Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6379–6399, 2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue: The changing water cycle of the Indo-Gangetic Plain
Research article 15 Dec 2017
Research article | 15 Dec 2017
The atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle over the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins
Rogert Sorí et al.
Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Luis Gimeno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1805–1832,
Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Anita Drumond, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 653–675,
Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Luis Gimeno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1805–1832,
Jian Peng, Simon Dadson, Feyera Hirpa, Ellen Dyer, Thomas Lees, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Chris Funk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 753–769,Short summary
Africa has been severely influenced by intense drought events, which has led to crop failure, food shortages, famine, epidemics and even mass migration. The current study developed a high spatial resolution drought dataset entirely from satellite-based products. The dataset has been comprehensively inter-compared with other drought indicators and may contribute to an improved characterization of drought risk and vulnerability and minimize drought's impact on water and food security in Africa.
Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Santiago Beguería, Fergus Reig, and Borja Latorre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1917–1930,Short summary
A database of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was obtained and made publicly available for Spain covering the 1961–2014 period at a spatial resolution of 1.1 km. Previous to ETo calculation, data of required climate variables were interpolated and validated, and the uncertainty was estimated. Obtained ETo values can be used to calculate irrigation requirements, improve drought studies (our main motivation) and study the impact of climate change, as a positive trend was detected.
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638,Short summary
In order to define a dry period, a threshold for wet days is usually considered to account for measurement errors and evaporation. In the present study, we compare the threshold of 1 mm d−1, the most commonly used threshold, to a time-varying threshold describing evapotranspiration to compare how the risk of extreme dry spells is estimated with both thresholds. Results indicate that considering a fixed threshold can underestimate extreme dry spells during the extended summer.
Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215–1234,Short summary
Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions, and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Iván Noguera, and Mónica García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1189–1213,Short summary
Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain. Here we used a high-resolution remote-sensing dataset spanning the period from 1981 to 2015 to assess the sensitivity of 23 vegetation types to drought across Spain. Results demonstrate that vegetation activity is controlled largely by the interannual variability of drought. Nevertheless, there are some considerable spatio-temporal variations, which can be linked to differences in land cover and aridity conditions.
António P. Ferreira, Raquel Nieto, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 603–627,Short summary
The completeness of global radiosonde humidity observations taken over time is studied based on IGRA data. The study illustrates how the number of long-term time series depends on the required frequency, continuity, and vertical sampling of data, in addition to record length. Furthermore, a dataset with metadata related to IGRA is described. It is hoped that such metadata will help climate and environmental scientists to find the most complete in situ observations meeting their research needs.
Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Miquel Tomás-Burguera, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Yolanda Luna, and Ana Morata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 611–628,Short summary
We mapped – for the first time – the probability of occurrence of drought over Spain, with the overriding aim of improving current drought assessment, management and mitigation measures, and strategies across the region. Spatially, our estimations suggest a higher probability of extreme drought events in southern and central areas of Spain compared to northern and eastern regions. Nevertheless, there are strong differences among drought indices and drought timescales.
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 121–133,Short summary
Ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring. On a daily basis extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons it thus contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to decline, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies.
Iago Algarra, Jorge Eiras-Barca, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Raquel Nieto, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 107–119,Short summary
We analyse moisture transport triggered by the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), a maximum in wind speed fields located within the first kilometre of the US Great Plain's troposphere, through the innovative Eulerian Weather Research and Forecasting Model tracer tool. Much moisture associated with this low-level jet has been found in northern regions located in a vast extension of the continent, highlighting the key role played by the GPLLJ in North America's advective transport of moisture.
Paulina Ordoñez, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Pedro Ribera, David Gallego, Carlos Abraham Ochoa-Moya, and Arturo Ignacio Quintanar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 59–72,Short summary
The identification of moisture sources for a region is of prominent importance regarding the characterization of precipitation. In this work, the moisture sources for the western North American monsoon (WNAM) region are identified; these sources are the Gulf of California, the WNAM itself, eastern Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. We find that rainfall intensity over the WNAM region is related to the amount of moisture transported from the Caribbean Sea and eastern Mexico during the preceding days.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Anita Drumond, Ahmed El Kenawy, Fernando Dominguez-Castro, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, and Marina Peña-Gallardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 915–937,Short summary
We analyzed changes in surface relative humidity (RH) at the global scale from 1979 to 2014 and compared the variability and trends in RH with those in land evapotranspiration and ocean evaporation in moisture source areas across a range of selected regions worldwide. Our results stress that the different hypotheses that may explain the decrease in RH under a global warming scenario could act together to explain recent RH trends.
Patrícia Páscoa, Célia M. Gouveia, Ana C. Russo, Roxana Bojariu, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not accepted
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 611–625,Short summary
We have identified changes in the pattern of moisture transport for precipitation over the Arctic region, the Arctic Ocean, and its 13 main subdomains concurrent with the major sea ice decline that occurred in 2003. The pattern consists of a general decrease in moisture transport in summer and enhanced moisture transport in autumn and early winter, with different contributions depending on the moisture source and ocean subregion.
Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Anita Drumond, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 653–675,
Ana María Durán-Quesada, Luis Gimeno, and Jorge Amador
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 147–161,Short summary
This work aims to leverage the understanding of precipitation distribution with a long-term analysis of moisture transport from oceanic and continental sources and its relevance for regional precipitation features, variability and trends. Combining reanalysis, model output, in situ observations and satellite products we provide a robust survey that is useful for, for example, modelling, water resource management, flood and drought monitoring, rain-linked disease spread and ecosystem studies.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, Ahmed El Kenawy, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, and Miquel Tomas-Burguera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3393–3410,Short summary
In this work we analyse the recent evolution and meteorological drivers of the atmospheric evaporative demand in the Canary Islands. We found that the reference evapotranspiration increased by 18.2 mm decade−1 – on average – between 1961 and 2013, with the highest increase recorded during summer. This increase was mainly driven by changes in the aerodynamic component, caused by a statistically significant reduction of the relative humidity.
Anita Drumond, Erica Taboada, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 549–558,Short summary
A Lagrangian approach was used to identify the moisture sources for fourteen ice-core sites located worldwide for the present climate. The approach computed budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along 10-day backward trajectories. The results indicate that the oceanic regions around the subtropical high-pressure centers provide most of moisture, and their contribution varies throughout the year following the annual cycles of the centers.
Alexandre M. Ramos, Raquel Nieto, Ricardo Tomé, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and David A. Lavers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 371–384,Short summary
An atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin, allowing the identification of the major ARs that affected western European coasts between 1979 and 2014. A Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main sources of moisture of the ARs that reach western European coasts. Results confirm not only the advection of moisture linked to ARs from subtropical ocean areas but also the existence of a tropical one.
Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Jesús Revuelto, Ibai Rico, Javier Chueca-Cía, Asunción Julián, Alfredo Serreta, Enrique Serrano, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Esteban Alonso-González, and José María García-Ruiz
The Cryosphere, 10, 681–694,Short summary
This paper analyzes the evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier, Spanish Pyrenees, since 1981. Changes in ice volume were estimated by geodetic methods and terrestrial laser scanning. An acceleration in ice thinning is detected during the 21st century. Local climatic changes observed during the study period do not seem sufficient to explain the acceleration. The strong disequilibrium between the glacier and the current climate and feedback mechanisms seems to be the most plausible explanation.
L. Gimeno, M. Vázquez, R. Nieto, and R. M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 583–589,Short summary
There appears to be a connection between two climate change indicators: an increase in evaporation over source regions and Arctic ice melting.
J. Revuelto, J. I. López-Moreno, C. Azorin-Molina, and S. M. Vicente-Serrano
The Cryosphere, 8, 1989–2006,
A. Drumond, J. Marengo, T. Ambrizzi, R. Nieto, L. Moreira, and L. Gimeno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2577–2598,
E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Zabalza, K. Rahman, A. Gago-Silva, J. I. López-Moreno, S. Vicente-Serrano, A. Lehmann, C. L. Tague, and M. Beniston
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further review
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, E. Morán-Tejeda, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, and J. I. López-Moreno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 119–134,
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approachesEvaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwavesA two-stage blending approach for merging multiple satellite precipitation estimates and rain gauge observations: an experiment in the northeastern Tibetan PlateauIdentifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality settingDeveloping a hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system for South and Southeast Asian river basinsSimulation analysis of local land atmosphere coupling in rainy season over a typical underlying surface in the Tibetan PlateauIntensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warmingLast-decade progress in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the Tibetan PlateauOn the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchmentAccelerated hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region induces more streamflow extremes at different global warming levelsContrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010Technical note: Precipitation-phase partitioning at landscape scales to regional scalesData assimilation for continuous global assessment of severe conditions over terrestrial surfacesA coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modeling system with variable grid sizes for rainfall–runoff simulation in semi-humid and semi-arid watersheds: how does the coupling scale affects the results?Assessment and projection of the water budget over western Canada using convection-permitting weather research and forecasting simulationsClimate-dependent propagation of precipitation uncertainty into the water cycleA meteorological–hydrological regional ensemble forecast for an early-warning system over small Apennine catchments in Central ItalyBias in dynamically downscaled rainfall characteristics for hydroclimatic projectionsImpact of downscaled rainfall biases on projected runoff changesComparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputsUncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing methodHigh-resolution fully coupled atmospheric–hydrological modeling: a cross-compartment regional water and energy cycle evaluationTracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture and associated uncertaintiesAssessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basinsRevisiting extreme precipitation amounts over southern South America and implications for the Patagonian IcefieldsInfluence of multidecadal variability on high and low flows: the case of the Seine basinTechnical Note: Evaluation of the skill in monthly-to-seasonal soil moisture forecasting based on SMAP satellite observations over the southeastern USComparison of probabilistic post-processing approaches for improving numerical weather prediction-based daily and weekly reference evapotranspiration forecastsThe impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over complex mountainous terrainMultimodel simulation of vertical gas transfer in a temperate lakeDual state/rainfall correction via soil moisture assimilation for improved streamflow simulation: evaluation of a large-scale implementation with Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite dataThe AquiFR hydrometeorological modelling platform as a tool for improving groundwater resource monitoring over France: evaluation over a 60-year periodImpact of revegetation of the Loess Plateau of China on the regional growing season water balanceAn ensemble square root filter for the joint assimilation of surface soil moisture and leaf area index within the Land Data Assimilation System LDAS-Monde: application over the Euro-Mediterranean regionImpact of high-resolution sea surface temperature representation on the forecast of small Mediterranean catchments' hydrological responses to heavy precipitationTemporal rainfall disaggregation using a micro-canonical cascade model: possibilities to improve the autocorrelationHybrid climate datasets from a climate data evaluation system and their impacts on hydrologic simulations for the Athabasca River basin in CanadaEvaluation of drought representation and propagation in regional climate model simulations across SpainGroundwater influence on soil moisture memory and land–atmosphere fluxes in the Iberian PeninsulaComparison of approaches to interpolating climate observations in steep terrain with low-density gauging networksHigh-resolution regional climate modeling and projection over western Canada using a weather research forecasting model with a pseudo-global warming approachRole of sublimation and riming in the precipitation distribution in the Kananaskis Valley, Alberta, CanadaLocal and remote moisture sources for extreme precipitation: a study of the two catastrophic 1982 western Mediterranean episodesUsing the maximum entropy production approach to integrate energy budget modelling in a hydrological modelUsing nowcasting technique and data assimilation in a meteorological model to improve very short range hydrological forecastsPrecipitation transition regions over the southern Canadian Cordillera during January–April 2010 and under a pseudo-global-warming assumptionSummary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 1: Projected climate and meteorologyPotential application of hydrological ensemble prediction in forecasting floods and its components over the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, ChinaSpatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901–2016Assessing the performance of global hydrological models for capturing peak river flows in the Amazon basinInfluences of Lake Malawi on the spatial and diurnal variability of local precipitation
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Teresa E. Gimeno, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dani Or, Jinyan Yang, and David S. Ellsworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 447–471,Short summary
Land surface model (LSM) is a critical tool to study land responses to droughts and heatwaves, but lacking comprehensive observations limited past model evaluations. Here we use a novel dataset at a water-limited site, evaluate a typical LSM with a range of competing model hypotheses widely used in LSMs and identify marked uncertainty due to the differing process assumptions. We show the extensive observations constrain model processes and allow better simulated land responses to these extremes.
Yingzhao Ma, Xun Sun, Haonan Chen, Yang Hong, and Yinsheng Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 359–374,Short summary
A two-stage blending approach is proposed for the data fusion of multiple satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs), which firstly reduces the systematic errors of original SPEs based on a Bayesian correction model and then merges the bias-corrected SPEs with a Bayesian weighting model. The model is evaluated in the warm season of 2010–2014 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Results show that the blended SPE is greatly improved compared with the original SPEs, even in heavy rainfall events.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290,Short summary
European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Yifan Zhou, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Sujay V. Kumar, Kristi R. Arsenault, Mir A. Matin, Faisal M. Qamer, Ryan A. Zamora, and Kiran Shakya
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–61,Short summary
South and Southeast Asia face significant food insecurity and hydrological hazards. Here we introduce a South and Southeast Asia hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S) to help local governments and decision-makers prepare for extreme hydroclimatic events. The monitoring system captures soil moisture variability well in most regions, and the forecasting system offers skillful prediction of soil moisture variability 2–3 months in advance, on average.
Genhou Sun, Zeyong Hu, Yaoming Ma, Zhipeng Xie, Jiemin Wang, and Song Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5937–5951,Short summary
We investigate the influence of soil conditions on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) thermodynamics and convective cloud formations over a typical underlying surface, based on a series of simulations on a sunny day in the Tibetan Plateau, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The real-case simulation and sensitivity simulations indicate that the soil moisture could have a strong impact on PBL thermodynamics, which may be favorable for the convective cloud formations.
Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5799–5820,Short summary
We examine changes in hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming. Our results indicate consistent changes in temperature extremes and high precipitation (and maximum runoff) extremes across Asia. Extra 0.5 °C warming will lead to enhanced regional hydroclimatic extremes, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. However, hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and types of extreme variables.
Hui Lu, Donghai Zheng, Kun Yang, and Fan Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5745–5758,Short summary
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the Asian water tower, plays an important role in the regional climate system, while the land surface process is a key component through which the TP impacts the water and energy cycles. In this paper, we reviewed the progress achieved in the last decade in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the TP. Based on this review, perspectives on the further improvement of land surface modelling on the TP are also provided.
Maxime Jay-Allemand, Pierre Javelle, Igor Gejadze, Patrick Arnaud, Pierre-Olivier Malaterre, Jean-Alain Fine, and Didier Organde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5519–5538,Short summary
This study contributes to flash flood prediction using a hydrological model. The model describes the spatial properties of the watersheds with hundreds of unknown parameters. The Gardon d'Anduze watershed is chosen as the study benchmark. A sophisticated numerical algorithm and the downstream discharge measurements make the identification of the model parameters possible. Results provide better model predictions and relevant spatial variability of some parameters inside this watershed.
Peng Ji, Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, and Ming Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5439–5451,Short summary
By performing high-resolution land surface modeling driven by the latest CMIP6 climate models, we find both the dry streamflow extreme over the drought-prone Yellow River headwater and the wet streamflow extreme over the flood-prone Yangtze River headwater will increase under 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C global warming levels and emphasize the importance of considering ecological changes (i.e., vegetation greening and CO2 physiological forcing) in the hydrological projection.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377,Short summary
The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Elissa Lynn, Aaron Cuthbertson, Minxue He, Jordi P. Vasquez, Michael L. Anderson, Peter Coombe, John T. Abatzoglou, and Benjamin J. Hatchett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5317–5328,Short summary
Precipitation partitioning across western US landscapes (1948–present) is estimated by combining gridded precipitation data with freezing level and precipitation data from an atmospheric reanalysis. Spatial patterns and trends in the precipitation phase over elevational and latitudinal gradients are examined. The largest increases in precipitation falling as rain occur during spring. This technique can be used as a diagnostic indicator to inform adaptive water management strategy development.
Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, Bertrand Bonan, Emanuel Dutra, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Simon Munier, Clara Draper, Patricia de Rosnay, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Gianpaolo Balsamo, David Fairbairn, Catherine Meurey, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4291–4316,Short summary
LDAS-Monde is a global offline land data assimilation system (LDAS) that jointly assimilates satellite-derived observations of surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) into the ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM). This study demonstrates that LDAS-Monde is able to detect, monitor and forecast the impact of extreme weather on land surface states.
Jiyang Tian, Jia Liu, Yang Wang, Wei Wang, Chuanzhe Li, and Chunqi Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3933–3949,Short summary
The aim of this study is to explore the appropriate coupling scale of the coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modeling system, which is established by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the gridded Hebei model with different sizes. The results show that the flood simulation results may not always be improved with higher-dimension precision and a more complicated system, and the grid size selection has a strong relationship with the rainfall evenness.
Sopan Kurkute, Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li, and Fei Huo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3677–3697,Short summary
Our research has analyzed the surface water budget and atmospheric water vapour budget over western Canada from a set of convection-permitting regional climate simulations. The pseudo-global-warming simulation shows a great increase in evapotranspiration and an enhanced water cycle. We found that the orographic effect on the water vapour budget is significant over the Saskatchewan River basin, indicating the need for high-resolution regional climate modelling to reflect the effects.
Ali Fallah, Sungmin O, and Rene Orth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3725–3735,Short summary
We find that simulated runoff values are highly dependent on the accuracy of precipitation inputs. In contrast, simulated evapotranspiration is generally much less influenced in our comparatively wet study region. We also find that the impact of precipitation uncertainty on simulated runoff increases towards wetter regions, while the opposite is observed in the case of evapotranspiration.
Rossella Ferretti, Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Valentina Colaiuda, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Ida Maiello, Marco Verdecchia, and Gianluca Redaelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3135–3156,Short summary
Floods and severe rainfall are among the major natural hazards in the Mediterranean basin. Though precipitation weather forecasts have improved considerably, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can deteriorate the hydrological forecast. To improve hydrological forecasting, a regional-scale meteorological–hydrological ensemble is presented. This allows for predicting potential severe events days in advance and for characterizing the uncertainty of the hydrological forecast.
Nicholas J. Potter, Francis H. S. Chiew, Stephen P. Charles, Guobin Fu, Hongxing Zheng, and Lu Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2963–2979,Short summary
There is a growing need for information about possible changes to water resource availability in the future due to climate change. Large-scale outputs from global climate models need to be translated to finer-resolution spatial scales before hydrological modelling. Biases in this downscaled data often need to be corrected. We show that usual bias correction methods can retain residual biases in multi-day occurrences of rainfall, which can result in biases in modelled runoff.
Stephen P. Charles, Francis H. S. Chiew, Nicholas J. Potter, Hongxing Zheng, Guobin Fu, and Lu Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2981–2997,Short summary
This paper assesses the suitability of bias-corrected (BC) WRF daily rainfall across the state of Victoria, Australia, for input to hydrological models to determine plausible climate change impacts on runoff. It compares rainfall and runoff changes using BC WRF with those obtained from empirical scaling (ES) using raw WRF changes. It concludes that BC-derived changes are more plausible than ES-derived changes but that remaining biases in BC WRF daily data add uncertainty to runoff projections.
Yuting Yang, Shulei Zhang, Michael L. Roderick, Tim R. McVicar, Dawen Yang, Wenbin Liu, and Xiaoyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2921–2930,Short summary
Many previous studies using offline drought indices report that future warming will increase worldwide drought. However, this contradicts observations/projections of vegetation greening and increased runoff. We resolved this paradox by re-calculating the same drought indices using direct climate model outputs and find no increase in future drought as the climate warms. We also find that accounting for the impact of CO2 on plant transpiration avoids the previous overestimation of drought.
Els Van Uytven, Jan De Niel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2671–2686,Short summary
In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs. Each statistical downscaling method has strengths and limitations, but those are rarely evaluated. This paper illustrates an approach to evaluating the skill of statistical downscaling methods for the specific purpose of impact analysis in hydrology.
Benjamin Fersch, Alfonso Senatore, Bianca Adler, Joël Arnault, Matthias Mauder, Katrin Schneider, Ingo Völksch, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2457–2481,
Obbe A. Tuinenburg and Arie Staal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2419–2435,Short summary
Several models exist to track water through the atmosphere from its evaporation location to the next rain location. These models are typically driven by atmospheric wind and humidity data. Recently, a new version of these driving data sets has become available, with a higher spatial resolution of about 25 km. Here, we test the assumptions of these atmospheric moisture tracking models, given the high-resolution forcing data and find that the vertical mixing assumptions are the most important.
Vincent Vionnet, Vincent Fortin, Etienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Maria Abrahamowicz, Nicolas Gasset, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2141–2165,Short summary
The 2013 Alberta flood in Canada was typical of late-spring floods in mountain basins combining intense precipitation with rapid melting of late-lying snowpack. Hydrological simulations of this event are mainly influenced by (i) the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing due to the best estimate of precipitation at the kilometer scale and changes in turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt and (ii) uncertainties in initial snow conditions at high elevations. Soil texture has less impact.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2016,Short summary
Patagonia is thought to be one of the wettest – if not the wettest – places on Earth. The plausibility of these numbers has never been carefully scrutinized, despite the significance of this topic to our understanding of observed environmental changes, such as glacier recession. The revised precipitation values are significantly smaller than the previously reported values, thus opening up a new perspective on the Patagonian glaciers' response to climate change.
Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, and Florence Habets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1611–1631,Short summary
In this paper, the multidecadal variations of the Seine basin since the 1850s are investigated, based on a new hydrometeorological reconstruction derived from hydrological modeling. The hydrological and climatic mechanisms underlying these variations are highlighted. The analysis of the hydrometeorological reconstruction shows that high and low flows are influenced by these multidecadal hydroclimate variations.
Amirhossein Mazrooei, Arumugam Sankarasubramanian, and Venkat Lakshmi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1073–1079,Short summary
Reliable forecasts of soil moisture conditions help water-related sectors to better prepare for drought and flooding events. This paper describes an approach in which monthly-to-seasonal soil moisture forecasts are developed and compared to remotely sensed observations from SMAP satellite. Our results reveal a promising skill in forecasting long-range soil moisture conditions, suggesting its great potential for real-time and practical applications.
Hanoi Medina and Di Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1011–1030,Short summary
Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) forecasts play an important role in agricultural, environmental, and water management. This study evaluated probabilistic post-processing approaches for improving daily and weekly ensemble ET0 forecasting based on single or multiple numerical weather predictions. The three approaches used consistently improved the skill and reliability of the ET0 forecasts compared with the conventional method, due to the adjustment in the spread of the ensemble forecast.
Lu Li, Marie Pontoppidan, Stefan Sobolowski, and Alfonso Senatore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 771–791,Short summary
We assessed the impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over mountainous terrain. The calibrated convection-permitting model performs better than the simpler conceptual model. Discharge is slightly more sensitive to spin-up time than precipitation due to the influence of soil moisture. A maximum of 0.5 m of snow is converted to runoff irrespective of the initial snow depth, and this snowmelt contributes to discharge mostly during peak flow period.
Sofya Guseva, Tobias Bleninger, Klaus Jöhnk, Bruna Arcie Polli, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, Qianlai Zhuang, James Anthony Rusak, Huaxia Yao, Andreas Lorke, and Victor Stepanenko
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 697–715,Short summary
We compare lake models with different complexity focusing on the key factors (e.g., eddy diffusivity) which can have an influence on the distribution of the dissolved gases in water. For the first time, we compare the biogeochemical modules in the ALBM and LAKE models. The result showed a good agreement with observed data (O2), but not for CO2. It indicates the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models.
Yixin Mao, Wade T. Crow, and Bart Nijssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 615–631,Short summary
The new generation of satellite soil moisture observations are used to correct the streamflow in a regional-scale river basin simulated by a mathematical model. The correction is done via both the direct updating of soil moisture and correction of rainfall input. Results show some streamflow improvement, but the magnitude is small. A larger improvement will need future generations of even higher-quality satellite soil moisture data and better process representation in the mathematical model.
Jean-Pierre Vergnes, Nicolas Roux, Florence Habets, Philippe Ackerer, Nadia Amraoui, François Besson, Yvan Caballero, Quentin Courtois, Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy, Pierre Etchevers, Nicolas Gallois, Delphine J. Leroux, Laurent Longuevergne, Patrick Le Moigne, Thierry Morel, Simon Munier, Fabienne Regimbeau, Dominique Thiéry, and Pascal Viennot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 633–654,Short summary
The AquiFR hydrogeological modelling platform aims to provide short-term-to-seasonal hydrological forecasts over France for daily water management and long-term simulations for climate impact studies. The results described in this study confirm the feasibility of gathering independent groundwater models into the same numerical tool. This new tool encourages the development of groundwater modelling, and it has the potential to be valuable for many operational and research applications.
Jun Ge, Andrew J. Pitman, Weidong Guo, Beilei Zan, and Congbin Fu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 515–533,Short summary
We investigate the impact of revegetation on the hydrology of the Loess Plateau based on high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We find that past revegetation has caused decreased runoff and soil moisture with increased evapotranspiration as well as little response from rainfall. WRF suggests that further revegetation could aggravate this water imbalance. We caution that further revegetation might be unsustainable in this region.
Bertrand Bonan, Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, Alina Lavinia Barbu, David Fairbairn, Simon Munier, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 325–347,Short summary
This paper introduces an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter, for jointly assimilating observations of the surface soil moisture and leaf area index in the Land Data Assimilation System LDAS-Monde. LDAS-Monde constrains the Interaction between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model to improve the reanalysis of land surface variables. EnSRF is compared with the simplified extended Kalman filter over the European Mediterranean region.
Alfonso Senatore, Luca Furnari, and Giuseppe Mendicino
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 269–291,Short summary
This paper addresses the question of how different resolutions of sea surface temperature (SST) representation affect regional operational hydro-meteorological forecasting chains over coastal Mediterranean catchments by analysing two different severe events that affected southern Italy in 2015. Even if the benefits of high-resolution SST representation are hidden by other sources of uncertainty, the experiments highlight that the impact is non-negligible in most cases.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 169–188,Short summary
Simulation of highly dynamic floods requires high-resolution rainfall time series. Observed time series of that kind are often too short; rainfall generation is the only solution. The applied rainfall generator tends to underestimate the process memory of the rainfall. By modifications of the rainfall generator and a subsequent optimisation method the process memory is improved significantly. Flood simulations are expected to be more trustable using the rainfall time series generated like this.
Hyung-Il Eum and Anil Gupta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5151–5173,Short summary
As numerous high-resolution historical gridded climate datasets are available in Alberta, many previous works have simply combined multiple climate datasets without pre-assessment, which may cause unreliable outputs. This study suggested a systematic climate data evaluation system and generated a new performance-based climate dataset. This study proved that the new dataset is a better representation of historical climate conditions, enhancing hydrologic simulations.
Anaïs Barella-Ortiz and Pere Quintana-Seguí
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5111–5131,Short summary
Drought is an important climatic risk. This study analyses drought representation and propagation by regional climate models from Med-CORDEX simulations using standardized indices. Results show that these models improve meteorological drought representation, but uncertainties are identified in its propagation and the way soil moisture and hydrological droughts are characterized. These are mainly due to model structure, making further improvements in land surface modelling necessary.
Alberto Martínez-de la Torre and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4909–4932,Short summary
Over semi-arid regions, it is essential to have a correct representation of the groundwater processes in climate modelling. We present a land surface and groundwater model that incorporates groundwater–soil interactions, groundwater–rivers flow and lateral transport at the subsurface. We study the groundwater influence on soil moisture distribution and memory, and on evapotranspiration in the Iberian Peninsula. Shallow water table regions persist and provide water to the surface during droughts.
Juan Ossa-Moreno, Greg Keir, Neil McIntyre, Michela Cameletti, and Diego Rivera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4763–4781,Short summary
Water management in mountains is challenging when there are no climate data of good quality. This can be addressed by using statistical methods or by including alternative sources of information. This project tests a relatively complex statistical method and compares it with simpler alternatives while including satellite data. It was found that the simple alternative may behave as well as the complex one, and how good the alternative sources of information are could also be established.
Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li, Zhe Zhang, Liang Chen, Sopan Kurkute, Lucia Scaff, and Xicai Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4635–4659,Short summary
High-resolution regional climate modeling that resolves convection was conducted over western Canada for the current climate and a high-end greenhouse gas emission scenario by 2100. The simulation demonstrates its good quality in capturing the temporal and spatial variation in the major hydrometeorological variables. The warming is stronger in the northeastern domain in the cold seasons. It also shows a larger increase in high-intensity precipitation events than moderate and light ones by 2100.
Émilie Poirier, Julie M. Thériault, and Maud Leriche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4097–4111,Short summary
The impact of phase changes aloft on the precipitation distribution in the Kananaskis Valley, Alberta, was studied. The model reproduces well the atmospheric conditions and precipitation pattern. In this region, sublimation has a greater impact on the evolution of the precipitation than melting. The trajectories of hydrometeors explain the precipitation distribution in the valley, which can impact snowpacks. The amount of snow at the surface also depends on the strength of the downslope flow.
Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and María Carmen Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3900,Short summary
Here, we study the main moisture sources of the two famous western Mediterranean flood events of autumn 1982 (October and November). Results confirm the hypothesis that a large amount of precipitable water was involved, which was to a great extent advected from the tropics and subtropics. This remote moisture transport occurred at medium levels of the atmosphere via moisture plumes or atmospheric rivers. During the October event the contribution of local sources was also important.
Audrey Maheu, Islem Hajji, François Anctil, Daniel F. Nadeau, and René Therrien
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3843–3863,Short summary
We tested a new method to simulate terrestrial evaporation in a hydrological model. Given physical constraints imposed by this model, it should help avoid the overestimation of terrestrial evaporation in climate change assessments. We show the good performance of the model by comparing simulated terrestrial evaporation to observations at three sites with different climates and vegetation. Overall, this research proposes a method that will improve our ability to make streamflow projections.
Maria Laura Poletti, Francesco Silvestro, Silvio Davolio, Flavio Pignone, and Nicola Rebora
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3841,Short summary
In this work a probabilistic rainfall nowcasting model, a non-hydrostatic high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model corrected with data assimilation, and a distributed hydrological model are used together with radar observations to implement a hydrological nowcasting chain. This chain is used to obtain a useful discharge prediction in small catchments with a time horizon of 2–8 h.
Juris D. Almonte and Ronald E. Stewart
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3665–3682,
Ronald E. Stewart, Kit K. Szeto, Barrie R. Bonsal, John M. Hanesiak, Bohdan Kochtubajda, Yanping Li, Julie M. Thériault, Chris M. DeBeer, Benita Y. Tam, Zhenhua Li, Zhuo Liu, Jennifer A. Bruneau, Patrick Duplessis, Sébastien Marinier, and Dominic Matte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3437–3455,Short summary
This article examines future atmospheric-related phenomena across the interior of western Canada associated with a
business-as-usualclimate scenario. Changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and extent of warming vary with season, and these generally lead to increases, especially after mid-century, in factors associated with winter snowstorms, freezing rain, drought, forest fires, as well as atmospheric forcing of spring floods, although not necessarily summer convection.
Li Liu, Yue Ping Xu, Su Li Pan, and Zhi Xu Bai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3335–3352,Short summary
The ensemble flood forecasting system can skillfully predict annual maximum floods with a lead time of more than 10 d and has skill in forecasting the snowmelt-related components about 7 d ahead. The accuracy of forecasts for the annual first floods is inferior, with a lead time of only 5 d. The snowmelt-induced surface runoff is the most poorly captured component by the system, and the well-predicted rainfall-related components are the major contributor to good performance.
Kamal Ahmed, Shamsuddin Shahid, Xiaojun Wang, Nadeem Nawaz, and Najeebullah Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3081–3096,Short summary
The long-term changes (1901–2016) in annual and seasonal aridity in Pakistan and its causes are analyzed in this paper. Gauge-based gridded precipitation and PET data are used to show the spatial and temporal patterns of the changes in aridity over the diverse climate of the country. The present study suggests that the relative influence of precipitation and temperature on aridity determines its trends in the context of climate change.
Jamie Towner, Hannah L. Cloke, Ervin Zsoter, Zachary Flamig, Jannis M. Hoch, Juan Bazo, Erin Coughlan de Perez, and Elisabeth M. Stephens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3057–3080,Short summary
This study presents an intercomparison analysis of eight global hydrological models (GHMs), assessing their ability to simulate peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Results indicate that the meteorological input is the most influential component of the hydrological modelling chain, with the recent ERA-5 reanalysis dataset significantly improving the ability to simulate flood peaks in the Peruvian Amazon. In contrast, calibration of the Lisflood routing model was found to have no impact.
Shunya Koseki and Priscilla A. Mooney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2795–2812,Short summary
This study revealed that Lake Malawi plays an important role for local precipitation in terms of spatial distribution and diurnal cycle in boreal summer (November to March). The diurnal cycle is detected by harmonics analysis and empirical orthogonal function analysis. An idealized simulation of WRF without Lake Malawi clearly showed that Lake Malawi is a source of local precipitation.
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