Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 31 Mar 2021
| 31 Mar 2021
Improving soil moisture prediction of a high-resolution land surface model by parameterising pedotransfer functions through assimilation of SMAP satellite data
Ewan Pinnington
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Javier Amezcua
National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Elizabeth Cooper
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Simon Dadson
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Rich Ellis
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Jian Peng
Department of Remote Sensing, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Remote Sensing Centre for Earth System Research, Leipzig University, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
Emma Robinson
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Ross Morrison
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Simon Osborne
Met Office Field Site, Cardington Airfield, Shortstown, Bedford, UK
Tristan Quaife
National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Related authors
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Ewan Pinnington, Tristan Quaife, Amos Lawless, Karina Williams, Tim Arkebauer, and Dave Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present LAVENDAR, a mathematical method for combining observations with models of the terrestrial environment. Here we use it to improve estimates of crop growth in the UK Met Office land surface model. However, the method is model agnostic, requires no modification to the underlying code and can be applied to any part of the model. In the example application we improve estimates of maize yield by 74 % by assimilating observations of leaf area, crop height and photosynthesis.
Ewan Pinnington, Tristan Quaife, and Emily Black
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2575–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper combines satellite observations of precipitation and soil moisture to understand what key information they offer to improve land surface model estimates of soil moisture over Ghana. When both observations are combined with the chosen land surface model we reduce the unbiased root-mean-squared error in a 5-year model hindcast by 27 %; this bodes well for the production of improved soil moisture estimates over sub-Saharan Africa where subsistence farming remains prevalent.
Richard Essery, Giulia Mazzotti, Sarah Barr, Tobias Jonas, Tristan Quaife, and Nick Rutter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2546, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How forests influence accumulation and melt of snow on the ground is of long-standing interest, but uncertainty remains in how best to model forest snow processes. We developed the Flexible Snow Model version 2 to quantify these uncertainties. In a first model demonstration, how unloading of intercepted snow from the forest canopy is represented is responsible for the largest uncertainty. Global mapping of forest distribution is also likely to be a large source of uncertainty in existing models.
Bethan L. Harris, Tristan Quaife, Christopher M. Taylor, and Phil P. Harris
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1019–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1019-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1019-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The response of vegetation productivity to rainfall is a crucial process linking the water and carbon cycles and influencing the evolution of the climate system. However, there are many uncertainties in its representation in Earth system models. We show that the vegetation productivity responses to short-term rainfall events are very different between models due to their differing sensitivities to water availability. We also evaluate the models against a range of observational products.
Wolfgang Knorr, Matthew Williams, Tea Thum, Thomas Kaminski, Michael Voßbeck, Marko Scholze, Tristan Quaife, Luke Smallmann, Susan Steele-Dunne, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Tim Green, Sönke Zähle, Mika Aurela, Alexandre Bouvet, Emanuel Bueechi, Wouter Dorigo, Tarek El-Madany, Mirco Migliavacca, Marika Honkanen, Yann Kerr, Anna Kontu, Juha Lemmetyinen, Hannakaisa Lindqvist, Arnaud Mialon, Tuuli Miinalainen, Gaetan Pique, Amanda Ojasalo, Shaun Quegan, Peter Rayner, Pablo Reyes-Muñoz, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Mike Schwank, Jochem Verrelst, Songyan Zhu, Dirk Schüttemeyer, and Matthias Drusch
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1534, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When it comes to climate change, the land surfaces are where the vast majority of impacts happen. The task of monitoring those across the globe is formidable and must necessarily rely on satellites – at a significant cost: the measurements are only indirect and require comprehensive physical understanding. We have created a comprehensive modelling system that we offer to the research community to explore how satellite data can be better exploited to help us see what changes on our lands.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Amulya Chevuturi, Eugene Magee, Elizabeth Cooper, Robert H. B. Johnson, Katie Facer-Childs, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-179, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our research compares two techniques, Bias-Correction (BC) and Data Assimilation (DA), for improving river flow forecasts across 316 UK catchments. BC, which corrects errors post-simulation, showed broad improvements, while DA, adjusting model states pre-forecast, excelled in specific conditions like snowmelt and high base flows. Each method's unique strengths suit different scenarios. These insights can enhance forecasting systems, offering reliable and user-friendly hydrological predictions.
Lee de Mora, Ranjini Swaminathan, Richard P. Allan, Jerry C. Blackford, Douglas I. Kelley, Phil Harris, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Spencer Liddicoat, Robert J. Parker, Tristan Quaife, Jeremy Walton, and Andrew Yool
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1295–1315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the flux of carbon from the atmosphere into the land surface and ocean for multiple models and over a range of future scenarios. We did this by comparing simulations after the same change in the global-mean near-surface temperature. Using this method, we show that the choice of scenario can impact the carbon allocation to the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Scenarios with higher emissions reach the same warming levels sooner, but also with relatively more carbon in the atmosphere.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Jian Peng, Ellen Dyer, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Chris Funk, Hylke E. Beck, Dagmawi T. Asfaw, Michael B. Singer, and Simon J. Dadson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5449–5466, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is undeniably one of the most intricate and significant natural hazards with far-reaching consequences for the environment, economy, water resources, agriculture, and societies across the globe. In response to this challenge, we have devised high-resolution drought indices. These indices serve as invaluable indicators for assessing shifts in drought patterns and their associated impacts on a global, regional, and local level facilitating the development of tailored adaptation strategies.
Emma L. Robinson, Chris Huntingford, Valyaveetil Shamsudheen Semeena, and James M. Bullock
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5371–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5371-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5371-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
CHESS-SCAPE is a suite of high-resolution climate projections for the UK to 2080, derived from United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), designed to support climate impact modelling. It contains four realisations of four scenarios of future greenhouse gas levels (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5), with and without bias correction to historical data. The variables are available at 1 km resolution and a daily time step, with monthly, seasonal and annual means and 20-year mean-monthly time slices.
Emma L. Robinson, Matthew J. Brown, Alison L. Kay, Rosanna A. Lane, Rhian Chapman, Victoria A. Bell, and Eleanor M. Blyth
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4433–4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents two new Penman–Monteith potential evaporation datasets for the UK, calculated with the same methodology applied to historical climate data (Hydro-PE HadUK-Grid) and an ensemble of future climate projections (Hydro-PE UKCP18 RCM). Both include an optional correction for evaporation of rain that lands on the surface of vegetation. The historical data are consistent with existing PE datasets, and the future projections include effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on vegetation.
Elizabeth Cooper, Rich Ellis, Eleanor Blyth, and Simon Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1596, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We have tested a different way of simulating soil moisture and river flow. Instead of dividing the land up into over 10,000 squares to run our numerical model, we cluster the land into fewer, irregular areas with similar landscape characteristics. We show that different ways of clustering the landscape produce different patterns of soil moisture. We also show that with this method we can we match observations as well as our usual gridded approach for ten times less computational resource.
Camilla Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Andrew J. Hartley, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Eddy Robertson, Nicola Gedney, Karina Williams, Andy Wiltshire, Richard J. Ellis, Alistair A. Sellar, and Chris D. Jones
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4249–4264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4249-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes and evaluates a new modelling methodology to quantify the impacts of climate change on water, biomes and the carbon cycle. We have created a new configuration and set-up for the JULES-ES land surface model, driven by bias-corrected historical and future climate model output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). This allows us to compare projections of the impacts of climate change across multiple impact models and multiple sectors.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Samantha Petch, Bo Dong, Tristan Quaife, Robert P. King, and Keith Haines
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1723–1744, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Gravitational measurements of water storage from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) can improve understanding of the water budget. We produce flux estimates over large river catchments based on observations that close the monthly water budget and ensure consistency with GRACE on short and long timescales. We use energy data to provide additional constraints and balance the long-term energy budget. These flux estimates are important for evaluating climate models.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Thibault Hallouin, Richard J. Ellis, Douglas B. Clark, Simon J. Dadson, Andrew G. Hughes, Bryan N. Lawrence, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Jan Polcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9177–9196, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9177-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9177-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A new framework for modelling the water cycle in the land system has been implemented. It considers the hydrological cycle as three interconnected components, bringing flexibility in the choice of the physical processes and their spatio-temporal resolutions. It is designed to foster collaborations between land surface, hydrological, and groundwater modelling communities to develop the next-generation of land system models for integration in Earth system models.
Robert J. Parker, Chris Wilson, Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Toby R. Marthews, A. Anthony Bloom, Mark F. Lunt, Nicola Gedney, Simon J. Dadson, Joe McNorton, Neil Humpage, Hartmut Boesch, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Paul I. Palmer, and Dai Yamazaki
Biogeosciences, 19, 5779–5805, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane, one of the most important climate gases. The JULES land surface model simulates these emissions. We use satellite data to evaluate how well JULES reproduces the methane seasonal cycle over different tropical wetlands. It performs well for most regions; however, it struggles for some African wetlands influenced heavily by river flooding. We explain the reasons for these deficiencies and highlight how future development will improve these areas.
Bimal K. Bhattacharya, Kaniska Mallick, Devansh Desai, Ganapati S. Bhat, Ross Morrison, Jamie R. Clevery, William Woodgate, Jason Beringer, Kerry Cawse-Nicholson, Siyan Ma, Joseph Verfaillie, and Dennis Baldocchi
Biogeosciences, 19, 5521–5551, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5521-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5521-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation retrieval in heterogeneous ecosystems is challenging due to empirical estimation of ground heat flux and complex parameterizations of conductances. We developed a parameter-sparse coupled ground heat flux-evaporation model and tested it across different limits of water stress and vegetation fraction in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. The model performed particularly well in the savannas and showed good potential for evaporative stress monitoring from thermal infrared satellites.
Joshua Chun Kwang Lee, Javier Amezcua, and Ross Noel Bannister
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6197–6219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we implement a novel data assimilation method for the ABC–DA system which combines traditional data assimilation approaches in a hybrid approach. We document the technical development and test the hybrid approach in idealised experiments within a tropical framework of the ABC–DA system. Our findings indicate that the hybrid approach outperforms individual traditional approaches. Its potential benefits have been highlighted and should be explored further within this framework.
Shijie Li, Guojie Wang, Chenxia Zhu, Jiao Lu, Waheed Ullah, Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan, Giri Kattel, and Jian Peng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3691–3707, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3691-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3691-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We found that the precipitation variability dominantly controls global evapotranspiration (ET) in dry climates, while the net radiation has substantial control over ET in the tropical regions, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) impacts ET trends in boreal mid-latitude climate. The critical role of VPD in controlling ET trends is particularly emphasized due to its influence in controlling the carbon–water–energy cycle.
Toby R. Marthews, Simon J. Dadson, Douglas B. Clark, Eleanor M. Blyth, Garry D. Hayman, Dai Yamazaki, Olivia R. E. Becher, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Catherine Prigent, and Carlos Jiménez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3151–3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3151-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Reliable data on global inundated areas remain uncertain. By matching a leading global data product on inundation extents (GIEMS) against predictions from a global hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood), we found small but consistent and non-random biases in well-known tropical wetlands (Sudd, Pantanal, Amazon and Congo). These result from known limitations in the data and the models used, which shows us how to improve our ability to make critical predictions of inundation events in the future.
Chandan Sarangi, TC Chakraborty, Sachchidanand Tripathi, Mithun Krishnan, Ross Morrison, Jonathan Evans, and Lina M. Mercado
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3615–3629, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3615-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3615-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Transpiration fluxes by vegetation are reduced under heat stress to conserve water. However, in situ observations over northern India show that the strength of the inverse association between transpiration and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit is weakening in the presence of heavy aerosol loading. This finding not only implicates the significant role of aerosols in modifying the evaporative fraction (EF) but also warrants an in-depth analysis of the aerosol–plant–temperature–EF continuum.
Jiao Lu, Guojie Wang, Tiexi Chen, Shijie Li, Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan, Giri Kattel, Jian Peng, Tong Jiang, and Buda Su
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5879–5898, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5879-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5879-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study has combined three existing land evaporation (ET) products to obtain a single framework of a long-term (1980–2017) daily ET product at a spatial resolution of 0.25° to define the global proxy ET with lower uncertainties. The merged product is the best at capturing dynamics over different locations and times among all data sets. The merged product performed well over a range of vegetation cover scenarios and also captured the trend of land evaporation over different areas well.
Xiaolu Ling, Ying Huang, Weidong Guo, Yixin Wang, Chaorong Chen, Bo Qiu, Jun Ge, Kai Qin, Yong Xue, and Jian Peng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4209–4229, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4209-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4209-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture (SM) plays a critical role in the water and energy cycles of the Earth system, for which a long-term SM product with high quality is urgently needed. In situ observations are generally treated as the true value to systematically evaluate five SM products, including one remote sensing product and four reanalysis data sets during 1981–2013. This long-term intercomparison study provides clues for SM product enhancement and further hydrological applications.
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Hollie M. Cooper, Emma Bennett, James Blake, Eleanor Blyth, David Boorman, Elizabeth Cooper, Jonathan Evans, Matthew Fry, Alan Jenkins, Ross Morrison, Daniel Rylett, Simon Stanley, Magdalena Szczykulska, Emily Trill, Vasileios Antoniou, Anne Askquith-Ellis, Lucy Ball, Milo Brooks, Michael A. Clarke, Nicholas Cowan, Alexander Cumming, Philip Farrand, Olivia Hitt, William Lord, Peter Scarlett, Oliver Swain, Jenna Thornton, Alan Warwick, and Ben Winterbourn
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1737–1757, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1737-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1737-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
COSMOS-UK is a UK network of environmental monitoring sites, with a focus on measuring field-scale soil moisture. Each site includes soil and hydrometeorological sensors providing data including air temperature, humidity, net radiation, neutron counts, snow water equivalent, and potential evaporation. These data can provide information for science, industry, and agriculture by improving existing understanding and data products in fields such as water resources, space sciences, and biodiversity.
Simon J. Dadson, Eleanor Blyth, Douglas Clark, Helen Davies, Richard Ellis, Huw Lewis, Toby Marthews, and Ponnambalan Rameshwaran
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-60, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Flood prediction helps national and regional planning and real-time flood response. In this study we apply and test a new way to make wide area predictions of flooding which can be combined with weather forecasting and climate models to give faster predictions of flooded areas. By simplifying the detailed floodplain topography we can keep track of the fraction of land flooded for hazard mapping purposes. When tested this approach accurately reproduces benchmark datasets for England.
Gemma Coxon, Nans Addor, John P. Bloomfield, Jim Freer, Matt Fry, Jamie Hannaford, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Rosanna Lane, Melinda Lewis, Emma L. Robinson, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain. The dataset collates river flows, catchment attributes, and catchment boundaries for 671 catchments across Great Britain. We characterise the topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soils, hydrogeology, human influence, and discharge uncertainty of each catchment. The dataset is publicly available for the community to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.
Emma L. Robinson and Douglas B. Clark
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1763–1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1763-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1763-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study used a water balance approach based on GRACE total water storage to infer the amount of cold-season precipitation in four Arctic river basins. This was used to evaluate four gridded meteorological data sets, which were used as inputs to a land surface model. We found that the cold-season precipitation in these data sets needed to be increased by up to 55 %. Using these higher precipitation inputs improved the model representation of Arctic hydrology, particularly lying snow.
Jian Peng, Simon Dadson, Feyera Hirpa, Ellen Dyer, Thomas Lees, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Chris Funk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 753–769, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Africa has been severely influenced by intense drought events, which has led to crop failure, food shortages, famine, epidemics and even mass migration. The current study developed a high spatial resolution drought dataset entirely from satellite-based products. The dataset has been comprehensively inter-compared with other drought indicators and may contribute to an improved characterization of drought risk and vulnerability and minimize drought's impact on water and food security in Africa.
Ewan Pinnington, Tristan Quaife, Amos Lawless, Karina Williams, Tim Arkebauer, and Dave Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present LAVENDAR, a mathematical method for combining observations with models of the terrestrial environment. Here we use it to improve estimates of crop growth in the UK Met Office land surface model. However, the method is model agnostic, requires no modification to the underlying code and can be applied to any part of the model. In the example application we improve estimates of maize yield by 74 % by assimilating observations of leaf area, crop height and photosynthesis.
Elizabeth S. Cooper, Sarah L. Dance, Javier García-Pintado, Nancy K. Nichols, and Polly J. Smith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2541–2559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2541-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2541-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding from rivers is a huge and costly problem worldwide. Computer simulations can help to warn people if and when they are likely to be affected by river floodwater, but such predictions are not always accurate or reliable. Information about flood extent from satellites can help to keep these forecasts on track. Here we investigate different ways of using information from satellite images and look at the effect on computer predictions. This will help to develop flood warning systems.
Dagmawi Asfaw, Emily Black, Matthew Brown, Kathryn Jane Nicklin, Frederick Otu-Larbi, Ewan Pinnington, Andrew Challinor, Ross Maidment, and Tristan Quaife
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2353–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
TAMSAT-ALERT is a framework for combining observational and forecast information into continually updated assessments of the likelihood of user-defined adverse events like low cumulative rainfall or lower than average crop yield. It is easy to use and flexible to accommodate any impact model that uses meteorological data. The results show that it can be used to monitor the meteorological impact on yield within a growing season and to test the value of routinely issued seasonal forecasts.
Ewan Pinnington, Tristan Quaife, and Emily Black
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2575–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper combines satellite observations of precipitation and soil moisture to understand what key information they offer to improve land surface model estimates of soil moisture over Ghana. When both observations are combined with the chosen land surface model we reduce the unbiased root-mean-squared error in a 5-year model hindcast by 27 %; this bodes well for the production of improved soil moisture estimates over sub-Saharan Africa where subsistence farming remains prevalent.
Eleanor M. Blyth, Alberto Martinez-de la Torre, and Emma L. Robinson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-153, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, the water budget of the land is subject to varying forces such as increasing evaporative demand, mainly through the increased temperature, and changes to the precipitation, which might go up or down. Using a verified, physically based model over with 55 years, an analysis of the water budget demonstrates that Great Britain is getting warmer and wetter. We demonstrated that amount of water captured on the trees has an impact on the overall trend.
Robin J. Hogan, Tristan Quaife, and Renato Braghiere
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 339–350, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-339-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a fast new method for calculating how much sunlight is absorbed and reflected by forests and other types of vegetation, rigorously taking account of the complex 3-D structure. Careful evaluation shows it to perform well even in difficult scenes with snow on the ground. The method is suitable for use within the computer models used to make weather and climate forecasts, where it has the potential to improve predictions of near-surface temperature and photosynthesis rates.
Karina Williams, Jemma Gornall, Anna Harper, Andy Wiltshire, Debbie Hemming, Tristan Quaife, Tim Arkebauer, and David Scoby
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1291–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1291-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study looks in detail at how well the crop model within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), a community land-surface model, is able to simulate irrigated maize in Nebraska. We use the results to point to future priorities for model development and describe how our methodology can be adapted to set up model runs for other sites and crop varieties.
Emma L. Robinson, Eleanor M. Blyth, Douglas B. Clark, Jon Finch, and Alison C. Rudd
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1189–1224, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1189-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1189-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a dataset of daily meteorological variables at 1 km resolution over Great Britain (1961–2012), calculated by spatially downscaling coarser resolution datasets, adjusting for local topography, along with derived potential evapotranspiration (PET). A positive trend in PET was identified and attributed to trends in the meteorology. The trend in PET is particularly driven by decreasing relative humidity and increasing shortwave radiation in the spring.
Bart van den Hurk, Hyungjun Kim, Gerhard Krinner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Chris Derksen, Taikan Oki, Hervé Douville, Jeanne Colin, Agnès Ducharne, Frederique Cheruy, Nicholas Viovy, Michael J. Puma, Yoshihide Wada, Weiping Li, Binghao Jia, Andrea Alessandri, Dave M. Lawrence, Graham P. Weedon, Richard Ellis, Stefan Hagemann, Jiafu Mao, Mark G. Flanner, Matteo Zampieri, Stefano Materia, Rachel M. Law, and Justin Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript describes the setup of the CMIP6 project Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP).
Jian Peng, Alexander Loew, Xuelong Chen, Yaoming Ma, and Zhongbo Su
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3167-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3167-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Tibetan Plateau plays a major role in regional and global climate. The knowledge of latent heat flux can help to better describe the complex interactions between land and atmosphere. The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed cross-comparison of existing latent heat flux products over the TP. The results highlight the recently developed latent heat product – High Resolution Land Surface Parameters from Space (HOLAPS).
Alexander Loew, Jian Peng, and Michael Borsche
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2499–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2499-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Surface water and energy fluxes are essential components of the Earth system. The present paper introduces a new framework for the estimation of surface energy and water fluxes at the land surface, which allows for temporally and spatially high resolved flux estimates at the global scale. The framework maximizes the usage of existing long-term satellite data records. Overall the results indicate very good agreement with in situ observations when compared against 49 FLUXNET stations worldwide.
J. Peng, J. Niesel, and A. Loew
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4765–4782, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4765-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper gives a comprehensive evaluation of a simple newly developed downscaling scheme using in situ measurements from REMEDHUS network, a first cross-comparison of the performance of the downscaled soil moisture from MODIS and MSG SEVIRI, an evaluation of the performance of the downscaled soil moisture at different spatial resolutions, and an exploration of the influence of LST, vegetation index, terrain, clouds, and land cover heterogeneity on the performance of VTCI.
S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, N. Gruber, S. D. Jones, G. Murray-Tortarolo, A. Ahlström, S. C. Doney, H. Graven, C. Heinze, C. Huntingford, S. Levis, P. E. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, N. Zeng, A. Arneth, G. Bonan, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, F. Chevallier, P. Ciais, R. Ellis, M. Gloor, P. Peylin, S. L. Piao, C. Le Quéré, B. Smith, Z. Zhu, and R. Myneni
Biogeosciences, 12, 653–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-653-2015, 2015
A. Loew, P. M. van Bodegom, J.-L. Widlowski, J. Otto, T. Quaife, B. Pinty, and T. Raddatz
Biogeosciences, 11, 1873–1897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1873-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1873-2014, 2014
J. Peng, M. Borsche, Y. Liu, and A. Loew
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3913–3919, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3913-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3913-2013, 2013
R. Morrison, A. M. J. Cumming, H. E. Taft, J. Kaduk, S. E. Page, D. L. Jones, R. J. Harding, and H. Balzter
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-4193-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-4193-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell lifecycles with a copula-based approach
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Observation-driven model for calculating water harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Review of Gridded Climate Products and Their Use in Hydrological Analyses Reveals Overlaps, Gaps, and Need for More Objective Approach to Model Forcings
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
Downscaling precipitation over High Mountain Asia using Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Processes: Improved estimates from ERA5
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1463, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a method for deriving the chance of heavy downpour, the maximum amount expected at various intervals, and explain how the rainfall changes. It suggests that increases are more due to increased amounts on wet days rather than more wet days, and the rainfall intensity is found to be sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1540, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to better model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and to reconstruct storm cell lifecycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential model for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo de Rio
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-110, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligates us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting emerges as a complementary one in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate fog harvesting potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where fog harvesting could be a viable water source.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-58, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 60 gridded climate datasets [ground- (G), satellite- (S), reanalysis-based (R)]. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; but R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, though better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2145, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High Mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 2 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows comparable or better accuracy to existing benchmark datasets.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Cited articles
Abbaszadeh, P., Gavahi, K., and Moradkhani, H.: Multivariate remotely sensed
and in-situ data assimilation for enhancing community WRF-Hydro model
forecasting, Adv. Water Resour., 145, 103721,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103721, 2020. a
Anderson, J. L. and Anderson, S. L.: A Monte Carlo Implementation of the
Nonlinear Filtering Problem to Produce Ensemble Assimilations and Forecasts,
Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 2741–2758,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2741:AMCIOT>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Asfaw, D., Black, E., Brown, M., Nicklin, K. J., Otu-Larbi, F., Pinnington, E., Challinor, A., Maidment, R., and Quaife, T.: TAMSAT-ALERT v1: a new framework for agricultural decision support, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2353–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2353-2018, 2018. a
Baatz, R., Bogena, H., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., Huisman, J., Qu, W.,
Montzka, C., and Vereecken, H.: Calibration of a catchment scale cosmic-ray
probe network: A comparison of three parameterization methods, J.
Hydrol., 516, 231–244,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.02.026, 2014. a, b
Baatz, R., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., Han, X., Hoar, T., Bogena, H. R., and Vereecken, H.: Evaluation of a cosmic-ray neutron sensor network for improved land surface model prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2509–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2509-2017, 2017. a
Bateni, S. M. and Entekhabi, D.: Relative efficiency of land surface energy
balance components, Water Resour. Res., 48, W04510, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011357, 2012. a
Beljaars, A. C. M., Viterbo, P., Miller, M. J., and Betts, A. K.: The Anomalous
Rainfall over the United States during July 1993: Sensitivity to Land Surface
Parameterization and Soil Moisture Anomalies, Mon. Weather Rev., 124,
362–383, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<0362:TAROTU>2.0.CO;2, 1996. a
Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A., Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011. a
Beven, K.: How far can we go in distributed hydrological modelling?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-5-1-2001, 2001. a
Beven, K. and Binley, A.: The future of distributed models: Model calibration
and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279–298,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360060305, 1992. a
Bishop, C. H., Etherton, B. J., and Majumdar, S. J.: Adaptive Sampling with the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Part I: Theoretical Aspects, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 420–436, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0420:ASWTET>2.0.CO;2, 2001. a
Bocquet, M. and Sakov, P.: Joint state and parameter estimation with an iterative ensemble Kalman smoother, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 803–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-803-2013, 2013. a
Bogena, H. R., Huisman, J. A., Güntner, A., Hübner, C., Kusche, J., Jonard,
F., Vey, S., and Vereecken, H.: Emerging methods for noninvasive sensing of
soil moisture dynamics from field to catchment scale: a review, WIREs Water,
2, 635–647, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1097, 2015. a
Bormann, N., Bonavita, M., Dragani, R., Eresmaa, R., Matricardi, M., and
McNally, A.: Enhancing the impact of IASI observations through an updated
observation error covariance matrix, ECMWF Technical Memorandum Number 756, ECMWF, https://doi.org/10.21957/gq8j2gjp7, 2015. a
Botto, A., Belluco, E., and Camporese, M.: Multi-source data assimilation for physically based hydrological modeling of an experimental hillslope, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4251–4266, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4251-2018, 2018. a
Chen, F., Crow, W. T., Bindlish, R., Colliander, A., Burgin, M. S., Asanuma,
J., and Aida, K.: Global-scale evaluation of SMAP, SMOS and ASCAT soil
moisture products using triple collocation, Remote Sens. Environ.,
214, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.05.008, 2018. a
Clark, D. B., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Jones, C. D., Gedney, N., Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Harding, R. J., Huntingford, C., and Cox, P. M.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011. a, b
Clark, P., Roberts, N., Lean, H., Ballard, S. P., and Charlton-Perez, C.:
Convection-permitting models: a step-change in rainfall forecasting,
Meteorol. Appl., 23, 165–181, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1538, 2016. a
Colliander, A., Jackson, T., Bindlish, R., Chan, S., Das, N., Kim, S., Cosh,
M., Dunbar, R., Dang, L., Pashaian, L., Asanuma, J., Aida, K., Berg, A.,
Rowlandson, T., Bosch, D., Caldwell, T., Caylor, K., Goodrich, D., al
Jassar, H., Lopez-Baeza, E., Martínez-Fernàndez, J.,
Gonzàlez-Zamora, A., Livingston, S., McNairn, H., Pacheco, A., Moghaddam,
M., Montzka, C., Notarnicola, C., Niedrist, G., Pellarin, T., Prueger, J.,
Pulliainen, J., Rautiainen, K., Ramos, J., Seyfried, M., Starks, P., Su, Z.,
Zeng, Y., van der Velde, R., Thibeault, M., Dorigo, W., Vreugdenhil, M.,
Walker, J., Wu, X., Monerris, A., O'Neill, P., Entekhabi, D., Njoku, E., and
Yueh, S.: Validation of SMAP surface soil moisture products with core
validation sites, Remote Sens. Environ., 191, 215–231,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.01.021, 2017. a, b, c
Cosby, B. J., Hornberger, G. M., Clapp, R. B., and Ginn, T. R.: A Statistical
Exploration of the Relationships of Soil Moisture Characteristics to the
Physical Properties of Soils, Water Resour. Res., 20, 682–690,
https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i006p00682, 1984. a, b
Courtier, P., Thépaut, J.-N., and Hollingsworth, A.: A strategy for
operational implementation of 4D-Var, using an incremental approach,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 1367–1387,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712051912, 1994. a
De Lannoy, G. J. M. and Reichle, R. H.: Assimilation of SMOS brightness temperatures or soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4895–4911, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4895-2016, 2016. a
Desilets, D. and Zreda, M.: Footprint diameter for a cosmic-ray soil moisture
probe: Theory and Monte Carlo simulations, Water Resour. Res., 49,
3566–3575, https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20187, 2013. a
Draper, C. S., Reichle, R. H., De Lannoy, G. J. M., and Liu, Q.: Assimilation
of passive and active microwave soil moisture retrievals, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050655, 2012. a
Duygu, M. B. and Akyürek, Z.: Using Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probes in Validating
Satellite Soil Moisture Products and Land Surface Models, Water, 11, 1362,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071362, 2019. a
Entekhabi, D., Njoku, E. G., O'Neill, P. E., Kellogg, K. H., Crow,
W. T., Edelstein, W. N., Entin, J. K., Goodman, S. D., Jackson,
T. J., Johnson, J., Kimball, J., Piepmeier, J. R., Koster, R. D.,
Martin, N., McDonald, K. C., Moghaddam, M., Moran, S., Reichle, R.,
Shi, J. C., Spencer, M. W., Thurman, S. W., Tsang, L., and Van Zyl,
J.: The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission, P. IEEE,
98, 704–716, 2010. a, b, c
Evensen, G.: The Ensemble Kalman Filter: theoretical formulation and practical
implementation, Ocean Dynam., 53, 343–367,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-003-0036-9, 2003. a, b
Evensen, G.: Analysis of iterative ensemble smoothers for solving inverse
problems, Computat. Geosci., 22, 885–908,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-018-9731-y, 2018. a
Evans, J. G., Ward, H. C., Blake, J. R., Hewitt, E. J., Morrison, R., Fry, M.,
Ball, L. A., Doughty, L. C., Libre, J. W., Hitt, O. E., Rylett, D., Ellis,
R. J., Warwick, A. C., Brooks, M., Parkes, M. A., Wright, G. M. H., Singer,
A. C., Boorman, D. B., and Jenkins, A.: Soil water content in southern
England derived from a cosmic-ray soil moisture observing system –
COSMOS-UK, Hydrol. Process., 30, 4987–4999, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10929,
2016. a
Fischer, G., Nachtergaele, F., Prieler, S., Van Velthuizen, H., Verelst, L.,
and Wiberg, D.: Global agro-ecological zones assessment for agriculture
(GAEZ 2008), IIASA, Laxenburg, and FAO, Rome, Italy, available at:
http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil-maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil-database-v12/en/
(last access: 28 April 2020), 2008. a, b, c, d, e
Fowler, A. M., Dance, S. L., and Waller, J. A.: On the interaction of
observation and prior error correlations in data assimilation, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 48–62,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3183, 2018. a
Fratini, G. and Mauder, M.: Towards a consistent eddy-covariance processing: an intercomparison of EddyPro and TK3, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2273–2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2273-2014, 2014. a
Han, X., Franssen, H.-J. H., Montzka, C., and Vereecken, H.: Soil moisture and
soil properties estimation in the Community Land Model with synthetic
brightness temperature observations, Water Resour. Res., 50,
6081–6105, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014586, 2014. a, b, c, d
Hauser, M., Orth, R., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions with prescribed soil moisture experiments: an assessment with the Community Earth System Model (version 1.2), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1665–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1665-2017, 2017. a
Hilton, F., Collard, A., Guidard, V., Randriamampianina, R., and Schwaerz, M.: Assimilation of IASI radiances at European NWP centres, available at:
https://www.ecmwf.int/node/15331 (last access: 29 March 2021), 2009. a
Houtekamer, P. L. and Mitchell, H. L.: Data Assimilation Using an Ensemble
Kalman Filter Technique, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 796–811,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0796:DAUAEK>2.0.CO;2, 1998. a
Howes, K. E., Fowler, A. M., and Lawless, A. S.: Accounting for model error in
strong-constraint 4D-Var data assimilation, Q. J.
Meteor. Soc., 143, 1227–1240, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2996, 2017. a
Hunt, B. R., Kostelich, E. J., and Szunyogh, I.: Efficient data assimilation for spatiotemporal chaos: A local ensemble transform Kalman filter, Physica D, 230, 112–126, 2007. a
Kawanishi, T., Sezai, T., Ito, Y., Imaoka, K., Takeshima, T.,
Ishido, Y., Shibata, A., Miura, M., Inahata, H., and Spencer,
R. W.: The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing
System (AMSR-E), NASDA's contribution to the EOS for global energy and water
cycle studies, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 41,
184–194, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2002.808331, 2003. a
Köhli, M., Schrön, M., Zreda, M., Schmidt, U., Dietrich, P., and
Zacharias, S.: Footprint characteristics revised for field-scale soil
moisture monitoring with cosmic-ray neutrons, Water Resour. Res., 51,
5772–5790, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017169, 2015. a, b, c
Kolassa, J., Reichle, R., and Draper, C.: Merging active and passive microwave
observations in soil moisture data assimilation, Remote Sens.
Environ., 191, 117–130, 2017. a
Li, C., Lu, H., Yang, K., Han, M., Wright, J., Chen, Y., Yu, L., Xu, S., Huang,
X., and Gong, W.: The Evaluation of SMAP Enhanced Soil Moisture Products
Using High-Resolution Model Simulations and In-Situ Observations on the
Tibetan Plateau, Remote Sens., 10, 535, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10040535, 2018. a
Lievens, H., Reichle, R. H., Liu, Q., De Lannoy, G. J. M., Dunbar, R. S., Kim,
S. B., Das, N. N., Cosh, M., Walker, J. P., and Wagner, W.: Joint Sentinel-1
and SMAP data assimilation to improve soil moisture estimates, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 44, 6145–6153, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073904, 2017. a
Liu, Q., Reichle, R. H., Bindlish, R., Cosh, M. H., Crow, W. T., de Jeu, R.,
De Lannoy, G. J. M., Huffman, G. J., and Jackson, T. J.: The Contributions of
Precipitation and Soil Moisture Observations to the Skill of Soil Moisture
Estimates in a Land Data Assimilation System, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 750–765, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-10-05000.1, 2011. a
Lorenc, A. C. and Rawlins, F.: Why does 4D-Var beat 3D-Var?, Q. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3247–3257, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.85,
2005. a
Marthews, T. R., Quesada, C. A., Galbraith, D. R., Malhi, Y., Mullins, C. E., Hodnett, M. G., and Dharssi, I.: High-resolution hydraulic parameter maps for surface soils in tropical South America, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 711–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-711-2014, 2014. a
Martinez-de la Torre, A., Blyth, E., and Robinson, E.: Water, carbon and energy fluxes simulation for Great Britain using the JULES Land Surface Model and the Climate Hydrology and Ecology research Support System, meteorology dataset (1961–2015) [CHESS-land],
https://doi.org/10.5285/c76096d6-45d4-4a69-a310-4c67f8dcf096, 2018. a
Martínez-de la Torre, A., Blyth, E. M., and Weedon, G. P.: Using observed river flow data to improve the hydrological functioning of the JULES land surface model (vn4.3) used for regional coupled modelling in Great Britain (UKC2), Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 765–784, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-765-2019, 2019. a
Maurer, E. P. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential Effects of Long-Lead Hydrologic Predictability on Missouri River Main-Stem Reservoirs, J. Climate, 17, 174–186, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0174:PEOLHP>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Minamide, M. and Zhang, F.: Adaptive Observation Error Inflation for
Assimilating All-Sky Satellite Radiance, Mon. Weather Rev., 145,
1063–1081, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0257.1, 2017. a
Mizukami, N., Clark, M. P., Newman, A. J., Wood, A. W., Gutmann, E. D.,
Nijssen, B., Rakovec, O., and Samaniego, L.: Towards seamless large-domain
parameter estimation for hydrologic models, Water Resour. Res., 53,
8020–8040, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020401, 2017. a
Montzka, C., Moradkhani, H., Weihermüller, L., Franssen, H.-J. H., Canty,
M., and Vereecken, H.: Hydraulic parameter estimation by remotely-sensed top
soil moisture observations with the particle filter, J. Hydrol.,
399, 410–421, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.020, 2011. a
Montzka, C., Bogena, H. R., Zreda, M., Monerris, A., Morrison, R., Muddu, S.,
and Vereecken, H.: Validation of Spaceborne and Modelled Surface Soil
Moisture Products with Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probes, Remote Sens., 9, 103,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9020103, 2017. a
Moradkhani, H., Sorooshian, S., Gupta, H. V., and Houser, P. R.: Dual
state-parameter estimation of hydrological models using ensemble Kalman
filter, Adv. Water Resour., 28, 135–147,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.09.002, 2005. a, b
Morrison, R., Cooper, H., Cumming, A., Evans, C., Thornton, J., Winterbourn,
J., Rylett, D., and Jones, D.: Eddy covariance measurements of carbon
dioxide, energy and water fluxes at a cropland and a grassland on lowland
peat soils, East Anglia, UK, 2016–2019, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology data set,
https://doi.org/10.5285/2fe84b80-117a-4b19-a1f5-71bbd1dba9c9, 2020. a
Nearing, G. S., Moran, M. S., Thorp, K. R., Collins, C. D. H., and Slack,
D. C.: Likelihood parameter estimation for calibrating a soil moisture model
using radar bakscatter, Remote Sens. Environ., 114, 2564–2574,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.05.031, 2010. a, b
Osborne, S. R. and Weedon, G. P.: Observations and Modeling of
Evapotranspiration and Dewfall during the 2018 Meteorological Drought in
Southern England, J. Hydrometeorol., 22, 279–295, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0148.1, 2021. a
Papale, D., Reichstein, M., Aubinet, M., Canfora, E., Bernhofer, C., Kutsch, W., Longdoz, B., Rambal, S., Valentini, R., Vesala, T., and Yakir, D.: Towards a standardized processing of Net Ecosystem Exchange measured with eddy covariance technique: algorithms and uncertainty estimation, Biogeosciences, 3, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-3-571-2006, 2006. a
Peng, J., Pinnington, E., Robinson, E., Evans, J., Quaife, T., Harris, P., and Blyth, E.: A high-resolution soil moisture dataset from merged model and Earth observation data in Great Britain, Remote Sens. Environ., in review, 2021. a
Pinnington, E.: pyearthsci/lavendar: First release of LaVEnDAR software (Version v1.0.0), Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2654853, 2019. a
Pinnington, E.: LAVENDAR Rose-suite repository, Met-Office trac system, availalbe at: https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/roses-u/browser/b/q/3/5/7/trunk (last access: 29 March 2021), 2020. a
Pinnington, E., Quaife, T., and Black, E.: Impact of remotely sensed soil moisture and precipitation on soil moisture prediction in a data assimilation system with the JULES land surface model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2575–2588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2575-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Pinnington, E., Quaife, T., Lawless, A., Williams, K., Arkebauer, T., and Scoby, D.: The Land Variational Ensemble Data Assimilation Framework: LAVENDAR v1.0.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Pinnington, E. M., Casella, E., Dance, S. L., Lawless, A. S., Morison, J. I.,
Nichols, N. K., Wilkinson, M., and Quaife, T. L.: Investigating the role of
prior and observation error correlations in improving a model forecast of
forest carbon balance using Four-dimensional Variational data assimilation,
Agr. Forest Meteorol., 228/229, 299–314,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.006, 2016. a
Pitman, A. J., Henderson-Sellers, A., Desborough, C. E., Yang, Z. L.,
Abramopoulos, F., Boone, A., Dickinson, R. E., Gedney, N., Koster, R.,
Kowalczyk, E., Lettenmaier, D., Liang, X., Mahfouf, J. F., Noilhan, J.,
Polcher, J., Qu, W., Robock, A., Rosenzweig, C., Schlosser, C. A., Shmakin,
A. B., Smith, J., Suarez, M., Verseghy, D., Wetzel, P., Wood, E., and Xue,
Y.: Key results and implications from phase 1(c) of the Project for
Intercomparison of Land-surface Parametrization Schemes, Clim. Dynam.,
15, 673–684, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050309, 1999. a
Reichle, R. H., De Lannoy, G. J. M., Liu, Q., Ardizzone, J. V., Colliander, A., Conaty, A., Crow, W., Jackson, T. J., Jones, L. A., Kimball, J. S., Koster, R. D., Mahanama, S. P., Smith, E. B., Berg, A., Bircher, S., Bosch, D., Caldwell, T. G., Cosh, M., Gonzàlez-Zamora, A., Holifield Collins, C. D., Jensen, K. H., Livingston, S., Lopez-Baeza, E., Martínez-Fernàndez, J., McNairn, H., Moghaddam, M., Pacheco, A., Pellarin, T., Prueger, J., Rowlandson, T., Seyfried, M., Starks, P., Su, Z., Thibeault, M., van der Velde, R., Walker, J., Wu, X., and Zeng, Y.: Assessment of the SMAP Level-4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product Using In Situ Measurements, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 2621–2645, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0063.1, 2017. a
Reichstein, M., Falge, E., Baldocchi, D., Papale, D., Aubinet, M., Berbigier,
P., Bernhofer, C., Buchmann, N., Gilmanov, T., Granier, A., Grünwald, T.,
Havránková, K., Ilvesniemi, H., Janous, D., Knohl, A., Laurila, T., Lohila,
A., Loustau, D., Matteucci, G., Meyers, T., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J.-M.,
Pumpanen, J., Rambal, S., Rotenberg, E., Sanz, M., Tenhunen, J., Seufert, G.,
Vaccari, F., Vesala, T., Yakir, D., and Valentini, R.: On the separation of
net ecosystem exchange into assimilation and ecosystem respiration: review
and improved algorithm, Glob. Change Biol., 11, 1424–1439,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.001002.x, 2005. a, b
Reichstein, M., Moffat, A., Wutzler, T., and Sickel, K.: REddyProc: Data
processing and plotting utilities of (half-) hourly eddy-covariance
measurements, R package version 0.6-0/r9, available at: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/REddyProc/index.html (last access: 29 March 2021), 2014. a
Ridler, M.-E., Zhang, D., Madsen, H., Kidmose, J., Refsgaard, J. C., and
Jensen, K. H.: Bias-aware data assimilation in integrated hydrological
modelling, Hydrol. Res., 49, 989–1004, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.117,
2017. a
Robinson, E., Blyth, E., Clark, D., Comyn-Platt, E., Finch, J., and Rudd, A.:
Climate hydrology and ecology research support system meteorology dataset for
Great Britain (1961–2015) [CHESS-met] v1.2,
https://doi.org/10.5285/b745e7b1-626c-4ccc-ac27-56582e77b900, 2017. a
Rosolem, R., Hoar, T., Arellano, A., Anderson, J. L., Shuttleworth, W. J., Zeng, X., and Franz, T. E.: Translating aboveground cosmic-ray neutron intensity to high-frequency soil moisture profiles at sub-kilometer scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4363–4379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4363-2014, 2014. a
Samaniego, L., Kumar, R., and Attinger, S.: Multiscale parameter
regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale, Water
Resour. Res., 46, W05523, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007327, 2010. a
Sawada, Y. and Koike, T.: Simultaneous estimation of both hydrological and
ecological parameters in an ecohydrological model by assimilating microwave
signal, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 8839–8857,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021536, 2014. a, b
Schaap, M. G., Nemes, A., and van Genuchten, M. T.: Comparison of Models for
Indirect Estimation of Water Retention and Available Water in Surface Soils,
Vadose Zone J., 3, 1455–1463, https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2004.1455, 2004. a
Shuttleworth, J., Rosolem, R., Zreda, M., and Franz, T.: The COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Interaction Code (COSMIC) for use in data assimilation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3205–3217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3205-2013, 2013. a
Stanley, S., Antoniou, V., Ball, L., Bennett, E., Blake, J., Boorman, D.,
Brooks, M., Clarke, M., Cooper, H., Cowan, N., Evans, J., Farrand, P., Fry,
M., Hitt, O., Jenkins, A., Kral, F., Lord, W., Morrison, R., Nash, G.,
Rylett, D., Scarlett, P., Swain, O., Thornton, J., Trill, E., Warwick, A.,
and Winterbourn, J.: Daily and sub-daily hydrometeorological and soil data
(2013–2017) [COSMOS-UK], https://doi.org/10.5285/a6012796-291c-4fd6-a7ef-6f6ed0a6cfa5, 2019. a, b
Stewart, L. M., Dance, S. L., Nichols, N. K., Eyre, J. R., and Cameron, J.:
Estimating interchannel observation-error correlations for IASI radiance data
in the Met Office system†, Q. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 140, 1236–1244, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2211, 2014. a
Tapley, B. D., Bettadpur, S., Ries, J. C., Thompson, P. F., and Watkins, M. M.:
GRACE Measurements of Mass Variability in the Earth System, Science, 305,
503–505, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1099192, 2004. a
Thiemann, M., Trosset, M., Gupta, H., and Sorooshian, S.: Bayesian recursive
parameter estimation for hydrologic models, Water Resour. Res., 37,
2521–2535, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900405, 2001. a
Tifafi, M., Guenet, B., and Hatté, C.: Large Differences in Global and
Regional Total Soil Carbon Stock Estimates Based on SoilGrids, HWSD, and
NCSCD: Intercomparison and Evaluation Based on Field Data From USA, England,
Wales, and France, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 32, 42–56,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005678, 2018. a
Van Looy, K., Bouma, J., Herbst, M., Koestel, J., Minasny, B., Mishra, U.,
Montzka, C., Nemes, A., Pachepsky, Y. A., Padarian, J., Schaap, M. G., Tóth,
B., Verhoef, A., Vanderborght, J., van der Ploeg, M. J., Weihermüller, L.,
Zacharias, S., Zhang, Y., and Vereecken, H.: Pedotransfer Functions in Earth
System Science: Challenges and Perspectives, Rev. Geophys., 55,
1199–1256, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000581, 2017. a
Vrugt, J. A., Gupta, H. V., Bouten, W., and Sorooshian, S.: A Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters, Water Resour. Res., 39, 1201,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001642, 2003. a
Wagner, W., Hahn, S., Kidd, R., Melzer, T., Bartalis, Z., Hasenauer, S.,
Figa-Saldaña, J., de Rosnay, P., Jann, A., Schneider, S., Komma, J.,
Kubu, G., Brugger, K., Aubrecht, C., Züger, J., Gangkofner, U.,
Kienberger, S., Brocca, L., Wang, Y., Blöschl, G., Eitzinger, J.,
Steinnocher, K., Zeil, P., and Rubel, F.: The ASCAT Soil Moisture Product:
A Review of its Specifications, Validation Results, and Emerging
Applications, Meteorol. Z., 22, 5–33,
https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0399, 2013. a
Walker, J. P., Willgoose, G. R., and Kalma, J. D.: In situ measurement of soil
moisture: a comparison of techniques, J. Hydrol., 293, 85–99,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.01.008, 2004. a
Wang, P., Li, J., Li, Z., Lim, A. H. N., Li, J., and Goldberg, M. D.: Impacts
of Observation Errors on Hurricane Forecasts When Assimilating Hyperspectral
Infrared Sounder Radiances in Partially Cloudy Skies, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 124, 10802–10813, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031029,
2019.
a
Wang, X., Bishop, C. H., and Julier, S. J.: Which Is Better, an Ensemble of Positive–Negative Pairs or a Centered Spherical Simplex Ensemble?, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1590–1605, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1590:WIBAEO>2.0.CO;2, 2004. a
Wösten, J., Lilly, A., Nemes, A., and Le Bas, C.: Development and use of a
database of hydraulic properties of European soils, Geoderma, 90, 169–185, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7061(98)00132-3, 1999. a, b
Yang, K., Zhu, L., Chen, Y., Zhao, L., Qin, J., Lu, H., Tang, W., Han, M.,
Ding, B., and Fang, N.: Land surface model calibration through microwave data
assimilation for improving soil moisture simulations, J. Hydrol.,
533, 266–276, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.12.018, 2016. a, b, c, d
Zhang, R., Kim, S., and Sharma, A.: A comprehensive validation of the SMAP
Enhanced Level-3 Soil Moisture product using ground measurements over varied
climates and landscapes, Remote Sens. Environ., 223, 82–94,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.01.015, 2019. a, b, c, d
Zheng, D., Li, X., Wang, X., Wang, Z., Wen, J., van der Velde, R., Schwank,
M., and Su, Z.: Sampling depth of L-band radiometer measurements of soil
moisture and freeze-thaw dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau, Remote Sens.
Environ., 226, 16–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.03.029,
2019. a
Zreda, M., Desilets, D., Ferré, T. P. A., and Scott, R. L.: Measuring soil
moisture content non-invasively at intermediate spatial scale using
cosmic-ray neutrons, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L21402,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035655, 2008. a, b
Zreda, M., Shuttleworth, W. J., Zeng, X., Zweck, C., Desilets, D., Franz, T., and Rosolem, R.: COSMOS: the COsmic-ray Soil Moisture Observing System, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4079–4099, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4079-2012, 2012. a
Short summary
Land surface models are important tools for translating meteorological forecasts and reanalyses into real-world impacts at the Earth's surface. We show that the hydrological predictions, in particular soil moisture, of these models can be improved by combining them with satellite observations from the NASA SMAP mission to update uncertain parameters. We find a 22 % reduction in error at a network of in situ soil moisture sensors after combining model predictions with satellite observations.
Land surface models are important tools for translating meteorological forecasts and reanalyses...
