Articles | Volume 26, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 07 Nov 2022
A large-sample investigation into uncertain climate change impacts on high flows across Great Britain
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
currently at: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Gemma Coxon
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Jim Freer
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Canmore, Alberta,
T1W 3G1, Canada
Jan Seibert
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Thorsten Wagener
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of
Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
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Jan Seibert and Sten Bergström
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John P. Bloomfield, Mengyi Gong, Benjamin P. Marchant, Gemma Coxon, and Nans Addor
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Marit Van Tiel, Anne F. Van Loon, Jan Seibert, and Kerstin Stahl
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Glaciers can buffer streamflow during dry and warm periods, but under which circumstances can melt compensate precipitation deficits? Streamflow responses to warm and dry events were analyzed using
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Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Juan Pablo Boisier, René Garreaud, Jan Seibert, and Marc Vis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-429-2021, 2021
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Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Bettina Schaefli, and Jan Seibert
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Maria Staudinger, Stefan Seeger, Barbara Herbstritt, Michael Stoelzle, Jan Seibert, Kerstin Stahl, and Markus Weiler
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4441–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4441-2020, 2020
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Snow processes are crucial for runoff in mountainous areas, but their complexity makes water management difficult. Temperature models are widely used as they are simple and do not require much data, but not much thought is usually given to which model to use, which may lead to bad predictions. We studied the impact of many model alternatives and found that a more complex model does not necessarily perform better. Finding which processes are most important in each area is a much better strategy.
Kirsti Hakala, Nans Addor, Thibault Gobbe, Johann Ruffieux, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3815–3833, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3815-2020, 2020
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Under a changing climate, reliable information on future hydrological conditions is necessary to inform water resource management. Here, we collaborated with a hydropower company that selected streamflow and energy demand indices. Using these indices, we identified stakeholder needs and used this to tailor the production of our climate change impact projections. We show that opportunities and risks for a hydropower company depend on a range of factors beyond those covered by traditional studies.
Leonie Kiewiet, Ilja van Meerveld, Manfred Stähli, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3381–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3381-2020, 2020
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The sources of stream water are important, for instance, for predicting floods. The connectivity between streams and different (ground-)water sources can change during rain events, which affects the stream water composition. We investigated this for stream water sampled during four events and found that stream water came from different sources. The stream water composition changed gradually, and we showed that changes in solute concentrations could be partly linked to changes in connectivity.
Barbara Strobl, Simon Etter, H. J. Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert
Geosci. Commun., 3, 109–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-109-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-109-2020, 2020
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Training can deter people from joining a citizen science project but may be needed to ensure good data quality. In this study, we found that an online game that was originally developed for data quality control in a citizen science project can be used for training as well. These findings are useful for the development of training strategies for other citizen science projects because they indicate that gamified approaches might be valuable scalable training methods.
H. J. Ilja van Meerveld, James W. Kirchner, Marc J. P. Vis, Rick S. Assendelft, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4825–4834, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4825-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4825-2019, 2019
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Flowing stream networks extend and retract seasonally and in response to precipitation. This affects the distances and thus the time that it takes a water molecule to reach the flowing stream and the stream outlet. When the network is fully extended, the travel times are short, but when the network retracts, the travel times become longer and more uniform. These dynamics should be included when modeling solute or pollutant transport.
Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim E. Freer, Thorsten Wagener, Penny J. Johnes, John P. Bloomfield, Sheila Greene, Christopher J. A. Macleod, and Sim M. Reaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4011–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, 2019
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DECIPHeR (Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of Hydrology) is a new modelling framework that can be applied from small catchment to continental scales for complex river basins. This paper describes the modelling framework and its key components and demonstrates the model’s ability to be applied across a large model domain. This work highlights the potential for catchment- to continental-scale predictions of streamflow to support robust environmental management and policy decisions.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sally Rangecroft, Gemma Coxon, José Agustín Breña Naranjo, Floris Van Ogtrop, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1725–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1725-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1725-2019, 2019
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We explore the use of the classic
paired-catchmentapproach to quantify human influence on hydrological droughts. In this approach two similar catchments are compared and differences are attributed to the human activity present in one. In two case studies in UK and Australia, we found that groundwater abstraction aggravated streamflow drought by > 200 % and water transfer alleviated droughts with 25–80 %. Understanding the human influence on droughts can support water management decisions.
Judith Meyer, Irene Kohn, Kerstin Stahl, Kirsti Hakala, Jan Seibert, and Alex J. Cannon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1339-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1339-2019, 2019
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Several multivariate bias correction methods have been developed recently, but only a few studies have tested the effect of multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections. This study shows that incorporating or ignoring inter-variable relations between air temperature and precipitation can have a notable effect on the projected snowfall fraction. The effect translated to considerable consequences for the glacio-hydrological responses and streamflow components of the catchments.
Simon Etter, Barbara Strobl, Jan Seibert, and H. J. Ilja van Meerveld
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5243–5257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5243-2018, 2018
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To evaluate the potential value of streamflow estimates for hydrological model calibration, we created synthetic streamflow datasets in various temporal resolutions based on the errors in streamflow estimates of 136 citizens. Our results show that streamflow estimates of untrained citizens are too inaccurate to be useful for model calibration. If, however, the errors can be reduced by training or filtering, the estimates become useful if also a sufficient number of estimates are available.
Andreas Paul Zischg, Guido Felder, Rolf Weingartner, Niall Quinn, Gemma Coxon, Jeffrey Neal, Jim Freer, and Paul Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2759–2773, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2759-2018, 2018
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We developed a model experiment and distributed different rainfall patterns over a mountain river basin. For each rainfall scenario, we computed the flood losses with a model chain. The experiment shows that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. Basin-specific characteristics such as the location of the main settlements within the floodplains play an additional important role in determining flood losses.
Daphné Freudiger, David Mennekes, Jan Seibert, and Markus Weiler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 805–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-805-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-805-2018, 2018
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To understand glacier changes in the Swiss Alps at the large scale, long-term datasets are needed. To fill the gap between the existing glacier inventories of the Swiss Alps between 1850 and 1973, we digitized glacier outlines from topographic historical maps of Switzerland for the time periods ca. 1900 and ca. 1935. We found that > 88 % of the digitized glacier area was plausible compared to four inventories. The presented dataset is therefore valuable information for long-term glacier studies.
Jan Seibert, Marc J. P. Vis, Irene Kohn, Markus Weiler, and Kerstin Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2211–2224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2211-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2211-2018, 2018
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In many glacio-hydrological models glacier areas are assumed to be constant over time, which is a crucial limitation. Here we describe a novel approach to translate mass balances as simulated by the (glacio)hydrological model into glacier area changes. We combined the Δh approach of Huss et al. (2010) with the bucket-type model HBV and introduced a lookup table approach, which also allows periods with advancing glaciers to be represented, which is not possible with the original Huss method.
Simon Brenner, Gemma Coxon, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Jim Freer, and Andreas Hartmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 445–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-445-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-445-2018, 2018
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In this study we simulate groundwater levels with a semi-distributed karst model. Using a percentile approach we can assess the number of days exceeding or falling below selected groundwater level percentiles. We show that our approach is able to predict groundwater levels across all considered timescales up to the 75th percentile. We then use our approach to assess future changes in groundwater dynamics and show that projected climate changes may lead to generally lower groundwater levels.
Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, and Jim W. Hall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 611–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018, 2018
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Assessing the potential impacts of extreme events such as drought and flood requires large datasets of such events, especially when looking at the most severe and rare events. Using a state-of-the-art climate modelling infrastructure that is simulating large numbers of weather time series on volunteers' computers, we generate such a large dataset for the United Kingdom. The dataset covers the recent past (1900–2006) as well as two future time periods (2030s and 2080s).
Sandra Pool, Marc J. P. Vis, Rodney R. Knight, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5443–5457, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5443-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5443-2017, 2017
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This modeling study explores the effect of different model calibration criteria on the accuracy of simulated streamflow characteristics (SFCs). The results imply that one has to consider significant uncertainties when simulated time series are used to derive SFCs that were not included in the calibration. Thus, we strongly recommend calibrating the runoff model explicitly for the SFCs of interest. Our study helps improve the estimation of SFCs for ungauged catchments based on runoff models.
Katrien Van Eerdenbrugh, Stijn Van Hoey, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5315–5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, 2017
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Consistency in stage–discharge data is investigated using a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach). Various measurement stations in the UK, New Zealand and Belgium are selected based on their historical ratings information and their characteristics related to data consistency. When applying a BReach analysis on them, the methodology provides results that appear consistent with the available knowledge and thus facilitates a reliable assessment of (in)consistency in stage–discharge data.
H. J. Ilja van Meerveld, Marc J. P. Vis, and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4895–4905, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4895-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4895-2017, 2017
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We tested the usefulness of stream level class data for hydrological model calibration. Only two stream level classes, e.g. above or below a rock in the stream, were already informative, particularly when the boundary was chosen at a high stream level. There was hardly any improvement in model performance when using more than five stream level classes. These results suggest that model based streamflow time series can be obtained from citizen science based water level class data.
Tracy Ewen and Jan Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4079–4091, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4079-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4079-2016, 2016
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Games are an optimal way to teach about water resource sharing, as they allow real-world scenarios to be explored. We look at how games can be used to teach about water resource sharing, by both playing and developing water games. An evaluation of the web-based game Irrigania found Irrigania to be an effective and easy tool to incorporate into curriculum, and a course on developing water games encouraged students to think about water resource sharing in a more critical and insightful way.
Nena Griessinger, Jan Seibert, Jan Magnusson, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3895–3905, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3895-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3895-2016, 2016
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In Alpine catchments, snowmelt is a major contribution to runoff. In this study, we address the question of whether the performance of a hydrological model can be enhanced by integrating data from an external snow monitoring system. To this end, a hydrological model was driven with snowmelt input from snow models of different complexities. Best performance was obtained with a snow model, which utilized data assimilation, in particular for catchments at higher elevations and for snow-rich years.
Michal Jenicek, Jan Seibert, Massimiliano Zappa, Maria Staudinger, and Tobias Jonas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 859–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-859-2016, 2016
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We quantified how long snowmelt affects runoff, and we estimated the sensitivity of catchments to changes in snowpack. This is relevant as the increase of air temperature might cause decreased snow storage. We used time series from 14 catchments in Switzerland. On average, a decrease of maximum snow storage by 10 % caused a decrease of minimum discharge in July by 2 to 9 %. The results showed a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow in alpine catchments compared to pre-alpine catchments.
M. Rinderer, H. C. Komakech, D. Müller, G. L. B. Wiesenberg, and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3505–3516, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3505-2015, 2015
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A field method for assessing soil moisture in semi-arid conditions is proposed and tested in terms of inter-rater reliability with 40 Tanzanian farmers, students and experts. The seven wetness classes are based on qualitative indicators that one can see, feel or hear. It could be shown that the qualitative wetness classes reflect differences in volumetric water content and neither experience nor a certain level of education was a prerequisite to gain high agreement among raters.
J. E. Reynolds, S. Halldin, C. Y. Xu, J. Seibert, and A. Kauffeldt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7437-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7437-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In this study it was found that time-scale dependencies of hydrological model parameters are a result of the numerical method used in the model rather than a real time-scale-data dependence. This study further indicates that as soon as sub-daily driving data can be secured, flood forecasting in watersheds with sub-daily concentration times is possible with model parameter values inferred from long time series of daily data, as long as an appropriate numerical method is used.
M. Staudinger, M. Weiler, and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1371–1384, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1371-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1371-2015, 2015
I. K. Westerberg, L. Gong, K. J. Beven, J. Seibert, A. Semedo, C.-Y. Xu, and S. Halldin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2993–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2993-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2993-2014, 2014
P. Schneider, S. Pool, L. Strouhal, and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 875–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-875-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-875-2014, 2014
C. Teutschbein and J. Seibert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5061–5077, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5061-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5061-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Modelling flood frequency and magnitude in a glacially conditioned, heterogeneous landscape: testing the importance of land cover and land use
Direct integration of reservoirs' operations in a hydrological model for streamflow estimation: coupling a CLSTM model with MOHID-Land
Modelling the regional sensitivity of snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow generation to climate over the Canadian Prairies using a basin classification approach
To what extent does river routing matter in hydrological modeling?
Calibrating macroscale hydrological models in poorly gauged and heavily regulated basins
An advanced tool integrating failure and sensitivity analysis into novel modeling of the stormwater flood volume
airGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling with R
Stable water isotopes and tritium tracers tell the same tale: no evidence for underestimation of catchment transit times inferred by stable isotopes in StorAge Selection (SAS)-function models
Uncertainty in water transit time estimation with StorAge Selection functions and tracer data interpolation
Changes in Mediterranean flood processes and seasonality
Can the combining of wetlands with reservoir operation reduce the risk of future floods and droughts?
Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado
When best is the enemy of good – critical evaluation of performance criteria in hydrological models
The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment
Producing reliable hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs without resorting to meteorological observations
Projecting sediment export from two highly glacierized alpine catchments under climate change: Exploring non-parametric regression as an analysis tool
Using normalised difference infrared index patterns to constrain semi-distributed rainfall–runoff models in tropical nested catchments
Towards robust seasonal streamflow forecasts in mountainous catchments: impact of calibration metric selection in hydrological modeling
Revisiting the hydrological basis of the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups
Reconstructing five decades of sediment export from two glacierized high-alpine catchments in Tyrol, Austria, using nonparametric regression
Water and energy budgets over hydrological basins on short and long timescales
Hydrological response to climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region
Incorporating experimentally derived streamflow contributions into model parameterization to improve discharge prediction
Machine-learning- and deep-learning-based streamflow prediction in a hilly catchment for future scenarios using CMIP6 GCM data
River hydraulic modeling with ICESat-2 land and water surface elevation
Hydrological modeling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in urban and peri-urban environments: the case of Kifisos experimental subbasin (Athens, Greece)
Monetizing the role of water in sustaining watershed ecosystem services using a fully integrated subsurface–surface water model
Technical note: How physically based is hydrograph separation by recursive digital filtering?
A comprehensive open-source course for teaching applied hydrological modelling in Central Asia
Impact of distributed meteorological forcing on simulated snow cover and hydrological fluxes over a mid-elevation alpine micro-scale catchment
Technical note: Extending the SWAT model to transport chemicals through tile and groundwater flow
Long-term reconstruction of satellite-based precipitation, soil moisture, and snow water equivalent in China
Disentangling scatter in long-term concentration–discharge relationships: the role of event types
Simulating the hydrological impacts of land use conversion from annual crop to perennial forage in the Canadian Prairies using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform
Comparing machine learning and deep learning models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulation
How can we benefit from regime information to make more effective use of long short-term memory (LSTM) runoff models?
On the value of satellite remote sensing to reduce uncertainties of regional simulations of the Colorado River
Assessing runoff sensitivity of North American Prairie Pothole Region basins to wetland drainage using a basin classification-based virtual modelling approach
Effects of passive-storage conceptualization on modeling hydrological function and isotope dynamics in the flow system of a cockpit karst landscape
Technical note: Data assimilation and autoregression for using near-real-time streamflow observations in long short-term memory networks
Attribution of climate change and human activities to streamflow variations with a posterior distribution of hydrological simulations
A time-varying distributed unit hydrograph method considering soil moisture
Flood patterns in a catchment with mixed bedrock geology and a hilly landscape: identification of flashy runoff contributions during storm events
A graph neural network (GNN) approach to basin-scale river network learning: the role of physics-based connectivity and data fusion
Improving hydrologic models for predictions and process understanding using neural ODEs
Response of active catchment water storage capacity to a prolonged meteorological drought and asymptotic climate variation
HESS Opinions: Participatory Digital eARth Twin Hydrology systems (DARTHs) for everyone – a blueprint for hydrologists
Development of a national 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service for Australia
Future snow changes and their impact on the upstream runoff in Salween
Technical note: Do different projections matter for the Budyko framework?
Pamela E. Tetford and Joseph R. Desloges
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3977–3998, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3977-2023, 2023
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An efficient regional flood frequency model relates drainage area to discharge, with a major assumption of similar basin conditions. In a landscape with variable glacial deposits and land use, we characterize varying hydrological function using 28 explanatory variables. We demonstrate that (1) a heterogeneous landscape requires objective model selection criteria to optimize the fit of flow data, and (2) incorporating land use as a predictor variable improves the drainage area to discharge model.
Ana Ramos Oliveira, Tiago Brito Ramos, Lígia Pinto, and Ramiro Neves
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3875–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3875-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3875-2023, 2023
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This paper intends to demonstrate the adequacy of a hybrid solution to overcome the difficulties related to the incorporation of human behavior when modeling hydrological processes. Two models were implemented, one to estimate the outflow of a reservoir and the other to simulate the hydrological processes of the watershed. With both models feeding each other, results show that the proposed approach significantly improved the streamflow estimation downstream of the reservoir.
Zhihua He, Kevin Shook, Christopher Spence, John W. Pomeroy, and Colin Whitfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3525–3546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3525-2023, 2023
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This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on snowmelt, soil moisture, and streamflow over the Canadian Prairies. The entire prairie region was divided into seven basin types. We found strong variations of hydrological sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes in different land covers and basins, which suggests that different water management and adaptation methods are needed to address enhanced water stress due to expected climate change in different regions of the prairies.
Nicolás Cortés-Salazar, Nicolás Vásquez, Naoki Mizukami, Pablo A. Mendoza, and Ximena Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3505–3524, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3505-2023, 2023
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This paper shows how important river models can be for water resource applications that involve hydrological models and, in particular, parameter calibration. To this end, we conduct numerical experiments in a pilot basin using a combination of hydrologic model simulations obtained from a large sample of parameter sets and different routing methods. We find that routing can affect streamflow simulations, even at monthly time steps; the choice of parameters; and relevant streamflow metrics.
Dung Trung Vu, Thanh Duc Dang, Francesca Pianosi, and Stefano Galelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3485–3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3485-2023, 2023
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The calibration of hydrological models over extensive spatial domains is often challenged by the lack of data on river discharge and the operations of hydraulic infrastructures. Here, we use satellite data to address the lack of data that could unintentionally bias the calibration process. Our study is underpinned by a computational framework that quantifies this bias and provides a safe approach to the calibration of models in poorly gauged and heavily regulated basins.
Francesco Fatone, Bartosz Szeląg, Przemysław Kowal, Arthur McGarity, Adam Kiczko, Grzegorz Wałek, Ewa Wojciechowska, Michał Stachura, and Nicolas Caradot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3329–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3329-2023, 2023
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A novel methodology for the development of a stormwater network performance simulator including advanced risk assessment was proposed. The applied tool enables the analysis of the influence of spatial variability in catchment and stormwater network characteristics on the relation between (SWMM) model parameters and specific flood volume, as an alternative approach to mechanistic models. The proposed method can be used at the stage of catchment model development and spatial planning management.
Olivier Delaigue, Pierre Brigode, Guillaume Thirel, and Laurent Coron
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3293–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023, 2023
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Teaching hydrological modeling is an important, but difficult, matter. It requires appropriate tools and teaching material. In this article, we present the airGRteaching package, which is an open-source software tool relying on widely used hydrological models. This tool proposes an interface and numerous hydrological modeling exercises representing a wide range of hydrological applications. We show how this tool can be applied to simple but real-life cases.
Siyuan Wang, Markus Hrachowitz, Gerrit Schoups, and Christine Stumpp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3083–3114, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3083-2023, 2023
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This study shows that previously reported underestimations of water ages are most likely not due to the use of seasonally variable tracers. Rather, these underestimations can be largely attributed to the choices of model approaches which rely on assumptions not frequently met in catchment hydrology. We therefore strongly advocate avoiding the use of this model type in combination with seasonally variable tracers and instead adopting StorAge Selection (SAS)-based or comparable model formulations.
Arianna Borriero, Rohini Kumar, Tam V. Nguyen, Jan H. Fleckenstein, and Stefanie R. Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2989–3004, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2989-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2989-2023, 2023
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We analyzed the uncertainty of the water transit time distribution (TTD) arising from model input (interpolated tracer data) and structure (StorAge Selection, SAS, functions). We found that uncertainty was mainly associated with temporal interpolation, choice of SAS function, nonspatial interpolation, and low-flow conditions. It is important to characterize the specific uncertainty sources and their combined effects on TTD, as this has relevant implications for both water quantity and quality.
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue, Michel Lang, Emmanuel Paquet, Luc Neppel, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, 2023
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Mediterranean floods are causing major damage, and recent studies have shown that, despite the increase in intense rainfall, there has been no increase in river floods. This study reveals that the seasonality of floods changed in the Mediterranean Basin during 1959–2021. There was also an increased frequency of floods linked to short episodes of intense rain, associated with a decrease in soil moisture. These changes need to be taken into consideration to adapt flood warning systems.
Yanfeng Wu, Jingxuan Sun, Boting Hu, Y. Jun Xu, Alain N. Rousseau, and Guangxin Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2725–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2725-2023, 2023
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Reservoirs and wetlands are important regulators of watershed hydrology, which should be considered when projecting floods and droughts. We first coupled wetlands and reservoir operations into a semi-spatially-explicit hydrological model and then applied it in a case study involving a large river basin in northeast China. We found that, overall, the risk of future floods and droughts will increase further even under the combined influence of reservoirs and wetlands.
Peishi Jiang, Pin Shuai, Alexander Sun, Maruti K. Mudunuru, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2621–2644, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2621-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2621-2023, 2023
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We developed a novel deep learning approach to estimate the parameters of a computationally expensive hydrological model on only a few hundred realizations. Our approach leverages the knowledge obtained by data-driven analysis to guide the design of the deep learning model used for parameter estimation. We demonstrate this approach by calibrating a state-of-the-art hydrological model against streamflow and evapotranspiration observations at a snow-dominated watershed in Colorado.
Guillaume Cinkus, Naomi Mazzilli, Hervé Jourde, Andreas Wunsch, Tanja Liesch, Nataša Ravbar, Zhao Chen, and Nico Goldscheider
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2397–2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2397-2023, 2023
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The Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) is a performance criterion extensively used to evaluate hydrological models. We conduct a critical study on the KGE and its variant to examine counterbalancing errors. Results show that, when assessing a simulation, concurrent over- and underestimation of discharge can lead to an overall higher criterion score without an associated increase in model relevance. We suggest that one carefully choose performance criteria and use scaling factors.
Dapeng Feng, Hylke Beck, Kathryn Lawson, and Chaopeng Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2357–2373, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2357-2023, 2023
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Powerful hybrid models (called δ or delta models) embrace the fundamental learning capability of AI and can also explain the physical processes. Here we test their performance when applied to regions not in the training data. δ models rivaled the accuracy of state-of-the-art AI models under the data-dense scenario and even surpassed them for the data-sparse one. They generalize well due to the physical structure included. δ models could be ideal candidates for global hydrologic assessment.
Simon Ricard, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Antoine Thiboult, and François Anctil
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2375–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2375-2023, 2023
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A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations. Results confirm that the proposed workflow produces equivalent projections of the seasonal mean flows in comparison to a conventional hydroclimatic modelling approach. The proposed approach supports the participation of end-users in interpreting the impact of climate change on water resources.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, and Axel Bronstert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1063, 2023
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How suspended sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas responds to future climate change is hardly assessable, as many interacting processes are involved and appropriate physical models are lacking. We present the first study to our knowledge exploring machine learning to project sediment export until 2100 in two high-alpine catchments. We find that uncertainties due to methodological limitations are small until 2070. Negative trends imply that ‘peak sediment’ may have already passed.
Nutchanart Sriwongsitanon, Wasana Jandang, James Williams, Thienchart Suwawong, Ekkarin Maekan, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2149–2171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2149-2023, 2023
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We developed predictive semi-distributed rainfall–runoff models for nested sub-catchments in the upper Ping basin, which yielded better or similar performance compared to calibrated lumped models. The normalised difference infrared index proves to be an effective proxy for distributed root zone moisture capacity over sub-catchments and is well correlated with the percentage of evergreen forest. In validation, soil moisture simulations appeared to be highly correlated with the soil wetness index.
Diego Araya, Pablo A. Mendoza, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, and James McPhee
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-116, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Dynamical systems are used by many agencies worldwide to produce seasonal streamflow forecasts, which are critical for decision-making. Such systems rely on hydrology models, which contain parameters that are typically estimated using a target performance metric (i.e., objective function). This study explores the effects of this decision across mountainous basins in Chile, illustrating tradeoffs between seasonal forecast quality and the models' capability to simulate streamflow characteristics.
Yuchan Chen, Xiuzhi Chen, Meimei Xue, Chuanxun Yang, Wei Zheng, Jun Cao, Wenting Yan, and Wenping Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1929–1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1929-2023, 2023
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This study addresses the quantification and estimation of the watershed-characteristic-related parameter (Pw) in the Budyko framework with the principle of hydrologically similar groups. The results show that Pw is closely related to soil moisture and fractional vegetation cover, and the relationship varies across specific hydrologic similarity groups. The overall satisfactory performance of the Pw estimation model improves the applicability of the Budyko framework for global runoff estimation.
Lena Katharina Schmidt, Till Francke, Peter Martin Grosse, Christoph Mayer, and Axel Bronstert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1841–1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1841-2023, 2023
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We present a suitable method to reconstruct sediment export from decadal records of hydroclimatic predictors (discharge, precipitation, temperature) and shorter suspended sediment measurements. This lets us fill the knowledge gap on how sediment export from glacierized high-alpine areas has responded to climate change. We find positive trends in sediment export from the two investigated nested catchments with step-like increases around 1981 which are linked to crucial changes in glacier melt.
Samantha Petch, Bo Dong, Tristan Quaife, Robert P. King, and Keith Haines
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1723–1744, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, 2023
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Gravitational measurements of water storage from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) can improve understanding of the water budget. We produce flux estimates over large river catchments based on observations that close the monthly water budget and ensure consistency with GRACE on short and long timescales. We use energy data to provide additional constraints and balance the long-term energy budget. These flux estimates are important for evaluating climate models.
Ting Su, Chiyuan Miao, Qingyun Duan, Jiaojiao Gou, Xiaoying Guo, and Xi Zhao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1477–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1477-2023, 2023
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The Three-River Source Region (TRSR) plays an extremely important role in water resources security and ecological and environmental protection in China and even all of Southeast Asia. This study used the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrologic model linked with the degree-day factor algorithm to simulate the runoff change in the TRSR. These results will help to guide current and future regulation and management of water resources in the TRSR.
Andreas Hartmann, Jean-Lionel Payeur-Poirier, and Luisa Hopp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1325-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1325-2023, 2023
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We advance our understanding of including information derived from environmental tracers into hydrological modeling. We present a simple approach that integrates streamflow observations and tracer-derived streamflow contributions for model parameter estimation. We consider multiple observed streamflow components and their variation over time to quantify the impact of their inclusion for streamflow prediction at the catchment scale.
Dharmaveer Singh, Manu Vardhan, Rakesh Sahu, Debrupa Chatterjee, Pankaj Chauhan, and Shiyin Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1047–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1047-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1047-2023, 2023
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This study examines, for the first time, the potential of various machine learning models in streamflow prediction over the Sutlej River basin (rainfall-dominated zone) in western Himalaya during the period 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) and its relationship to climate variability. The mean ensemble of the model results shows that the mean annual streamflow of the Sutlej River is expected to rise between the 2050s and 2080s by 0.79 to 1.43 % for SSP585 and by 0.87 to 1.10 % for SSP245.
Monica Coppo Frias, Suxia Liu, Xingguo Mo, Karina Nielsen, Heidi Ranndal, Liguang Jiang, Jun Ma, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1011–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1011-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1011-2023, 2023
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This paper uses remote sensing data from ICESat-2 to calibrate a 1D hydraulic model. With the model, we can make estimations of discharge and water surface elevation, which are important indicators in flooding risk assessment. ICESat-2 data give an added value, thanks to the 0.7 m resolution, which allows the measurement of narrow river streams. In addition, ICESat-2 provides measurements on the river dry portion geometry that can be included in the model.
Evgenia Koltsida, Nikos Mamassis, and Andreas Kallioras
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 917–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-917-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-917-2023, 2023
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Daily and hourly rainfall observations were inputted to a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of rainfall temporal resolution on a discharge simulation. Results indicated that groundwater flow parameters were more sensitive to daily time intervals, and channel routing parameters were more influential for hourly time intervals. This study suggests that the SWAT model appears to be a reliable tool to predict discharge in a mixed-land-use basin.
Tariq Aziz, Steven K. Frey, David R. Lapen, Susan Preston, Hazen A. J. Russell, Omar Khader, Andre R. Erler, and Edward A. Sudicky
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-25, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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The study determines the value of water towards ecosystem services production in an agricultural watershed in Ontario, Canada. It uses a computer model and an economic valuation approach to determine how subsurface and surface water affect ecosystem services supply. The results show that subsurface water plays a critical role in maintaining ecosystem services. The study informs on the sustainable use of subsurface water and introduces a new method for managing watershed ecosystem services.
Klaus Eckhardt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 495–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-495-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-495-2023, 2023
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An important hydrological issue is to identify components of streamflow that react to precipitation with different degrees of attenuation and delay. From the multitude of methods that have been developed for this so-called hydrograph separation, a specific, frequently used one is singled out here. It is shown to be derived from plausible physical principles. This increases confidence in its results.
Beatrice Sabine Marti, Aidar Zhumabaev, and Tobias Siegfried
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 319–330, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-319-2023, 2023
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Numerical modelling is often used for climate impact studies in water resources management. It is, however, not yet highly accessible to many students of hydrology in Central Asia. One big hurdle for new learners is the preparation of relevant data prior to the actual modelling. We present a robust, open-source workflow and comprehensive teaching material that can be used by teachers and by students for self study.
Aniket Gupta, Alix Reverdy, Jean-Martial Cohard, Basile Hector, Marc Descloitres, Jean-Pierre Vandervaere, Catherine Coulaud, Romain Biron, Lucie Liger, Reed Maxwell, Jean-Gabriel Valay, and Didier Voisin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 191–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-191-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-191-2023, 2023
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Patchy snow cover during spring impacts mountainous ecosystems on a large range of spatio-temporal scales. A hydrological model simulated such snow patchiness at 10 m resolution. Slope and orientation controls precipitation, radiation, and wind generate differences in snowmelt, subsurface storage, streamflow, and evapotranspiration. The snow patchiness increases the duration of the snowmelt to stream and subsurface storage, which sustains the plants and streamflow later in the summer.
Hendrik Rathjens, Jens Kiesel, Michael Winchell, Jeffrey Arnold, and Robin Sur
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 159–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-159-2023, 2023
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The SWAT model can simulate the transport of water-soluble chemicals through the landscape but neglects the transport through groundwater or agricultural tile drains. These transport pathways are, however, important to assess the amount of chemicals in streams. We added this capability to the model, which significantly improved the simulation. The representation of all transport pathways in the model enables watershed managers to develop robust strategies for reducing chemicals in streams.
Wencong Yang, Hanbo Yang, Changming Li, Taihua Wang, Ziwei Liu, Qingfang Hu, and Dawen Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6427–6441, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6427-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6427-2022, 2022
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We produced a daily 0.1° dataset of precipitation, soil moisture, and snow water equivalent in 1981–2017 across China via reconstructions. The dataset used global background data and local on-site data as forcing input and satellite-based data as reconstruction benchmarks. This long-term high-resolution national hydrological dataset is valuable for national investigations of hydrological processes.
Felipe A. Saavedra, Andreas Musolff, Jana von Freyberg, Ralf Merz, Stefano Basso, and Larisa Tarasova
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6227–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6227-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6227-2022, 2022
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Nitrate contamination of rivers from agricultural sources is a challenge for water quality management. During runoff events, different transport paths within the catchment might be activated, generating a variety of responses in nitrate concentration in stream water. Using nitrate samples from 184 German catchments and a runoff event classification, we show that hydrologic connectivity during runoff events is a key control of nitrate transport from catchments to streams in our study domain.
Marcos R. C. Cordeiro, Kang Liang, Henry F. Wilson, Jason Vanrobaeys, David A. Lobb, Xing Fang, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5917–5931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5917-2022, 2022
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This study addresses the issue of increasing interest in the hydrological impacts of converting cropland to perennial forage cover in the Canadian Prairies. By developing customized models using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform, this long-term (1992–2013) modelling study is expected to provide stakeholders with science-based information regarding the hydrological impacts of land use conversion from annual crop to perennial forage cover in the Canadian Prairies.
Yuhang Zhang, Aizhong Ye, Phu Nguyen, Bita Analui, Soroosh Sorooshian, Kuolin Hsu, and Yuxuan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-377, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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We compared probabilistic long short-term memory (PLSTM) model and quantile regression forest model (QRF). The results show the QRF model is more efficient, taking only half the time of the PLSTM model to do all the experiments in terms of model efficiency, the QRF model and the PLSTM model are comparable in terms of probabilistic (multi-point) prediction, the QRF model performs better in small watersheds and the PLSTM model performs better in large watersheds.
Reyhaneh Hashemi, Pierre Brigode, Pierre-André Garambois, and Pierre Javelle
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5793–5816, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5793-2022, 2022
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Hydrologists have long dreamed of a tool that could adequately predict runoff in catchments. Data-driven long short-term memory (LSTM) models appear very promising to the hydrology community in this respect. Here, we have sought to benefit from traditional practices in hydrology to improve the effectiveness of LSTM models. We discovered that one LSTM parameter has a hydrologic interpretation and that there is a need to increase the data and to tune two parameters, thereby improving predictions.
Mu Xiao, Giuseppe Mascaro, Zhaocheng Wang, Kristen M. Whitney, and Enrique R. Vivoni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5627–5646, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5627-2022, 2022
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As the major water resource in the southwestern United States, the Colorado River is experiencing decreases in naturalized streamflow and is predicted to face severe challenges under future climate scenarios. Here, we demonstrate the value of Earth observing satellites to improve and build confidence in the spatiotemporal simulations from regional hydrologic models for assessing the sensitivity of the Colorado River to climate change and supporting regional water managers.
Christopher Spence, Zhihua He, Kevin R. Shook, John W. Pomeroy, Colin J. Whitfield, and Jared D. Wolfe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5555–5575, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5555-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5555-2022, 2022
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We learnt how streamflow from small creeks could be altered by wetland removal in the Canadian Prairies, where this practice is pervasive. Every creek basin in the region was placed into one of seven groups. We selected one of these groups and used its traits to simulate streamflow. The model worked well enough so that we could trust the results even if we removed the wetlands. Wetland removal did not change low flow amounts very much, but it doubled high flow and tripled average flow.
Guangxuan Li, Xi Chen, Zhicai Zhang, Lichun Wang, and Chris Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5515–5534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5515-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5515-2022, 2022
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We developed a coupled flow–tracer model to understand the effects of passive storage on modeling hydrological function and isotope dynamics in a karst flow system. Models with passive storages show improvement in matching isotope dynamics performance, and the improved performance also strongly depends on the number and location of passive storages. Our results also suggested that the solute transport is primarily controlled by advection and hydrodynamic dispersion in the steep hillslope unit.
Grey S. Nearing, Daniel Klotz, Jonathan M. Frame, Martin Gauch, Oren Gilon, Frederik Kratzert, Alden Keefe Sampson, Guy Shalev, and Sella Nevo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5493–5513, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5493-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5493-2022, 2022
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When designing flood forecasting models, it is necessary to use all available data to achieve the most accurate predictions possible. This manuscript explores two basic ways of ingesting near-real-time streamflow data into machine learning streamflow models. The point we want to make is that when working in the context of machine learning (instead of traditional hydrology models that are based on
bio-geophysics), it is not necessary to use complex statistical methods for injecting sparse data.
Xiongpeng Tang, Guobin Fu, Silong Zhang, Chao Gao, Guoqing Wang, Zhenxin Bao, Yanli Liu, Cuishan Liu, and Junliang Jin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5315–5339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5315-2022, 2022
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In this study, we proposed a new framework that considered the uncertainties of model simulations in quantifying the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to streamflow changes. Then, the Lancang River basin was selected for the case study. The results of quantitative analysis using the new framework showed that the reason for the decrease in the streamflow at Yunjinghong station was mainly human activities.
Bin Yi, Lu Chen, Hansong Zhang, Vijay P. Singh, Ping Jiang, Yizhuo Liu, Hexiang Guo, and Hongya Qiu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5269–5289, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5269-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5269-2022, 2022
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An improved GIS-derived distributed unit hydrograph routing method considering time-varying soil moisture was proposed for flow routing. The method considered the changes of time-varying soil moisture and rainfall intensity. The response of underlying surface to the soil moisture content was considered an important factor in this study. The SUH, DUH, TDUH and proposed routing methods (TDUH-MC) were used for flood forecasts, and the simulated results were compared and discussed.
Audrey Douinot, Jean François Iffly, Cyrille Tailliez, Claude Meisch, and Laurent Pfister
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5185–5206, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5185-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5185-2022, 2022
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The objective of the paper is to highlight the seasonal and singular shift of the transfer time distributions of two catchments (≅10 km2).
Based on 2 years of rainfall and discharge observations, we compare variations in the properties of TTDs with the physiographic characteristics of catchment areas and the eco-hydrological cycle. The paper eventually aims to deduce several factors conducive to particularly rapid and concentrated water transfers, which leads to flash floods.
Alexander Y. Sun, Peishi Jiang, Zong-Liang Yang, Yangxinyu Xie, and Xingyuan Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5163–5184, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5163-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5163-2022, 2022
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High-resolution river modeling is of great interest to local governments and stakeholders for flood-hazard mitigation. This work presents a physics-guided, machine learning (ML) framework for combining the strengths of high-resolution process-based river network models with a graph-based ML model capable of modeling spatiotemporal processes. Results show that the ML model can approximate the dynamics of the process model with high fidelity, and data fusion further improves the forecasting skill.
Marvin Höge, Andreas Scheidegger, Marco Baity-Jesi, Carlo Albert, and Fabrizio Fenicia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5085–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5085-2022, 2022
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Neural ODEs fuse physics-based models with deep learning: neural networks substitute terms in differential equations that represent the mechanistic structure of the system. The approach combines the flexibility of machine learning with physical constraints for inter- and extrapolation. We demonstrate that neural ODE models achieve state-of-the-art predictive performance while keeping full interpretability of model states and processes in hydrologic modelling over multiple catchments.
Jing Tian, Zhengke Pan, Shenglian Guo, Jiabo Yin, Yanlai Zhou, and Jun Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4853–4874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4853-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4853-2022, 2022
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Most of the literature has focused on the runoff response to climate change, while neglecting the impacts of the potential variation in the active catchment water storage capacity (ACWSC) that plays an essential role in the transfer of climate inputs to the catchment runoff. This study aims to systematically identify the response of the ACWSC to a long-term meteorological drought and asymptotic climate change.
Riccardo Rigon, Giuseppe Formetta, Marialaura Bancheri, Niccolò Tubini, Concetta D'Amato, Olaf David, and Christian Massari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4773–4800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, 2022
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The
Digital Earth(DE) metaphor is very useful for both end users and hydrological modelers. We analyse different categories of models, with the view of making them part of a Digital eARth Twin Hydrology system (called DARTH). We also stress the idea that DARTHs are not models in and of themselves, rather they need to be built on an appropriate information technology infrastructure. It is remarked that DARTHs have to, by construction, support the open-science movement and its ideas.
Hapu Arachchige Prasantha Hapuarachchi, Mohammed Abdul Bari, Aynul Kabir, Mohammad Mahadi Hasan, Fitsum Markos Woldemeskel, Nilantha Gamage, Patrick Daniel Sunter, Xiaoyong Sophie Zhang, David Ewen Robertson, James Clement Bennett, and Paul Martinus Feikema
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4801–4821, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4801-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4801-2022, 2022
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Methodology for developing an operational 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service for Australia is presented. The methodology is tested for 100 catchments to learn the characteristics of different NWP rainfall forecasts, the effect of post-processing, and the optimal ensemble size and bootstrapping parameters. Forecasts are generated using NWP rainfall products post-processed by the CHyPP model, the GR4H hydrologic model, and the ERRIS streamflow post-processor inbuilt in the SWIFT package
Chenhao Chai, Lei Wang, Deliang Chen, Jing Zhou, Hu Liu, Jingtian Zhang, Yuanwei Wang, Tao Chen, and Ruishun Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4657–4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4657-2022, 2022
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This work quantifies future snow changes and their impacts on hydrology in the upper Salween River (USR) under SSP126 and SSP585 using a cryosphere–hydrology model. Future warm–wet climate is not conducive to the development of snow. The rain–snow-dominated pattern of runoff will shift to a rain-dominated pattern after the 2040s under SSP585 but is unchanged under SSP126. The findings improve our understanding of cryosphere–hydrology processes and can assist water resource management in the USR.
Remko C. Nijzink and Stanislaus J. Schymanski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4575–4585, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4575-2022, 2022
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Most catchments plot close to the empirical Budyko curve, which allows for the estimation of the long-term mean annual evaporation and runoff. The Budyko curve can be defined as a function of a wetness index or a dryness index. We found that differences can occur and that there is an uncertainty due to the different formulations.
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Short summary
This study modelled the impact of climate change on river high flows across Great Britain (GB). Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows along the west coast of GB by 2050–2075. In contrast, average flows decreased across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties; the climate projections were the largest source of uncertainty overall but hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in some regions.
This study modelled the impact of climate change on river high flows across Great Britain (GB)....
