Articles | Volume 27, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-837-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Feb 2023
Research article |
| 16 Feb 2023
| 16 Feb 2023
Past and future climate change effects on the thermal regime and oxygen solubility of four peri-alpine lakes
Olivia Desgué-Itier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 74200
Thonon-les-Bains, France
Laura Melo Vieira Soares
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 74200
Thonon-les-Bains, France
Orlane Anneville
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 74200
Thonon-les-Bains, France
Damien Bouffard
Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology,
Surface Waters – Research and Management, 6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland
Faculty of Geoscience and Environment, Institute of Earth Surface
Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Vincent Chanudet
EDF, Environment and Social Department, Hydro Engineering Centre,
73290 La Motte-Servolex, France
Pierre Alain Danis
Pôle R & D “Ecla”, INRAE, 3275 Route Cézanne, 13182
Aix-en-Provence, Office Français de la Biodiversité, Unité “Ecla”, INRAE, Aix-en-Provence, France
INRAE, Aix Marseille Univ, RECOVER, Team FRESHCO, 3275 Route
Cézanne, 13182 Aix-en-Provence, France
Isabelle Domaizon
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 74200
Thonon-les-Bains, France
Jean Guillard
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 74200
Thonon-les-Bains, France
Théo Mazure
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 74200
Thonon-les-Bains, France
Najwa Sharaf
Pôle R & D “Ecla”, INRAE, 3275 Route Cézanne, 13182
Aix-en-Provence, Office Français de la Biodiversité, Unité “Ecla”, INRAE, Aix-en-Provence, France
INRAE, Aix Marseille Univ, RECOVER, Team FRESHCO, 3275 Route
Cézanne, 13182 Aix-en-Provence, France
Frédéric Soulignac
CIPEL, International Commission for the protection of the waters of
Lake Geneva, 1260 Nyon, Switzerland
Viet Tran-Khac
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 74200
Thonon-les-Bains, France
Brigitte Vinçon-Leite
Laboratoire Eau, Environnement, Systèmes Urbains (LEESU),
École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Marne-la-Vallée, France
Jean-Philippe Jenny
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Université Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL, 74200
Thonon-les-Bains, France
Related authors
No articles found.
Marina Amadori, Abolfazl Irani Rahaghi, Damien Bouffard, and Marco Toffolon
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-118, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
Models simplify reality using assumptions, which can sometimes introduce flaws and affect their accuracy. Properly calibrating model parameters is essential, and although automated tools can speed up this process, they may occasionally produce incorrect values due to inconsistencies in the model. We demonstrate that by carefully applying automated tools, we were able to identify and correct a flaw in a widely used model for lake environments.
Najwa Sharaf, Jordi Prats, Nathalie Reynaud, Thierry Tormos, Rosalie Bruel, Tiphaine Peroux, and Pierre-Alain Danis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5631–5650, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5631-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5631-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a regional long-term (1959–2020) dataset (LakeTSim) of daily epilimnion and hypolimnion water temperature simulations in 401 French lakes. Overall, less uncertainty is associated with the epilimnion compared to the hypolimnion. LakeTSim is valuable for providing new insights into lake water temperature for assessing the impact of climate change, which is often hindered by the lack of observations, and for decision-making by stakeholders.
Seyed Mahmood Hamze-Ziabari, Ulrich Lemmin, Frédéric Soulignac, Mehrshad Foroughan, and David Andrew Barry
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8785–8807, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8785-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8785-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A procedure combining numerical simulations, remote sensing, and statistical analyses is developed to detect large-scale current systems in large lakes. By applying this novel procedure in Lake Geneva, strategies for detailed transect field studies of the gyres and eddies were developed. Unambiguous field evidence of 3D gyre/eddy structures in full agreement with predictions confirmed the robustness of the proposed procedure.
Artur Safin, Damien Bouffard, Firat Ozdemir, Cintia L. Ramón, James Runnalls, Fotis Georgatos, Camille Minaudo, and Jonas Šukys
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7715–7730, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7715-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7715-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reconciling the differences between numerical model predictions and observational data is always a challenge. In this paper, we investigate the viability of a novel approach to the calibration of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Geneva, where the target parameters are inferred in terms of distributions. We employ a filtering technique that generates physically consistent model trajectories and implement a neural network to enable bulk-to-skin temperature conversion.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Tomy Doda, Cintia L. Ramón, Hugo N. Ulloa, Alfred Wüest, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 331–353, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-331-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-331-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
At night or during cold periods, the shallow littoral region of lakes cools faster than their deeper interior. This induces a cold downslope current that carries littoral waters offshore. From a 1-year-long database collected in a small temperate lake, we resolve the seasonality of this current and report its frequent occurrence from summer to winter. This study contributes to a better quantification of lateral exchange in lakes, with implications for the transport of dissolved compounds.
Marco Toffolon, Luca Cortese, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7527–7543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The time when lakes freeze varies considerably from year to year. A common way to predict it is to use negative degree days, i.e., the sum of air temperatures below 0 °C, a proxy for the heat lost to the atmosphere. Here, we show that this is insufficient as the mixing of the surface layer induced by wind tends to delay the formation of ice. To do so, we developed a minimal model based on a simplified energy balance, which can be used both for large-scale analyses and short-term predictions.
Pascal Perolo, Bieito Fernández Castro, Nicolas Escoffier, Thibault Lambert, Damien Bouffard, and Marie-Elodie Perga
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wind blowing over the ocean creates waves that, by increasing the level of turbulence, promote gas exchange at the air–water interface. In this study, for the first time, we measured enhanced gas exchanges by wind-induced waves at the surface of a large lake. We adapted an ocean-based model to account for the effect of surface waves on gas exchange in lakes. We finally show that intense wind events with surface waves contribute disproportionately to the annual CO2 gas flux in a large lake.
Francesco Piccioni, Céline Casenave, Bruno Jacques Lemaire, Patrick Le Moigne, Philippe Dubois, and Brigitte Vinçon-Leite
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-439-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Small lakes are ecosystems highly impacted by climate change. Here, the thermal regime of a small, shallow lake over the past six decades was reconstructed via 3D modelling. Significant changes were found: strong water warming in spring and summer (0.7 °C/decade) as well as increased stratification and thermal energy for cyanobacteria growth, especially in spring. The strong spatial patterns detected for stratification might create local conditions particularly favourable to cyanobacteria bloom.
Cintia L. Ramón, Hugo N. Ulloa, Tomy Doda, Kraig B. Winters, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1813–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
When solar radiation penetrates the frozen surface of lakes, shallower zones underneath warm faster than deep interior waters. This numerical study shows that the transport of excess heat to the lake interior depends on the lake circulation, affected by Earth's rotation, and controls the lake warming rates and the spatial distribution of the heat flux across the ice–water interface. This work contributes to the understanding of the circulation and thermal structure patterns of ice-covered lakes.
Theo Baracchini, Philip Y. Chu, Jonas Šukys, Gian Lieberherr, Stefan Wunderle, Alfred Wüest, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1267–1284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1267-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lake physical processes occur at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. 3D hydrodynamic lake models are the only information source capable of solving those scales; however, they still need observations to be calibrated and to constrain their uncertainties. The optimal combination of a 3D hydrodynamic model, in situ measurements, and remote sensing observations is achieved through data assimilation. Here we present a complete data assimilation experiment for lakes using open-source tools.
Adrien Gaudard, Love Råman Vinnå, Fabian Bärenbold, Martin Schmid, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3955–3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3955-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3955-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed an openly accessible web-based platform for visualization and promotion of easy access to one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model output data updated in near-real time (simstrat.eawag.ch). This platform was developed for 54 lakes in Switzerland, with potential for adaptation to other regional areas or even at a global worldwide scale using appropriate forcing input data.
Chandrashekhar Deshmukh, Frédéric Guérin, Axay Vongkhamsao, Sylvie Pighini, Phetdala Oudone, Saysoulinthone Sopraseuth, Arnaud Godon, Wanidaporn Rode, Pierre Guédant, Priscia Oliva, Stéphane Audry, Cyril Zouiten, Corinne Galy-Lacaux, Henri Robain, Olivier Ribolzi, Arun Kansal, Vincent Chanudet, Stéphane Descloux, and Dominique Serça
Biogeosciences, 15, 1775–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1775-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Based on an intense monitoring of CO2 concentrations and organic and inorganic carbon in the reservoir, in the rivers upstream and downstream, and of CO2 emissions from the drawdown area, we confirmed the importance of the flooded stock of organic matter as a source of C fueling emissions and we show that the drawdown area contributes, depending on the year, from 50 to 75 % of total annual gross emissions in the flat and shallow Nam Theun 2 Reservoir.
Love Råman Vinnå, Alfred Wüest, Massimiliano Zappa, Gabriel Fink, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 31–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Responses of inland waters to climate change vary on global and regional scales. Shifts in river discharge regimes act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing water temperature. The extent of this effect on warming is controlled by the change in river discharge and lake hydraulic residence time. A shift of deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter can potentially counteract the otherwise negative climate effects on deep-water oxygen content.
Adrien Gaudard, Robert Schwefel, Love Råman Vinnå, Martin Schmid, Alfred Wüest, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3411–3423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3411-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3411-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The study of lakes often uses numerical models to reproduce the processes occurring in nature as accurately as possible. Due to the complexity of natural systems, all numerical models need to leave aside or simplify many of the relevant processes. In this work, we improve the modelling of the impact of wind on the internal currents in deep lakes. This improves the reproduction of deep mixing, which influences the concentrations of oxygen and nutrients, with biological and chemical consequences.
Frédéric Guérin, Chandrashekhar Deshmukh, David Labat, Sylvie Pighini, Axay Vongkhamsao, Pierre Guédant, Wanidaporn Rode, Arnaud Godon, Vincent Chanudet, Stéphane Descloux, and Dominique Serça
Biogeosciences, 13, 3647–3663, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3647-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs could represent a significant fraction of global CH4 emissions from inland waters. The monitoring of methane emissions every 2 weeks at nine stations in a subtropical hydroelectric reservoir revealed that emissions could occasionally be 1 to 2 orders of magnitude higher than expected for these man-made ecosystems. Upstream of the water intake, emissions are enhanced by the water column mixing that upwells CH4-rich water to the surface.
Damien Bouffard and Marie-Elodie Perga
Biogeosciences, 13, 3573–3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3573-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3573-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This survey of an exceptional flood over Lake Geneva challenges the long-standing hypothesis that dense, particle-loaded and oxygenated rivers plunging into lakes necessarily contribute to deep-oxygen replenishment. We identified some river intrusions as hot spots for oxygen consumption, where inputs of fresh river-borne organic matter reactivate the respiration of more refractory lacustrine organic matter in a process referred to as "priming effect".
Chandrashekhar Deshmukh, Frédéric Guérin, David Labat, Sylvie Pighini, Axay Vongkhamsao, Pierre Guédant, Wanidaporn Rode, Arnaud Godon, Vincent Chanudet, Stéphane Descloux, and Dominique Serça
Biogeosciences, 13, 1919–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1919-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1919-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs could represent a significant fraction of global CH4 emissions from inland waters and wetlands. The first quantification of emissions downstream of a subtropical reservoir shows that they contribute only 10 to 30 % of total CH4 emissions from the reservoir. This surprisingly low contribution is due to the seasonal reservoir overturn and the effect of the turbine on re-aerating the reservoir water column.
C. Deshmukh, D. Serça, C. Delon, R. Tardif, M. Demarty, C. Jarnot, Y. Meyerfeld, V. Chanudet, P. Guédant, W. Rode, S. Descloux, and F. Guérin
Biogeosciences, 11, 4251–4269, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4251-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4251-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Rivers and Lakes | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
On the cause of large daily river flow fluctuations in the Mekong River
A hybrid data-driven approach to analyze the drivers of lake level dynamics
Estimating velocity distribution and flood discharge at river bridges using entropy theory – insights from computational fluid dynamics flow fields
Assessing the different components of the water balance of Lake Titicaca
Late-Quaternary hydrological evolution of Fuente de Piedra playa-lake (southern Iberia) controlled by neotectonics and climate changes
Isotopic evaluation of the National Water Model reveals missing agricultural irrigation contributions to streamflow across the western United States
Timing of spring events changes under modelled future climate scenarios in a mesotrophic lake
Effects of high-quality elevation data and explanatory variables on the accuracy of flood inundation mapping via Height Above Nearest Drainage
Apparent Friction Coefficient Used for Flow Calculation in Straight Compound Channels With Trees On Floodplains
Assessing national exposure and impact to glacial lake outburst floods considering uncertainty under data sparsity
Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States
Benchmarking high-resolution hydrologic model performance of long-term retrospective streamflow simulations in the contiguous United States
Sources of skill in lake temperature, discharge and ice-off seasonal forecasting tools
Exploring tracer information in a small stream to improve parameter identifiability and enhance the process interpretation in transient storage models
How do inorganic nitrogen processing pathways change quantitatively at daily, seasonal, and multiannual scales in a large agricultural stream?
Seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk using a continuous Gaussian Bayesian network
Spatially referenced Bayesian state-space model of total phosphorus in western Lake Erie
Future water temperature of rivers in Switzerland under climate change investigated with physics-based models
Physical controls and a priori estimation of raising land surface elevation across the southwestern Bangladesh delta using tidal river management
Evaluation and interpretation of convolutional long short-term memory networks for regional hydrological modelling
Synthesizing the impacts of baseflow contribution on concentration–discharge (C–Q) relationships across Australia using a Bayesian hierarchical model
Calibrating 1D hydrodynamic river models in the absence of cross-section geometry using satellite observations of water surface elevation and river width
A global algorithm for identifying changing streamflow regimes: application to Canadian natural streams (1966–2010)
Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting
Quantifying floodwater impacts on a lake water budget via volume-dependent transient stable isotope mass balance
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – changes in moderate extremes and their seasonality
River runoff in Switzerland in a changing climate – runoff regime changes and their time of emergence
Machine-learning methods for stream water temperature prediction
Bathymetry and latitude modify lake warming under ice
Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years
Reservoir evaporation in a Mediterranean climate: comparing direct methods in Alqueva Reservoir, Portugal
Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming
Anthropogenic influence on the Rhine water temperatures
A new form of the Saint-Venant equations for variable topography
Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
Assessment of the geomorphic effectiveness of controlled floods in a braided river using a reduced-complexity numerical model
Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation
Modeling inorganic carbon dynamics in the Seine River continuum in France
A data-based predictive model for spatiotemporal variability in stream water quality
Flooding in the Mekong Delta: the impact of dyke systems on downstream hydrodynamics
Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)
Historical modelling of changes in Lake Erken thermal conditions
Improving lake mixing process simulations in the Community Land Model by using K profile parameterization
Upgraded global mapping information for earth system modelling: an application to surface water depth at the ECMWF
Sediment transport modelling in riverine environments: on the importance of grain-size distribution, sediment density, and suspended sediment concentrations at the upstream boundary
Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a modified covariance approach to hydrological model parameterization
Lidar-based approaches for estimating solar insolation in heavily forested streams
Numerical study on the response of the largest lake in China to climate change
Unraveling the hydrological budget of isolated and seasonally contrasted subtropical lakes
Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes
Khosro Morovati, Keer Zhang, Lidi Shi, Yadu Pokhrel, Maozhou Wu, Paradis Someth, Sarann Ly, and Fuqiang Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5133–5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines large daily river flow fluctuations in the dammed Mekong River, developing integrated 3D hydrodynamic and response time models alongside a hydrological model with an embedded reservoir module. This approach allows estimation of travel times between hydrological stations and contributions of subbasins and upstream regions. Findings show a power correlation between upstream discharge and travel time, and significant fluctuations occurred even before dam construction.
Márk Somogyvári, Dieter Scherer, Frederik Bart, Ute Fehrenbach, Akpona Okujeni, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4331–4348, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the drivers behind the changes in lake levels, creating a series of models from least to most complex. In this study, we have shown that the decreasing levels of Groß Glienicker Lake in Germany are not simply the result of changes in climate but are affected by other processes. In our example, reduced inflow from a growing forest, regionally sinking groundwater levels and the modifications in the local rainwater infrastructure together resulted in an increasing lake level loss.
Farhad Bahmanpouri, Tommaso Lazzarin, Silvia Barbetta, Tommaso Moramarco, and Daniele P. Viero
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3717–3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3717-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The entropy model is a reliable tool to estimate flood discharge in rivers using observed level and surface velocity. Often, level and velocity sensors are placed on bridges, which may disturb the flow. Using accurate numerical models, we explored the entropy model reliability nearby a multi-arch bridge. We found that it is better to place sensors and to estimate the discharge upstream of bridges; downstream, the entropy model needs the river-wide distribution of surface velocity as input data.
Nilo Lima-Quispe, Denis Ruelland, Antoine Rabatel, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, and Thomas Condom
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2370, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study estimated the water balance of Lake Titicaca using an integrated modeling framework that considers natural hydrological processes and net irrigation consumption. The proposed approach was implemented at a daily scale for a period of 35 years. This framework is able to simulate lake water levels with good accuracy over a wide range of hydroclimatic conditions. The findings demonstrate that a simple representation of hydrological processes is suitable for use in poorly-gauged regions.
Alejandro Jiménez Bonilla, Lucía Martegani, Miguel Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Fernando Gázquez, Manuel Díaz-Azpíroz, Sergio Martos, Klaus Reicherter, and Inmaculada Expósito
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-142, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We accomplished an interdisciplinary study to study the Fuente de Piedra (FdP) playa-lake evolution in southern Spain. We made water balances during the FdP lifespan . Our results indicate that the FdP playa-lake level moved and tilted towards SW caused by active faults.
Annie L. Putman, Patrick C. Longley, Morgan C. McDonnell, James Reddy, Michelle Katoski, Olivia L. Miller, and J. Renée Brooks
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2895–2918, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accuracy of streamflow estimates where water management and use are prevalent, such as the western US, reflect hydrologic modeling decisions. To evaluate process inclusion decisions, we equipped a hydrologic model with tracers and compared estimates to observations. The tracer-equipped model performed well, and differences between the model and observations suggest that the inclusion of water from irrigation may improve model performance in this region.
Jorrit P. Mesman, Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro, Ana I. Ayala, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Dennis Trolle, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1791–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Spring events in lakes are key processes for ecosystem functioning. We used a coupled catchment–lake model to investigate future changes in the timing of spring discharge, ice-off, spring phytoplankton peak, and onset of stratification in a mesotrophic lake. We found a clear trend towards earlier occurrence under climate warming but also that relative shifts in the timing occurred, such as onset of stratification advancing more slowly than the other events.
Fernando Aristizabal, Taher Chegini, Gregory Petrochenkov, Fernando Salas, and Jasmeet Judge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1287–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are significant natural disasters that affect people and property. This study uses a simplified terrain index and the latest lidar-derived digital elevation maps (DEMs) to investigate flood inundation extent quality. We examined inundation quality influenced by different spatial resolutions and other variables. Results showed that lidar DEMs enhance inundation quality, but their resolution is less impactful in our context. Further studies on reservoirs and urban flooding are recommended.
Adam Kozioł, Adam Kiczko, Marcin Krukowski, Elżbieta Kubrak, Janusz Kubrak, Grzegorz Majewski, and Andrzej Brandyk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-74, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Floodplain trees play a crucial role in increasing flow resistance. Their impact extends beyond floodplains to affect the main channel. The experiments reveal the influence of floodplain trees on the discharge capacity of channels with varying roughness. We determine resistance coefficients for different roughness levels of the main channel bottom. The research contributes to a deeper understanding of open-channel flow dynamics and has practical implications for river engineering.
Huili Chen, Qiuhua Liang, Jiaheng Zhao, and Sudan Bikash Maharjan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-260, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) can cause serious damage. To assess their risks, we developed an innovative framework using remote sensing, Bayesian models, flood modeling, and open-source data. This enables us to evaluate GLOFs on a national scale, despite limited data and challenges accessing high-altitude lakes. We evaluated dangerous lakes in Nepal, identifying those most at risk. This work is crucial for understanding GLOF risks and the framework can be transferred to other areas.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3911–3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the flood risks concurrently induced by river flooding and coastal storm surge along the coast of the contiguous United States using statistical and numerical models. We reveal a few hotspots of such risks, the critical spatial variabilities within a river basin and over the whole US coast, and the uncertainties of the risk assessment. We highlight the importance of weighing different risk measures to avoid underestimating or exaggerating the compound flood impacts.
Erin Towler, Sydney S. Foks, Aubrey L. Dugger, Jesse E. Dickinson, Hedeff I. Essaid, David Gochis, Roland J. Viger, and Yongxin Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1809–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologic models developed to assess water availability need to be systematically evaluated. This study evaluates the long-term performance of two high-resolution hydrologic models that simulate streamflow across the contiguous United States. Both models show similar performance overall and regionally, with better performance in minimally disturbed basins than in those impacted by human activity. At about 80 % of the sites, both models outperform the seasonal climatological benchmark.
François Clayer, Leah Jackson-Blake, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Muhammed Shikhani, Andrew French, Tadhg Moore, James Sample, Magnus Norling, Maria-Dolores Frias, Sixto Herrera, Elvira de Eyto, Eleanor Jennings, Karsten Rinke, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1361–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the predictive skill of forecasting tools over the next season for water discharge and lake temperature. Tools were forced with seasonal weather predictions; however, most of the prediction skill originates from legacy effects and not from seasonal weather predictions. Yet, when skills from seasonal weather predictions are present, additional skill comes from interaction effects. Skilful lake seasonal predictions require better weather predictions and realistic antecedent conditions.
Enrico Bonanno, Günter Blöschl, and Julian Klaus
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6003–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6003-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is an unclear understanding of which processes regulate the transport of water, solutes, and pollutants in streams. This is crucial since these processes control water quality in river networks. Compared to other approaches, we obtained clearer insights into the processes controlling solute transport in the investigated reach. This work highlights the risks of using uncertain results for interpreting the processes controlling water movement in streams.
Jingshui Huang, Dietrich Borchardt, and Michael Rode
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5817–5833, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5817-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we set up a water quality model using a 5-year paired high-frequency water quality dataset from a large agricultural stream. The simulations were compared with the 15 min interval measurements and showed very good fits. Based on these, we quantified the N uptake pathway rates and efficiencies at daily, seasonal, and yearly scales. This study offers an overarching understanding of N processing in large agricultural streams across different temporal scales.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Sigrid Haande, James E. Sample, and S. Jannicke Moe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3103–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a Gaussian Bayesian network (GBN) for seasonal forecasting of lake water quality and algal bloom risk in a nutrient-impacted lake in southern Norway. Bayesian networks are powerful tools for environmental modelling but are almost exclusively discrete. We demonstrate that a continuous GBN is a promising alternative approach. Predictive performance of the GBN was similar or improved compared to a discrete network, and it was substantially less time-consuming and subjective to develop.
Timothy J. Maguire, Craig A. Stow, and Casey M. Godwin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1993–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Water within large water bodies is constantly moving. Consequently, water movement masks causal relationships that exist between rivers and lakes. Incorporating water movement into models of nutrient concentration allows us to predict concentrations at unobserved locations and at observed locations on days not sampled. Our modeling approach does this while accommodating nutrient concentration data from multiple sources and provides a way to experimentally define the impact of rivers on lakes.
Adrien Michel, Bettina Schaefli, Nander Wever, Harry Zekollari, Michael Lehning, and Hendrik Huwald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1063–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed.
Md Feroz Islam, Paul P. Schot, Stefan C. Dekker, Jasper Griffioen, and Hans Middelkoop
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 903–921, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-903-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of sedimentation in the lowest parts of polders (beels) through controlled flooding with dike breach (tidal river management – TRM) to counterbalance relative sea level rise (RSLR) in 234 beels of SW Bangladesh is determined in this study, using 2D models and multiple regression. Lower beels located closer to the sea have the highest potential. Operating TRM only during the monsoon season is sufficient to raise the land surface of most beels by more than 3 times the yearly RSLR.
Sam Anderson and Valentina Radić
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 795–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We develop and interpret a spatiotemporal deep learning model for regional streamflow prediction at more than 200 stream gauge stations in western Canada. We find the novel modelling style to work very well for daily streamflow prediction. Importantly, we interpret model learning to show that it has learned to focus on physically interpretable and physically relevant information, which is a highly desirable quality of machine-learning-based hydrological models.
Danlu Guo, Camille Minaudo, Anna Lintern, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, Kefeng Zhang, and Clément Duvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of baseflow contribution on concentration–flow (C–Q) relationships across the Australian continent. We developed a novel Bayesian hierarchical model for six water quality variables across 157 catchments that span five climate zones. For sediments and nutrients, the C–Q slope is generally steeper for catchments with a higher median and a greater variability of baseflow contribution, highlighting the key role of variable flow pathways in particulate and solute export.
Liguang Jiang, Silja Westphal Christensen, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6359–6379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6359-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
River roughness and geometry are essential to hydraulic river models. However, measurements of these quantities are not available in most rivers globally. Nevertheless, simultaneous calibration of channel geometric parameters and roughness is difficult as they compensate for each other. This study introduces an alternative approach of parameterization and calibration that reduces parameter correlations by combining cross-section geometry and roughness into a conveyance parameter.
Masoud Zaerpour, Shadi Hatami, Javad Sadri, and Ali Nazemi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5193–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5193-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow regimes are changing globally particularly in cold regions. We develop a novel algorithm for detecting shifting streamflow regimes using changes in first and second moments of ensemble streamflow features. This algorithm is generic and can be used globally. To showcase its application, we assess alterations in Canadian natural streams from 1966 to 2010 to provide the first temporally consistent, pan-Canadian assessment of change in natural streamflow regimes, coast to coast to coast.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Janie Masse-Dufresne, Florent Barbecot, Paul Baudron, and John Gibson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3731–3757, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A volume-dependent transient isotopic mass balance model was developed for an artificial lake in Canada, in a context where direct measurements of surface water fluxes are difficult. It revealed that floodwater inputs affected the dynamics of the lake in spring but also significantly influenced the long-term water balance due to temporary subsurface storage of floodwater. Such models are paramount for understanding the vulnerability of lakes to changes in groundwater quantity and quality.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3577–3594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses changes in magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of moderate low and high flows for 93 catchments in Switzerland. In lower-lying catchments (below 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will decrease (increase). In Alpine catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will increase (decrease). Moderate high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3071–3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Runoff regimes in Switzerland will change significantly under climate change. Projected changes are strongly elevation dependent with earlier time of emergence and stronger changes in high-elevation catchments where snowmelt and glacier melt play an important role. The magnitude of change and the climate model agreement on the sign increase with increasing global mean temperatures and stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation.
Moritz Feigl, Katharina Lebiedzinski, Mathew Herrnegger, and Karsten Schulz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2951–2977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we developed machine learning approaches for daily river water temperature prediction, using different data preprocessing methods, six model types, a range of different data inputs and 10 study catchments. By comparing to current state-of-the-art models, we could show a significant improvement of prediction performance of the tested approaches. Furthermore, we could gain insight into the relationships between model types, input data and predicted stream water temperature.
Cintia L. Ramón, Hugo N. Ulloa, Tomy Doda, Kraig B. Winters, and Damien Bouffard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1813–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1813-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
When solar radiation penetrates the frozen surface of lakes, shallower zones underneath warm faster than deep interior waters. This numerical study shows that the transport of excess heat to the lake interior depends on the lake circulation, affected by Earth's rotation, and controls the lake warming rates and the spatial distribution of the heat flux across the ice–water interface. This work contributes to the understanding of the circulation and thermal structure patterns of ice-covered lakes.
Robert Ladwig, Paul C. Hanson, Hilary A. Dugan, Cayelan C. Carey, Yu Zhang, Lele Shu, Christopher J. Duffy, and Kelly M. Cobourn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1009–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1009-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a modeling framework applied to 37 years of dissolved oxygen time series data from Lake Mendota, we identified the timing and intensity of thermal energy stored in the lake water column, the lake's resilience to mixing, and surface primary production as the most important drivers of interannual dynamics of low oxygen concentrations at the lake bottom. Due to climate change, we expect an increase in the spatial and temporal extent of low oxygen concentrations in Lake Mendota.
Carlos Miranda Rodrigues, Madalena Moreira, Rita Cabral Guimarães, and Miguel Potes
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5973–5984, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5973-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In Mediterranean environments, evaporation is a key component of reservoir water budgets. Prediction of surface evaporation becomes crucial for adequate reservoir water management. This study provides an applicable method for calculating evaporation based on pan measurements applied at Alqueva Reservoir (southern Portugal), one of the largest artificial lakes in Europe. Moreover, the methodology presented here could be applied to other Mediterranean reservoirs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Gustavo Naumann, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Bernard Bisselink, Emiliano Gelati, Ad De Roo, and Luc Feyen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5919–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels, showing that at 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 ×106 ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These effects are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.
Alex Zavarsky and Lars Duester
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5027–5041, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5027-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
River water temperature is an important parameter for water quality and an important variable for physical, chemical and biological processes. River water is also used as a cooling agent by power plants and production facilities. We study long-term trends in river water temperature and correlate them to meteorological influences and power production or economic indices.
Cheng-Wei Yu, Ben R. Hodges, and Frank Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4001–4024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4001-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the effects of bottom slope discontinuity on the stability of numerical solutions for the Saint-Venant equations. A new reference slope concept is proposed to ensure smooth source terms and eliminate potential numerical oscillations. It is shown that a simple algebraic transformation of channel geometry provides a smooth reference slope while preserving the correct cross-sectional flow area and the piezometric pressure gradient that drives the flow.
Ana I. Ayala, Simone Moras, and Donald C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken are assessed. We used the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) to simulate water temperature driven by meteorological scenarios supplied by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) and tested its ability at different frequencies. Then, daily ISIMIP meteorological scenarios were disaggregated and assessed for the effects of climate change on lake thermal structure.
Luca Ziliani, Nicola Surian, Gianluca Botter, and Luca Mao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3229–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3229-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Although geomorphic recovery is a key issue in many rivers worldwide, controlled floods have been rarely designed using geomorphological criteria. An integrated approach is used to assess the effects of different controlled-flood scenarios in a strongly regulated river. None of the controlled-flood strategies provide significant morphological benefits. Nevertheless, this study represents a significant contribution for the management and restoration of highly disturbed rivers.
Benjamin M. Kraemer, Anton Seimon, Rita Adrian, and Peter B. McIntyre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2593–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Lake levels go up and down due to natural variability in the climate. But the effects of natural variability on lake levels can sometimes be confused for the influence of humans. Here we used long-term data from 200 globally distributed lakes and an advanced statistical approach to show that the effects of natural variability on lake levels can be disentangled from other effects leading to better estimates of long-term changes that may be partially caused by humans.
Audrey Marescaux, Vincent Thieu, Nathalie Gypens, Marie Silvestre, and Josette Garnier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2379–2398, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2379-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rivers have been recognized as an active part of the carbon cycle where transformations are associated with CO2 outgassing. To understand it, we propose a modeling approach with the biogeochemical model, pyNuts-Riverstrahler. We implemented it on the human-impacted Seine River. Sources of carbon to the river were characterized by field measurements in groundwater and in wastewater. Outgassing was the most important in streams, and peaks were simulated downstream of wastewater treatment effluent.
Danlu Guo, Anna Lintern, J. Angus Webb, Dongryeol Ryu, Ulrike Bende-Michl, Shuci Liu, and Andrew William Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-827-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed predictive models to represent the spatial and temporal variation of stream water quality across Victoria, Australia. The model structures were informed by a data-driven approach, which identified the key controls of water quality variations from long-term records. These models are helpful to identify likely future changes in water quality and, in turn, provide critical information for developing management strategies to improve stream water quality.
Vo Quoc Thanh, Dano Roelvink, Mick van der Wegen, Johan Reyns, Herman Kernkamp, Giap Van Vinh, and Vo Thi Phuong Linh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 189–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-189-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a rice bowl of not only Vietnam, but also the world; agriculture is the main source of livelihood in the delta. The VMD is facing threats related to water management and hydraulic structures. Dykes are built to protect agricultural crops in the floodplains and may influence water regimes downstream in the VMD. If the VMD floodplains are completely protected by dykes, yearly mean water levels could increase by 3 cm (at Can Tho) and 1.5 cm (at My Thuan).
Martin Mergili, Shiva P. Pudasaini, Adam Emmer, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Alejo Cochachin, and Holger Frey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 93–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-93-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1941, the glacial lagoon Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) drained suddenly. The resulting outburst flood/debris flow consumed another lake and had a disastrous impact on the town of Huaraz 23 km downstream. We reconstuct this event through a numerical model to learn about the possibility of prediction of similar processes in the future. Remaining challenges consist of the complex process interactions and the lack of experience due to the rare occurrence of such process chains.
Simone Moras, Ana I. Ayala, and Don C. Pierson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5001–5016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5001-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a hydrodynamic model to reconstruct daily historical water temperature of Lake Erken (Sweden) between 1961 and 2017 to demonstrate the ongoing effect of climate change on lake thermal conditions. The results show that the lake has warmed most rapidly in the last 30 years and that it is now subject to a longer and more stable stratification. The methods used here to reconstruct historical water temperature records can be easily extended to other lakes.
Qunhui Zhang, Jiming Jin, Xiaochun Wang, Phaedra Budy, Nick Barrett, and Sarah E. Null
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4969–4982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4969-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We improved lake mixing process simulations by applying a vertical mixing scheme, K profile parameterization (KPP), in the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The current vertical mixing scheme in CLM requires an arbitrarily enlarged eddy diffusivity to enhance water mixing. The coupled CLM-KPP considers a boundary layer for eddy development. The improved lake model provides an important tool for lake hydrology and ecosystem studies.
Margarita Choulga, Ekaterina Kourzeneva, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, and Nils Wedi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4051–4076, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4051-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes influence weather and climate of regions, especially if several of them are located close by. Just by using upgraded lake depths, based on new or more recent measurements and geological methods of depth estimation, errors of lake surface water forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts became 12–20 % lower compared with observations for 27 lakes collected by the Finnish Environment Institute. For ice-off date forecasts errors changed insignificantly.
Jérémy Lepesqueur, Renaud Hostache, Núria Martínez-Carreras, Emmanuelle Montargès-Pelletier, and Christophe Hissler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3901–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article evaluates the influence of sediment representation in a sediment transport model. A short-term simulation is used to assess how far changing the sediment characteristics in the modelling experiment changes riverbed evolution and sediment redistribution during a small flood event. The study shows in particular that representing sediment with extended grain-size and grain-density distributions allows for improving model accuracy and performances.
Annie Visser-Quinn, Lindsay Beevers, and Sandhya Patidar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3279–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3279-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The ecological impact of changes in river flow may be explored through the simulation of ecologically relevant flow indicators. Traditional approaches to model parameterization are not well-suited for this. To this end, this paper considers the ability of a
modified covariance approach, applied to five hydrologically diverse catchments. An overall improvement in consistency is observed, whilst timing and rate of change represent the best and worst replicated indicators respectively.
Jeffrey J. Richardson, Christian E. Torgersen, and L. Monika Moskal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2813–2822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2813-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
High stream temperatures can be detrimental to the survival of aquatic species such as endangered salmon. Stream temperatures can be reduced by shade provided by trees in riparian areas. Two lidar-based methods were effective at assessing stream shading. These methods can be used in place of expensive field measurements.
Dongsheng Su, Xiuqing Hu, Lijuan Wen, Shihua Lyu, Xiaoqing Gao, Lin Zhao, Zhaoguo Li, Juan Du, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2093–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2093-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2093-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, freshwater lake model simulation results, verified by satellite and buoy observation data, were used to quantify recent climate change effects on the thermal regime of the largest lake in China. Results indicate that the FLake model can reproduce the lake thermal pattern nicely. The lake surface is warming, while the lake bottom has no significant trend. Climate change also caused an earlier ice-off and later ice-on, leading to an obvious change in the energy balance of the lake.
Chloé Poulin, Bruno Hamelin, Christine Vallet-Coulomb, Guinbe Amngar, Bichara Loukman, Jean-François Cretaux, Jean-Claude Doumnang, Abdallah Mahamat Nour, Guillemette Menot, Florence Sylvestre, and Pierre Deschamps
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1705–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1705-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1705-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the water budget of two intertropical lake systems in the absence of long-term hydrological monitoring. By coupling dry season isotopic data with satellite imagery, we were able to provide quantitative constrains on the hydrological balance and show that these two lake systems can be considered miniature analogs of Lake Chad, making them important targets in the future setup of any large-scale program on the hydro-climatic evolution in the Sahel region.
Tom Shatwell, Wim Thiery, and Georgiy Kirillin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used models to project future temperature and mixing in temperate lakes. Lakes will probably warm faster in winter than in summer, making ice less frequent and altering mixing. We found that the layers that form seasonally in lakes (ice, stratification) and water clarity affect how lakes accumulate heat. Seasonal changes in climate were thus important. This helps us better understand how different lake types respond to warming and which physical changes to expect in the future.
Cited articles
Anderson, N. J., Bugmann, H., Dearing, J. A., and Gaillard, M.-J.: Linking
palaeoenvironmental data and models to understand the past and to predict the future, Trends Ecol. Evol., 21, 696–704, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.005, 2006.
Angilletta, M. J. and Dunham, A. E.: The temperature-size rule in ectotherms: simple evolutionary explanations may not be general, Am. Nat., 162, 332–342, https://doi.org/10.1086/377187, 2003.
Anneville, O., Beniston, M., Gallina, N., Gillet, C., Jacquet, S., and
Lazzarotto, J.: L'empreinte du changement climatique sur le Léman, Arch.
Sci., 16, 157–172, 2013.
Ayala, A. I., Moras, S., and Pierson, D. C.: Simulations of future changes
in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3311–3330,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020, 2020.
Balsamo, G., Salgado, R., Dutra, E., Boussetta, S., Stockdale, T., and Potes, M.: On the contribution of lakes in predicting near-surface temperature in a global weather forecasting model, Tellus A, 64, 15829, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.15829, 2012.
Baroudy, E. and Elliott, J. M.: Racial differences in eggs and juveniles of Windermere charr, Salvelinus alpinus, J. Fish Biol., 45, 407–415, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8649.1994.tb01323.x, 1994.
Bertuzzi, P. and Clastre, P.: Information sur les mailles SAFRAN, Recherche Data Gouv, V2, https://doi.org/10.57745/1PDFNL, 2022.
Bruce, L. C., Frassl, M. A., Arhonditsis, G. B., Gal, G., Hamilton, D. P., Hanson, P. C., Hetherington, A. L., Melack, J. M., Read, J. S., Rinke, K.,
Rigosi, A., Trolle, D., Winslow, L., Adrian, R., Ayala, A. I., Bocaniov, S.
A., Boehrer, B., Boon, C., Brookes, J. D., Bueche, T., Busch, B. D., Copetti, D., Cortés, A., de Eyto, E., Elliott, J. A., Gallina, N., Gilboa, Y., Guyennon, N., Huang, L., Kerimoglu, O., Lenters, J. D., MacIntyre, S., Makler-Pick, V., McBride, C. G., Moreira, S., Özkundakci, D., Pilotti, M., Rueda, F. J., Rusak, J. A., Samal, N. R., Schmid, M., Shatwell, T., Snorthheim, C., Soulignac, F., Valerio, G., van der Linden, L., Vetter, M., Vinçon-Leite, B., Wang, J., Weber, M., Wickramaratne, C., Woolway, R. I., Yao, H., and Hipsey, M. R.: A multi-lake comparative analysis of the General Lake Model (GLM): Stress-testing across a global observatory network, Environ. Model. Softw., 102, 274–291, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.11.016, 2018.
Butcher, J. B., Nover, D., Johnson, T. E., and Clark, C. M.: Sensitivity of
lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change, Climatic Change, 129,
295–305, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1326-1, 2015.
Caudron, A., Lasne, E., Gillet, C., Guillard, J., and Champigneulle, A.: Thirty years of reoligotrophication do not contribute to restore self-sustaining fisheries of Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus, in Lake Geneva, Fish. Res., 154, 165–171, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2014.01.023, 2014.
Couture, R.-M., Moe, S. J., Lin, Y., Kaste, Ø., Haande, S., and Lyche Solheim, A.: Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake
Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network, Sci. Total Environ., 621,
713–724, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.303, 2018.
Crossman, J., Eimers, M. C., Kerr, J. G., and Yao, H.: Sensitivity of physical lake processes to climate change within a large Precambrian Shield catchment, Hydrol. Process., 30, 4353–4366, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10915, 2016.
Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Lange, S., Müller
Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., and Buontempo, C.: WFDE5: bias-adjusted ERA5
reanalysis data for impact studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2097–2120,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020.
Danis, P.-A., Von Grafenstein, U., Masson-Delmotte, V., Planton, S., Gerdeaux, D., and Moisselin, J.-M.: Vulnerability of two European lakes in
response to future climatic changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L21507, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020833, 2004.
Daufresne, M., Lengfellner, K., and Sommer, U.: Global warming benefits the
small in aquatic ecosystems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 12788–12793, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0902080106, 2009.
Eckmann, R.: A review of the population dynamics of coregonids in European alpine lakes, Adv. Limnol., 64, 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1127/1612-166X/2013/0064-0002, 2013.
Elliott, J. M. and Elliott, J. A.: Temperature requirements of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus: predicting the effects of climate change, J. Fish Biol., 77, 1793–1817, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02762.x, 2010.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.
J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Fernández Castro, B., Bouffard, D., Troy, C., Ulloa, H. N., Piccolroaz,
S., Sepúlveda Steiner, O., Chmiel, H. E., Serra Moncadas, L., Lavanchy,
S., and Wüest, A.: Seasonality modulates wind-driven mixing pathways in a large lake, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00288-3, 2021.
Ficker, H., Luger, M., and Gassner, H.: From dimictic to monomictic: Empirical evidence of thermal regime transitions in three deep alpine lakes
in Austria induced by climate change, Freshwater Biol., 62, 1335–1345,
https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.12946, 2017.
Gerdeaux, D.: The recent restoration of the whitefish fisheries in Lake Geneva: The roles of stocking, reoligotrophication, and climate change, Ann. Zool. Fenn., 41, 181–189, 2004.
Gillet, C., Breton, B., Mikolajczyk, T., Bodinier, P., and Fostier, A.:
Disruption of the secretion and action of 17,20β-dihydroxy-4-pregnen-3-one in response to a rise in temperature in the Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus. Consequences on oocyte maturation and ovulation, Gen. Comp. Endocrinol., 172, 392–399,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ygcen.2011.04.002, 2011.
Guillard, J., Gillet, C., and Champigneulle, A.: Revue bibliographique –
Principales caractéristiques de l'élevage de l'omble chevalier
(Salvelinus alpinus L.) en eau douce, Bull. Fr. Pêche Piscic., 325, 47–68, https://doi.org/10.1051/kmae:1992014, 1992.
Hamilton, D. P. and Schladow, S. G.: Prediction of water quality in lakes and reservoirs. Part I – Model description, Ecol. Model., 96, 91–110,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(96)00062-2, 1997.
Hipsey, M. R., Bruce, L. C., Boon, C., Busch, B., Carey, C. C., Hamilton, D.
P., Hanson, P. C., Read, J. S., de Sousa, E., Weber, M., and Winslow, L. A.:
A General Lake Model (GLM 3.0) for linking with high-frequency sensor data
from the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON), Geosci. Model
Dev., 12, 473–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-473-2019, 2019.
Idso, S. B.: On the concept of lake stability1, Limnol. Oceanogr., 18, 681–683, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1973.18.4.0681, 1973.
Jane, S. F., Hansen, G. J. A., Kraemer, B. M., Leavitt, P. R., Mincer, J. L., North, R. L., Pilla, R. M., Stetler, J. T., Williamson, C. E., Woolway, R. I., Arvola, L., Chandra, S., DeGasperi, C. L., Diemer, L., Dunalska, J., Erina, O., Flaim, G., Grossart, H.-P., Hambright, K. D., Hein, C., Hejzlar,
J., Janus, L. L., Jenny, J.-P., Jones, J. R., Knoll, L. B., Leoni, B., Mackay, E., Matsuzaki, S.-I. S., McBride, C., Müller-Navarra, D. C., Paterson, A. M., Pierson, D., Rogora, M., Rusak, J. A., Sadro, S., Saulnier-Talbot, E., Schmid, M., Sommaruga, R., Thiery, W., Verburg, P.,
Weathers, K. C., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Yokota, K., and Rose, K. C.: Widespread
deoxygenation of temperate lakes, Nature, 594, 66–70,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03550-y, 2021.
Jenny, J.-P., Anneville, O., Arnaud, F., Baulaz, Y., Bouffard, D., Domaizon,
I., Bocaniov, S. A., Chèvre, N., Dittrich, M., Dorioz, J.-M., Dunlop, E.
S., Dur, G., Guillard, J., Guinaldo, T., Jacquet, S., Jamoneau, A., Jawed,
Z., Jeppesen, E., Krantzberg, G., Lenters, J., Leoni, B., Meybeck, M., Nava,
V., Nõges, T., Nõges, P., Patelli, M., Pebbles, V., Perga, M.-E.,
Rasconi, S., Ruetz, C. R., Rudstam, L., Salmaso, N., Sapna, S., Straile, D.,
Tammeorg, O., Twiss, M. R., Uzarski, D. G., Ventelä, A.-M., Vincent, W.
F., Wilhelm, S. W., Wängberg, S.-Å., and Weyhenmeyer, G. A.: Scientists' Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world's large
lakes, J. Gt. Lakes Res., 46, 686–702, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2020.05.006, 2020.
Jiang, L., Fang, X., Stefan, H. G., Jacobson, P. C., and Pereira, D. L.:
Oxythermal habitat parameters and identifying cisco refuge lakes in Minnesota under future climate scenarios using variable benchmark periods, Ecol. Model., 232, 14–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.014, 2012.
Kobler, U. G. and Schmid, M.: Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped-storage operation and climate change, Hydrol. Process., 33, 2676–2690, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13519, 2019.
Kraemer, B. M., Pilla, R. M., Woolway, R. I., Anneville, O., Ban, S., Colom-Montero, W., Devlin, S. P., Dokulil, M. T., Gaiser, E. E., Hambright, K. D., Hessen, D. O., Higgins, S. N., Jöhnk, K. D., Keller, W., Knoll, L. B., Leavitt, P. R., Lepori, F., Luger, M. S., Maberly, S. C., Müller-Navarra, D. C., Paterson, A. M., Pierson, D. C., Richardson, D. C., Rogora, M., Rusak, J. A., Sadro, S., Salmaso, N., Schmid, M., Silow, E. A., Sommaruga, R., Stelzer, J. A. A., Straile, D., Thiery, W., Timofeyev, M. A., Verburg, P., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., and Adrian, R.: Climate change drives widespread shifts in lake thermal habitat, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 521–529, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01060-3, 2021.
Lange, S.: Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with
ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3055–3070,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, 2019a.
Lange, S.: WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5) (1.0),
PIK – Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Reseach, https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2019.023, 2019b.
Livingstone, D. M.: Impact of Secular Climate Change on the Thermal Structure of a Large Temperate Central European Lake, Climatic Change, 57, 205–225, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022119503144, 2003.
Livingstone, D. M. and Dokulil, M. T.: Eighty years of spatially coherent Austrian lake surface temperatures and their relationship to regional air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Limnol. Oceanogr., 46, 1220–1227, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2001.46.5.1220, 2001.
Magee, M. R., McIntyre, P. B., and Wu, C. H.: Modeling oxythermal stress for
cool-water fishes in lakes using a cumulative dosage approach, Can. J. Fish.
Aquat. Sci., 75, 1303–1312, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0260, 2018.
Mari, L., Garaud, L., Evanno, G., and Lasne, E.: Higher temperature exacerbates the impact of sediments on embryo performances in a salmonid,
Biol. Lett., 12, 20160745, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0745, 2016.
Mohseni, O., Stefan, H. G., and Eaton, J. G.: Global Warming and Potential
Changes in Fish Habitat in U.S. Streams, Climatic Change, 59, 389–409,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024847723344, 2003.
Moore, T. N., Mesman, J. P., Ladwig, R., Feldbauer, J., Olsson, F., Pilla, R. M., Shatwell, T., Venkiteswaran, J. J., Delany, A. D., Dugan, H., Rose, K. C., and Read, J. S.: LakeEnsemblR: An R package that facilitates ensemble
modelling of lakes, Environ. Model. Softw., 143, 105101, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105101, 2021.
O'Reilly, C. M., Sharma, S., Gray, D. K., Hampton, S. E., Read, J. S., Rowley, R. J., Schneider, P., Lenters, J. D., McIntyre, P. B., Kraemer, B.
M., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Straile, D., Dong, B., Adrian, R., Allan, M. G.,
Anneville, O., Arvola, L., Austin, J., Bailey, J. L., Baron, J. S., Brookes,
J. D., de Eyto, E., Dokulil, M. T., Hamilton, D. P., Havens, K., Hetherington, A. L., Higgins, S. N., Hook, S., Izmest'eva, L. R., Joehnk, K.
D., Kangur, K., Kasprzak, P., Kumagai, M., Kuusisto, E., Leshkevich, G.,
Livingstone, D. M., MacIntyre, S., May, L., Melack, J. M., Mueller-Navarra, D. C., Naumenko, M., Noges, P., Noges, T., North, R. P., Plisnier, P.-D.,
Rigosi, A., Rimmer, A., Rogora, M., Rudstam, L. G., Rusak, J. A., Salmaso,
N., Samal, N. R., Schindler, D. E., Schladow, S. G., Schmid, M., Schmidt, S.
R., Silow, E., Soylu, M. E., Teubner, K., Verburg, P., Voutilainen, A.,
Watkinson, A., Williamson, C. E., and Zhang, G.: Rapid and highly variable
warming of lake surface waters around the globe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42,
10773–10781, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066235, 2015.
Parmesan, C.: Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst., 37, 637–669, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100, 2006.
Perga, M.-E., Bruel, R., Rodriguez, L., Guénand, Y., and Bouffard, D.:
Storm impacts on alpine lakes: Antecedent weather conditions matter more than the event intensity, Global Change Biol., 24, 5004–5016, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14384, 2018.
Piccioni, F., Casenave, C., Lemaire, B. J., Le Moigne, P., Dubois, P., and
Vinçon-Leite, B.: The thermal response of small and shallow lakes to climate change: new insights from 3D hindcast modelling, Earth Syst. Dynam.,
12, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-439-2021, 2021.
Piccolroaz, S., Toffolon, M., and Majone, B.: A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3323–3338, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3323-2013, 2013.
Pourriot, R. and Meybeck, M.: Limnologie générale, in: Collection d'écologie 25, Masson, Paris, p. 956, ISBN 2-225-84687-1, 1995.
Rajwa-Kuligiewicz, A., Rowiński, P., Bialik, R., and Karpiński, M.:
Stream diurnal profiles of dissolved oxygen – case studies, in: Proc. 3rd IAHR Europe Congress, Porto, Portugal, ISBN 978-989-96479-2-3, 2014.
Råman Vinnå, L., Wüest, A., and Bouffard, D.: Physical effects
of thermal pollution in lakes, Water Resour. Res., 53, 3968–3987,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019686, 2017.
Råman Vinnå, L., Wüest, A., Zappa, M., Fink, G., and Bouffard,
D.: Tributaries affect the thermal response of lakes to climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 31–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-31-2018, 2018.
Råman Vinnå, L., Medhaug, I., Schmid, M., and Bouffard, D.: The
vulnerability of lakes to climate change along an altitudinal gradient, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 35, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00106-w, 2021.
R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 14 February 2023), 2021.
Réalis-Doyelle, E.: Influence de la température sur les premiers
stades de vie de trois espèces de poissons dulcicoles: étude de la
survie et de la plasticité phénotypique, Phd thesis, Université
de Lorraine, https://theses.hal.science/tel-01540861/document (last access: 13 February 2023), 2016.
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C.,
Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., Kc, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D.,
Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G.,
Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M.,
Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A.,
and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land
use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview, Global Environ.
Change, 42, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, 2017.
Ridout, M. S. and Linkie, M.: Estimating overlap of daily activity patterns
from camera trap data, J. Agric. Biol. Environ. Stat., 14, 322–337,
https://doi.org/10.1198/jabes.2009.08038, 2009.
Rimet, F., Anneville, O., Barbet, D., Chardon, C., Crépin, L., Domaizon, I., Dorioz, J.-M., Espinat, L., Frossard, V., Guillard, J., Goulon, C., Hamelet, V., Hustache, J.-C., Jacquet, S., Lainé, L., Montuelle, B., Perney, P., Quetin, P., Rasconi, S., and Monet, G.: The Observatory on LAkes (OLA) database: Sixty years of environmental data accessible to the public, J. Limnol., 79, 164–178, https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2020.1944, 2020.
Roberts, J. J., Höök, T. O., Ludsin, S. A., Pothoven, S. A., Vanderploeg, H. A., and Brandt, S. B.: Effects of hypolimnetic hypoxia on
foraging and distributions of Lake Erie yellow perch, J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 381, S132–S142, 2009a.
Roberts, J. J., Höök, T. O., Ludsin, S. A., Pothoven, S. A., Vanderploeg, H. A., and Brandt, S. B.: Effects of hypolimnetic hypoxia on
foraging and distributions of Lake Erie yellow perch, J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 381, S132–S142, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2009.07.017, 2009b.
Robertson, D. and Ragotzkie, R.: Changes in the thermal structure of moderate to large sized lakes in response to changes in air temperature, Aquat. Sci., 52, 360–380, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00879763, 1990.
Sadeghian, A., Hudson, J., and Lindenschmidt, K.-E.: Effects of quality
controlled measured and re-analysed meteorological data on the performance
of water temperature simulations, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 67, 21–39, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1994975, 2021.
Saloranta, T. M.: Highlighting the model code selection and application
process in policy-relevant water quality modelling, Ecol. Model., 194, 316–327, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.10.031, 2006.
Saloranta, T. M. and Andersen, T.: MyLake – A multi-year lake simulation model code suitable for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis simulations,
Ecol. Model., 207, 45–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.018, 2007.
Schmid, M. and Köster, O.: Excess warming of a Central European lake
driven by solar brightening, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8103–8116,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR018651, 2016.
Shatwell, T., Thiery, W., and Kirillin, G.: Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019, 2019.
Snortheim, C. A., Hanson, P. C., McMahon, K. D., Read, J. S., Carey, C. C.,
and Dugan, H. A.: Meteorological drivers of hypolimnetic anoxia in a eutrophic, north temperate lake, Ecol. Model., 343, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.10.014, 2017.
Soares, L. M. V. and Calijuri, M. do C.: Deterministic modelling of freshwater lakes and reservoirs: Current trends and recent progress, Environ. Model. Softw., 144, 105143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105143, 2021.
Trolle, D., Hamilton, D. P., Hipsey, M. R., Bolding, K., Bruggeman, J., Mooij, W. M., Janse, J. H., Nielsen, A., Jeppesen, E., Elliott, J. A.,
Makler-Pick, V., Petzoldt, T., Rinke, K., Flindt, M. R., Arhonditsis, G. B.,
Gal, G., Bjerring, R., Tominaga, K., Hoen, J., Downing, A. S., Marques, D. M., Fragoso, C. R., Søndergaard, M., and Hanson, P. C.: A community-based
framework for aquatic ecosystem models, Hydrobiologia, 683, 25–34,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-011-0957-0, 2012.
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011.
Vinçon-Leite, B., Lemaire, B. J., Khac, V. T., and Tassin, B.: Long-term
temperature evolution in a deep sub-alpine lake, Lake Bourget, France: how a
one-dimensional model improves its trend assessment, Hydrobiologia, 731,
49–64, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-014-1818-4, 2014.
Walther, G. R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J. C., Fromentin, J. M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and Bairlein, F.: Ecological responses to recent climate change, Nature, 416, 389–395, https://doi.org/10.1038/416389a, 2002.
Wetzel, R. G.: Limnology: Lake and River Ecosystems, Academic Press, 1024 pp., eBook ISBN 9780080574394, Hardcover ISBN 9780127447605, 2001.
Williamson, C. E., Saros, J. E., Vincent, W. F., and Smol, J. P.: Lakes and
reservoirs as sentinels, integrators, and regulators of climate change, Limnol. Oceanogr., 54, 2273–2282, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2009.54.6_part_2.2273, 2009.
Winslow, L., Read, J., Woolway, R., Brentrup, J., Leach, T., Zwart, J.,
Albers, S., and Collinge, D.: rLakeAnalyzer: Lake Physics Tools, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/rLakeAnalyzer/rLakeAnalyzer.pdf
(last access: 13 February 2023), 2019.
Woolway, R. I. and Merchant, C. J.: Worldwide alteration of lake mixing
regimes in response to climate change, Nat. Geosci., 12, 271–276,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0322-x, 2019.
Woolway, R. I., Sharma, S., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Debolskiy, A., Golub, M.,
Mercado-Bettín, D., Perroud, M., Stepanenko, V., Tan, Z., Grant, L., Ladwig, R., Mesman, J., Moore, T. N., Shatwell, T., Vanderkelen, I., Austin,
J. A., DeGasperi, C. L., Dokulil, M., La Fuente, S., Mackay, E. B., Schladow, S. G., Watanabe, S., Marcé, R., Pierson, D. C., Thiery, W., and Jennings, E.: Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change, Nat. Commun., 12, 2318, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4, 2021.
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(7155 KB) - Full-text XML
- Corrigendum
-
Supplement
(951 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Short summary
The long-term effects of climate change will include an increase in lake surface and deep water temperatures. Incorporating up to 6 decades of limnological monitoring into an improved 1D lake model approach allows us to predict the thermal regime and oxygen solubility in four peri-alpine lakes over the period 1850–2100. Our modeling approach includes a revised selection of forcing variables and provides a way to investigate the impacts of climate variations on lakes for centennial timescales.
The long-term effects of climate change will include an increase in lake surface and deep water...
