectiveness, but the prerequisite is to increase forecasting accuracy and decrease forecasting variance.
Yuqi He, Jiahui Sheng, Xiang Li, Guang Chen, Xiang Zhang, and Yiqun Chen
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., X-4-2024, 155–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-4-2024-155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-4-2024-155-2024, 2024
Jiahui Sheng, Yuqi He, Tao Lu, Fang Wang, Yunjing Huang, Bingrong Leng, Xiang Zhang, and Yiqun Chen
ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., X-4-2024, 303–310, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-4-2024-303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-X-4-2024-303-2024, 2024
Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, and Andrew Wood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5X405, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5X405, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Here, we train and test a machine learning model to predict the monthly maximum daily streamflow up to four months ahead. We train the model on precipitation and temperature forecasts to produce probabilistic hindcasts for 579 stations across the UK for the period 2004–2016. We show skilful results up to four months ahead in many locations, although in general the skill declines with increasing lead time.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Julian Leyland, Simon J. Dadson, Sagy Cohen, Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Philip J. Ashworth, Georgina L. Bennett, Richard Boothroyd, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Helen Griffith, Richard Hardy, Laurence Hawker, Stuart McLelland, Jeffrey Neal, Andrew Nicholas, Andrew J. Tatem, Ellie Vahidi, Yinxue Liu, Justin Sheffield, Daniel R. Parsons, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3099–3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated six high-resolution global precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling. MSWEP and ERA5 showed better performance, but spatial variability was high. The findings highlight the importance of careful dataset selection for river discharge modelling due to the lack of a universally superior dataset. Further improvements in global precipitation data products are needed.
Marcus Buechel, Louise Slater, and Simon Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2081–2105, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2081-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Afforestation has been proposed internationally, but the hydrological implications of such large increases in the spatial extent of woodland are not fully understood. In this study, we use a land surface model to simulate hydrology across Great Britain with realistic afforestation scenarios and potential climate changes. Countrywide afforestation minimally influences hydrology, when compared to climate change, and reduces low streamflow whilst not lowering the highest flows.
Jinghua Xiong, Shenglian Guo, Abhishek, Jiabo Yin, Chongyu Xu, Jun Wang, and Jing Guo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1873–1895, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of climate systems challenge accurate estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in China. We use high-resolution precipitation data and climate models to explore the variability, trends, and shifts of PMP under climate change. Validated with multi-source estimations, our observations and simulations show significant spatiotemporal divergence of PMP over the country, which is projected to amplify in future due to land–atmosphere coupling.
Bailey J. Anderson, Manuela I. Brunner, Louise J. Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1567–1583, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Elasticityrefers to how much the amount of water in a river changes with precipitation. We usually calculate this using average streamflow values; however, the amount of water within rivers is also dependent on stored water sources. Here, we look at how elasticity varies across the streamflow distribution and show that not only do low and high streamflows respond differently to precipitation change, but also these differences vary with water storage availability.
Jiabo Yin, Louise J. Slater, Abdou Khouakhi, Le Yu, Pan Liu, Fupeng Li, Yadu Pokhrel, and Pierre Gentine
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5597–5615, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents long-term (i.e., 1940–2022) and high-resolution (i.e., 0.25°) monthly time series of TWS anomalies over the global land surface. The reconstruction is achieved by using a set of machine learning models with a large number of predictors, including climatic and hydrological variables, land use/land cover data, and vegetation indicators (e.g., leaf area index). Our proposed GTWS-MLrec performs overall as well as, or is more reliable than, previous TWS datasets.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Youjiang Shen, Dedi Liu, Liguang Jiang, Karina Nielsen, Jiabo Yin, Jun Liu, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 5671–5694, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A data gap of 338 Chinese reservoirs with their surface water area (SWA), water surface elevation (WSE), and reservoir water storage change (RWSC) during 2010–2021. Validation against the in situ observations of 93 reservoirs indicates the relatively high accuracy and reliability of the datasets. The unique and novel remotely sensed dataset would benefit studies involving many aspects (e.g., hydrological models, water resources related studies, and more).
Jinghua Xiong, Shenglian Guo, Abhishek, Jie Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6457–6476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Although the "dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter (DDWW)" paradigm is prevalent in summarizing wetting and drying trends, we show that only 11.01 %–40.84 % of the global land confirms and 10.21 %–35.43 % contradicts the paradigm during 1985–2014 from a terrestrial water storage change perspective. Similar proportions that intensify with the increasing emission scenarios persist until the end of the 21st century. Findings benefit understanding of global hydrological responses to climate change.
Yunfan Zhang, Lei Cheng, Lu Zhang, Shujing Qin, Liu Liu, Pan Liu, and Yanghe Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6379–6397, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6379-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6379-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Multiyear drought has been demonstrated to cause non-stationary rainfall–runoff relationship. But whether changes can invalidate the most fundamental method (i.e., paired-catchment method (PCM)) for separating vegetation change impacts is still unknown. Using paired-catchment data with 10-year drought, PCM is shown to still be reliable even in catchments with non-stationarity. A new framework is further proposed to separate impacts of two non-stationary drivers, using paired-catchment data.
Jing Tian, Zhengke Pan, Shenglian Guo, Jiabo Yin, Yanlai Zhou, and Jun Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4853–4874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4853-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4853-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most of the literature has focused on the runoff response to climate change, while neglecting the impacts of the potential variation in the active catchment water storage capacity (ACWSC) that plays an essential role in the transfer of climate inputs to the catchment runoff. This study aims to systematically identify the response of the ACWSC to a long-term meteorological drought and asymptotic climate change.
Louise J. Slater, Chris Huntingford, Richard F. Pywell, John W. Redhead, and Elizabeth J. Kendon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1377–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work considers how wheat yields are affected by weather conditions during the three main wheat growth stages in the UK. Impacts are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages. Future climate projections are beneficial for wheat yields, on average, but indicate a high risk of unseen weather conditions which farmers may struggle to adapt to and mitigate against.
Kang Xie, Pan Liu, Qian Xia, Xiao Li, Weibo Liu, Xiaojing Zhang, Lei Cheng, Guoqing Wang, and Jianyun Zhang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-217, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-217, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
There are currently no available common datasets of the Soil moisture storage capacity (SMSC) on a global scale, especially for hydrological models. Here, we produce a dataset of the SMSC parameter for global hydrological models. The global SMSC is constructed based on the deep residual network at 0.5° resolution. SMSC products are validated on global grids and typical catchments from different climatic regions.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3079–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Manuela I. Brunner and Louise J. Slater
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 469–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-469-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System to increase the sample size available to estimate the frequency of extreme flood events. We demonstrate that such ensemble pooling produces more robust estimates than observation-based estimates.
Jinghua Xiong, Shenglian Guo, Jie Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-645, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-645, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Although the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm is widely used to describe the trends in wetting and drying globally, we show that 27.1 % of global land agrees with the paradigm, while 22.4 % shows the opposite pattern during the period 1985–2014 from the perspective of terrestrial water storage change. Similar percentages are discovered under different scenarios during the future period. Our findings will benefit the understanding of hydrological responses under climate change.
Thomas Lees, Marcus Buechel, Bailey Anderson, Louise Slater, Steven Reece, Gemma Coxon, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5517–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used deep learning (DL) models to simulate the amount of water moving through a river channel (discharge) based on the rainfall, temperature and potential evaporation in the previous days. We tested the DL models on catchments across Great Britain finding that the model can accurately simulate hydrological systems across a variety of catchment conditions. Ultimately, the model struggled most in areas where there is chalky bedrock and where human influence on the catchment is large.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Ren Wang, Pierre Gentine, Jiabo Yin, Lijuan Chen, Jianyao Chen, and Longhui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3805–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Assessment of changes in the global water cycle has been a challenge. This study estimated long-term global latent heat and sensible heat fluxes for recent decades using machine learning and ground observations. The results found that the decline in evaporative fraction was typically accompanied by an increase in long-term runoff in over 27.06 % of the global land areas. The observation-driven findings emphasized that surface vegetation has great impacts in regulating water and energy cycles.
Xiaojing Zhang and Pan Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 711–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-711-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-711-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall–runoff models are useful tools for streamflow simulation. However, efforts are needed to investigate how their parameters vary in response to climate changes and human activities. Thus, this study proposes a new method for estimating time-varying parameters, by considering both simulation accuracy and parameter continuity. The results show the proposed method is effective for identifying temporal variations of parameters and can simultaneously provide good streamflow simulation.
Yunfan Zhang, Lei Cheng, Lu Zhang, Shujing Qin, Liu Liu, Pan Liu, Yanghe Liu, and Jun Xia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-5, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We use statistical methods and data assimilation method with physical model to verify that prolonged drought can induce non-stationarity in the control catchment rainfall-runoff relationship, which causes three inconsistent results at the Red Hill paired-catchment site. The findings are fundamental to correctly use long-term historical data and effectively assess ecohydrological impacts of vegetation change given that extreme climate events are projected to occur more frequently in the future.
Zhengke Pan, Pan Liu, Chong-Yu Xu, Lei Cheng, Jing Tian, Shujie Cheng, and Kang Xie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4387, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4369-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4369-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to identify the response of catchment water storage capacity (CWSC) to meteorological drought by examining the changes of hydrological-model parameters after drought events. This study improves our understanding of possible changes in the CWSC induced by a prolonged meteorological drought, which will help improve our ability to simulate the hydrological system under climate change.
Jingwen Zhang, Ximing Cai, Xiaohui Lei, Pan Liu, and Hao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-304, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-304, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time reservoir flood control operation is controlled manually by reservoir operators based on their experiences and justifications, rather than by computer automatically. We use a human-machine interactive modeling method to combine computer optimization model, human’s consideration, and reservoir stage observations for actual decisions on release for real-time reservoir flood control operation. The proposed method can reduce the flood risk and improve water use benefit simultaneously.
Quan Zhang, Huimin Lei, Dawen Yang, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, and Beijing Fang
Biogeosciences, 17, 2245–2262, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2245-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Research into climate change has been popular over the past few decades. Greenhouse gas emissions are found to be responsible for climate change. Among all the ecosystems, cropland is the main food source for mankind, therefore its carbon cycle and contribution to the global carbon balance interest us. Our evaluation of the typical wheat–maize rotation cropland over the North China Plain shows it is a net CO2 emission to the atmosphere and that emissions will continue to rise in the future.
Lei Gu, Jie Chen, Jiabo Yin, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Hui-Min Wang, Shenglian Guo, Liping Zhang, and Jong-Suk Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 451–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Focusing on the multifaceted nature of droughts, this study quantifies the change in global drought risks for 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming trajectories by a multi-model ensemble under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). Socioeconomic exposures are investigated by incorporating the dynamic shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) into the drought impact assessment. The results show that even the ambitious 1.5 °C warming level can cause substantial increases on the global scale.
Zhengke Pan, Pan Liu, Shida Gao, Jun Xia, Jie Chen, and Lei Cheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3405–3421, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3405-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3405-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the projection performance of hydrological models under contrasting climatic conditions supports robust decision making, which highlights the need to adopt time-varying parameters in hydrological modeling to reduce performance degradation. This study improves our understanding of the spatial coherence of time-varying parameters, which will help improve the projection performance under differing climatic conditions.
Louise J. Slater, Guillaume Thirel, Shaun Harrigan, Olivier Delaigue, Alexander Hurley, Abdou Khouakhi, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Claudia Vitolo, and Katie Smith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2939–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the benefits and advantages of R's usage in hydrology. We provide an overview of a typical hydrological workflow based on reproducible principles and packages for retrieval of hydro-meteorological data, spatial analysis, hydrological modelling, statistics, and the design of static and dynamic visualizations and documents. We discuss some of the challenges that arise when using R in hydrology as well as a roadmap for R’s future within the discipline.
John K. Hillier, Geoffrey R. Saville, Mike J. Smith, Alister J. Scott, Emma K. Raven, Jonathon Gascoigne, Louise J. Slater, Nevil Quinn, Andreas Tsanakas, Claire Souch, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Neil Macdonald, Alice M. Milner, Jennifer Loxton, Rebecca Wilebore, Alexandra Collins, Colin MacKechnie, Jaqui Tweddle, Sarah Moller, MacKenzie Dove, Harry Langford, and Jim Craig
Geosci. Commun., 2, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide there is intense interest in converting research excellence in universities into commercial success, but there has been scant attention devoted to exactly how individual scientists' workload and incentive structures may be a key barrier to this. Our work reveals the real challenge posed by a time-constrained university culture, better describes how work with business might fit into an academic job, and gives tips on working together in an
user guidefor scientists and (re)insurers.
Stefanie R. Lutz, Andrea Popp, Tim van Emmerik, Tom Gleeson, Liz Kalaugher, Karsten Möbius, Tonie Mudde, Brett Walton, Rolf Hut, Hubert Savenije, Louise J. Slater, Anna Solcerova, Cathelijne R. Stoof, and Matthias Zink
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3589–3599, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3589-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3589-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Media play a key role in the communication between scientists and the general public. However, the interaction between scientists and journalists is not always straightforward. In this opinion paper, we present insights from hydrologists and journalists into the benefits, aftermath and potential pitfalls of science–media interaction. We aim to encourage scientists to participate in the diverse and evolving media landscape, and we call on the scientific community to support scientists who do so.
Fiona J. Clubb, Simon M. Mudd, David T. Milodowski, Declan A. Valters, Louise J. Slater, Martin D. Hurst, and Ajay B. Limaye
Earth Surf. Dynam., 5, 369–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-369-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-369-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Floodplains and fluvial terraces can provide information about current and past river systems, helping to reveal how channels respond to changes in both climate and tectonics. We present a new method of identifying these features objectively from digital elevation models by analysing their slope and elevation compared to the modern river. We test our method in eight field sites, and find that it provides rapid and reliable extraction of floodplains and terraces across a range of landscapes.
Chao Deng, Pan Liu, Shenglian Guo, Zejun Li, and Dingbao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4949–4961, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4949-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4949-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological model parameters may vary in time under nonstationary conditions, i.e., climate change and anthropogenic activities. The technique of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed to identify the temporal variation of parameters for a two-parameter monthly water balance model. Through a synthesis experiment and two case studies, the EnKF is demonstrated to be useful for the identification of parameter variations.
Lingqi Li, Lihua Xiong, Chong-Yu Xu, Shenglian Guo, and Pan Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-619, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-619, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The study offers insights into future design floods that are inferred with both AM and POT samplings under nonstationarity caused by changing climate. Future design floods in nonstationarity context are usually (lower than) but not necessarily more different from stationary estimates. AM-based projection is more sensitive to climate change than POT estimates. The over-dispersion in POT arrival rate leads to the invalidation of Poisson assumption that the misuse may induce overestimated floods.
Chao Deng, Pan Liu, Shenglian Guo, Zejun Li, and Dingbao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2015-407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2015-407, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological model parameters may not be constant in a changing environment, i.e., climate change and human activities. The technique of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed to identify the temporal variation of parameters for a two-parameter monthly water balance model. Through a synthesis experiment and two case studies, the EnKF is demonstrated to be useful for the identification of parameter variation. The temporal variation parameter can be explained by catchment characteristic.
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell lifecycles with a copula-based approach
What Are the Key Soil Hydrological Processes to Control Soil Moisture Memory?
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Observation-driven model for calculating water harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Review of Gridded Climate Products and Their Use in Hydrological Analyses Reveals Overlaps, Gaps, and Need for More Objective Approach to Model Forcings
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1463, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a method for deriving the chance of heavy downpour, the maximum amount expected at various intervals, and explain how the rainfall changes. It suggests that increases are more due to increased amounts on wet days rather than more wet days, and the rainfall intensity is found to be sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1540, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to better model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and to reconstruct storm cell lifecycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential model for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Mohammad Ali Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how key hydrological processes enhance soil water retention and release in land surface models, crucial for accurate weather and climate forecasting. Experiments show that soil hydraulics effectively sustain soil moisture. Additionally, allowing surface water ponding and improving soil permeability through macropores both enhance soil moisture persistency in the models.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo de Rio
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-110, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligates us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting emerges as a complementary one in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate fog harvesting potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where fog harvesting could be a viable water source.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-58, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 60 gridded climate datasets [ground- (G), satellite- (S), reanalysis-based (R)]. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; but R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, though better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Cited articles
Allan, R. P., Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L. S., Wilcox, L. J., and Zolina, O.: Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1472, 49–75, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337, 2020.
Antoniadis, A., Lambert-Lacroix, S., and Poggi, J.-M.: Random forests for global sensitivity analysis: A selective review, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 206, 107312, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107312, 2021.
Arsenault, R., Essou, G. R., and Brissette, F. P.: Improving hydrological model simulations with combined multi-input and multimodel averaging frameworks, J. Hydrol. Eng., 22, 04016066, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001489, 2017.
Ashrafi, S. M., Gholami, H., and Najafi, M. R.: Uncertainties in runoff projection and hydrological drought assessment over Gharesu basin under CMIP5 RCP scenarios, J. Water Clim. Change, 11, 145–163, 2020.
Ayantobo, O. O., Li, Y., Song, S., and Yao, N.: Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961–2013, J. Hydrol., 550, 549–567, 2017.
Barker, L. J., Hannaford, J., Chiverton, A., and Svensson, C.: From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, 2016.
Bergström, S.: The HBV model, in: Computer models of watershed hydrology, 443–476, ISBN 978-0-918334-91-6, 1995.
Bergström, S. and Forsman, A.: DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCEPTUAL DETERMINISTIC RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL, Hydrol. Res., 4, 147–170, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.1973.0012, 1973.
Berne, A., Delrieu, G., Creutin, J.-D., and Obled, C.: Temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall measurements required for urban hydrology, J. Hydrol., 299, 166–179, 2004.
Byakatonda, J., Parida, B. P., Moalafhi, D. B., and Kenabatho, P. K.: Analysis of long term drought severity characteristics and trends across semiarid Botswana using two drought indices, Atmos. Res., 213, 492–508, 2018.
Cai, X., Zeng, R., Kang, W. H., Song, J., and Valocchi, A. J.: Strategic Planning for Drought Mitigation under Climate Change, J. Water Res. Pl., 141, 04015004, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000510, 2015.
Castle, S. L., Thomas, B. F., Reager, J. T., Rodell, M., Swenson, S. C., and Famiglietti, J. S.: Groundwater depletion during drought threatens future water security of the Colorado River Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5904–5911, 2014.
Catani, F., Lagomarsino, D., Segoni, S., and Tofani, V.: Landslide susceptibility estimation by random forests technique: sensitivity and scaling issues, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2815–2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2815-2013, 2013.
Chang, J., Guo, A., Wang, Y., Ha, Y., Zhang, R., Xue, L., and Tu, Z.: Reservoir operations to mitigate drought effects with a hedging policy triggered by the drought prevention limiting water level, Water Resour. Res., 55, 904–922, 2019.
Chen, H. and Sun, J.: Increased population exposure to extreme droughts in China due to 0.5 °C of additional warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 064011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab072e, 2019.
Chen, J., Li, C., Brissette, F. P., Chen, H., Wang, M., and Essou, G. R.: Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling, J. Hydrol., 560, 326–341, 2018.
Chen, Y., Guo, F., Wang, J., Cai, W., Wang, C., and Wang, K.: Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100, Scientific Data, 7, 83, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0421-y, 2020.
Chen, Z. and Yang, G.: Analysis of drought hazards in North China: distribution and interpretation, Nat. Hazards, 65, 279–294, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0358-3, 2013.
Chiew, F. H. S., Peel, M. C., and Western, A. W.: Application and testing of the simple rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD, in: Mathematical models of small watershed hydrology and applications, 335–367, ISBN 1-887201-35-1, 2002.
Cho, K., Van Merriënboer, B., Gulcehre, C., Bahdanau, D., Bougares, F., Schwenk, H., and Bengio, Y.: Learning phrase representations using RNN encoder-decoder for statistical machine translation, arXiv [preprint], arXiv:1406.1078, 2014.
Chowdary, J. S., Hu, K., Srinivas, G., Kosaka, Y., Wang, L., and Rao, K. K.: The Eurasian jet streams as conduits for East Asian monsoon variability, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 5, 233–244, 2019.
Dai, A., Zhao, T., and Chen, J.: Climate Change and Drought: a Precipitation and Evaporation Perspective, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 301–312, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0101-6, 2018.
Dikici, M.: Drought analysis with different indices for the Asi Basin (Turkey), Sci. Rep., 10, 20739, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77827-z, 2020.
Dikshit, A., Pradhan, B., and Huete, A.: An improved SPEI drought forecasting approach using the long short-term memory neural network, J. Environ. Manage., 283, 111979, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.111979, 2021a.
Dikshit, A., Pradhan, B., and Alamri, A. M.: Long lead time drought forecasting using lagged climate variables and a stacked long short-term memory model, Sci. Total Environ., 755, 142638, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142638, 2021b.
Ding, T. and Gao, H.: The record-breaking extreme drought in Yunnan Province, Southwest China during spring-early summer of 2019 and possible causes, J. Meteorol. Res.-PRC, 34, 997–1012, 2020.
Dixit, S., Atla, B. M., and Jayakumar, K. V.: Evolution and drought hazard mapping of future meteorological and hydrological droughts using CMIP6 model, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 36, 3857–3874, 2022.
Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O'Gorman, P. A., and Maher, N.: More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions, Nat. Climate Change, 6, 508–513, 2016.
Duan, Q., Sorooshian, S., and Gupta, V.: Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models, Water Resour. Res., 28, 1015–1031, 1992.
Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Masui, T., Takahashi, K., Herran, D. S., Dai, H., Hijioka, Y., and Kainuma, M.: SSP3: AIM implementation of shared socioeconomic pathways, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 268–283, 2017.
Ganguli, P. and Merz, B.: Trends in compound flooding in northwestern Europe during 1901–2014, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10810–10820, 2019.
Gers, F. A., Schmidhuber, J., and Cummins, F.: Learning to forget: continual prediction with LSTM, Neural Comput., 12, 2451–71, 2000.
Green, J. K., Berry, J., Ciais, P., Zhang, Y., and Gentine, P.: Amazon rainforest photosynthesis increases in response to atmospheric dryness, Science Advances, 6, eabb7232, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb7232, 2020.
Gu, L., Chen, J., Yin, J., Sullivan, S. C., Wang, H.-M., Guo, S., Zhang, L., and Kim, J.-S.: Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 451–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020, 2020a.
Gu, L., Chen, J., Yin, J., Xu, C.-Y., and Zhou, J.: Responses of precipitation and runoff to climate warming and implications for future drought changes in China, Earths Future, 8, e2020EF001718, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001718, 2020b.
Gu, L., Yin, J., Zhang, H., Wang, H.-M., Yang, G., and Wu, X.: On future flood magnitudes and estimation uncertainty across 151 catchments in mainland China, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E779–E800, 2021.
Gu, L., Yin, J., Wang, S., Chen, J., Qin, H., Yan, X., He, S., and Zhao, T.: How well do the multi-satellite and atmospheric reanalysis products perform in hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 617, 128920, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128920, 2023.
He, B., Lü, A., Wu, J., Zhao, L., and Liu, M.: Drought hazard assessment and spatial characteristics analysis in China, J. Geogr. Sci., 21, 235–249, 2011.
Hu, C., Guo, S., Xiong, L., and Peng, D.: A modified Xinanjiang model and its application in northern China, Hydrol. Res., 36, 175–192, 2005.
Jiang, T., Chen, Y. D., Xu, C., Chen, X., Chen, X., and Singh, V. P.: Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China, J. Hydrol., 336, 316–333, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.010, 2007.
Jiang, T., Jing, Z., Cheng, J., Lige, C., Yanjun, W., Hemin, S., Anqian, W., Jinlong, H., Buda, S., and Run, W.: National and provincial population projected to 2100 under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China, Advances in Climate Change Research, 13, 128, 28–137 https://doi.org/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.249, 2017.
Jiang, T., Jing, Z., Li-Ge, C. A. O., Yan-Jun, W., Bu-Da, S. U., Cheng, J., Run, W., and Chao, G. A. O.: Projection of national and provincial economy under the shared socioeconomic pathways in China, Advances in Climate Change Research, 14, 50–58, http://www.climatechange.cn/EN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.161 (last access: 20 July 2024), 2018.
Kang, S., Yin, J., Gu, L., Yang, Y., Liu, D., and Slater, L.: Observation-constrained projection of flood risks and socioeconomic exposure in China, Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF003308, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003308, 2023.
Kim, J. H., Sung, J. H., Chung, E.-S., Kim, S. U., Son, M., and Shiru, M. S.: Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5, Sustainability, 13, 2066, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13042066, 2021.
Koutsoyiannis, D.: Clausius–Clapeyron equation and saturation vapour pressure: simple theory reconciled with practice, Eur. J. Phys., 33, 295, https://doi.org/10.1088/0143-0807/33/2/295, 2012.
Kriauciuniene, J., Jakimavicius, D., Sarauskiene, D., and Kaliatka, T.: Estimation of uncertainty sources in the projections of Lithuanian river runoff, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A., 27, 769–784, 2013.
Kumar, R., Musuuza, J. L., Van Loon, A. F., Teuling, A. J., Barthel, R., Ten Broek, J., Mai, J., Samaniego, L., and Attinger, S.: Multiscale evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index as a groundwater drought indicator, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1117–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1117-2016, 2016.
Kundzewicz, Z., Su, B., Wang, Y., Xia, J., Huang, J., and Jiang, T.: Flood risk and its reduction in China, Adv. Water Resour., 130, 37–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.05.020, 2019.
Kunnath-Poovakka, A. and Eldho, T. I.: A comparative study of conceptual rainfall-runoff models GR4J, AWBM and Sacramento at catchments in the upper Godavari river basin, India, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 128, 33, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-1055-8, 2019.
Lange, S.: Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3055–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, 2019.
Lange, S. and Büchner, M.: ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted atmospheric climate input data (v1.1), ISIMIP Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.842396.1, 2021.
Li, D. X.: On default correlation: A copula function approach, SSRN Electr., 9, 187289, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.187289, 1999.
Liu, J., Zhang, Q., Singh, V. P., and Shi, P.: Contribution of multiple climatic variables and human activities to streamflow changes across China, J. Hydrol., 545, 145–162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.016, 2017.
Liu, R.: The streamflow data simulated by 10 hybrid terrestrial models under CMIP6, and TWSA trends data, OSF [data set], https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/FVYSE, 2023.
Liu, Y., Hu, Z.-Z., Wu, R., and Yuan, X.: Causes and predictability of the 2021 spring southwestern China severe drought, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1766–1776, 2022.
Liu, Z., Deng, Z., He, G., Wang, H., Zhang, X., Lin, J., Qi, Y., and Liang, X.: Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, 141–155, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00244-x, 2022.
Lu, R., Xu, K., Chen, R., Chen, W., Li, F., and Lv, C.: Heat waves in summer 2022 and increasing concern regarding heat waves in general, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 16, 100290, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2022.100290, 2023.
Ma, N., Szilagyi, J., Zhang, Y., and Liu, W.: Complementary-Relationship-Based Modeling of Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Across China During 1982–2012: Validations and Spatiotemporal Analyses, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 4326–4351, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029850, 2019.
Mallapaty, S.: China's extreme weather challenges scientists studying it, Nature, 609, 888, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02954-8, 2022.
Martel, J., Demeester, K., Brissette, F., Poulin, A., and Arsenault, R.: HMETS-A simple and efficient hydrology model for teaching hydrological modelling, flow forecasting and climate change impacts, Int. J. Eng. Educ., 33, 1307–1316, 2017.
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020.
Mokhtar, A., Jalali, M., He, H., Al-Ansari, N., Elbeltagi, A., Alsafadi, K., Abdo, H. G., Sammen, S. S., Gyasi-Agyei, Y., and Rodrigo-Comino, J.: Estimation of SPEI meteorological drought using machine learning algorithms, IEEE Access, 9, 65503–65523, 2021.
Muñoz Sabater, J.: ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac, 2019.
Myronidis, D., Ioannou, K., Fotakis, D., and Dörflinger, G.: Streamflow and hydrological drought trend analysis and forecasting in Cyprus, Water Resour. Manag., 32, 1759–1776, 2018.
Nabaei, S., Sharafati, A., Yaseen, Z. M., and Shahid, S.: Copula based assessment of meteorological drought characteristics: regional investigation of Iran, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 276, 107611, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.06.010, 2019.
Nie, N., Zhang, W., Chen, H., and Guo, H.: A global hydrological drought index dataset based on gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) data, Water Resour. Manag., 32, 1275–1290, 2018.
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016.
Oudin, L., Hervieu, F., Michel, C., Perrin, C., Andréassian, V., Anctil, F., and Loumagne, C.: Which potential evapotranspiration input for a lumped rainfall–runoff model?: Part 2—Towards a simple and efficient potential evapotranspiration model for rainfall–runoff modelling, J. Hydrol., 303, 290–306, 2005.
Pelosi, A., Terribile, F., D'Urso, G., and Chirico, G. B.: Comparison of ERA5-Land and UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX reanalysis data with spatially interpolated weather observations for the regional assessment of reference evapotranspiration, Water, 12, 1669, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061669, 2020.
Perrin, C., Michel, C., and Andréassian, V.: Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation, J. Hydrol., 279, 275–289, 2003.
Piao, S., Ciais, P., Huang, Y., Shen, Z., Peng, S., Li, J., Zhou, L., Liu, H., Ma, Y., Ding, Y., Friedlingstein, P., Liu, C., Tan, K., Yu, Y., Zhang, T., and Fang, J.: The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China, Nature, 467, 43–51, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09364, 2010.
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., and Gudmundsson, L.: Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change, Nat. Climate Change, 11, 226–233, 2021.
Porter, J. W. and McMahon, T. A.: Application of a catchment model in southeastern Australia, J. Hydrol., 24, 121–134, 1975.
Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Tignor, M., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., and Möller, V.: IPCC: Summary for policymakers, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926.001, 2022.
Qi, W., Chen, J., Li, L., Xu, C., Li, J., Xiang, Y., and Zhang, S.: A framework to regionalize conceptual model parameters for global hydrological modeling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-127, 2020.
Rahmati, O., Falah, F., Dayal, K. S., Deo, R. C., Mohammadi, F., Biggs, T., Moghaddam, D. D., Naghibi, S. A., and Bui, D. T.: Machine learning approaches for spatial modeling of agricultural droughts in the south-east region of Queensland Australia, Sci. Total Environ., 699, 134230, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134230, 2020.
Ren-Jun, Z.: The Xinanjiang model applied in China, J. Hydrol., 135, 371–381, 1992.
Schmidt, R., Schwintzer, P., Flechtner, F., Reigber, C., Güntner, A., Döll, P., Ramillien, G., Cazenave, A., Petrovic, S., and Jochmann, H.: GRACE observations of changes in continental water storage, Global Planet. Change, 50, 112–126, 2006.
Sherstinsky, A.: Fundamentals of recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network, Physica D, 404, 132306, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2019.132306, 2020.
Shin, M.-J. and Kim, C.-S.: Component combination test to investigate improvement of the IHACRES and GR4J rainfall–runoff models, Water, 13, 2126, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13152126, 2021.
Shukla, S. and Wood, A. W.: Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02405, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032487, 2008.
Simmons, A. J., Untch, A., Jakob, C., Kållberg, P., and Undén, P.: Stratospheric water vapour and tropical tropopause temperatures in Ecmwf analyses and multi-year simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 353–386, 1999.
Sohn, J. A., Saha, S., and Bauhus, J.: Potential of forest thinning to mitigate drought stress: A meta-analysis, Forest Ecol. Manag., 380, 261–273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.07.046, 2016.
Sönmez, A. Y. and Kale, S.: Climate change effects on annual streamflow of Filyos River (Turkey), J. Water Clim. Change, 11, 420–433, https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.060, 2018.
Stewart, I. T.: Changes in snowpack and snowmelt runoff for key mountain regions, Hydrol. Process., 23, 78–94, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7128, 2009.
Tabari, H.: Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability, Sci. Rep., 10, 1–10, 2020.
Tapley, B. D., Bettadpur, S., Ries, J. C., Thompson, P. F., and Watkins, M. M.: GRACE measurements of mass variability in the Earth system, Science, 305, 503–505, 2004.
Tian, Y., Xu, Y.-P., and Zhang, X.-J.: Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models, Water Resour. Manag., 27, 2871–2888, 2013.
Tirivarombo, S., Osupile, D., and Eliasson, P.: Drought monitoring and analysis: standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardised precipitation index (SPI), Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. A/B/C, 106, 1–10, 2018.
Udall, B. and Overpeck, J.: The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future, Water Resour. Res., 53, 2404–2418, 2017.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., López-Moreno, J. I., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Azorin-Molina, C., and Morán-Tejeda, E.: Accurate computation of a streamflow drought index, J. Hydrol. Eng., 17, 318–332, 2012.
Wang, Z., Li, J., Lai, C., Zeng, Z., Zhong, R., Chen, X., Zhou, X., and Wang, M.: Does drought in China show a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2009?, Sci. Total Environ., 579, 314–324, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.098, 2017.
Weinfurt, K. P.: Multivariate analysis of variance, in: Reading and understanding multivariate statistics, American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, US, 245–276, ISBN: 1-55798-273-2, 1995.
Wilhite, D. A., Svoboda, M. D., and Hayes, M. J.: Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness, Water Resour. Manage., 21, 763–774, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9076-5, 2007.
Woolway, R. I., Kraemer, B. M., Lenters, J. D., Merchant, C. J., O'Reilly, C. M., and Sharma, S.: Global lake responses to climate change, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 388–403, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0067-5, 2020.
Wu, J., Chen, X., Yao, H., and Zhang, D.: Multi-timescale assessment of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological drought, Sci. Total Environ., 765, 144232, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144232, 2021.
Wu, X., Guo, S., Yin, J., Yang, G., Zhong, Y., and Liu, D.: On the event-based extreme precipitation across China: Time distribution patterns, trends, and return levels, J. Hydrol., 562, 305–317, 2018.
Xiao-jun, W., Jian-yun, Z., Shahid, S., ElMahdi, A., Rui-min, H., Zhen-xin, B., and Ali, M.: Water resources management strategy for adaptation to droughts in China, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Gl., 17, 923–937, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9352-4, 2012.
Xiujia, C., Guanghua, Y., Jian, G., Ningning, M., and Zihao, W.: Application of WNN-PSO model in drought prediction at crop growth stages: A case study of spring maize in semi-arid regions of northern China, Comput. Electron. Agr., 199, 107155, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2022.107155, 2022.
Xu, K., Yang, D., Yang, H., Li, Z., Qin, Y., and Shen, Y.: Spatio-temporal variation of drought in China during 1961–2012: A climatic perspective, J. Hydrol., 526, 253–264, 2015.
Yao, F., Livneh, B., Rajagopalan, B., Wang, J., Crétaux, J.-F., Wada, Y., and Berge-Nguyen, M.: Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage, Science, 380, 743–749, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo2812, 2023.
Yevjevich, V. M.: An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts, PhD thesis, Libraries, Colorado State University, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(69)90110-3, 1967.
Yihdego, Y., Vaheddoost, B., and Al-Weshah, R. A.: Drought indices and indicators revisited, Arab. J. Geosci., 12, 69, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4237-z, 2019.
Yilmaz, M.: Accuracy assessment of temperature trends from ERA5 and ERA5-Land, Sci. Total Environ., 856, 159182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159182, 2023.
Yin, J., Guo, S., He, S., Guo, J., Hong, X., and Liu, Z.: A copula-based analysis of projected climate changes to bivariate flood quantiles, J. Hydrol., 566, 23–42, 2018.
Yin, J., Guo, S., Gu, L., He, S., Ba, H., Tian, J., Li, Q., and Chen, J.: Projected changes of bivariate flood quantiles and estimation uncertainty based on multi-model ensembles over China, J. Hydrol., 585, 124760, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124760, 2020.
Yin, J., Guo, S., Gu, L., Zeng, Z., Liu, D., Chen, J., Shen, Y., and Xu, C.-Y.: Blending multi-satellite, atmospheric reanalysis and gauge precipitation products to facilitate hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 593, 125878, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125878, 2021a.
Yin, J., Guo, S., Gentine, P., Sullivan, S. C., Gu, L., He, S., Chen, J., and Liu, P.: Does the hook structure constrain future flood intensification under anthropogenic climate warming?, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR028491, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028491, 2021b.
Yin, J., Guo, S., Yang, Y., Chen, J., Gu, L., Wang, J., He, S., Wu, B., and Xiong, J.: Projection of droughts and their socioeconomic exposures based on terrestrial water storage anomaly over China, Sci. China Earth Sci., 65, 1772–1787, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-021-9927-x, 2022.
Yin, J., Gentine, P., Slater, L., Gu, L., Pokhrel, Y., Hanasaki, N., Guo, S., Xiong, L., and Schlenker, W.: Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events, Nat. Sustain., 6, 259–272, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01024-1, 2023a.
Yin, J., Guo, S., Wang, J., Chen, J., Zhang, Q., Gu, L., Yang, Y., Tian, J., Xiong, L., and Zhang, Y.: Thermodynamic driving mechanisms for the formation of global precipitation extremes and ecohydrological effects, Sci. China Earth Sci., 66, 92–110, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-022-9987-0, 2023b.
Yu, B. and Zhu, Z.: A comparative assessment of AWBM and SimHyd for forested watersheds, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 60, 1200–1212, 2015.
Yu, Y., Si, X., Hu, C., and Zhang, J.: A Review of Recurrent Neural Networks: LSTM Cells and Network Architectures, Neural Comput., 31, 1235–1270, 2019.
Zhai, P. M. and Zou, X. K.: Changes in temperature and precipitation and their impacts on drought in China during 1951–2003, Advances in Climate Change Research, 1, 16–18, 2005.
Zhang, F., Deng, X., Xie, L., and Xu, N.: China's energy-related carbon emissions projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways, Resour. Conserv. Recy., 168, 105456, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105456, 2021.
Zhang, G., Gan, T. Y., and Su, X.: Twenty-first century drought analysis across China under climate change, Clim. Dynam., 59, 1665–1685, 2022.
Zhao, M., A, G., Velicogna, I., and Kimball, J. S.: Satellite Observations of Regional Drought Severity in the Continental United States Using GRACE-Based Terrestrial Water Storage Changes, J. Climate, 30, 6297–6308, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0458.1, 2017.
Zheng, J., Wang, H., and Liu, B.: Impact of the long-term precipitation and land use changes on runoff variations in a humid subtropical river basin of China, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 42, 101136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101136, 2022.
Zhu, Q., Luo, Y., Zhou, D., Xu, Y.-P., Wang, G., and Tian, Y.: Drought prediction using in situ and remote sensing products with SVM over the Xiang River Basin, China, Nat. Hazards, 105, 2161–2185, 2021.
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of...
