Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
Research article
13 Jul 2016
Research article |  | 13 Jul 2016

Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

Stephen Oni, Martyn Futter, Jose Ledesma, Claudia Teutschbein, Jim Buttle, and Hjalmar Laudon

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Cited articles

Andréassian, V., Le Moine, N., Perrin, C., Ramos, M. H., Oudin, L., Mathevet, T., Lerat, J., and Berthet, L.: All that glitters is not gold: the case of calibrating hydrological models, Hydrol. Process., 26, 2206–2210, 2012.
Andréassian, V., Bourgin, F., Oudin, L., Mathevet, T., Perrin, C., Lerat, J., Coron, L., and Berthet, L.: Seeking genericity in the selection of parameter sets: Impact on hydrological model efficiency, Water Resour. Res., 50, 8356–8366, 2014.
Bae, D. H., Jung, I. W., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Hydrologic uncertainties in climate change from IPCC AR4 GCM simulations of the Chungju Basin, Korea, J. Hydrol., 401, 90–105, 2011.
Berghuijs, W., Woods, R., and Hrachowitz, M.: A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow, Nature Clim. Change, 4, 583–586, 2014.
Beven, K.: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18–36, 2006.
Short summary
This paper presents an important framework to improve hydrologic projections in cold regions. Hydrologic modelling/projections are often based on model calibration to long-term data. Here we used dry and wet years as a proxy to quantify uncertainty in projecting hydrologic extremes. We showed that projections based on long-term data could underestimate runoff by up to 35% in boreal regions. We believe the hydrologic modelling community will benefit from new insights derived from this study.