Articles | Volume 28, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Rutong Liu
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
Louise Slater
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Shengyu Kang
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
Yuanhang Yang
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430072, PR China
Jiali Guo
Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, Hubei Province, China
College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, Hubei 443002, PR China
School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, PR China
Xiang Zhang
National Engineering Research Center of Geographic Information System, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, PR China
Aliaksandr Volchak
Engineering Systems and Ecology Faculty, Brest State Technical University, Moskovskaya 267, 224017 Brest, Belarus
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Cited
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Deep learning-constrained projection of global fluvial floods and their socioeconomic implications under global warming X. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae19fe
- A Century of Data: Machine Learning Approaches to Drought Prediction and Trend Analysis in Arid Regions M. Bouaziz et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17243567
- Central Asian vegetation is more sensitive to soil moisture drought than to heat and meteorological drought L. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130220
- Drought dynamics across the hydrological cycle – an extensive validation of the National Hydrological Model of Denmark R. Schneider et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4019-2026
- Hydropower vulnerability to drought-flood abrupt alternation under climate change Y. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.139212
- Evolution of nonstationary hydrological drought characteristics in the UK under warming S. Jha et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2685-2026
- An extension of the logistic function to account for nonstationary drought losses T. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2429-2025
- Effect of terrestrial water storage deficit on economic growth for China Y. Ren et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2025.2537402
- Monitoring and forecasting agricultural drought in Golestan Province, Iran (2001–2028): an integrated approach using remote sensing and machine learning M. Jahanbakhsh & M. Akhoondzadeh https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2025.11.113
- Research Advances in Projections of Regional Climate Change over China B. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-025-4913-8
- Modelling the Dependence Between Drought and Heatwave Extremes in Kenya Using an Integrated EVT-Copula-XGBoost Framework C. Mulwa et al. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20261101.11
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Deep learning-constrained projection of global fluvial floods and their socioeconomic implications under global warming X. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae19fe
- A Century of Data: Machine Learning Approaches to Drought Prediction and Trend Analysis in Arid Regions M. Bouaziz et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17243567
- Central Asian vegetation is more sensitive to soil moisture drought than to heat and meteorological drought L. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130220
- Drought dynamics across the hydrological cycle – an extensive validation of the National Hydrological Model of Denmark R. Schneider et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4019-2026
- Hydropower vulnerability to drought-flood abrupt alternation under climate change Y. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.139212
- Evolution of nonstationary hydrological drought characteristics in the UK under warming S. Jha et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2685-2026
- An extension of the logistic function to account for nonstationary drought losses T. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2429-2025
- Effect of terrestrial water storage deficit on economic growth for China Y. Ren et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2025.2537402
- Monitoring and forecasting agricultural drought in Golestan Province, Iran (2001–2028): an integrated approach using remote sensing and machine learning M. Jahanbakhsh & M. Akhoondzadeh https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2025.11.113
- Research Advances in Projections of Regional Climate Change over China B. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-025-4913-8
- Modelling the Dependence Between Drought and Heatwave Extremes in Kenya Using an Integrated EVT-Copula-XGBoost Framework C. Mulwa et al. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20261101.11
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Jul 2026
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of...