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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 19, issue 6
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2577–2586, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2577-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Drought forecasting and warning

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2577–2586, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2577-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 02 Jun 2015

Research article | 02 Jun 2015

Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin

F. Wetterhall et al.

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Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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Cited articles

Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., Lopez, P., and Ferranti, L.: Evaluation of ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim-GPCP-rescaled precipitation over the U.S.A, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, 10, 2010.
Barron, J.: Dry spell mitigation to upgrade semi-arid rainfed agriculture: Water harvesting and soil nutrient management for smallholder maize cultivation in Machakos, Kenya, Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary, PhD, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 2004.
Barron, J. and Okwach, G.: Run-off water harvesting for dry spell mitigation in maize (Zea mays L.): results from on-farm research in semi-arid Kenya, Agr. Water Manage., 74, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2004.11.002, 2005.
Barron, J., Rockström, J., Gichuki, F., and Hatibu, N.: Dry spell analysis and maize yields for two semi-arid locations in east Africa, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 117, 23–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00037-6, 2003.
Belo-Pereira, M., Dutra, E., and Viterbo, P.: Evaluation of global precipitation data sets over the Iberian Peninsula, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 116, 2156–2202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015481, 2011.
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Short summary
Dry spells can have a devastating impact on agricuture in areas where irrigation is not available. Forecasting these dry spells could enhance preparedness in sensitive regions and avoid economic loss due to harvest failure. In this study, ECMWF seasonal forecasts are applied in the Limpopo basin in southeastern Africa to forecast dry spells in the seasonal rains. The results indicate skill in the forecast which is further improved by post-processing of the precipitation forecasts.
Dry spells can have a devastating impact on agricuture in areas where irrigation is not...
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