Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
Research article
05 Mar 2015
Research article |  | 05 Mar 2015

Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale

J. Fabre, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter, and B. Grouillet

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Cited articles

Allen, R., Pereira, L., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop evapotranspiration – guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and drainage paper, 56, 1998.
Arnell, N.: Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ. Change, 14, 31–52, 2004.
Arnell, N., van Vuuren, D., and Isaac, M.: The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources, Global Environ. Change, 21, 592–603, 2011.
Asefa, T., Clayton, J., Adams, A., and Anderson, D.: Performance evaluation of a water resources system under varying climatic conditions: Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability and beyond, J. Hydrol., 508, 53–65, 2014.
Beck, L. and Bernauer, T.: How will combined changes in water demand and climate affect water availability in the Zambezi river basin?, Global Environ. Change, 21, 1061–1072, 2011.
Short summary
Socioeconomic and hydro-climatic data were used to model water resources, water demand and their interactions in two river basins. By using an integrative framework we successfully modeled variations in water stress over the past 40 years, accounting for climate and human pressures and changes in water management strategies over time. We explained past changes in discharge by separating human and hydro-climatic trends. This work will help assess future water stress and design adaptation plans.