Articles | Volume 28, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Mar 2024
Research article |
| 27 Mar 2024
| 27 Mar 2024
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Georgina M. Falster
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
Nicky M. Wright
Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
Now at: EarthByte Group, School of Geosciences, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 Sydney, Australia
Nerilie J. Abram
Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
Anna M. Ukkola
Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052 Sydney, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052 Sydney, Australia
Benjamin J. Henley
School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522 Wollongong, Australia
Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522 Wollongong, Australia
Related authors
Georgina Falster, Gab Abramowitz, Sanaa Hobeichi, Cath Hughes, Pauline Treble, Nerilie J. Abram, Michael I. Bird, Alexandre Cauquoin, Bronwyn Dixon, Russell Drysdale, Chenhui Jin, Niels Munksgaard, Bernadette Proemse, Jonathan J. Tyler, Martin Werner, and Carol Tadros
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2458, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We used a random forest approach to produce estimates of monthly precipitation stable isotope variability from 1962–2023, at high resolution across the entire Australian continent. Comprehensive skill and sensitivity testing shows that our random forest models skilfully predict precipitation isotope values in places and times that observations are not available. We make all outputs publicly available, facilitating use in fields from ecology and hydrology to archaeology and forensic science.
Georgina Falster, Gab Abramowitz, Sanaa Hobeichi, Cath Hughes, Pauline Treble, Nerilie J. Abram, Michael I. Bird, Alexandre Cauquoin, Bronwyn Dixon, Russell Drysdale, Chenhui Jin, Niels Munksgaard, Bernadette Proemse, Jonathan J. Tyler, Martin Werner, and Carol Tadros
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2458, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We used a random forest approach to produce estimates of monthly precipitation stable isotope variability from 1962–2023, at high resolution across the entire Australian continent. Comprehensive skill and sensitivity testing shows that our random forest models skilfully predict precipitation isotope values in places and times that observations are not available. We make all outputs publicly available, facilitating use in fields from ecology and hydrology to archaeology and forensic science.
Jessica M. A. Macha, Andrew N. Mackintosh, Felicity S. McCormack, Benjamin J. Henley, Helen V. McGregor, Christiaan T. van Dalum, and Ariaan Purich
The Cryosphere, 19, 1915–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1915-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have global impacts, but their Antarctic impacts are poorly understood. Examining Antarctic snow accumulation anomalies of past observed extreme ENSO events, we show that accumulation changes differ between events and are insignificant during most events. Significant changes occur during 2015/16 and in Enderby Land during all extreme El Niños. Historical data limit conclusions, but future greater extremes could cause Antarctic accumulation changes.
Andrew D. King, Nerilie J. Abram, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will ultimately increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.
Matthew O. Grant, Anna M. Ukkola, Elisabeth Vogel, Sanaa Hobeichi, Andy J. Pitman, Alex Raymond Borowiak, and Keirnan Fowler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4024, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Australia is regularly subjected to severe and widespread drought. By using multiple drought indicators, we show that while there have been widespread decreases in droughts since the beginning of the 20th century. However, many regions have seen an increase in droughts in more recent decades. Despite these changes, our analysis shows that they remain within the range of observed variability and are not unprecedented in the context of past droughts.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin G. De Kauwe, Samuel Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig R. Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
Biogeosciences, 21, 5517–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5517-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates land models – computer-based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics; land carbon, water, and energy cycles; and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning and AI approaches to show that, despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Anna M. Ukkola, Steven Thomas, Elisabeth Vogel, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Steven Siems, Vjekoslav Matic, and Wendy Sharples
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X56110, https://doi.org/10.31223/X56110, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future drought changes in Australia –the driest inhabited continent on Earth– have remained stubbornly uncertain. We assess future drought changes in Australia using projections from climate and hydrological models. We show an increasing probability of drought over highly-populated and agricultural regions of Australia in coming decades, suggesting potential impacts on agricultural activities, ecosystems and urban water supply.
Laura Velasquez-Jimenez and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 20, 1125–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1125-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influences climate in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the effects of calculation method and data used to calculate the SAM index and how it influences the relationship between the SAM and climate. We propose a method to calculate a natural SAM index that facilitates consistency between studies, including when using different data resolutions, avoiding distortion of SAM impacts and allowing for more reliable results of past and future SAM trends.
Tessa R. Vance, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Camilla K. Crockart, Aylin DeCampo, Vincent Favier, Vasileios Gkinis, Margaret Harlan, Sarah L. Jackson, Helle A. Kjær, Chelsea A. Long, Meredith K. Nation, Christopher T. Plummer, Delia Segato, Andrea Spolaor, and Paul T. Vallelonga
Clim. Past, 20, 969–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the chronologies from the new Mount Brown South ice cores from East Antarctica, which were developed by counting annual layers in the ice core data and aligning these to volcanic sulfate signatures. The uncertainty in the dating is quantified, and we discuss initial results from seasonal cycle analysis and mean annual concentrations. The chronologies will underpin the development of new proxy records for East Antarctica spanning the past millennium.
Lingwei Zhang, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Lenneke M. Jong, Sarah S. Thompson, Alison S. Criscitiello, and Nerilie J. Abram
The Cryosphere, 17, 5155–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Physical features in ice cores provide unique records of past variability. We identified 1–2 mm ice layers without bubbles in surface ice cores from Law Dome, East Antarctica, occurring on average five times per year. The origin of these bubble-free layers is unknown. In this study, we investigate whether they have the potential to record past atmospheric processes and circulation. We find that the bubble-free layers are linked to accumulation hiatus events and meridional moisture transport.
Sarah L. Jackson, Tessa R. Vance, Camilla Crockart, Andrew Moy, Christopher Plummer, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 19, 1653–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ice core records are useful tools for reconstructing past climate. However, ice cores favour recording climate conditions at times when snowfall occurs. Large snowfall events in Antarctica are often associated with warmer-than-usual temperatures. We show that this results in a tendency for the Mount Brown South ice core record to preserve a temperature record biased to the climate conditions that exist during extreme events, rather than a temperature record that reflects the mean annual climate.
Rachel M. Walter, Hussein R. Sayani, Thomas Felis, Kim M. Cobb, Nerilie J. Abram, Ariella K. Arzey, Alyssa R. Atwood, Logan D. Brenner, Émilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Bethany Ellis, Julien Emile-Geay, Matthew J. Fischer, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Jessica A. Hargreaves, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Hedwig Krawczyk, Nicholas P. McKay, Andrea L. Moore, Sujata A. Murty, Maria Rosabelle Ong, Riovie D. Ramos, Emma V. Reed, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Sara C. Sanchez, Jens Zinke, and the PAGES CoralHydro2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2081–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately quantifying how the global hydrological cycle will change in the future remains challenging due to the limited availability of historical climate data from the tropics. Here we present the CoralHydro2k database – a new compilation of peer-reviewed coral-based climate records from the last 2000 years. This paper details the records included in the database and where the database can be accessed and demonstrates how the database can investigate past tropical climate variability.
Keirnan Fowler, Murray Peel, Margarita Saft, Tim J. Peterson, Andrew Western, Lawrence Band, Cuan Petheram, Sandra Dharmadi, Kim Seong Tan, Lu Zhang, Patrick Lane, Anthony Kiem, Lucy Marshall, Anne Griebel, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dongryeol Ryu, Giancarlo Bonotto, Conrad Wasko, Anna Ukkola, Clare Stephens, Andrew Frost, Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, Patricia Saco, Hongxing Zheng, Francis Chiew, Edoardo Daly, Glen Walker, R. Willem Vervoort, Justin Hughes, Luca Trotter, Brad Neal, Ian Cartwright, and Rory Nathan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6073–6120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, we have seen multi-year droughts tending to cause shifts in the relationship between rainfall and streamflow. In shifted catchments that have not recovered, an average rainfall year produces less streamflow today than it did pre-drought. We take a multi-disciplinary approach to understand why these shifts occur, focusing on Australia's over-10-year Millennium Drought. We evaluate multiple hypotheses against evidence, with particular focus on the key role of groundwater processes.
Jacinda A. O'Connor, Benjamin J. Henley, Matthew T. Brookhouse, and Kathryn J. Allen
Clim. Past, 18, 2567–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2567-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2567-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tree-ring records provide a unique window into past climate variability. However, there are few such records from the Australian mainland. We present results from nine cross-sections of an alpine tree species from the Victorian Alps from 1929–1998. The tree-ring widths have significant correlations with winter temperature, precipitation and snow depth. The intensity of reflected blue light from the wood surface shows a strong response to growing season temperature and winter precipitation.
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Tobias Erhardt, Matthias Bigler, Urs Federer, Gideon Gfeller, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Stowasser, Regine Röthlisberger, Simon Schüpbach, Urs Ruth, Birthe Twarloh, Anna Wegner, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Takayuki Kuramoto, Helle A. Kjær, Paul T. Vallelonga, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen, Margareta E. Hansson, Ailsa K. Benton, Louise G. Fleet, Rob Mulvaney, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nerilie Abram, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1215–1231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The datasets presented alongside this manuscript contain high-resolution concentration measurements of chemical impurities in deep ice cores, NGRIP and NEEM, from the Greenland ice sheet. The impurities originate from the deposition of aerosols to the surface of the ice sheet and are influenced by source, transport and deposition processes. Together, these records contain detailed, multi-parameter records of past climate variability over the last glacial period.
Anna M. Ukkola, Gab Abramowitz, and Martin G. De Kauwe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 449–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-449-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-449-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flux towers provide measurements of water, energy, and carbon fluxes. Flux tower data are invaluable in improving and evaluating land models but are not suited to modelling applications as published. Here we present flux tower data tailored for land modelling, encompassing 170 sites globally. Our dataset resolves several key limitations hindering the use of flux tower data in land modelling, including incomplete forcing variable, data format, and low data quality.
Sami W. Rifai, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Lucas A. Cernusak, Patrick Meir, Belinda E. Medlyn, and Andy J. Pitman
Biogeosciences, 19, 491–515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Australia's woody ecosystems have experienced widespread greening despite a warming climate and repeated record-breaking droughts and heat waves. Increasing atmospheric CO2 increases plant water use efficiency, yet quantifying the CO2 effect is complicated due to co-occurring effects of global change. Here we harmonized a 38-year satellite record to separate the effects of climate change, land use change, and disturbance to quantify the CO2 fertilization effect on the greening phenomenon.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Weidong Guo, Sanaa Hobeichi, and Peter R. Briggs
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 919–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater can buffer the impacts of drought and heatwaves on ecosystems, which is often neglected in model studies. Using a land surface model with groundwater, we explained how groundwater sustains transpiration and eases heat pressure on plants in heatwaves during multi-year droughts. Our results showed the groundwater’s influences diminish as drought extends and are regulated by plant physiology. We suggest neglecting groundwater in models may overstate projected future heatwave intensity.
Camilla K. Crockart, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Mark A. J. Curran, Vincent Favier, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Christoph Kittel, Helle A. Kjær, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Lenneke M. Jong, Andrew D. Moy, Christopher T. Plummer, Paul T. Vallelonga, Jonathan Wille, and Lingwei Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 1795–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present preliminary analyses of the annual sea salt concentrations and snowfall accumulation in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South. We compare this record with an updated Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record over the period 1975–2016. The Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger and inverse signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (in austral winter and spring) compared to the Law Dome record (in summer).
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Teresa E. Gimeno, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dani Or, Jinyan Yang, and David S. Ellsworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 447–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Land surface model (LSM) is a critical tool to study land responses to droughts and heatwaves, but lacking comprehensive observations limited past model evaluations. Here we use a novel dataset at a water-limited site, evaluate a typical LSM with a range of competing model hypotheses widely used in LSMs and identify marked uncertainty due to the differing process assumptions. We show the extensive observations constrain model processes and allow better simulated land responses to these extremes.
Bronwen L. Konecky, Nicholas P. McKay, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Laia Comas-Bru, Emilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Georgina M. Falster, Matt J. Fischer, Matthew D. Jones, Lukas Jonkers, Darrell S. Kaufman, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, Belen Martrat, Thomas Opel, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Hussein R. Sayani, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Diane M. Thompson, Jonathan J. Tyler, Nerilie J. Abram, Alyssa R. Atwood, Olivier Cartapanis, Jessica L. Conroy, Mark A. Curran, Sylvia G. Dee, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Zoltán Kern, Trevor J. Porter, Samantha L. Stevenson, Lucien von Gunten, and Iso2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2261–2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, 2020
Sophie V. J. van der Horst, Andrew J. Pitman, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna Ukkola, Gab Abramowitz, and Peter Isaac
Biogeosciences, 16, 1829–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1829-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1829-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of surface fluxes are taken around the world and are extremely valuable for understanding how the land and atmopshere interact, and how the land can amplify temerature extremes. However, do these measurements sample extreme temperatures, or are they biased to the average? We examine this question and highlight data that do measure surface fluxes under extreme conditions. This provides a way forward to help model developers improve their models.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Martin G. De Kauwe, Belinda E. Medlyn, Andrew J. Pitman, John E. Drake, Anna Ukkola, Anne Griebel, Elise Pendall, Suzanne Prober, and Michael Roderick
Biogeosciences, 16, 903–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-903-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-903-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Recent experimental evidence suggests that during heat extremes, trees may reduce photosynthesis to near zero but increase transpiration. Using eddy covariance data and examining the 3 days leading up to a temperature extreme, we found evidence of reduced photosynthesis and sustained or increased latent heat fluxes at Australian wooded flux sites. However, when focusing on heatwaves, we were unable to disentangle photosynthetic decoupling from the effect of increasing vapour pressure deficit.
Michael Sigl, Nerilie J. Abram, Jacopo Gabrieli, Theo M. Jenk, Dimitri Osmont, and Margit Schwikowski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3311–3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3311-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The fast retreat of Alpine glaciers since the mid-19th century documented in photographs is used as a symbol for the human impact on global climate, yet the key driving forces remain elusive. Here we argue that not industrial soot but volcanic eruptions were responsible for an apparently accelerated deglaciation starting in the 1850s. Our findings support a negligible role of human activity in forcing glacier recession at the end of the Little Ice Age, highlighting the role of natural drivers.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, Jason Evans, and Anna Ukkola
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1317–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1317-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1317-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new global ET dataset and associated uncertainty with monthly temporal resolution for 2000–2009 and 0.5 grid cell size. Six existing gridded ET products are combined using a weighting approach trained by observational datasets from 159 FLUXNET sites. We confirm that point-based estimates of flux towers provide information at the grid scale of these products. We also show that the weighted product performs better than 10 different existing global ET datasets in a range of metrics.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Anna M. Ukkola, Ned Haughton, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, and Andy J. Pitman
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3379–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3379-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Flux towers measure energy, carbon dioxide and water vapour fluxes. These data have become essential for evaluating land surface models (LSMs) – key tools for projecting future climate change. However, these data as released are not immediately usable with LSMs and must be post-processed to change units, screened for missing data and gap-filling. We present an open-source R package that transforms flux tower measurements into a format directly usable by LSMs.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Mark Decker, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Jatin Kala, and Ying-Ping Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2403–2419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2403-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2403-2016, 2016
Tessa R. Vance, Jason L. Roberts, Andrew D. Moy, Mark A. J. Curran, Carly R. Tozer, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Nerilie J. Abram, Tas D. van Ommen, Duncan A. Young, Cyril Grima, Don D. Blankenship, and Martin J. Siegert
Clim. Past, 12, 595–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-595-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-595-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study details a systematic approach to finding a new high-resolution East Antarctic ice core site. The study initially outlines seven criteria that a new site must fulfil, encompassing specific accumulation, ice dynamics and atmospheric circulation aspects. We then use numerous techniques including Antarctic surface mass balance syntheses, ground-truthing of satellite data by airborne radar surveys and reanalysis products to pinpoint promising regions.
A. M. Ukkola and I. C. Prentice
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4177–4187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4177-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Implementation of global soil databases in the Noah-MP model and the effects on simulated mean and extreme soil hydrothermal changes
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK flood risk months ahead using a large-sample machine learning model trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Towards a robust hydrologic data assimilation system for hurricane-induced river flow forecasting
Enhanced evaluation of hourly and daily extreme precipitation in Norway from convection-permitting models at regional and local scales
Deep-learning-based sub-seasonal precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasting over the source region of the Yangtze River
High-resolution land surface modelling over Africa: the role of uncertain soil properties in combination with forcing temporal resolution
Investigating the global and regional response of drought to idealized deforestation using multiple global climate models
Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom
Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?
Leveraging a radar-based disdrometer network to develop a probabilistic precipitation phase model in eastern Canada
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over the Central Mediterranean
Do land models miss key soil hydrological processes controlling soil moisture memory?
Observation-driven model for calculating water-harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Review of gridded climate products and their use in hydrological analyses reveals overlaps, gaps, and the need for a more objective approach to selecting model forcing datasets
Barriers of urban hydro-meteorological simulation: a review
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell life cycles with a copula-based approach
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Enhanced hydrological modelling with the WRF-Hydro lake/reservoir module at Convection-Permitting scale: a case study of the Tana River basin in East Africa
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Probabilistic precipitation downscaling for ungauged mountain sites: a pilot study for the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Storyline Analytical Framework for Understanding Future Severe Low-Water Episodes and Their Consequences
The role of land-atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and VIC models
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Global catalog of soil moisture droughts over the past four decades
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
Kazeem Abiodun Ishola, Gerald Mills, Ankur Prabhat Sati, Benjamin Obe, Matthias Demuzere, Deepak Upreti, Gourav Misra, Paul Lewis, Daire Walsh, Tim McCarthy, and Rowan Fealy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2551–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global soil information introduces uncertainty into models that simulate soil hydrothermal changes. Using the Noah with Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) model with two different global soil datasets, we find under-represented soil properties in wet loam, causing a dry bias in soil moisture. This bias is more pronounced and drought categories are more severe in the SoilGrids dataset. We conclude that models should incorporate detailed, region-specific soil information to minimize model uncertainties.
Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, and Andrew W. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2393–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Here, we train and test a machine learning model to predict the monthly maximum daily streamflow up to 4 months ahead. We train the model on precipitation and temperature forecasts to produce probabilistic hindcasts for 579 stations across the UK for the period 2004–2016. We show skilful results up to 4 months ahead in many locations, although, in general, the skill declines with increasing lead time.
Peyman Abbaszadeh, Fatemeh Gholizadeh, Keyhan Gavahi, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2407–2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Hybrid Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation framework for Environmental Systems (HEAVEN) enhances flood predictions by refining hydrologic models through improved data integration and uncertainty management. Tested in three southeastern US watersheds during hurricanes, HEAVEN assimilates real-time United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, boosting forecast accuracy.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Göktürk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2133–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We compared hourly and daily extreme precipitation across Norway from HARMONIE Climate models at convection-permitting 3 km (HCLIM3) and 12 km (HCLIM12) resolutions. HCLIM3 more accurately captures the extremes in most regions and seasons (except in summer). Its advantages are more pronounced for hourly extremes than for daily extremes. The results highlight the value of convection-permitting models in improving extreme-precipitation predictions and in helping the local society brace for extreme weather.
Ningpeng Dong, Haoran Hao, Mingxiang Yang, Jianhui Wei, Shiqin Xu, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2023–2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating extreme weather events, yet current long-term forecast products are often embedded with uncertainties. We develop a deep-learning-based modelling framework to improve 30 d rainfall and streamflow forecasts by combining advanced neural networks and physical models. With the flow forecast error reduced by up to 33 %, the framework has the potential to enhance water management and disaster prevention.
Bamidele Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1659–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how soil and weather data affect land model simulations over Africa. By combining soil data processed in different ways with weather data of varying time intervals, we found that weather inputs had a greater impact on water processes than soil data type. However, the way soil data were processed became crucial when paired with high-frequency weather inputs, showing that detailed weather data can improve local and regional predictions of how water moves and interacts with the land.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation has a significant impact on climate, yet its effects on drought remain less understood. This study investigates how deforestation affects drought across various climate zones and timescales. Findings indicate that deforestation leads to drier conditions in tropical regions and wetter conditions in arid areas, with minimal effects in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term drought, offering valuable insights into vegetation–climate interactions.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1295–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides a detailed characterisation of flash drought in the UK for 1969–2021. The spatio-temporal distribution and trends of flash droughts are highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, while the atmospheric evaporative demand plays a secondary role. We also found that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main circulation pattern controlling flash drought development.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1201–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, Julie M. Thériault, Olivier Chalifour, Fanny Payette, Alexandre Vidal, and Daniel F. Nadeau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1135–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation data from an automated observational network in eastern Canada showed a temperature interval where rain and snow could coexist. Random forest models were developed to classify the precipitation phase using meteorological data to evaluate operational applications. The models demonstrated significantly improved phase classification and reduced error compared to benchmark operational models. However, accurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging.
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Bruno Brunone, Silvia Meniconi, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 925–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in the areas of the Central Mediterranean where longer memory timescales are found. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance, and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
Mohammad A. Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 547–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture memory (SMM) shows how long soil stays moist after rain, impacting climate and ecosystems. Current models often overestimate SMM, causing inaccuracies in evaporation predictions. We enhanced a land model, Noah-MP, to include better water flow and ponding processes, and we tested it against satellite and field data. This improved model reduced overestimations and enhanced short-term predictions, helping create more accurate climate and weather forecasts.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo del Río
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for the social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligate us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting (FH) emerges as a complementary resource in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate FH potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where FH could be a viable water source.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 63 gridded ground (G), satellite (S), and reanalysis (R) climate datasets. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; however, R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, although better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Xuan Chen, Job Augustijn van der Werf, Arjan Droste, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research highlights the need to integrate urban land surface and hydrological models to better predict and manage compound climate disasters in cities. We find that inadequate representation of water surfaces, hydraulic systems, and detailed building representations are key areas for improvement in future models. Coupled models show promise but face challenges at regional and neighbourhood scales. Interdisciplinary communication is crucial to enhance urban hydrometeorological simulations.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
Marc Girona-Mata, Andrew Orr, Martin Widmann, Daniel Bannister, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Scott Hosking, Jesse Norris, David Ocio, Tony Phillips, Jakob Steiner, and Richard E. Turner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel method for improving daily precipitation maps in mountain regions and pilot it across three basins in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH). The approach leverages climate model and weather station data, along with statistical / machine learning techniques. Our results show this approach outperforms traditional methods, especially in remote, ungauged areas, suggesting it could be used to improve precipitation maps across much of the HKH, as well as other mountain regions.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Louis-Philippe Caron, Kristelle Audet, Laurent Da Silva, Daniel Tarte, Rachel Parent, Élise Comeau, and Dominic Matte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2021 drought in Quebec showcased the province’s potential vulnerability. This study uses a storyline approach to explore impacts of future extreme droughts under +2 °C and +3 °C warming scenarios. By combining regional climate and hydrological simulations, it highlights the potential for severe water deficits. Collaboration with water management experts helped project the impacts of those future extreme droughts and their consequences for ecosystems and human activities.
Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” has great value. It can help anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study reveals that when strong L-A coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the prediction skill for surface air temperature at this lead increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L-A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, leading to improved predictions of abnormally warm events.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, and Miroslav Trnka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, which was clustered into 775/630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Cited articles
Abramowitz, G., Herger, N., Gutmann, E., Hammerling, D., Knutti, R., Leduc, M., Lorenz, R., Pincus, R., and Schmidt, G. A.: ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019.
Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N., Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Naik, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., Trewin, B., Achuta Rao, K., Adhikary, B., Allan, R. P., Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S., Canadell, J. G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W., Collins, W. D., Connors, S. L., Corti, S., Cruz, F., Dentener, F. J., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Diongue Niang, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dosio, A., Douville, H., Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya, I., Gutierrez, J. M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E., Hewitt, H. T., Hope, P., Islam, A. S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D. S., Kopp, R. E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J., Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T. K., Meinshausen, M., Min, S.-K., Monteiro, P. M. S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B. H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Sörensson, A. A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Tréguier, A.-M., van den Hurk, B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X., and Zickfeld, K.: Technical Summary, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 33–144., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.002, 2021.
Askarimarnani, S. S., Kiem, A. S., and Twomey, C. R.: Comparing the performance of drought indicators in Australia from 1900 to 2018, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E912–E934, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6737, 2021.
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., and Meko, D. M.: Assessing the Risk of Persistent Drought Using Climate Model Simulations and Paleoclimate Data, J. Climate, 27, 7529–7549, 2014.
Bao, Q., Lin, P., Zhou, T., Liu, Y., Yu, Y., Wu, G., He, B., He, J., Li, L., Li, J., Li, Y., Liu, H., Qiao, F., Song, Z., Wang, B., Wang, J., Wang, P., Wang, X., Wang, Z., Wu, B., Wu, T., Xu, Y., Yu, H., Zhao, W., Zheng, W., and Zhou, L.: The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system model, Spectral Version 2: FGOALS-s2, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 30, 561–576, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-012-2113-9, 2013.
Benjamini, Y., and Hochberg, Y.: Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing, J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 57, 289–300, 1995.
BoM: State of the Climate 2022, Commonwealth of Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2022/documents/2022-state-of-the-climate-web.pdf (last access: June 2023), 2022.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., Cook, B. I., and González-Rouco, J. F.: Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions, J. Climate, 26, 7635–7649, 2013.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced?, J. Climate, 28, 124–142, 2015.
Cook, B. I., Palmer, J. G., Cook, E. R., Turney, C. S. M., Allen, K., Fenwick, P., O'Donnell, A., Lough, J. M., Grierson, P. F., Ho, M., and Baker, P. J.: The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 12820–12838, 2016.
Cook, B. I., Mankin, J. S., Marvel, K., Williams, A. P., Smerdon, J. E., and Anchukaitis, K. J.: Twenty-first century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios, Earths Future, 8, e2019EF001461, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001461, 2020.
Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, E. R., Williams, A. P., Anchukaitis, K. J., Mankin, J. S., Allen, K., Andreu-Hayles, L., Ault, T. R., Belmecheri, S., Coats, S., Coulthard, B., Fosu, B., Grierson, P., Griffin, D., Herrera, D. A., Ionita, M., Lehner, F., Leland, C., Marvel, K., Morales, M. S., Mishra, V., Ngoma, J., Nguyen, H. T. T., O'Donnell, A., Palmer, J., Rao, M. P., Rodriguez-Caton, M., Seager, R., Stahle, D. W., Stevenson, S., Thapa, U. K., Varuolo-Clarke, A. M., and Wise, E. K.: Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, 741–757, 2022.
Crowley, T. J., Zielinski, G., Vinther, B., Udisti, R., Kreutz, K., Cole-Dai, J., and Castellano, E.: Volcanism and the little ice age, PAGES News, 16, 22–23, 2008.
Delaygue, G. and Bard, E.: An Antarctic view of Beryllium-10 and solar activity for the past millennium, Clim. Dynam., 36, 2201–2218, 2011.
Delworth, T. L. and Zeng, F.: Regional rainfall decline in Australia attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and ozone levels, Nat. Geosci., 7, 583–587, 2014.
Devanand, A., Falster, G., Gillett, Z., Hobeichim, S., Holgate, C., Jin, C., Mu, M., Parker, T., Rifai, S., Rome, K., Stojanovic, M., Vogel, E., Abram, N., Abramowitz, G., Coats, S., Evans, J., Gallant, A., Pitman, A., Power, S., Rauniyar, S., Taschetto, A., and Ukkola, A.: Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change, Sci. Adv., 10, eadj3460, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460, 2024.
Douville, H., Raghavan, K., Renwick, J., Allan, R. P., Arias, P. A., Barlow, M., Cerezo-Mota, R., Cherchi, A., Gan, T. Y., Gergis, J., Jiang, D., Khan, A., Pokam Mba, W., Rosenfeld, D., Tierney, J., and Zolina, O.: Water Cycle Changes, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1055–1210, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.010, 2021.
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J.-P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefebvre, M.-P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013.
ESGF – Earth System Grid Federation: What is ESGF?, https://esgf.llnl.gov/index.html (last access: 22 March 2024), 2024.
Eyring, V., Cox, P. M., Flato, G. M., Gleckler, P. J., Abramowitz, G., Caldwell, P., Collins, W. D., Gier, B. K., Hall, A. D., Hoffman, F. M., Hurtt, G. C., Jahn, A., Jones, C. D., Klein, S. A., Krasting, J. P., Kwiatkowski, L., Lorenz, R., Maloney, E., Meehl, G. A., Pendergrass, A. G., Pincus, R., Ruane, A. C., Russell, J. L., Sanderson, B. M., Santer, B. D., Sherwood, S. C., Simpson, I. R., Stouffer, R. J., and Williamson, M. S.: Taking climate model evaluation to the next level, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 102–110, 2019.
Freund, M., Henley, B. J., Karoly, D. J., Allen, K. J., and Baker, P. J.: Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions, Clim. Past, 13, 1751–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1751-2017, 2017.
Gao, C., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D23111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010239, 2008.
Gillett, Z. E., Taschetto, A. S., Holgate, C. M., and Santoso, A.: Linking ENSO to synoptic weather systems in eastern Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL104814, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104814, 2023.
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D., Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K. D., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., and Stevens, B.: Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 572–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20038, 2013.
Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B., and Wood, R. A.: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dynam., 16, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050010, 2000.
Grose, M. R., Narsey, S., Delage, F. P., Dowdy, A. J., Bador, M., Boschat, G., Chung, C., Kajtar, J. B., Rauniyar, S., Freund, M. B., Lyu, K., Rashid, H., Zhang, X., Wales, S., Trenham, C., Holbrook, N. J., Cowan, T., Alexander, L., Arblaster, J. M., and Power, S.: Insights from CMIP6 for Australia's future climate, Earths Future, 8, e2019EF001469, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001469, 2020.
Helman, P.: Droughts in the Murray Darling Basin Since European Settlement, Murray Darling Basin Authority, https://silo.tips/download/droughts-in-the-murray-darling-basin-since-european-settlement (last access: February 2023), 2009.
Ho, M., Kiem, A. S., and Verdon-Kidd, D. C.: A paleoclimate rainfall reconstruction in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia: 2. Assessing hydroclimatic risk using paleoclimate records of wet and dry epochs, Water Resour. Res., 51, 8380–8396, 2015.
Jones, D. A., Wang, W., and Fawcett, R.: High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia, Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J., 58, 233–248, 2009.
Jungclaus, J. H., Bard, E., Baroni, M., Braconnot, P., Cao, J., Chini, L. P., Egorova, T., Evans, M., González-Rouco, J. F., Goosse, H., Hurtt, G. C., Joos, F., Kaplan, J. O., Khodri, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Krivova, N., LeGrande, A. N., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Man, W., Maycock, A. C., Meinshausen, M., Moberg, A., Muscheler, R., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Otto-Bliesner, B. I., Phipps, S. J., Pongratz, J., Rozanov, E., Schmidt, G. A., Schmidt, H., Schmutz, W., Schurer, A., Shapiro, A. I., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solanki, S. K., Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Usoskin, I. G., Wagner, S., Wu, C.-J., Yeo, K. L., Zanchettin, D., Zhang, Q., and Zorita, E.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium, scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017.
Kiem, A. S., Johnson, F., Westra, S., van Dijk, A., Evans, J. P., O'Donnell, A., Rouillard, A., Barr, C., Tyler, J., Thyer, M., Jakob, D., Woldemeskel, F., Sivakumar, B., and Mehrotra, R.: Natural hazards in Australia: droughts, Climatic Change, 139, 37–54, 2016.
Kiem, A. S., Vance, T. R., Tozer. C. R., Roberts, J. L., Dalla Pozza, R., Vitkovsky, J., Smolders, K., and Curran, M. A. J.: Learning from the past – Using palaeoclimate data to better understand and manage drought in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia, J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud., 29, 100686, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100686, 2020.
Kirono, D. G. C., Round, V., Heady, C., Chiew, F. H. S., and Osbrough, S.: Drought projections for Australia: Updated results and analysis of model simulations, Weather Clim. Extrem., 30, 100280, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100280, 2020.
Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Wahl, E. R., Conley, A., Lawrence, P. J., Rosenbloom, N., and Teng, H.: Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4, J. Climate, 26, 1085–1111, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00326.1, 2013.
Leblanc, M., Tweed, S., Van Dijk, A., and Timbal, B.: A review of historic and future hydrological changes in the Murray-Darling Basin, Global Planet. Change, 80–81, 226–246, 2012.
McGregor, S., Khodri, M., Maher, N., Ohba, M., Pausata, F. S. R., and Stevenson, S.: The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO, in: El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, edited by: McPhaden, M. J., Santoso, A., and Cai, W., Wiley, 267–287, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch12, 2020.
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 202–216, 2010.
Morin, E.: To know what we cannot know: Global mapping of minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitation, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07505, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010wr009798, 2011.
Müller, O. V., Vidale, P. L., Vannière, B., Schiemann, R., Senan, R., Haarsma, R. J., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Land–Atmosphere Coupling Sensitivity to GCMs Resolution: A Multimodel Assessment of Local and Remote Processes in the Sahel Hot Spot, J. Climate, 34, 967–985, 2021.
NCAR: Climate Data at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/ (last access: 22 March 2024), 2024.
O'Donnell, A. J., McCaw, W. L., Cook, E. R., and Grierson, P. F.: Megadroughts and pluvials in southwest Australia: 1350–2017 CE, Clim. Dynam., 57, 1817–1831, 2021.
O'Loingsigh, T., McTainsh, G. H., Parsons, K., Strong, C. L., Shinkfield, P., and Tapper, N. J.: Using meteorological observer data to compare wind erosion during two great droughts in eastern Australia; the World War II Drought (1937–1946) and the Millennium Drought (2001–2010), Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 40, 123–130, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3668, 2014.
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Fasullo, J., Jahn, A., Landrum, L., Stevenson, S., Rosenbloom, N., Mai, A., and Strand, G.: Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 735–754, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1, 2016.
Palmer, J. G., Cook, E. R., Turney, C. S. M., Allen, K., Fenwick, P., Cook, B. I., O'Donnell, A., Lough, J., Grierson, P., and Baker, P.: Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 124002, 2015.
Paton, D. C., Rogers, D. J., Hill, B. M., Bailey, C. P., and Ziembicki, M.: Temporal changes to spatially stratified waterbird communities of the Coorong, South Australia: implications for the management of heterogenous wetlands, Anim. Conserv., 12, 408–417, 2009.
Pepler, A. S., Dowdy, A. J., and Hope, P.: The differing role of weather systems in southern Australian rainfall between 1979–1996 and 1997–2015, Clim. Dyn., 56, 2289–2302, 2021.
Phipps, S. J., Rotstayn, L. D., Gordon, H. B., Roberts, J. L., Hirst, A. C., and Budd, W. F.: The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 483–509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-483-2011, 2011.
Pongratz, J., Reick, C., Raddatz, T., and Claussen, M.: A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB3018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gb003153, 2008.
Santanello, J. A., Dirmeyer, P. A., Ferguson, C. R., Findell, K. L., Tawfik, A. B., Berg, A., Ek, M., Gentine, P., Guillod, B. P., van Heerwaarden, C., Roundy, J., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Land–Atmosphere Interactions: The LoCo Perspective, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1253–1272, 2018.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 33–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011, 2011.
Schmidt, G. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Ammann, C. M., Bard, E., Braconnot, P., Crowley, T. J., Delaygue, G., Joos, F., Krivova, N. A., Muscheler, R., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Pongratz, J., Shindell, D. T., Solanki, S. K., Steinhilber, F., and Vieira, L. E. A.: Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1), Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 185–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-185-2012, 2012.
Schurer, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Mann, M. E., Tett, S. F. B., and Phipps, S. J.: Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium, J. Climate, 26, 6954–6973, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00826.1, 2013.
Semple, B., Rankin, M., Koen, T., and Geeves, G.: A Note on Tree Deaths during the Current (2001–?) Drought in South-eastern Australia, Aust. Geogr., 41, 391–401, 2010.
Speer, M. S., Leslie, L. M., MacNamara, S., and Hartigan, J.: From the 1990s climate change has decreased cool season catchment precipitation reducing river heights in Australia's southern Murray-Darling Basin, Sci. Rep., 11, 16136, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95531-4, 2021.
Steinhilber, F., Beer, J., and Fröhlich, C.: Total solar irradiance during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl040142, 2009.
Stevenson, S., Timmermann, A., Chikamoto, Y., Langford, S., and DiNezio, P.: Stochastically Generated North American Megadroughts, J. Climate, 28, 1865–1880, 2015.
Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Fasullo, J., and Brady, E.: “El Niño Like” Hydroclimate Responses to Last Millennium Volcanic Eruptions, J. Climate, 29, 2907–2921, 2016.
Stevenson, S., Coats, S., Touma, D., Cole, J., Lehner, F., Fasullo, J., and Otto-Bliesner, B.: Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2108124119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108124119, 2022.
Ukkola, A. M., Pitman, A. J., De Kauwe, M. G., Abramowitz, G., Herger, N., Evans, J. P., and Decker, M.: Evaluating CMIP5 Model Agreement for Multiple Drought Metrics, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 969–988, 2018.
Ukkola, A. M., Roderick, M. L., Barker, A., and Pitman, A. J.: Exploring the stationarity of Australian temperature, precipitation and pan evaporation records over the last century, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 124035, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab545c, 2019.
Ukkola, A. M., De Kauwe, M. G., Roderick, M. L., Abramowitz, G., and Pitman, A. J.: Robust future changes in meteorological drought inCMIP6Projections despite uncertainty in precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087820, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl087820, 2020.
Vance, T. R., Roberts, J. L., Plummer, C. T., Kiem, A. S., and van Ommen, T. D.: Interdecadal Pacific variability and eastern Australian megadroughts over the last millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 129–137, 2015.
Vance, T. R., Kiem, A. S., Jong, L. M., Roberts, J. L., Plummer, C. T., Moy, A. D., Curran, M. A. J., and van Ommen, T. D.: Pacific decadal variability over the last 2000 years and implications for climatic risk, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 1–9, 2022.
van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Beck, H. E., Crosbie, R. S., de Jeu, R. A. M., Liu, Y. Y., Podger, G. M., Timbal, B., and Viney, N. R.: The Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001–2009): Natural and human causes and implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society, Water Resour. Res., 49, 1040–1057, 2013.
Verdon-Kidd, D. C. and Kiem, A. S.: Nature and causes of protracted droughts in southeast Australia: Comparison between the Federation, WWII, and Big Dry droughts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl041067, 2009.
Vieira, L. E. A., Solanki, S. K., Krivova, N. A., and Usoskin, I.: Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astron. Astrophys., 531, A6, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201015843, 2011.
Vogel, E., Johnson, F., Marshall, L., Bende-Michl, U., Wilson, L., Peter, J. R., Wasko, C., Srikanthan, S., Sharples, W., Dowdy, A., Hope, P., Khan, Z., Mehrotra, R., Sharma, A., Matic, V., Oke, A., Turner, M., Thomas, S., Donnelly, C., and Duong, V. C.: An evaluation framework for downscaling and bias correction in climate change impact studies, J. Hydrol., 622, 129693, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129693, 2023.
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H., Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato, E., Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011.
Wright, N. and Falster, G.: aus-droughts-last-millennium, GitHub repository [code], https://github.com/nickywright/aus-droughts-last-millennium (last access: March 2024), 2024.
Xiao-Ge, X., Tong-Wen, W., and Jie, Z.: Introduction of CMIP5 Experiments Carried out with the Climate System Models of Beijing Climate Center, Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4, 41–49, https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.041, 2013.
Yukimoto, S., Adachi, Y., Hosaka, M., Sakami, T., Yoshimura, H., Hirabara, M., Tanaka, T. Y., Shindo, E., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Mizuta, R., Yabu, S., Obata, A., Nakano, H., Koshiro, T., Ose, T., and Kitoh, A.: A New Global Climate Model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3 – Model Description and Basic Performance –, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 90A, 23–64, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-A02, 2012.
Zampatti, B. P., Bice, C. M., and Jennings, P. R.: Temporal variability in fish assemblage structure and recruitment in a freshwater-deprived estuary: The Coorong, Australia, Mar. Freshwater Res., 61, 1298–1312, 2010.
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record...
