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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 13, issue 11
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2233–2240, 2009
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-2233-2009
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2233–2240, 2009
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-2233-2009
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  25 Nov 2009

25 Nov 2009

Extracting statistical parameters of extreme precipitation from a NWP model

J. Eliasson1, O. Rögnvaldsson2, and T. Jonsson3 J. Eliasson et al.
  • 1University of Iceland, Institute of Environmental and Civil Engineering, Iceland
  • 2Institute for Meteorological Research, Reykjavik, Iceland
  • 3Icelandic Meteorological Office, Iceland

Abstract. Precipitation simulations on an 8×8 km grid using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 are used to estimate the M5 and Ci statistical parameters in order to support the M5 map used for flood estimates by Icelandic engineers. It is known a priori that especially wind anomalies occur on a considerably smaller scale than 8 km. The simulation period used is 1962–2005 and 73 meteorological stations have records long enough in this period to provide a validation data set. Of these only one station is in the central highlands, so the highland values of the existing M5 map are estimates. A comparison between the simulated values and values based on station observations set shows an M5 average difference (observed-simulated) of −5 mm/24 h with a standard deviation of 17 mm, 3 outliers excluded. This is within expected limits, computational and observational errors considered. A suggested correction procedure brings these values down to 4 mm and 11 mm, respectively.

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