Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
Research article
03 Aug 2018
Research article |  | 03 Aug 2018

Improvement of model evaluation by incorporating prediction and measurement uncertainty

Lei Chen, Shuang Li, Yucen Zhong, and Zhenyao Shen

Related authors

A comprehensive evaluation of input data-induced uncertainty in nonpoint source pollution modeling
L. Chen, Y. Gong, and Z. Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Upstream to downstream: a multiple-assessment-point approach for targeting non-point-source priority management areas at large watershed scale
L. Chen, Y. Zhong, G. Wei, and Z. Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1265–1272,,, 2014
Effects of ecological factors and human activities on nonpoint source pollution in the upper reach of the Yangtze River and its management strategies
X. W. Ding, Z. Y. Shen, R. M. Liu, L. Chen, and M. Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2014
Manuscript not accepted for further review

Related subject area

Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625,,, 2022
Short summary
Pitfalls and a feasible solution for using KGE as an informal likelihood function in MCMC methods: DREAM(ZS) as an example
Yan Liu, Jaime Fernández-Ortega, Matías Mudarra, and Andreas Hartmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5341–5355,,, 2022
Short summary
Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-sized tropical basin
Silvana Bolaños Chavarría, Micha Werner, Juan Fernando Salazar, and Teresita Betancur Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4323–4344,,, 2022
Short summary
Guidance on evaluating parametric model uncertainty at decision-relevant scales
Jared D. Smith, Laurence Lin, Julianne D. Quinn, and Lawrence E. Band
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2519–2539,,, 2022
Short summary
Quantifying input uncertainty in the calibration of water quality models: reordering errors via the secant method
Xia Wu, Lucy Marshall, and Ashish Sharma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1203–1221,,, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Abbaspour, K. C., Yang, J., Maximov, I., Siber, R., Bogner, K., Mieleitner, J., Zobrist, J., and Srinivasan, R.: Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT, J. Hydrol., 333, 413–430, 2007. 
Chaney, N. W., Herman, J. D., Reed, P. M., and Wood, E. F.: Flood and drought hydrologic monitoring: the role of model parameter uncertainty, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3239–3251,, 2015. 
Chen, L., Shen, Z., Yang, X., Liao, Q., and Yu, S. L.: An Interval-Deviation Approach for hydrology and water quality model evaluation within an uncertainty framework, J. Hydrol., 509, 207–214, 2014. 
Chen, L., Gong, Y., and Shen, Z.: A comprehensive evaluation of input data-induced uncertainty in nonpoint source pollution modeling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 12, 11421–11447,, 2015. 
Cheng, Q., Chen, X., Xu, C., Reinhardt-Imjela, C., and Schulte, A.: Improvement and comparison of likelihood functions for model calibration and parameter uncertainty analysis within a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme, J. Hydrol., 519, 2202–2214, 2014. 
Short summary
In this study, the cumulative distribution function approach (CDFA) and the Monte Carlo approach (MCA) were used to develop two new approaches for model evaluation within an uncertainty framework. These proposed methods could be extended to watershed models to provide a substitution for traditional model evaluations within an uncertainty framework.