Articles | Volume 28, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024
Research article
 | 
27 Mar 2024
Research article |  | 27 Mar 2024

Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change

Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley

Model code and software

aus-droughts-last-millennium N. Wright and G. Falster https://github.com/nickywright/aus-droughts-last-millennium

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Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal megadroughts are a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.