References

HESS

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

HESS

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

1607-7938

Copernicus Publications

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015

Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River

Siam

M. S.

¹ Eltahir

E. A. B.

Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 15 Vassar St., Cambridge, MA 02139, USA

03 03 2015

19 3 1181 1192

2015

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This study analyzes extensive data sets collected during the twentieth century and defines four modes of natural variability in the flow of the Nile River, identifying a new significant potential for improving predictability of floods and droughts. Previous studies have identified a significant teleconnection between the Nile flow and the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains about 25% of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. Here, this study identifies a region in the southern Indian Ocean, with a similarly strong teleconnection to the Nile flow. Sea surface temperature (SST) in the region (50–80° E and 25–35° S) explains 28% of the interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River and, when combined with the ENSO index, the explained variability of the flow of the Nile River increases to 44%. In addition, during those years with anomalous SST conditions in both oceans, this study estimates that indices of the SSTs in the Pacific and Indian oceans can collectively explain up to 84% of the interannual variability in the flow of the Nile. Building on these findings, this study uses the classical Bayesian theorem to develop a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that predicts the Nile flow based on global model predictions of indices of the SST in the eastern Pacific and southern Indian oceans.

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