Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015
Research article
 | 
03 Mar 2015
Research article |  | 03 Mar 2015

Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River

M. S. Siam and E. A. B. Eltahir

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Cited articles

Abtew, W., Melesse, A. M., and Dessalegne, T.: El Niño Southern Oscillation link to the Blue Nile River Basin hydrology, Hydrol. Process., 23, 3653–3660, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7367, 2009.
Amarasekera, K. N., Lee, R. F., Williams, E. R., and Eltahir, E. A. B.: ENSO and the natural variability in the flow of tropical rivers, J. Hydrol., 200, 24–39, 1996.
Bacmeister, J. T., Pegion, P. J., Schubert, S. D., and Suarez, M. J.: An atlas of seasonal means simulated by the NSIPP 1 atmospheric GCM, NASA Tech. Memo. 104606, Vol. 17, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, 194 pp., 2000.
Beltrando, G. and Camberlin, P.: Interannual variability of rainfall in Eastern Horn of Africa and indicators of atmospheric circulation, Int. J. Climatol., 13, 533–546, 1993.
Black, E., Slingo, J., and Sperber, K. R.: An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST, Mon. Weather Rev., 31, 74–94, 2003.
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Short summary
This paper explains the different natural modes of interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River and also presents a new index based on the sea surface temperature (SST) over the southern Indian Ocean to forecast the flow of the Nile River. It also presents a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that can be used to predict the Nile flow based on indices of the SST in the eastern Pacific and southern Indian oceans.