Articles | Volume 26, issue 24
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022
Research article
 | 
16 Dec 2022
Research article |  | 16 Dec 2022

River flooding mechanisms and their changes in Europe revealed by explainable machine learning

Shijie Jiang, Emanuele Bevacqua, and Jakob Zscheischler

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Cited articles

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Alfieri, L., Bisselink, B., Dottori, F., Naumann, G., de Roo, A., Salamon, P., Wyser, K., and Feyen, L.: Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world, Earth's Future, 5, 171–182, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ef000485, 2017. 
Barnes, E. A., Toms, B., Hurrell, J. W., Ebert-Uphoff, I., Anderson, C., and Anderson, D.: Indicator patterns of forced change learned by an artificial neural network, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2020MS002195, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002195, 2020. 
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Beniston, M. and Stoffel, M.: Rain-on-snow events, floods and climate change in the Alps: Events may increase with warming up to 4 degrees C and decrease thereafter, Sci. Total Environ., 571, 228–236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.146, 2016. 
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Short summary
Using a novel explainable machine learning approach, we investigated the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and day length to different peak discharges, thereby uncovering three primary flooding mechanisms widespread in European catchments. The results indicate that flooding mechanisms have changed in numerous catchments over the past 70 years. The study highlights the potential of artificial intelligence in revealing complex changes in extreme events related to climate change.
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