Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin

Wetterhall, F.; Winsemius, H. C.; Dutra, E.; Werner, M.; Pappenberger, E.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-2577-2015

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2577-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Drought forecasting and warning

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2577-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 6

Research article

|

02 Jun 2015

Research article |

| 02 Jun 2015

Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin

F. Wetterhall, H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, M. Werner, and E. Pappenberger

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Views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jan 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
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Apr 2014	29	21	1	51
May 2014	19	31	3	53
Jun 2014	23	27	1	51
Jul 2014	45	26	2	73
Aug 2014	9	24	7	40
Sep 2014	20	24	2	46
Oct 2014	12	14	2	28
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Jan 2015	12	10	2	24
Feb 2015	12	6	0	18
Mar 2015	7	3	0	10
Apr 2015	11	3	0	14
May 2015	5	1	6
Jun 2015	123	83	1	207
Jul 2015	54	74	1	129
Aug 2015	19	47	1	67
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Oct 2015	28	56	2	86
Nov 2015	29	59	0	88
Dec 2015	9	56	0	65
Jan 2016	30	51	1	82
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Jul 2016	10	2	2	14
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Aug 2018	24	12	0	36
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Nov 2018	19	16	0	35
Dec 2018	21	9	0	30
Jan 2019	20	6	0	26
Feb 2019	17	12	0	29
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Apr 2019	12	7	0	19
May 2019	14	13	0	27
Jun 2019	22	13	0	35
Jul 2019	20	10	0	30
Aug 2019	14	9	0	23
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Oct 2019	18	7	1	26
Nov 2019	19	7	0	26
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Mar 2020	16	5	0	21
Apr 2020	19	9	0	28
May 2020	11	6	0	17
Jun 2020	23	3	0	26
Jul 2020	38	16	8	62
Aug 2020	12	7	8	27
Sep 2020	16	9	0	25
Oct 2020	15	4	0	19
Nov 2020	14	4	0	18
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Jan 2021	36	18	1	55
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Mar 2021	11	11	6	28
Apr 2021	15	17	0	32
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Nov 2022	25	13	0	38
Dec 2022	19	10	2	31
Jan 2023	39	20	5	64
Feb 2023	30	37	4	71
Mar 2023	41	57	13	111
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May 2023	18	14	2	34
Jun 2023	23	13	1	37
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Oct 2023	22	17	2	41
Nov 2023	9	7	1	17
Dec 2023	17	14	1	32
Jan 2024	24	14	1	39
Feb 2024	11	18	1	30
Mar 2024	19	19	3	41
Apr 2024	22	22	3	47
May 2024	25	23	8	56
Jun 2024	38	15	2	55
Jul 2024	32	27	5	64
Aug 2024	38	16	0	54
Sep 2024	16	13	0	29
Oct 2024	22	18	0	40
Nov 2024	8	5	0	13
Dec 2024	19	8	2	29
Jan 2025	20	10	3	33
Feb 2025	19	9	4	32
Mar 2025	14	7	1	22
Apr 2025	16	11	1	28
May 2025	19	8	0	27
Jun 2025	29	11	2	42
Jul 2025	18	20	2	40
Aug 2025	28	17	1	46
Sep 2025	65	20	1	86
Oct 2025	18	24	2	44
Nov 2025	23	9	0	32

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jan 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jan 2014	76	57	0	133
Feb 2014	23	25	3	51
Mar 2014	22	35	3	60
Apr 2014	29	21	1	51
May 2014	19	31	3	53
Jun 2014	23	27	1	51
Jul 2014	45	26	2	73
Aug 2014	9	24	7	40
Sep 2014	20	24	2	46
Oct 2014	12	14	2	28
Nov 2014	8	20	0	28
Dec 2014	5	7	2	14
Jan 2015	12	10	2	24
Feb 2015	12	6	0	18
Mar 2015	7	3	0	10
Apr 2015	11	3	0	14
May 2015	5	1	6
Jun 2015	123	83	1	207
Jul 2015	54	74	1	129
Aug 2015	19	47	1	67
Sep 2015	18	39	0	57
Oct 2015	28	56	2	86
Nov 2015	29	59	0	88
Dec 2015	9	56	0	65
Jan 2016	30	51	1	82
Feb 2016	20	48	4	72
Mar 2016	32	46	12	90
Apr 2016	10	25	1	36
May 2016	11	5	1	17
Jun 2016	6	6	0	12
Jul 2016	10	2	2	14
Aug 2016	7	4	0	11
Sep 2016	11	5	0	16
Oct 2016	19	2	7	28
Nov 2016	14	3	7	24
Dec 2016	6	7	1	14
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Feb 2017	14	4	3	21
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May 2017	28	10	2	40
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Apr 2020	19	9	0	28
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Apr 2021	15	17	0	32
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Jun 2021	13	9	0	22
Jul 2021	17	22	0	39
Aug 2021	15	18	0	33
Sep 2021	22	17	0	39
Oct 2021	12	39	0	51
Nov 2021	16	34	1	51
Dec 2021	19	14	0	33
Jan 2022	18	21	0	39
Feb 2022	21	16	4	41
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Jun 2022	16	11	1	28
Jul 2022	8	6	0	14
Aug 2022	23	17	1	41
Sep 2022	17	12	0	29
Oct 2022	20	15	2	37
Nov 2022	25	13	0	38
Dec 2022	19	10	2	31
Jan 2023	39	20	5	64
Feb 2023	30	37	4	71
Mar 2023	41	57	13	111
Apr 2023	31	21	6	58
May 2023	18	14	2	34
Jun 2023	23	13	1	37
Jul 2023	21	15	4	40
Aug 2023	21	17	2	40
Sep 2023	9	9	0	18
Oct 2023	22	17	2	41
Nov 2023	9	7	1	17
Dec 2023	17	14	1	32
Jan 2024	24	14	1	39
Feb 2024	11	18	1	30
Mar 2024	19	19	3	41
Apr 2024	22	22	3	47
May 2024	25	23	8	56
Jun 2024	38	15	2	55
Jul 2024	32	27	5	64
Aug 2024	38	16	0	54
Sep 2024	16	13	0	29
Oct 2024	22	18	0	40
Nov 2024	8	5	0	13
Dec 2024	19	8	2	29
Jan 2025	20	10	3	33
Feb 2025	19	9	4	32
Mar 2025	14	7	1	22
Apr 2025	16	11	1	28
May 2025	19	8	0	27
Jun 2025	29	11	2	42
Jul 2025	18	20	2	40
Aug 2025	28	17	1	46
Sep 2025	65	20	1	86
Oct 2025	18	24	2	44
Nov 2025	23	9	0	32

Latest update: 16 Nov 2025

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Short summary

Dry spells can have a devastating impact on agricuture in areas where irrigation is not available. Forecasting these dry spells could enhance preparedness in sensitive regions and avoid economic loss due to harvest failure. In this study, ECMWF seasonal forecasts are applied in the Limpopo basin in southeastern Africa to forecast dry spells in the seasonal rains. The results indicate skill in the forecast which is further improved by post-processing of the precipitation forecasts.