Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 11 Apr 2022
| 11 Apr 2022
Drought impact links to meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles
School of Integrated Climate System Science, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg 20148, Germany
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne 1015, Switzerland
Christian L. E. Franzke
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan 46241, Republic of Korea
Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Republic of Korea
Related authors
No articles found.
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3377, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a 10-member extension from 2101 to 2500 of the CESM2-LE, under a scenario aiming for zero fossil fuel emissions by 2250. Key findings include a 12 °C warming, a 23.5 % rise in precipitation, and diminished ENSO variability. Substantial carbon release from thawing permafrost will shift land from a carbon sink to a source. The ocean’s CO2 absorption capacity will decline, emphasizing the extensive impacts of long-term climate change on ecosystems and human societies.
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2491, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Based on a series of storm-resolving greenhouse warming simulations conducted with the AWI-CM3 model at 9 km global atmosphere, 4–25 km ocean resolution, we present new projections of regional climate change, modes of climate variability and extreme events. The 10-year-long high resolution simulations for the 2000s, 2030s, 2060s, 2090s were initialized from a coarser resolution transient run (31 km atmosphere) which follows the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario from 1950–2100 CE.
Vera Melinda Galfi, Tommaso Alberti, Lesley De Cruz, Christian L. E. Franzke, and Valerio Lembo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 185–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the online seminar series "Perspectives on climate sciences: from historical developments to future frontiers" (2020–2021), well-known and established scientists from several fields – including mathematics, physics, climate science and ecology – presented their perspectives on the evolution of climate science and on relevant scientific concepts. In this paper, we first give an overview of the content of the seminar series, and then we introduce the written contributions to this special issue.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Thomas Önskog, Christian L. E. Franzke, and Abdel Hannachi
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions throughout Europe, North America and the North Atlantic. In this paper, we study a number of linear and nonlinear models for a station-based time series of the daily winter NAO. We find that a class of nonlinear models, including both short and long lags, excellently reproduce the characteristic statistical properties of the NAO. These models can hence be used to simulate the NAO.
Ola Haug, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Sigrunn H. Sørbye, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Trends in gridded temperature data are commonly assessed independently for each grid cell, ignoring spatial coherencies. This may severely affect the interpretation of the results. This article proposes a space–time model for temperatures that allows for joint assessments of the trend across locations. In a case study of summer season trends in Europe, it is found that the region with a significant trend under spatial coherency is vastly different from that under independent assessments.
Related subject area
Subject: Water Resources Management | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Creating a national urban flood dataset for China from news texts (2000–2022) at the county level
Spatially explicit assessment of water stress and potential mitigating solutions in a large water-limited basin: the Yellow River basin in China
A scalable and modular reservoir implementation for large-scale integrated hydrologic simulations
The interprovincial green water flow in China and its teleconnected effects on the social economy
Modeling hydropower operations at the scale of a power grid: a demand-based approach
Determining the threshold of issuing flash flood warnings based on people's response process simulation
Modeling water balance components of conifer species using the Noah-MP model in an eastern Mediterranean ecosystem
Assessment of upscaling methodologies for daily crop transpiration using sap flows and two-source energy balance models in almonds under different water statuses and production systems
Making a case for power-sensitive water modelling: a literature review
Developing water supply reservoir operating rules for large-scale hydrological modelling
An investigation of anthropogenic influences on hydrologic connectivity using model stress tests
The H2Ours game to explore water use, resources and sustainability: connecting issues in two landscapes in Indonesia
Drainage assessment of irrigation districts: on the precision and accuracy of four parsimonious models
Impact of reservoir evaporation on future water availability in north-eastern Brazil: a multi-scenario assessment
How economically and environmentally viable are multiple dams in the upper Cauvery Basin, India? A hydro-economic analysis using a landscape-based hydrological model
Leveraging a novel hybrid ensemble and optimal interpolation approach for enhanced streamflow and flood prediction
Value of seasonal flow forecasts for enhancing reservoir operation and drought management in South Korea
Optimising Ensemble Streamflow Predictions with Bias-Correction and Data Assimilation Techniques
Can adaptations of crop and soil management prevent yield losses during water scarcity? – A modelling study
A generalised ecohydrological landscape classification for assessing ecosystem risk in Australia due to an altering water regime
Process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model for complex water resource systems considering reclaimed water
Joint optimal operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering the evenness of water deficit
Employing the generalized Pareto distribution to analyze extreme rainfall events on consecutive rainy days in Thailand's Chi watershed: implications for flood management
How to account for irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model
Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Evaluating an Earth system model from a water user perspective
The precision of satellite-based net irrigation quantification in the Indus and Ganges basins
Developing a Bayesian network model for understanding river catchment resilience under future change scenarios
Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River
Dynamically coupling system dynamics and SWAT+ models using Tinamït: application of modular tools for coupled human–water system models
Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework for assessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors on flood evacuation processes
Cooperation in a transboundary river basin: a large-scale socio-hydrological model of the Eastern Nile
Flexible forecast value metric suitable for a wide range of decisions: application using probabilistic subseasonal streamflow forecasts
An improved model of shade-affected stream temperature in Soil & Water Assessment Tool
Seasonal forecasting of snow resources at Alpine sites
Operationalizing equity in multipurpose water systems
Evaluation of a new observationally based channel parameterization for the National Water Model
High-resolution drought simulations and comparison to soil moisture observations in Germany
Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake
Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Challenges and benefits of quantifying irrigation through the assimilation of Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into Noah-MP
A system dynamic model to quantify the impacts of water resources allocation on water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus
Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe
The role of multi-criteria decision analysis in a transdisciplinary process: co-developing a flood forecasting system in western Africa
Unfolding the relationship between seasonal forecast skill and value in hydropower production: a global analysis
Opportunities for seasonal forecasting to support water management outside the tropics
Probabilistic modelling of the inherent field-level pesticide pollution risk in a small drinking water catchment using spatial Bayesian belief networks
Are maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?
Historical simulation of maize water footprints with a new global gridded crop model ACEA
Future upstream water consumption and its impact on downstream water availability in the transboundary Indus Basin
Shengnan Fu, David M. Schultz, Heng Lyu, Zhonghua Zheng, and Chi Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 767–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-767-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We create China’s first open county-level urban flood dataset (2000–2022) using news media data with the help of deep learning. The dataset reflects both natural and societal influences and includes 7595 urban flood events across 2051 counties, covering 46 % of China’s land area. It reveals the predominance of summer floods, an upward trend since 2000, and a decline from southeast to northwest. Notably, some highly developed regions show a decrease, likely due to improved flood management.
Weibin Zhang, Xining Zhao, Xuerui Gao, Wei Liang, Junyi Li, and Baoqing Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 507–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-507-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Yellow River basin shows worsening water stress indicators (WSIs) over 1965‒2020. Water withdrawal is the main factor driving WSI before 2000, balanced by water availability. Local water yield and upstream flows are key drivers of sub-basin water availability. Water demand is expected to rise by 6.5 % in the 2030s, creating an 8.36 km³ surface water deficit. Enhanced irrigation efficiency can cut this deficit by 25 %, maintaining the stress level but worsening it for 44.9% of the population.
Benjamin D. West, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-245-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-245-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the addition of reservoirs to the hydrologic model ParFlow. ParFlow is particularly good at helping us understand some of the broader drivers behind different parts of the water cycle. By having reservoirs in such a model, we hope to be able to better understand both our impacts on the environment and how to adjust our management of reservoirs to changing conditions.
Shan Sang, Yan Li, Chengcheng Hou, Shuangshuang Zi, and Huiqing Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 67–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-67-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-67-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Green water exchanges between each province in China form an interconnected flow network and have substantial socioeconomic values. Green water flow and its teleconnected socioeconomic effects should be considered in water resource management in addition to blue water.
Laure Baratgin, Jan Polcher, Patrice Dumas, and Philippe Quirion
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5479–5509, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modeling is valuable for estimating the potential impact of climate change on hydropower generation. This study presents a comprehensive approach to modeling the management of hydroelectric reservoirs in hydrological models. The total power grid demand for hydropower is distributed to the various power plants to compute their release. The method is tested on the French national power grid, and it is demonstrated that it successfully reproduces the observed behavior of reservoirs.
Ruikang Zhang, Dedi Liu, Lihua Xiong, Jie Chen, Hua Chen, and Jiabo Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5229–5247, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5229-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash flood warnings cannot be effective without people’s responses to them. We propose a method to determine the threshold of issuing warnings based on a people’s response process simulation. The results show that adjusting the warning threshold according to people’s tolerance levels to the failed warnings can improve warning effectiveness, but the prerequisite is to increase forecasting accuracy and decrease forecasting variance.
Mohsen Amini Fasakhodi, Hakan Djuma, Ioannis Sofokleous, Marinos Eliades, and Adriana Bruggeman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5209–5227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined the water use of pine and cypress trees in a semiarid Mediterranean forest environment. We applied a widely used land surface model (Noah-MP) to simulate the water balance of the ecosystem. We found good modeling results for soil moisture. However, the model underestimated the transpiration of the trees during the dry summer months. These findings indicate that more research is needed to improve the modeling of ecosystem responses to climate and land use change.
Manuel Quintanilla-Albornoz, Xavier Miarnau, Ana Pelechá, Héctor Nieto, and Joaquim Bellvert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4797–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4797-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Remote sensing can be a helpful tool for monitoring crop transpiration (T) for agricultural water management. Since remote sensing provides instantaneous data, upscaling techniques are required to estimate T on a daily scale. This study assesses optimal image acquisition times and four upscaling approaches to estimate daily T. The results indicate that the main errors derive from measurement time and water stress levels, which can be mitigated by choosing a proper upscaling approach.
Rozemarijn ter Horst, Rossella Alba, Jeroen Vos, Maria Rusca, Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Lucie V. Babel, Gert Jan Veldwisch, Jean-Philippe Venot, Bruno Bonté, David W. Walker, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exact power of models often remains hidden, especially when neutrality is claimed. Our review of 61 scientific articles shows that in the scientific literature little attention is given to the power of water models to influence development processes and outcomes. However, there is a lot to learn from those who are openly reflexive. Based on lessons from the review, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what effects.
Saskia Salwey, Gemma Coxon, Francesca Pianosi, Rosanna Lane, Chris Hutton, Michael Bliss Singer, Hilary McMillan, and Jim Freer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4203–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reservoirs are essential for water resource management and can significantly impact downstream flow. However, representing reservoirs in hydrological models can be challenging, particularly across large scales. We design a new and simple method for simulating river flow downstream of water supply reservoirs using only open-access data. We demonstrate the approach in 264 reservoir catchments across Great Britain, where we can significantly improve the simulation of reservoir-impacted flow.
Amelie Herzog, Jost Hellwig, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4065–4083, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Surface water–groundwater interaction can vary along a river. This study used a groundwater model that reproduced relative observed longitudinal and vertical connectivity patterns in the river network to assess the system's response to imposed stress tests. For the case study, imposed groundwater abstraction appears to influence connectivity relatively more than altered recharge, but a quantification of absolute exchange flows will require further model improvements.
Lisa Tanika, Rika Ratna Sari, Arief Lukman Hakim, Meine van Noordwijk, Marielos Peña-Claros, Beria Leimona, Edi Purwanto, and Erika N. Speelman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3807–3835, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The H2Ours game is designed to facilitate knowledge transfer and sharing among stakeholders to trigger commitment and collaborative action to restore hydrological conditions. The adaptability of the H2Ours game was proven in two different landscapes: groundwater recharge in upper to middle sub-watersheds with (over)use of water in the lowland zone and a peatland with drainage, rewetting, oil palm conversion and fire as issues. The game evaluation shows that the H2Ours game meets its purpose.
Pierre Laluet, Luis Olivera-Guerra, Víctor Altés, Vincent Rivalland, Alexis Jeantet, Julien Tournebize, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Josep Maria Villar, and Olivier Merlin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3695–3716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3695-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring agricultural drainage flow in irrigated areas is key to water and soil management. In this paper, four simple drainage models are evaluated on two irrigated sub-basins where drainage flow is measured daily. The evaluation of their precision shows that they simulate drainage very well when calibrated with drainage data and that one of them is slightly better. The evaluation of their accuracy shows that only one model can provide rough drainage estimates without calibration data.
Gláuber Pontes Rodrigues, Arlena Brosinsky, Ítalo Sampaio Rodrigues, George Leite Mamede, and José Carlos de Araújo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research focuses on a 4-million-inhabitant tropical region supplied by a network of open-water reservoirs where the dry season lasts for 8 months (Jun−Dec). We analysed the impact of four climate change scenarios on the evaporation rate and the associated availability (water yield distributed per year). The worst-case scenario shows that by the end of the century (2071−2099), the evaporation rate in the dry season could increase by 6 %, which would reduce stored water by about 80 %.
Anjana Ekka, Yong Jiang, Saket Pande, and Pieter van der Zaag
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3219–3241, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3219-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, we analyse the economic and ecological performance of existing multiple big reservoirs on a daily timescale for a major river basin (upper Cauvery) in India, where pre-intervention data were not available but where there are increasing calls for such assessments. Results show that smaller reservoirs on smaller streams that maximize the economic value of stored water are better for the basin economy and the environment. The approach can help to prioritize dam removals.
Mohamad El Gharamti, Arezoo Rafieeinasab, and James L. McCreight
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3133–3159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a hybrid data assimilation scheme for precise streamflow predictions during intense rainfall and hurricanes. Tested in real events, it outperforms traditional methods by up to 50 %, utilizing ensemble and climatological background covariances. The adaptive algorithm ensures reliability with a small ensemble, offering improved forecasts up to 18 h in advance, marking a significant advancement in flood prediction capabilities.
Yongshin Lee, Andres Peñuela, Francesca Pianosi, and Miguel Angel Rico-Ramirez
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1985, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the value of Seasonal Flow Forecasts (SFFs) in informing decision-making for drought management in South Korea and introduces a novel method for assessing value benchmarked against historical operations. Our results show the importance of considering flow forecast uncertainty in reservoir operations. But the difference in value between SFFs and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction is negligible. The method for selecting a compromise release schedule is a key control of the value.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Amulya Chevuturi, Eugene Magee, Elizabeth Cooper, Robert H. B. Johnson, Katie Facer-Childs, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-179, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our research compares two techniques, Bias-Correction (BC) and Data Assimilation (DA), for improving river flow forecasts across 316 UK catchments. BC, which corrects errors post-simulation, showed broad improvements, while DA, adjusting model states pre-forecast, excelled in specific conditions like snowmelt and high base flows. Each method's unique strengths suit different scenarios. These insights can enhance forecasting systems, offering reliable and user-friendly hydrological predictions.
Malve Heinz, Maria Eliza Turek, Bettina Schaefli, Andreas Keiser, and Annelie Holzkämper
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1201, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Potato farmers in Switzerland are facing drier conditions and water restrictions. We explored how improving soil health and planting early maturing potato varieties might help to adapt. Using a computer model, we simulated potato yields and irrigation water needs under water scarcity. Our results show that earlier maturing potato varieties reduce the reliance on irrigation but result in lower yields. However, improving soil health can significantly reduce yield losses.
Alexander Herr, Linda E. Merrin, Patrick J. Mitchell, Anthony P. O'Grady, Kate L. Holland, Richard E. Mount, David A. Post, Chris R. Pavey, and Ashley D. Sparrow
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1957–1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1957-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We develop an ecohydrological classification for regions with limited hydrological records. It provides causal links of landscape features and their water requirement. The classification is an essential framework for modelling the impact of future coal resource developments via water on the features. A rule set combines diverse data with prioritisation, resulting in a transparent, repeatable and adjustable approach. We show examples of linking ecohydrology with environmental impacts.
Jing Liu, Yue-Ping Xu, Wei Zhang, Shiwu Wang, and Siwei Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1325–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1325-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Applying optimal water allocation models to simultaneously enable economic benefits, water preferences, and environmental demands at different decision levels, timescales, and regions is a challenge. In this study, a process-based three-layer synergistic optimal-allocation model (PTSOA) is established to achieve these goals. Reused, reclaimed water is also coupled to capture environmentally friendly solutions. Network analysis was introduced to reduce competition among different stakeholders.
Bing-Yi Zhou, Guo-Hua Fang, Xin Li, Jian Zhou, and Hua-Yu Zhong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 817–832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The current unreasonable inter-basin water transfer operation leads to the problem of spatial and temporal imbalances in water allocation. This paper defines a water deficit evenness index and incorporates it into a joint optimization model for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering ecology and economy. At the same time, the lake storage capacity performs well, and the water transfer efficiency of the river is significantly improved.
Tossapol Phoophiwfa, Prapawan Chomphuwiset, Thanawan Prahadchai, Jeong-Soo Park, Arthit Apichottanakul, Watchara Theppang, and Piyapatr Busababodhin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 801–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-801-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the impact of extreme rainfall events on flood risk management in Thailand's Chi watershed. By analyzing historical data, we identified regions, notably Udon Thani and Chaiyaphum, with a high risk of flash flooding. To aid in flood risk assessment, visual maps were created. The study underscores the importance of preparing for extreme rainfall events, particularly in the context of climate change, to effectively mitigate potential flood damage.
Elisabeth Brochet, Youen Grusson, Sabine Sauvage, Ludovic Lhuissier, and Valérie Demarez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 49–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-49-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to take into account irrigation withdrawals in a watershed model. The model we used combines agriculture and hydrological modeling. Two different crop models were compared, the first based on air temperature and the second based on Sentinel-2 satellite data. Results show that including remote sensing data leads to better emergence dates. Both methods allow us to simulate the daily irrigation withdrawals and downstream flow with a good accuracy, especially during low-flow periods.
Awad M. Ali, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4057–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4057-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a new approach based on a combination of modeling and Earth observation, useful information about the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can be obtained with limited data and proper rainfall selection. While the monthly streamflow into Sudan has decreased significantly (1.2 × 109–5 × 109 m3) with respect to the non-dam scenario, the negative impact has been masked due to higher-than-average rainfall. We reveal that the dam will need 3–5 more years to complete filling.
Mari R. Tye, Ming Ge, Jadwiga H. Richter, Ethan D. Gutmann, Allyson Rugg, Cindy L. Bruyère, Sue Ellen Haupt, Flavio Lehner, Rachel McCrary, Andrew J. Newman, and Andrew Wood
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2326, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is a perceived mismatch between the spatial scales that global climate models can produce data and that needed for water management decisions. However, poor communication of specific metrics relevant to local decisions is also a problem. We identified a potential set of water use decision metrics to assess their credibility in the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2). CESM2 can reliably reproduce many of these metrics and shows potential to support long-range water resource decisions.
Søren J. Kragh, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2463–2478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2463-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the precision of irrigation estimates from a global hotspot of unsustainable irrigation practice, the Indus and Ganges basins. We show that irrigation water use can be estimated with high precision by comparing satellite and rainfed hydrological model estimates of evapotranspiration. We believe that our work can support sustainable water resource management, as it addresses the uncertainty of a key component of the water balance that remains challenging to quantify.
Kerr J. Adams, Christopher A. J. Macleod, Marc J. Metzger, Nicola Melville, Rachel C. Helliwell, Jim Pritchard, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2205–2225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2205-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We applied participatory methods to create a hybrid equation-based Bayesian network (BN) model to increase stakeholder understanding of catchment-scale resilience to the impacts of both climatic and socio-economic stressors to a 2050 time horizon. Our holistic systems-thinking approach enabled stakeholders to gain new perspectives on how future scenarios may influence their specific sectors and how their sector impacted other sectors and environmental conditions within the catchment system.
Afua Owusu, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Marloes Mul, Pieter van der Zaag, and Jill Slinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2001–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The construction of two dams in the Lower Volta River, Ghana, adversely affected downstream riverine ecosystems and communities. In contrast, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and water for anthropogenic water demands such hydropower. In this study, we quantify these trade-offs and show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current and future climatic conditions.
Joel Z. Harms, Julien J. Malard-Adam, Jan F. Adamowski, Ashutosh Sharma, and Albert Nkwasa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1683–1693, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1683-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To facilitate the meaningful participation of stakeholders in water management, model choice is crucial. We show how system dynamics models (SDMs), which are very visual and stakeholder-friendly, can be automatically combined with physically based hydrological models that may be more appropriate for modelling the water processes of a human–water system. This allows building participatory SDMs with stakeholders and delegating hydrological components to an external hydrological model.
Erhu Du, Feng Wu, Hao Jiang, Naliang Guo, Yong Tian, and Chunmiao Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1607–1626, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1607-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that can simulate the entire flood management processes, including flood inundation, flood management policies, public responses, and evacuation activities. The model is able to holistically examine flood evacuation performance under the joint impacts of hydrological conditions, management policies (i.e., shelter location distribution), and human behaviors (i.e., evacuation preparation time and route-searching strategy).
Mohammad Ghoreishi, Amin Elshorbagy, Saman Razavi, Günter Blöschl, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Ahmed Abdelkader
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1201–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1201-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin. Our results suggest that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. The model can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operations and other management decisions on the emergence of basin cooperation.
Richard Laugesen, Mark Thyer, David McInerney, and Dmitri Kavetski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 873–893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts may be valuable for user decisions, but current practice to quantify it has critical limitations. This study introduces RUV (relative utility value, a new metric that can be tailored to specific decisions and decision-makers. It illustrates how critical this decision context is when evaluating forecast value. This study paves the way for agencies to tailor the evaluation of their services to customer decisions and researchers to study model improvements through the lens of user impact.
Efrain Noa-Yarasca, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, and Chris Jordan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 739–759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Riparian vegetation has been identified as a strategy to control rising stream temperatures by shading streams. Riparian vegetation is included within a sub-basin-scale hydrological model and evaluated for full and efficient restoration scenarios. Results showed average temperature reductions of 0.91 and 0.86 °C for full and efficient riparian restoration, respectively. Notwithstanding the similar benefits, efficient restoration was 14.4 % cheaper than full riparian vegetation restoration.
Silvia Terzago, Giulio Bongiovanni, and Jost von Hardenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 519–542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable seasonal forecasts of the abundance of mountain snowpack over the winter/spring ahead provide valuable information for water management, hydropower production and ski tourism. We present a climate service prototype to generate multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts of mountain snow depth, based on Copernicus seasonal forecast system meteorological data used to force the SNOWPACK model. The prototype shows skill at predicting snow depth below and above normal and extremely dry seasons.
Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-69-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Participatory decision-making is a well-established approach to address the increasing pressure on water systems that searches for system-wise efficient solutions but often does not quantify how the resulting benefits are distributed across stakeholders. In this work, we show how including equity principles into the design of water system operations enriches the solution space by generating more compromise solutions that balance efficiency and justice.
Aaron Heldmyer, Ben Livneh, James McCreight, Laura Read, Joseph Kasprzyk, and Toby Minear
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6121–6136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Measurements of channel characteristics are important for accurate forecasting in the NOAA National Water Model (NWM) but are scarcely available. We seek to improve channel representativeness in the NWM by updating channel geometry and roughness parameters using a large, previously unpublished, dataset of approximately 48 000 gauges. We find that the updated channel parameterization from this new dataset leads to improvements in simulated streamflow performance and channel representation.
Friedrich Boeing, Oldrich Rakovec, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, Martin Schrön, Anke Hildebrandt, Corinna Rebmann, Stephan Thober, Sebastian Müller, Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Katrin Schneider, Ralf Kiese, Sabine Attinger, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5137–5161, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5137-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we deliver an evaluation of the second generation operational German drought monitor (https://www.ufz.de/duerremonitor) with a state-of-the-art compilation of observed soil moisture data from 40 locations and four different measurement methods in Germany. We show that the expressed stakeholder needs for higher resolution drought information at the one-kilometer scale can be met and that the agreement of simulated and observed soil moisture dynamics can be moderately improved.
Anahi Ocampo-Melgar, Pilar Barría, Cristián Chadwick, and Cesar Rivas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines how a hydrological model exploring the causes of a lake desiccation was turned into a 5-step participatory process to better adjust the model to address questions that were causing suspicions and conflicts in the community. Although the process was key in finding a combination of strategies that were of moderate impact and higher local acceptability, we address the challenges of such collaboration in modeling when conflict is deeply embedded in the context.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Yujie Zeng, Dedi Liu, Shenglian Guo, Lihua Xiong, Pan Liu, Jiabo Yin, and Zhenhui Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3965–3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3965-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The sustainability of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus remains challenge, as interactions between WEF and human sensitivity and water resource allocation in water systems are often neglected. We incorporated human sensitivity and water resource allocation into a WEF nexus and assessed their impacts on the integrated system. This study can contribute to understanding the interactions across the water–energy–food–society nexus and improving the efficiency of resource management.
Louise Busschaert, Shannon de Roos, Wim Thiery, Dirk Raes, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3731–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Increasing amounts of water are used for agriculture. Therefore, we looked into how irrigation requirements will evolve under a changing climate over Europe. Our results show that, by the end of the century and under high emissions, irrigation water will increase by 30 % on average compared to the year 2000. Also, the irrigation requirement is likely to vary more from 1 year to another. However, if emissions are mitigated, these effects are reduced.
Judit Lienert, Jafet C. M. Andersson, Daniel Hofmann, Francisco Silva Pinto, and Martijn Kuller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2899–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2899-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Many western Africans encounter serious floods every year. The FANFAR project co-designed a pre-operational flood forecasting system (FEWS) with 50 key western African stakeholders. Participatory multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) helped prioritize a FEWS that meets their needs: it should provide accurate, clear, and timely flood risk information and work reliably in tough conditions. As a theoretical contribution, we propose an assessment framework for transdisciplinary hydrology research.
Donghoon Lee, Jia Yi Ng, Stefano Galelli, and Paul Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2431–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2431-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To fully realize the potential of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the hydropower industry, we need to understand the relationship between reservoir design specifications, forecast skill, and value. Here, we rely on realistic forecasts and simulated hydropower operations for 753 dams worldwide to unfold such relationship. Our analysis shows how forecast skill affects hydropower production, what type of dams are most likely to benefit from seasonal forecasts, and where these dams are located.
Leah A. Jackson-Blake, François Clayer, Elvira de Eyto, Andrew S. French, María Dolores Frías, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Tadhg Moore, Laura Puértolas, Russell Poole, Karsten Rinke, Muhammed Shikhani, Leon van der Linden, and Rafael Marcé
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1389–1406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1389-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore, together with stakeholders, whether seasonal forecasting of water quantity, quality, and ecology can help support water management at five case study sites, primarily in Europe. Reliable forecasting, a season in advance, has huge potential to improve decision-making. However, managers were reluctant to use the forecasts operationally. Key barriers were uncertainty and often poor historic performance. The importance of practical hands-on experience was also highlighted.
Mads Troldborg, Zisis Gagkas, Andy Vinten, Allan Lilly, and Miriam Glendell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1261–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1261-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pesticides continue to pose a threat to surface water quality worldwide. Here, we present a spatial Bayesian belief network (BBN) for assessing inherent pesticide risk to water quality. The BBN was applied in a small catchment with limited data to simulate the risk of five pesticides and evaluate the likely effectiveness of mitigation measures. The probabilistic graphical model combines diverse data and explicitly accounts for uncertainties, which are often ignored in pesticide risk assessments.
Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Christen Duus Børgesen, Jørgen Eivind Olesen, and Dennis Trolle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 955–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how the spatial nitrate reduction in the subsurface may shift under changing climate and land use conditions. This change is investigated by comparing maps showing the spatial nitrate reduction in an agricultural catchment for current conditions, with maps generated for future projected climate and land use conditions. Results show that future climate flow paths may shift the catchment reduction noticeably, while implications of land use changes were less substantial.
Oleksandr Mialyk, Joep F. Schyns, Martijn J. Booij, and Rick J. Hogeboom
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 923–940, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-923-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As the global demand for crops is increasing, it is vital to understand spatial and temporal patterns of crop water footprints (WFs). Previous studies looked into spatial patterns but not into temporal ones. Here, we present a new process-based gridded crop model to simulate WFs and apply it for maize in 1986–2016. We show that despite the average unit WF reduction (−35 %), the global WF of maize production has increased (+50 %), which might harm ecosystems and human livelihoods in some regions.
Wouter J. Smolenaars, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Muhammad K. Jamil, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, and Hester Biemans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 861–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-861-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin rely heavily on the water provided by the mountainous upper Indus. Rapid population growth in the upper Indus is expected to increase the water that is consumed there. This will subsequently reduce the water that is available for the downstream plains, where the population and water demand are also expected to grow. In future, this may aggravate tensions over the division of water between the countries that share the Indus Basin.
Cited articles
Austin, R., Cantero-Martínez, C., Arrúe, J., Playán, E., and
Cano-Marcellán, P.: Yield–rainfall relationships in cereal cropping
systems in the Ebro river valley of Spain, Eur. J. Agron., 8, 239–248,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(97)00063-4, 1998. a
Bachmair, S., Kohn, I., and Stahl, K.: Exploring the link between drought indicators and impacts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1381–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1381-2015, 2015. a, b, c, d
Bachmair, S., Stahl, K., Collins, K., Hannaford, J., Acreman, M., Svoboda, M.,
Knutson, C., Smith, K. H., Wall, N., Fuchs, B., Crossman, N. D., and Overton,
I. C.: Drought indicators revisited: the need for a wider consideration of
environment and society: Drought indicators revisited, Wiley Interdiscip.
Rev.: Water, 3, 516–536, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1154, 2016a. a, b, c, d
Bachmair, S., Svensson, C., Prosdocimi, I., Hannaford, J., and Stahl, K.: Developing drought impact functions for drought risk management, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1947–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1947-2017, 2017. a
Beguería, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Reig, F., and Latorre, B.:
Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited:
parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought
monitoring, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3001–3023, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3887, 2014. a
Beguería, S. and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Calculation of the
Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiratoin Index, CRAN [code], http://sac.csic.es/spei (last access: 5 April 2022), 2017. a
Blauhut, V.: The triple complexity of drought risk analysis and its
visualisation via mapping: a review across scales and sectors, Earth-Sci.
Rev., 210, 103345, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103345, 2020. a, b
Blauhut, V., Gudmundsson, L., and Stahl, K.: Towards pan-European drought
risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought impacts, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 014008,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014008, 2015. a, b
Blauhut, V., Stahl, K., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., De Stefano, L., and Vogt, J.: Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2779–2800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f
Boletín Oficial del Estado: Real Decreto 14/2009, de 5 de diciembre,
por el que se adoptan medidas urgentes para paliar los efectos producidos por
la sequía en determinadas cuencas hidrográficas, Boletín Oficial del Estado, 293, 103532–103544,
https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2009/12/05/pdfs/BOE-A-2009-19563.pdf,
2009. a
Cardona, O. D., Van Aalst, M. K., Birkmann, J., Fordham, M., Mc Gregor,
G., Rosa, P., Pulwarty, R. S., Schipper, E. L. F., and Sinh, B. T.: Determinants of risk: exposure and
vulnerability, in: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change
adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, 65–108, 2012. a
Cutler, A., Cutler, D. R., and Stevens, J. R.: Random Forests, in: Ensemble
Machine Learning: Methods and Applications, edited by Zhang, C. and
Ma, Y., Springer US, Boston, MA,, 157–175, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9326-7_5, 2012. a, b
Davis, J. and Goadrich, M.: The relationship between Precision-Recall and
ROC curves, in: Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on
Machine learning, Association for Computing Machinery,
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, 15 June 2006, 233–240
https://doi.org/10.1145/1143844.1143874, 2006. a, b
del Moral, L. and Hernandez-Mora, N.: La experiencia de sequías en España:
inercias del pasado y nuevas tendencias en la gestión de riesgos, in: 5∘
Water Governance International Meeting, Water Governance Practices under
Water Scarcity, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 10–13 November 2015, 2015. a
del Moral, L. and Saurí, D.: Changing Course: Water Policy in
Spain, Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 41, 12–15,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00139159909604640, 1999. a
Estrela, T. and Vargas, E.: Drought Management Plans in the European
Union. The Case of Spain, Water Resour. Manage., 26, 1537–1553,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9971-2, 2012. a
European Environment Agency: CORINE Land Cover (CLC), Copernicus Services [data set],
https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover (last access: 12 November 2021), 2022. a
Eurostat: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/nuts/background,
last access: 12 February 2020. a
Eurostat: Your key to European statistics, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/, last access: 5 April 2022a. a
Eurostat: Unemployment rates by sex, age, educational attainment level and NUTS 2 regions (%), eurostat Data Browser [data set], http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?lang=en&dataset=lfst_r_lfu3rt, last access: 5 April 2022b. a
Eurostat: Population density by NUTS3 region, eurostat Data Browser [data set],
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/DEMO_R_D3DENS/default/table?lang=en&category=reg.reg_dem.reg_dempoar, last access: 5 April 2022c. a
Eurostat: Gross value added at basic prices by NUTS 3 regions, eurostat Data Browser [data set],
http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nama_10r_3gva, last access: 5 April 2022d. a
Farahmand, A. and AghaKouchak, A.: A generalized framework for deriving
nonparametric standardized drought indicators, Adv. Water Resour., 76,
140–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.11.012, 2015a. a, b
Farahmand, A. and AghaKouchak, A.: Standardized Drought Analysis
Toolbox (SDAT) Software Package, [code], http://amir.eng.uci.edu/software.php (last access: 5 April 2022), 2015b. a
Feldstein, S. B. and Franzke, C.: Are the North Atlantic
Oscillation and the northern annular mode distinguishable?, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2915–2930, https://doi.org/10.1175/JA3798.1, 2006. a
Feldstein, S. B. and Franzke, C. L. E.: Atmospheric Teleconnection
Patterns, in: Nonlinear and Stochastic Climate Dynamics, edited by
Franzke, C. L. E. and O'Kane, T. J., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 54–104, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316339251.004, 2017. a
Gimeno, L., Ribera, P., Iglesias, R., de la Torre, L., García, R., and
Hernández, E.: Identification of empirical relationships between
indices of ENSO and NAO and agricultural yields in Spain, Clim. Res., 21,
165–172, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr021165, 2002. a
González-Hidalgo, J. C., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Peña-Angulo, D.,
Salinas, C., Tomas-Burguera, M., and Beguería, S.: High-resolution
spatio-temporal analyses of drought episodes in the western Mediterranean
basin (Spanish mainland, Iberian Peninsula), Acta Geophys., 66,
381–392, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0138-x, 2018. a, b, c, d
Gouveia, C., Trigo, R., Beguería, S., and Vicente-Serrano, S.: Drought impacts
on vegetation activity in the Mediterranean region: An assessment using
remote sensing data and multi-scale drought indicators, Global Planet.
Change, 151, 15–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.011, 2017. a
Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Anthropogenic climate change affects
meteorological drought risk in Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 044005,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044005, 2016. a
Gudmundsson, L., Rego, F. C., Rocha, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Predicting
above normal wildfire activity in southern Europe as a function of
meteorological drought, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 084008,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084008, 2014. a
Guha-Sapir, D., Below, R., and Hoyois, P.: EM-DAT: the CRED/OFDA
international disaster database, Université Catholique de Louvain [data
set], https://www.emdat.be/ (last access: 1 April 2021), 2016. a
Gutiérrez, J. M., Herrera, S., Cardoso, R. M., Soares, P. M. M.,
Espírito-Santo, F., and Viterbo, P.: Iberia01: Daily gridded (0.1∘
resolution) dataset of precipitation and temperatures over the Iberian
Peninsula, DIGITAL.CSIC [data set], https://doi.org/10.20350/DIGITALCSIC/8641, http://hdl.handle.net/10261/183071 (last access: 5 March 2022), 2019. a, b
Guttman, N. B.: Accepting the Standardized Precipitation Index: a
calculation algorithm, JAWRA J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 35, 311–322,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb03592.x, 1999. a
Hao, Z. and AghaKouchak, A.: A Nonparametric Multivariate Multi-Index
Drought Monitoring Framework, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 89–101,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0160.1, 2014. a
Hao, Z., AghaKouchak, A., Nakhjiri, N., and Farahmand, A.: Global integrated
drought monitoring and prediction system, Sci. Data, 1, 140001,
https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2014.1, 2014. a
Hernández-Mora, N., Martínez Cortina, L., and Fornés, J.:
Intensive groundwater use in Spain, in: Intensive Use of Groundwater:
Challenges and Opportunities, edited by Llamas, M. and Custodio, E., Swets and Zeitlinger BV, The Netherlands, 387–414, 2003. a
Herrera, S., Cardoso, R. M., Soares, P. M., Espírito-Santo, F., Viterbo, P., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Iberia01: a new gridded dataset of daily precipitation and temperatures over Iberia, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1947–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1947-2019, 2019. a, b
Hervás-Gámez, C. and Delgado-Ramos, F.: Drought Management
Planning Policy: From Europe to Spain, Sustainability, 11, 1862,
https://doi.org/10.3390/su11071862, 2019. a
Hripcsak, G. and Rothschild, A. S.: Agreement, the F-Measure, and
Reliability in Information Retrieval, J. Am. Med. Inf. Assoc., 12,
296–298, https://doi.org/10.1197/jamia.M1733, 2005. a
Iglesias, A., Moneo, M., Garrote, R., and Flores, F.: Drought and climate
risks, in: Water policy in Spain, edited by Garrido, A. and Llamas, R. M., 63–75, CRC Press, Cambridge, 2009. a
Iglesias, E., Garrido, A., and Gomez-Ramos, A.: Evaluation of drought
management in irrigated areas, Agric. Econ., 29, 211–229,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2003.tb00158.x, 2003. a
Instituto Nacional de Estadística: https://www.ine.es/, last access: 5 April 2022a. a
Instituto Nacional de Estadística: Estadística sobre el suministro y saneamiento del agua, Serie
2000–2018, INEbase [data set],
https://www.ine.es/jaxi/Datos.htm?path=/t26/p067/p01/serie/l0/&file=01003.px#!tabs-tabla, last access: 5 April 2022b. a
Instituto Nacional de Estadística: PIB y PIB per cápita, Serie 2000–2020, INEbase [data set],
https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736167628&menu=resultados&idp=1254735576581#, last access: 5 April 2022c. a
Kingston, D. G., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., and Hannah, D. M.:
European-Scale Drought: Understanding Connections between Atmospheric
Circulation and Meteorological Drought Indices, J. Clim., 28, 505–516,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00001.1, 2015. a
Kuhn, M.: Building Predictive Models in R using the caret Package,
CRAN [code], https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v028.i05, 2008. a, b
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Vicente-Serrano, S., López-Moreno, J.,
Beguería, S., García-Ruiz, J., and Cuadrat, J.: The impact of
droughts and water management on various hydrological systems in the
headwaters of the Tagus River (central Spain), J. Hydrol., 386, 13–26,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.01.001, 2010. a
Manzano, A., Clemente, M. A., Morata, A., Luna, M. Y., Beguería, S.,
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., and Martín, M. L.: Analysis of the atmospheric
circulation pattern effects over SPEI drought index in Spain, Atmos.
Res., 230, 104630, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104630, 2019. a
Martin-Vide, J. and Lopez-Bustins, J.-A.: The Western Mediterranean
Oscillation and rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula, Int. J. Climatol.,
26, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1388, 2006. a, b
Martinez‐Artigas, J., Lemus‐Canovas, M., and Lopez‐Bustins, J. A.:
Precipitation in peninsular Spain: Influence of teleconnection indices
and spatial regionalisation, Int. J. Climatol., 41, E1320–E1335, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6770, 2021. a
Mason, S. J. and Graham, N. E.: Areas beneath the relative operating
characteristics (ROC) and relative operating levels (ROL) curves: Statistical
significance and interpretation, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 2145–2166, https://doi.org/10.1256/003590002320603584, 2002. a
Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación: Recurrencia y
Efectos de las Sequías, 2022. a
Ministerio de Medio Ambiente: A Preliminary Assessment of the Impacts
in Spain due to the Effects of Climate Change, 2005. a
Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto
Demográfico: Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio
Climático 2021–2030,
https://www.miteco.gob.es/es/cambio-climatico/temas/impactos-vulnerabilidad-y-adaptacion/plan-nacional-adaptacion-cambio-climatico/default.aspx, (last access: 5 April 2021), 2020. a
Muñoz Sabater, J.: ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1981 to present,
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68d2bb30, 2019. a, b
NOAA Climate Prediction Centre: Climate Indices: Monthly Atmospheric and Ocean Time-Series, Physical Sciences Laboratory [data set], https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/, last access: 2 August 2021a. a
NOAA Climate Prediction Centre: East Atlantic (EA), National Weather Service [data set],
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/ea.shtml, last access: 2 August 2021b. a
Ollero Lara, A., Crespo Vergara, S. I., and Pérez Cimas, M.: Las
sequías y España. La respuesta del seguro agrario a un problema
intermitente, Entidad Estatal de Seguros Agrarios (ENESA), Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación, 2018. a
Páscoa, P., Gouveia, C. M., Russo, A., and Trigo, R. M.: The role of
drought on wheat yield interannual variability in the Iberian Peninsula
from 1929 to 2012, Int. J. Biometeorol., 61, 439–451,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1224-x, 2017. a
Pasho, E., Camarero, J. J., de Luis, M., and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Impacts
of drought at different time scales on forest growth across a wide climatic
gradient in north-eastern Spain, Agric. For. Meteorol., 151, 1800–1811,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.07.018, 2011. a
Peña-Gallardo, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Domínguez-Castro, F., and Beguería, S.: The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215–1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, 2019. a, b
Pozzi, W., Sheffield, J., Stefanski, R., Cripe, D., Pulwarty,
R., Vogt, J. V., Heim Jr., R. R., Brewer, M. J., Svoboda, M., Westerhoff, R., van Dijk, A. I. J. M.,
Lloyd-Hughes, B., Pappenberger, F., Werner, M., Dutra, E., Wetterhall, F., Wagner, W., Schubert, S.,
Mo, K., Nicholson, M., Bettio, L., Nunez, L., van Beek, R., Bierkens, M., de Goncalves, L. G. G., de
Mattos, J. G. Z., and Lawford, R.: Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability: Expanding
International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting, B. Am. Meteorol., 94, 776–785, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00176.1, 2013. a
Ríos-Cornejo, D., Penas, Á., Álvarez-Esteban, R., and del
Río, S.: Links between teleconnection patterns and precipitation in
Spain, Atmos. Res., 156, 14–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.12.012,
2015. a
Rodó, X., Baert, E., and Comín, F. A.: Variations in seasonal
rainfall in Southern Europe during the present century: relationships
with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation, Clim. Dyn., 13, 275–284, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050165, 1997. a
Rossi, G. and Cancelliere, A.: Managing drought risk in water supply systems in Europe: a review, Int. J. Water Resour. Dev., 29, 272–289,
https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2012.713848, 2013. a
Russo, A., Gouveia, C. M., Páscoa, P., DaCamara, C. C., Sousa, P. M., and
Trigo, R. M.: Assessing the role of drought events on wildfires in the
Iberian Peninsula, Agric. For. Meteorol., 237–238, 50–59,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.01.021, 2017. a
Sainz de la Maza, M. and Del Jesús, M.: Análisis de sequías
históricas a través de los impactos derivados, Ingeniería
del agua, 24, 141, https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.2020.12182, 2020. a, b, c
Salvador, C., Nieto, R., Linares, C., Díaz, J., and Gimeno, L.: Short-term
effects of drought on daily mortality in Spain from 2000 to 2009, Environ.
Res., 183, 109200, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109200, 2020. a
Sivakumar, M. V., Motha, R., Wilhite, D., and Wood, D.: Agricultural Drought
Indices. Proceedings of an Expert Meeting, WMO, Murcia, Spain, 2–4 June 2010, 219 pp., 2011. a
Spearman, C.: The Proof and Measurement of Association Between Two
Things., in: Studies in individual differences: The search for
intelligence., edited by Jenkins, J. J. and Paterson, D. G.,
Appleton-Century-Crofts, East Norwalk, 45–58, https://doi.org/10.1037/11491-005, 1961. a
Stahl, K., Kohn, I., Blauhut, V., Urquijo, J., De Stefano, L., Acácio, V., Dias, S., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Kampragou, E., Van Loon, A. F., Barker, L. J., Melsen, L. A., Bifulco, C., Musolino, D., de Carli, A., Massarutto, A., Assimacopoulos, D., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016. a, b
Sutanto, S. J., van der Weert, M., Wanders, N., Blauhut, V., and Van Lanen, H.
A. J.: Moving from drought hazard to impact forecasts, Nat. Commun., 10,
4945, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12840-z, 2019. a, b
Svoboda, M., Fuchs, B. A., Integrated Drought Management Programme, World
Meteorological Organization, Global Water Partnership, University of
Nebraska–Lincoln, and National Drought Mitigation Center: Handbook of
drought indicators and indices,
http://www.droughtmanagement.info/handbook-drought-indicators-and-indices/ (last access: 23 March 2021), 2016. a
Thornthwaite, C. W.: An Approach toward a Rational Classification of
Climate, Geographical Review, 38, 55, https://doi.org/10.2307/210739, 1948. a
Torelló-Sentelles, H.: herminiats/DroughtImpactsSpain: Drought impact links to
meteorological drought indicators and predictability in Spain, Zenodo [data
set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6322803, 2022. a
Van Loon, A. and Laaha, G.: Hydrological drought severity explained by
climate and catchment characteristics, J. Hydrol., 526, 3–14,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.059, 2015. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M. and López-Moreno, J. I.: Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: an evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index in a mountainous Mediterranean basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 523–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-9-523-2005, 2005. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J. I.: A
Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, J. Clim., 23,
1696–1718, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1, 2010. a, b, c
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., López-Moreno, J. I., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Kenawy,
A. E., Azorin-Molina, C., Morán-Tejeda, E., Pasho, E., Zabalza, J.,
Beguería, S., and Angulo-Martínez, M.: The NAO Impact on Droughts in
the Mediterranean Region, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 23–40,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1372-7_3, 2011. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Azorin-Molina, C., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Revuelto, J.,
Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J. I., and Espejo, F.:
Sensitivity of reference evapotranspiration to changes in meteorological
parameters in Spain (1961–2011), Water Resour. Res., 50, 8458–8480,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015427, 2014a. a
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J.-I., Beguería, S.,
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., García-Ruiz, J. M.,
Azorin-Molina, C., Morán-Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R., Coelho,
F., and Espejo, F.: Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by
temperature rise in southern Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 044001,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001, 2014b. a, b
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Azorin-Molina, C., Peña-Gallardo, M., Tomas-Burguera, M., Domínguez-Castro, F., Martín-Hernández, N., Beguería, S., El Kenawy, A., Noguera, I., and García, M.: A high-resolution spatial assessment of the impacts of drought variability on vegetation activity in Spain from 1981 to 2015, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1189–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019, 2019. a
Vide, J. M.: Diez características de la pluviometría española
decisivas en el control de la demanda y el uso del agua, Asoc. de Geogr.
Espanoles, 18, 9–16, 1994. a
Wilhite, D.: Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions, in: Drought: A Global Assessment, edited by: Wilhite, D., Drought Mitigation Center Faculty Publications, London, 3–18 pp.,
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtfacpub/69/ (last access: 5 April 2022), 2000. a
Wilhite, D. A. and Glantz, M. H.: Understanding: the Drought Phenomenon:
The Role of Definitions, Water Int., 10, 111–120,
https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328, 1985. a, b, c
Short summary
Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought...
