Articles | Volume 27, issue 22
Opinion article
28 Nov 2023
Opinion article |  | 28 Nov 2023

HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects

Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen, Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Art Dewulf, Alexandre C. Costa, Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, and Pieter R. van Oel

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From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter van Oel
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Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
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Mind the Gap: Misalignment Between Drought Monitoring and Community Realities
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Drought intensity–duration–frequency curves based on deficit in precipitation and streamflow for water resources management
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Cited articles

Acosta-Michlik, L. and Espaldon, V.: Assessing vulnerability of selected farming communities in the Philippines based on a behavioural model of agent's adaptation to global environmental change, Global Environ. Chang., 18, 554–563,, 2008. 
Bahrami, N., Reza Nikoo, M., Al-Rawas, G., Al-Wardy, M., and Gandomi, A. H.: Reservoir optimal operation with an integrated approach for managing floods and droughts using NSGA-III and prospect behavioral theory, J. Hydrol., 610, 127961,, 2022. 
Bakarji, J., O'Malley, D., and Vesselinov, V. V.: Agent-Based Socio-Hydrological Hybrid Modeling for Water Resource Management, Water Resour. Manag., 31, 3881–3898,, 2017. 
Cavalcante, L., Dewulf, A., and van Oel, P.: Fighting against, and coping with, drought in Brazil: two policy paradigms intertwined, Reg. Environ. Change, 22, 111,, 2022. 
Cunha, A. P. M. A., Tomasella, J., Ribeiro-Neto, G. G., Brown, M., Garcia, S. R., Brito, S. B., and Carvalho, M. A.: Changes in the spatial-temporal patterns of droughts in the Brazilian Northeast, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 19, e855,, 2018. 
Short summary
People induce and modify droughts. However, we do not know exactly how relevant human and natural processes interact nor how to evaluate the co-evolution of people and water. Prospect theory can help us to explain the emergence of drought impacts leading to failed welfare expectations (“prospects”) due to water shortage. Our approach helps to explain socio-hydrological phenomena, such as reservoir effects, and can contribute to integrated drought management considering the local context.