Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jun 2021
Research article |
| 18 Jun 2021
Changes in the simulation of atmospheric instability over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation
Santos J. González-Rojí
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia
Department of Mathematics, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
TECNALIA, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Parque Tecnológico de Álava, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
Jon Sáenz
Department of Physics, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Leioa, Spain
Plentziako Itsas Estazioa (BEGIK), University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Plentzia, Spain
Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi
Department of Energy Engineering, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Bilbao, Spain
Plentziako Itsas Estazioa (BEGIK), University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Plentzia, Spain
Related authors
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-119, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainties in model-proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-119, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainties in model-proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Jon Sáenz, Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia, Ganix Esnaola, Santos J. González-Rojí, Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi, and Alain Ulazia
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3221–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3221-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new diagram for the verification of vector variables (wind, current, etc.) generated by multiple models against a set of observations is presented in this package. It has been designed as a generalization of the Taylor diagram for two-dimensional quantities. It is based on the analysis of the two-dimensional structure of the mean squared error matrix between model and observations, and it allows for an easy assessment of both bias and directional errors as well.
I. Herrero, A. Ezcurra, J. Areitio, J. Diaz-Argandoña, G. Ibarra-Berastegi, and J. Saenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6467-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6467-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
G. Esnaola, J. Sáenz, E. Zorita, A. Fontán, V. Valencia, and P. Lazure
Ocean Sci., 9, 655–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, 2013
A. Fontán, G. Esnaola, J. Sáenz, and M. González
Ocean Sci., 9, 399–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-399-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-399-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
Seasonal crop yield prediction with SEAS5 long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
Pan evaporation is increased by submerged macrophytes
Evaluation of water flux predictive models developed using eddy-covariance observations and machine learning: a meta-analysis
Characterizing basin-scale precipitation gradients in the Third Pole region using a high-resolution atmospheric simulation-based dataset
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
A principal component based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) statistics
Modelling evaporation with local, regional and global BROOK90 frameworks: importance of parameterization and forcing
Hydrological concept formation inside long short-term memory (LSTM) networks
A two-step merging strategy for incorporating multi-source precipitation products and gauge observations using machine learning classification and regression over China
Hydrometeorological evaluation of two nowcasting systems for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with operational considerations
On the links between sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation and high discharge in Switzerland and Europe
Regional, multi-decadal analysis on the Loire River basin reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature
Investigating the response of leaf area index to droughts in southern African vegetation using observations and model simulations
Recent decrease in summer precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula closely links to reduction in local moisture recycling
Exploring the possible role of satellite-based rainfall data in estimating inter- and intra-annual global rainfall erosivity
Critical transitions in the hydrological system: early-warning signals and network analysis
Testing a maximum evaporation theory over saturated land: implications for potential evaporation estimation
The role of morphology in the spatial distribution of short-duration rainfall extremes in Italy
Impact of correcting sub-daily climate model biases for hydrological studies
The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought: the impact of its definition on occurrences and recent changes
Reconstructing climate trends adds skills to seasonal reference crop evapotranspiration forecasting
Influence of initial soil moisture in a regional climate model study over West Africa – Part 1: Impact on the climate mean
Influence of initial soil moisture in a regional climate model study over West Africa – Part 2: Impact on the climate extremes
Compound flood impact forecasting: integrating fluvial and flash flood impact assessments into a unified system
Ensemble streamflow forecasting over a cascade reservoir catchment with integrated hydrometeorological modeling and machine learning
Machine-learning methods to assess the effects of a non-linear damage spectrum taking into account soil moisture on winter wheat yields in Germany
Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean area: contrasting two different models for moisture source identification
Flexible and consistent quantile estimation for intensity–duration–frequency curves
Evaluation of Asian summer precipitation in different configurations of a high-resolution general circulation model in a range of decision-relevant spatial scales
Rainfall-induced shallow landslides and soil wetness: comparison of physically based and probabilistic predictions
Land use and climate change effects on water yield from East African forested water towers
Easy-to-use spatial random-forest-based downscaling-calibration method for producing precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Theresa Boas, Heye Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-28, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of one state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop production using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications in generating variables of interest for stakeholders such as annual crop productivity for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model improvements.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Brigitta Simon-Gáspár, Gábor Soós, and Angela Anda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, it is extremely important to determine evaporation as accurately as possible. In nature, there are sediments and macrophytes in the open waters; thus, one of the aims was to investigate their effect on evaporation. The second aim of this paper was to estimate daily evaporation by using different models, which, according to results, have high priority in the evaporation prediction. Water management can obtain useful information from the results of the current research.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Mingjuan Xie, Chen Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yuangang Wang, Xiuliang Yuan, Xiaofei Ma, Wenqiang Zhang, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4603–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There have been many machine learning simulation studies based on eddy-covariance observations for water flux and evapotranspiration. We performed a meta-analysis of such studies to clarify the impact of different algorithms and predictors, etc., on the reported prediction accuracy. It can, to some extent, guide future global water flux modeling studies and help us better understand the terrestrial ecosystem water cycle.
Yaozhi Jiang, Kun Yang, Hua Yang, Hui Lu, Yingying Chen, Xu Zhou, Jing Sun, Yuan Yang, and Yan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4587–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study quantified the altitudinal precipitation gradients (PGs) over the Third Pole (TP). Most sub-basins in the TP have positive PGs, and negative PGs are found in the Himalayas, the Hengduan Mountains and the western Kunlun. PGs are positively correlated with wind speed but negatively correlated with relative humidity. In addition, PGs tend to be positive at smaller spatial scales compared to those at larger scales. The findings can assist precipitation interpolation in the data-sparse TP.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-233, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-233, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, e.g., for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, Rico Kronenberg, Thomas Grünwald, and Christian Bernhofer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3177–3239, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3177-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In the study we analysed the uncertainties of the meteorological data and model parameterization for evaporation modelling. We have taken a physically based lumped BROOK90 model and applied it in three different frameworks using global, regional and local datasets. Validating the simulations with eddy-covariance data from five stations in Germany, we found that the accuracy model parameterization plays a bigger role than the quality of the meteorological forcing.
Thomas Lees, Steven Reece, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Jens De Bruijn, Reetik Kumar Sahu, Peter Greve, Louise Slater, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3079–3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3079-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the accuracy of deep learning rainfall-runoff models, we are currently uncertain of what these models have learned. In this study we explore the internals of one deep learning architecture and demonstrate that the model learns about intermediate hydrological stores of soil moisture and snow water, despite never having seen data about these processes during training. Therefore, we find evidence that the deep learning approach learns a physically realistic mapping from inputs to outputs.
Huajin Lei, Hongyu Zhao, and Tianqi Ao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2969–2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2969-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
How to combine multi-source precipitation data effectively is one of the hot topics in hydrometeorological research. This study presents a two-step merging strategy based on machine learning for multi-source precipitation merging over China. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively distinguishes the occurrence of precipitation events and reduces the error in precipitation estimation. This method is robust and may be successfully applied to other areas even with scarce data.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2697–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems for forecasting Mediterranean intense rainfall events and floods are investigated. The results reveal that up to 75 or 90 min of forecast the performance of the nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation is higher than the numerical weather model. For lead times up to 3 h the skills are equivalent in general. Using these nowcasting systems for flash flood forecasting is also promising.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Hanieh Seyedhashemi, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jacob S. Diamond, Dominique Thiéry, Céline Monteil, Frédéric Hendrickx, Anthony Maire, and Florentina Moatar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2583–2603, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained due to a paucity of long-term data. Using a thermal model, this study provides a large-scale understanding of the evolution of stream temperature over a long period (1963–2019). This research highlights that air temperature and streamflow can exert joint influence on stream temperature trends, and riparian shading in small mountainous streams may mitigate warming in stream temperatures.
Shakirudeen Lawal, Stephen Sitch, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Hao-Wei Wey, Pierre Friedlingstein, Hanqin Tian, and Bruce Hewitson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2045–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2045-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate the impacts of drought on vegetation, which few studies have done due to various limitations, we used the leaf area index as proxy and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to simulate drought impacts because the models use observationally derived climate. We found that the semi-desert biome responds strongly to drought in the summer season, while the tropical forest biome shows a weak response. This study could help target areas to improve drought monitoring and simulation.
Yubo Liu, Monica Garcia, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings indicate that the reduction in contribution to the Iberian Peninsula (IP) summer precipitation is mainly concentrated in the IP and its neighboring grids. Compared with 1980–1997, both local recycling and external moisture were reduced during 1998–2019. The reduction in local recycling in the IP closely links to the disappearance of the wet years and the decreasing contribution in the dry years.
Nejc Bezak, Pasquale Borrelli, and Panos Panagos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1907–1924, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1907-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall erosivity is one of the main factors in soil erosion. A satellite-based global map of rainfall erosivity was constructed using data with a 30 min time interval. It was shown that the satellite-based precipitation products are an interesting option for estimating rainfall erosivity, especially in regions with limited ground data. However, ground-based high-frequency precipitation measurements are (still) essential for accurate estimates of rainfall erosivity.
Xueli Yang, Zhi-Hua Wang, and Chenghao Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigated potentially catastrophic transitions in hydrological processes by identifying the early-warning signals which manifest as a
critical slowing downin complex dynamic systems. We then analyzed the precipitation network of cities in the contiguous United States and found that key network parameters, such as the nodal density and the clustering coefficient, exhibit similar dynamic behaviour, which can serve as novel early-warning signals for the hydrological system.
Zhuoyi Tu, Yuting Yang, and Michael L. Roderick
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1745–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1745-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we test a maximum evaporation theory that acknowledges the interdependence between radiation, surface temperature, and evaporation over saturated land. We show that the maximum evaporation approach recovers observed evaporation and surface temperature under non-water-limited conditions across a broad range of bio-climates. The implication is that the maximum evaporation concept can be used to predict potential evaporation that has long been a major difficulty for the hydrological community.
Paola Mazzoglio, Ilaria Butera, Massimiliano Alvioli, and Pierluigi Claps
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1659–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We have analyzed the spatial dependence of rainfall extremes upon elevation and morphology in Italy. Regression analyses show that previous rainfall–elevation relations at national scale can be substantially improved with new data, both using topography attributes and constraining the analysis within areas stemming from geomorphological zonation. Short-duration mean rainfall depths can then be estimated, all over Italy, using different parameters in each area of the geomorphological subdivision.
Mina Faghih, François Brissette, and Parham Sabeti
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1545–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1545-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1545-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The diurnal cycles of precipitation and temperature generated by climate models are biased. This work investigates whether or not impact modellers should correct the diurnal cycle biases prior to conducting hydrological impact studies at the sub-daily scale. The results show that more accurate streamflows are obtained when the diurnal cycles biases are corrected. This is noticeable for smaller catchments, which have a quicker reaction time to changes in precipitation and temperature.
Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewart, Kenneth Joseph, and Hugo G. Hidalgo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1425–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-summer drought (MSD) is common in Mesoamerica. It is a short (weeks-long) period of reduced rainfall near the middle of the rainy season. When it occurs, how long it lasts, and how dry it is all have important implications for smallholder farmers. Studies of changes in MSD characteristics rely on defining characteristics of an MSD. Different definitions affect whether an area would be considered to experience an MSD as well as the changes that have happened in the last 40 years.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Andrew W. Western, Wenyan Wu, Yawen Shao, and Kirsti Hakala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 941–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-941-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of evaporative water loss in the future are highly valuable for water resource management. These forecasts are often produced using the outputs of climate models. We developed an innovative method to correct errors in these forecasts, particularly the errors caused by deficiencies of climate models in modeling the changing climate. We apply this method to seasonal forecasts of evaporative water loss across Australia and achieve significant improvements in the forecast quality.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 711–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-711-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of initial soil moisture anomalies can persist for up to 3–4 months and is greater on temperature than on precipitation over West Africa. The strongest homogeneous impact on temperature is located over the Central Sahel, with a peak change of −1.5 and 0.5 °C in the wet and dry experiments, respectively. The strongest impact on precipitation in the wet and dry experiments is found over the West and Central Sahel, with a peak change of about 40 % and −8 %, respectively.
Brahima Koné, Arona Diedhiou, Adama Diawara, Sandrine Anquetin, N'datchoh Evelyne Touré, Adama Bamba, and Arsene Toka Kobea
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 731–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-731-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of initial soil moisture is more significant on temperature extremes than on precipitation extremes. A stronger impact is found on maximum temperature than on minimum temperature. The impact on extreme precipitation indices is homogeneous, especially over the Central Sahel, and dry (wet) experiments tend to decrease (increase) the number of precipitation extreme events but not their intensity.
Josias Láng-Ritter, Marc Berenguer, Francesco Dottori, Milan Kalas, and Daniel Sempere-Torres
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
During flood events, emergency managers such as civil protection authorities rely on flood forecasts to make informed decisions. In the current practice, they monitor several separate forecasts, each one of them covering a different type of flooding. This can be time-consuming and confusing, ultimately compromising the effectiveness of the emergency response. This work illustrates how the automatic combination of flood type-specific impact forecasts can improve decision support systems.
Junjiang Liu, Xing Yuan, Junhan Zeng, Yang Jiao, Yong Li, Lihua Zhong, and Ling Yao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 265–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts with the CSSPv2 land surface model and ECMWF meteorological forecasts reduce both the probabilistic and deterministic forecast error compared with the ensemble streamflow prediction approach during the first week. The deterministic forecast error can be further reduced in the first 72 h when combined with the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning method. The forecast skill for LSTM using only historical observations drops sharply after the first 24 h.
Michael Peichl, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Hansjürgens, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6523–6545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6523-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using a statistical model that can also take complex systems into account, the most important factors affecting wheat yield in Germany are determined. Different spatial damage potentials are taken into account. In many parts of Germany, yield losses are caused by too much soil water in spring. Negative heat effects as well as damaging soil drought are identified especially for north-eastern Germany. The model is able to explain years with exceptionally high yields (2014) and losses (2003, 2018).
Sara Cloux, Daniel Garaboa-Paz, Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6465–6477, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6465-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the performance of a widely used Lagrangian method for moisture tracking by comparing it with a highly accurate Eulerian tool, both operating on the same WRF atmospheric model fields. Although the Lagrangian approach is very useful for a qualitative analysis of moisture sources, it has important limitations in quantifying the contribution of individual sources to precipitation. These drawbacks should be considered by other authors in the future so as to not draw erroneous conclusions.
Felix S. Fauer, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6479–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6479-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are modeled in this study for different timescales. A new parameterization of the dependence between extreme values and their timescale enables our model to estimate extremes on very short (1 min) and long (5 d) timescales simultaneously. We compare different approaches of modeling this dependence and find that our new model improves performance for timescales between 2 h and 2 d without affecting model performance on other timescales.
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Reinhard Schiemann, Andrew G. Turner, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6381–6405, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6381-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall poses many challenges because of its multi-scale nature. We evaluate three setups of a 14 km global climate model against observations to see if they improve simulated rainfall. We do this over catchment basins of different sizes to estimate how model performance depends on spatial scale. Using explicit convection improves rainfall diurnal cycle, yet more model tuning is needed to improve mean and intensity biases in simulated summer rainfall.
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5937–5950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open-access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5641–5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
East African water towers (WTs) are under pressure from human influences within and without, but the water yield (WY) is more sensitive to climate changes from within. Land use changes have greater impacts on WY in the surrounding lowlands. The WTs have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions while, at the same time, the potential evapotranspiration is gradually increasing. The WTs were identified as non-resilient, and future WY may experience more extreme variations.
Chuanfa Chen, Baojian Hu, and Yanyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5667–5682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes an easy-to-use downscaling-calibration method based on a spatial random forest with the incorporation of high-resolution variables. The proposed method is general, robust, accurate and easy to use as it shows more accurate results than the classical methods in the study area with heterogeneous terrain morphology and precipitation. It can be easily applied to other regions where precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy are urgently required.
Cited articles
Alexander, G. D. and Young, G. S.: The Relationship between EMEX Mesoscale
Precipitation Feature Properties and Their Environmental Characteristics,
Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 554–564,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0554:TRBEMP>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Angus, P., Rasmussen, S., and Seiter, K.: Short-term prediction of thunderstorm
probability and intensity by screening observational and derived predictors,
in: Reprints AMS 15th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Baltimore, MA,
368–371, 1988. a
Argüeso, D., Hidalgo-Muñoz, J. M., Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.,
Esteban-Parra, M. J., Dudhia, J., and Castro-Díez, Y.: Evaluation of
WRF Parameterizations for Climate Studies over Southern Spain Using a
Multistep Regionalization, J. Climate, 24, 5633–5651,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00073.1, 2011. a, b
Barker, D., Huang, X.-Y., Liu, Z., Auligné, T., Zhang, X., Rugg, S.,
Ajjaji, R., Bourgeois, A., Bray, J., Chen, Y., Demirtas, M., Guo, Y.-R.,
Henderson, T., Huang, W., Lin, H.-C., Michalakes, J., Rizvi, S., and Zhang,
X.: The Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community
Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 831–843,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00167.1, 2012. a, b
Barker, D. M., Huang, W., Guo, Y.-R., Bourgeois, A. J., and Xiao, Q. N.: A
Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System for MM5:
Implementation and Initial Results, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 897–914,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0897:ATVDAS>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a, b
Blanchard, D. O.: Assessing the Vertical Distribution of Convective Available
Potential Energy, Weather Forecast., 13, 870–877,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0870:ATVDOC>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Brooks, H.: Severe thunderstorms and climate change, Atmos. Res., 123,
129–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002, 2013. a
Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W., and Craven, J. P.: The spatial distribution of
severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data,
Atmos. Res., 67–68, 73–94,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00045-0, 2003. a
Calbó, J. and Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.: Cloudiness climatology in the Iberian
Peninsula from three global gridded datasets (ISCCP, CRU TS 2.1, ERA-40),
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96, 105–115,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0039-z, 2009. a
Correoso, J. F., Hernández, E., García-Herrera, R., Barriopedro, D.,
and Paredes, D.: A 3-year study of cloud-to-ground lightning flash
characteristics of Mesoscale convective systems over the Western
Mediterranean Sea, Atmos. Res., 79, 89–107,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.05.002, 2006. a
Craven, J. P., Jewell, R. E., and Brooks, H. E.: Comparison between Observed
Convective Cloud-Base Heights and Lifting Condensation Level for Two
Different Lifted Parcels, Weather Forecast., 17, 885–890,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0885:CBOCCB>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Dai, A.: Recent changes in the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the United
States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 341–344,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1998GL900318, 1999. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi,
S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P.,
Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C.,
Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B.,
Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park,
B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and
Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of
the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
DeRubertis, D.: Recent Trends in Four Common Stability Indices Derived from
U.S. Radiosonde Observations, J. Climate, 19, 309–323,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3626.1, 2006. a
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Scherer, M., and Trapp, R. J.: Robust increases in severe
thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing, P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 16361–16366,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307758110, 2013. a
Doswell, C. A. and Rasmussen, E. N.: The Effect of Neglecting the Virtual
Temperature Correction on CAPE Calculations, Weather Forecast., 9,
625–629, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0625:TEONTV>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a
Doswell, C. A., Ramis, C., Romero, R., and Alonso, S.: A Diagnostic Study of
Three Heavy Precipitation Episodes in the Western Mediterranean Region,
Weather Forecast., 13, 102–124,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0102:ADSOTH>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Efron, B. and Gong, G.: A Leisurely Look at the Bootstrap, the Jackknife, and
Cross-Validation, Am. Stat., 37, 36–48,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.1983.10483087, 1983. a
Enno, S.-E., Sugier, J., Alber, R., and Seltzer, M.: Lightning flash density in
Europe based on 10 years of ATDnet data, Atmos. Res., 235,
104769, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104769, 2020. a, b, c
Eshel, G. and Farrell, B. F.: Thermodynamics of Eastern Mediterranean Rainfall
Variability, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 87–92,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<0087:TOEMRV>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Esteban-Parra, M. J., Rodrigo, F. S., and Castro-Diez, Y.: Spatial and temporal
patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period 1880–1992, International
J. Climatol., 18, 1557–1574,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19981130)18:14<1557::AID-JOC328>3.0.CO;2-J,
1998. a, b
Fernández, J., Montávez, J. P., Sáenz, J., González-Rouco,
J. F., and Zorita, E.: Sensitivity of the MM5 mesoscale model to physical
parameterizations for regional climate studies: Annual cycle, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D04101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006649, 2007. a
Galway, J. G.: The lifted index as a predictor of latent instability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 37, 528–529, 1956. a
Gascón, E., Merino, A., Sánchez, J., Fernández-González, S.,
García-Ortega, E., López, L., and Hermida, L.: Spatial distribution
of thermodynamic conditions of severe storms in southwestern Europe,
Atmos. Res., 164–165, 194–209,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.05.012, 2015. a
Gayà, M., Homar, V., Romero, R., and Ramis, C.: Tornadoes and waterspouts
in the Balearic Islands: phenomena and environment characterization,
Atmos. Res., 56, 253–267,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00076-4, 2001. a
George, J. J.: Weather forecasting for aeronautics, Academic Press, San Diego,
p. 411, 1960. a
González-Rojí, S. J., Sáenz, J., Ibarra-Berastegi, G., and
Díaz de Argandoña, J.: Moisture balance over the Iberian Peninsula
according to a regional climate model: The impact of 3DVAR data
assimilation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 708–729,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027511, 2018. a, b, c, d, e
González-Rojí, S. J., Wilby, R. L., Sáenz, J., and
Ibarra-Berastegi, G.: Harmonized evaluation of daily precipitation downscaled
using SDSM and WRF+WRFDA models over the Iberian Peninsula, Clim. Dynam.,
53, 1413–1433, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04673-9, 2019. a
González-Rojí, S. J., Sáenz, J., Díaz de Argandoña, J.,
and Ibarra-Berastegi, G.: Moisture Recycling over the Iberian Peninsula:
The Impact of 3DVAR Data Assimilation, Atmosphere, 11, 19,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010019, 2020a. a
González-Rojí, S. J., Carreno-Madinabeitia, S., Sáenz, J., and Ibarra-Berastegi, G.: Pseudo-Soundings for Publication “Changes in the simulation of instability indices over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation” [data set], Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3611343, 2020b. a
Graf, M. A., Sprenger, M., and Moore, R. W.: Central European tornado
environments as viewed from a potential vorticity and Lagrangian
perspective, Atmos. Res., 101, 31–45,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01.007, 2011. a
Haklander, A. J. and Van Delden, A.: Thunderstorm predictors and their
forecast skill for the Netherlands, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 273–299, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00056-5, 2003. a
Hong, S.-Y., Dudhia, J., and Chen, S.-H.: A Revised Approach to Ice
Microphysical Processes for the Bulk Parameterization of Clouds and
Precipitation, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 103–120,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0103:ARATIM>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Huntrieser, H., Schiesser, H. H., Schmid, W., and Waldvogel, A.: Comparison of
Traditional and Newly Developed Thunderstorm Indices for Switzerland,
Weather Forecast., 12, 108–125,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0108:COTAND>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A.,
and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases:
Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008. a
Iturrioz, I., Hernández, E., Ribera, P., and Queralt, S.: Instability and its relation to precipitation over the Eastern Iberian Peninsula, Adv. Geosci., 10, 45–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-10-45-2007, 2007. a, b, c
Jerez, S., Montavez, J. P., Gomez-Navarro, J. J., Jimenez, P. A.,
Jimenez-Guerrero, P., Lorente, R., and Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F.: The role of the
land-surface model for climate change projections over the Iberian
Peninsula, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D01109,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016576, 2012. a
Johns, R. H. and Doswell, C. A.: Severe Local Storms Forecasting, Weather
Forecast., 7, 588–612,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0588:SLSF>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Jones, R. G., Murphy, J. M., and Noguer, M.: Simulation of climate change over
europe using a nested regional-climate model. I: Assessment of control
climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1413–1449,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712152610, 1995. a
Kunz, M.: The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated
and severe thunderstorms, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 7,
327–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-327-2007, 2007. a, b
Lee, J.: Tornado Proximity Soundings from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data,
PhD thesis, University of Oklahoma, Grand Forks, North Dakota, 2002. a
Letkewicz, C. E. and Parker, M. D.: Forecasting the Maintenance of Mesoscale
Convective Systems Crossing the Appalachian Mountains, Weather
Forecast., 25, 1179–1195, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222379.1, 2010. a
López, L., Marcos, J. L., Sánchez, J. L., Castro, A., and Fraile, R.:
CAPE values and hailstorms on northwestern Spain, Atmos. Res.,
56, 147–160, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00095-8, 2001. a, b, c
Lucas, C., Zipser, E. J., and LeMone, M. A.: Convective Available Potential
Energy in the Environment of Oceanic and Continental Clouds: Correction and
Comments, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 3829–3830,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<3829:CAPEIT>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a
Marsh, P. T., Brooks, H. E., and Karoly, D. J.: Preliminary investigation into
the severe thunderstorm environment of Europe simulated by the Community
Climate System Model 3, Atmos. Res., 93, 607–618,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.014, 2009. a, b
McNulty, R. P.: Severe and Convective Weather: A Central Region Forecasting
Challenge, Weather Forecast., 10, 187–202,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0187:SACWAC>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a, b
Mohr, S., Kunz, M., and Geyer, B.: Hail potential in Europe based on a
regional climate model hindcast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42,
10904–10912, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067118, 2015. a, b
Molina, D. S., Fernández-González, S., González, J. C. S., and
Oliver, A.: Analysis of sounding derived parameters and application to severe
weather events in the Canary Islands, Atmos. Res., 237, 104865,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104865, 2020. a
Moncrieff, M. W.: A theory of organized steady convection and its transport
properties, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 107,
29–50, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710745103, 1981. a, b
Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.: An Improved Mellor–Yamada Level-3 Model: Its
Numerical Stability and Application to a Regional Prediction of Advection
Fog, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 119, 397–407,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-005-9030-8, 2006. a
Owens, R. G. and Hewson, T.: ECMWF Forecast User Guide, ECMWF,
https://doi.org/10.21957/m1cs7h, 2018. a
Parrish, D. F. and Derber, J. C.: The National Meteorological Center's
Spectral Statistical-Interpolation Analysis System, Mon. Weather
Rev., 120, 1747–1763,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<1747:TNMCSS>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Piper, D. and Kunz, M.: Spatiotemporal variability of lightning activity in Europe and the relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation teleconnection pattern, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1319–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, 2017. a
Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Rýva, D., and Kolář, M.:
Proximity Soundings of Severe and Nonsevere Thunderstorms in Central
Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 4805–4821,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0104.1, 2015. a
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R
Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria,
available at: https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 5 May 2021), 2020. a
Rädler, A. T., Groenemeijer, P., Faust, E., and Sausen, R.: Detecting
Severe Weather Trends Using an Additive Regressive Convective Hazard Model
(AR-CHaMo), J. Appl. Meteor. Clim., 57, 569–587,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0132.1, 2018. a
Rädler, A. T., Groenemeijer, P. H., Faust, E., Sausen, R., and Púčik, T.: Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to
increase in the 21st century due to rising instability, Npj Climate and
Atmospheric Science, 2, 30, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0083-7, 2019. a
Reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. S., and
Schlax, M. G.: Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface
Temperature, J. Climate, 20, 5473–5496,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1, 2007. a
Riemann-Campe, K., Fraedrich, K., and Lunkeit, F.: Global climatology of
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition
(CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis, Atmos. Res., 93, 534–545,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.037, 2009. a, b
Rodríguez-Puebla, C., Encinas, A. H., Nieto, S., and Garmendia, J.:
Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the
Iberian Peninsula, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 299–316,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980315)18:3<299::AID-JOC247>3.0.CO;2-L, 1998. a, b
Romero, R., Ramis, C., and Guijarro, J.: Daily rainfall patterns in the
Spanish Mediterranean area: an objective classification, Int.
J. Climatol., 19, 95–112,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199901)19:1<95::AID-JOC344>3.0.CO;2-S, 1999. a, b
Romero, R., Gayà, M., and Doswell, C. A.: European climatology of severe
convective storm environmental parameters: A test for significant tornado
events, Atmos. Res., 83, 389–404,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.06.011, 2007. a, b, c, d
Rummukainen, M.: State-of-the-art with regional climate models, Wiley
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 82–96, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.8,
2010. a
Sáenz, J., González-Rojí, S. J., Carreno-Madinabeitia, S., and
Ibarra-Berastegi, G.: Analysis of atmospheric thermodynamics using the R
package aiRthermo, Comput. Geosci., 122, 113–119,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2018.10.007, 2019. a, b
Showalter, A. K.: A Stability Index for Thunderstorm Forecasting, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 34, 250–252, 1953. a
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., and Bronaugh, D.:
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model
evaluation in the present climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1716–1733, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203, 2013. a
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda,
M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A Description of the
Advanced Research WRF Version 3, NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR,
https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH, 2008. a
Taszarek, M., Brooks, H. E., and Czernecki, B.: Sounding-Derived Parameters
Associated with Convective Hazards in Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 145,
1511–1528, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0384.1, 2017. a
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single
diagram, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 7183–7192, 2001. a
Tewari, M., Chen, F., Wang, W., Dudhia, J., LeMone, M., Mitchell, K., Ek, M.,
Gayno, G., Wegiel, J., and Cuenca, R.: Implementation and verification of the
unified NOAH land surface model in the WRF model, in: 20th conference on
weather analysis and forecasting/16th conference on numerical weather
prediction, vol. 1115, available at: https://ams.confex.com/ams/84Annual/webprogram/Paper69061.html (last access: 15 June 2021), 2004. a
Tiedtke, M.: Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in
Large-Scale Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1779–1800,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1779:ACMFSF>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Tullot, I. F.: Climatología de España y Portugal, vol. 76,
Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain, 2000. a
Ulazia, A., Sáenz, J., Ibarra-Berastegui, G., González-Rojí,
S. J., and Carreno-Madinabeitia, S.: Using 3DVAR data assimilation to
measure offshore wind energy potential at different turbine heights in the
West Mediterranean, Appl. Energ., 208, 1232–1245,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.030, 2017. a, b
Ulazia, A., Ibarra-Berastegi, G., Sáenz, J., Carreno-Madinabeitia, S., and
González-Rojí, S. J.: Seasonal Correction of Offshore Wind Energy
Potential due to Air Density: Case of the Iberian Peninsula, Sustainability,
11, 3648, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133648, 2019. a
van Delden, A.: The synoptic setting of thunderstorms in western Europe,
Atmos. Res., 56, 89–110,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00092-2, 2001. a, b, c
Virts, K. S., Wallace, J. M., Hutchins, M. L., and Holzworth, R. H.:
Highlights of a New Ground-Based, Hourly Global Lightning Climatology,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1381–1391,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00082.1, 2013. a, b
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 100,
Academic Press, 2011. a
Xu, G., Xi, B., Zhang, W., Cui, C., Dong, X., Liu, Y., and Yan, G.: Comparison
of atmospheric profiles between microwave radiometer retrievals and
radiosonde soundings, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120,
10313–10323, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023438, 2015. a
Ye, B., Del Genio, A. D., and Lo, K. K.-W.: CAPE Variations in the Current
Climate and in a Climate Change, J. Climate, 11, 1997–2015,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-11.8.1997, 1998. a
Zhang, C., Wang, Y., and Hamilton, K.: Improved Representation of Boundary
Layer Clouds over the Southeast Pacific in ARW-WRF Using a Modified
Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme, Mon. Weather Rev., 139,
3489–3513, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05091.1, 2011.
a
Zheng, D., Van Der Velde, R., Su, Z., Wen, J., and Wang, X.: Assessment of
Noah land surface model with various runoff parameterizations over a
Tibetan river, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos, 122,
1488–1504, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025572, 2017. a
Short summary
The simulation of precipitation extreme events is a known problem in modelling. That is why the atmospheric conditions favourable for its development as simulated by two WRF experiments are evaluated in this paper. The experiment including 3DVAR data assimilation outperforms the one without in simulating the TT index, CAPE, and CIN over the Iberian Peninsula. The ingredients for convective precipitation in winter are found at the Atlantic coast, but in summer they are at the Mediterranean coast.
The simulation of precipitation extreme events is a known problem in modelling. That is why the...
