Articles | Volume 26, issue 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5535-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 07 Nov 2022
| 07 Nov 2022
A large-sample investigation into uncertain climate change impacts on high flows across Great Britain
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
currently at: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Gemma Coxon
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Jim Freer
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Canmore, Alberta,
T1W 3G1, Canada
Jan Seibert
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Thorsten Wagener
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1UJ, UK
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK
Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of
Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A comparison of hydrological impacts from two ensembles of regional climate projections with a range of climate sensitivities A. Kay 10.1007/s10113-025-02426-5
- Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain W. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130074
- A New Digital Twin for Climate Change Adaptation, Water Management, and Disaster Risk Reduction (HIP Digital Twin) H. Henriksen et al. 10.3390/w15010025
- Spatial downscaling of precipitation for hydrological modelling: Assessing a simple method and its application under climate change in Britain A. Kay et al. 10.1002/hyp.14823
- Physically-based modelling of UK river flows under climate change B. Smith et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1468855
- Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections G. Aitken et al. 10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
- Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach C. Lyddon et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024
- The effect of uncertain river forcing on the thermohaline properties of the North West European Shelf Seas S. Zedler et al. 10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102196
- Adapting water resource systems to a changing future: challenges for UK hydrology in the 21st century J. Hall & A. Murgatroyd 10.1098/rsta.2024.0278
- A global streamflow indices time series dataset for large-sample hydrological analyses on streamflow regime (until 2022) X. Chen et al. 10.5194/essd-15-4463-2023
- Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels S. Parry et al. 10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
- A Data‐Driven Analysis of Streamflow Pattern Recognition and Seasonal Transition Changes C. Wen et al. 10.1002/hyp.70226
- Climate Change Impacts on Irish River Flows: High Resolution Scenarios and Comparison with CORDEX and CMIP6 Ensembles C. Murphy et al. 10.1007/s11269-023-03458-4
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A comparison of hydrological impacts from two ensembles of regional climate projections with a range of climate sensitivities A. Kay 10.1007/s10113-025-02426-5
- Current and future risk of unprecedented hydrological droughts in Great Britain W. Chan et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130074
- A New Digital Twin for Climate Change Adaptation, Water Management, and Disaster Risk Reduction (HIP Digital Twin) H. Henriksen et al. 10.3390/w15010025
- Spatial downscaling of precipitation for hydrological modelling: Assessing a simple method and its application under climate change in Britain A. Kay et al. 10.1002/hyp.14823
- Physically-based modelling of UK river flows under climate change B. Smith et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1468855
- Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections G. Aitken et al. 10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
- Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach C. Lyddon et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024
- The effect of uncertain river forcing on the thermohaline properties of the North West European Shelf Seas S. Zedler et al. 10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102196
- Adapting water resource systems to a changing future: challenges for UK hydrology in the 21st century J. Hall & A. Murgatroyd 10.1098/rsta.2024.0278
- A global streamflow indices time series dataset for large-sample hydrological analyses on streamflow regime (until 2022) X. Chen et al. 10.5194/essd-15-4463-2023
- Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels S. Parry et al. 10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
- A Data‐Driven Analysis of Streamflow Pattern Recognition and Seasonal Transition Changes C. Wen et al. 10.1002/hyp.70226
- Climate Change Impacts on Irish River Flows: High Resolution Scenarios and Comparison with CORDEX and CMIP6 Ensembles C. Murphy et al. 10.1007/s11269-023-03458-4
Latest update: 11 Aug 2025
Short summary
This study modelled the impact of climate change on river high flows across Great Britain (GB). Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows along the west coast of GB by 2050–2075. In contrast, average flows decreased across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties; the climate projections were the largest source of uncertainty overall but hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in some regions.
This study modelled the impact of climate change on river high flows across Great Britain (GB)....
