Articles | Volume 21, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5477-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5477-2017
Research article
 | 
07 Nov 2017
Research article |  | 07 Nov 2017

Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

Xing Yuan, Miao Zhang, Linying Wang, and Tian Zhou

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Cited articles

AghaKouchak, A., Feldman, D., Hoerling, M., Huxman, T., and Lund, J.: Water and climate: Recognize anthropogenic drought, Nature, 524, 409–411, https://doi.org/10.1038/524409a, 2015.
Barker, L. J., Hannaford, J., Chiverton, A., and Svensson, C.: From meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, 2016.
Biancamaria, S., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Pavelsky, T. M.: The SWOT mission and its capabilities for land hydrology, Surv. Geophys., 37, 307–337, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-015-9346-y, 2016.
Bloomfield, J. P., Marchant, B. P., Bricker, S. H., and Morgan, R. B.: Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4327–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, 2015.
Dutra, E., Magnusson, L., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., and Pappenberger, F.: The 2010–2011 drought in the Horn of African ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1720–1729, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3545, 2012.
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Short summary
Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges. Human interventions exacerbate hydrological drought conditions and result in earlier drought onset. By considering their effects in the forecast, the probabilistic drought forecast skill increases for both climate-model-based and climatology methods but their difference decreases, suggesting that human interventions can outweigh the climate variability for drought forecasting in the Anthropocene.
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