Articles | Volume 24, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 May 2020
Research article |
| 26 May 2020
| 26 May 2020
Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method
Els Van Uytven
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark 40, box 2448, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
Jan De Niel
Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark 40, box 2448, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
Patrick Willems
Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark 40, box 2448, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Related authors
Syed M. Touhidul Mustafa, M. Moudud Hasan, Ajoy Kumar Saha, Rahena Parvin Rannu, Els Van Uytven, Patrick Willems, and Marijke Huysmans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2279–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the effect of conceptual hydro(geo)logical model (CHM) structure, climate change and groundwater abstraction on future groundwater-level prediction uncertainty. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, groundwater level is predicted to decline quickly. Groundwater abstraction in NW Bangladesh should decrease by 60 % to ensure sustainable use. Abstraction scenarios are the dominant uncertainty source, followed by CHM uncertainty and climate model uncertainty.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Karen Gabriels, Patrick Willems, and Jos Van Orshoven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 395–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-395-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As land use influences hydrological processes (e.g., forests have a high water retention and infiltration capacity), it also impacts floods downstream in the river system. This paper demonstrates an approach quantifying the impact of land use changes on economic flood damages: damages in an initial situation are quantified and compared to damages of simulated floods associated with a land use change scenario. This approach can be used as an explorative tool in sustainable flood risk management.
Hossein Tabari, Santiago Mendoza Paz, Daan Buekenhout, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3493–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3493-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3493-2021, 2021
Bertold Mariën, Inge Dox, Hans J. De Boeck, Patrick Willems, Sebastien Leys, Dimitri Papadimitriou, and Matteo Campioli
Biogeosciences, 18, 3309–3330, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3309-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The drivers of the onset of autumn leaf senescence for several deciduous tree species are still unclear. Therefore, we addressed (i) if drought impacts the timing of autumn leaf senescence and (ii) if the relationship between drought and autumn leaf senescence depends on the tree species. Our study suggests that the timing of autumn leaf senescence is conservative across years and species and even independent of drought stress.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1069-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Benjamin Campforts, Veerle Vanacker, Frédéric Herman, Matthias Vanmaercke, Wolfgang Schwanghart, Gustavo E. Tenorio, Patrick Willems, and Gerard Govers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 447–470, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-447-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this contribution, we explore the spatial determinants of bedrock river incision in the tropical Andes. The model results illustrate the problem of confounding between climatic and lithological variables, such as rock strength. Incorporating rock strength explicitly into river incision models strongly improves the explanatory power of all tested models and enables us to clarify the role of rainfall variability in controlling river incision rates.
Syed M. Touhidul Mustafa, M. Moudud Hasan, Ajoy Kumar Saha, Rahena Parvin Rannu, Els Van Uytven, Patrick Willems, and Marijke Huysmans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2279–2303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2279-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates the effect of conceptual hydro(geo)logical model (CHM) structure, climate change and groundwater abstraction on future groundwater-level prediction uncertainty. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, groundwater level is predicted to decline quickly. Groundwater abstraction in NW Bangladesh should decrease by 60 % to ensure sustainable use. Abstraction scenarios are the dominant uncertainty source, followed by CHM uncertainty and climate model uncertainty.
Jan De Niel and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-871-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-871-2019, 2019
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-380-3-2018, 2018
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5735-2018, 2018
Edouard Goudenhoofdt, Laurent Delobbe, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5385–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5385-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5385-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the characteristics of extreme precipitation is useful for flood management applications like sewer system design. The potential of a 12-year high-quality weather radar precipitation dataset is investigated by comparison with rain gauges. Despite known limitations, a good agreement is found between the radar and the rain gauges. Using the radar data allow us to reduce the uncertainty of the extreme value analysis, especially for short duration extremes related to thunderstorms.
Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, Susana Ochoa-Rodriguez, Patrick Willems, Abdellah Ichiba, Li-Pen Wang, Rui Pina, Johan Van Assel, Guendalina Bruni, Damian Murla Tuyls, and Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2361–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2361-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2361-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Data from 10 urban or peri-urban catchments located in five EU countries are used to analyze the imperviousness distribution and sewer network geometry. Consistent scale invariant features are retrieved for both (fractal dimensions can be defined), which enables to define a level of urbanization. Imperviousness representation in operational model is also found to exhibit scale-invariant features (even multifractality). The research was carried out as part of the UE INTERREG IV RainGain project.
Tanja de Boer-Euser, Laurène Bouaziz, Jan De Niel, Claudia Brauer, Benjamin Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Fabrizio Fenicia, Benjamin Grelier, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Hubert Savenije, Guillaume Thirel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 423–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-423-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the rainfall–runoff models of eight international research groups were compared for a set of subcatchments of the Meuse basin to investigate the influence of certain model components on the modelled discharge. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics, clear differences could be observed for specific events. The differences during drier conditions could indeed be linked to differences in model structures.
Hossein Tabari, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Sajjad Saeed, Erwan Brisson, Nicole Van Lipzig, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3843–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016, 2016
Vincent Wolfs, Quan Tran Quoc, and Patrick Willems
Proc. IAHS, 373, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-1-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Water management is constantly evolving. Trends, such as population growth, urbanization and climate change, pose new challenges to water management. We developed a new and flexible modelling approach to generate very fast models of catchment hydrology, rivers and sewer systems that can be tailored to numerous applications in water management. To illustrate the developed framework, a case study of integrated hydrological-hydraulic modelling for the Grote Nete catchment in Belgium is elaborated.
C. Onyutha and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12167-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12167-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate the possible change in catchment behavior, which may interfere with the flow-rainfall relationship, three rainfall-runoff models were applied to the main catchments of the Nile Basin in Africa based on inputs covering the period from 1940 to 2003. There was close agreement between the changes in the observed and simulated overland flow from all the models. Thus, change in catchment behavior due to anthropogenic influence in the Nile basin over the selected time period was minimal.
L.-P. Wang, S. Ochoa-Rodríguez, C. Onof, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4001–4021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4001-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4001-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new methodology is proposed in this paper, focusing on improving the applicability of the operational weather radar data to urban hydrology with rain gauge data. The proposed methodology employed a simple yet effective technique to extract additional information (called local singularity structure) from radar data, which was generally ignored in related works. The associated improvement can be particularly seen in capturing storm peak magnitudes, which is critical for urban applications.
C. Onyutha and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2227–2246, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2227-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2227-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin was found linked to the large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions. This finding is vital for a number of water management and planning aspects. To give just one example, it may help in obtaining improved quantiles for flood or drought/water scarcity risk management. This is especially important under conditions of (1) questionable data quality, and (2) data scarcity. These conditions are typical of the Nile Basin and inevitably need to be addressed.
M. A. Sunyer, Y. Hundecha, D. Lawrence, H. Madsen, P. Willems, M. Martinkova, K. Vormoor, G. Bürger, M. Hanel, J. Kriaučiūnienė, A. Loukas, M. Osuch, and I. Yücel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, 2015
A. Ochoa, L. Pineda, P. Crespo, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3179–3193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3179-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3179-2014, 2014
D. Vrebos, T. Vansteenkiste, J. Staes, P. Willems, and P. Meire
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1119–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1119-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1119-2014, 2014
D. E. Mora, L. Campozano, F. Cisneros, G. Wyseure, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 631–648, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-631-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-631-2014, 2014
M. T. Taye and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-7857-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-7857-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change on the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: A reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely-sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
Pan evaporation is increased by submerged macrophytes
Evaluation of water flux predictive models developed using eddy-covariance observations and machine learning: a meta-analysis
Characterizing basin-scale precipitation gradients in the Third Pole region using a high-resolution atmospheric simulation-based dataset
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a thorough historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Amy Charlotte Green, Chris G. Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well at generating realistic weather radar images visually, for a large range of event types.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings revealed runoff generation is dominated by rainfall runoff in the YZ, and the largest glacier runoff contribution is in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff trends indicate an increase in the NX but a decrease in the NX-BXK for 1971–2020, due to contrasting precipitation changes. Total runoff across the sub-basins will consistently increase through the 21st century, mostly resulting from increased rainfall runoff.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flows months in advance is crucial for many water sectors and society. In N. America, snowmelt is a key driver of river flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flows months ahead in N. American snow-fed rivers. Variations in predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future river flow predictability amid a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely-sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach which is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, and to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212), as well as to remotely-sensed satellite estimates.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Brigitta Simon-Gáspár, Gábor Soós, and Angela Anda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, it is extremely important to determine evaporation as accurately as possible. In nature, there are sediments and macrophytes in the open waters; thus, one of the aims was to investigate their effect on evaporation. The second aim of this paper was to estimate daily evaporation by using different models, which, according to results, have high priority in the evaporation prediction. Water management can obtain useful information from the results of the current research.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Mingjuan Xie, Chen Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yuangang Wang, Xiuliang Yuan, Xiaofei Ma, Wenqiang Zhang, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4603–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There have been many machine learning simulation studies based on eddy-covariance observations for water flux and evapotranspiration. We performed a meta-analysis of such studies to clarify the impact of different algorithms and predictors, etc., on the reported prediction accuracy. It can, to some extent, guide future global water flux modeling studies and help us better understand the terrestrial ecosystem water cycle.
Yaozhi Jiang, Kun Yang, Hua Yang, Hui Lu, Yingying Chen, Xu Zhou, Jing Sun, Yuan Yang, and Yan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4587–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study quantified the altitudinal precipitation gradients (PGs) over the Third Pole (TP). Most sub-basins in the TP have positive PGs, and negative PGs are found in the Himalayas, the Hengduan Mountains and the western Kunlun. PGs are positively correlated with wind speed but negatively correlated with relative humidity. In addition, PGs tend to be positive at smaller spatial scales compared to those at larger scales. The findings can assist precipitation interpolation in the data-sparse TP.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Cited articles
Addor, N., Rohrer, M., Furrer, R., and Seibert, J.: Propagation of biases in
climate models from the synoptic to the regional scale: Implications for bias
adjustment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 2075–2089,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024040, 2016. a
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Increasing flood risk under
climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation
strategies, Climatic Change, 136, 507–521, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1641-1,
2016. a
Ansell, T. J., Jones, P. D., Allan, R. J., Lister, D., Parker, D. E., Brunet,
M., Moberg, A., Jacobeit, J., Brohan, P., Rayner, N. A., Aguilar, E.,
Alexandersson, H., Barriendos, M., Brandsma, T., Cox, N. J., Della-Marta,
P. M., Drebs, A., Founda, D., Gerstengarbe, F., Hickey, K., Jónsson,
T., Luterbacher, J., Nordli, Ø., Oesterle, H., Petrakis, M., Philipp, A.,
Rodwell, M. J., Saladie, O., Sigro, J., Slonosky, V., Srnec, L., Swail, V.,
García-Suárez, A. M., Tuomenvirta, H., Wang, X., Wanner, H.,
Werner, P., Wheeler, D., and Xoplaki, E.: Daily mean sea level pressure
reconstructions for the European-North Atlantic region for the period
1850–2003, J. Climate, 19, 2717–2742, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3775.1,
2006 (data available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/emslp/, last access: 10 May 2020). a, b
Anstey, J. A., Davini, P., Gray, L. J., Woollings, T. J., Butchart, N.,
Cagnazzo, C., Christiansen, B., Hardiman, S. C., Osprey, S. M., and Yang, S.:
Multi-model analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: Model biases and
the role of resolution, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118,
3956–3971, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50231, 2013. a, b
Arakawa, A.: The Cumulus Parameterization Problem: Past, Present, and Future,
J. Climate, 17, 2493–2525,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2493:RATCPP>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Åström, H. L., Sunyer, M., Madsen, H., Rosbjerg, D., and
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.: Explanatory analysis of the relationship between
atmospheric circulation and occurrence of flood-generating events in a
coastal city, Hydrol. Process., 30, 2773–2788,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10767, 2016. a, b
Barbero, R., Westra, S., Lenderink, G., and Fowler, H. J.: Temperature-extreme
precipitation scaling: a two-way causality?, Int. J.
Climatol., 38, e1274–e1279, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5370, 2018. a
Barnes, E. A. and Screen, J. A.: The impact of Arctic warming on the
midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?, WIRES: Climate Change, 6, 277–286, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.337, 2015. a
Benestad, R. E., Hanssen-Bauer, I., and Chen, D.: Empirical-Statistical
Downscaling, WORLD SCIENTIFIC, https://doi.org/10.1142/6908, 2008. a
Blenkinsop, S., Fowler, H. J., Barbero, R., Chan, S. C., Guerreiro, S. B., Kendon, E., Lenderink, G., Lewis, E., Li, X.-F., Westra, S., Alexander, L., Allan, R. P., Berg, P., Dunn, R. J. H., Ekström, M., Evans, J. P., Holland, G., Jones, R., Kjellström, E., Klein-Tank, A., Lettenmaier, D., Mishra, V., Prein, A. F., Sheffield, J., and Tye, M. R.: The INTENSE project: using observations and models to understand the past, present and future of sub-daily rainfall extremes, Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, 2018. a
Brekke, L. D., Maurer, E. P., Anderson, J. D., Dettinger, M. D., Townsley,
E. S., Harrison, A., and Pruitt, T.: Assessing reservoir operations risk
under climate change, Water Resour. Res., 45, 1–16,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006941, 2009. a
Brisson, E., Demuzere, M., Kwakernaak, B., and Van Lipzig, N. P.: Relations between atmospheric circulation and precipitation in Belgium, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 111, 27–39, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-010-0103-y, 2011. a
Bürger, G., Murdock, T. Q., Werner, A. T., Sobie, S. R., and Cannon, A. J.:
Downscaling Extremes – An Intercomparison of Multiple Statistical Methods for Present Climate, J. Climate, 25, 4366–4388,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00408.1, 2012. a
Casanueva, A., Herrera, S., Fernández, J., and Gutiérrez, J. M.:
Towards a fair comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling in the
framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative, Climatic Change, 137, 411–426,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1683-4, 2016. a
Cristiano, E., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., Gaitan, S., Ochoa Rodriguez, S., and van de Giesen, N.: Critical scales to explain urban hydrological response: an application in Cranbrook, London, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2425–2447, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2425-2018, 2018. a
Davini, P., Corti, S., D'Andrea, F., Rivière, G., and von Hardenberg, J.:
Improved Winter European Atmospheric Blocking Frequencies in High-Resolution
Global Climate Simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst.,
9, 2615–2634, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001082, 2017. a
Demuzere, M., Werner, M., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Roeckner, E.: An analysis
of present and future ECHAM5 pressure fields using a classification of
circulation patterns, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1796–1810,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1821, 2009. a
De Niel, J., Demarée, G., and Willems, P.: Weather Typing-Based Flood
Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500
Years Along the Meuse River, Water Resour. Res., 53, 8459–8474,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020803, 2017. a
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in climate
change projections: The role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38,
527–546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x, 2012. a
De Troch, R.: The application of the ALARO-0 model for regional climate
modeling in Belgium: extreme precipitation and unfavorable conditions for
the dispersion of air pollutants under present and future climate conditions,
available at: https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/7247081 (last access: 10 May 2020), 2016. a
Dixon, K. W., Lanzante, J. R., Nath, M. J., Hayhoe, K., Stoner, A.,
Radhakrishnan, A., Balaji, V., and Gaitán, C. F.: Evaluating the
stationarity assumption in statistically downscaled climate projections: is
past performance an indicator of future results?, Climatic Change, 135,
395–408, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1598-0, 2016. a, b
Dottori, F., Szewczyk, W., Ciscar, J.-C., Zhao, F., Alfieri, L., Hirabayashi,
Y., Bianchi, A., Mongelli, I., Frieler, K., Betts, R., and Feyen, L.:
Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic
warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 781–786, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z, 2018. a
Ehret, U., Zehe, E., Wulfmeyer, V., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Liebert, J.: HESS Opinions “Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?”, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3391–3404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3391-2012, 2012. a
Emori, S. and Brown, S. J.: Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and
extreme precipitation under changed climate, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
32, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272, 2005. a
Fadhel, S., Rico-Ramirez, M. A., and Han, D.: Uncertainty of
Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves due to varied climate baseline
periods, J. Hydrol., 547, 600–612,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.02.013, 2017. a
Flaounas, E., Drobinski, P., Vrac, M., Bastin, S., Lebeaupin-Brossier, C.,
Stéfanon, M., Borga, M., and Calvet, J. C.: Precipitation and
temperature space-time variability and extremes in the Mediterranean region:
Evaluation of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods, Clim.
Dynam., 40, 2687–2705, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1558-y, 2013. a
Fu, G., Charles, S. P., Chiew, F. H., Ekström, M., and Potter, N. J.:
Uncertainties of statistical downscaling from predictor selection:
Equifinality and transferability, Atmos. Res., 203, 130–140,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.12.008, 2018. a, b
Gutmann, E., Pruitt, T., Clark, M. P., Brekke, L., Arnold, J. R., Raff, D. A.,
and Rasmussen, R. M.: An intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods
used for water resource assessments in the United States, Water Resour.
Res., 50, 7167–7186, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015559, 2014. a
Haberlandt, U., Belli, A., and Bárdossy, A.: Statistical downscaling of
precipitation using a stochastic rainfall model conditioned on circulation
patterns – an evaluation of assumptions, Int. J.
Climatol., 35, 417–432, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3989, 2015. a
Hartung, K., Svensson, G., and Kjellström, E.: Resolution, physics and
atmosphere–ocean interaction – How do they influence climate model
representation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking?, Tellus A, 69, 1406252,
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1406252, 2017. a
Hertig, E., Merkenschlager, C., and Jacobeit, J.: Change points in
predictors–predictand relationships within the scope of statistical
downscaling, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 1619–1633,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4801, 2017. a
Hertig, E., Maraun, D., Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Vrac, M., Mares, I.,
Gutiérrez, J. M., Wibig, J., Casanueva, A., and Soares, P. M. M.:
Comparison of statistical downscaling methods with respect to extreme events
over Europe: Validation results from the perfect predictor experiment of the
COST Action VALUE, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 3846–3867,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5469, 2018. a
Hewitson, B. C., Daron, J., Crane, R. G., Zermoglio, M. F., and Jack, C.:
Interrogating empirical-statistical downscaling, Climatic Change, 122,
539–554, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1021-z, 2014. a
Horton, P. and Brönnimann, S.: Impact of global atmospheric reanalyses
on statistical precipitation downscaling, Clim. Dynam., 52, 5189–5211,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4442-6, 2018. a
Jenkinson, A. and Collison, F.: An initial climatology of gales over the North Sea, Synoptic Climatology Branch Memorandum, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, UK, 62, 1977. a
Jones, P. D., Hulme, M., and Briffa, K. R.: A comparison of Lamb circulation
types with an objective classification scheme, Int. J.
Climatol., 13, 655–663, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370130606, 1993. a
Jury, M. W., Herrera, S., Gutiérrez, J. M., and Barriopedro, D.:
Blocking representation in the ERA-Interim driven EURO-CORDEX RCMs, Clim.
Dynam., 52, 3291–3306, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4335-8, 2018. a
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L.,
Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M.,
Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang,
J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR
40-Year Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc.,
77, 437–472, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, 1996 (data available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html, last access: 10 May 2020). a, b
Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014. a
Kröner, N.: Identifying and quantifying large-scale drivers of European
climate change, ETH Zürich, https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-010793497,
2016. a
Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Fischer, E., Lüthi, D., Zubler, E., and
Schär, C.: Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic,
lapse-rate and circulation effects: theory and application to the European
summer climate, Clim. Dynam., 48, 3425–3440,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3276-3, 2017. a
Lanzante, J. R., Dixon, K. W., Nath, M. J., Whitlock, C. E., and Adams-Smith,
D.: Some Pitfalls in Statistical Downscaling of Future Climate, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 791–803,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0046.1, 2018. a
Lenderink, G. and van Meijgaard, E.: Increase in hourly precipitation
extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes, Nat. Geosci., 1, 511–514, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo262, 2008. a
Lenderink, G., Barbero, R., Loriaux, J. M., and Fowler, H. J.:
Super-Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly convective precipitation
and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions, J. Climate,
30, 6037–6052, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0808.1, 2017. a
Le Roux, R., Katurji, M., Zawar-Reza, P., Quénol, H., and Sturman, A.:
Comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling results from the WRF
model, Environ. Modell. Softw., 100, 67–73,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.11.002, 2018. a
Li, J., Johnson, F., Evans, J., and Sharma, A.: A comparison of methods to
estimate future sub-daily design rainfall, Adv. Water Resour., 110,
215–227, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.10.020, 2017. a
Manola, I., van den Hurk, B., De Moel, H., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3777–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Maraun, D.: Bias Correcting Climate Change Simulations – a Critical Review, Current Climate Change Reports, 2, 211–220, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x, 2016. a
Maraun, D. and Widmann, M.: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for
Climate Research, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781107588783,
2018. a, b, c
Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. J., Widmann, M.,
Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themeßl, M., Venema, V. K. C.,
Chun, K. P., Goodess, C. M., Jones, R. G., Onof, C., Vrac, M., and
Thiele-Eich, I.: Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent
developements to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user,
Rev. Geophys., 48, 1–38, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009RG000314,
2010. a, b, c
Maraun, D., Widmann, M., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Statistical downscaling
skill under present climate conditions: A synthesis of the VALUE perfect
predictor experiment, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 3692–3703,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5877, 2018. a
Mehrotra, R. and Sharma, A.: A Resampling Approach for Correcting Systematic
Spatiotemporal Biases for Multiple Variables in a Changing Climate, Water
Resour. Res., 55, 754–770, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023270, 2019. a, b
Mendoza, P. A., Mizukami, N., Ikeda, K., Clark, M. P., Gutmann, E. D., Arnold,
J. R., Brekke, L. D., and Rajagopalan, B.: Effects of different regional
climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes,
J. Hydrol., 541, 1003–1019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.010,
2016. a
Merkenschlager, C., Hertig, E., and Jacobeit, J.: Non-stationarities in the
relationships of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area and the
large-scale circulation in the second half of the 20th century, Global
Planet. Change, 151, 108–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.009,
2017. a
Ntegeka, V. and Willems, P.: Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall
extremes, based on a more than 100-year time series of 10 min rainfall
intensities at Uccle, Belgium, Water Resour. Res., 44, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006471, 2008. a, b
Otero, N., Sillmann, J., and Butler, T.: Assessment of an extended version of the Jenkinson–Collison classification on CMIP5 models over Europe, Clim. Dynam., 50, 1559–1579, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3705-y, 2018. a, b, c
Philipp, A., Beck, C., Huth, R., and Jacobeit, J.: Development and comparison of circulation type classifications using the COST 733 dataset and software, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 2673–2691, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3920,
2016. a
Pithan, F., Shepherd, T. G., Zappa, G., and Sandu, I.: Climate model biases in
jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic
drag, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7231–7240,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069551, 2016. a
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K.,
Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S.,
Schmidli, J., Van Lipzig, N. P., and Leung, R.: A review on regional
convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and
challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475,
2015. a
Roberts, D. R., Wood, W. H., and Marshall, S. J.: Assessments of downscaled
climate data with a high-resolution weather station network, Int.
J. Climatol., 39, 3091–3103, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6005, 2019. a
Rybka, H. and Tost, H.: Uncertainties in future climate predictions due to convection parameterisations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5561–5576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5561-2014, 2014. a
Sachindra, D. A., Ahmed, K., Shahid, S., and Perera, B. J. C.: Cautionary note on the use of genetic programming in statistical downscaling, Int.
J. Climatol., 38, 3449–3465, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5508, 2018. a
Salvadore, E., Bronders, J., and Batelaan, O.: Hydrological modelling of
urbanized catchments: A review and future directions, J. Hydrol.,
529, 62–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.028, 2015. a
Salvi, K., Ghosh, S., and Ganguly, A. R.: Credibility of statistical
downscaling under nonstationary climate, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1991–2023,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2688-9, 2016. a, b
Sanderson, B. M., Wehner, M., and Knutti, R.: Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2379–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017, 2017. a
Santos, J. A., Belo-Pereira, M., Fraga, H., and Pinto, J. G.: Understanding
climate change projections for precipitation over western Europe with a
weather typing approach, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121,
1170–1189, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024399, 2016. a, b
Scaife, A. A., Copsey, D., Gordon, C., Harris, C., Hinton, T., Keeley, S.,
O'Neill, A., Roberts, M., and Williams, K.: Improved Atlantic winter blocking
in a climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23703,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049573, 2011. a
Schiemann, R. and Frei, C.: How to quantify the resolution of surface climate by circulation types: An example for Alpine precipitation, Phys.
Chem. Earth, 35, 403–410, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2009.09.005, 2010. a
Schoof, J. T.: Statistical Downscaling in Climatology, Geography Compass, 7,
249–265, https://doi.org/10.1111/gec3.12036, 2013. a, b
Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S., Dima-West,
I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior, C. A.,
Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F. B., Trenberth, K. E., van den
Hurk, B. J. J. M., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L., and Zenghelis, D. A.:
Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical
aspects of climate change, Climatic Change, 151, 555–571,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9, 2018. a
Sørup, H. J. D., Davidsen, S., Löwe, R., Thorndahl, S. L., Borup, M., and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.: Evaluating catchment response to artificial
rainfall from four weather generators for present and future climate, Water
Sci. Technol., 77, 2578–2588, https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2018.217, 2018. a
Souverijns, N., Thiery, W., Demuzere, M., and Lipzig, N. P. M. V.: Drivers of
future changes in East African precipitation Drivers of future changes in
East African precipitation, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 1–9,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114011, 2016. a
Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J.,
Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P.: Summary for Policymakers, book
section SPM, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
and New York, NY, USA, 1–30, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004, 2013. a
Stryhal, J. and Huth, R.: Classifications of winter Euro-Atlantic circulation
patterns: An intercomparison of five atmospheric reanalyses, J.
Climate, 30, 7847–7861, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0059.1, 2017. a
Stryhal, J. and Huth, R.: Classifications of winter atmospheric circulation
patterns: validation of CMIP5 GCMs over Europe and the North Atlantic,
Clim. Dynam., 52, 3575–3598, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4344-7, 2018. a, b
Stryhal, J. and Huth, R.: Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles
and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs,
Clim. Dynam., 52, 1063–1075, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4178-3, 2019. a, b
Sunyer, M. A., Hundecha, Y., Lawrence, D., Madsen, H., Willems, P., Martinkova, M., Vormoor, K., Bürger, G., Hanel, M., Kriaučiūnienė, J., Loukas, A., Osuch, M., and Yücel, I.: Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1827–1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015, 2015. a, b
Tabari, H. and Willems, P.: Lagged influence of Atlantic and Pacific climate
patterns on European extreme precipitation, Sci. Rep., 8, 5748,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24069-9, 2018. a, b
Tabari, H., De Troch, R., Giot, O., Hamdi, R., Termonia, P., Saeed, S., Brisson, E., Van Lipzig, N., and Willems, P.: Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes: are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3843–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3843-2016, 2016. a, b, c
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012 (data available at: https://esgf.llnl.gov/, last access: 10 May 2020). a
Termonia, P., Van Schaeybroeck, B., De Cruz, L., De Troch, R.,
Caluwaerts, S., Giot, O., Hamdi, R., Vannitsem, S., Duchêne, F.,
Willems, P., Tabari, H., Van Uytven, E., Hosseinzadehtalaei, P., Van
Lipzig, N., Wouters, H., Vanden Broucke, S., van Ypersele, J. P., Marbaix,
P., Villanueva-Birriel, C., Fettweis, X., Wyard, C., Scholzen, C.,
Doutreloup, S., De Ridder, K., Gobin, A., Lauwaet, D., Stavrakou, T.,
Bauwens, M., Müller, J. F., Luyten, P., Ponsar, S., Van den Eynde,
D., and Pottiaux, E.: The CORDEX.be initiative as a foundation for climate
services in Belgium, Climate Services, 11, 49–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.05.001,
2018. a, b
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction of regional climate model
simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and
evaluation of different methods, J. Hydrol., 456–457, 12–29,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052, 2012. a
Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., da Costa
Bechtold, V., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly,
G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson,
E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J.,
Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher,
M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L.,
Janssen, P. A., Jenne, R., McNally, A. P., Mahfouf, J. F., Morcrette, J. J.,
Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E.,
Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40
re-analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131,
2961–3012, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176, 2005 (data available at: http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/, last access: 10 May 2020). a, b
Vaittinada Ayar, P., Vrac, M., Bastin, S., Carreau, J., Déqué,
M., and Gallardo, C.: Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical
downscaling models under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework:
present climate evaluations, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1301–1329,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2647-5, 2016. a, b
Vanden Broucke, S., Wouters, H., Demuzere, M., and van Lipzig, N. P. M.: The
influence of convection-permitting regional climate modeling on future
projections of extreme precipitation: dependency on topography and
timescale, Clim. Dynam., 52, 5303–5324, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4454-2, 2018. a
Van de Vyver, H., Van Schaeybroeck, B., De Troch, R., Hamdi, R., and Termonia,
P.: Modeling the scaling of short-duration precipitation extremes with
temperature, Earth and Space Science, 6, 2031–2041, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000665, 2019. a, b, c, d
Vansteenkiste, T., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Smedt, F. D., Batelaan, O.,
Pereira, F., and Willems, P.: Intercomparison of hydrological model
structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections,
J. Hydrol., 519, 743–755,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.062, 2014. a
Van Uytven, E. and Willems, P.: Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and
uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium, J.
Hydrol., 558, 9–19, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.01.018, 2018. a, b
Wang, L., Ranasinghe, R., Maskey, S., van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M., and Vrijling,
J. K.: Comparison of empirical statistical methods for downscaling daily
climate projections from CMIP5 GCMs: A case study of the Huai River Basin,
China, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 145–164,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4334, 2016. a
Wang, Y., Sivandran, G., and Bielicki, J. M.: The stationarity of two
statistical downscaling methods for precipitation under different choices of
cross-validation periods, Int. J. Climatol., 38,
e330–e348, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5375, 2018. a
Wasko, C., Lu, W. T., and Mehrotra, R.: Relationship of extreme precipitation,
dry-bulb temperature, and dew point temperature across Australia,
Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 074031, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad135, 2018. a, b
Watterson, I. G., Bathols, J., and Heady, C.: What influences the skill of
climate models over the continents?, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 95, 689–700, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00136.1, 2014. a
Werner, A. T. and Cannon, A. J.: Hydrologic extremes – an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1483–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1483-2016, 2016. a
Widmann, M., Bedia, J., Gutiérrez, J. M., Bosshard, T., Hertig, E., Maraun,
D., Casado, M. J., Ramos, P., Cardoso, R. M., Soares, P. M. M., Ribalaygua,
J., Pagé, C., Fischer, A. M., Herrera, S., and Huth, R.: Validation of
spatial variability in downscaling results from the VALUE perfect predictor
experiment, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 3819–3845,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6024, 2019. a
Wilby, R. L. and Wigley, T. M. L.: Precipitation predictors for downscaling:
Oberserved and General Circulation Model relationships, Int. J. Climatol.,
20, 641–661, https://doi.org/10.1002/(Sici)1097-0088(200005)20:6<641::Aid-Joc501>3.0.Co;2-1, 2000. a
Willems, P.: Compound intensity/duration/frequency-relationships of
extreme precipitation for two seasons and two storm types, J.
Hydrol., 233, 189–205, 2000. a
Willems, P.: Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in
Europe, Climatic Change, 120, 931–944, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0837-x,
2013a.
a, b, c
Willems, P.: Revision of urban drainage design rules after assessment of
climate change impacts on precipitation extremes at Uccle, Belgium, J. Hydrolo., 496, 166–177, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.037,
2013b. a
Willems, P. and Vrac, M.: Statistical precipitation downscaling for
small-scale hydrological impact investigations of climate change, J.
Hydrol., 402, 193–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.030, 2011. a, b, c
Woollings, T., Barriopedro, D., Methven, J., Son, S.-W., Martius, O., Harvey,
B., Sillmann, J., Lupo, A. R., and Seneviratne, S.: Blocking and its Response
to Climate Change, Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 287–300,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0108-z, 2018. a, b
Wootten, A., Terando, A., Reich, B. J., Boyles, R. P., and Semazzi, F.:
Characterizing sources of uncertainty from global climate models and
downscaling techniques, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 56,
3245–3262, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0087.1, 2017. a
Yang, C., Wang, N., and Wang, S.: A comparison of three predictor selection
methods for statistical downscaling, Int. J. Climatol.,
37, 1238–1249, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4772, 2017. a
Yang, Y., Tang, J., Xiong, Z., Wang, S., and Yuan, J.: An intercomparison of
multiple statistical downscaling methods for daily precipitation and
temperature over China: present climate evaluations, Clim. Dynam., 53, 4629–4649,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04809-x, 2019. a
Zappa, G., Masato, G., Shaffrey, L., Woollings, T., and Hodges, K.: Linking
Northern Hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate
models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 135–139,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058480, 2014. a
Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., Li, G., Wan, H., and Cannon, A. J.: Complexity in
estimating past and future extreme short-duration rainfall, Nat.
Geosci., 10, 255–259, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2911, 2017. a, b
Short summary
In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs. Each statistical downscaling method has strengths and limitations, but those are rarely evaluated. This paper illustrates an approach to evaluating the skill of statistical downscaling methods for the specific purpose of impact analysis in hydrology.
In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate...
