Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River

Siam, M. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015

Articles | Volume 19, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 3

Research article

|

03 Mar 2015

Research article |

| 03 Mar 2015

Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River

M. S. Siam and E. A. B. Eltahir

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Total article views: 4,053 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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Views and downloads (calculated since 14 May 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2014	70	83	2	155
Jun 2014	23	27	1	51
Jul 2014	28	20	0	48
Aug 2014	18	14	1	33
Sep 2014	24	18	1	43
Oct 2014	10	12	1	23
Nov 2014	8	10	0	18
Dec 2014	7	13	1	21
Jan 2015	13	8	4	25
Feb 2015	8	6	0	14
Mar 2015	94	69	1	164
Apr 2015	35	23	0	58
May 2015	12	12	0	24
Jun 2015	32	15	0	47
Jul 2015	29	17	2	48
Aug 2015	15	21	0	36
Sep 2015	13	7	6	26
Oct 2015	16	16	1	33
Nov 2015	29	16	2	47
Dec 2015	4	19	0	23
Jan 2016	25	19	1	45
Feb 2016	18	6	1	25
Mar 2016	34	8	15	57
Apr 2016	7	8	1	16
May 2016	12	15	0	27
Jun 2016	6	2	0	8
Jul 2016	10	5	2	17
Aug 2016	7	4	0	11
Sep 2016	9	4	0	13
Oct 2016	13	3	1	17
Nov 2016	8	5	0	13
Dec 2016	5	3	0	8
Jan 2017	21	4	0	25
Feb 2017	17	6	2	25
Mar 2017	25	5	2	32
Apr 2017	42	12	1	55
May 2017	39	23	1	63
Jun 2017	31	8	2	41
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Aug 2017	6	17	0	23
Sep 2017	9	12	0	21
Oct 2017	5	9	1	15
Nov 2017	9	7	0	16
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Jan 2018	5	7	1	13
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Apr 2018	3	3	0	6
May 2018	10	4	1	15
Jun 2018	7	7	2	16
Jul 2018	10	7	1	18
Aug 2018	9	6	0	15
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Oct 2018	13	11	1	25
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Jan 2019	6	5	1	12
Feb 2019	7	5	0	12
Mar 2019	5	6	0	11
Apr 2019	8	6	1	15
May 2019	7	5	0	12
Jun 2019	8	4	0	12
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Aug 2019	4	4	1	9
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Nov 2019	12	7	1	20
Dec 2019	5	6	1	12
Jan 2020	8	4	3	15
Feb 2020	7	4	1	12
Mar 2020	5	8	0	13
Apr 2020	7	8	1	16
May 2020	7	2	0	9
Jun 2020	15	4	0	19
Jul 2020	26	18	7	51
Aug 2020	12	12	10	34
Sep 2020	14	9	0	23
Oct 2020	15	8	0	23
Nov 2020	7	9	0	16
Dec 2020	10	9	2	21
Jan 2021	20	12	0	32
Feb 2021	14	10	0	24
Mar 2021	9	6	3	18
Apr 2021	7	10	0	17
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Jul 2021	10	12	0	22
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Sep 2021	14	11	0	25
Oct 2021	7	30	0	37
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Feb 2023	49	12	4	65
Mar 2023	48	12	2	62
Apr 2023	11	4	0	15
May 2023	11	13	0	24
Jun 2023	6	10	1	17
Jul 2023	10	7	4	21
Aug 2023	8	9	1	18
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Oct 2023	10	6	2	18
Nov 2023	8	4	0	12
Dec 2023	17	6	1	24
Jan 2024	11	13	1	25
Feb 2024	15	12	2	29
Mar 2024	13	13	2	28
Apr 2024	14	3	4	21
May 2024	14	10	3	27
Jun 2024	19	11	2	32
Jul 2024	19	12	5	36
Aug 2024	48	3	1	52
Sep 2024	30	5	1	36
Oct 2024	23	7	0	30
Nov 2024	24	7	3	34
Dec 2024	32	6	3	41
Jan 2025	18	6	0	24
Feb 2025	26	15	0	41
Mar 2025	21	12	1	34
Apr 2025	28	11	0	39
May 2025	20	6	0	26
Jun 2025	43	14	0	57
Jul 2025	24	16	1	41
Aug 2025	23	13	1	37
Sep 2025	40	20	0	60
Oct 2025	30	18	3	51
Nov 2025	28	25	2	55
Dec 2025	30	34	2	66
Jan 2026	47	22	9	78
Feb 2026	25	11	2	38
Mar 2026	7	6	0	13

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 14 May 2014)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
May 2014	70	83	2	155
Jun 2014	23	27	1	51
Jul 2014	28	20	0	48
Aug 2014	18	14	1	33
Sep 2014	24	18	1	43
Oct 2014	10	12	1	23
Nov 2014	8	10	0	18
Dec 2014	7	13	1	21
Jan 2015	13	8	4	25
Feb 2015	8	6	0	14
Mar 2015	94	69	1	164
Apr 2015	35	23	0	58
May 2015	12	12	0	24
Jun 2015	32	15	0	47
Jul 2015	29	17	2	48
Aug 2015	15	21	0	36
Sep 2015	13	7	6	26
Oct 2015	16	16	1	33
Nov 2015	29	16	2	47
Dec 2015	4	19	0	23
Jan 2016	25	19	1	45
Feb 2016	18	6	1	25
Mar 2016	34	8	15	57
Apr 2016	7	8	1	16
May 2016	12	15	0	27
Jun 2016	6	2	0	8
Jul 2016	10	5	2	17
Aug 2016	7	4	0	11
Sep 2016	9	4	0	13
Oct 2016	13	3	1	17
Nov 2016	8	5	0	13
Dec 2016	5	3	0	8
Jan 2017	21	4	0	25
Feb 2017	17	6	2	25
Mar 2017	25	5	2	32
Apr 2017	42	12	1	55
May 2017	39	23	1	63
Jun 2017	31	8	2	41
Jul 2017	18	4	0	22
Aug 2017	6	17	0	23
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Jun 2018	7	7	2	16
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Jan 2021	20	12	0	32
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Aug 2021	7	11	0	18
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Oct 2021	7	30	0	37
Nov 2021	8	20	1	29
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Jan 2022	12	10	1	23
Feb 2022	7	7	2	16
Mar 2022	8	7	0	15
Apr 2022	9	5	1	15
May 2022	4	4	1	9
Jun 2022	11	8	2	21
Jul 2022	21	3	1	25
Aug 2022	22	7	0	29
Sep 2022	9	2	7	18
Oct 2022	10	3	1	14
Nov 2022	28	7	2	37
Dec 2022	22	5	1	28
Jan 2023	19	13	2	34
Feb 2023	49	12	4	65
Mar 2023	48	12	2	62
Apr 2023	11	4	0	15
May 2023	11	13	0	24
Jun 2023	6	10	1	17
Jul 2023	10	7	4	21
Aug 2023	8	9	1	18
Sep 2023	6	14	1	21
Oct 2023	10	6	2	18
Nov 2023	8	4	0	12
Dec 2023	17	6	1	24
Jan 2024	11	13	1	25
Feb 2024	15	12	2	29
Mar 2024	13	13	2	28
Apr 2024	14	3	4	21
May 2024	14	10	3	27
Jun 2024	19	11	2	32
Jul 2024	19	12	5	36
Aug 2024	48	3	1	52
Sep 2024	30	5	1	36
Oct 2024	23	7	0	30
Nov 2024	24	7	3	34
Dec 2024	32	6	3	41
Jan 2025	18	6	0	24
Feb 2025	26	15	0	41
Mar 2025	21	12	1	34
Apr 2025	28	11	0	39
May 2025	20	6	0	26
Jun 2025	43	14	0	57
Jul 2025	24	16	1	41
Aug 2025	23	13	1	37
Sep 2025	40	20	0	60
Oct 2025	30	18	3	51
Nov 2025	28	25	2	55
Dec 2025	30	34	2	66
Jan 2026	47	22	9	78
Feb 2026	25	11	2	38
Mar 2026	7	6	0	13

Latest update: 11 Mar 2026

Short summary

This paper explains the different natural modes of interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River and also presents a new index based on the sea surface temperature (SST) over the southern Indian Ocean to forecast the flow of the Nile River. It also presents a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that can be used to predict the Nile flow based on indices of the SST in the eastern Pacific and southern Indian oceans.