Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jun 2021
Research article |
| 18 Jun 2021
| 18 Jun 2021
Changes in the simulation of atmospheric instability over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation
Santos J. González-Rojí
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia
Department of Mathematics, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
TECNALIA, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Parque Tecnológico de Álava, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
Jon Sáenz
Department of Physics, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Leioa, Spain
Plentziako Itsas Estazioa (BEGIK), University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Plentzia, Spain
Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi
Department of Energy Engineering, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Bilbao, Spain
Plentziako Itsas Estazioa (BEGIK), University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Plentzia, Spain
Related authors
Woon Mi Kim and Santos Jose González-Rojí
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how and when droughts begin and end is crucial for improving predictions and developing effective mitigation strategies. This study investigates the onset and termination of soil moisture droughts in Europe, exploring their duration, seasons of occurrence, and related atmospheric circulation factors. The findings reveal noticeable differences between drought onset and termination, as well as variations in the temporal characteristics across datasets.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, Isla R. Simpson, and Daniel Kennedy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates temporal characteristics and typical circulation conditions associated with onsets and terminations of soil moisture droughts in Europe. More understanding of drought onsets and terminations can aid in improving early predictions for devastating intense droughts.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 19, 2511–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainty in model–proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Woon Mi Kim and Santos Jose González-Rojí
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-503, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how and when droughts begin and end is crucial for improving predictions and developing effective mitigation strategies. This study investigates the onset and termination of soil moisture droughts in Europe, exploring their duration, seasons of occurrence, and related atmospheric circulation factors. The findings reveal noticeable differences between drought onset and termination, as well as variations in the temporal characteristics across datasets.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, Isla R. Simpson, and Daniel Kennedy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-252, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates temporal characteristics and typical circulation conditions associated with onsets and terminations of soil moisture droughts in Europe. More understanding of drought onsets and terminations can aid in improving early predictions for devastating intense droughts.
Woon Mi Kim, Santos J. González-Rojí, and Christoph C. Raible
Clim. Past, 19, 2511–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we investigate circulation patterns associated with Mediterranean droughts during the last millennium using global climate simulations. Different circulation patterns driven by internal interactions in the climate system contribute to the occurrence of droughts in the Mediterranean. The detected patterns are different between the models, and this difference can be a potential source of uncertainty in model–proxy comparison and future projections of Mediterranean droughts.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Martina Messmer, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Different configurations of physics parameterizations of a regional climate model are tested over southern Peru at fine resolution. The most challenging regions compared to observational data are the slopes of the Andes. Model configurations for Europe and East Africa are not perfectly suitable for southern Peru. The experiment with the Stony Brook University microphysics scheme and the Grell–Freitas cumulus parameterization provides the most accurate results over Madre de Dios.
Martina Messmer, Santos J. González-Rojí, Christoph C. Raible, and Thomas F. Stocker
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2691–2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2691-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Sensitivity experiments with the WRF model are run to find an optimal parameterization setup for precipitation around Mount Kenya at a scale that resolves convection (1 km). Precipitation is compared against many weather stations and gridded observational data sets. Both the temporal correlation of precipitation sums and pattern correlations show that fewer nests lead to a more constrained simulation with higher correlation. The Grell–Freitas cumulus scheme obtains the most accurate results.
Jon Sáenz, Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia, Ganix Esnaola, Santos J. González-Rojí, Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi, and Alain Ulazia
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3221–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3221-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3221-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new diagram for the verification of vector variables (wind, current, etc.) generated by multiple models against a set of observations is presented in this package. It has been designed as a generalization of the Taylor diagram for two-dimensional quantities. It is based on the analysis of the two-dimensional structure of the mean squared error matrix between model and observations, and it allows for an easy assessment of both bias and directional errors as well.
I. Herrero, A. Ezcurra, J. Areitio, J. Diaz-Argandoña, G. Ibarra-Berastegi, and J. Saenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6467-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-6467-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
G. Esnaola, J. Sáenz, E. Zorita, A. Fontán, V. Valencia, and P. Lazure
Ocean Sci., 9, 655–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-655-2013, 2013
A. Fontán, G. Esnaola, J. Sáenz, and M. González
Ocean Sci., 9, 399–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-399-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-399-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
The role of land–atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction across the contiguous United States
Barriers to urban hydrometeorological simulation: a review
Global catalog of soil moisture droughts over the past four decades
Probabilistic precipitation downscaling for ungauged mountain sites: a pilot study for the Hindu Kush Himalaya
Implementation of global soil databases in the Noah-MP model and the effects on simulated mean and extreme soil hydrothermal changes
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK flood risk months ahead using a large-sample machine learning model trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Towards a robust hydrologic data assimilation system for hurricane-induced river flow forecasting
Enhanced evaluation of hourly and daily extreme precipitation in Norway from convection-permitting models at regional and local scales
Deep-learning-based sub-seasonal precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasting over the source region of the Yangtze River
High-resolution land surface modelling over Africa: the role of uncertain soil properties in combination with forcing temporal resolution
Investigating the global and regional response of drought to idealized deforestation using multiple global climate models
Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom
Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?
Leveraging a radar-based disdrometer network to develop a probabilistic precipitation phase model in eastern Canada
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over the Central Mediterranean
Saudi Rainfall (SaRa): Hourly 0.1° Gridded Rainfall (1979–Present) for Saudi Arabia via Machine Learning Fusion of Satellite and Model Data
Do land models miss key soil hydrological processes controlling soil moisture memory?
Observation-driven model for calculating water-harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Review of gridded climate products and their use in hydrological analyses reveals overlaps, gaps, and the need for a more objective approach to selecting model forcing datasets
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell life cycles with a copula-based approach
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Informativeness of teleconnections in local and regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Enhanced hydrological modelling with the WRF-Hydro lake/reservoir module at Convection-Permitting scale: a case study of the Tana River basin in East Africa
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Storyline Analytical Framework for Understanding Future Severe Low-Water Episodes and Their Consequences
Assessing multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations on various impact models under climate change
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and VIC models
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3435–3445, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3435-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” is valuable as this helps anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study shows that when strong land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the surface air temperature prediction skill at this lead time increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L–A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, enhancing predictions of abnormally warm events.
Xuan Chen, Job Augustijn van der Werf, Arjan Droste, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Remko Uijlenhoet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3447–3480, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The review highlights the need to integrate urban land surface and hydrological models to better predict and manage compound climate events in cities. We find that inadequate representation of water surfaces, hydraulic systems and detailed building representations are key areas for improvement in future models. Coupled models show promise but face challenges at regional and neighbourhood scales. Interdisciplinary communication is crucial to enhance urban hydrometeorological simulations.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, Yannis Markonis, and Miroslav Trnka
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3341–3358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3341-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3341-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, with clusters of 775 and 630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Marc Girona-Mata, Andrew Orr, Martin Widmann, Daniel Bannister, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Scott Hosking, Jesse Norris, David Ocio, Tony Phillips, Jakob Steiner, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3073–3100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3073-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3073-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel method for improving daily precipitation maps in mountain regions and pilot it across three basins in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). The approach leverages climate model and weather station data, along with statistical or machine learning techniques. Our results show that this approach outperforms traditional methods, especially in remote ungauged areas, suggesting that it could be used to improve precipitation maps across much of the HKH, as well as other mountain regions.
Kazeem Abiodun Ishola, Gerald Mills, Ankur Prabhat Sati, Benjamin Obe, Matthias Demuzere, Deepak Upreti, Gourav Misra, Paul Lewis, Daire Walsh, Tim McCarthy, and Rowan Fealy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2551–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global soil information introduces uncertainty into models that simulate soil hydrothermal changes. Using the Noah with Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) model with two different global soil datasets, we find under-represented soil properties in wet loam, causing a dry bias in soil moisture. This bias is more pronounced and drought categories are more severe in the SoilGrids dataset. We conclude that models should incorporate detailed, region-specific soil information to minimize model uncertainties.
Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, and Andrew W. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2393–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Here, we train and test a machine learning model to predict the monthly maximum daily streamflow up to 4 months ahead. We train the model on precipitation and temperature forecasts to produce probabilistic hindcasts for 579 stations across the UK for the period 2004–2016. We show skilful results up to 4 months ahead in many locations, although, in general, the skill declines with increasing lead time.
Peyman Abbaszadeh, Fatemeh Gholizadeh, Keyhan Gavahi, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2407–2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Hybrid Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation framework for Environmental Systems (HEAVEN) enhances flood predictions by refining hydrologic models through improved data integration and uncertainty management. Tested in three southeastern US watersheds during hurricanes, HEAVEN assimilates real-time United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, boosting forecast accuracy.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Göktürk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2133–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We compared hourly and daily extreme precipitation across Norway from HARMONIE Climate models at convection-permitting 3 km (HCLIM3) and 12 km (HCLIM12) resolutions. HCLIM3 more accurately captures the extremes in most regions and seasons (except in summer). Its advantages are more pronounced for hourly extremes than for daily extremes. The results highlight the value of convection-permitting models in improving extreme-precipitation predictions and in helping the local society brace for extreme weather.
Ningpeng Dong, Haoran Hao, Mingxiang Yang, Jianhui Wei, Shiqin Xu, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2023–2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating extreme weather events, yet current long-term forecast products are often embedded with uncertainties. We develop a deep-learning-based modelling framework to improve 30 d rainfall and streamflow forecasts by combining advanced neural networks and physical models. With the flow forecast error reduced by up to 33 %, the framework has the potential to enhance water management and disaster prevention.
Bamidele Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1659–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how soil and weather data affect land model simulations over Africa. By combining soil data processed in different ways with weather data of varying time intervals, we found that weather inputs had a greater impact on water processes than soil data type. However, the way soil data were processed became crucial when paired with high-frequency weather inputs, showing that detailed weather data can improve local and regional predictions of how water moves and interacts with the land.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation has a significant impact on climate, yet its effects on drought remain less understood. This study investigates how deforestation affects drought across various climate zones and timescales. Findings indicate that deforestation leads to drier conditions in tropical regions and wetter conditions in arid areas, with minimal effects in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term drought, offering valuable insights into vegetation–climate interactions.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1295–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides a detailed characterisation of flash drought in the UK for 1969–2021. The spatio-temporal distribution and trends of flash droughts are highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, while the atmospheric evaporative demand plays a secondary role. We also found that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main circulation pattern controlling flash drought development.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1201–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, Julie M. Thériault, Olivier Chalifour, Fanny Payette, Alexandre Vidal, and Daniel F. Nadeau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1135–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation data from an automated observational network in eastern Canada showed a temperature interval where rain and snow could coexist. Random forest models were developed to classify the precipitation phase using meteorological data to evaluate operational applications. The models demonstrated significantly improved phase classification and reduced error compared to benchmark operational models. However, accurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging.
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Bruno Brunone, Silvia Meniconi, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 925–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in the areas of the Central Mediterranean where longer memory timescales are found. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance, and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
Xuetong Wang, Raied S. Alharbi, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Amy Green, Matthew F. McCabe, Yoshihide Wada, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Muhammad A. Abid, and Hylke Beck
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-254, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper introduces Saudi Rainfall (SaRa), a high-resolution, near real-time rainfall product for the Arabian Peninsula. Using machine learning, SaRa combines multiple satellite and (re)analysis datasets with static predictors, outperforming existing products in the region. With the fast development and continuing growth in water demand over this region, SaRa could help to address water challenges and support resource management.
Mohammad A. Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 547–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture memory (SMM) shows how long soil stays moist after rain, impacting climate and ecosystems. Current models often overestimate SMM, causing inaccuracies in evaporation predictions. We enhanced a land model, Noah-MP, to include better water flow and ponding processes, and we tested it against satellite and field data. This improved model reduced overestimations and enhanced short-term predictions, helping create more accurate climate and weather forecasts.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo del Río
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for the social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligate us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting (FH) emerges as a complementary resource in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate FH potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where FH could be a viable water source.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 63 gridded ground (G), satellite (S), and reanalysis (R) climate datasets. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; however, R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, although better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Andrea Magnini, Valentina Pavan, and Attilio Castellarin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes a new methodology to identify regional structures in the dependence of extreme rainfall on global climate indexes. The study area is north-central Italy, but the methods are highly adaptable to other regions. We observe that the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index has a strong influence, whose geographical pattern is in line with other studies. We show also that the use of the Index may improve the estimation of the extreme rainfall depth with a given probability.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Louis-Philippe Caron, Kristelle Audet, Laurent Da Silva, Daniel Tarte, Rachel Parent, Élise Comeau, and Dominic Matte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2021 drought in Quebec showcased the province’s potential vulnerability. This study uses a storyline approach to explore impacts of future extreme droughts under +2 °C and +3 °C warming scenarios. By combining regional climate and hydrological simulations, it highlights the potential for severe water deficits. Collaboration with water management experts helped project the impacts of those future extreme droughts and their consequences for ecosystems and human activities.
Denis Allard, Mathieu Vrac, Bastien François, and Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-102, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric variables from climate models often present biases relative to the past. In order to use these models to assess the impact of climate change on processes of interest, it is necessary to correct these biases. We tested several Multivariate Bias Correction Methods (MBCMs) for 5 physical variables that are input variables for 4 process models. We provide recommendations regarding the use of MBCMs when multivariate and time dependent processes are involved.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Cited articles
Alexander, G. D. and Young, G. S.: The Relationship between EMEX Mesoscale
Precipitation Feature Properties and Their Environmental Characteristics,
Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 554–564,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0554:TRBEMP>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Angus, P., Rasmussen, S., and Seiter, K.: Short-term prediction of thunderstorm
probability and intensity by screening observational and derived predictors,
in: Reprints AMS 15th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Baltimore, MA,
368–371, 1988. a
Argüeso, D., Hidalgo-Muñoz, J. M., Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.,
Esteban-Parra, M. J., Dudhia, J., and Castro-Díez, Y.: Evaluation of
WRF Parameterizations for Climate Studies over Southern Spain Using a
Multistep Regionalization, J. Climate, 24, 5633–5651,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00073.1, 2011. a, b
Barker, D., Huang, X.-Y., Liu, Z., Auligné, T., Zhang, X., Rugg, S.,
Ajjaji, R., Bourgeois, A., Bray, J., Chen, Y., Demirtas, M., Guo, Y.-R.,
Henderson, T., Huang, W., Lin, H.-C., Michalakes, J., Rizvi, S., and Zhang,
X.: The Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community
Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 831–843,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00167.1, 2012. a, b
Barker, D. M., Huang, W., Guo, Y.-R., Bourgeois, A. J., and Xiao, Q. N.: A
Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System for MM5:
Implementation and Initial Results, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 897–914,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0897:ATVDAS>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a, b
Blanchard, D. O.: Assessing the Vertical Distribution of Convective Available
Potential Energy, Weather Forecast., 13, 870–877,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0870:ATVDOC>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Brooks, H.: Severe thunderstorms and climate change, Atmos. Res., 123,
129–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002, 2013. a
Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W., and Craven, J. P.: The spatial distribution of
severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data,
Atmos. Res., 67–68, 73–94,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00045-0, 2003. a
Calbó, J. and Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.: Cloudiness climatology in the Iberian
Peninsula from three global gridded datasets (ISCCP, CRU TS 2.1, ERA-40),
Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96, 105–115,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0039-z, 2009. a
Correoso, J. F., Hernández, E., García-Herrera, R., Barriopedro, D.,
and Paredes, D.: A 3-year study of cloud-to-ground lightning flash
characteristics of Mesoscale convective systems over the Western
Mediterranean Sea, Atmos. Res., 79, 89–107,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.05.002, 2006. a
Craven, J. P., Jewell, R. E., and Brooks, H. E.: Comparison between Observed
Convective Cloud-Base Heights and Lifting Condensation Level for Two
Different Lifted Parcels, Weather Forecast., 17, 885–890,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0885:CBOCCB>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Dai, A.: Recent changes in the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the United
States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 341–344,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1998GL900318, 1999. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi,
S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P.,
Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C.,
Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B.,
Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park,
B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and
Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of
the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
DeRubertis, D.: Recent Trends in Four Common Stability Indices Derived from
U.S. Radiosonde Observations, J. Climate, 19, 309–323,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3626.1, 2006. a
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Scherer, M., and Trapp, R. J.: Robust increases in severe
thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing, P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 16361–16366,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307758110, 2013. a
Doswell, C. A. and Rasmussen, E. N.: The Effect of Neglecting the Virtual
Temperature Correction on CAPE Calculations, Weather Forecast., 9,
625–629, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0625:TEONTV>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a
Doswell, C. A., Ramis, C., Romero, R., and Alonso, S.: A Diagnostic Study of
Three Heavy Precipitation Episodes in the Western Mediterranean Region,
Weather Forecast., 13, 102–124,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0102:ADSOTH>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Efron, B. and Gong, G.: A Leisurely Look at the Bootstrap, the Jackknife, and
Cross-Validation, Am. Stat., 37, 36–48,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.1983.10483087, 1983. a
Enno, S.-E., Sugier, J., Alber, R., and Seltzer, M.: Lightning flash density in
Europe based on 10 years of ATDnet data, Atmos. Res., 235,
104769, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104769, 2020. a, b, c
Eshel, G. and Farrell, B. F.: Thermodynamics of Eastern Mediterranean Rainfall
Variability, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 87–92,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<0087:TOEMRV>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Esteban-Parra, M. J., Rodrigo, F. S., and Castro-Diez, Y.: Spatial and temporal
patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period 1880–1992, International
J. Climatol., 18, 1557–1574,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19981130)18:14<1557::AID-JOC328>3.0.CO;2-J,
1998. a, b
Fernández, J., Montávez, J. P., Sáenz, J., González-Rouco,
J. F., and Zorita, E.: Sensitivity of the MM5 mesoscale model to physical
parameterizations for regional climate studies: Annual cycle, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D04101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006649, 2007. a
Galway, J. G.: The lifted index as a predictor of latent instability, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 37, 528–529, 1956. a
Gascón, E., Merino, A., Sánchez, J., Fernández-González, S.,
García-Ortega, E., López, L., and Hermida, L.: Spatial distribution
of thermodynamic conditions of severe storms in southwestern Europe,
Atmos. Res., 164–165, 194–209,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.05.012, 2015. a
Gayà, M., Homar, V., Romero, R., and Ramis, C.: Tornadoes and waterspouts
in the Balearic Islands: phenomena and environment characterization,
Atmos. Res., 56, 253–267,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00076-4, 2001. a
George, J. J.: Weather forecasting for aeronautics, Academic Press, San Diego,
p. 411, 1960. a
González-Rojí, S. J., Sáenz, J., Ibarra-Berastegi, G., and
Díaz de Argandoña, J.: Moisture balance over the Iberian Peninsula
according to a regional climate model: The impact of 3DVAR data
assimilation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 708–729,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027511, 2018. a, b, c, d, e
González-Rojí, S. J., Wilby, R. L., Sáenz, J., and
Ibarra-Berastegi, G.: Harmonized evaluation of daily precipitation downscaled
using SDSM and WRF+WRFDA models over the Iberian Peninsula, Clim. Dynam.,
53, 1413–1433, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04673-9, 2019. a
González-Rojí, S. J., Sáenz, J., Díaz de Argandoña, J.,
and Ibarra-Berastegi, G.: Moisture Recycling over the Iberian Peninsula:
The Impact of 3DVAR Data Assimilation, Atmosphere, 11, 19,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010019, 2020a. a
González-Rojí, S. J., Carreno-Madinabeitia, S., Sáenz, J., and Ibarra-Berastegi, G.: Pseudo-Soundings for Publication “Changes in the simulation of instability indices over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation” [data set], Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3611343, 2020b. a
Graf, M. A., Sprenger, M., and Moore, R. W.: Central European tornado
environments as viewed from a potential vorticity and Lagrangian
perspective, Atmos. Res., 101, 31–45,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01.007, 2011. a
Haklander, A. J. and Van Delden, A.: Thunderstorm predictors and their
forecast skill for the Netherlands, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 273–299, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00056-5, 2003. a
Hong, S.-Y., Dudhia, J., and Chen, S.-H.: A Revised Approach to Ice
Microphysical Processes for the Bulk Parameterization of Clouds and
Precipitation, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 103–120,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<0103:ARATIM>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Huntrieser, H., Schiesser, H. H., Schmid, W., and Waldvogel, A.: Comparison of
Traditional and Newly Developed Thunderstorm Indices for Switzerland,
Weather Forecast., 12, 108–125,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0108:COTAND>2.0.CO;2, 1997. a
Iacono, M. J., Delamere, J. S., Mlawer, E. J., Shephard, M. W., Clough, S. A.,
and Collins, W. D.: Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases:
Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D13103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944, 2008. a
Iturrioz, I., Hernández, E., Ribera, P., and Queralt, S.: Instability and its relation to precipitation over the Eastern Iberian Peninsula, Adv. Geosci., 10, 45–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-10-45-2007, 2007. a, b, c
Jerez, S., Montavez, J. P., Gomez-Navarro, J. J., Jimenez, P. A.,
Jimenez-Guerrero, P., Lorente, R., and Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F.: The role of the
land-surface model for climate change projections over the Iberian
Peninsula, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D01109,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016576, 2012. a
Johns, R. H. and Doswell, C. A.: Severe Local Storms Forecasting, Weather
Forecast., 7, 588–612,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0588:SLSF>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Jones, R. G., Murphy, J. M., and Noguer, M.: Simulation of climate change over
europe using a nested regional-climate model. I: Assessment of control
climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1413–1449,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712152610, 1995. a
Kunz, M.: The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated
and severe thunderstorms, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 7,
327–342, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-327-2007, 2007. a, b
Lee, J.: Tornado Proximity Soundings from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data,
PhD thesis, University of Oklahoma, Grand Forks, North Dakota, 2002. a
Letkewicz, C. E. and Parker, M. D.: Forecasting the Maintenance of Mesoscale
Convective Systems Crossing the Appalachian Mountains, Weather
Forecast., 25, 1179–1195, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222379.1, 2010. a
López, L., Marcos, J. L., Sánchez, J. L., Castro, A., and Fraile, R.:
CAPE values and hailstorms on northwestern Spain, Atmos. Res.,
56, 147–160, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00095-8, 2001. a, b, c
Lucas, C., Zipser, E. J., and LeMone, M. A.: Convective Available Potential
Energy in the Environment of Oceanic and Continental Clouds: Correction and
Comments, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 3829–3830,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<3829:CAPEIT>2.0.CO;2, 1994. a
Marsh, P. T., Brooks, H. E., and Karoly, D. J.: Preliminary investigation into
the severe thunderstorm environment of Europe simulated by the Community
Climate System Model 3, Atmos. Res., 93, 607–618,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.014, 2009. a, b
McNulty, R. P.: Severe and Convective Weather: A Central Region Forecasting
Challenge, Weather Forecast., 10, 187–202,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0187:SACWAC>2.0.CO;2, 1995. a, b
Mohr, S., Kunz, M., and Geyer, B.: Hail potential in Europe based on a
regional climate model hindcast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42,
10904–10912, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067118, 2015. a, b
Molina, D. S., Fernández-González, S., González, J. C. S., and
Oliver, A.: Analysis of sounding derived parameters and application to severe
weather events in the Canary Islands, Atmos. Res., 237, 104865,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104865, 2020. a
Moncrieff, M. W.: A theory of organized steady convection and its transport
properties, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 107,
29–50, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710745103, 1981. a, b
Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.: An Improved Mellor–Yamada Level-3 Model: Its
Numerical Stability and Application to a Regional Prediction of Advection
Fog, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 119, 397–407,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-005-9030-8, 2006. a
Owens, R. G. and Hewson, T.: ECMWF Forecast User Guide, ECMWF,
https://doi.org/10.21957/m1cs7h, 2018. a
Parrish, D. F. and Derber, J. C.: The National Meteorological Center's
Spectral Statistical-Interpolation Analysis System, Mon. Weather
Rev., 120, 1747–1763,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<1747:TNMCSS>2.0.CO;2, 1992. a
Piper, D. and Kunz, M.: Spatiotemporal variability of lightning activity in Europe and the relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation teleconnection pattern, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1319–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, 2017. a
Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Rýva, D., and Kolář, M.:
Proximity Soundings of Severe and Nonsevere Thunderstorms in Central
Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 143, 4805–4821,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0104.1, 2015. a
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R
Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria,
available at: https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 5 May 2021), 2020. a
Rädler, A. T., Groenemeijer, P., Faust, E., and Sausen, R.: Detecting
Severe Weather Trends Using an Additive Regressive Convective Hazard Model
(AR-CHaMo), J. Appl. Meteor. Clim., 57, 569–587,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0132.1, 2018. a
Rädler, A. T., Groenemeijer, P. H., Faust, E., Sausen, R., and Púčik, T.: Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to
increase in the 21st century due to rising instability, Npj Climate and
Atmospheric Science, 2, 30, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0083-7, 2019. a
Reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. S., and
Schlax, M. G.: Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface
Temperature, J. Climate, 20, 5473–5496,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1, 2007. a
Riemann-Campe, K., Fraedrich, K., and Lunkeit, F.: Global climatology of
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition
(CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis, Atmos. Res., 93, 534–545,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.037, 2009. a, b
Rodríguez-Puebla, C., Encinas, A. H., Nieto, S., and Garmendia, J.:
Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the
Iberian Peninsula, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 299–316,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980315)18:3<299::AID-JOC247>3.0.CO;2-L, 1998. a, b
Romero, R., Ramis, C., and Guijarro, J.: Daily rainfall patterns in the
Spanish Mediterranean area: an objective classification, Int.
J. Climatol., 19, 95–112,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199901)19:1<95::AID-JOC344>3.0.CO;2-S, 1999. a, b
Romero, R., Gayà, M., and Doswell, C. A.: European climatology of severe
convective storm environmental parameters: A test for significant tornado
events, Atmos. Res., 83, 389–404,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.06.011, 2007. a, b, c, d
Rummukainen, M.: State-of-the-art with regional climate models, Wiley
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 82–96, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.8,
2010. a
Sáenz, J., González-Rojí, S. J., Carreno-Madinabeitia, S., and
Ibarra-Berastegi, G.: Analysis of atmospheric thermodynamics using the R
package aiRthermo, Comput. Geosci., 122, 113–119,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2018.10.007, 2019. a, b
Showalter, A. K.: A Stability Index for Thunderstorm Forecasting, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 34, 250–252, 1953. a
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., and Bronaugh, D.:
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model
evaluation in the present climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1716–1733, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203, 2013. a
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda,
M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A Description of the
Advanced Research WRF Version 3, NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR,
https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH, 2008. a
Taszarek, M., Brooks, H. E., and Czernecki, B.: Sounding-Derived Parameters
Associated with Convective Hazards in Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 145,
1511–1528, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0384.1, 2017. a
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single
diagram, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 7183–7192, 2001. a
Tewari, M., Chen, F., Wang, W., Dudhia, J., LeMone, M., Mitchell, K., Ek, M.,
Gayno, G., Wegiel, J., and Cuenca, R.: Implementation and verification of the
unified NOAH land surface model in the WRF model, in: 20th conference on
weather analysis and forecasting/16th conference on numerical weather
prediction, vol. 1115, available at: https://ams.confex.com/ams/84Annual/webprogram/Paper69061.html (last access: 15 June 2021), 2004. a
Tiedtke, M.: Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in
Large-Scale Models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1779–1800,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1779:ACMFSF>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a
Tullot, I. F.: Climatología de España y Portugal, vol. 76,
Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain, 2000. a
Ulazia, A., Sáenz, J., Ibarra-Berastegui, G., González-Rojí,
S. J., and Carreno-Madinabeitia, S.: Using 3DVAR data assimilation to
measure offshore wind energy potential at different turbine heights in the
West Mediterranean, Appl. Energ., 208, 1232–1245,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.030, 2017. a, b
Ulazia, A., Ibarra-Berastegi, G., Sáenz, J., Carreno-Madinabeitia, S., and
González-Rojí, S. J.: Seasonal Correction of Offshore Wind Energy
Potential due to Air Density: Case of the Iberian Peninsula, Sustainability,
11, 3648, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133648, 2019. a
van Delden, A.: The synoptic setting of thunderstorms in western Europe,
Atmos. Res., 56, 89–110,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(00)00092-2, 2001. a, b, c
Virts, K. S., Wallace, J. M., Hutchins, M. L., and Holzworth, R. H.:
Highlights of a New Ground-Based, Hourly Global Lightning Climatology,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1381–1391,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00082.1, 2013. a, b
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 100,
Academic Press, 2011. a
Xu, G., Xi, B., Zhang, W., Cui, C., Dong, X., Liu, Y., and Yan, G.: Comparison
of atmospheric profiles between microwave radiometer retrievals and
radiosonde soundings, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120,
10313–10323, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023438, 2015. a
Ye, B., Del Genio, A. D., and Lo, K. K.-W.: CAPE Variations in the Current
Climate and in a Climate Change, J. Climate, 11, 1997–2015,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-11.8.1997, 1998. a
Zhang, C., Wang, Y., and Hamilton, K.: Improved Representation of Boundary
Layer Clouds over the Southeast Pacific in ARW-WRF Using a Modified
Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme, Mon. Weather Rev., 139,
3489–3513, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05091.1, 2011.
a
Zheng, D., Van Der Velde, R., Su, Z., Wen, J., and Wang, X.: Assessment of
Noah land surface model with various runoff parameterizations over a
Tibetan river, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos, 122,
1488–1504, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025572, 2017. a
Short summary
The simulation of precipitation extreme events is a known problem in modelling. That is why the atmospheric conditions favourable for its development as simulated by two WRF experiments are evaluated in this paper. The experiment including 3DVAR data assimilation outperforms the one without in simulating the TT index, CAPE, and CIN over the Iberian Peninsula. The ingredients for convective precipitation in winter are found at the Atlantic coast, but in summer they are at the Mediterranean coast.
The simulation of precipitation extreme events is a known problem in modelling. That is why the...
