Articles | Volume 26, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6399-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6399-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Dec 2022
Research article |
| 20 Dec 2022
| 20 Dec 2022
Significant regime shifts in historical water yield in the Upper Brahmaputra River basin
Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Baoying Shan
Research Unit Knowledge-based Systems, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Akash Koppa
Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Feng Zhong
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Dongfeng Li
Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
Xuanxuan Wang
Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
Wenfeng Liu
Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
Xiuping Li
Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Zongxue Xu
College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Yunfan Zhang, Lei Cheng, Lu Zhang, Shujing Qin, Liu Liu, Pan Liu, and Yanghe Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6379–6397, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6379-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6379-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Multiyear drought has been demonstrated to cause non-stationary rainfall–runoff relationship. But whether changes can invalidate the most fundamental method (i.e., paired-catchment method (PCM)) for separating vegetation change impacts is still unknown. Using paired-catchment data with 10-year drought, PCM is shown to still be reliable even in catchments with non-stationarity. A new framework is further proposed to separate impacts of two non-stationary drivers, using paired-catchment data.
Feng Zhong, Shanhu Jiang, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Liliang Ren, Jaap Schellekens, and Diego G. Miralles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5647–5667, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5647-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A synthesis of rainfall interception data from past field campaigns is performed, including 166 forests and 17 agricultural plots distributed worldwide. These site data are used to constrain and validate an interception model that considers sub-grid heterogeneity and vegetation dynamics. A global, 40-year (1980–2019) interception dataset is generated at a daily temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution. This dataset will serve as a benchmark for future investigations of the global hydrological cycle.
Chenhao Chai, Lei Wang, Deliang Chen, Jing Zhou, Hu Liu, Jingtian Zhang, Yuanwei Wang, Tao Chen, and Ruishun Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4657–4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4657-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work quantifies future snow changes and their impacts on hydrology in the upper Salween River (USR) under SSP126 and SSP585 using a cryosphere–hydrology model. Future warm–wet climate is not conducive to the development of snow. The rain–snow-dominated pattern of runoff will shift to a rain-dominated pattern after the 2040s under SSP585 but is unchanged under SSP126. The findings improve our understanding of cryosphere–hydrology processes and can assist water resource management in the USR.
Adam Emmer, Simon K. Allen, Mark Carey, Holger Frey, Christian Huggel, Oliver Korup, Martin Mergili, Ashim Sattar, Georg Veh, Thomas Y. Chen, Simon J. Cook, Mariana Correas-Gonzalez, Soumik Das, Alejandro Diaz Moreno, Fabian Drenkhan, Melanie Fischer, Walter W. Immerzeel, Eñaut Izagirre, Ramesh Chandra Joshi, Ioannis Kougkoulos, Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp, Dongfeng Li, Ulfat Majeed, Stephanie Matti, Holly Moulton, Faezeh Nick, Valentine Piroton, Irfan Rashid, Masoom Reza, Anderson Ribeiro de Figueiredo, Christian Riveros, Finu Shrestha, Milan Shrestha, Jakob Steiner, Noah Walker-Crawford, Joanne L. Wood, and Jacob C. Yde
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3041–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.
Bruno Ringeval, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, Philippe Debaeke, and Sylvain Pellerin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1639–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how and why global gridded crop models (GGCMs) differ in their simulation of potential yield. We build a GCCM emulator based on generic formalism and fit its parameters against aboveground biomass and yield at harvest simulated by eight GGCMs. Despite huge differences between GGCMs, we show that the calibration of a few key parameters allows the emulator to reproduce the GGCM simulations. Our simple but mechanistic model could help to improve the global simulation of potential yield.
Yunfan Zhang, Lei Cheng, Lu Zhang, Shujing Qin, Liu Liu, Pan Liu, Yanghe Liu, and Jun Xia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-5, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-5, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We use statistical methods and data assimilation method with physical model to verify that prolonged drought can induce non-stationarity in the control catchment rainfall-runoff relationship, which causes three inconsistent results at the Red Hill paired-catchment site. The findings are fundamental to correctly use long-term historical data and effectively assess ecohydrological impacts of vegetation change given that extreme climate events are projected to occur more frequently in the future.
Xiaowan Liu, Zongxue Xu, Hong Yang, Xiuping Li, and Dingzhi Peng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-71, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-71, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The retreat of glaciers over the QTP is intensifying. To understand changes in glaciers, the two inventories (RGI 4.0 and GIC-Ⅱ) provide potential, but glacier volumes are not convincing. The study recalculated and compared glacier volumes in RGI 4.0 and GIC-Ⅱ for the QTP. The results indicate the slope-dependent algorithm performs better than area-volume-based equations. The northern QTP has a larger degree of fragmentation. An obvious offset of glacier volumes in different aspects is observed.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Abigail Snyder, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Karina Williams, Ziwei Wang, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3995–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop yields will be critical for global food security in the next century. The models often used to study the how climate change may impact agriculture are complex and costly to run. In this work, we describe a set of global crop model emulators (simplified models) developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. Crop model emulators make agricultural simulations more accessible to policy or decision makers.
Yuanwei Wang, Lei Wang, Xiuping Li, Jing Zhou, and Zhidan Hu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1789–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1789-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article is to provide a better precipitation product for the largest river basin of the Tibetan Plateau, the upper Brahmaputra River basin, suitable for use in hydrological simulations and other climate change studies. We integrate gauge, satellite, and reanalysis precipitation datasets to generate a new dataset. The new product has been rigorously validated at various temporal and spatial scales with gauge precipitation observations as well as in cryosphere hydrological simulations.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, Munir Hoffmann, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Marian Koch, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Xuhui Wang, Karina Williams, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2315–2336, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Crop models, which represent plant biology, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate, farmer choices, and new agricultural geographies. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to evaluate and improve crop models.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexander Popp, Almut Arneth, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Jonathan Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Anna B. Harper, Taejin Park, David Makowski, Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner, Jingmeng Wang, Andreas Krause, and Wenfeng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 789–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We generated spatially explicit bioenergy crop yields based on field measurements with climate, soil condition and remote-sensing variables as explanatory variables and the machine-learning method. We further compared our yield maps with the maps from three integrated assessment models (IAMs; IMAGE, MAgPIE and GLOBIOM) and found that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps.
Xingcai Liu, Wenfeng Liu, Hong Yang, Qiuhong Tang, Martina Flörke, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1245–1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Human activities associated with water resource management have significantly increased in China during the past decades. This assessment helps us understand how streamflow has been affected by climate and human activities in China. Our analyses indicate that the climate impact has dominated streamflow changes in most areas, and human activities (in terms of water withdrawals) have increasingly decreased streamflow in the northern basins of China which are vulnerable to future climate change.
Qi Chu, Zongxue Xu, Yiheng Chen, and Dawei Han
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3391–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3391-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3391-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The effects of WRF domain configurations and spin-up time on rainfall were evaluated at high temporal and spatial scales for simulating an extreme sub-daily heavy rainfall (SDHR) event. Both objective verification metrics and subjective verification were used to identify the likely best set of the configurations. Results show that re-evaluation of these WRF settings is of great importance in improving the accuracy and reliability of the rainfall simulations in the regional SDHR applications.
Liu Liu, Zezhong Guo, and Guanhua Huang
Proc. IAHS, 379, 393–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-393-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-393-2018, 2018
Xiaoxi Gao, Depeng Zuo, Zongxue Xu, Siyang Cai, and Han Xianming
Proc. IAHS, 379, 159–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-159-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-159-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The blue and green water resources in the upper Yellow River basin (UYRB) were evaluated by the SWAT model in this study. The results show that the average annual total amount of water resources in the UYRB was 140.5 billion m3, in which the blue water resources is 37.8 billion m3, and green water resources is 107.7 billion m3. The intra-annual variability, inter-annual variabilityand spatial distribution of the blue water and green water is relatively similar.
Xianming Han, Depeng Zuo, Zongxue Xu, Siyang Cai, and Xiaoxi Gao
Proc. IAHS, 379, 105–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-105-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-105-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
To further protect the ecology of the study area, remote sensing image technology is used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of vegetation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin by splicing the remote sensing image of a time series (from February 2000 to December 2016). It can be found that vegetation coverage is better in low elevation areas,vegetation change shows a weak sustainability and the vegetation growth is more affected by the temperature than the precipitation.
Siyang Cai, Depeng Zuo, Zongxue Xu, Xianming Han, and Xiaoxi Gao
Proc. IAHS, 379, 73–82, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-73-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-73-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a natural and recurring feature of climate; occurring in virtually all climatic regimes. Wei River is of great importance in social and economic in China. The temporal and spatial variations of drought in the Wei River basin were investigated by calculating the drought indexes. Through analysis of the historical precipitation and temperature data, it was found that precipitation had a greater contribution to creating agricultural drought conditions than temperature.
Zongxue Xu, Dingzhi Peng, Wenchao Sun, Bo Pang, Depeng Zuo, Andreas Schumann, and Yangbo Chen
Proc. IAHS, 379, 463–464, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-463-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-379-463-2018, 2018
Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, Steven Hoek, Toshichika Iizumi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Deepak K. Ray, Ashwan Reddy, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Gen Sakurai, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalsky, Carol X. Song, Xuhui Wang, Allard de Wit, and Hong Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1403–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Crop models are increasingly used in climate change impact research and integrated assessments. For the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have supplied crop yield simulations (1980–2010) for maize, wheat, rice and soybean. We evaluate the performance of these models against observational data at global, national and grid cell level. We propose an open-access benchmark system against which future model versions can be tested.
Wenchao Sun, Yuanyuan Wang, Guoqiang Wang, Xingqi Cui, Jingshan Yu, Depeng Zuo, and Zongxue Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 251–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-251-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-251-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The possibility of using a short period of streamflow data (less than one year) to calibrate a physically based distributed hydrological model is evaluated. Contrary to the common understanding of using data of several years, it is shown that only using data covering several months could calibrate the model effectively, which indicates that this approach is valuable for solving the calibration problem of such models in data-sparse basins.
Christian Folberth, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Juraj Balkovic, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Wenfeng Liu, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalský, Hong Yang, Almut Arneth, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Peter J. Lawrence, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Alex C. Ruane, and Xuhui Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Global crop models differ in numerous aspects such as algorithms, parameterization, input data, and management assumptions. This study compares five global crop model frameworks, all based on the same field-scale model, to identify differences induced by the latter three. Results indicate that foremost nutrient supply, soil handling, and crop management induce substantial differences in crop yield estimates whereas crop cultivars primarily result in scaling of yield levels.
Zongxue Xu and Gang Zhao
Proc. IAHS, 373, 7–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-7-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-7-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
China is undergoing rapid urbanization during the past decades. For example, the proportion of urban population in Beijing has increased from 57.6 % in 1980 to 86.3 % in 2013. Rapid urbanization has an adverse impact on the urban rainfall-runoff processes, which may result in the increase of urban flooding risk. In this study, the major purpose is to investigate the impact of land use/cover changes on hydrological processes and the flooding risk in Beijing.
Z. X. Xu and Q. Chu
Proc. IAHS, 369, 97–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-97-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-97-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Three hourly assimilated precipitation series with 0.1 deg. are used to analyze the features and trends of extreme precipitation in Beijing, China. The results show that: (1) the local climate and topography are two main factors influencing the spatial distributions of precipitation; (2) areas with greater precipitation threshold may have shorter precipitation days; (3) extreme precipitation amount (48% of precipitation) concentrated on urban areas and mountain area within only 5 to 7 days.
Z. X. Xu, X. J. Yang, D. P. Zuo, Q. Chu, and W. F. Liu
Proc. IAHS, 369, 121–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-121-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-121-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation and temperature in Yunnan Province, China, were analyzed by using observed daily data at 28 meteorological stations from 1959-2013 in this study.Both maximum and minimum temperature showed significant increasing tendency while there was not obvious changes for precipitation.It was noted that extreme precipitation and temperature events occurred more frequently in central region where the risk of extreme climatic events was greater.
M. Shrestha, L. Wang, T. Koike, H. Tsutsui, Y. Xue, and Y. Hirabayashi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 747–761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-747-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-747-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Stochastic approaches
Monthly new water fractions and their relationships with climate and catchment properties across Alpine rivers
Technical note: Two-component electrical-conductivity-based hydrograph separation employing an exponential mixing model (EXPECT) provides reliable high-temporal-resolution young water fraction estimates in three small Swiss catchments
Flood frequency analysis using mean daily flows vs. instantaneous peak flows
On the regional-scale variability in flow duration curves in Peninsular India
Towards a conceptualization of the hydrological processes behind changes of young water fraction with elevation: a focus on mountainous alpine catchments
A mixed distribution approach for low-flow frequency analysis – Part 2: Comparative assessment of a mixed probability vs. copula-based dependence framework
A mixed distribution approach for low-flow frequency analysis – Part 1: Concept, performance, and effect of seasonality
A geostatistical spatially varying coefficient model for mean annual runoff that incorporates process-based simulations and short records
Low-flow estimation beyond the mean – expectile loss and extreme gradient boosting for spatiotemporal low-flow prediction in Austria
Impact of bias nonstationarity on the performance of uni- and multivariate bias-adjusting methods: a case study on data from Uccle, Belgium
A space–time Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for projection of seasonal maximum streamflow
Parsimonious statistical learning models for low-flow estimation
Development of a Wilks feature importance method with improved variable rankings for supporting hydrological inference and modelling
Technical Note: Improved partial wavelet coherency for understanding scale-specific and localized bivariate relationships in geosciences
Effects of climate anomalies on warm-season low flows in Switzerland
Histogram via entropy reduction (HER): an information-theoretic alternative for geostatistics
Estimation of annual runoff by exploiting long-term spatial patterns and short records within a geostatistical framework
A methodology to estimate flow duration curves at partially ungauged basins
The role of flood wave superposition in the severity of large floods
Contribution of low-frequency climatic–oceanic oscillations to streamflow variability in small, coastal rivers of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (Colombia)
Stochastic reconstruction of spatio-temporal rainfall patterns by inverse hydrologic modelling
An assessment of trends and potential future changes in groundwater-baseflow drought based on catchment response times
More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in the Pearl River basin, China, since 1951 and over the past 1000 years
Topography significantly influencing low flows in snow-dominated watersheds
A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data
Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China
Estimating unconsolidated sediment cover thickness by using the horizontal distance to a bedrock outcrop as secondary information
On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States
The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective
Heterogeneity measures in hydrological frequency analysis: review and new developments
ENSO-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction
Ordinary kriging as a tool to estimate historical daily streamflow records
Trends in floods in West Africa: analysis based on 11 catchments in the region
Implementation and validation of a Wilks-type multi-site daily precipitation generator over a typical Alpine river catchment
Spatial controls on groundwater response dynamics in a snowmelt-dominated montane catchment
Is bias correction of regional climate model (RCM) simulations possible for non-stationary conditions?
Data compression to define information content of hydrological time series
Topological and canonical kriging for design flood prediction in ungauged catchments: an improvement over a traditional regional regression approach?
Regionalised spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature models for flood studies in the Basque Country, Spain
Exploring the physical controls of regional patterns of flow duration curves – Part 1: Insights from statistical analyses
Land cover and water yield: inference problems when comparing catchments with mixed land cover
An elusive search for regional flood frequency estimates in the River Nile basin
Interannual hydroclimatic variability and its influence on winter nutrient loadings over the Southeast United States
Variational assimilation of streamflow into operational distributed hydrologic models: effect of spatiotemporal scale of adjustment
Contrasting trends in floods for two sub-arctic catchments in northern Sweden – does glacier presence matter?
Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow
Applying sequential Monte Carlo methods into a distributed hydrologic model: lagged particle filtering approach with regularization
Low-frequency variability of European runoff
Comparison of catchment grouping methods for flow duration curve estimation at ungauged sites in France
Regional flow duration curves for ungauged sites in Sicily
Marius G. Floriancic, Michael P. Stockinger, James W. Kirchner, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3675–3694, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3675-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3675-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Alps are a key water resource for central Europe, providing water for drinking, agriculture, and hydropower production. To assess water availability in streams, we need to understand how much streamflow is derived from old water stored in the subsurface versus more recent precipitation. We use tracer data from 32 Alpine streams and statistical tools to assess how much recent precipitation can be found in Alpine rivers and how this amount is related to catchment properties and climate.
Alessio Gentile, Jana von Freyberg, Davide Gisolo, Davide Canone, and Stefano Ferraris
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1915–1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1915-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Can we leverage high-resolution and low-cost EC measurements and biweekly δ18O data to estimate the young water fraction at higher temporal resolution? Here, we present the EXPECT method that combines two widespread techniques: EC-based hydrograph separation and sine-wave models of the seasonal isotope cycles. The method is not without its limitations, but its application in three small Swiss catchments is promising for future applications in catchments with different characteristics.
Anne Bartens, Bora Shehu, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1687–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1687-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1687-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
River flow data are often provided as mean daily flows (MDF), in which a lot of information is lost about the actual maximum flow or instantaneous peak flows (IPF) within a day. We investigate the error of using MDF instead of IPF and identify means to predict IPF when only MDF data are available. We find that the average ratio of daily flood peaks and volumes is a good predictor, which is easily and universally applicable and requires a minimum amount of data.
Pankaj Dey, Jeenu Mathai, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Pradeep P. Mujumdar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1493–1514, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1493-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1493-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the regional streamflow variability in Peninsular India. This variability is governed by monsoons, mountainous systems, and geologic gradients. A linkage between these influencing factors and streamflow variability is established using a Wegenerian approach and flow duration curves.
Alessio Gentile, Davide Canone, Natalie Ceperley, Davide Gisolo, Maurizio Previati, Giulia Zuecco, Bettina Schaefli, and Stefano Ferraris
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2301–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
What drives young water fraction, F*yw (i.e., the fraction of water in streamflow younger than 2–3 months), variations with elevation? Why is F*yw counterintuitively low in high-elevation catchments, in spite of steeper topography? In this paper, we present a perceptual model explaining how the longer low-flow duration at high elevations, driven by the persistence of winter snowpacks, increases the proportion of stored (old) water contributing to the stream, thus reducing F*yw.
Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2019–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2019-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2019-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In seasonal climates with a warm and a cold season, low flows are generated by different processes so that return periods used as a measure of event severity will be inaccurate. We propose a novel mixed copula estimator that is shown to outperform previous calculation methods. The new method is highly relevant for a wide range of European river flow regimes and should be used by default.
Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 689–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-689-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-689-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the severity of an extreme event is of particular importance to hydrology and water policies. In this paper we propose a mixed distribution approach for low flows. It provides one consistent approach to quantify the severity of summer, winter, and annual low flows based on their respective annualities (or return periods). We show that the new method is much more accurate than existing methods and should therefore be used by engineers and water agencies.
Thea Roksvåg, Ingelin Steinsland, and Kolbjørn Engeland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5391–5410, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5391-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5391-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this work was to make a map of the mean annual runoff for Norway for a 30-year period. We first simulated runoff by using a process-based model that models the relationship between runoff, precipitation, temperature, and land use. Next, we corrected the map based on runoff observations from streams by using a statistical method. We were also able to use data from rivers that only had a few annual observations. We find that the statistical correction improves the runoff estimates.
Johannes Laimighofer, Michael Melcher, and Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4553–4574, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study uses a statistical boosting model for estimating low flows on a monthly basis, which can be applied to estimate low flows at sites without measurements. We use an extensive dataset of 260 stream gauges in Austria for model development. As we are specifically interested in low-flow events, our method gives specific weight to such events. We found that our method can considerably improve the predictions of low-flow events and yields accurate estimates of the seasonal low-flow variation.
Jorn Van de Velde, Matthias Demuzere, Bernard De Baets, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2319–2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2319-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2319-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An important step in projecting future climate is the bias adjustment of the climatological and hydrological variables. In this paper, we illustrate how bias adjustment can be impaired by bias nonstationarity. Two univariate and four multivariate methods are compared, and for both types bias nonstationarity can be linked with less robust adjustment.
Álvaro Ossandón, Manuela I. Brunner, Balaji Rajagopalan, and William Kleiber
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 149–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-149-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-149-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Timely projections of seasonal streamflow extremes on a river network can be useful for flood risk mitigation, but this is challenging, particularly under space–time nonstationarity. We develop a space–time Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) using temporal climate covariates and copulas to project seasonal streamflow extremes and the attendant uncertainties. We demonstrate this on the Upper Colorado River basin to project spring flow extremes using the preceding winter’s climate teleconnections.
Johannes Laimighofer, Michael Melcher, and Gregor Laaha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 129–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-129-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to predict long-term averages of low flow on a hydrologically diverse dataset in Austria. We compared seven statistical learning methods and included a backward variable selection approach. We found that separating the low-flow processes into winter and summer low flows leads to good performance for all the models. Variable selection results in more parsimonious and more interpretable models. Linear approaches for prediction and variable selection are sufficient for our dataset.
Kailong Li, Guohe Huang, and Brian Baetz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4947–4966, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4947-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4947-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a test statistic feature importance method to quantify the importance of predictor variables for random-forest-like models. The proposed method does not rely on any performance measures to evaluate variable rankings, which can thus result in unbiased variable rankings. The resulting variable rankings based on the proposed method could help random forest achieve its optimum predictive accuracy.
Wei Hu and Bing Si
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 321–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-321-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-321-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Partial wavelet coherency method is improved to explore the bivariate relationships at different scales and locations after excluding the effects of other variables. The method was tested with artificial datasets and applied to a measured dataset. Compared with others, this method has the advantages of capturing phase information, dealing with multiple excluding variables, and producing more accurate results. This method can be used in different areas with spatial or temporal datasets.
Marius G. Floriancic, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Tobias Jonas, James W. Kirchner, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5423–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Low river flows affect societies and ecosystems. Here we study how precipitation and potential evapotranspiration shape low flows across a network of 380 Swiss catchments. Low flows in these rivers typically result from below-average precipitation and above-average potential evapotranspiration. Extreme low flows result from long periods of the combined effects of both drivers.
Stephanie Thiesen, Diego M. Vieira, Mirko Mälicke, Ralf Loritz, J. Florian Wellmann, and Uwe Ehret
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4523–4540, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4523-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4523-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A spatial interpolator has been proposed for exploring the information content of the data in the light of geostatistics and information theory. It showed comparable results to traditional interpolators, with the advantage of presenting generalization properties. We discussed three different ways of combining distributions and their implications for the probabilistic results. By its construction, the method provides a suitable and flexible framework for uncertainty analysis and decision-making.
Thea Roksvåg, Ingelin Steinsland, and Kolbjørn Engeland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4109-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4109-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Annual runoff is a measure of how much water flows through a river during a year and is an important quantity, e.g. when planning infrastructure. In this paper, we suggest a new statistical model for annual runoff estimation. The model exploits correlation between rivers and is able to detect whether the annual runoff in the target river follows repeated patterns over time relative to neighbouring rivers. In our work we show for what cases the latter represents a benefit over comparable methods.
Elena Ridolfi, Hemendra Kumar, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2043–2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a new, simple and model-free methodology to estimate the streamflow at partially gauged basins, given the precipitation gauged at another basin. We show that the FDC is not a characteristic of the basin only, but of both the basin and the weather. Because of the dependence on the climate, discharge data at the target site are here retrieved using the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) of the donor site as it represents in a streamflow-like way the precipitation of the basin.
Björn Guse, Bruno Merz, Luzie Wietzke, Sophie Ullrich, Alberto Viglione, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Floods are influenced by river network processes, among others. Flood characteristics of tributaries may affect flood severity downstream of confluences. The impact of flood wave superposition is investigated with regard to magnitude and temporal matching of flood peaks. Our study in Germany and Austria shows that flood wave superposition is not the major driver of flood severity. However, there is the potential for large floods at some confluences in cases of temporal matching of flood peaks.
Juan Camilo Restrepo, Aldemar Higgins, Jaime Escobar, Silvio Ospino, and Natalia Hoyos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2379–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluated the influence of low-frequency oscillations that are linked to large-scale oceanographic–atmospheric processes, on streamflow variability in small mountain rivers of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia, aiming to explore streamflow variability, estimate the net contribution to the energy of low-frequency oscillations to streamflow anomalies, and analyze the linkages between streamflow anomalies and large-scale, low-frequency oceanographic–atmospheric processes.
Jens Grundmann, Sebastian Hörning, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 225–237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-225-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-225-2019, 2019
Jost Hellwig and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6209–6224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6209-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6209-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the lack of long-term observations, insights into changes of groundwater resources are obscured. In this paper we assess past and potential future changes in groundwater drought in headwater catchments using a baseflow approach. There are a few past trends which are highly dependent on the period of analysis. Catchments with short response times are found to have a higher sensitivity to projected seasonal precipitation shifts, urging for a local management based on response times.
Qiang Zhang, Xihui Gu, Vijay P. Singh, Peijun Shi, and Peng Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2637-2018, 2018
Qiang Li, Xiaohua Wei, Xin Yang, Krysta Giles-Hansen, Mingfang Zhang, and Wenfei Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1947–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1947-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Topography plays an important role in determining the spatial heterogeneity of ecological, geomorphological, and hydrological processes. Topography plays a more dominant role in low flows than high flows. Our analysis also identified five significant TIs: perimeter, slope length factor, surface area, openness, and terrain characterization index. These can be used to compare watersheds when low flow assessments are conducted, specifically in snow-dominated regions.
Yan-Fang Sang, Fubao Sun, Vijay P. Singh, Ping Xie, and Jian Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 757–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-757-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-757-2018, 2018
Zhi Li and Jiming Jin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5531–5546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5531-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5531-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an efficient multisite and multivariate GCM downscaling method and generated climate change scenarios for SWAT to evaluate the streamflow variability within a watershed in China. The application of the ensemble techniques enables us to better quantify the model uncertainties. The peak values of precipitation and streamflow have a tendency to shift from the summer to spring season over the next 30 years. The number of extreme flooding and drought events will increase.
Nils-Otto Kitterød
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4195–4211, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4195-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4195-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The GRANADA open-access database (NGU, 2016a) was used to derive point recordings of thickness of sediment above the bedrock D(u). For each D(u) the horizontal distance to nearest outcrop L(u) was derived from geological maps. The purpose was to utilize L(u) as a secondary function for estimation of D(u). Two estimation methods were employed: ordinary kriging (OK) and co-kriging (CK). A cross-validation analysis was performed to evaluate the additional information in the secondary function L(u).
Annalise G. Blum, Stacey A. Archfield, and Richard M. Vogel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3093–3103, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3093-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Flow duration curves are ubiquitous in surface water hydrology for applications including water allocation and protection of ecosystem health. We identify three probability distributions that can provide a reasonable fit to daily streamflows across much of United States. These results help us understand of the behavior of daily streamflows and enhance our ability to predict streamflows at ungaged river locations.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Ana I. Requena, Fateh Chebana, and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1651–1668, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1651-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1651-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The notion of a measure to quantify the degree of heterogeneity of a region from which information is required to estimate the magnitude of events at ungauged sites is introduced. These heterogeneity measures are needed to compare regions, evaluate the impact of particular sites, and rank the performance of delineating methods. A framework to define and assess their desirable properties is proposed. Several heterogeneity measures are presented and/or developed to be assessed, giving guidelines.
Joost V. L. Beckers, Albrecht H. Weerts, Erik Tijdeman, and Edwin Welles
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3277–3287, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic–atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the streamflow regime in many rivers around the world. A new method is presented for ENSO conditioning of the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method, which is often used for seasonal streamflow forecasting. The method was tested on three tributaries of the Columbia River, OR. Results show an improvement in forecast skill compared to the standard ESP.
William H. Farmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2721–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of geostatistical tools, leveraging the spatial structure and dependency of correlated time series, for the prediction of daily streamflow time series at unmonitored locations is explored. Simple geostatistical tools improve on traditional estimates of daily streamflow. The temporal evolution of spatial structure, including seasonal fluctuations, is also explored. The proposed method is contrasted with more advanced geostatistical methods and shown to be comparable.
B. N. Nka, L. Oudin, H. Karambiri, J. E. Paturel, and P. Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4707–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4707-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4707-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The region of West Africa is undergoing important climate and environmental changes affecting the magnitude and occurrence of floods. This study aims to analyze the evolution of flood hazard in the region and to find links between flood hazards pattern and rainfall or vegetation index patterns.
D. E. Keller, A. M. Fischer, C. Frei, M. A. Liniger, C. Appenzeller, and R. Knutti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2163–2177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2163-2015, 2015
R. S. Smith, R. D. Moore, M. Weiler, and G. Jost
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1835–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1835-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1835-2014, 2014
C. Teutschbein and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5061–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5061-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5061-2013, 2013
S. V. Weijs, N. van de Giesen, and M. B. Parlange
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3171–3187, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3171-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3171-2013, 2013
S. A. Archfield, A. Pugliese, A. Castellarin, J. O. Skøien, and J. E. Kiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1575–1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1575-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1575-2013, 2013
P. Cowpertwait, D. Ocio, G. Collazos, O. de Cos, and C. Stocker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 479–494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-479-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-479-2013, 2013
L. Cheng, M. Yaeger, A. Viglione, E. Coopersmith, S. Ye, and M. Sivapalan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4435–4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4435-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4435-2012, 2012
A. I. J. M. van Dijk, J. L. Peña-Arancibia, and L. A. (Sampurno) Bruijnzeel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3461–3473, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3461-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3461-2012, 2012
P. Nyeko-Ogiramoi, P. Willems, F. M. Mutua, and S. A. Moges
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3149–3163, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3149-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3149-2012, 2012
J. Oh and A. Sankarasubramanian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2285–2298, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2285-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2285-2012, 2012
H. Lee, D.-J. Seo, Y. Liu, V. Koren, P. McKee, and R. Corby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2233–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2233-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2233-2012, 2012
H. E. Dahlke, S. W. Lyon, J. R. Stedinger, G. Rosqvist, and P. Jansson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2123–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2123-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2123-2012, 2012
F. F. van Ogtrop, R. W. Vervoort, G. Z. Heller, D. M. Stasinopoulos, and R. A. Rigby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3343–3354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3343-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3343-2011, 2011
S. J. Noh, Y. Tachikawa, M. Shiiba, and S. Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3237-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3237-2011, 2011
L. Gudmundsson, L. M. Tallaksen, K. Stahl, and A. K. Fleig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2853–2869, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2853-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2853-2011, 2011
E. Sauquet and C. Catalogne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2421–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2421-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2421-2011, 2011
F. Viola, L. V. Noto, M. Cannarozzo, and G. La Loggia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 323–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-323-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-323-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Biemans, H., Siderius, C., Lutz, A. F., Nepal, S., Ahmad, B., Hassan, T., von Bloh, W., Wijngaard, R. R., Wester, P., Shrestha, A. B., and Immerzeel, W. W.: Importance of snow and glacier meltwater for agriculture on the Indo-Gangetic Plain, Nat. Sustain., 2, 594–601, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0305-3, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Bonan, G. B.: Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests, Science, 320, 1444–1449, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155121, 2008. a
Bonferroni, C. E.: Il calcolo delle assicurazioni su gruppi di teste, in: Studi in onore del professore salvatore ortu carboni, Rome, Italy, 13–60, 1935. a
Brahney, J., Menounos, B., Wei, X., and Curtis, P. J.: Determining annual
cryosphere storage contributions to streamflow using historical hydrometric
records, Hydrol. Process., 31, 1590–1601, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11128, 2017. a
Chinese Academy of Sciences Resource and Environmental Science Data Center: Landuse dataset in China (1980–2015), http://www.resdc.cn/ (last access: 19 December 2022), 2019. a
Cuo, L., Li, N., Liu, Z., Ding, J., Liang, L., Zhang, Y., and Gong, T.: Warming and human activities induced changes in the Yarlung Tsangpo basin of the Tibetan plateau and their influences on streamflow, J. Hydrol.: Reg. Stud., 25, 100625, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100625, 2019. a
Dierauer, J. R., Whitfield, P. H., and Allen, D. M.: Climate controls on runoff and low flows in mountain catchments of Western North America, Water
Resour. Res., 54, 7495–7510, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023087, 2018. a
Fan, H. and He, D.: Temperature and precipitation variability and its effects
on streamflow in the upstream regions of the Lancang–Mekong and Nu–Salween
Rivers, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 2248–2263, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0238.1, 2015. a
Fang, H., Baret, F., Plummer, S., and Schaepman-Strub, G.: An overview of
global leaf area index (LAI): Methods, products, validation, and applications, Rev. Geophys., 57, 739–799, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000608, 2019. a
Forzieri, G., Miralles, D. G., Ciais, P., Alkama, R., Ryu, Y., Duveiller, G., Zhang, K., Robertson, E., Kautz, M., Martens, B., Jiang, C., Arneth, A., Georgievski, G., Li, W., Ceccherini, G., Anthoni, P., Lawrence, P., Wiltshire, A., Pongratz, J., Piao, S., Sitch, S., Goll, D. S., Arora, V. K., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Kato, E., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Tian, H., Friedlingstein, P., and Cescatti, A.: Increased control of vegetation on global terrestrial energy fluxes, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 356–362, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0717-0, 2020. a, b, c
Gao, P., Mu, X.-M., Wang, F., and Li, R.: Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1-2011, 2011. a
Gao, Y., Chen, F., Lettenmaier, D. P., Xu, J., Xiao, L., and Li, X.: Does
elevation-dependent warming hold true above 5000 m elevation? Lessons from
the Tibetan Plateau, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0030-z, 2018. a
Gleick, P. H. and Palaniappan, M.: Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal
and use, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 11155–11162, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1004812107, 2010. a
Gonsamo, A., Ciais, P., Miralles, D. G., Sitch, S., Dorigo, W., Lombardozzi, D., Friedlingstein, P., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Goll, D. S., O'Sullivan, M., Arneth, A., Anthoni, P., Jain, A. K., Wiltshire, A., Peylin, P., and Cescatti, A.: Greening drylands despite warming consistent with carbon dioxide fertilization effect, Global Change Biol., 27, 3336–3349, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15658, 2021.. a, b
Goulden, M. L. and Bales, R. C.: Mountain runoff vulnerability to increased
evapotranspiration with vegetation expansion, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 14071–14075, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1319316111, 2014. a
Hallema, D. W., Sun, G., Caldwell, P. V., Norman, S. P., Cohen, E. C., Liu, Y., Bladon, K. D., and McNulty, S. G.: Burned forests impact water supplies,
Nat. Commun., 9, 1307, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03735-6, 2018. a
He, J., Yang, K., Tang, W., Lu, H., Qin, J., Chen, Y., and Li, X.: The first
high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset for land process studies over
China, Scient. Data, 7, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.11888/AtmosphericPhysics.tpe.249369.file, 2020. a, b
Hu, Z., Piao, S., Knapp, A. K., Wang, X., Peng, S., Yuan, W., Running, S., Mao, J., Shi, X., Ciais, P., Huntzinger, D. N., Yang, J., and Yu, G.: Decoupling of greenness and gross primary productivity as aridity decreases, Remote Sens. Environ., 279, 113120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2022.113120, 2022. a
Huss, M. and Hock, R.: Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier
mass loss, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 135–140, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x, 2018. a, b, c
Immerzeel, W. W., Van Beek, L. P., and Bierkens, M. F.: Climate change will
affect the Asian water towers, Science, 328, 1382–1385, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188, 2010. a
Immerzeel, W. W., Pellicciotti, F., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds, Nature Geosci., 6, 742–745, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1896, 2013. a
Kang, S., Xu, Y., You, Q., Flügel, W.-A., Pepin, N., and Yao, T.: Review of climate and cryospheric change in the Tibetan Plateau, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 015101, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/015101, 2010. a
Kendall, M. G.: A new measure of rank correlation, Biometrika, 30, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/30.1-2.81, 1938. a
Krich, C., Mahecha, M. D., Migliavacca, M., De Kauwe, M. G., Griebel, A., Runge, J., and Miralles, D. G.: Decoupling between ecosystem photosynthesis and transpiration: a last resort against overheating, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 044013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac583e, 2022. a
Li, D., Li, Z., Zhou, Y., and Lu, X.: Substantial Increases in the Water and Sediment Fluxes in the Headwater Region of the Tibetan Plateau in Response to Global Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020G–e87745G, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087745, 2020. a
Li, H.: HaoLi2030/HESS-2022-Water-Yield: version 1.0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7315564, 2022. a
Li, H., Liu, L., Liu, X., Li, X., and Xu, Z.: Greening Implication Inferred from Vegetation Dynamics Interacted with Climate Change and Human Activities over the Southeast QinghaiTibet Plateau, Remote Sens., 11, 2421, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11202421, 2019a. a, b
Li, H., Liu, L., Shan, B., Xu, Z., Niu, Q., Cheng, L., Liu, X., and Xu, Z.:
Spatiotemporal variation of drought and associated multi-scale response to
climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,
China, Remote Sens., 11, 1596, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11131596, 2019b. a, b, c
Li, H., Liu, L., Koppa, A., Shan, B., Liu, X., Li, X., Niu, Q., Cheng, L., and Miralles, D.: Vegetation greening concurs with increases in dry season water yield over the Upper Brahmaputra River basin, J. Hydrol., 603, 126–981, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126981, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Li, J., Liu, D., Wang, T., Li, Y., Wang, S., Yang, Y., Wang, X., Guo, H., Peng, S., Ding, J., Shen, M., and Wang, L.: Grassland restoration reduces water yield in the headstream region of Yangtze River, Sci. Rep., 7, 2162, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02413-9, 2017. a
Li, X., Long, D., Han, Z., Scanlon, B. R., Sun, Z., Han, P., and Hou, A.:
Evapotranspiration estimation for Tibetan Plateau headwaters using conjoint
terrestrial and atmospheric water balances and multisource remote sensing,
Water Resour. Res., 55, 8608–8630, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025196, 2019. a
Lin, L., Gao, M., Liu, J., Wang, J., Wang, S., Chen, X., and Liu, H.: Understanding the effects of climate warming on streamflow and active groundwater storage in an alpine catchment: the upper Lhasa River, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1145-2020, 2020. a
Lutz, A., Immerzeel, W., Shrestha, A., and Bierkens, M.: Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 587–592, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2237, 2014. a, b, c
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric Tests Against Trend, Econometrica, 13, 245, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945. a
Martens, B., Miralles, D. G., Lievens, H., van der Schalie, R., de Jeu, R. A. M., Fernández-Prieto, D., Beck, H. E., Dorigo, W. A., and Verhoest, N. E. C.: GLEAM v3: satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1903–1925, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1903-2017, 2017. a, b
Pellicciotti, F., Buergi, C., Immerzeel, W. W., Konz, M., and Shrestha, A. B.: Challenges and uncertainties in hydrological modeling of remote Hindu
Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) basins: suggestions for calibration strategies, Mount. Res. Dev., 32, 39–50, https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00092.1, 2012. a
Pettitt, A. N.: A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser. C, 28, 126–135, https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729, 1979. a
Runge, J., Bathiany, S., Bollt, E., Camps-Valls, G., Coumou, D., Deyle, E., Glymour, C., Kretschmer, M., Mahecha, M. D., Muñoz-Marí, J., van Nes, E. H., Peters, J., Quax, R., Reichstein, M., Scheffer, M., Schölkopf, B., Spirtes, P., Sugihara, G., Sun, J., Zhang, K., and Zscheischler, J.: Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences, Nat. Commun., 10, 2553, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3, 2019. a
Sang, Y., Singh, V. P., Gong, T., Xu, K., Sun, F., Liu, C., Liu, W., and Chen, R.: Precipitation variability and response to changing climatic condition in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, China, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 8820–8831, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025370, 2016. a, b
Song, C., Wang, G., Sun, X., and Hu, Z.: River runoff components change variably and respond differently to climate change in the Eurasian Arctic and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost regions, J. Hydrol., 601, 126653, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126653, 2021. a
Sun, H. and Su, F.: Precipitation correction and reconstruction for streamflow simulation based on 262 rain gauges in the upper Brahmaputra of southern Tibetan Plateau, J. Hydrol., 590, 125484, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125484, 2020. a, b, c, d
Sun, H., Su, F., Huang, J., Yao, T., Luo, Y., and Chen, D.: Contrasting
precipitation gradient characteristics between westerlies and monsoon
dominated upstream river basins in the Third Pole, Chinese Sci. Bull., 65, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.1360/TB-2019-0491, 2019. a
Tang, Q., Su, F., Zhang, Y., Ding, J., He, L., Tang, Y., Liu, X., Liu, X., Xu, X., Sang, Y., Han, D., Sun, H., Leng, G., Wang, L., Fang, H., Chen, D., Zhang, S., and Lan, C.: Streamflow change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its impacts, Chin. Sci. Bull., 64, 2807–2821, https://doi.org/10.1360/TB-2019-0141, 2019. a
Viviroli, D., Archer, D. R., Buytaert, W., Fowler, H. J., Greenwood, G. B., Hamlet, A. F., Huang, Y., Koboltschnig, G., Litaor, M. I., López-Moreno, J. I., Lorentz, S., Schädler, B., Schreier, H., Schwaiger, K., Vuille, M., and Woods, R.: Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 471–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-471-2011, 2011. a, b
Wang, L., Yao, T., Chai, C., Cuo, L., Su, F., Zhang, F., Yao, Z., Zhang, Y., Li, X., Qi, J., Hu, Z., Liu, J., and Wang, Y.: TP-River: Monitoring and Quantifying Total River Runoff from the Third Pole, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E948–E965, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0207.1, 2021. a, b, c, d
Wang, L., Cuo, L., Luo, D., Su, F., Ye, Q., Yao, T., Zhou, J., Li, X., Li, N., Sun, H., Liu, L., Wang, Y., Zeng, T., Hu, Z., Liu, R., Chai, C., Wang, G., Zhong, X., Guo, X., Zhao, H., Zhao, H., and Yang, W.: Observing Multisphere Hydrological Changes in the Largest River Basin of the Tibetan Plateau, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E1595–E1620, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0217.1, 2022. a, b
Wei, X. and Zhang, M.: Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study: Large-Scale Forest Disturbance, Water Resour. Res., 46, W12525, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009250, 2010. a, b
Wei, X., Li, Q., Zhang, M., Giles-Hansen, K., Liu, W., Fan, H., Wang, Y., Zhou, G., Piao, S., and Liu, S.: Vegetation cover – another dominant factor in determining global water resources in forested regions, Global Change Biol., 24, 786–795, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13983, 2018. a
Yang, X., Yong, B., Ren, L., Zhang, Y., and Long, D.: Multi-scale validation of GLEAM evapotranspiration products over China via ChinaFLUX ET measurements, Int. J. Remote Sens., 38, 5688–5709, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2017.1346400, 2017. a, b
Yao, T., Li, Z., Yang, W., Guo, X., Zhu, L., Kang, S., Wu, Y., and Yu, W.:
Glacial distribution and mass balance in the Yarlung Zangbo River and its
influence on lakes, Chinese Sci. Bull., 55, 2072–2078, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-3213-5, 2010. a, b, c
Yao, T., Xue, Y., Chen, D., Chen, F., Thompson, L., Cui, P., Koike, T., Lau, W. K.-M., Lettenmaier, D., Mosbrugger, V., Zhang, R., Xu, B., Dozier, J., Gillespie, T., Gu, Y., Kang, S., Piao, S., Sugimoto, S., Ueno, K., Wang, L., Wang, W., Zhang, F., Sheng, Y., Guo, W., Ailikun, Yang, X., Ma, Y., Shen, S. S. P., Su, Z., Chen, F., Liang, S., Liu, Y., Singh, V. P., Yang, K., Yang, D., Zhao, X., Qian, Y., Zhang, Y., and Li, Q.: Recent Third Pole's Rapid Warming Accompanies Cryospheric Melt and Water Cycle Intensification and Interactions between Monsoon and Environment: Multidisciplinary Approach with Observations, Modeling, and Analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 423–444, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0057.1, 2019. a, b, c, d
Zhang, G., Yao, T., Piao, S., Bolch, T., Xie, H., Chen, D., Gao, Y., O'Reilly, C. M., Shum, C. K., Yang, K., Yi, S., Lei, Y., Wang, W., He, Y., Shang, K., Yang, X., and Zhang, H.: Extensive and drastically different alpine lake changes on Asia's high plateaus during the past four decades, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 252–260, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072033, 2017. a
Zhang, L., Nan, Z., Wang, W., Ren, D., Zhao, Y., and Wu, X.: Separating climate change and human contributions to variations in streamflow and its components using eight time-trend methods, Hydrol. Process., 33, 383–394, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13331, 2019. a
Zhang, M. and Wei, X.: Deforestation, forestation, and water supply, Science,
371, 990–991, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe7821, 2021. a
Zhang, M., Ren, Q., Wei, X., Wang, J., Yang, X., and Jiang, Z.: Climate change, glacier melting and streamflow in the Niyang River Basin, Southeast Tibet, China, Ecohydrology, 4, 288–298, https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.206, 2011. a
Zhang, Y., Xu, C.-Y., Hao, Z., Zhang, L., Ju, Q., and Lai, X.: Variation of Melt Water and Rainfall Runoff and Their Impacts on Streamflow Changes during Recent Decades in Two Tibetan Plateau Basins, Water, 12, 3112, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113112, 2020.
a
Zhou, X., Zhang, Y., Beck, H. E., and Yang, Y.: Divergent negative spring vegetation and summer runoff patterns and their driving mechanisms in natural ecosystems of northern latitudes, J. Hydrol., 592, 125848, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125848, 2021. a
Zhu, Z., Bi, J., Pan, Y., Ganguly, S., Anav, A., Xu, L., Samanta, A., Piao, S., Nemani, R. R., and Myneni, R. B.: Global data sets of vegetation leaf area index (LAI) 3g and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) 3g derived from global inventory modeling and mapping studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) for the period 1981 to 2011, Remote Sens., 5, 927–948, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5020927, 2013. a
Zhu, Z., Piao, S., Myneni, R. B., Huang, M., Zeng, Z., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Arneth, A., Cao, C., Cheng, L., Kato, E., Koven, C., Li, Y., Lian, X., Liu, Y., Liu, R., Mao, J., Pan, Y., Peng, S., Peñuelas, J., Poulter, B., Pugh, T. A. M., Stocker, B. D., Viovy, N., Wang, X., Wang, Y., Xiao, Z., Yang, H., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.: Greening of the Earth and its drivers, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 791–795, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3004, 2016. a, b
Short summary
This study examines changes in water yield by determining turning points in the direction of yield changes and highlights that regime shifts in historical water yield occurred in the Upper Brahmaputra River basin, both the climate and cryosphere affect the magnitude of water yield increases, climate determined the declining trends in water yield, and meltwater has the potential to alleviate the water shortage. A repository for all source files is made available.
This study examines changes in water yield by determining turning points in the direction of...
