Research article
22 May 2017
Research article | 22 May 2017
A gain–loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage–wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods
Vianney Courdent et al.
Related subject area
Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China
Qing Cao, Zhenchun Hao, Feifei Yuan, Zhenkuan Su, Ronny Berndtsson, Jie Hao, and Tsring Nyima
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5415–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5415-2017, 2017
Short summary
Novel indices for the comparison of precipitation extremes and floods: an example from the Czech territory
M. Müller, M. Kašpar, A. Valeriánová, L. Crhová, E. Holtanová, and B. Gvoždíková
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4641–4652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4641-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4641-2015, 2015
Short summary
Multi-annual droughts in the English Lowlands: a review of their characteristics and climate drivers in the winter half-year
C. K. Folland, J. Hannaford, J. P. Bloomfield, M. Kendon, C. Svensson, B. P. Marchant, J. Prior, and E. Wallace
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2353–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, 2015
Short summary
Linking ENSO and heavy rainfall events over coastal British Columbia through a weather pattern classification
P. Brigode, Z. Mićović, P. Bernardara, E. Paquet, F. Garavaglia, J. Gailhard, and P. Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1455–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1455-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1455-2013, 2013
An analytical model for soil-atmosphere feedback
B. Schaefli, R. J. van der Ent, R. Woods, and H. H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1863–1878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1863-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1863-2012, 2012
On the factors influencing surface-layer energy closure and their seasonal variability over the semi-arid Loess Plateau of Northwest China
X. Xiao, H. C. Zuo, Q. D. Yang, S. J. Wang, L. J. Wang, J. W. Chen, B. L. Chen, and B. D. Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 893–910, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-893-2012,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-893-2012, 2012
Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response
D. Zoccatelli, M. Borga, A. Viglione, G. B. Chirico, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3767–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3767-2011,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3767-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Atger, F.: Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 8, 401–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-8-401-2001, 2001.
Aymerich, I., Rieger, L., Sobhani, R., Rosso, D., and Corominas, L.: The difference between energy consumption and energy cost: Modelling energy tariff structures for water resource recovery facilities, Water Res., 81, 113–123, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2015.04.033, 2015.
Bacher, P., Madsen, H., and Nielsen, H. A.: Online short-term solar power forecasting, Sol. Energy, 83, 1772–1783, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2009.05.016, 2009.
BIOFOS: Miljøberetning, Copenhagen, available at: http://www.biofos.dk/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Miljoeberetning-2015.pdf (last access: 1 April 2017), 2015.
Bjerg, J. E., Grum, M., Courdent, V., Halvgaard, R., Vezzaro, L., and Mikkelsen, P. S.: Coupling of Weather Forecasts and Smart Grid-Control of Wastewater inlet to Kolding WWTP (Denmark), in: 10th International Urban Drainage Modelling Conference, 47–59, Mont Sainte-Anne, Québec, Canada, 2015.
Brier, G. W.: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Mon. Weather Rev., 78, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2, 1950.
Chang, H.-L., Yang, S.-C. and Yuan, H.: Analysis of the Relative Operating Characteristic and Economic Value Using the LAPS Ensemble Prediction System in Taiwan, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 1833–1848, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00189.1, 2015.
Collischonn, W., Morelli Tucci, C. E., Clarke, R. T., Chou, S. C., Guilhon, L. G., Cataldi, M., and Allasia, D.: Medium-range reservoir inflow predictions based on quantitative precipitation forecasts, J. Hydrol., 344, 112–122, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.06.025, 2007.
Courdent, V., Grum, M., and Mikkelsen, P. S.: Distinguishing high and low flow domains in urban drainage systems 2 days ahead using numerical weather prediction ensembles, J. Hydrol., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.015, in press, 2017.
Cuo, L., Pagano, T. C., and Wang, Q. J.: A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 713–728, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1347.1, 2011.
Damrath, U., Doms, G., Frühwald, D., Heise, E., Richter, B., and Steppeler, J.: Operational quantitative precipitation forecasting at the German Weather Service, J. Hydrol., 239, 260–285, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00353-X, 2000.
Du, J.: Uncertainty and Ensemble Forecast, National Weather Service, available at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/STILecture1.pdf (last access: 1 April 2017), 2007.
Feddersen, H.: A Short-Range Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, available at: http://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/Rapporter/TR/tr09-14.pdf (last access: 1 April 2017), 2009.
Giebel, G., Badger, J., Landberg, L., Nielsen, H. A., Nielsen, T. S., Madsen, H., Sattler, K., Feddersen, H., Vedel, H., Tøfting, J., Kruse, L. and Voulund, L.: Wind power prediction using ensembles, Roskilde, available at: http://orbit.dtu.dk/files/57134275/ris_r_1527.pdf (last access: 1 April 2017), 2005.
Halvgaard, R., Vezzaro, L., Mikkelsen, P. S., Grum, M., Munk- Nielsen, T., Tychsen, P., and Madsen, H.: Integrated Model Predictive Control of Wastewater Treatment Plants and Sewer Systems in a Smart Grid, 1–16, Control Eng. Pract., submitted, 2017.
Harremoës, P., Pedersen, C. M., Laustsen, A., Sørensen, S., Laden, B., Friis, K., Andersen, H. K., Linde, J. J., Mikkelsen, P. S., and Jakobsen, C.: Funktionspraksis for afløbssystemer under regn., IDA Spildevandskomiteen, 2005.
Jørgensen, H. K., Rosenorn, S., Madsen, H., and Mikkelsen, P. S.: Quality control of rain data used for urban runoff systems, Water Sci. Technol., 37, 113–120, 1998.
Korsholm, U. S., Petersen, C., Sass, B. H., Nielsen, N. W., Jensen, D. G., Olsen, B. T., Gill, R., and Vedel, H.: A new approach for assimilation of 2D radar precipitation in a high-resolution NWP model, Meteorol. Appl., 22, 48–59, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1466, 2015.
Laloy, E. and Vrugt, J. A.: High-dimensional posterior exploration of hydrologic models using multiple-try DREAM (ZS) and high-performance computing, Water Resour. Res., 48, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010608, 2012.
Langergraber, G., Alex, J., Weissenbacher, N., Woerner, D., Ahnert, M., Frehmann, T., Halft, N., Hobus, L., Plattes, M., Spering, V., and Winkler, S.: Generation of diurnal variation for influent data for dynamic simulation, Water Sci. Technol., 57, 1483–1486, https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2008.228, 2008.
Leu, S.-Y., Rosso, D., Larson, L. E., and Stenstrom, M. K.: Real-time aeration efficiency monitoring in the activated sludge process and methods to reduce energy consumption and operating costs, Water Environ. Res., 81, 2471–2481, https://doi.org/10.2175/106143009X425906, 2009.
Mason, I.: A model for assessment of weather forecasts, Aust. Met. Mag., 30, 291–303, 1982.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark: Independent from fossil fuels by 2050, available at: http://denmark.dk/en/green-living/strategies-and-policies/independent-from-fossil-fuels-by-2050, last access: 1 April 2017.
Mittermaier, M. P.: Improving short-range high-resolution model precipitation forecast skill using time-lagged ensembles, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 1487–1500, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.135 , 2007.
Mollerup, A. L., Mikkelsen, P. S., and Sin, G.: A methodological approach to the design of optimising control strategies for sewer systems, Environ. Model. Softw., 83, 103–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.004, 2016.
Nash, S. E.: The Form of the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph, IASH Publ., 114–121, 1957.
Pappenberger, F., Scipal, K., and Buizza, R.: Hydrological aspect of meteorological verification, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 43–52, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.171, 2008.
Richardson, D. S.: Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 649–667, 2000.
Rosso, D. and Stenstrom, M. K.: Comparative economic analysis of the impacts of mean cell retention time and denitrification on aeration systems, Water Res., 39, 3773–3780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2005.07.002, 2005.
Roulin, E.: Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 725–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-725-2007, 2007.
Shrestha, D. L., Robertson, D. E., Wang, Q. J., Pagano, T. C., and Hapuarachchi, H. A. P.: Evaluation of numerical weather prediction model precipitation forecasts for short-term streamflow forecasting purpose, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1913–1931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1913-2013, 2013.
Sun, J., Xue, M., Wilson, J. W., Zawadzki, I., Ballard, S. P., Onvlee-Hooimeyer, J., Joe, P., Barker, D. M., Li, P. W., Golding, B., Xu, M. and Pinto, J.: Use of nwp for nowcasting convective precipitation: Recent progress and challenges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 409–426, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00263.1, 2014.
Theis, S. E., Hense, A., and Damrath, U.: Probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model: a pragmatic approach, Meteorol. Appl., 12, 257, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482705001763, 2005.
Unden, P., Rontu, L., Jarvinen, H., Lynch, P., Calvo, J., Cats, G., Cuxart, J., Eerola, K., Fortelius, C., Garcia-moya, J. A., Jones, C., Lenderlink, G., Mcdonald, A., Mcgrath, R., and Navascues, B.: HIRLAM-5 Scientific Documentation, Norrkoping, available at: http://hirlam.org/index.php/component/docman/doc_view/270-hirlam-scientific-documentation-december-2002?Itemid=70 (last access: 1 April 2017), 2002.
Weron, R.: Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices: A statistical approach, First Edn., John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2006.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Elsevier, 2011.
WWRP/WGNE: Recommendations for the Verification and Intercomparison of QPFs and PQPFs from Operational NWP Models, Geneva, Switzerland, available at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/WWRP2009-1_web_CD.pdf (last access: 1 April 2017), 2009.
Zhu, Y., Toth, Z., Wobus, R., Richardson, D., and Mylne, K.: The economic value of ensemble–based weather forecasts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 73–83, 2002.
Zugno, M.: Optimization under uncertainty for management of renewables in electricity markets, University of Denmark, available at: http://orbit.dtu.dk/en/publications/optimization-under-uncertainty-for-management-of-renewables-in-electricity-markets(d314a0c4-185f-4983-95ff-21133defd41d).html (last access: 1 April 2017), 2013.