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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Abstracted/indexedSpecial issue
Short summary
To date, there is little empirical evidence as to which indicator best represents drought impact occurrence for any given region and/or sector. We therefore exploited text-based data from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) to evaluate drought indicators, empirically determine indicator thresholds, and model drought impacts. A quantitative analysis using Germany and the UK as a testbed proved to be a useful tool for objectively appraising drought indicators.
To date, there is little empirical evidence as to which indicator best represents drought impact...
Articles | Volume 20, issue 7
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2589–2609, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2589-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: HYPER Droughts (HYdrological Precipitation – Evaporation...
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2589–2609, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2589-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 04 Jul 2016
Research article | 04 Jul 2016
A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts
S. Bachmair et al.
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Anne F. Van Loon, Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016
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Veit Blauhut, Kerstin Stahl, James Howard Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Lucia De Stefano, and Jürgen Vogt
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Lucy J. Barker, Jamie Hannaford, Andrew Chiverton, and Cecilia Svensson
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Kerstin Stahl, Irene Kohn, Veit Blauhut, Julia Urquijo, Lucia De Stefano, Vanda Acácio, Susana Dias, James H. Stagge, Lena M. Tallaksen, Eleni Kampragou, Anne F. Van Loon, Lucy J. Barker, Lieke A. Melsen, Carlo Bifulco, Dario Musolino, Alessandro de Carli, Antonio Massarutto, Dionysis Assimacopoulos, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016
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A. K. Fleig, L. M. Tallaksen, P. James, H. Hisdal, and K. Stahl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3093–3107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3093-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3093-2015, 2015
S. Bachmair, I. Kohn, and K. Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1381–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1381-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1381-2015, 2015
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J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
C. K. Folland, J. Hannaford, J. P. Bloomfield, M. Kendon, C. Svensson, B. P. Marchant, J. Prior, and E. Wallace
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2353–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, 2015
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The English Lowlands is a heavily populated, water-stressed region, which is vulnerable to long droughts typically associated with dry winters. We conduct a long-term (1910-present) quantitative analysis of precipitation, flow and groundwater droughts for the region, and then review potential climatic drivers. No single driver is dominant, but we demonstrate a physical link between La Nina conditions, winter rainfall and long droughts in the region.
A. Chiverton, J. Hannaford, I. P. Holman, R. Corstanje, C. Prudhomme, T. M. Hess, and J. P. Bloomfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2395–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, 2015
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Current hydrological change detection methods are subject to a host of limitations. This paper develops a new method, temporally shifting variograms (TSVs), which characterises variability in the river flow regime using several parameters, changes in which can then be attributed to precipitation characteristics. We demonstrate the use of the method through application to 94 UK catchments, showing that periods of extremes as well as more subtle changes can be detected.
D. Freudiger, I. Kohn, K. Stahl, and M. Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2695–2709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2695-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2695-2014, 2014
I. Prosdocimi, T. R. Kjeldsen, and C. Svensson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1125–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1125-2014, 2014
J. Hannaford, G. Buys, K. Stahl, and L. M. Tallaksen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2717–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013, 2013
M. Stoelzle, K. Stahl, and M. Weiler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 817–828, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-817-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-817-2013, 2013
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Hybrid climate datasets from a climate data evaluation system and their impacts on hydrologic simulations for the Athabasca River basin in Canada
Evaluation of drought representation and propagation in regional climate model simulations across Spain
Groundwater influence on soil moisture memory and land–atmosphere fluxes in the Iberian Peninsula
Comparison of approaches to interpolating climate observations in steep terrain with low-density gauging networks
High-resolution regional climate modeling and projection over western Canada using a weather research forecasting model with a pseudo-global warming approach
Role of sublimation and riming in the precipitation distribution in the Kananaskis Valley, Alberta, Canada
Local and remote moisture sources for extreme precipitation: a study of the two catastrophic 1982 western Mediterranean episodes
Using the maximum entropy production approach to integrate energy budget modelling in a hydrological model
Using nowcasting technique and data assimilation in a meteorological model to improve very short range hydrological forecasts
Precipitation transition regions over the southern Canadian Cordillera during January–April 2010 and under a pseudo-global-warming assumption
Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 1: Projected climate and meteorology
Potential application of hydrological ensemble prediction in forecasting floods and its components over the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, China
Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901–2016
Assessing the performance of global hydrological models for capturing peak river flows in the Amazon basin
Influences of Lake Malawi on the spatial and diurnal variability of local precipitation
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
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European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Yifan Zhou, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Sujay V. Kumar, Kristi R. Arsenault, Mir A. Matin, Faisal M. Qamer, Ryan A. Zamora, and Kiran Shakya
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-41-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-41-2021, 2021
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South and Southeast Asia face significant food insecurity and hydrological hazards. Here we introduce a South and Southeast Asia hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S) to help local governments and decision-makers prepare for extreme hydroclimatic events. The monitoring system captures soil moisture variability well in most regions, and the forecasting system offers skillful prediction of soil moisture variability 2–3 months in advance, on average.
Genhou Sun, Zeyong Hu, Yaoming Ma, Zhipeng Xie, Jiemin Wang, and Song Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5937–5951, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, 2020
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We investigate the influence of soil conditions on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) thermodynamics and convective cloud formations over a typical underlying surface, based on a series of simulations on a sunny day in the Tibetan Plateau, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The real-case simulation and sensitivity simulations indicate that the soil moisture could have a strong impact on PBL thermodynamics, which may be favorable for the convective cloud formations.
Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5799–5820, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020, 2020
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We examine changes in hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming. Our results indicate consistent changes in temperature extremes and high precipitation (and maximum runoff) extremes across Asia. Extra 0.5 °C warming will lead to enhanced regional hydroclimatic extremes, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. However, hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and types of extreme variables.
Hui Lu, Donghai Zheng, Kun Yang, and Fan Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5745–5758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5745-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5745-2020, 2020
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The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the Asian water tower, plays an important role in the regional climate system, while the land surface process is a key component through which the TP impacts the water and energy cycles. In this paper, we reviewed the progress achieved in the last decade in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the TP. Based on this review, perspectives on the further improvement of land surface modelling on the TP are also provided.
Maxime Jay-Allemand, Pierre Javelle, Igor Gejadze, Patrick Arnaud, Pierre-Olivier Malaterre, Jean-Alain Fine, and Didier Organde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5519–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, 2020
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This study contributes to flash flood prediction using a hydrological model. The model describes the spatial properties of the watersheds with hundreds of unknown parameters. The Gardon d'Anduze watershed is chosen as the study benchmark. A sophisticated numerical algorithm and the downstream discharge measurements make the identification of the model parameters possible. Results provide better model predictions and relevant spatial variability of some parameters inside this watershed.
Peng Ji, Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, and Ming Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5439–5451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, 2020
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By performing high-resolution land surface modeling driven by the latest CMIP6 climate models, we find both the dry streamflow extreme over the drought-prone Yellow River headwater and the wet streamflow extreme over the flood-prone Yangtze River headwater will increase under 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C global warming levels and emphasize the importance of considering ecological changes (i.e., vegetation greening and CO2 physiological forcing) in the hydrological projection.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
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The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Elissa Lynn, Aaron Cuthbertson, Minxue He, Jordi P. Vasquez, Michael L. Anderson, Peter Coombe, John T. Abatzoglou, and Benjamin J. Hatchett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5317–5328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5317-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5317-2020, 2020
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Precipitation partitioning across western US landscapes (1948–present) is estimated by combining gridded precipitation data with freezing level and precipitation data from an atmospheric reanalysis. Spatial patterns and trends in the precipitation phase over elevational and latitudinal gradients are examined. The largest increases in precipitation falling as rain occur during spring. This technique can be used as a diagnostic indicator to inform adaptive water management strategy development.
Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, Bertrand Bonan, Emanuel Dutra, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Simon Munier, Clara Draper, Patricia de Rosnay, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Gianpaolo Balsamo, David Fairbairn, Catherine Meurey, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4291-2020, 2020
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LDAS-Monde is a global offline land data assimilation system (LDAS) that jointly assimilates satellite-derived observations of surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) into the ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM). This study demonstrates that LDAS-Monde is able to detect, monitor and forecast the impact of extreme weather on land surface states.
Jiyang Tian, Jia Liu, Yang Wang, Wei Wang, Chuanzhe Li, and Chunqi Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3933–3949, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3933-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3933-2020, 2020
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The aim of this study is to explore the appropriate coupling scale of the coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modeling system, which is established by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the gridded Hebei model with different sizes. The results show that the flood simulation results may not always be improved with higher-dimension precision and a more complicated system, and the grid size selection has a strong relationship with the rainfall evenness.
Sopan Kurkute, Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li, and Fei Huo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3677–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3677-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3677-2020, 2020
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Our research has analyzed the surface water budget and atmospheric water vapour budget over western Canada from a set of convection-permitting regional climate simulations. The pseudo-global-warming simulation shows a great increase in evapotranspiration and an enhanced water cycle. We found that the orographic effect on the water vapour budget is significant over the Saskatchewan River basin, indicating the need for high-resolution regional climate modelling to reflect the effects.
Ali Fallah, Sungmin O, and Rene Orth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3725–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3725-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3725-2020, 2020
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We find that simulated runoff values are highly dependent on the accuracy of precipitation inputs. In contrast, simulated evapotranspiration is generally much less influenced in our comparatively wet study region. We also find that the impact of precipitation uncertainty on simulated runoff increases towards wetter regions, while the opposite is observed in the case of evapotranspiration.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Teresa E. Gimeno, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dani Or, Jinyan Yang, and David S. Ellsworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-339, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Land surface model (LSM) is a critical tool to study land responses to droughts and heatwaves, but lacking comprehensive observations limited past model evaluations. Here, we use a novel dataset at a water-limited site, evaluate a typical LSM with a range of competing model hypotheses widely used in LSMs and identify marked uncertainty due to the differing process assumptions. We show the extensive observations constrain model processes and allow better simulate land responses to these extremes.
Rossella Ferretti, Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Valentina Colaiuda, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Ida Maiello, Marco Verdecchia, and Gianluca Redaelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3135–3156, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3135-2020, 2020
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Floods and severe rainfall are among the major natural hazards in the Mediterranean basin. Though precipitation weather forecasts have improved considerably, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can deteriorate the hydrological forecast. To improve hydrological forecasting, a regional-scale meteorological–hydrological ensemble is presented. This allows for predicting potential severe events days in advance and for characterizing the uncertainty of the hydrological forecast.
Nicholas J. Potter, Francis H. S. Chiew, Stephen P. Charles, Guobin Fu, Hongxing Zheng, and Lu Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2963-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2963-2020, 2020
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There is a growing need for information about possible changes to water resource availability in the future due to climate change. Large-scale outputs from global climate models need to be translated to finer-resolution spatial scales before hydrological modelling. Biases in this downscaled data often need to be corrected. We show that usual bias correction methods can retain residual biases in multi-day occurrences of rainfall, which can result in biases in modelled runoff.
Stephen P. Charles, Francis H. S. Chiew, Nicholas J. Potter, Hongxing Zheng, Guobin Fu, and Lu Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2981–2997, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2981-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2981-2020, 2020
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This paper assesses the suitability of bias-corrected (BC) WRF daily rainfall across the state of Victoria, Australia, for input to hydrological models to determine plausible climate change impacts on runoff. It compares rainfall and runoff changes using BC WRF with those obtained from empirical scaling (ES) using raw WRF changes. It concludes that BC-derived changes are more plausible than ES-derived changes but that remaining biases in BC WRF daily data add uncertainty to runoff projections.
Yuting Yang, Shulei Zhang, Michael L. Roderick, Tim R. McVicar, Dawen Yang, Wenbin Liu, and Xiaoyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2921–2930, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020, 2020
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Many previous studies using offline drought indices report that future warming will increase worldwide drought. However, this contradicts observations/projections of vegetation greening and increased runoff. We resolved this paradox by re-calculating the same drought indices using direct climate model outputs and find no increase in future drought as the climate warms. We also find that accounting for the impact of CO2 on plant transpiration avoids the previous overestimation of drought.
Els Van Uytven, Jan De Niel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2671–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, 2020
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In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs. Each statistical downscaling method has strengths and limitations, but those are rarely evaluated. This paper illustrates an approach to evaluating the skill of statistical downscaling methods for the specific purpose of impact analysis in hydrology.
Benjamin Fersch, Alfonso Senatore, Bianca Adler, Joël Arnault, Matthias Mauder, Katrin Schneider, Ingo Völksch, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2457–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2457-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2457-2020, 2020
Obbe A. Tuinenburg and Arie Staal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2419–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2419-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2419-2020, 2020
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Several models exist to track water through the atmosphere from its evaporation location to the next rain location. These models are typically driven by atmospheric wind and humidity data. Recently, a new version of these driving data sets has become available, with a higher spatial resolution of about 25 km. Here, we test the assumptions of these atmospheric moisture tracking models, given the high-resolution forcing data and find that the vertical mixing assumptions are the most important.
Vincent Vionnet, Vincent Fortin, Etienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Maria Abrahamowicz, Nicolas Gasset, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2141–2165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2141-2020, 2020
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The 2013 Alberta flood in Canada was typical of late-spring floods in mountain basins combining intense precipitation with rapid melting of late-lying snowpack. Hydrological simulations of this event are mainly influenced by (i) the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing due to the best estimate of precipitation at the kilometer scale and changes in turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt and (ii) uncertainties in initial snow conditions at high elevations. Soil texture has less impact.
Tobias Sauter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2003-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2003-2020, 2020
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Patagonia is thought to be one of the wettest – if not the wettest – places on Earth. The plausibility of these numbers has never been carefully scrutinized, despite the significance of this topic to our understanding of observed environmental changes, such as glacier recession. The revised precipitation values are significantly smaller than the previously reported values, thus opening up a new perspective on the Patagonian glaciers' response to climate change.
Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, and Florence Habets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1611–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1611-2020, 2020
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In this paper, the multidecadal variations of the Seine basin since the 1850s are investigated, based on a new hydrometeorological reconstruction derived from hydrological modeling. The hydrological and climatic mechanisms underlying these variations are highlighted. The analysis of the hydrometeorological reconstruction shows that high and low flows are influenced by these multidecadal hydroclimate variations.
Amirhossein Mazrooei, Arumugam Sankarasubramanian, and Venkat Lakshmi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1073–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1073-2020, 2020
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Reliable forecasts of soil moisture conditions help water-related sectors to better prepare for drought and flooding events. This paper describes an approach in which monthly-to-seasonal soil moisture forecasts are developed and compared to remotely sensed observations from SMAP satellite. Our results reveal a promising skill in forecasting long-range soil moisture conditions, suggesting its great potential for real-time and practical applications.
Hanoi Medina and Di Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1011–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1011-2020, 2020
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Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) forecasts play an important role in agricultural, environmental, and water management. This study evaluated probabilistic post-processing approaches for improving daily and weekly ensemble ET0 forecasting based on single or multiple numerical weather predictions. The three approaches used consistently improved the skill and reliability of the ET0 forecasts compared with the conventional method, due to the adjustment in the spread of the ensemble forecast.
Lu Li, Marie Pontoppidan, Stefan Sobolowski, and Alfonso Senatore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 771–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-771-2020, 2020
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We assessed the impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over mountainous terrain. The calibrated convection-permitting model performs better than the simpler conceptual model. Discharge is slightly more sensitive to spin-up time than precipitation due to the influence of soil moisture. A maximum of 0.5 m of snow is converted to runoff irrespective of the initial snow depth, and this snowmelt contributes to discharge mostly during peak flow period.
Sofya Guseva, Tobias Bleninger, Klaus Jöhnk, Bruna Arcie Polli, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, Qianlai Zhuang, James Anthony Rusak, Huaxia Yao, Andreas Lorke, and Victor Stepanenko
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 697–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-697-2020, 2020
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We compare lake models with different complexity focusing on the key factors (e.g., eddy diffusivity) which can have an influence on the distribution of the dissolved gases in water. For the first time, we compare the biogeochemical modules in the ALBM and LAKE models. The result showed a good agreement with observed data (O2), but not for CO2. It indicates the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models.
Yingzhao Ma, Xun Sun, Haonan Chen, Yang Hong, and Yinsheng Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-43, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Substantial biases exist in the Satellite Precipitation Estimates (SPE) in complex terrain regions and it remains a challenge to quantify and correct such biases. This study proposes a two-step approach by firstly reducing the systematic errors of each SPE using rain gauge observations as references, and then merging the improved multi-SPE with a Bayesian weighting model. It is found that the merged multi-SPE are significantly improved compared to each SPE, especially in heavy rainfall events.
Yixin Mao, Wade T. Crow, and Bart Nijssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 615–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-615-2020, 2020
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The new generation of satellite soil moisture observations are used to correct the streamflow in a regional-scale river basin simulated by a mathematical model. The correction is done via both the direct updating of soil moisture and correction of rainfall input. Results show some streamflow improvement, but the magnitude is small. A larger improvement will need future generations of even higher-quality satellite soil moisture data and better process representation in the mathematical model.
Jean-Pierre Vergnes, Nicolas Roux, Florence Habets, Philippe Ackerer, Nadia Amraoui, François Besson, Yvan Caballero, Quentin Courtois, Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy, Pierre Etchevers, Nicolas Gallois, Delphine J. Leroux, Laurent Longuevergne, Patrick Le Moigne, Thierry Morel, Simon Munier, Fabienne Regimbeau, Dominique Thiéry, and Pascal Viennot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 633–654, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-633-2020, 2020
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The AquiFR hydrogeological modelling platform aims to provide
short-term-to-seasonal hydrological forecasts over France for daily water management and long-term simulations for climate impact studies. The results described in this study confirm the feasibility of gathering independent groundwater models into the same numerical tool. This new tool encourages the development of groundwater modelling, and it has the potential to be valuable for many operational and research applications.
Jun Ge, Andrew J. Pitman, Weidong Guo, Beilei Zan, and Congbin Fu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 515–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-515-2020, 2020
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We investigate the impact of revegetation on the hydrology of the Loess Plateau based on high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We find that past revegetation has caused decreased runoff and soil moisture with increased evapotranspiration as well as little response from rainfall. WRF suggests that further revegetation could aggravate this water imbalance. We caution that further revegetation might be unsustainable in this region.
Bertrand Bonan, Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, Alina Lavinia Barbu, David Fairbairn, Simon Munier, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 325–347, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-325-2020, 2020
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This paper introduces an ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter, for jointly assimilating observations of the surface soil moisture and leaf area index in the Land Data Assimilation System LDAS-Monde. LDAS-Monde constrains the Interaction between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model to improve the reanalysis of land surface variables. EnSRF is compared with the simplified extended Kalman filter over the European Mediterranean region.
Alfonso Senatore, Luca Furnari, and Giuseppe Mendicino
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 269–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-269-2020, 2020
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This paper addresses the question of how different resolutions of sea surface temperature (SST) representation affect regional operational hydro-meteorological forecasting chains over coastal Mediterranean catchments by analysing two different severe events that affected southern Italy in 2015. Even if the benefits of high-resolution SST representation are hidden by other sources of uncertainty, the experiments highlight that the impact is non-negligible in most cases.
Hannes Müller-Thomy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 169–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-169-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-169-2020, 2020
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Simulation of highly dynamic floods requires high-resolution rainfall time series. Observed time series of that kind are often too short; rainfall generation is the only solution. The applied rainfall generator tends to underestimate the process memory of the rainfall. By modifications of the rainfall generator and a subsequent optimisation method the process memory is improved significantly. Flood simulations are expected to be more trustable using the rainfall time series generated like this.
Hyung-Il Eum and Anil Gupta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5151–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5151-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5151-2019, 2019
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As numerous high-resolution historical gridded climate datasets are available in Alberta, many previous works have simply combined multiple climate datasets without pre-assessment, which may cause unreliable outputs. This study suggested a systematic climate data evaluation system and generated a new performance-based climate dataset. This study proved that the new dataset is a better representation of historical climate conditions, enhancing hydrologic simulations.
Anaïs Barella-Ortiz and Pere Quintana-Seguí
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5111–5131, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5111-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5111-2019, 2019
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Drought is an important climatic risk. This study analyses drought representation and propagation by regional climate models from Med-CORDEX simulations using standardized indices. Results show that these models improve meteorological drought representation, but uncertainties are identified in its propagation and the way soil moisture and hydrological droughts are characterized. These are mainly due to model structure, making further improvements in land surface modelling necessary.
Alberto Martínez-de la Torre and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4909–4932, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4909-2019, 2019
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Over semi-arid regions, it is essential to have a correct representation of the groundwater processes in climate modelling. We present a land surface and groundwater model that incorporates groundwater–soil interactions, groundwater–rivers flow and lateral transport at the subsurface. We study the groundwater influence on soil moisture distribution and memory, and on evapotranspiration in the Iberian Peninsula. Shallow water table regions persist and provide water to the surface during droughts.
Juan Ossa-Moreno, Greg Keir, Neil McIntyre, Michela Cameletti, and Diego Rivera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4763–4781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4763-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4763-2019, 2019
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Water management in mountains is challenging when there are no climate data of good quality. This can be addressed by using statistical methods or by including alternative sources of information. This project tests a relatively complex statistical method and compares it with simpler alternatives while including satellite data. It was found that the simple alternative may behave as well as the complex one, and how good the alternative sources of information are could also be established.
Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li, Zhe Zhang, Liang Chen, Sopan Kurkute, Lucia Scaff, and Xicai Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4635–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4635-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4635-2019, 2019
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High-resolution regional climate modeling that resolves convection was conducted over western Canada for the current climate and a high-end greenhouse gas emission scenario by 2100. The simulation demonstrates its good quality in capturing the temporal and spatial variation in the major hydrometeorological variables. The warming is stronger in the northeastern domain in the cold seasons. It also shows a larger increase in high-intensity precipitation events than moderate and light ones by 2100.
Émilie Poirier, Julie M. Thériault, and Maud Leriche
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4097–4111, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4097-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4097-2019, 2019
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The impact of phase changes aloft on the precipitation distribution in the Kananaskis Valley, Alberta, was studied. The model reproduces well the atmospheric conditions and precipitation pattern. In this region, sublimation has a greater impact on the evolution of the precipitation than melting. The trajectories of hydrometeors explain the precipitation distribution in the valley, which can impact snowpacks. The amount of snow at the surface also depends on the strength of the downslope flow.
Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and María Carmen Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3900, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3885-2019, 2019
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Here, we study the main moisture sources of the two famous western Mediterranean flood events of autumn 1982 (October and November). Results confirm the hypothesis that a large amount of precipitable water was involved, which was to a great extent advected from the tropics and subtropics. This remote moisture transport occurred at medium levels of the atmosphere via moisture plumes or atmospheric rivers. During the October event the contribution of local sources was also important.
Audrey Maheu, Islem Hajji, François Anctil, Daniel F. Nadeau, and René Therrien
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3843–3863, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3843-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3843-2019, 2019
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We tested a new method to simulate terrestrial evaporation in a hydrological model. Given physical constraints imposed by this model, it should help avoid the overestimation of terrestrial evaporation in climate change assessments. We show the good performance of the model by comparing simulated terrestrial evaporation to observations at three sites with different climates and vegetation. Overall, this research proposes a method that will improve our ability to make streamflow projections.
Maria Laura Poletti, Francesco Silvestro, Silvio Davolio, Flavio Pignone, and Nicola Rebora
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3823-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3823-2019, 2019
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In this work a probabilistic rainfall nowcasting model, a non-hydrostatic high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model corrected with data assimilation, and a distributed hydrological model are used together with radar observations to implement a hydrological nowcasting chain. This chain is used to obtain a useful discharge prediction in small catchments with a time horizon of 2–8 h.
Juris D. Almonte and Ronald E. Stewart
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3665–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3665-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3665-2019, 2019
Ronald E. Stewart, Kit K. Szeto, Barrie R. Bonsal, John M. Hanesiak, Bohdan Kochtubajda, Yanping Li, Julie M. Thériault, Chris M. DeBeer, Benita Y. Tam, Zhenhua Li, Zhuo Liu, Jennifer A. Bruneau, Patrick Duplessis, Sébastien Marinier, and Dominic Matte
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3437–3455, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3437-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3437-2019, 2019
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This article examines future atmospheric-related phenomena across the interior of western Canada associated with a
business-as-usualclimate scenario. Changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and extent of warming vary with season, and these generally lead to increases, especially after mid-century, in factors associated with winter snowstorms, freezing rain, drought, forest fires, as well as atmospheric forcing of spring floods, although not necessarily summer convection.
Li Liu, Yue Ping Xu, Su Li Pan, and Zhi Xu Bai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3335–3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3335-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3335-2019, 2019
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The ensemble flood forecasting system can skillfully predict annual maximum floods with a lead time of more than 10 d and has skill in forecasting the snowmelt-related components about 7 d ahead. The accuracy of forecasts for the annual first floods is inferior, with a lead time of only 5 d. The snowmelt-induced surface runoff is the most poorly captured component by the system, and the well-predicted rainfall-related components are the major contributor to good performance.
Kamal Ahmed, Shamsuddin Shahid, Xiaojun Wang, Nadeem Nawaz, and Najeebullah Khan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3081–3096, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3081-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3081-2019, 2019
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The long-term changes (1901–2016) in annual and seasonal aridity in Pakistan and its causes are analyzed in this paper. Gauge-based gridded precipitation and PET data are used to show the spatial and temporal patterns of the changes in aridity over the diverse climate of the country. The present study suggests that the relative influence of precipitation and temperature on aridity determines its trends in the context of climate change.
Jamie Towner, Hannah L. Cloke, Ervin Zsoter, Zachary Flamig, Jannis M. Hoch, Juan Bazo, Erin Coughlan de Perez, and Elisabeth M. Stephens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3057–3080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3057-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3057-2019, 2019
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This study presents an intercomparison analysis of eight global hydrological models (GHMs), assessing their ability to simulate peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Results indicate that the meteorological input is the most influential component of the hydrological modelling chain, with the recent ERA-5 reanalysis dataset significantly improving the ability to simulate flood peaks in the Peruvian Amazon. In contrast, calibration of the Lisflood routing model was found to have no impact.
Shunya Koseki and Priscilla A. Mooney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2795–2812, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019, 2019
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This study revealed that Lake Malawi plays an important role for local precipitation in terms of spatial distribution and diurnal cycle in boreal summer (November to March). The diurnal cycle is detected by harmonics analysis and empirical orthogonal function analysis. An idealized simulation of WRF without Lake Malawi clearly showed that Lake Malawi is a source of local precipitation.
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To date, there is little empirical evidence as to which indicator best represents drought impact occurrence for any given region and/or sector. We therefore exploited text-based data from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) to evaluate drought indicators, empirically determine indicator thresholds, and model drought impacts. A quantitative analysis using Germany and the UK as a testbed proved to be a useful tool for objectively appraising drought indicators.
To date, there is little empirical evidence as to which indicator best represents drought impact...
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