Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Aug 2021
Research article |
| 03 Aug 2021
| 03 Aug 2021
Mass balance and hydrological modeling of the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in south-central Norway
Trude Eidhammer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Adam Booth
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Sven Decker
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Michael Barlage
National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
now at: National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA, College Park, MD 20740, USA
David Gochis
National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Roy Rasmussen
National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Kjetil Melvold
Norwegian Water Resource and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway
Atle Nesje
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Stefan Sobolowski
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Related authors
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
August Mikkelsen, Daniel T. McCoy, Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Ci Song, Hamish Gordon, and Isabel L. McCoy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2158, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The largest uncertainty in inferring the magnitude of future warming comes from ambiguity in the strength of cooling in the historical record from aerosols. Aerosols are small liquid and solid particles that are important for cloud formation. The interactions between aerosols and clouds are complex and difficult to observe. In this study, we use surface observations of cloud and precipitation properties to constrain a climate model and interpret causality in complex aerosol-cloud interactions.
Tamara Pletzer, Jonathan P. Conway, Nicolas J. Cullen, Trude Eidhammer, and Marwan Katurji
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a glacier and hydrology model in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) to model the start and duration of melt over a summer in this extreme polar desert. To do so, we found it necessary to prevent the drainage of melt into ice and optimize the albedo scheme. We show that simulating albedo (for the first time in the MDV) is critical to modelling the feedbacks of albedo, snowfall and melt in the region. This paper is a first step towards more complex spatial modelling of melt and streamflow.
Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Jian Sun, Richard Forbes, Zachary McGraw, Jiang Zhu, Trude Storelvmo, and John Dennis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds are a critical part of weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the description of clouds used in several Earth system models. These updates include the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs), changes to the numerical description of precipitation, and a correction to the ice number. There are big improvements in the computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration.
T. Eidhammer, H. Morrison, A. Bansemer, A. Gettelman, and A. J. Heymsfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10103–10118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10103-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10103-2014, 2014
Mette K. Gillespie, Liss M. Andreassen, Matthias Huss, Simon de Villiers, Kamilla H. Sjursen, Jostein Aasen, Jostein Bakke, Jan M. Cederstrøm, Hallgeir Elvehøy, Bjarne Kjøllmoen, Even Loe, Marte Meland, Kjetil Melvold, Sigurd D. Nerhus, Torgeir O. Røthe, Eivind W. N. Støren, Kåre Øst, and Jacob C. Yde
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5799–5825, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5799-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an extensive ice thickness dataset from Jostedalsbreen ice cap that will serve as a baseline for future studies of regional climate-induced change. Results show that Jostedalsbreen currently (~2020) has a maximum ice thickness of ~630 m, a mean ice thickness of 154 ± 22 m and an ice volume of 70.6 ±10.2 km3. Ice of less than 50 m thickness covers two narrow regions of Jostedalsbreen, and the ice cap is likely to separate into three parts in a warming climate.
Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Duncan Watson-Parris, Gregory Elsaesser, Hugh Morrison, Marcus van Lier-Walqui, Ci Song, and Daniel McCoy
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7835–7853, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a dataset where 45 parameters related to cloud processes in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) are perturbed. Three sets of perturbed parameter ensembles (263 members) were created: current climate, preindustrial aerosol loading and future climate with sea surface temperature increased by 4 K.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
August Mikkelsen, Daniel T. McCoy, Trude Eidhammer, Andrew Gettelman, Ci Song, Hamish Gordon, and Isabel L. McCoy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2158, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The largest uncertainty in inferring the magnitude of future warming comes from ambiguity in the strength of cooling in the historical record from aerosols. Aerosols are small liquid and solid particles that are important for cloud formation. The interactions between aerosols and clouds are complex and difficult to observe. In this study, we use surface observations of cloud and precipitation properties to constrain a climate model and interpret causality in complex aerosol-cloud interactions.
Siobhan F. Killingbeck, Anja Rutishauser, Martyn J. Unsworth, Ashley Dubnick, Alison S. Criscitiello, James Killingbeck, Christine F. Dow, Tim Hill, Adam D. Booth, Brittany Main, and Eric Brossier
The Cryosphere, 18, 3699–3722, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A subglacial lake was proposed to exist beneath Devon Ice Cap in the Canadian Arctic based on the analysis of airborne data. Our study presents a new interpretation of the subglacial material beneath the Devon Ice Cap from surface-based geophysical data. We show that there is no evidence of subglacial water, and the subglacial lake has likely been misidentified. Re-evaluation of the airborne data shows that overestimation of a critical processing parameter has likely occurred in prior studies.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, and Mingfang Ting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 985–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-985-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric circulation response to surface heating at various latitudes was investigated within an idealized framework. We confirm previous results on the importance of temperature advection for balancing heating at lower latitudes. Further poleward, transient eddies become increasingly important, and eventually radiative cooling also contributes. This promotes amplified surface warming for high-latitude heating and has implications for links between sea ice loss and polar amplification.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Gokturk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-68, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-68, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We compared extreme precipitations in Norway from convection-permitting models at 3 km resolution (HCLIM3) and regional climate model at 12 km (HCLIM12) and show that the HCLIM3 is more accurate than HCLIM12 in predicting the intense rainfalls that can lead to floods, especially at local scales. This is more clear in hourly extremes than daily. Our research suggests using more detailed climate models could improve forecasts, helping the local society brace for the impacts of extreme weather.
Tamara Pletzer, Jonathan P. Conway, Nicolas J. Cullen, Trude Eidhammer, and Marwan Katurji
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 459–478, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a glacier and hydrology model in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) to model the start and duration of melt over a summer in this extreme polar desert. To do so, we found it necessary to prevent the drainage of melt into ice and optimize the albedo scheme. We show that simulating albedo (for the first time in the MDV) is critical to modelling the feedbacks of albedo, snowfall and melt in the region. This paper is a first step towards more complex spatial modelling of melt and streamflow.
Max Berkelhammer, Gerald F. Page, Frank Zurek, Christopher Still, Mariah S. Carbone, William Talavera, Laura Hildebrand, James Byron, Kyle Inthabandith, Angellica Kucinski, Melissa Carter, Kelsey Foss, Wendy Brown, Rosemary W. H. Carroll, Austin Simonpietri, Marshall Worsham, Ian Breckheimer, Anna Ryken, Reed Maxwell, David Gochis, Mark Raleigh, Eric Small, and Kenneth H. Williams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3063, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Warming in montane systems is affecting the amount of snowmelt inputs. This will affect subalpine forests globally that rely on spring snowmelt to support their water demands. We use a network of sensors across in the Upper Colorado Basin to show that changing spring primarily impacts dense forest stands that have high peak water demands. On the other hand, open forest stands show a higher reliance on summer rain and were minimally sensitive to even historically low snow conditions like 2019.
Cenlin He, Prasanth Valayamkunnath, Michael Barlage, Fei Chen, David Gochis, Ryan Cabell, Tim Schneider, Roy Rasmussen, Guo-Yue Niu, Zong-Liang Yang, Dev Niyogi, and Michael Ek
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5131–5151, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5131-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Noah-MP is one of the most widely used open-source community land surface models in the world, designed for applications ranging from uncoupled land surface and ecohydrological process studies to coupled numerical weather prediction and decadal climate simulations. To facilitate model developments and applications, we modernize Noah-MP by adopting modern Fortran code and data structures and standards, which substantially enhance model modularity, interoperability, and applicability.
Erin Towler, Sydney S. Foks, Aubrey L. Dugger, Jesse E. Dickinson, Hedeff I. Essaid, David Gochis, Roland J. Viger, and Yongxin Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1809–1825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1809-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrologic models developed to assess water availability need to be systematically evaluated. This study evaluates the long-term performance of two high-resolution hydrologic models that simulate streamflow across the contiguous United States. Both models show similar performance overall and regionally, with better performance in minimally disturbed basins than in those impacted by human activity. At about 80 % of the sites, both models outperform the seasonal climatological benchmark.
Sisi Chen, Lulin Xue, Sarah Tessendorf, Kyoko Ikeda, Courtney Weeks, Roy Rasmussen, Melvin Kunkel, Derek Blestrud, Shaun Parkinson, Melinda Meadows, and Nick Dawson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5217–5231, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5217-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5217-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The possible mechanism of effective ice growth in the cloud-top generating cells in winter orographic clouds is explored using a newly developed ultra-high-resolution cloud microphysics model. Simulations demonstrate that a high availability of moisture and liquid water is critical for producing large ice particles. Fluctuations in temperature and moisture down to millimeter scales due to cloud turbulence can substantially affect the growth history of the individual cloud particles.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Grigory Nikulin, and Eleni Katragkou
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1887–1908, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1887-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Africa is listed among the climate change hotspots; hence, accurate climate change information is vital for the optimal preparedness of local communities. In this work we assess the degree to which regional climate models (RCMs) are influenced by the global climate models (GCMs) from which they receive their lateral boundary forcing. We find that although GCMs exert a strong impact on RCMs, RCMs are still able to display substantial improvement relative to the driving GCMs.
Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Katherine Thayer-Calder, Jian Sun, Richard Forbes, Zachary McGraw, Jiang Zhu, Trude Storelvmo, and John Dennis
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1735-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds are a critical part of weather and climate prediction. In this work, we document updates and corrections to the description of clouds used in several Earth system models. These updates include the ability to run the scheme on graphics processing units (GPUs), changes to the numerical description of precipitation, and a correction to the ice number. There are big improvements in the computational performance that can be achieved with GPU acceleration.
Stephen Outten, Camille Li, Martin P. King, Lingling Suo, Peter Y. F. Siew, Hoffman Cheung, Richard Davy, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Tore Furevik, Shengping He, Erica Madonna, Stefan Sobolowski, Thomas Spengler, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 95–114, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-95-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Strong disagreement exists in the scientific community over the role of Arctic sea ice in shaping wintertime Eurasian cooling. The observed Eurasian cooling can arise naturally without sea-ice loss but is expected to be a rare event. We propose a framework that incorporates sea-ice retreat and natural variability as contributing factors. A helpful analogy is of a dice roll that may result in cooling, warming, or anything in between, with sea-ice loss acting to load the dice in favour of cooling.
Wei Li, Jie Chen, Lu Li, Yvan J. Orsolini, Yiheng Xiang, Retish Senan, and Patricia de Rosnay
The Cryosphere, 16, 4985–5000, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow assimilation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may influence seasonal forecasts over this region. To investigate the impacts of snow assimilation on the seasonal forecasts of snow, temperature and precipitation, twin ensemble reforecasts are initialized with and without snow assimilation above 1500 m altitude over the TP for spring and summer in 2018. The results show that snow assimilation can improve seasonal forecasts over the TP through the interaction between land and atmosphere.
Maria Chara Karypidou, Eleni Katragkou, and Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3387–3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3387-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages in the coming decades. Reliable climatic information is therefore necessary for the optimal adaptation of local communities. In this work we show that regional climate models are reliable tools for the simulation of precipitation over southern Africa. However, there is still a great need for the expansion and maintenance of observational data.
Istvan Geresdi, Lulin Xue, Sisi Chen, Youssef Wehbe, Roelof Bruintjes, Jared A. Lee, Roy M. Rasmussen, Wojciech W. Grabowski, Noemi Sarkadi, and Sarah A. Tessendorf
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16143–16159, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16143-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16143-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
By releasing soluble aerosols into the convective clouds, cloud seeding potentially enhances rainfall. The seeding impacts are hard to quantify with observations only. Numerical models that represent the detailed physics of aerosols, cloud and rain formation are used to investigate the seeding impacts on rain enhancement under different natural aerosol backgrounds and using different seeding materials. Our results indicate that seeding may enhance rainfall under certain conditions.
Wei Li, Lu Li, Jie Chen, Qian Lin, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4531–4548, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Reforestation can influence climate, but the sensitivity of summer rainfall to reforestation is rarely investigated. We take two reforestation scenarios to assess the impacts of reforestation on summer rainfall under different reforestation proportions and explore the potential mechanisms. This study concludes that reforestation increases summer rainfall amount and extremes through thermodynamics processes, and the effects are more pronounced in populated areas than over the whole basin.
Youssef Wehbe, Sarah A. Tessendorf, Courtney Weeks, Roelof Bruintjes, Lulin Xue, Roy Rasmussen, Paul Lawson, Sarah Woods, and Marouane Temimi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12543–12560, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12543-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The role of dust aerosols as ice-nucleating particles is well established in the literature, whereas their role as cloud condensation nuclei is less understood, particularly in polluted desert environments. We analyze coincident aerosol size distributions and cloud particle imagery collected over the UAE with a research aircraft. Despite the presence of ultra-giant aerosol sizes associated with dust, an active collision–coalescence process is not observed within the limited depths of warm cloud.
Martin P. King, Camille Li, and Stefan Sobolowski
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 759–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-759-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We re-examine the uncertainty of ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic by considering the November–December and January–February months in the cold season, in addition to the conventional DJF months. This is motivated by previous studies reporting varying teleconnected atmospheric anomalies and the mechanisms concerned. Our results indicate an improved confidence in the patterns of the teleconnection. The finding may also have implications on research in predictability and climate impact.
Wenyan Qi, Jie Chen, Lu Li, Chong-yu Xu, Jingjing Li, Yiheng Xiang, and Shaobo Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-127, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Global hydrological models (GHMs) play important roles in global water resources estimation and it is difficult to obtain parameter values for GHMs. A framework is developed for building GHMs based on parameter regionalization of catchment scale conceptual hydrological models. Four different GHMs established based on this framework can produce reliable streamflow simulations. Over all, it can be used with any conceptual hydrological model even though uncertainty exists in using different models.
Peter Yu Feng Siew, Camille Li, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski, and Martin Peter King
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 261–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss has been linked to changes in mid-latitude weather and climate. However, the literature offers differing views on the strength, robustness, and even existence of these linkages. We use a statistical tool (Causal Effect Networks) to show that one proposed pathway linking Barents–Kara ice and mid-latitude circulation is intermittent in observations and likely only active under certain conditions. This result may help explain apparent inconsistencies across previous studies.
Alex Brisbourne, Bernd Kulessa, Thomas Hudson, Lianne Harrison, Paul Holland, Adrian Luckman, Suzanne Bevan, David Ashmore, Bryn Hubbard, Emma Pearce, James White, Adam Booth, Keith Nicholls, and Andrew Smith
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 887–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-887-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-887-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Melting of the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica may lead to its collapse. To help estimate its lifespan we need to understand how the ocean can circulate beneath. This requires knowledge of the geometry of the sub-shelf cavity. New and existing measurements of seabed depth are integrated to produce a map of the ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf. The observed deep seabed may provide a pathway for circulation of warm ocean water but at the same time reduce rapid tidal melt at a critical location.
Lu Li, Marie Pontoppidan, Stefan Sobolowski, and Alfonso Senatore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 771–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-771-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over mountainous terrain. The calibrated convection-permitting model performs better than the simpler conceptual model. Discharge is slightly more sensitive to spin-up time than precipitation due to the influence of soil moisture. A maximum of 0.5 m of snow is converted to runoff irrespective of the initial snow depth, and this snowmelt contributes to discharge mostly during peak flow period.
Zhe Zhang, Yanping Li, Michael Barlage, Fei Chen, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Andrew Ireson, and Zhenhua Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 655–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-655-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-655-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The groundwater regime in cold regions is strongly impacted by the soil freeze–thaw processes and semiarid climatic conditions. In this paper, we incorporate groundwater dynamics in the Noah-MP land surface model to simulate the water exchange between the unsaturated soil zone and an unconfined aquifer in the Prairie Pothole Region. The water table dynamics are reasonably simulated. The water budget of groundwater aquifer under current and future climate are also investigated.
Siobhan F. Killingbeck, Adam D. Booth, Philip W. Livermore, C. Richard Bates, and Landis J. West
Solid Earth, 11, 75–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-75-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-75-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents MuLTI-TEM, a Bayesian inversion tool for inverting TEM data with independent depth constraints to provide statistical properties and uncertainty analysis of the resistivity profile with depth. MuLTI-TEM is highly versatile, being compatible with most TEM survey designs, ground-based or airborne, along with the depth constraints being provided from any external source. Here, we present an application of MuLTI-TEM to characterise the subglacial water under a Norwegian glacier.
Lu Li, Mingxi Shen, Yukun Hou, Chong-Yu Xu, Arthur F. Lutz, Jie Chen, Sharad K. Jain, Jingjing Li, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1483-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1483-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The study used an integrated glacio-hydrological model for the hydrological projections of the Himalayan Beas basin under climate change. It is very likely that the upper Beas basin will get warmer and wetter in the future. This loss in glacier area will result in a reduction in glacier discharge, while the future changes in total discharge are uncertain. The uncertainty in future hydrological change is not only from GCMs, but also from the bias-correction methods and hydrological modeling.
Benedict T. I. Reinardy, Adam D. Booth, Anna L. C. Hughes, Clare M. Boston, Henning Åkesson, Jostein Bakke, Atle Nesje, Rianne H. Giesen, and Danni M. Pearce
The Cryosphere, 13, 827–843, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-827-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-827-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Cold-ice processes may be widespread within temperate glacier systems but the role of cold-ice processes in temperate glacier systems is relatively unknown. Climate forcing is the main control on glacier mass balance but potential for heterogeneous thermal conditions at temperate glaciers calls for improved model assessments of future evolution of thermal conditions and impacts on glacier dynamics and mass balance. Cold-ice processes need to be included in temperate glacier land system models.
Matteo Colli, Mattia Stagnaro, Luca Lanza, Roy Rasmussen, and Julie M. Thériault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-447, 2018
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Our results provide geoscience scientists, meteorological and hydrological services with an improved method to correct the snow measurements from its main source of uncertainty (the wind-induced undercatch of snow particles). The correction builds upon existing approaches developed during the WMO SPICE program and proposes the use of the snowfall intensity variable. The analysis takes advantage of both field datasets provided by SPICE and results of computational fluid-dynamics simulations.
Cenlin He, Mark G. Flanner, Fei Chen, Michael Barlage, Kuo-Nan Liou, Shichang Kang, Jing Ming, and Yun Qian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11507–11527, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11507-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11507-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Snow albedo plays a key role in the Earth and climate system. It can be affected by impurities and snow properties. This study implements new parameterizations into a widely used snow model to account for effects of snow shape and black carbon–snow mixing state on snow albedo reduction in the Tibetan Plateau. This study points toward an imperative need for extensive measurements and improved model characterization of snow grain shape and aerosol–snow mixing state in Tibet and elsewhere.
John Kochendorfer, Rodica Nitu, Mareile Wolff, Eva Mekis, Roy Rasmussen, Bruce Baker, Michael E. Earle, Audrey Reverdin, Kai Wong, Craig D. Smith, Daqing Yang, Yves-Alain Roulet, Tilden Meyers, Samuel Buisan, Ketil Isaksen, Ragnar Brækkan, Scott Landolt, and Al Jachcik
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1437–1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1437-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1437-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the effects of wind, precipitation gauges typically underestimate the amount of precipitation that occurs as snow. Measurements recorded during a World Meteorological Organization intercomparison of precipitation gauges were used to evaluate and improve the adjustments that are available to address this issue. Adjustments for specific types of precipitation gauges and wind shields were tested and recommended.
Suzanne L. Bevan, Adrian Luckman, Bryn Hubbard, Bernd Kulessa, David Ashmore, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Martin O'Leary, Adam Booth, Heidi Sevestre, and Daniel McGrath
The Cryosphere, 11, 2743–2753, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2743-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2743-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Five 90 m boreholes drilled into an Antarctic Peninsula ice shelf show units of ice that are denser than expected and must have formed from refrozen surface melt which has been buried and transported downstream. We used surface flow speeds and snow accumulation rates to work out where and when these units formed. Results show that, as well as recent surface melt, a period of strong melt occurred during the 18th century. Surface melt is thought to be a factor in causing recent ice-shelf break-up.
Peter Kuipers Munneke, Daniel McGrath, Brooke Medley, Adrian Luckman, Suzanne Bevan, Bernd Kulessa, Daniela Jansen, Adam Booth, Paul Smeets, Bryn Hubbard, David Ashmore, Michiel Van den Broeke, Heidi Sevestre, Konrad Steffen, Andrew Shepherd, and Noel Gourmelen
The Cryosphere, 11, 2411–2426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2411-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
How much snow falls on the Larsen C ice shelf? This is a relevant question, because this ice shelf might collapse sometime this century. To know if and when this could happen, we found out how much snow falls on its surface. This was difficult, because there are only very few measurements. Here, we used data from automatic weather stations, sled-pulled radars, and a climate model to find that melting the annual snowfall produces about 20 cm of water in the NE and over 70 cm in the SW.
Giorgia Verri, Nadia Pinardi, David Gochis, Joseph Tribbia, Antonio Navarra, Giovanni Coppini, and Tomislava Vukicevic
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1741–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, 2017
John Kochendorfer, Rodica Nitu, Mareile Wolff, Eva Mekis, Roy Rasmussen, Bruce Baker, Michael E. Earle, Audrey Reverdin, Kai Wong, Craig D. Smith, Daqing Yang, Yves-Alain Roulet, Samuel Buisan, Timo Laine, Gyuwon Lee, Jose Luis C. Aceituno, Javier Alastrué, Ketil Isaksen, Tilden Meyers, Ragnar Brækkan, Scott Landolt, Al Jachcik, and Antti Poikonen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3525-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation measurements were combined from eight separate precipitation testbeds to create multi-site transfer functions for the correction of unshielded and single-Alter-shielded precipitation gauge measurements. Site-specific errors and more universally applicable corrections were created from these WMO-SPICE measurements. The importance and magnitude of such wind speed corrections were demonstrated.
John Kochendorfer, Roy Rasmussen, Mareile Wolff, Bruce Baker, Mark E. Hall, Tilden Meyers, Scott Landolt, Al Jachcik, Ketil Isaksen, Ragnar Brækkan, and Ronald Leeper
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1973–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1973-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1973-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Snowfall measurements recorded using precipitation gauges are subject to significant underestimation due to the effects of wind. Using measurements recorded at two different precipitation test beds, corrections for unshielded gauges and gauges within different types of windshields were developed and tested. Using the new corrections, uncorrectable errors were quantified, and measurement biases were successfully eliminated.
Liang Chen, Yanping Li, Fei Chen, Alan Barr, Michael Barlage, and Bingcheng Wan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8375–8387, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8375-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8375-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This work is the first time that Noah-MP is used to investigate the impact of parameterizing organic soil at a boreal forest site. Including an organic soil parameterization significantly improved performance of the model in surface energy and hydrology simulations due to the lower thermal conductivity and greater porosity of the organic soil. It substantially modified the partition between direct soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration in the simulation.
X. Cai, Z.-L. Yang, J. B. Fisher, X. Zhang, M. Barlage, and F. Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A terrestrial nitrogen dynamics model is integrated into Noah-MP. The new model performs well in capturing the major nitrogen state/flux variables (e.g., soil nitrate and nitrate leaching). The addition of nitrogen dynamics improves the modeling of net primary productivity and evapotranspiration. This improvement advances the capability of Noah-MP to simultaneously predict weather and water quality.
E. Katragkou, M. García-Díez, R. Vautard, S. Sobolowski, P. Zanis, G. Alexandri, R. M. Cardoso, A. Colette, J. Fernandez, A. Gobiet, K. Goergen, T. Karacostas, S. Knist, S. Mayer, P. M. M. Soares, I. Pytharoulis, I. Tegoulias, A. Tsikerdekis, and D. Jacob
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 603–618, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015, 2015
T. Eidhammer, H. Morrison, A. Bansemer, A. Gettelman, and A. J. Heymsfield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10103–10118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10103-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10103-2014, 2014
J. Ortega, A. Turnipseed, A. B. Guenther, T. G. Karl, D. A. Day, D. Gochis, J. A. Huffman, A. J. Prenni, E. J. T. Levin, S. M. Kreidenweis, P. J. DeMott, Y. Tobo, E. G. Patton, A. Hodzic, Y. Y. Cui, P. C. Harley, R. S. Hornbrook, E. C. Apel, R. K. Monson, A. S. D. Eller, J. P. Greenberg, M. C. Barth, P. Campuzano-Jost, B. B. Palm, J. L. Jimenez, A. C. Aiken, M. K. Dubey, C. Geron, J. Offenberg, M. G. Ryan, P. J. Fornwalt, S. C. Pryor, F. N. Keutsch, J. P. DiGangi, A. W. H. Chan, A. H. Goldstein, G. M. Wolfe, S. Kim, L. Kaser, R. Schnitzhofer, A. Hansel, C. A. Cantrell, R. L. Mauldin, and J. N. Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6345–6367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6345-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6345-2014, 2014
L. Kaser, T. Karl, A. Guenther, M. Graus, R. Schnitzhofer, A. Turnipseed, L. Fischer, P. Harley, M. Madronich, D. Gochis, F. N. Keutsch, and A. Hansel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11935–11947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11935-2013, 2013
J. A. Huffman, A. J. Prenni, P. J. DeMott, C. Pöhlker, R. H. Mason, N. H. Robinson, J. Fröhlich-Nowoisky, Y. Tobo, V. R. Després, E. Garcia, D. J. Gochis, E. Harris, I. Müller-Germann, C. Ruzene, B. Schmer, B. Sinha, D. A. Day, M. O. Andreae, J. L. Jimenez, M. Gallagher, S. M. Kreidenweis, A. K. Bertram, and U. Pöschl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6151–6164, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6151-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6151-2013, 2013
T. R. Duhl, D. Gochis, A. Guenther, S. Ferrenberg, and E. Pendall
Biogeosciences, 10, 483–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-483-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-483-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Observation-driven model for calculating water-harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Review of gridded climate products and their use in hydrological analyses reveals overlaps, gaps, and the need for a more objective approach to selecting model forcing datasets
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell life cycles with a copula-based approach
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Distribution, trends and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom
Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
What Are the Key Soil Hydrological Processes to Control Soil Moisture Memory?
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Leveraging a Disdrometer Network to Develop a Probabilistic Precipitation Phase Model in Eastern Canada
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Central Mediterranean toward groundwater management
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo del Río
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for the social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligate us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting (FH) emerges as a complementary resource in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate FH potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where FH could be a viable water source.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 63 gridded ground (G), satellite (S), and reanalysis (R) climate datasets. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; however, R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, although better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1969, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we present a detailed characterisation of flash drought in United Kingdom over the period 1969–2021.The spatiotemporal distribution of flash droughts is highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought occurrence responds primarily to precipitation variability, although the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) is important as a secondary driver. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions during flash droughts development were also analyzed.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-132, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and The Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Mohammad Ali Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how key hydrological processes enhance soil water retention and release in land surface models, crucial for accurate weather and climate forecasting. Experiments show that soil hydraulics effectively sustain soil moisture. Additionally, allowing surface water ponding and improving soil permeability through macropores both enhance soil moisture persistency in the models.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, Julie M. Thériault, Olivier Chalifour, Fanny Payette, Alexandre Vidal, and Daniel F. Nadeau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-78, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Observations from a study site network in eastern Canada showed a temperature interval the overlapping probabilities for rain, snow or a mix of both. Models using random forest algorithms were developed to classify the precipitation phase using meteorological data to evaluate operational applications. They showed significantly improved phase classification compared to benchmarks, but misclassification led to costlier errors. However, accurate prediction of mixed phase remains a challenge.
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-889, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in certain areas of the Central Mediterranean. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Cited articles
Aas, K. S., Dunse, T., Collier, E., Schuler, T. V., Berntsen, T. K., Kohler,
J., and Luks, B.: The climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers: a 10-year
simulation with a coupled atmosphere–glacier mass balance model, The
Cryosphere, 10, 1089–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1089-2016, 2016.
Andreassen, L., Elvehøy, H., Kjøllmoen, B., and Belart, J.: Glacier
change in Norway since the 1960s – an overview of mass balance, area, length and surface elevation changes, J. Glaciol., 66, 313–328, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.10, 2020.
Andreassen, L. M. and Winsvold, S. H. (Eds.): Inventory of Norwegian glaciers, NVE Report 38, NVE – Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, 236 pp., 2012.
Arnault, J., Rummler, T., Baur, F., Lerch, S., Wagner, S., Fersch, B.,
Zhang, Z., Kerandi, N., Keil, C., and Kunstmann, H.: Precipitation sensitivity to the Uncertainty of Terrestrial Water Flow in WRF-Hydro: An
Ensemble Analysis for Central Europe, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1007–1025,
https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-17-0042.1, 2018.
Ayala, A., Pellicciotti, F., and Shea, J. M.: Modeling 2 m air temperatures
over mountain glaciers: Exploring the influence of katabatic cooling and
external warming, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 3139–3157,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023137, 2015.
Bolch, T., Kulkarni, A., Käaäb, A., Huggel, C., Paul, F., Cogley, J. G., Frey, H., Kargel, J. S., Fujita, K., Scheel, M., Bajracharya, S., and Stoffel, M.: The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers, Science, 336, 310–314, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1215828, 2012.
Bonekamp, P. N. J., de Kok, R. J., Collier, E., and Immerzeel, W. W.:
Contrasting meteorological drivers of the glacier mass balance between the
Karakoram and central Himalaya, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 107, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00107, 2019.
Booth, A. D., Clark, R. A., and Murray, T.: Influences on the resolution of GPR velocity analyses and a Monte Carlo simulation for establishing velocity
precision, Near Surf. Geophys., 9, 399–411, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013AoG64A044, 2011.
Booth, A. D., Mercer, A., Clark, R. A., Murray, T., Jansson, P., and Axtell,
C.: A comparison of seismic and radar methods to establish the thickness and
density of snow cover, Ann. Glaciol., 54, 73–82, https://doi.org/10.3997/1873-0604.2011019, 2013.
Brun, E., Martin, E., Simon, V., Gendre, C., and Coléou, C.: An energy and mass model of snow cover suitable for operational avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol., 35, 333–342, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000009254, 1989.
Brun, E., David, P., Sudul, M., and Brunot, G.: A numerical model to simulate snow-cover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting, J. Glaciol., 38, 13–22, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000009552, 1992.
Brun, E., Martin, E., and Spiridonov, V.: Coupling a multi-layered snow model with a GCM, Ann. Glaciol., 25, 66–72, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500013811, 1997.
Collier, E., Mölg, T., Maussion, F., Scherer, D., Mayer, C., and Bush, A.
B. G.: High-resolution interactive modelling of the mountain glacier–atmosphere interface: an application over the Karakoram, The Cryosphere, 7, 779–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, 2013.
Collier, E., Maussion, F., Nicholson, L. I., Mölg, T., Immerzeel, W. W., and Bush, A. B. G.: Impact of debris cover on glacier ablation and atmosphere–glacier feedbacks in the Karakoram, The Cryosphere, 9, 1617–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1617-2015, 2015.
Eidhammer, T.: WRF-Hydro/Glacier Model, https://staff.ral.ucar.edu/trude/EVOGLAC/NDHMS_glac_fields.tar, last access: 7 July 2021.
Eidhammer, T.: Model Results
https://staff.ral.ucar.edu/trude/EVOGLAC, last access: 7 July 2021b.
Engelhardt, M., Schuler, T. V., and Andreassen, L. M.: Evaluation of gridded
precipitation for Norway using glacier mass-balance measurements, Geograf. Ann. A, 94, 501–509, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0459.2012.00473.x, 2012.
Fersch, B., Senatore, A., Adler, B., Arnault, J., Mauder, M., Schneider, K., Völksch, I., and Kunstmann, H.: High-resolution fully coupled atmospheric–hydrological modeling: a cross-compartment regional water and energy cycle evaluation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2457–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2457-2020, 2020.
Gerbaux, M., Genthon, C., Etchevers, P., Vincent, C., and Dedieu, J.: Surface mass balance of glacier in the French Alps: Distributed modeling sensitivity to climate change, J. Glaciol., 175, 561–572, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756505781829133, 2005.
Gochis, D. J., Yu, W., and Yates, D. N.: The WRF-Hydro Model Technical Description and User's Guide, Version 3.0, NCAR Technical Document, WRF-Hydro 30 User Guide, p. 120, available at:
https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/wrf_hydro/technical-description-user-guide
(last access: 14 June 2021), 2015.
Hall, D. K. and Riggs, G. A.: MODIS/Aqua Snow Cover Daily L3 Global 0.05 Deg CMG, Version 6, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD10C1.006, 2016.
Hines, K. M., Bromwich, D. H., Bai, L.-S., Barlage, M., and Slater, A. G.:
Development and testing of Polar WRF. Part III: Arctic land, J. Climate, 24,
26–48, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3460.1, 2011.
Hong, S.-Y., Noh, Y., and Dudhia, J.: A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2318–2341, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1, 2006.
Iacono, M. J., Jennifer, S. D., Eli, J. M., Mark, W. S., Shepard, A. C., and
William, D. C.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008.
Immerzeel, W., Pellicciotti, F., and Bierkens, M.: Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds, Nat. Geosci., 6, 742–745, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1896, 2013.
Immerzeel, W. W., Beek, L. P. H. V., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Climate change
will affect the Asian water towers, Science, 328, 1382–1385, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1183188, 2010.
Jarosch, A. H., Anslow, F. S., and Clarke, G. K.: High-resolution precipitation and temperature downscaling for glacier models, Clim. Dynam., 38, 391–409, 2012
Jordan, R.: A one-dimensional temperature model for a snow cover, Spec. Rep. 91-16, Cold Reg. Res. and Eng. Lab., US Army Corps of Eng., Hanover, NH, 1991.
Kaser, G., Großhauser, M., and Marzeion, B.: Contribution potential of
glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 20223–20227, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1008162107, 2010.
Kjøllmoen, B. (Ed.), Andreassen, L. M., Elvehøy, H., Jackson, M.,
Kjøllmoen, B., and Giesen, R. H.: Glaciological investigations in Norway 2011–2015, NVE Report 88/2016, NCR, Oslo, Norway, 171 pp., 2016
Kjøllmoen, B. (Ed.), Andreassen, L. M., Elvehøy, H., Jackson, M.,
Melvold, K., and Kjøllmoen, B.: Glaciological investigations in Norway in 2016, NVE Report 76/2017,NCR, Oslo, Norway, 95 pp., 2017.
Kjøllmoen, B. (Ed.), Andreassen, L. M., Elvehøy, H., and Jackson, M.:
Glaciological investigations in Norway in 2017, NVE Report 82/2018,
NCR, Oslo, Norway, 84 pp., 2018.
Kjøllmoen, B. (Ed.), Andreassen, L. M., Elvehøy, H., and Jackson, M.:
Glaciological investigations in Norway in 2018, NVE Report 46/2019, NCR, Oslo, Norway,, 84 pp., 2019.
Kotlarski, S., Paul, F., and Jacob, D.: Forcing a distributed glacier mass
balance model with the regional climate model REMO. Part I: climate model
evaluation, J. Climate, 23, 1589–1606, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2711.1, 2010a.
Kotlarski, S., Jacob, D., Podzun, R., and Paul, F.: Representing glaciers in a regional climate model, Clim. Dynam., 34, 27–46, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0685-6, 2010b.
Laghari, J.: Climate change: Melting glaciers bring energy uncertainty, Nature, 502, 617–618, https://doi.org/10.1038/502617a, 2013.
Li, L., Gochis, D. J., Sobolowski, S., and Mesquita, M. D. S.: Evaluating the
present annual water budget of a Himalayan headwater river basin using a
high-resolution atmosphere-hydrology model, J. Geophys. Res., 122, 4786–4807, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026279, 2017.
Liston, G. and Sturm, M.: A snow-transport model for complex terrain, J. Glaciol., 44, 498–516, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000002021, 1998.
Liu, C., Ikeda, K., Rasmussen, R., Barlage, M., Newman, A. J., Prein, A. F., Chen, F., Chen, L., Clark, M., Dai, A., Dudhia, J., Eidhammer, T., Gochis, D., Gutmann, E., Kurkute, S., Li, Y., Thompson, G., and Yates, D.: Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America, Clim. Dynam., 49, 71–95, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3327-9, 2017.
Lundquist, J., Hughes, M., Gutmann, E., and Kapnick, S.: Our skill in modeling mountain rain and snow is bypassing the skill of our observational
networks, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 2473–2490, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0001.1, 2019.
Machguth, H., Paul, F., Kotlarski, S., and Hoelzle, M.: Calculating distributed glacier mass balance for the Swiss Alps from regional climate
model output: a methodical description and interpretation of the results, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011775, 2009.
Melvold, K., Laumann, T., and Nesje, A.: Kupert landskap under
Hardangerjøkulen [Online], GEO, Norge, available at:
http://www.geoforskning.no/reportasjene/38-kupert-landskap-under-hardangerjokulen
(last access: 14 June 2021), 2011.
Mölders, N. and Kramm, G.: A case study on wintertime inversions in Interior Alaska with WRF, Atmos. Res., 95, 314–332,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.06.002, 2010.
Mölg, T. and Kaser, G.: A new approach to resolving climate–cryosphere
relations: downscaling climate dynamics to glacier-scale mass and energy
balance without statistical scale linking, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D16101,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015669, 2011.
Niu, G. Y., Yang, Z. L., Mitchell, K. E., Chen, F., Ek, M. B., Barlage, M.,
Kumar, A., Manning, K., Niyogi, D., Rosero, E., Tewari, M., and Xia, Y.: The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015139, 2011.
Quéno, L., Vionnet, V., Dombrowski-Etchevers, I., Lafaysse, M., Dumont,
M., and Karbou, F.: Snowpack modelling in the Pyrenees driven by kilometric-resolution meteorological forecasts, The Cryosphere, 10, 1571–1589, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1571-2016, 2016.
Rasmussen, R., Baker, B., Kochendorfer, J., Meyers, T., Landolt, S., Fischer, A. P., Black, J., Thriault, J. M., Kucera, P., Gochis, D., Smith, C., Nitu, R., Hall, M., Ikeda, K., and Gutmann, E.: How well are we measuring snow: the NOAA/FAA/NCAR winter precipitation test bed, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 811–829, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00052.1, 2012.
Réveillet, M., Six, D., Vincent, C., Rabatel, A., Dumont, M., Lafaysse, M., Morin, S., Vionnet, V., and Litt, M.: Relative performance of empirical and physical models in as- sessing the seasonal and annual glacier surface mass balance of Saint-Sorlin Glacier (French Alps), The Cryosphere, 12,
1367–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1367-2018, 2018.
Revuelto, J., Vionnet, V., López-Moreno, J.-I., Lafaysse, M., and Morin,
S.: Combining snowpack modeling and terrestrial laser scanner observations
improves the simulation of small scale snow dynamics, J. Hydrol., 533, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.12.015, 2016.
Rummler, T., Arnault, J., Gochis, D., and Kunstmann, H.: Role of Lateral
Terrestrial Water Flow on the Regional Water Cycle in a ComplexTerrain Region: Investigation With a Fully Coupled Model System, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 507–529, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd029004, 2019.
Senatore, A., Mendicino, G., Gochis, D. J., Yu, W., Yates, D. N., and Kunstmann, H.: Fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations for the
central Mediterranean: Impact of enhanced hydrological parameterization for
short and long time scales, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 7, 1693–1715,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000510, 2015.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhi, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda,
M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3, Technical Report 113, Tech. Note, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 2008.
Smith, C. D., Ross, A., Kochendorfer, J., Earle, M. E., Wolff, M., Buisán, S., Roulet, Y., and Laine, T.: The Post-SPICE (2015/2016 and 2016/2017) Winter Precipitation Intercomparison Data, PANGAEA,
https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.907379, 2019.
Smith, C. D., Ross, A., Kochendorfer, J., Earle, M. E., Wolff, M., Buisán, S., Roulet, Y.-A., and Laine, T.: Evaluation of the WMO Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE) transfer functions for
adjusting the wind bias in solid precipitation measurements, Hydrol. Earth
Syst. Sci., 24, 4025–4043, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4025-2020, 2020.
Smith, R. B. and Barstad, I.: A Linear Theory of Orographic Precipitation, J.
Atmos. Sci., 61, 1377–1391, 2004.
Sorg, A., Bolch, T., Stoffel, M., Solomina, O., and Beniston, M.: Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia), Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 725–731, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1592, 2012.
Thompson, G. and Eidhammer, T.: A study of aerosol impacts on clouds and
precipitation development in a large winter cyclone, J. Atmos. Sci., 71,
3636–3658, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0305.1, 2014.
van Pelt, W. J. J., Oerlemans, J., Reijmer, C. H., Pohjola, V. A., Pettersson, R., and van Angelen, J. H.: Simulating melt, runoff and refreezing on Nordenskiöldbreen, Svalbard, using a coupled snow and energy balance model, The Cryosphere, 6, 641–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-641-2012, 2012.
Vionnet, V., Brun, E., Morin, S., Boone, A., Faroux, S., Le Moigne, P., Martin, E., and Willemet, J.-M.: The detailed snowpack scheme Crocus and its implementation in SURFEX v7.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 773–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-773-2012, 2012.
Vionnet, V., Six, D., Auger, L., Dumont, M., Lafaysse, M., Quéno, L.,
Réveillet, M., Dombrowski-Etchevers, I., Thibert, E., and Vincent, C.:
Sub-kilometer Precipitation Datasets for Snowpack and Glacier Modeling in
Alpine Terrain, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 182, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00182,
2019.
Yucel, I., Onen, A., Yilmaz, K. K., and Gochis, D. J.: Calibration and
evaluation of a flood forecasting system: Utility of numerical weather prediction model, data assimilation and satellite-based rainfall, J. Hydrol., 523, 49–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.042, 2015.
Short summary
We coupled a detailed snow–ice model (Crocus) to represent glaciers in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model and tested it on a well-studied glacier. Several observational systems were used to evaluate the system, i.e., satellites, ground-penetrating radar (used over the glacier for snow depth) and stake observations for glacier mass balance and discharge measurements in rivers from the glacier. Results showed improvements in the streamflow projections when including the model.
We coupled a detailed snow–ice model (Crocus) to represent glaciers in the Weather Research and...
