Articles | Volume 28, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Mar 2024
Research article |
| 27 Mar 2024
| 27 Mar 2024
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Georgina M. Falster
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
Nicky M. Wright
Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
Now at: EarthByte Group, School of Geosciences, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 Sydney, Australia
Nerilie J. Abram
Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Australian National University, ACT, 2601 Canberra, Australia
Anna M. Ukkola
Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052 Sydney, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052 Sydney, Australia
Benjamin J. Henley
School of Earth, Atmospheric and Life Sciences, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522 Wollongong, Australia
Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522 Wollongong, Australia
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Cited
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Ecohydrological adaptation: A research and management framework for ecosystems in Australia’s drying and warming climate S. Thompson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134210
- On the merit of bias-correction for land water storage projections in climate models C. Ndehedehe et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104609
- Assessing the Reliability of High-Resolution CCAM-ACS Precipitation Projections: Implications for Drought and Wheat Exposure Across Australia M. Rezaie-Balf & L. Chua https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-026-01272-7
- Research and institutional priorities for assessing hydroclimate risks to Murray-Darling Basin Plan outcomes A. John et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/13241583.2026.2639540
- Towards cleaner waters: A comprehensive review of pollutant, quality challenges, monitoring advances, and treatment strategies F. Mahmoudian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104441
- Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review C. Holgate et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02179-3
- Terrestrial water storage in Australia under stress from compound climate extremes C. Ndehedehe et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2025.100242
- Future fire events are likely to be worse than climate projections indicate – these are some of the reasons why M. Peace & L. McCaw https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23138
- ENSO-driven extreme heat propagation: network topology and pathways across El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae0f40
- Threatened cockatoo adapts foraging strategy to survive habitat loss from fire P. Mooney et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.70052
- ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making A. King et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025
- Integration of ESG standards in Australian sugarcane farming: A co-design approach to accelerate ESG adoption and innovation A. de Almeida et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104438
- Drying climate associated with improvements in water quality over four decades for a marine embayment in south-eastern Australia A. Hirst et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF25103
- Contextualising the barriers limiting integration of ice core derived hydroclimate records into eastern Australian water management C. Long et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jemecp.2026.100010
- How unusual was Australia's 2017–2019 Tinderbox Drought? G. Falster et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100734
- Statistical properties of multi-year droughts in climate models and observations with corresponding theoretical estimates S. Power & Z. Gillett https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07632-9
- Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study H. Lewis et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025
- Contrasting trends in wheat production exist across Australia in response to climate R. Lawes et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2025.127785
- Highly localised morphological diversity in the mayfly Cloeon tasmaniae Tillyard (Ephemeroptera; Baetidae), and a new synonomy with C. paradieniense Suter R. Thresher & P. Suter https://doi.org/10.1111/aen.70052
- Multi-source evaluation of a non-stationary drought index informed by climatic teleconnections across the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia M. Rezaie-Balf & L. Chua https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180138
- Historical trends of seasonal droughts in Australia M. Grant et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5555-2025
- Australasian aviation climate change hazards: A systematic review M. Holmes et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102670
- Towards a Global Water Use Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Integration of Remote Sensing and Geospatial Datasets Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17243999
- Regional drivers and characteristics of multi-year droughts J. van Mourik et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100748
- Partitioning uncertainty in climate projections for the Murray Darling Basin using large ensembles A. Devanand et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae4a77
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessment of vegetation response to flow scenarios using a coupled eco-hydrological model in a semi-arid wetland M. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130227
- Ecohydrological adaptation: A research and management framework for ecosystems in Australia’s drying and warming climate S. Thompson et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134210
- On the merit of bias-correction for land water storage projections in climate models C. Ndehedehe et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104609
- Assessing the Reliability of High-Resolution CCAM-ACS Precipitation Projections: Implications for Drought and Wheat Exposure Across Australia M. Rezaie-Balf & L. Chua https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-026-01272-7
- Research and institutional priorities for assessing hydroclimate risks to Murray-Darling Basin Plan outcomes A. John et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/13241583.2026.2639540
- Towards cleaner waters: A comprehensive review of pollutant, quality challenges, monitoring advances, and treatment strategies F. Mahmoudian et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104441
- Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review C. Holgate et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02179-3
- Terrestrial water storage in Australia under stress from compound climate extremes C. Ndehedehe et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2025.100242
- Future fire events are likely to be worse than climate projections indicate – these are some of the reasons why M. Peace & L. McCaw https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23138
- ENSO-driven extreme heat propagation: network topology and pathways across El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae0f40
- Threatened cockatoo adapts foraging strategy to survive habitat loss from fire P. Mooney et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.70052
- ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making A. King et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025
- Integration of ESG standards in Australian sugarcane farming: A co-design approach to accelerate ESG adoption and innovation A. de Almeida et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104438
- Drying climate associated with improvements in water quality over four decades for a marine embayment in south-eastern Australia A. Hirst et al. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF25103
- Contextualising the barriers limiting integration of ice core derived hydroclimate records into eastern Australian water management C. Long et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jemecp.2026.100010
- How unusual was Australia's 2017–2019 Tinderbox Drought? G. Falster et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100734
- Statistical properties of multi-year droughts in climate models and observations with corresponding theoretical estimates S. Power & Z. Gillett https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07632-9
- Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study H. Lewis et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025
- Contrasting trends in wheat production exist across Australia in response to climate R. Lawes et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2025.127785
- Highly localised morphological diversity in the mayfly Cloeon tasmaniae Tillyard (Ephemeroptera; Baetidae), and a new synonomy with C. paradieniense Suter R. Thresher & P. Suter https://doi.org/10.1111/aen.70052
- Multi-source evaluation of a non-stationary drought index informed by climatic teleconnections across the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia M. Rezaie-Balf & L. Chua https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180138
- Historical trends of seasonal droughts in Australia M. Grant et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5555-2025
- Australasian aviation climate change hazards: A systematic review M. Holmes et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102670
- Towards a Global Water Use Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Integration of Remote Sensing and Geospatial Datasets Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17243999
- Regional drivers and characteristics of multi-year droughts J. van Mourik et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100748
- Partitioning uncertainty in climate projections for the Murray Darling Basin using large ensembles A. Devanand et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae4a77
Saved (final revised paper)
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 21 Jul 2026
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record...
