Articles | Volume 27, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Jun 2023
Research article |
| 14 Jun 2023
| 14 Jun 2023
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
School of Geosciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
Environmental and Biochemical Sciences, The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, Scotland
Christopher A. J. Macleod
Information and Computational Sciences, The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, Scotland
Marc J. Metzger
School of Geosciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
Nicola Melville
Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Strathallan House, Stirling, Scotland
Rachel C. Helliwell
Environmental and Biochemical Sciences, The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, Scotland
Jim Pritchard
Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Strathallan House, Stirling, Scotland
Miriam Glendell
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Environmental and Biochemical Sciences, The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, Scotland
Related authors
No articles found.
Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pesticides continue to pose a threat to surface water quality worldwide. Here, we present a spatial Bayesian belief network (BBN) for assessing inherent pesticide risk to water quality. The BBN was applied in a small catchment with limited data to simulate the risk of five pesticides and evaluate the likely effectiveness of mitigation measures. The probabilistic graphical model combines diverse data and explicitly accounts for uncertainties, which are often ignored in pesticide risk assessments.
Jingjing Guo, Miriam Glendell, Jeroen Meersmans, Frédérique Kirkels, Jack J. Middelburg, and Francien Peterse
Biogeosciences, 17, 3183–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3183-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The fluxes of soil organic carbon (OC) transport from land to sea are poorly constrained, mostly due to the lack of a specific tracer for soil OC. Here we evaluate the use of specific molecules derived from soil bacteria as a tracer for soil OC in a small river catchment. We find that the initial soil signal is lost upon entering the aquatic environment. However, the local environmental history of the catchment is reflected by these molecules in the lake sediments that act as their sink.
Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim E. Freer, Thorsten Wagener, Penny J. Johnes, John P. Bloomfield, Sheila Greene, Christopher J. A. Macleod, and Sim M. Reaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4011–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated four hydrological model structures and their parameters on over 1100 catchments across Great Britain, considering modelling uncertainties. Models performed well for most catchments but failed in parts of Scotland and south-eastern England. Failures were often linked to inconsistencies in the water balance. This research shows what conceptual lumped models can achieve, gives insights into where and why these models may fail, and provides a benchmark of national modelling capability.
Fortune Faith Gomo, Christopher Macleod, John Rowan, Jagadeesh Yeluripati, and Kairsty Topp
Proc. IAHS, 376, 15–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-376-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-376-15-2018, 2018
Mary C. Ockenden, Wlodek Tych, Keith J. Beven, Adrian L. Collins, Robert Evans, Peter D. Falloon, Kirsty J. Forber, Kevin M. Hiscock, Michael J. Hollaway, Ron Kahana, Christopher J. A. Macleod, Martha L. Villamizar, Catherine Wearing, Paul J. A. Withers, Jian G. Zhou, Clare McW. H. Benskin, Sean Burke, Richard J. Cooper, Jim E. Freer, and Philip M. Haygarth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6425–6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6425-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6425-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes simple models of phosphorus load which are identified for three catchments in the UK. The models use new hourly observations of phosphorus load, which capture the dynamics of phosphorus transfer in small catchments that are often missed by models with a longer time step. Unlike more complex, process-based models, very few parameters are required, leading to low parameter uncertainty. Interpretation of the dominant phosphorus transfer modes is made based solely on the data.
D. Graeber, G. Goyenola, M. Meerhoff, E. Zwirnmann, N. B. Ovesen, M. Glendell, J. Gelbrecht, F. Teixeira de Mello, I. González-Bergonzoni, E. Jeppesen, and B. Kronvang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2377–2394, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2377-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2377-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
A generalised ecohydrological landscape classification for assessing ecosystem risk in Australia due to an altering water regime
Process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model for complex water resource systems considering reclaimed water
Joint optimal operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering the evenness of water deficit
Employing the generalized Pareto distribution to analyze extreme rainfall events on consecutive rainy days in Thailand's Chi watershed: implications for flood management
Leveraging a Novel Hybrid Ensemble and Optimal Interpolation Approach for Enhanced Streamflow and Flood Prediction
How to account for irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Climate-change impact on reservoir evaporation and water availability in a tropical sub-humid region, north-eastern Brazil
How economically and environmentally viable are multiple dams in the Upper Cauvery basin, India? A hydro-economic analysis using a landscape-based hydrological model
The H2Ours game to explore Water Use, Resources and Sustainability: connecting issues in two landscapes in Indonesia
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
Drainage assessment of irrigation districts: on the precision and accuracy of four parsimonious models
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Drought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain
Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
Probabilistic modelling of the inherent field-level pesticide pollution risk in a small drinking water catchment using spatial Bayesian belief networks
Are maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?
Historical simulation of maize water footprints with a new global gridded crop model ACEA
Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream water availability in the transboundary Indus Basin
Identifying the dynamic evolution and feedback process of water resources nexus system considering socioeconomic development, ecological protection, and food security: A practical tool for sustainable water use
Optimizing a backscatter forward operator using Sentinel-1 data over irrigated land
Robustness of a parsimonious subsurface drainage model at the French national scale
Spatially distributed impacts of climate change and groundwater demand on the water resources in a wadi system
Delineation of dew formation zones in Iran using long-term model simulations and cluster analysis
Streamflow estimation at partially gaged sites using multiple-dependence conditions via vine copulas
Water resources management and dynamic changes in water politics in the transboundary river basins of Central Asia
Assessing interannual variability in nitrogen sourcing and retention through hybrid Bayesian watershed modeling
Minimizing the impact of vacating instream storage of a multi-reservoir system: a trade-off study of water supply and empty flushing
Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption
Signatures of human intervention – or not? Downstream intensification of hydrological drought along a large Central Asian river: the individual roles of climate variability and land use change
Field-scale soil moisture bridges the spatial-scale gap between drought monitoring and agricultural yields
Socio-hydrologic modeling of the dynamics of cooperation in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong River
Multi-level storylines for participatory modeling – involving marginalized communities in Tz'olöj Ya', Mayan Guatemala
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden
Alexander Herr, Linda E. Merrin, Patrick J. Mitchell, Anthony P. O'Grady, Kate L. Holland, Richard E. Mount, David A. Post, Chris R. Pavey, and Ashley D. Sparrow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1957–1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an ecohydrological classification for regions with limited hydrological records. It provides causal links of landscape features and their water requirement. The classification is an essential framework for modelling the impact of future coal resource developments via water on the features. A rule set combines diverse data with prioritisation, resulting in a transparent, repeatable and adjustable approach. We show examples of linking ecohydrology with environmental impacts.
Jing Liu, Yue-Ping Xu, Wei Zhang, Shiwu Wang, and Siwei Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1325–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Applying optimal water allocation models to simultaneously enable economic benefits, water preferences, and environmental demands at different decision levels, timescales, and regions is a challenge. In this study, a process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model (PTSOA) is established to achieve these goals. Reused, reclaimed water is also coupled to capture environmentally friendly solutions. Network analysis was introduced to reduce competition among different stakeholders.
Bing-Yi Zhou, Guo-Hua Fang, Xin Li, Jian Zhou, and Hua-Yu Zhong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 817–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The current unreasonable inter-basin water transfer operation leads to the problem of spatial and temporal imbalances in water allocation. This paper defines a water deficit evenness index and incorporates it into a joint optimization model for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering ecology and economy. At the same time, the lake storage capacity performs well, and the water transfer efficiency of the river is significantly improved.
Tossapol Phoophiwfa, Prapawan Chomphuwiset, Thanawan Prahadchai, Jeong-Soo Park, Arthit Apichottanakul, Watchara Theppang, and Piyapatr Busababodhin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risk management in Thailand's Chi watershed. By analyzing historical data, we identified regions, notably Udon Thani and Chaiyaphum, with a high risk of flash flooding. To aid in flood risk assessment, visual maps were created. The study underscores the importance of preparing for extreme rainfall events, particularly in the context of climate change, to effectively mitigate potential flood damage.
Mohamad El Gharamti, Arezoo RafieeiNasab, and James L. McCreight
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-269, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-269, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a hybrid data assimilation scheme for precise streamflow predictions during intense rainfall and hurricanes. Tested in real events, it outperforms traditional methods by up to 50 %, utilizing ensemble and climatological background covariances. The adaptive algorithm ensures reliability with a small ensemble, offering improved forecasts up to 18 hours in advance, marking a significant advancement in flood prediction capabilities.
Elisabeth Brochet, Youen Grusson, Sabine Sauvage, Ludovic Lhuissier, and Valérie Demarez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 49–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to take into account irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model. The model we used combines agriculture and hydrological modeling. Two different crop models were compared, the first based on air temperature and the second based on Sentinel-2 satellite data. Results show that including remote sensing data leads to better emergence dates. Both methods allow us to simulate the daily irrigation withdrawals and downstream flow with a good accuracy, especially during low-flow periods.
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-189, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-189, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The research focused in a four-million-inhabitants tropical region supplied by a network of open-water reservoirs whose dry season lasts 8 months (Jun−Dec). We analysed the impact of four climate change scenarios on the evaporation rate and the associated availability (water yield distributed per year). The worst-case scenario shows that by the end of the century (2071−2099) the evaporation rate in the dry season could increase by 6 %, which would reduce the stored water by about 80 %.
Anjana Ekka, Yong Jiang, Saket Pande, and Pieter van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-204, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time we analyse the economic and ecological performances of existing multiple big reservoirs at daily time scale for a major river basin (Upper Cauvery) in India where pre-intervention data were not available but where there are increasing calls for such assessments. Results show that smaller reservoirs on smaller streams that maximize the economic value of water stored are better for the basin economy and the environment. The approach can help to prioritize dam removals.
Lisa Tanika, Rika Ratna Sari, Arief Lukman Hakim, Meine van Noordwijk, Marielos Peña-Claros, Beria Leimona, Edi Purwanto, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-154, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-154, 2023
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
The H2Ours game is designed to facilitate knowledge transfer and sharing among stakeholders to trigger commitments and collaborative actions to restore the hydrological conditions. The adaptability of H2Ours game was proven in two different landscapes: a groundwater recharge in upper-middle sub-watersheds with (over)use water in the lowlands zone, and a peatland with drainage-rewetting, oil palm conversion, and fire as issues. The game evaluation shows that the H2Ours game meets its purpose.
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep M. Villar, and Olivier Merlin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-543, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data, and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles and Christian L. E. Franzke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pesticides continue to pose a threat to surface water quality worldwide. Here, we present a spatial Bayesian belief network (BBN) for assessing inherent pesticide risk to water quality. The BBN was applied in a small catchment with limited data to simulate the risk of five pesticides and evaluate the likely effectiveness of mitigation measures. The probabilistic graphical model combines diverse data and explicitly accounts for uncertainties, which are often ignored in pesticide risk assessments.
Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Christen Duus Børgesen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, and Dennis Trolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how the spatial nitrate reduction in the subsurface may shift under changing climate and land use conditions. This change is investigated by comparing maps showing the spatial nitrate reduction in an agricultural catchment for current conditions, with maps generated for future projected climate and land use conditions. Results show that future climate flow paths may shift the catchment reduction noticeably, while implications of land use changes were less substantial.
Oleksandr Mialyk, Joep F. Schyns, Martijn J. Booij, and Rick J. Hogeboom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 923–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As the global demand for crops is increasing, it is vital to understand spatial and temporal patterns of crop water footprints (WFs). Previous studies looked into spatial patterns but not into temporal ones. Here, we present a new process-based gridded crop model to simulate WFs and apply it for maize in 1986–2016. We show that despite the average unit WF reduction (−35 %), the global WF of maize production has increased (+50 %), which might harm ecosystems and human livelihoods in some regions.
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
Yaogeng Tan, Zengchuan Dong, Sandra M. Guzman, Xinkui Wang, and Wei Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6495–6522, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6495-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The rapid increase in economic development and urbanization is contributing to the imbalances and conflicts between water supply and demand and further deteriorates river ecological health, which intensifies their interactions and causes water unsustainability. This paper proposes a methodology for sustainable development of water resources, considering socioeconomic development, food safety, and ecological protection, and the dynamic interactions across those water users are further assessed.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Alexis Jeantet, Hocine Henine, Cédric Chaumont, Lila Collet, Guillaume Thirel, and Julien Tournebize
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5447–5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrological subsurface drainage model SIDRA-RU is assessed at the French national scale, using a unique database representing the large majority of the French drained areas. The model is evaluated following its capacity to simulate the drainage discharge variability and the annual drained water balance. Eventually, the temporal robustness of SIDRA-RU is assessed to demonstrate the utility of this model as a long-term management tool.
Nariman Mahmoodi, Jens Kiesel, Paul D. Wagner, and Nicola Fohrer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5065–5081, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5065-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assessed the sustainability of water resources in a wadi region with the help of a hydrologic model. Our assessment showed that the increases in groundwater demand and consumption exacerbate the negative impact of climate change on groundwater sustainability and hydrologic regime alteration. These alterations have severe consequences for a downstream wetland and its ecosystem. The approach may be applicable in other wadi regions with different climate and water use systems.
Nahid Atashi, Dariush Rahimi, Victoria A. Sinclair, Martha A. Zaidan, Anton Rusanen, Henri Vuollekoski, Markku Kulmala, Timo Vesala, and Tareq Hussein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4719–4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4719-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Dew formation potential during a long-term period (1979–2018) was assessed in Iran to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. The dew formation trend was significantly negative.
Kuk-Hyun Ahn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4319–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a multiple-dependence model for estimating streamflow at partially gaged sites. The evaluations are conducted on a case study of the eastern USA and show that the proposed model is suited for infilling missing values. The performance is further evaluated with six other infilling models. Results demonstrate that the proposed model produces more reliable streamflow estimates than the other approaches. The model can be applicable to other hydro-climatological variables.
Xuanxuan Wang, Yaning Chen, Zhi Li, Gonghuan Fang, Fei Wang, and Haichao Hao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3281–3299, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3281-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The growing water crisis in Central Asia and the complex water politics of the region's transboundary rivers are a hot topic for research, while the dynamic changes of water politics in Central Asia have yet to be studied in depth. Based on the Gini coefficient, water political events and social network analysis, we analyzed the matching degree between water and socio-economic elements and the dynamics of hydropolitics in transboundary river basins of Central Asia.
Jonathan W. Miller, Kimia Karimi, Arumugam Sankarasubramanian, and Daniel R. Obenour
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2789–2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2789-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2789-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Within a watershed, nutrient export can vary greatly over time and space. In this study, we develop a model to leverage over 30 years of streamflow, precipitation, and nutrient sampling data to characterize nitrogen export from various livestock and land use types across a range of precipitation conditions. Modeling results reveal that urban lands developed before 1980 have remarkably high levels of nitrogen export, while agricultural export is most responsive to precipitation.
Chia-Wen Wu, Frederick N.-F. Chou, and Fong-Zuo Lee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2063–2087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2063-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2063-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper promotes the feasibility of emptying instream storage through joint operation of multiple reservoirs. The trade-off between water supply and emptying reservoir storage and alleviating impacts on downstream environment are thoroughly discussed. Operation of reservoirs is optimized to calibrate the optimal parameters defining the activation and termination of emptying reservoir. The optimized strategy limits the water shortage and maximizes the expected benefits of emptying reservoir.
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Artemis Roodari, Markus Hrachowitz, Farzad Hassanpour, and Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1943–1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1943-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In a combined data analysis and modeling study in the transboundary Helmand River basin, we analyzed spatial patterns of drought and changes therein based on the drought indices as well as on absolute water deficits. Overall the results illustrate that flow deficits and the associated droughts clearly reflect the dynamic interplay between temporally varying regional differences in hydro-meteorological variables together with subtle and temporally varying effects linked to human intervention.
Noemi Vergopolan, Sitian Xiong, Lyndon Estes, Niko Wanders, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Eric F. Wood, Megan Konar, Kelly Caylor, Hylke E. Beck, Nicolas Gatti, Tom Evans, and Justin Sheffield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1827-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1827-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Drought monitoring and yield prediction often rely on coarse-scale hydroclimate data or (infrequent) vegetation indexes that do not always indicate the conditions farmers face in the field. Consequently, decision-making based on these indices can often be disconnected from the farmer reality. Our study focuses on smallholder farming systems in data-sparse developing countries, and it shows how field-scale soil moisture can leverage and improve crop yield prediction and drought impact assessment.
You Lu, Fuqiang Tian, Liying Guo, Iolanda Borzì, Rupesh Patil, Jing Wei, Dengfeng Liu, Yongping Wei, David J. Yu, and Murugesu Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1883–1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1883-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The upstream countries in the transboundary Lancang–Mekong basin build dams for hydropower, while downstream ones gain irrigation and fishery benefits. Dam operation changes the seasonality of runoff downstream, resulting in their concerns. Upstream countries may cooperate and change their regulations of dams to gain indirect political benefits. The socio-hydrological model couples hydrology, reservoir, economy, and cooperation and reproduces the phenomena, providing a useful model framework.
Jessica A. Bou Nassar, Julien J. Malard, Jan F. Adamowski, Marco Ramírez Ramírez, Wietske Medema, and Héctor Tuy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1283–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1283-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our research suggests a method that facilitates the inclusion of marginalized stakeholders in model-building activities to address problems in water resources. Our case study showed that knowledge produced by typically excluded stakeholders had significant and unique contributions to the outcome of the process. Moreover, our method facilitated the identification of relationships between societal, economic, and hydrological factors, and it fostered collaborations across different communities.
Marc Girons Lopez, Louise Crochemore, and Ilias G. Pechlivanidis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1189–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Swedish hydrological warning service is extending its use of seasonal forecasts, which requires an analysis of the available methods. We evaluate the simple ESP method and find out how and why forecasts vary in time and space. We find that forecasts are useful up to 3 months into the future, especially during winter and in northern Sweden. They tend to be good in slow-reacting catchments and bad in flashy and highly regulated ones. We finally link them with areas of similar behaviour.
Cited articles
Adams, K. J., Metzger, M. J., Macleod, C. J. A., Helliwell, R. C., and
Pohle, I.: Understanding knowledge needs for Scotland to become a resilient
Hydro Nation: Water stakeholder perspectives, Environ. Sci.
Policy, 136, 157–166, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2022.06.006, 2022.
Adger, W. N.: Social and ecological resilience: are they related?, Prog. Hum. Geog., 24,
347–364, 2000.
Aguilera, P. A., Fernández, A., Fernández, R., Rumí, R., and
Salmerón, A.: Bayesian networks in environmental modelling,
Environ. Modell. Softw., 26, 1376–1388,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.06.004, 2011.
Aguilera, P. A., Fernández, A., Ropero, R. F., and Molina, L.:
Groundwater quality assessment using data clustering based on hybrid
Bayesian networks, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk A.,
27, 435–447, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-012-0676-8, 2013.
Alcamo, J.: Chapter Six The SAS Approach: Combining Qualitative and
Quantitative Knowledge in Environmental Scenarios, in: Developments in
Integrated Environmental Assessment, edited by: Alcamo, J., Elsevier,
123–150, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00406-7, 2008.
Ames, D. P., Neilson, B. T., Stevens, D. K., and Lall, U.: Using Bayesian
networks to model watershed management decisions: an East Canyon Creek case
study, J. Hydroinform., 7, 267–282,
https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2005.0023, 2005.
Barton, D. N., Saloranta, T., Moe, S. J., Eggestad, H. O., and Kuikka, S.:
Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin
management – Pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions
under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin, Ecol. Econ., 66,
91–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.02.012, 2008.
Barton, D. N., Kuikka, S., Varis, O., Uusitalo, L., Henriksen, H. J., Borsuk, M., de la Hera, A., Farmani, R., Johnson, S., and Linnell, J. D.: Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management, Integr. Environ. Asses., 8, 418–429, https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.1327, 2012.
Basco-Carrera, L., Warren, A., van Beek, E., Jonoski, A., and Giardino, A.:
Collaborative modelling or participatory modelling? A framework for water
resources management, Environ. Modell. Softw., 91, 95–110,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.01.014, 2017.
BayesFusion, L. L. C.: GeNIe Modeler, User Manual,
https://support.bayesfusion.com/docs/ (last access: 28 July 2022), 2017.
Beuzen, T., Marshall, L., and Splinter, K. D.: A comparison of methods for
discretizing continuous variables in Bayesian Networks, Environ.
Modell. Softw., 108, 61–66,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.007, 2018.
Boretti, A. and Rosa, L.: Reassessing the projections of the World Water
Development Report. npj Clean Water, 2, 15,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-019-0039-9, 2019.
Borsuk, M. E., Stow, C. A., and Reckhow, K. H.: A Bayesian network of
eutrophication models for synthesis, prediction, and uncertainty analysis,
Ecol. Model., 173, 219–239,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2003.08.020, 2004.
Borsuk, M. E., Schweizer, S. and Reichert, P.: A Bayesian network model for
integrative river rehabilitation planning and management, Integr. Environ. Asses., 8, 462–472,
https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.233, 2012.
Brown, K.: Resilience, development and global change, Routledge, ISBN 9780415663472, 2015.
Callahan, B., Miles, E., and Fluharty, D. J. P. S.: Policy implications of
climate forecasts for water resources management in the Pacific Northwest,
Policy Sci., 32, 269–293, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004604805647, 1999.
Carvalho, L., Mackay, E. B., Cardoso, A. C., Baattrup-Pedersen, A., Birk,
S., Blackstock, K. L., Borics, G., Borja, A., Feld, C. K., Ferreira, M. T., Globevnik, L., Grizzetti, B., Hnedry, S., Hering, D., Kelly, M., Langaas, S., Meissner, K., Panagopoulos, Y., Penning, E., Rouillard, J., Sabater, S., Schmedtje, U., Spears, B. M., Venhor, M., van de Bund, W., and Solheim, A. L.: Protecting and restoring Europe's
waters: An analysis of the future development needs of the Water Framework
Directive, Sci. Total Environ., 658, 1228–1238,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.255 2019.
Castelletti, A. and Soncini-Sessa, R.: Bayesian Networks and participatory
modelling in water resource management, Environ. Modell.
Softw., 22, 1075–1088, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.06.003,
2007.
Chen, S. H. and Pollino, C. A.: Good practice in Bayesian network
modelling, Environ. Modell.
Softw., 37, 134–145,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.03.012, 2012.
Cretney, R.: Resilience for Whom? Emerging Critical Geographies of
Socio-ecological Resilience, Geograpy compass, 8, 627–640, 2014.
Crossman, J., Whitehead, P. G., Futter, M. N., Jin, L., Shahgedanova, M.,
Castellazzi, M., and Wade, A. J.: The interactive responses of water quality
and hydrology to changes in multiple stressors, and implications for the
long-term effective management of phosphorus, Sci. Total
Environ., 454–455, 230–244,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.033, 2013.
Dodds, W. K., Perkin, J. S., and Gerken, J. E.: Human impact on freshwater
ecosystem services: a global perspective, Environ. Sci.
Technol., 47, 9061–9068, https://doi.org/10.1021/es4021052, 2013.
Düspohl, M.: A Review of Bayesian Networks as a Participatory Modeling
Approach in Support of Sustainable Environmental Management, Journal of
Sustainable Development, 5, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v5n12p1, 2012.
Esri Inc.: ArcGIS Pro (version 2.58.0),
https://www.esri.com/en-us/arcgis/products/arcgis-pro/overview (last access: 28 July 2022), 2021.
Falconi, S. M. and Palmer, R. N.: An interdisciplinary framework for
participatory modeling design and evaluation – What makes models effective
participatory decision tools?, Water Resour. Res., 53, 1625–1645,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019373, 2017.
Falkenmark, M.: Freshwater as shared between society and ecosystems: from
divided approaches to integrated challenges, Philos. T.
R. Soc. B, 358, 2037–2049,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2003.1386, 2003.
Folke, C.: Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological
systems analyses, Global Environ. Chang., 16, 253–267,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002, 2006.
Folke, C.: Resilience (Republished), Ecol. Soc., 21, 44, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09088-210444, 2016.
Gallaun, H., Dohr, K., Puhm, M., Stumpf, A., and Huge, J.: EU-Hydro – River
Net User Guide 1.3, Copernicus Land Monitoring Service, European Environment
Agency, https://land.copernicus.eu/user-corner/technical-library/eu-hydro_user_guide.pdf (last access: 30 April 2021), 2019.
Glendell, M., Gagkas, Z., Stutter, M., Richards, S., Lilly, A., Vinten, A., and
Coull, M.: A systems approach to modelling phosphorus pollution risk in
Scottish rivers using a spatial Bayesian Belief Network helps targeting
effective mitigation measures, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 1825,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.976933 2022.
Gray, S., Voinov, A., Paolisso, M., Jordan, R., Bendor, T., Bommel, P.,
Glynn, P., Hedelin, B., Hubacek, K., Introne, J., Kolagani, N., Laursen, B.,
Prell, C., Schmitt Olabisi, L., Singer, A., Sterling, E., and Zellner, M.:
Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance
participatory socio-environmental modeling, Ecol. Appl., 28,
46–61, https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1627, 2018.
Hamby, D. M.:. A comparison of sensitivity analysis techniques, Health
Phys., 68, 195–204, 1995.
Hare, M.: Forms of Participatory Modelling and its Potential for Widespread
Adoption in the Water Sector, Environ. Policy Gov., 21,
386–402, https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.590, 2011.
Harrison, P. A., Dunford, R. W., Holman, I. P., and Rounsevell, M. D. A.:
Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral
interactions, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 885–890,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3039, 2016.
Heathwaite, A. L.: Multiple stressors on water availability at global to
catchment scales: understanding human impact on nutrient cycles to protect
water quality and water availability in the long term, Freshwater Biol.,
55, 241–257, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2009.02368.x, 2010.
Hobbs, B. F.: Bayesian Methods for Analysing Climate Change and Water
Resource Uncertainties, J. Environ. Manage., 49, 53–72,
https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.1996.0116, 1997.
Holling, C. S.: Resilience and stability of ecological systems, Annu.
Rev. Ecol. Syst., 4, 1–23, 1973.
Holman, I. P., Harrison, P. A., and Metzger, M. J.: Cross-sectoral impacts of
climate and socio-economic change in Scotland: implications for adaptation
policy, Reg. Environ. Change, 16, 97–109,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0679-8, 2016.
Jakeman, A. J., Letcher, R. A., and Norton, J. P.: Ten iterative steps in
development and evaluation of environmental models, Environ. Modell.
Softw., 21, 602–614, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.01.004,
2006.
Kaikkonen, L., Parviainen, T., Rahikainen, M., Uusitalo, L., and Lehikoinen,
A.: Bayesian networks in environmental risk assessment: A review, Integr.
Environ. Asses., 17, 62–78,
https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4332, 2021.
Landis, W. G.: The origin, development, application, lessons learned, and
future regarding the Bayesian network relative risk model for ecological
risk assessment, Integr.
Environ. Asses., 17,
79–94, https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4351, 2021.
Liu, Y., Gupta, H., Springer, E., and Wagener, T.: Linking science with
environmental decision making: Experiences from an integrated modeling
approach to supporting sustainable water resources management, Environ.
Modell. Softw., 23, 846–858,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.10.007, 2008.
Lowe, J. A., Bernie, D., Bett, P., Bricheno, L., Brown, S., Calvert,
D., Clark, R., Eagle, K., Edwards, T., Fosser, G, Fung, F., Gohrar, L., Good, P., Gregory, J., Harris, G., Howard, T., Kaye, N., Kendon, E., Krijnen, J., Maisey, P., McDonald, R., McInnes, R., McSweeney, C., Mitchell, J. F. B., Murphy, J., Palmer, M., Roberts, C., Roston, J., Sexton, D., Thornton, H., Tinker, J., Tucker, S., Yamazaki, K., and Belcher, S.: UKCP18 Science Overview Report, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/ukcp18/science-reports/UKCP18-Overview-report.pdf (last access: 18 October 2022), 2018.
Macgregor, C. J. and Warren, C. R.: Evaluating the impacts of nitrate
vulnerable zones on the environment and farmers' practices: a Scottish case
study, Scot. Geogr. J., 132, 1–20,
https://doi.org/10.1080/14702541.2015.1034760, 2016.
Marcot, B. G. and Penman, T. D.: Advances in Bayesian network modelling:
Integration of modelling technologies, Environ. Model.
Softw., 111, 386–393, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.09.016, 2019.
Marcot, B. G., Steventon, J. D., Sutherland, G. D., and McCann, R. K.: Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks
applied to ecological modeling and conservation, Can. J. Forest. Res., 36, 3063–3074,
https://doi.org/10.1139/x06-135, 2006.
Mayfield, H. J., Bertone, E., Smith, C., and Sahin, O.: Use of a structure
aware discretisation algorithm for Bayesian networks applied to water
quality predictions, Math. Comput. Simul., 175, 192–201,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2019.07.005, 2020.
Moe, S. J., Couture, R.-M., Haande, S., Lyche Solheim, A., and
Jackson-Blake, L.: Predicting Lake Quality for the Next Generation: Impacts
of Catchment Management and Climatic Factors in a Probabilistic Model
Framework, Water, 11, 1767, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091767, 2019.
Moe, S. J., Carriger, J. F., and Glendell, M.: Increased Use of Bayesian
Network Models Has Improved Environmental Risk Assessments, Integr.
Environ. Asses., 17, 53–61,
https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4369, 2021.
Molina, J.-L., Pulido-Velázquez, D., García-Aróstegui, J. L.,
and Pulido-Velázquez, M.: Dynamic Bayesian networks as a decision
support tool for assessing climate change impacts on highly stressed
groundwater systems, J. Hydrol., 479, 113–129,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.038, 2013.
Morton, R. D., Marston, C. G., O'Neil, A. W., and Rowland, C. S.: Land Cover
Map 2019 (land parcels, GB), NERC Environmental Information Data Centre [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5285/44c23778-4a73-4a8f-875f-89b23b91ecf8, 2020.
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K.,
Rothman, D. S., Van Ruijven, B. J., Van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok,
K., Levy, M., and Solecki, W.: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared
socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century, Global
Environ. Chang., 42, 169–180,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004, 2017.
Pahl-Wostl, C.: Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing
climate and global change, Water Resour. Manag., 21, 49–62,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9040-4, 2007.
Pahl-Wostl, C., Jeffrey, P., Isendahl, N. and Brugnach, M.: Maturing the New
Water Management Paradigm: Progressing from Aspiration to Practice, Water
Resour. Manag., 25, 837–856,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9729-2, 2011.
Pearl, J.: Fusion, propagation, and structuring in belief networks,
Artif. Intell., 29, 241–288,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0004-3702(86)90072-X, 1986.
Pedde, S., Harrison, P. A., Holman, I. P., Powney, G. D., Lofts, S.,
Schmucki, R., Gramberger, M., and Bullock, J. M.: Enriching the Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for
the UK, Sci. Total Environ., 756, 143172,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143172, 2021.
Plummer, R. and Baird, J.: The emergence of water resilience: An
introduction, Water Resilience, Springer,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48110-0_1, 2021.
Pham, H. V., Sperotto, A., Furlan, E., Torresan, S., Marcomini, A., and
Critto, A.: Integrating Bayesian Networks into ecosystem services assessment
to support water management at the river basin scale, Ecosyst. Serv.,
50, 101300, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2021.101300, 2021.
Phan, T. D., Smart, J. C. R., Capon, S. J., Hadwen, W. L., and Sahin, O.:
Applications of Bayesian belief networks in water resource management: A
systematic review, Environ. Modell. Softw., 85, 98–111,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.006, 2016.
Phan, T. D., James, C. R. S., Ben, S.-K., Oz, S., Wade, L. H., Lien, T. D., Iman, T., and Samantha, J. C.: Applications of Bayesian networks as decision support tools for water resource management under climate change and socio-economic stressors: a critical appraisal, Water, 11, 2642, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122642, 2019.
Pollino, C. A. and Henderson, C.: Bayesian networks: A guide for their
application in natural resource management and policy, Landscape Logic,
Technical Report, 14, Please include the following link: https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/588474/TR_14_BNs_a_resource_guide.pdf (last access: 22 September 2022), 2010.
Renaud, F. G., Birkmann, J., Damm, M., and Gallopín, G. C.:
Understanding multiple thresholds of coupled social–ecological systems
exposed to natural hazards as external shocks, Nat. Hazards, 55, 749–763,
2010.
Rodina, L.: Defining “water resilience”: Debates, concepts, approaches,
and gaps, WIREs Water, 6, e1334, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1334, 2019.
Rounsevell, M. D. A., and Metzger, M. J.: Developing qualitative scenario
storylines for environmental change assessment, WIREs Climate Change, 1,
606–619, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.63, 2010.
SEPA: Sustainable Growth Agreement Scottish Water and Scottish Environment
Protection Agency Progress Update February,
https://www.sepa.org.uk/media/496202/scottish-water-sga-update.pdf (last access: 24 March 2023),
2020.
Sperotto, A., Molina, J.-L., Torresan, S., Critto, A., and Marcomini, A.:
Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment
and management: A multi-risk perspective, J. Environ.
Manage., 202, 320–331, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.07.044,
2017.
Tang, C., Yi, Y., Yang, Z., and Sun, J.: Risk analysis of emergent water
pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network, J. Environ.
Manage., 165, 199–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.09.024,
2016.
Environmental Change Network: The ECN Data Centre – Site Information: Eden (Fife),
http://data.ecn.ac.uk/sites/ecnsites.asp?site=R17 (last access: 6 September 2021), 2021.
Troldborg, M., Gagkas, Z., Vinten, A., Lilly, A., and Glendell, M.: Probabilistic modelling of the inherent field-level pesticide pollution risk in a small drinking water catchment using spatial Bayesian belief networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, 2022.
United Nations, U. W.: Wastewater Management – UN-Water Analytical Brief
Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorogical Organisation, https://www.unwater.org/publications/wastewater-management-un-water-analytical-brief (last access: 20 August 2021), 2015.
Uusitalo, L.: Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in
environmental modelling, Ecol. Model., 203, 312–318,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.033, 2007.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B. C., Ebi, K. L., Riahi, K.,
Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., and Mathur, R.: A new
scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix
architecture, Climatic Change, 122, 373–386, 2014.
Vörösmarty, C. J., McIntyre, P. B., Gessner, M. O., Dudgeon, D.,
Prusevich, A., Green, P., Glidden, S., Bunn, S. E., Sullivan, C. A.,
Liermann, C. R., and Davies, P. M: Global threats to human water security and
river biodiversity, Nature, 467, 555–561,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1, 2010.
Voinov, A. and Bousquet, F.: Modelling with stakeholders, Environ.
Modell. Softw., 25, 1268–1281,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.007, 2010.
Wada, Y., Flörke, M., Hanasaki, N., Eisner, S., Fischer, G., Tramberend, S., Satoh, Y., van Vliet, M. T. H., Yillia, P., Ringler, C., Burek, P., and Wiberg, D.: Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 175–222, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-175-2016, 2016.
Wade, M., O'Brien, G. C., Wepener, V., and Jewitt, G.: Risk Assessment of
Water Quantity and Quality Stressors to Balance the Use and Protection of
Vulnerable Water Resources, Integr. Environ. Asses., 17, 110–130, https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4356, 2021.
Walker, B., Carpenter, S., Anderies, J., Abel, N., Cumming, G., Janssen, M.,
Lebel, L., Norberg, J., Peterson, G. D., and Pritchard, R.: Resilience
Management in Social-ecological Systems a Working Hypothesis for a
Participatory Approach, Conserv. Ecol., 6, 1,
http://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss1/art14/ (last access: 3 August 2021), 2002.
Wöhler, L., Niebaum, G., Krol, M., and Hoekstra, A.Y.: The grey water
footprint of human and veterinary pharmaceuticals, Water Res. X, 7, 100044, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wroa.2020.100044, 2020.
Xue, J., Gui, D., Lei, J., Sun, H., Zeng, F., and Feng, X.: A hybrid
Bayesian network approach for trade-offs between environmental flows and
agricultural water using dynamic discretization, Adv. Water
Resour., 110, 445–458, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.10.022,
2017.
Yüksel, I.: Developing a multi-criteria decision making model for PESTEL
analysis, International Journal of Business and Management, 7, 52,
https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v7n24p52, 2012.
Short summary
We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model...
