Articles | Volume 28, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 19 Jan 2024
| 19 Jan 2024
Using statistical models to depict the response of multi-timescale drought to forest cover change across climate zones
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
Henning W. Rust
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany
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Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
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Deforestation has a significant impact on climate, yet its effects on drought remain less understood. This study investigates how deforestation affects drought across various climate zones and timescales. Findings indicate that deforestation leads to drier conditions in tropical regions and wetter conditions in arid areas, with minimal effects in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term drought, offering valuable insights into vegetation–climate interactions.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
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Deforestation has a significant impact on climate, yet its effects on drought remain less understood. This study investigates how deforestation affects drought across various climate zones and timescales. Findings indicate that deforestation leads to drier conditions in tropical regions and wetter conditions in arid areas, with minimal effects in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term drought, offering valuable insights into vegetation–climate interactions.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 361–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-361-2025, 2025
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The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score (a measure of forecast performance) as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, 2024
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The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
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The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
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Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
Edmund P. Meredith, Uwe Ulbrich, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 851–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-851-2023, 2023
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Cell-tracking algorithms allow for the study of properties of a convective cell across its lifetime and, in particular, how these respond to climate change. We investigated whether the design of the algorithm can affect the magnitude of the climate-change signal. The algorithm's criteria for identifying a cell were found to have a strong impact on the warming response. The sensitivity of the warming response to different algorithm settings and cell types should thus be fully explored.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
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In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Robert Polzin, Annette Müller, Henning Rust, Peter Névir, and Péter Koltai
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 37–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-37-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-37-2022, 2022
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In this study, a recent algorithmic framework called Direct Bayesian Model Reduction (DBMR) is applied which provides a scalable probability-preserving identification of reduced models directly from data. The stochastic method is tested in a meteorological application towards a model reduction to latent states of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large-scale atmospheric flow.
Noelia Otero, Oscar E. Jurado, Tim Butler, and Henning W. Rust
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1905–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1905-2022, 2022
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Surface ozone and temperature are strongly dependent and their extremes might be exacerbated by underlying climatological drivers, such as atmospheric blocking. Using an observational data set, we measure the dependence structure between ozone and temperature under the influence of atmospheric blocking. Blocks enhanced the probability of occurrence of compound ozone and temperature extremes over northwestern and central Europe, leading to greater health risks.
Felix S. Fauer, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021
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Extreme rainfall events are modeled in this study for different timescales. A new parameterization of the dependence between extreme values and their timescale enables our model to estimate extremes on very short (1 min) and long (5 d) timescales simultaneously. We compare different approaches of modeling this dependence and find that our new model improves performance for timescales between 2 h and 2 d without affecting model performance on other timescales.
Jana Ulrich, Felix S. Fauer, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6133–6149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6133-2021, 2021
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The characteristics of extreme precipitation on different timescales as well as in different seasons are relevant information, e.g., for designing hydrological structures or managing water supplies. Therefore, our aim is to describe these characteristics simultaneously within one model. We find similar characteristics for short extreme precipitation at all considered stations in Germany but pronounced regional differences with respect to the seasonality of long-lasting extreme events.
Carola Detring, Annette Müller, Lisa Schielicke, Peter Névir, and Henning W. Rust
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 927–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-927-2021, 2021
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Stationary, long-lasting blocked weather patterns can lead to extreme conditions. Within this study the temporal evolution of the occurrence probability is analyzed, and the onset, decay and transition probabilities of blocking within the past 30 years are modeled. Using Markov models combined with logistic regression, we found large changes in summer, where the probability of transitions to so-called Omega blocks increases strongly, while the unblocked state becomes less probable.
Alexander Pasternack, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, 2021
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Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, 2020
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A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
Noelia Otero, Henning W. Rust, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-691, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-691, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Surface ozone concentrations are strongly correlated with temperature in summertime. Using long-term measurements, we investigate changes in the observed relationship between ozone and temperature over Germany. We propose a new statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to describe ozone production rates as a function of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and temperature. Our results suggest that NOx reductions alone can not explain the changes in the temperature dependence of ozone.
Noelia Otero, Jana Sillmann, Kathleen A. Mar, Henning W. Rust, Sverre Solberg, Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt, Robert Bergström, Bertrand Bessagnet, Augustin Colette, Florian Couvidat, Cournelius Cuvelier, Svetlana Tsyro, Hilde Fagerli, Martijn Schaap, Astrid Manders, Mihaela Mircea, Gino Briganti, Andrea Cappelletti, Mario Adani, Massimo D'Isidoro, María-Teresa Pay, Mark Theobald, Marta G. Vivanco, Peter Wind, Narendra Ojha, Valentin Raffort, and Tim Butler
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12269–12288, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12269-2018, 2018
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This paper evaluates the capability of air-quality models to capture the observed relationship between surface ozone concentrations and meteorology over Europe. The air-quality models tended to overestimate the influence of maximum temperature and surface solar radiation. None of the air-quality models captured the strength of the observed relationship between ozone and relative humidity appropriately, underestimating the effect of relative humidity, a key factor in the ozone removal processes.
Edmund P. Meredith, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4183–4200, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4183-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4183-2018, 2018
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Kilometre-scale climate-model data are of great benefit to both hydrologists and end users studying extreme precipitation, though often unavailable due to the computational expense associated with such high-resolution simulations. We develop a method which identifies days with enhanced risk of extreme rainfall over a catchment, so that high-resolution simulations can be performed only when such a risk exists, reducing computational expense by over 90 % while still well capturing the extremes.
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 985–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, 2018
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We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.
Stefanie Kremser, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Henning W. Rust, and Greg E. Bodeker
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 3021–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-3021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-3021-2018, 2018
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We investigate the feasibility of quantifying the difference in biases of two instrument types (i.e. radiosondes) by flying the old and new instruments on alternating days, so-called interlacing, to statistically derive the systematic biases between the instruments. While it is in principle possible to estimate the difference between two instrument biases from interlaced measurements, the number of required interlaced flights is very large for reasonable autocorrelation coefficient values.
Stefan Liersch, Julia Tecklenburg, Henning Rust, Andreas Dobler, Madlen Fischer, Tim Kruschke, Hagen Koch, and Fred Fokko Hattermann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2163–2185, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2163-2018, 2018
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Application-oriented regional impact studies require accurate simulations of future climate variables and water availability. We analyse the quality of global and regional climate projections and discuss potentials of correction methods that partly overcome this quality issue. The model ensemble used in this study projects increasing average annual discharges and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.
Alexander Pasternack, Jonas Bhend, Mark A. Liniger, Henning W. Rust, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 351–368, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018, 2018
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We propose a decadal forecast recalibration strategy (DeFoReSt) which simultaneously adjusts unconditional and conditional bias, as well as the ensemble spread while considering the typical setting of decadal predictions, i.e., model drift and a climate trend. We apply DeFoReSt to decadal toy model data and surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip system and find consistent improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.
Christoph Ritschel, Uwe Ulbrich, Peter Névir, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6501–6517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017, 2017
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A stochastic model for precipitation is used to simulate an observed precipitation series; it is compared to the original series in terms of intensity–duration frequency curves. Basis for the latter curves is a parametric model for the duration dependence of the underlying extreme value model allowing a consistent estimation of one single duration-dependent distribution using all duration series simultaneously. The stochastic model reproduces the curves except for very rare extreme events.
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Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Mathematical applications
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James H. Stagge, Kyungmin Sung, Irenee Felix Munyejuru, and Md Atif Ibne Haidar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 719–732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-719-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-719-2025, 2025
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The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and related drought indices are used globally to measure drought severity. The index uses a predictable structure, which we leverage to determine the theoretical likelihood of a year with an extreme worse than a given threshold. We show these likelihoods differ by the length (number of months) and resolution (daily vs. monthly) of the index. This is important for drought managers when setting decision thresholds or when communicating risk to the public.
Yuka Muto and Shunji Kotsuki
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5401–5417, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5401-2024, 2024
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It is crucial to improve global precipitation estimates to understand water-related disasters and water resources. This study proposes a new methodology to interpolate global precipitation fields from ground rain gauge observations using ensemble data assimilation and the precipitation of a numerical weather prediction model. Our estimates agree better with independent rain gauge observations than existing precipitation estimates, especially in mountainous or rain-gauge-sparse regions.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3263, 2024
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In semi-arid regions, the timing and duration of the rainy season are crucial for agriculture. This study introduces a new framework for improving estimations of start and end of the rainy season by testing how well they fit local vegetation data. We improve the performance of existing methods and present a new one with higher performance. Our findings can help to make informed decisions about water usage, and the framework can be applied to other regions as well.
Magdalena Uber, Michael Haller, Christoph Brendel, Gudrun Hillebrand, and Thomas Hoffmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 87–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-87-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-87-2024, 2024
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We calculated past, present and future rainfall erosivity in central Europe from high-resolution precipitation data (3 km and 1 h) generated by the COSMO-CLM convection-permitting climate model. Future rainfall erosivity can be up to 84 % higher than it was in the past. Such increases are much higher than estimated previously from regional climate model output. Convection-permitting simulations have an enormous and, to date, unexploited potential for the calculation of future rainfall erosivity.
Yuanyuan Xiao, Shuiqing Yin, Bofu Yu, Conghui Fan, Wenting Wang, and Yun Xie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4563–4577, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4563-2023, 2023
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An exceptionally heavy rainfall event occurred on 20 July 2021 in central China (the 7.20 storm). The storm presents a rare opportunity to examine the extreme rainfall erosivity. The storm, with an average recurrence interval of at least 10 000 years, was the largest in terms of its rainfall erosivity on record over the past 70 years in China. The study suggests that extreme erosive events can occur anywhere in eastern China and are not necessarily concentrated in low latitudes.
Emanuele Mombrini, Stefania Tamea, Alberto Viglione, and Roberto Revelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-218, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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In north-western Italy overall drought conditions appear to have worsened over the last 60 years, due to both precipitation deficits and increased evapotranspiration caused by temperature increase. In addition to changes in drought conditions, changes in the characteristics of drought periods, both at a local and at a region-wide level, are found. Links between all the aforementioned changes and the terrain topography are highlited, finding generally worse conditions in lower lying areas.
Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Frederik Wolf, Niklas Boers, Dominik Traxl, Norbert Marwan, and Jürgen Kurths
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2645–2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2645-2023, 2023
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Employing event synchronization and complex networks analysis, we reveal a cascade of heavy rainfall events, related to intense atmospheric rivers (ARs): heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in western North America (NA) that occur in the aftermath of land-falling ARs are synchronized with HPEs in central and eastern Canada with a delay of up to 12 d. Understanding the effects of ARs in the rainfall over NA will lead to better anticipating the evolution of the climate dynamics in the region.
Jiqing Li, Jing Huang, Lei Zheng, and Wei Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2325–2339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2325-2023, 2023
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Under the joint action of climate–human activities the use of runoff data whose mathematical properties have changed has become the key to watershed management. To determine whether the data have been changed, the number and the location of changes, we proposed a change-point detection framework. The problem of determining the parameters of wavelet transform has been solved by comparing the accuracy of identifying change points. This study helps traditional models adapt to environmental changes.
Nele Reyniers, Timothy J. Osborn, Nans Addor, and Geoff Darch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1151–1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023, 2023
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In an analysis of future drought projections for Great Britain based on the Standardised Precipitation Index and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, we show that the choice of drought indicator has a decisive influence on the resulting projected changes in drought characteristics, although both result in increased drying. This highlights the need to understand the interplay between increasing atmospheric evaporative demand and drought impacts under a changing climate.
Dipanjan Dey, Aitor Aldama Campino, and Kristofer Döös
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 481–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-481-2023, 2023
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One of the most striking and robust features of climate change is the acceleration of the atmospheric water cycle branch. Earlier studies were able to provide a quantification of the global atmospheric water cycle, but they missed addressing the atmospheric water transport connectivity within and between ocean basins and land. These shortcomings were overcome in the present study and presented a complete synthesised and quantitative view of the atmospheric water cycle.
Abbas El Hachem, Jochen Seidel, Florian Imbery, Thomas Junghänel, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6137–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6137-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6137-2022, 2022
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Through this work, a methodology to identify outliers in intense precipitation data was presented. The results show the presence of several suspicious observations that strongly differ from their surroundings. Many identified outliers did not have unusually high values but disagreed with their neighboring values at the corresponding time steps. Weather radar and discharge data were used to distinguish between single events and false observations.
Qihua Ran, Jin Wang, Xiuxiu Chen, Lin Liu, Jiyu Li, and Sheng Ye
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4919–4931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4919-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4919-2022, 2022
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This study aims to further evaluate the relative importance of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall on flood generation and the controlling factors. The relative importance of antecedent soil moisture and daily rainfall present a significant correlation with drainage area; the larger the watershed, and the more essential the antecedent soil saturation rate is in flood generation, the less important daily rainfall will be.
Kyunghun Kim, Jaewon Jung, Hung Soo Kim, Masahiko Haraguchi, and Soojun Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4823–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4823-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4823-2022, 2022
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This study applied a new methodology (complex network), instead of using classic methods, to establish the relationships between rainfall events in large East Asian cities. The relationships show that western China and Southeast Asia have a lot of influence on each other. Moreover, it is confirmed that the relationships arise from the effect of the East Asian monsoon. In future, complex network may be able to be applied to analyze the concurrent relationships between extreme rainfall events.
Haijiang Wu, Xiaoling Su, Vijay P. Singh, Te Zhang, Jixia Qi, and Shengzhi Huang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3847–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3847-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3847-2022, 2022
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Agricultural drought forecasting lies at the core of overall drought risk management and is critical for food security and drought early warning. Using three-dimensional scenarios, we attempted to compare the agricultural drought forecast performance of a canonical vine copula (3C-vine) model and meta-Gaussian (MG) model over China. The findings show that the 3C-vine model exhibits more skill than the MG model when using 1– to 3-month lead times for forecasting agricultural drought.
Linqi Zhang, Yi Liu, Liliang Ren, Adriaan J. Teuling, Ye Zhu, Linyong Wei, Linyan Zhang, Shanhu Jiang, Xiaoli Yang, Xiuqin Fang, and Hang Yin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3241–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3241-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3241-2022, 2022
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In this study, three machine learning methods displayed a good detection capacity of flash droughts. The RF model was recommended to estimate the depletion rate of soil moisture and simulate flash drought by considering the multiple meteorological variable anomalies in the adjacent time to drought onset. The anomalies of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a stronger synergistic but asymmetrical effect on flash droughts compared to slowly developing droughts.
Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2797–2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, 2022
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Reliable prediction of floods depends on the quality of the input data such as precipitation. However, estimation of precipitation from the local measurements is known to be difficult, especially for extremes. Regionalization improves the estimates by increasing the quantity of data available for estimation. Here, we compare three regionalization methods based on their robustness and reliability. We apply the comparison to a dense network of daily stations within and outside Switzerland.
András Bárdossy, Jochen Seidel, and Abbas El Hachem
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 583–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-583-2021, 2021
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In this study, the applicability of data from private weather stations (PWS) for precipitation interpolation was investigated. Due to unknown errors and biases in these observations, a two-step filter was developed that uses indicator correlations and event-based spatial precipitation patterns. The procedure was tested and cross validated for the state of Baden-Württemberg (Germany). The biggest improvement is achieved for the shortest time aggregations.
Sigrid J. Bakke, Monica Ionita, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5621–5653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5621-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5621-2020, 2020
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This study provides an in-depth analysis of the 2018 northern European drought. Large parts of the region experienced 60-year record-breaking temperatures, linked to high-pressure systems and warm surrounding seas. Meteorological drought developed from May and, depending on local conditions, led to extreme low flows and groundwater drought in the following months. The 2018 event was unique in that it affected most of Fennoscandia as compared to previous droughts.
Bo Dan, Xiaogu Zheng, Guocan Wu, and Tao Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5187–5201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5187-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5187-2020, 2020
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Data assimilation is a procedure to generate an optimal combination of the state variable in geoscience, based on the model outputs and observations. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) scheme is a widely used assimilation method in soil moisture estimation. This study proposed several modifications of EnKF for improving this assimilation. The study shows that the quality of the assimilation result is improved, while the degree of water budget imbalance is reduced.
Eric Pohl, Christophe Grenier, Mathieu Vrac, and Masa Kageyama
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2817-2020, 2020
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Existing approaches to quantify the emergence of climate change require several user choices that make these approaches less objective. We present an approach that uses a minimum number of choices and showcase its application in the extremely sensitive, permafrost-dominated region of eastern Siberia. Designed as a Python toolbox, it allows for incorporating climate model, reanalysis, and in situ data to make use of numerous existing data sources and reduce uncertainties in obtained estimates.
Eva Mekis, Ronald E. Stewart, Julie M. Theriault, Bohdan Kochtubajda, Barrie R. Bonsal, and Zhuo Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1741–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1741-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1741-2020, 2020
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This article provides a Canada-wide analysis of near-0°C temperature conditions (±2°C) using hourly surface temperature and precipitation type observations from 92 locations for the 1981–2011 period. Higher annual occurrences were found in Atlantic Canada, although high values also occur in other regions. Trends of most indicators show little or no change despite a systematic warming over Canada. A higher than expected tendency for near-0°C conditions was also found at some stations.
Jianjun Zhang, Guangyao Gao, Bojie Fu, Cong Wang, Hoshin V. Gupta, Xiaoping Zhang, and Rui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 809–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-809-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-809-2020, 2020
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We proposed an approach that integrates universal multifractals and a segmentation algorithm to precisely identify extreme precipitation (EP) and assess spatiotemporal EP variation over the Loess Plateau, using daily data. Our results explain how EP contributes to the widely distributed severe natural hazards. These findings are of great significance for ecological management in the Loess Plateau. Our approach is also helpful for spatiotemporal EP assessment at the regional scale.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Wei Zhang, Yongyong Zhang, Zhiyong Liu, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1-2020, 2020
Guoxiao Wei, Xiaoying Zhang, Ming Ye, Ning Yue, and Fei Kan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2877–2895, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2877-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2877-2019, 2019
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Accurately evaluating evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical challenge in improving hydrological process modeling. Here we evaluated four ET models (PM, SW, PT–FC, and AA) under the Bayesian framework. Our results reveal that the SW model has the best performance. This is in part because the SW model captures the main physical mechanism in ET; the other part is that the key parameters, such as the extinction factor, could be well constrained with observation data.
Chongli Di, Tiejun Wang, Xiaohua Yang, and Siliang Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5069–5079, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5069-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5069-2018, 2018
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The original Grassberger–Procaccia algorithm for complex analysis was modified by incorporating the normal-based K-means clustering technique and the RANSAC algorithm. The calculation accuracy of the proposed method was shown to outperform traditional algorithms. The proposed algorithm was used to diagnose climate system complexity in the Hai He basin. The spatial patterns of the complexity of precipitation and air temperature reflected the influence of the dominant climate system.
César Cisneros Vaca, Christiaan van der Tol, and Chandra Prasad Ghimire
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3719, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3701-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3701-2018, 2018
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The influence of long-term changes in canopy structure on rainfall interception loss was studied in a 55-year old forest. Interception loss was similar at the same site (38 %), when the forest was 29 years old. In the past, the forest was denser and had a higher storage capacity, but the evaporation rates were lower. We emphasize the importance of quantifying downward sensible heat flux and heat release from canopy biomass in tall forest in order to improve the quantification of evaporation.
Sojung Park, Seon Ki Park, Jeung Whan Lee, and Yunho Park
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3435–3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3435-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3435-2018, 2018
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Understanding the precipitation characteristics is essential to design an optimal observation network. We studied the spatial and temporal characteristics of summertime precipitation systems in Korea via geostatistical analyses on the ground-based precipitation and satellite water vapor data. We found that, under a strict standard, an observation network with higher resolution is required in local areas with frequent heavy rainfalls, depending on directional features of precipitation systems.
Wenbin Liu, Fubao Sun, Yanzhong Li, Guoqing Zhang, Yan-Fang Sang, Wee Ho Lim, Jiahong Liu, Hong Wang, and Peng Bai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 351–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-351-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-351-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of basin-scale water budgets over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are not well understood nowadays due to the lack of hydro-climatic observations. In this study, we investigate seasonal cycles and trends of water budget components (e.g. precipitation P, evapotranspiration ET and runoff Q) in 18 TP river basins during the period 1982–2011 through the use of multi-source datasets (e.g. in situ observations, satellite retrievals, reanalysis outputs and land surface model simulations).
Harsh Beria, Trushnamayee Nanda, Deepak Singh Bisht, and Chandranath Chatterjee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6117–6134, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6117-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6117-2017, 2017
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High-quality satellite precipitation forcings have provided a viable alternative to hydrologic modeling in data-scarce regions. Ageing TRMM sensors have recently been upgraded to GPM, promising enhanced spatio-temporal resolutions. Statistical and hydrologic evaluation of GPM measurements across 86 Indian river basins revealed improved low rainfall estimates with reduced effects of climatology and topography.
James C. Bennett, Quan J. Wang, David E. Robertson, Andrew Schepen, Ming Li, and Kelvin Michael
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6007–6030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, 2017
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We assess a new streamflow forecasting system in Australia. The system is designed to meet the need of water agencies for 12-month forecasts. The forecasts perform well in a wide range of rivers. Forecasts for shorter periods (up to 6 months) are generally informative. Forecasts sometimes did not perform well in a few very dry rivers. We test several techniques for improving streamflow forecasts in drylands, with mixed success.
Konrad Bogner, Katharina Liechti, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5493–5502, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5493-2017, 2017
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The enhanced availability of many different weather prediction systems nowadays makes it very difficult for flood and water resource managers to choose the most reliable and accurate forecast. In order to circumvent this problem of choice, different approaches for combining this information have been applied at the Sihl River (CH) and the results have been verified. The outcome of this study highlights the importance of forecast combination in order to improve the quality of forecast systems.
Matthew B. Switanek, Peter A. Troch, Christopher L. Castro, Armin Leuprecht, Hsin-I Chang, Rajarshi Mukherjee, and Eleonora M. C. Demaria
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2649–2666, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2649-2017, 2017
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The commonly used bias correction method called quantile mapping assumes a constant function of error correction values between modeled and observed distributions. Our article finds that this function cannot be assumed to be constant. We propose a new bias correction method, called scaled distribution mapping, that does not rely on this assumption. Furthermore, the proposed method more explicitly accounts for the frequency of rain days and the likelihood of individual events.
Tesfay G. Gebremicael, Yasir A. Mohamed, Pieter v. Zaag, and Eyasu Y. Hagos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2127–2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2127-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2127-2017, 2017
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This study was conducted to understand the spatio-temporal variations of streamflow in the Tekezē basin. Results showed rainfall over the basin did not significantly change. However, streamflow experienced high variabilities at seasonal and annual scales. Further studies are needed to verify hydrological changes by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. Findings are useful as prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological processes.
Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, Florian Pappenberger, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1573–1591, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017, 2017
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The use of general circulation model outputs for streamflow forecasting has developed in the last decade. In parallel, traditional streamflow forecasting is commonly based on historical data. This study investigates the impact of conditioning historical data based on circulation model precipitation forecasts on seasonal streamflow forecast quality. Results highlighted a trade-off between the sharpness and reliability of forecasts.
Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3601–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, 2016
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This study investigates the way bias correcting precipitation forecasts can improve the skill of streamflow forecasts at extended lead times. Eight variants of bias correction approaches based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods are applied to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the streamflow forecasts. One of the main results of the study is that distribution mapping of daily values is successful in improving forecast reliability.
P. Froidevaux, J. Schwanbeck, R. Weingartner, C. Chevalier, and O. Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3903–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3903-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3903-2015, 2015
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We investigate precipitation characteristics prior to 4000 annual floods in Switzerland since 1961. The floods were preceded by heavy precipitation, but in most catchments extreme precipitation occurred only during the last 3 days prior to the flood events. Precipitation sums for earlier time periods (like e.g. 4-14 days prior to floods) were mostly average and do not correlate with the return period of the floods.
G. H. Fang, J. Yang, Y. N. Chen, and C. Zammit
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2547–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2547-2015, 2015
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This study compares the effects of five precipitation and three temperature correction methods on precipitation, temperature, and streamflow through loosely coupling RCM (RegCM) and a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) in terms of frequency-based indices and time-series-based indices. The methodology and results can be used for other regions and other RCM and hydrologic models, and for impact studies of climate change on water resources at a regional scale.
M. S. Siam and E. A. B. Eltahir
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1181–1192, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015, 2015
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This paper explains the different natural modes of interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River and also presents a new index based on the sea surface temperature (SST) over the southern Indian Ocean to forecast the flow of the Nile River. It also presents a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that can be used to predict the Nile flow based on indices of the SST in the eastern Pacific and southern Indian oceans.
D. Halwatura, A. M. Lechner, and S. Arnold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1069–1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1069-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1069-2015, 2015
G. Panthou, T. Vischel, T. Lebel, G. Quantin, and G. Molinié
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5093–5107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5093-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5093-2014, 2014
D. Masson and C. Frei
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4543–4563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4543-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4543-2014, 2014
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The question of how to utilize information from the physiography/topography in the spatial interpolation of rainfall is a long-standing discussion in the literature. In this study we test ideas that go beyond the approach in popular interpolation schemes today. The key message of our study is that these ideas can at best marginally improve interpolation accuracy, even in a region where a clear benefit would intuitively be expected.
A. Casanueva, C. Rodríguez-Puebla, M. D. Frías, and N. González-Reviriego
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 709–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-709-2014, 2014
D. H. Yan, D. Wu, R. Huang, L. N. Wang, and G. Y. Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2859–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2859-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2859-2013, 2013
F. Yusof, I. L. Kane, and Z. Yusop
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1311–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1311-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1311-2013, 2013
J. H. Lee, J. Timmermans, Z. Su, and M. Mancini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4291–4302, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4291-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4291-2012, 2012
L. Gudmundsson, J. B. Bremnes, J. E. Haugen, and T. Engen-Skaugen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3383–3390, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3383-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3383-2012, 2012
T. Bosshard, S. Kotlarski, T. Ewen, and C. Schär
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2777–2788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2777-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2777-2011, 2011
S. Nie, J. Zhu, and Y. Luo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2437–2457, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2437-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2437-2011, 2011
G. Ibarra-Berastegi, J. Saénz, A. Ezcurra, A. Elías, J. Diaz Argandoña, and I. Errasti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1895–1907, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1895-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1895-2011, 2011
R. Schiemann, R. Erdin, M. Willi, C. Frei, M. Berenguer, and D. Sempere-Torres
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1515–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1515-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1515-2011, 2011
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Short summary
The inconsistent changes in temperature and precipitation induced by forest cover change are very likely to affect drought condition. We use a set of statistical models to explore the relationship between forest cover change and drought change in different timescales and climate zones. We find that the influence of forest cover on droughts varies under different precipitation and temperature quantiles. Forest cover also could modulate the impacts of precipitation and temperature on drought.
The inconsistent changes in temperature and precipitation induced by forest cover change are...
