Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5559-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5559-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Oct 2018
Research article |
| 26 Oct 2018
| 26 Oct 2018
Evaluating and improving modeled turbulent heat fluxes across the North American Great Lakes
Umarporn Charusombat
NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48108, USA
University of Michigan, Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48108, USA
University of Michigan, Climate & Space Sciences and Engineering Department, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA
Andrew D. Gronewold
NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48108, USA
Brent M. Lofgren
NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48108, USA
Eric J. Anderson
NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48108, USA
Peter D. Blanken
University of Colorado, Department of Geography, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA
Christopher Spence
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 5C5, Canada
John D. Lenters
University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Limnology, Boulder Junction, Wisconsin 54512, USA
Chuliang Xiao
University of Michigan, Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48108, USA
Lindsay E. Fitzpatrick
University of Michigan, Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48108, USA
Gregory Cutrell
LimnoTech, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48108, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Stanley G. Benjamin, Tatiana G. Smirnova, Eric P. James, Eric J. Anderson, Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, John G. W. Kelley, Greg E. Mann, Andrew D. Gronewold, Philip Chu, and Sean G. T. Kelley
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6659–6676, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Application of 1-D lake models coupled within earth-system prediction models will improve accuracy but requires accurate initialization of lake temperatures. Here, we describe a lake initialization method by cycling within a weather prediction model to constrain lake temperature evolution. We compared these lake temperature values with other estimates and found much reduced errors (down to 1-2 K). The lake cycling initialization is now applied to two operational US NOAA weather models.
Christopher Spence, Zhihua He, Kevin R. Shook, Balew A. Mekonnen, John W. Pomeroy, Colin J. Whitfield, and Jared D. Wolfe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1801–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1801-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1801-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We determined how snow and flow in small creeks change with temperature and precipitation in the Canadian Prairie, a region where water resources are often under stress. We tried something new. Every watershed in the region was placed in one of seven groups based on their landscape traits. We selected one of these groups and used its traits to build a model of snow and streamflow. It worked well, and by the 2040s there may be 20 %–40 % less snow and 30 % less streamflow than the 1980s.
Stephanie G. Stettz, Nicholas C. Parazoo, A. Anthony Bloom, Peter D. Blanken, David R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Brett Raczka, Alexander J. Norton, Ian Baker, Mathew Williams, Mingjie Shi, Yongguang Zhang, and Bo Qiu
Biogeosciences, 19, 541–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-541-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty in the response of photosynthesis to temperature poses a major challenge to predicting the response of forests to climate change. In this paper, we study how photosynthesis in a mountainous evergreen forest is limited by temperature. This study highlights that cold temperature is a key factor that controls spring photosynthesis. Including the cold-temperature limitation in an ecosystem model improved its ability to simulate spring photosynthesis.
Chris M. DeBeer, Howard S. Wheater, John W. Pomeroy, Alan G. Barr, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Jill F. Johnstone, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ronald E. Stewart, Masaki Hayashi, Garth van der Kamp, Shawn Marshall, Elizabeth Campbell, Philip Marsh, Sean K. Carey, William L. Quinton, Yanping Li, Saman Razavi, Aaron Berg, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, Christopher Spence, Warren D. Helgason, Andrew M. Ireson, T. Andrew Black, Mohamed Elshamy, Fuad Yassin, Bruce Davison, Allan Howard, Julie M. Thériault, Kevin Shook, Michael N. Demuth, and Alain Pietroniro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1849–1882, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This article examines future changes in land cover and hydrological cycling across the interior of western Canada under climate conditions projected for the 21st century. Key insights into the mechanisms and interactions of Earth system and hydrological process responses are presented, and this understanding is used together with model application to provide a synthesis of future change. This has allowed more scientifically informed projections than have hitherto been available.
Jeffrey M. McKenzie, Barret L. Kurylyk, Michelle A. Walvoord, Victor F. Bense, Daniel Fortier, Christopher Spence, and Christophe Grenier
The Cryosphere, 15, 479–484, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-479-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-479-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater is an underappreciated catalyst of environmental change in a warming Arctic. We provide evidence of how changing groundwater systems underpin surface changes in the north, and we argue for research and inclusion of cryohydrogeology, the study of groundwater in cold regions.
Rui Cheng, Troy S. Magney, Debsunder Dutta, David R. Bowling, Barry A. Logan, Sean P. Burns, Peter D. Blanken, Katja Grossmann, Sophia Lopez, Andrew D. Richardson, Jochen Stutz, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 17, 4523–4544, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4523-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4523-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We measured reflected sunlight from an evergreen canopy for a year to detect changes in pigments that play an important role in regulating the seasonality of photosynthesis. Results show a strong mechanistic link between spectral reflectance features and pigment content, which is validated using a biophysical model. Our results show spectrally where, why, and when spectral features change over the course of the season and show promise for estimating photosynthesis remotely.
Nicholas C. Parazoo, Troy Magney, Alex Norton, Brett Raczka, Cédric Bacour, Fabienne Maignan, Ian Baker, Yongguang Zhang, Bo Qiu, Mingjie Shi, Natasha MacBean, Dave R. Bowling, Sean P. Burns, Peter D. Blanken, Jochen Stutz, Katja Grossmann, and Christian Frankenberg
Biogeosciences, 17, 3733–3755, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3733-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3733-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provide a global measure of photosynthetic change. This enables scientists to better track carbon cycle responses to environmental change and tune biochemical processes in vegetation models for an improved simulation of future change. We use tower-instrumented SIF measurements and controlled model experiments to assess the state of the art in terrestrial biosphere SIF modeling and find a wide range of sensitivities to light.
Jared D. Wolfe, Kevin R. Shook, Chris Spence, and Colin J. Whitfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3945–3967, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3945-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3945-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Watershed classification can identify regions expected to respond similarly to disturbance. Methods should extend beyond hydrology to include other environmental questions, such as ecology and water quality. We developed a classification for the Canadian Prairie and identified seven classes defined by watershed characteristics, including elevation, climate, wetland density, and surficial geology. Results provide a basis for evaluating watershed response to land management and climate condition.
Edward K. P. Bam, Rosa Brannen, Sujata Budhathoki, Andrew M. Ireson, Chris Spence, and Garth van der Kamp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 553–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-553-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-553-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper highlights the data contained in the database for the Prairie research site, St. Denis National Wildlife Research Area, at Saskatchewan, Canada. The database includes atmosphere, snow surveys, pond, soil, groundwater, and water isotopes collected on an intermittent basis between 1968 and 2018. The metadata table provides location information, information about the full range of measurements carried out on each parameter, and GPS locations relevant for interpretation of the data.
Christopher Spence and Newell Hedstrom
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1753–1767, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1753-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1753-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This dataset documents physiographic and hydrometeorological conditions from 2003 to 2016 in the 155 km2 Baker Creek Research Watershed in Canada's Northwest Territories. Half-hourly hydrometeorological data were collected over several land cover types. The dataset includes streamflow, ground temperature, soil moisture, and spring maximum snow depth and water content. These data are unique in this remote region and provide scientific and engineering communities data to advance understanding.
Katheryn Burd, Suzanne E. Tank, Nicole Dion, William L. Quinton, Christopher Spence, Andrew J. Tanentzap, and David Olefeldt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4455–4472, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4455-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4455-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we investigated whether climate change and wildfires are likely to alter water quality of streams in western boreal Canada, a region that contains large permafrost-affected peatlands. We monitored stream discharge and water quality from early snowmelt to fall in two streams, one of which drained a recently burned landscape. Wildfire increased the stream delivery of phosphorous and possibly increased the release of old natural organic matter previously stored in permafrost soils.
José-Luis Guerrero, Patricia Pernica, Howard Wheater, Murray Mackay, and Chris Spence
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6345–6362, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6345-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6345-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes are sentinels of climate change, and an adequate characterization of their feedbacks to the atmosphere could improve climate modeling. These feedbacks, as heat fluxes, can be simulated but are seldom measured, casting doubt on modeling results. Measurements from a small lake in Canada established that the model parameter modulating how much light penetrates the lake dominates model response. This parameter is measurable: improved monitoring could lead to more robust modeling.
Étienne Gaborit, Vincent Fortin, Xiaoyong Xu, Frank Seglenieks, Bryan Tolson, Lauren M. Fry, Tim Hunter, François Anctil, and Andrew D. Gronewold
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4825–4839, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4825-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4825-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The work presents an original methodology for optimizing streamflow simulations with the distributed hydrological model GEM-Hydro.
While minimizing the computational time required for automatic calibration, the approach allows us to end up with a spatially coherent and transferable parameter set. The GEM-Hydro model is useful because it allows simulation of all physical components of the hydrological cycle in every part of a domain.
It proves to be competitive with other distributed models.
Francesc Montané, Andrew M. Fox, Avelino F. Arellano, Natasha MacBean, M. Ross Alexander, Alex Dye, Daniel A. Bishop, Valerie Trouet, Flurin Babst, Amy E. Hessl, Neil Pederson, Peter D. Blanken, Gil Bohrer, Christopher M. Gough, Marcy E. Litvak, Kimberly A. Novick, Richard P. Phillips, Jeffrey D. Wood, and David J. P. Moore
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3499–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3499-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3499-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
How carbon is allocated to different plant tissues (leaves, stem, and roots) determines carbon residence time and thus remains a central challenge for understanding the global carbon cycle. In this paper, we compared standard and novel carbon allocation schemes in CLM4.5 and evaluated them using eddy covariance wood and leaf biomass. The dynamic scheme based on work by Litton improved model performance, but this was dependent on model assumptions about woody turnover.
Christopher Spence and Samson Girma Mengistu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-252, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This research summarizes the application of a hydrological model to determine the relationships between streamflow and the area that contributes water to it. The model performed well. Results show that the frequency of streamflow events and with which areas contribute are not necessarily the same. There are implications from this research for determining the sources of water and nutrients available downstream in lakes vulnerable to eutrophication.
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change on the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: A reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely-sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Linking the complementary evaporation relationship with the Budyko framework for ungauged areas in Australia
Risks of seasonal extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer worlds – how anthropogenic aerosols change the story
Pan evaporation is increased by submerged macrophytes
Evaluation of water flux predictive models developed using eddy-covariance observations and machine learning: a meta-analysis
Characterizing basin-scale precipitation gradients in the Third Pole region using a high-resolution atmospheric simulation-based dataset
A comparison of hydrological models with different level of complexity in Alpine regions in the context of climate change
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a thorough historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Amy Charlotte Green, Chris G. Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-26, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well at generating realistic weather radar images visually, for a large range of event types.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-11, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings revealed runoff generation is dominated by rainfall runoff in the YZ, and the largest glacier runoff contribution is in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff trends indicate an increase in the NX but a decrease in the NX-BXK for 1971–2020, due to contrasting precipitation changes. Total runoff across the sub-basins will consistently increase through the 21st century, mostly resulting from increased rainfall runoff.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3040, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flows months in advance is crucial for many water sectors and society. In N. America, snowmelt is a key driver of river flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flows months ahead in N. American snow-fed rivers. Variations in predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future river flow predictability amid a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2041, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely-sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach which is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, and to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212), as well as to remotely-sensed satellite estimates.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Daeha Kim, Minha Choi, and Jong Ahn Chun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5955–5969, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We proposed a practical method that predicts the evaporation rates on land surfaces (ET) where only atmospheric data are available. Using a traditional equation that describes partitioning of precipitation into ET and streamflow, we could approximately identify the key parameter of the predicting formulation based on land–atmosphere interactions. The simple method conditioned by local climates outperformed sophisticated models in reproducing water-balance estimates across Australia.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Brigitta Simon-Gáspár, Gábor Soós, and Angela Anda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4741–4756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Due to climate change, it is extremely important to determine evaporation as accurately as possible. In nature, there are sediments and macrophytes in the open waters; thus, one of the aims was to investigate their effect on evaporation. The second aim of this paper was to estimate daily evaporation by using different models, which, according to results, have high priority in the evaporation prediction. Water management can obtain useful information from the results of the current research.
Haiyang Shi, Geping Luo, Olaf Hellwich, Mingjuan Xie, Chen Zhang, Yu Zhang, Yuangang Wang, Xiuliang Yuan, Xiaofei Ma, Wenqiang Zhang, Alishir Kurban, Philippe De Maeyer, and Tim Van de Voorde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4603–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4603-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There have been many machine learning simulation studies based on eddy-covariance observations for water flux and evapotranspiration. We performed a meta-analysis of such studies to clarify the impact of different algorithms and predictors, etc., on the reported prediction accuracy. It can, to some extent, guide future global water flux modeling studies and help us better understand the terrestrial ecosystem water cycle.
Yaozhi Jiang, Kun Yang, Hua Yang, Hui Lu, Yingying Chen, Xu Zhou, Jing Sun, Yuan Yang, and Yan Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4587–4601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4587-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our study quantified the altitudinal precipitation gradients (PGs) over the Third Pole (TP). Most sub-basins in the TP have positive PGs, and negative PGs are found in the Himalayas, the Hengduan Mountains and the western Kunlun. PGs are positively correlated with wind speed but negatively correlated with relative humidity. In addition, PGs tend to be positive at smaller spatial scales compared to those at larger scales. The findings can assist precipitation interpolation in the data-sparse TP.
Francesca Carletti, Adrien Michel, Francesca Casale, Alice Burri, Daniele Bocchiola, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3447–3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3447-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High Alpine catchments are dominated by the melting of seasonal snow cover and glaciers, whose amount and seasonality are expected to be modified by climate change. This paper compares the performances of different types of models in reproducing discharge among two catchments under present conditions and climate change. Despite many advantages, the use of simpler models for climate change applications is controversial as they do not fully represent the physics of the involved processes.
Cited articles
Anderson, E. J. and Schwab, D. J.: Predicting the oscillating bi-directional
exchange flow in the Straits of Mackinac, J. Great Lakes Res., 39, 663–671,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2013.09.001, 2013.
Anderson, E. J., Bechle, A. J., Wu, C. H., Schwab, D. J., Mann, G. E., and
Lombardy, K. A.: Reconstruction of a meteotsunami in Lake Erie on 27 May 2012;
Roles of atmospheric conditions on hydrodynamic response in enclosed basins,
J. Geophys. Res., 120, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010564, 2015.
Andreas, E. L.: A theory for the scalar roughness and the scalar transfer
coefficients over snow and sea ice, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 38, 159–184,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00121562, 1987.
Bai, X., Wang, J., Schwab, D. J., Yang, Y., Luo, L., Leshkevich, G. A., and
Liu, S.: Modeling 1993–2008 climatology of seasonal general circulation and
thermal structure in the Great Lakes using FVCOM, Ocean Model., 65, 40–63,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.02.003, 2013.
Baldocchi, D., Hicks, B. B., and Meyers, T.: Measuring biosphere–atmosphere
exchanges of biologically related gases with micrometeorological methods,
Ecology, 69, 1331–1340, 1988.
Bélair, S., Brown, R., Mailhot, J., Bilodeau, B., and Crevier, L.-P.:
Operational Implementation of the ISBA Land Surface Scheme in the Canadian
Regional Weather Forecast Model. Part I: Warm Season Results, J. Hydrometeorol.,
4, 352–370, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)4<352:OIOTIL>2.0.CO;2, 2003a.
Bélair, S., Brown, R., Mailhot, J., Bilodeau, B., and Crevier, L.-P.:
Operational Implementation of the ISBA Land Surface Scheme in the Canadian
Regional Weather Forecast Model. Part II: Cold Season Results, J. Hydrometeorol.,
4, 371–386, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)4<371:OIOTIL>2.0.CO;2, 2003b.
Beletsky, D., Schwab, D. J., Roebber, P. J., McCormick, M. J., Miller, G. S.,
and Saylor, J. H.: Modeling wind-driven circulation during the March 1998
sediment resuspension event in Lake Michigan, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3038,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JC001159, 2003.
Beletsky, D., Schwab, D., and McCormick, M.: Modeling the 1998-2003 summer
circulation and thermal structure in Lake Michigan, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
111, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003222, 2006.
Beljaars, A. C. M.: The parametrization of surface fluxes in large-scale models
under free convection, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 255–270, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712152203, 1994.
Beljaars, A. C. M. and Holtslag, A. A. M.: Flux Parameterization over Land
Surfaces for Atmospheric Models, J. Appl. Meteorol., 30, 327–341,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1991)030<0327:FPOLSF>2.0.CO;2, 1991.
Benjamin, S. G., Weygandt, S. S., Brown, J. M., Hu, M., Alexander, C., Smirnova,
T. G., Olson, J. B., James, E., Dowell, D. C., Grell, G. A., Lin, H., Peckham,
S. E., Smith, T. L., Moninger, W. R., Kenyon, J., and Manikin, G. S.: A North
American hourly assimilation and model forecast cycle: The rapid refresh, Mon.
Weather Rev., 144, 1669–1694, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0242.1, 2016.
Blanken, P. D., Black, T. a., Yang, P. C., Neumann, H. H., Nesic, Z., Staebler,
R., den Hartog, G., Novak, M. D., and Lee, X.: Energy balance and canopy
conductance of a boreal aspen forest: Partitioning overstory and understory
components, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 28915, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00193, 1997.
Blanken, P. D., Rouse, W. R., Culf, A. D., Spence, C., Boudreau, L. D., Jasper,
J. N., Kochtubajda, B., Schertzer, W. M., Marsh, P., and Verseghy, D.: Eddy
covariance measurements of evaporation from Great Slave Lake, Northwest
Territories, Canada, Water Resour. Res., 36, 1069–1077, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900338, 2000.
Blanken, P. D., Rouse, W. R., and Schertzer, W.: The Time Scales of Evaporation
from Great Slave Lake, in: Atmospheric Dynamics of a Cold Region: The Mackenzie
GEWEX Study Experience, vol. II: Hydrol., edited by: Woo, M.-K., Springer,
New York, 181–196, 2008.
Blanken, P. D., Spence, C., Hedstrom, N., and Lenters, J. D.: Evaporation from
Lake Superior: 1. Physical controls and processes, J. Great Lakes Res., 37,
707–716, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2011.08.009, 2011.
Bonan, G. B.: Sensitivity of a GCM simulation to inclusion of inland water
surfaces, J. Climate, 8, 2691–2704, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2691:SOAGST>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Brutsaert, W.: A theory for local evaporation (or heat transfer) from rough and
smooth surfaces at ground level, Water Resour. Res., 11, 543–550,
https://doi.org/10.1029/WR011i004p00543, 1975.
Brutsaert, W.: Evaporation into the Atmosphere – Theory, History and
Applications, Springer, the Netherlands, 1982.
Businger, J. A., Wyngaard, J. C., Izumi, Y., and Bradley, E. F.: Flux-Profile
Relationships in the Atmospheric Surface Layer, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 181–189,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0181:FPRITA>2.0.CO;2, 1971.
Charnock, H.: Wind stress on a water surface, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 81,
639–640, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49708135027, 1955.
Chen, C., Beardsley, R. C., and Cowles, G.: An Unstructured Grid, Finite-Volume
Coastal Ocean Model FVCOM User Manual, Oceanography, 19, 78–89, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2006.92, 2006.
Chen, C., Beardsley, R., Cowles, G., Qi, J., Lai, Z., Gao, G., Stuebe, D., Xu,
Q., Xue, P., Ge, J., Hu, S., Chen, C., Beardsley, R., Cowles, G., Qi, J., Lai,
Z., Gao, G., Stuebe, D., Xu, Q., Xue, P., Ge, J., Hu, S., Ji, R., Tian, R.,
Huang, H., Wu, L., Huichan, L., Sun, Y., and Zhao, L.: An unstructured grid,
Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model FVCOM – User Manual, Tech. Rep., SMAST/UMASSD-13-0701,
Sch. Mar. Sci. Technol., Univ. Mass. Dartmouth, New Bedford., 416 pp., 2013.
Chen, F., Janjić, Z., and Mitchell, K.: Impact of Atmospheric Surface-layer
Parameterizations in the new Land-surface Scheme of the NCEP Mesoscale Eta Model,
Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 85, 391–421, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1000531001463, 1997.
Chu, P. Y., Kelley, J. G. W., Mott, G. V., Zhang, A., and Lang, G. A.:
Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes
Operational Forecast System, Ocean Dynam., 61, 1305–1316, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-011-0424-5, 2011.
Clites, A. H., Wang, J., Campbell, K. B., Gronewold, A. D., Assel, R., Bai, X.,
and Leshkevich, G. A.: Cold Water and High Ice Cover on Great Lakes in Spring 2014,
Earth Obs. Syst., 95, 305–312, 2014.
Croley, T. E.: Verifiable evaporation modeling on the Laurentian Great Lakes,
Water Resour. Res., 25, 781–792, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR025i005p00781, 1989a.
Croley, T. E.: Lumped Modeling of Laurentian Great Lakes Evaporation, Heat
Storage, and Energy Fluxes for Forecasting and Simulation, NOAA Tech. Memo.,
ERL GLERL, NOAA, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1–48, 1989b.
Croley, T. E., Assel, R. A., and Arbor, A.: Great Lakes Evaporation Model
Sensitivities and Errors, Second Fed. Interag. Hydrol. Model. Conf. Subcomm.
Hydrol. Interag. Advis. Comm. Water Data, 9, 1–12, 2002.
Deacu, D., Fortin, V., Klyszejko, E., Spence, C., and Blanken, P. D.: Predicting
the net basin supply to the Great Lakes with a hydrometeorological model, J.
Hydrometeorol., 13, 1739–1759, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0151.1, 2012.
Edson, J. B., Hinton, A. A., Prada, K. E., Hare, J. E., and Fairall, C. W.:
Direct covariance flux estimates from mobile platforms at sea, J. Atmos. Ocean.
Tech., 15, 547–562, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(1998)015<0547:DCFEFM>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Edson, J. B., Jampana, V., Weller, R. a., Bigorre, S. P., Plueddemann, A. J.,
Fairall, C. W., Miller, S. D., Mahrt, L., Vickers, D., and Hersbach, H.: On the
Exchange of Momentum over the Open Ocean, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 43, 1589–1610,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-12-0173.1, 2013.
Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Rogers, D. P., Edson, J. B., and Young, G. S.:
Bulk parameterization of air-sea fluxes for Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere
Coupled-Ocean Atmosohere Response Experiment, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 3747–3764, 1996a.
Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Godfrey, J. S., Wick, G. A., Edson, J. B., and
Young, G. S.: Cool-skin and warm-layer effects on sea surface temperature, J.
Geophys. Res., 101, 1295–1308, https://doi.org/10.1029/95JC03190, 1996b.
Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Hare, J. E., Grachev, A. A., and Edson, J. B.:
Bulk parameterization of air-sea fluxes: Updates and verification for the COARE
algorithm, J. Climate, 16, 571–591, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0571:BPOASF>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Fujisaki-Manome, A., Fitzpatrick, L. E., Gronewold, A. D., Anderson, E. J.,
Lofgren, B. M., Spence, C., Chen, J., Shao, C., Wright, D. M., and Xiao, C.:
Turbulent Heat Fluxes during an Extreme Lake Effect Snow Event, J. Hydrometeorol.,
18, 3145–3163, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0062.1, 2017.
FVCOM – Finite Volume Community Ocean Model source codes: http://fvcom.smast.umassd.edu/FVCOM/Source/code.htm,
last access: 1 December 2017.
Garratt, J. R.: The Atmospheric Boundary Layer, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1992.
GLSEA – Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis: https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/glsea/doc/,
last access: 10 January 2018.
Great Lake Evaporation Network: About the Great Lakes Evaporation Network,
https://superiorwatersheds.org/GLEN/, last access: 10 January 2018.
Great Lakes Monthly Hydrologic Data: https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov,
last access: 1 July 2018.
Gronewold, A. D. and Stow, C. A.: Water loss from the Great Lakes, Science,
343, 1084–1085, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1249978, 2014.
Gronewold, A. D., Clites, A. H., Hunter, T. S., and Stow, C. A.: An appraisal
of the Great Lakes advanced hydrologic prediction system, J. Great Lakes Res.,
37, 577–583, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2011.06.010, 2011.
Gronewold, A. D., Fortin, V., Lofgren, B., Clites, A., Stow, C. A., and Quinn,
F.: Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective,
Climatic Change, 120, 697–711, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0840-2, 2013.
Gu, H., Jin, J., Wu, Y., Ek, M. B., and Subin, Z. M.: Calibration and validation
of lake surface temperature simulations with the coupled WRF-lake model,
Climatic Change, 129, 471–483, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0978-y, 2015.
Henderson-Sellers, B.: Calculating the surface energy balance for lake and
reservoir modeling: A review, Rev. Geophys., 24, 625–649, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG024i003p00625, 1986.
Holtslag, A. A. M., De Bruijn, E. I. F., and Pan, H.-L.: A High Resolution Air
Mass Transformation Model for Short-Range Weather Forecasting, Mon. Weather Rev.,
118, 1561–1575, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1990)118<1561:AHRAMT>2.0.CO;2, 1990.
Horst, T. W.: A simple formula for attenuation of eddy fluxes measured with
first-order-response scalar sensors, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 82, 219–233,
https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1000229130034, 1997.
Hostetler, S. W. and Bartlein, P. J.: Simulation of Lake Evaporation with
Application to Modeling Lake Level Variations, Oregon, Water Resour. Res.,
26, 2603–2612, 1990.
Hostetler, S. W., Bates, G. T., and Giorgi, F.: Interactive coupling of a lake
thermal model with a regional climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 5045,
https://doi.org/10.1029/92JD02843, 1993.
Hunke, E. C., Lipscomb, W. H., Turner, A. K., Jeffery, N., and Elliott, S.:
CICE: the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model documentation and software user's manual
LA-CC-06-012, Los Alamos, New Mexico, 1–116, 2015.
Hunter, T. S., Clites, A. H., Campbell, K. B., and Gronewold, A. D.: Development
and application of a North American Great Lakes hydrometeorological database – Part I:
Precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and air temperature, J. Great Lakes Res.,
41, 65–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.12.006, 2015.
Jordan, R. E., Andreas, E. L., and Makshtas, A. P.: Heat budget of snow-covered
sea ice at North Pole 4, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 7785, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JC900011, 1999.
Kantha, L. H. and Clayson, C. A.: Surface exchange processes, in: Small Scale
Processes in Geophysical Fluid Flows, Academic Press, San Diego, California, 417–509, 2000.
Kauffman, B. G. and Large, W. G.: The CCSM coupler, version 5.0.1, Technical
Note, Boulder, CO, USA, available at: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/ccsm2.0.1/cpl5/users_guide.pdf
(last access: 27 May 2017), 2002.
Kraus, E. B. and Businger, J. A.: Atmosphere–Ocean Interaction, 2nd Edn.,
Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1995.
Lambin, J., Morrow, R., L.-L., F., Willis, J. K., Bonekamp, H., Lillibrige, J.,
Perbos, J., Zaouche, G., Vaze, P., Bannoura, W., Parisot, F., Thouvenot, E.,
Coutin-Faye, S., Lindstorm, E., and Mingogno, M.: The OSTM/Jason-2 Mission, Mar.
Geod., 33, 4–25, https://doi.org/10.1080/01490419.2010.491030, 2010.
Large, W. G. and Pond, S.: Open Ocean momentum flux measurements in moderate
to strong winds, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 11, 324–336, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1981)011<0324:OOMFMI>2.0.CO;2, 1981.
Large, W. G., Mcwilliams, J. C., and Doney, S. C.: Oceanic Vertical Mixing – a
Review and a Model with a Nonlocal Boundary-Layer Parameterization, Rev. Geophys.,
32, 363–403, https://doi.org/10.1029/94rg01872, 1994.
Lenters, J. D.: Long-term Trends in the Seasonal Cycle of Great Lakes Water
Levels, J. Great Lakes Res., 27, 342–353, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0380-1330(01)70650-8, 2001.
Lenters, J. D., Anderton, John, B., Blanken, P. D., Spence, C., and Suyker, A.
E.: Great Lakes Evaporation: Implications for Water Levels Assessing the
Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Great Lakes Evaporation:
Implications for water levels and the need for a coordinated observation
network, 2011 Proj. Reports, edited by: Brown, D., Bidwell, D., and Briley,
L., available from Gt. Lakes Integr. Sci. Assessments Cent., Ann Arbor, Michigan, 2013.
Liu, P. C. and Schwab, D. J.: A comparison of methods for estimating u*,
from given uz and air–sea temperature differences, J. Geophys. Res.,
92, 6488–6494, 1987.
Liu, W. T., Katosaros, K. B., and Businger, J. A.: Bulk Parameterization of
Air–Sea Exchanges of Heat and Water Vapor Including the Molecular Constraints
at the Interface, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2798–2800, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<2798:COPOAS>2.0.CO;2, 1980.
Massman, W. J.: A simple method for estimating frequency response corrections
for eddy covariance systems, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 104, 185–198,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00164-7, 2000.
Michalak, A. M., Anderson, E. J., Beletsky, D., Boland, S., Bosch, N. S.,
Bridgeman, T. B., Chaffin, J. D., Cho, K., Confesor, R., Daloglu, I., DePinto,
J. V., Evans, M. A., Fahnenstiel, G. L., He, L., Ho, J. C., Jenkins, L.,
Johengen, T. H., Kuo, K. C., LaPorte, E., Liu, X., McWilliams, M. R., Moore, M.
R., Posselt, D. J., Richards, R. P., Scavia, D., Steiner, A. L., Verhamme, E.,
Wright, D. M., and Zagorski, M. A.: Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie
caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future
conditions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 6448–6452, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1216006110, 2013.
Mitchell, K., Ek, M., Wong, V., Lohmann, D., Koren, V., Schaake, J., Duan, Q.,
Gayno, G., Moore, B., Grunmann, P., Tarpley, D., Ramsay, B., Chen, F., Kim, J.,
Pan, H., Lin, Y., Marshall, C., Mahrt, L., Meyers, T., and Ruscher, P.: Noah
Land Surface Model (LSM) User's Guide, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR),
Research Application Laboratory (RAL), available at: https://ral.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/public/product-tool/unified-noah-lsm/Noah_LSM_USERGUIDE_2.7.1.pdf
(last access: October 2018), 2005.
Moukomla, S. and Blanken, P. D.: Remote sensing of the North American Laurentian
Great Lakes' surface temperature, Remote Sensing, 8, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8040286, 2016.
Moukomla, S. and Blanken, P. D.: The Estimation of the North American Great
Lakes Turbulent Fluxes Using Satellite Remote Sensing and MERRA Reanalysis
Data, Remote Sensing, 9, 141, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9020141, 2017.
Obukhov, A. M.: Turbulence in an atmosphere with a non-uniform temperature,
Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 2, 7–29, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00718085, 1971.
Oleson, K. W., Lawrence, D. M., Bonan, G. B., Drewniak, B., Huang, M., Koven,
C. D., Levis, S., Li, F., Riley, W. J., Subin, Z. M., Swenson, S. C., Thornton,
P. E., Bozbiyik, A., Fisher, R., Heald, C. L., Kluzek, E., Lamarque, J.-F.,
Lawrence, P. J., Leung, L. R., Lipscomb, W., Muszala, S., Ricciuto, D. M.,
Sacks, W., Sun, Y., Tang, J., and Yang, Z.-L.: Technical description of
version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM), NCAR Technical Note:
NCAR/TN-503+STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO,
USA, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RR1W7M, 2013.
Reynolds, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. S., and
Schlax, M. G.: Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface
temperature, J. Climate, 20, 5473–5496, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1, 2007.
Rowe, M. D., Anderson, E. J., Wang, J., and Vanderploeg, H. A.: Modeling the
effect of invasive quagga mussels on the spring phytoplankton bloom in Lake
Michigan, J. Great Lakes Res., 41, 49–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2014.12.018, 2015.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhi, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda, M.
G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A Description of the Advanced
Research WRF Version 3, NCAR Technical Note: NCAR/TN-475+STR, National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 1–113, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6DZ069T, 2008.
Smith, S. D.: Coefficients for Sea Surface Wind Stress, Heat Flux, and Wind
Profiles as a Function of Wind Speed and Temperature, J. Geophys. Res.,
93, 15467–15472, 1988.
Spence, C., Blanken, P. D., Hedstrom, N., Fortin, V., and Wilson, H.: Evaporation
from Lake Superior: 2. Spatial distribution and variability, J. Great Lakes Res.,
37, 717–724, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2011.08.013, 2011.
Spence, C., Blanken, P. D., Lenters, J. D., and Hedstrom, N.: The importance
of spring and autumn atmospheric conditions for the evaporation regime of Lake
Superior, J. Hydrometeorol., 14, 1647–1658, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0170.1, 2013.
Subin, Z. M., Riley, W. J., and Mironov, D.: An improved lake model for climate
simulations: Model structure, evaluation, and sensitivity analyses in CESM1, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 4, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011MS000072, 2012.
Van Cleave, K., Lenters, J. D., Wang, J., and Verhamme, E. M.: A regime shift
in Lake Superior ice cover, evaporation, and water temperature following the
warm El Niño winter of 1997–98, Limnol. Oceanogr., 59, 1889–1898,
https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2014.59.6.1889, 2014.
Wang, J., Hu, H., Schwab, D., Leshkevich, G., Beletsky, D., Hawley, N., and
Clites, A.: Development of the Great Lakes Ice-circulation Model (GLIM):
Application to Lake Erie in 2003–2004, J. Great Lakes Res., 36, 425–436,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2010.04.002, 2010.
Webb, E. K., Pearman, G. I., and Leuning, R.: Correction of flux measurements
for density effects due to heat and water vapour transfer, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol.
Soc., 106, 85–100, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644707, 1980.
WRF-ARW – Weather Research and Forecasting Model source codes: http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/
(last access: 1 December 2017), https://doi.org/10.5065/D6MK6B4K, 2017.
Wright, D. M., Posselt, D. J., and Steiner, A. L.: Sensitivity of lake-effect
snowfall to lake ice vover and temperature in the Great Lakes region, Mon.
Weather Rev., 141, 670–689, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00038.1, 2013.
Xiao, C., Lofgren, B. M., Wang, J., and Chu, P. Y.: Improving the lake scheme
within a coupled WRF-lake model in the Laurentian Great Lakes, J. Adv. Model.
Earth Syst., 8, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000717, 2016.
Xue, P., Schwab, D. J., and Hu, S.: An investigation of the thermal response
tometeorological forcing in a hydrodynamic model of Lake Superior, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 120, 5233–5253, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20224, 2015.
Xue, P., Pal, J. S., Ye, X., Lenters, J. D., Huang, C., and Chu, P. Y.:
Improving the simulation of large lakes in regional climate modeling: Two-way
lake-atmosphere coupling with a 3D hydrodynamic model of the great lakes, J.
Climate, 30, 1605–1627, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0225.1, 2017.
Zeng, X., Zhao, M., and Dickinson, R. E.: Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamic
algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO
data, J. Climate, 11, 2628–2644, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2628:IOBAAF>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Short summary
The authors evaluated several algorithms of heat loss and evaporation simulation by comparing with direct measurements at four offshore flux towers in the North American Great Lakes. The algorithms reproduced the seasonal cycle of heat loss and evaporation reasonably, but some algorithms significantly overestimated them during fall to early winter. This was due to false assumption of roughness length scales for temperature and humidity and was improved by employing a correct parameterization.
The authors evaluated several algorithms of heat loss and evaporation simulation by comparing...
