Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Dec 2014
Research article |
| 12 Dec 2014
Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography
J. Crossman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Chemical Sciences, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada
Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
M. N. Futter
Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
P. G. Whitehead
Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
E. Stainsby
Ontario Ministry of Environment, Etobicoke, ON, Canada
H. M. Baulch
School of Environment and Sustainability and Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
L. Jin
Department of Geology, State University of New York College at Cortland, Cortland, NY, USA
S. K. Oni
Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Science, Umeå, Sweden
R. L. Wilby
Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK
P. J. Dillon
Chemical Sciences, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada
Related authors
No articles found.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7629–7643, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7629-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
Anthony A. P. Baron, Helen M. Baulch, Ali Nazemi, and Colin J. Whitfield
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1503, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We worked to understand how climate variability and flow management affected water quality in a key drinking water source. Our focus was on dissolved organic carbon, or DOC, and our work demonstrates that DOC can change rapidly, reaching high concentrations in wet periods, when flow sources are dominated by the local catchment. Results indicate that the impacts of high local flow, and low inflows from managed sources are compounding water quality challenges, creating issues for water treatment.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Jackie R. Webb, Peter R. Leavitt, Gavin L. Simpson, Helen M. Baulch, Heather A. Haig, Kyle R. Hodder, and Kerri Finlay
Biogeosciences, 16, 4211–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4211-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4211-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Small farm reservoirs are key features within agricultural landscapes, yet these waterbodies can contribute substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere. This study assessed some of the environmental factors that may impact the production of these GHGs. We found promise that farm reservoirs can act as net greenhouse gas sinks and identified some of the key water quality, landscape, and design features that may support GHG mitigation.
Conor Murphy, Ciaran Broderick, Timothy P. Burt, Mary Curley, Catriona Duffy, Julia Hall, Shaun Harrigan, Tom K. R. Matthews, Neil Macdonald, Gerard McCarthy, Mark P. McCarthy, Donal Mullan, Simon Noone, Timothy J. Osborn, Ciara Ryan, John Sweeney, Peter W. Thorne, Seamus Walsh, and Robert L. Wilby
Clim. Past, 14, 413–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This work reconstructs a continuous 305-year rainfall record for Ireland. The series reveals remarkable variability in decadal rainfall – far in excess of the typical period of digitised data. Notably, the series sheds light on exceptionally wet winters in the 1730s and wet summers in the 1750s. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate both locally and across Europe.
Daniel Green, Dapeng Yu, Ian Pattison, Robert Wilby, Lee Bosher, Ramila Patel, Philip Thompson, Keith Trowell, Julia Draycon, Martin Halse, Lili Yang, and Tim Ryley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper demonstrates a novel method of evaluating emergency responder accessibility at the city scale during fluvial and surface water flood events of varying magnitudes. Results suggest that surface water flood events within the city of Leicester, UK, may cause more disruption to emergency responders when compared to fluvial flood events of the same magnitude. This study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during flood events.
Simon Parry, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, and Paul J. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK between 1883 and 2013. The approach detects 459 events that vary in space and time. This large dataset allows individual events to be compared with others in the historical record. The ability to objectively appraise contemporary events against the historical record has not previously been possible, and may allow water managers to prepare for a range of outcomes at the end of a drought.
Stephen Oni, Martyn Futter, Jose Ledesma, Claudia Teutschbein, Jim Buttle, and Hjalmar Laudon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2811–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an important framework to improve hydrologic projections in cold regions. Hydrologic modelling/projections are often based on model calibration to long-term data. Here we used dry and wet years as a proxy to quantify uncertainty in projecting hydrologic extremes. We showed that projections based on long-term data could underestimate runoff by up to 35% in boreal regions. We believe the hydrologic modelling community will benefit from new insights derived from this study.
J. Armstrong, R. Wilby, and R. J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2511–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A criterion to categorise climate change adaptation frameworks is presented denoting characteristics of three key frameworks established in the literature: scenario–led, decision-centric and vulnerability–led. Applying the criterion, the usability of frameworks is examined in coastal Suffolk. Results indicate adaptation frameworks established in the literature are not utilised in isolation in everyday practice. In reality, hybrid approaches are utilised to overcome aspects of framework weakness.
S. Harrigan, C. Murphy, J. Hall, R. L. Wilby, and J. Sweeney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1935–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, 2014
M. N. Futter, M. A. Erlandsson, D. Butterfield, P. G. Whitehead, S. K. Oni, and A. J. Wade
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 855–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-855-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-855-2014, 2014
R. L. Wilby and D. Yu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3937–3955, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3937-2013, 2013
P. Porcal, P. J. Dillon, and L. A. Molot
Biogeosciences, 10, 5533–5543, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5533-2013, 2013
J. L. J. Ledesma, T. Grabs, M. N. Futter, K. H. Bishop, H. Laudon, and S. J. Köhler
Biogeosciences, 10, 3849–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3849-2013, 2013
S. K. Oni, M. N. Futter, K. Bishop, S. J. Köhler, M. Ottosson-Löfvenius, and H. Laudon
Biogeosciences, 10, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2315-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2315-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Catchment hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
On the importance of discharge observation uncertainty when interpreting hydrological model performance
A data-centric perspective on the information needed for hydrological uncertainty predictions
A decomposition approach to evaluating the local performance of global streamflow reanalysis
How much water vapour does the Tibetan Plateau release into the atmosphere?
Technical note: Complexity–uncertainty curve (c-u-curve) – a method to analyse, classify and compare dynamical systems
Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty
Why do our rainfall–runoff models keep underestimating the peak flows?
Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies
Pitfalls and a feasible solution for using KGE as an informal likelihood function in MCMC methods: DREAM(ZS) as an example
Benchmarking global hydrological and land surface models against GRACE in a medium-sized tropical basin
Guidance on evaluating parametric model uncertainty at decision-relevant scales
Quantifying input uncertainty in the calibration of water quality models: reordering errors via the secant method
Sequential data assimilation for real-time probabilistic flood inundation mapping
Key challenges facing the application of the conductivity mass balance method: a case study of the Mississippi River basin
Coupled machine learning and the limits of acceptability approach applied in parameter identification for a distributed hydrological model
A systematic assessment of uncertainties in large-scale soil loss estimation from different representations of USLE input factors – a case study for Kenya and Uganda
Technical note: Uncertainty in multi-source partitioning using large tracer data sets
Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming
A likelihood framework for deterministic hydrological models and the importance of non-stationary autocorrelation
Technical note: Analytical sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation of baseflow index calculated by a two-component hydrograph separation method with conductivity as a tracer
Understanding the water cycle over the upper Tarim Basin: retrospecting the estimated discharge bias to atmospheric variables and model structure
The effect of input data resolution and complexity on the uncertainty of hydrological predictions in a humid vegetated watershed
Parameter uncertainty analysis for an operational hydrological model using residual-based and limits of acceptability approaches
Technical note: Pitfalls in using log-transformed flows within the KGE criterion
Improvement of model evaluation by incorporating prediction and measurement uncertainty
Transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts
Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)
Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections
Consistency assessment of rating curve data in various locations using Bidirectional Reach (BReach)
The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes
Residual uncertainty estimation using instance-based learning with applications to hydrologic forecasting
Characterizing and reducing equifinality by constraining a distributed catchment model with regional signatures, local observations, and process understanding
Effects of uncertainty in soil properties on simulated hydrological states and fluxes at different spatio-temporal scales
Extending flood forecasting lead time in a large watershed by coupling WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model
Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals
Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty
Disentangling timing and amplitude errors in streamflow simulations
Reliability of lumped hydrological modeling in a semi-arid mountainous catchment facing water-use changes
Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections
Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria
Accounting for dependencies in regionalized signatures for predictions in ungauged catchments
Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China
Uncertainty in hydrological signatures
Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling
Estimation of predictive hydrologic uncertainty using the quantile regression and UNEEC methods and their comparison on contrasting catchments
Transferring global uncertainty estimates from gauged to ungauged catchments
Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model
Uncertainty reduction and parameter estimation of a distributed hydrological model with ground and remote-sensing data
The skill of seasonal ensemble low-flow forecasts in the Moselle River for three different hydrological models
The importance of hydrological uncertainty assessment methods in climate change impact studies
Jerom P. M. Aerts, Jannis M. Hoch, Gemma Coxon, Nick C. van de Giesen, and Rolf W. Hut
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5011–5030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For users of hydrological models, model suitability often hinges on how well simulated outputs match observed discharge. This study highlights the importance of including discharge observation uncertainty in hydrological model performance assessment. We highlight the need to account for this uncertainty in model comparisons and introduce a practical method suitable for any observational time series with available uncertainty estimates.
Andreas Auer, Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Grey Nearing, Sepp Hochreiter, and Daniel Klotz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4099–4126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work examines the impact of temporal and spatial information on the uncertainty estimation of streamflow forecasts. The study emphasizes the importance of data updates and global information for precise uncertainty estimates. We use conformal prediction to show that recent data enhance the estimates, even if only available infrequently. Local data yield reasonable average estimations but fall short for peak-flow events. The use of global data significantly improves these predictions.
Tongtiegang Zhao, Zexin Chen, Yu Tian, Bingyao Zhang, Yu Li, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3597–3611, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The local performance plays a critical part in practical applications of global streamflow reanalysis. This paper develops a decomposition approach to evaluating streamflow analysis at different timescales. The reanalysis is observed to be more effective in characterizing seasonal, annual and multi-annual features than daily, weekly and monthly features. Also, the local performance is shown to be primarily influenced by precipitation seasonality, longitude, mean precipitation and mean slope.
Chaolei Zheng, Li Jia, Guangcheng Hu, Massimo Menenti, and Joris Timmermans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-55, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Significant changes are occurring in the Tibetan Plateau, but the amount and variations of evapotranspiration (ET) are with large uncertainty. This study compares 22 ET products and finds that the mean annual ET is 350.34 mm/yr over the Tibetan Plateau, with soil water contribute most to total ET. It also find most products showing an increasing trend. It provides a comprehensive study that supports further ET estimation and potential use of ET data for relevant water and climate studies.
Uwe Ehret and Pankaj Dey
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2591–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2591-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We propose the
c-u-curvemethod to characterize dynamical (time-variable) systems of all kinds.
Uis for uncertainty and expresses how well a system can be predicted in a given period of time.
Cis for complexity and expresses how predictability differs between different periods, i.e. how well predictability itself can be predicted. The method helps to better classify and compare dynamical systems across a wide range of disciplines, thus facilitating scientific collaboration.
Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, Francesca Pianosi, Fanny Sarrazin, Susana Almeida, Liz Holcombe, Jim Freer, Nick Chappell, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2523–2534, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This publication provides an introduction to the CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox. CURE offers workflows for a variety of uncertainty estimation methods. One of its most important features is the requirement that all of the assumptions on which a workflow analysis depends be defined. This facilitates communication with potential users of an analysis. An audit trail log is produced automatically from a workflow for future reference.
András Bárdossy and Faizan Anwar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1987–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1987-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1987-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates the fact that the large river flows forecasted by the models show an underestimation that is inversely related to the number of locations where precipitation is recorded, which is independent of the model. The higher the number of points where the amount of precipitation is recorded, the better the estimate of the river flows.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Yan Liu, Jaime Fernández-Ortega, Matías Mudarra, and Andreas Hartmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5341–5355, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5341-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We adapt the informal Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) with a gamma distribution to apply it as an informal likelihood function in the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis DREAM(ZS) method. Our adapted approach performs as well as the formal likelihood function for exploring posterior distributions of model parameters. The adapted KGE is superior to the formal likelihood function for calibrations combining multiple observations with different lengths, frequencies and units.
Silvana Bolaños Chavarría, Micha Werner, Juan Fernando Salazar, and Teresita Betancur Vargas
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4323–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4323-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4323-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using total water storage (TWS) from GRACE satellites, we assess the reliability of global hydrological and land surface models over a medium-sized tropical basin with a well-developed gauging network. We find the models poorly represent TWS for the monthly series, but they improve in representing seasonality and long-term trends. We conclude that GRACE provides a valuable dataset to benchmark global simulations of TWS change, offering a useful tool to improve global models in tropical basins.
Jared D. Smith, Laurence Lin, Julianne D. Quinn, and Lawrence E. Band
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2519–2539, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2519-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Watershed models are used to simulate streamflow and water quality, and to inform siting and sizing decisions for runoff and nutrient control projects. Data are limited for many watershed processes that are represented in such models, which requires selecting the most important processes to be calibrated. We show that this selection should be based on decision-relevant metrics at the spatial scales of interest for the control projects. This should enable more robust project designs.
Xia Wu, Lucy Marshall, and Ashish Sharma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1203–1221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1203-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1203-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Decomposing parameter and input errors in model calibration is a considerable challenge. This study transfers the direct estimation of an input error series to their rank estimation and develops a new algorithm, i.e., Bayesian error analysis with reordering (BEAR). In the context of a total suspended solids simulation, two synthetic studies and a real study demonstrate that the BEAR method is effective for improving the input error estimation and water quality model calibration.
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Peyman Abbaszadeh, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4995–5011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4995-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4995-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, daily observations are assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to update the performance of modeling and improve the flood inundation mapping skill. Results demonstrate that integrating data assimilation with a hydrodynamic model improves the performance of flood simulation and provides more reliable inundation maps. A flowchart provides the overall steps for applying this framework in practice and forecasting probabilistic flood maps before the onset of upcoming floods.
Hang Lyu, Chenxi Xia, Jinghan Zhang, and Bo Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6075–6090, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6075-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6075-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Baseflow separation plays a critical role in science-based management of water resources. This study addressed key challenges hindering the application of the generally accepted conductivity mass balance (CMB). Monitoring data for over 200 stream sites of the Mississippi River basin were collected to answer the following questions. What are the characteristics of a watershed that determine the method suitability? What length of monitoring data is needed? How can the parameters be more accurate?
Aynom T. Teweldebrhan, Thomas V. Schuler, John F. Burkhart, and Morten Hjorth-Jensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4641–4658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4641-2020, 2020
Christoph Schürz, Bano Mehdi, Jens Kiesel, Karsten Schulz, and Mathew Herrnegger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4463–4489, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4463-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The USLE is a commonly used model to estimate soil erosion by water. It quantifies soil loss as a product of six inputs representing rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, plant cover, and support practices. Many methods exist to derive these inputs, which can, however, lead to substantial differences in the estimated soil loss. Here, we analyze the effect of different input representations on the estimated soil loss in a large-scale study in Kenya and Uganda.
Alicia Correa, Diego Ochoa-Tocachi, and Christian Birkel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5059–5068, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5059-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5059-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The applications and availability of large tracer data sets have vastly increased in recent years leading to research into the contributions of multiple sources to a mixture. We introduce a method based on Taylor series approximation to estimate the uncertainties of such sources' contributions. The method is illustrated with examples of hydrology (14 tracers) and a MATLAB code is provided for reproducibility. This method can be generalized to any number of tracers across a range of disciplines.
Hongmei Xu, Lüliu Liu, Yong Wang, Sheng Wang, Ying Hao, Jingjin Ma, and Tong Jiang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4219–4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4219-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
1.5 and 2 °C have become targets in the discussion of climate change impacts. However, climate research is also challenged to provide more robust information on the impact of climate change at local and regional scales to assist the development of sound scientific adaptation and mitigation measures. This study assessed the impacts and differences of 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming on basin-scale river runoff by examining four river basins covering a wide hydroclimatic setting in China.
Lorenz Ammann, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Peter Reichert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2147–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2147-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The uncertainty of hydrological models can be substantial, and its quantification and realistic description are often difficult. We propose a new flexible probabilistic framework to describe and quantify this uncertainty. It is show that the correlation of the errors can be non-stationary, and that accounting for temporal changes in correlation can lead to strongly improved probabilistic predictions. This is a promising avenue for improving uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling.
Weifei Yang, Changlai Xiao, and Xiujuan Liang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1103–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1103-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1103-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyzed the sensitivity of the baseflow index to the parameters of the conductivity two-component hydrograph separation method. The results indicated that the baseflow index is more sensitive to the conductivity of baseflow and the separation method may be more suitable for the long time series in a small watershed. After considering the mutual offset of the measurement errors of conductivity and streamflow, the uncertainty in baseflow index was reduced by half.
Xudong Zhou, Jan Polcher, Tao Yang, Yukiko Hirabayashi, and Trung Nguyen-Quang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6087–6108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6087-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6087-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Model bias is commonly seen in discharge simulation by hydrological or land surface models. This study tested an approach with the Budyko hypothesis to retrospect the estimated discharge bias to different bias sources including the atmospheric variables and model structure. Results indicate that the bias is most likely caused by the forcing variables, and the forcing bias should firstly be assessed and reduced in order to perform pertinent analysis of the regional water cycle.
Linh Hoang, Rajith Mukundan, Karen E. B. Moore, Emmet M. Owens, and Tammo S. Steenhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5947–5965, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5947-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper analyzes the effect of two input data (DEMs and the combination of soil and land use data) with different resolution and complexity on the uncertainty of model outputs (the predictions of streamflow and saturated areas) and parameter uncertainty using SWAT-HS. Results showed that DEM resolution has significant effect on the spatial pattern of saturated areas and using complex soil and land use data may not necessarily improve model performance or reduce model uncertainty.
Aynom T. Teweldebrhan, John F. Burkhart, and Thomas V. Schuler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5021–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5021-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5021-2018, 2018
Léonard Santos, Guillaume Thirel, and Charles Perrin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4583–4591, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4583-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4583-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Kling and Gupta efficiency (KGE) is a score used in hydrology to evaluate flow simulation compared to observations. In order to force the evaluation on the low flows, some authors used the log-transformed flow to calculate the KGE. In this technical note, we show that this transformation should be avoided because it produced numerical flaws that lead to difficulties in the score value interpretation.
Lei Chen, Shuang Li, Yucen Zhong, and Zhenyao Shen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4145–4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4145-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4145-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the cumulative distribution function approach (CDFA) and the Monte Carlo approach (MCA) were used to develop two new approaches for model evaluation within an uncertainty framework. These proposed methods could be extended to watershed models to provide a substitution for traditional model evaluations within an uncertainty framework.
Hui-Min Wang, Jie Chen, Alex J. Cannon, Chong-Yu Xu, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3739-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Facing a growing number of climate models, many selection methods were proposed to select subsets in the field of climate simulation, but the transferability of their performances to hydrological impacts remains doubtful. We investigate the transferability of climate simulation uncertainty to hydrological impacts using two selection methods, and conclude that envelope-based selection of about 10 climate simulations based on properly chosen climate variables is suggested for impact studies.
Andreas M. Jobst, Daniel G. Kingston, Nicolas J. Cullen, and Josef Schmid
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3125–3142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3125-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3125-2018, 2018
Lieke A. Melsen, Nans Addor, Naoki Mizukami, Andrew J. Newman, Paul J. J. F. Torfs, Martyn P. Clark, Remko Uijlenhoet, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1775–1791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Long-term hydrological predictions are important for water management planning, but are also prone to uncertainty. This study investigates three sources of uncertainty for long-term hydrological predictions in the US: climate models, hydrological models, and hydrological model parameters. Mapping the results revealed spatial patterns in the three sources of uncertainty: different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions.
Katrien Van Eerdenbrugh, Stijn Van Hoey, Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, and Niko E. C. Verhoest
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5315–5337, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5315-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Consistency in stage–discharge data is investigated using a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach). Various measurement stations in the UK, New Zealand and Belgium are selected based on their historical ratings information and their characteristics related to data consistency. When applying a BReach analysis on them, the methodology provides results that appear consistent with the available knowledge and thus facilitates a reliable assessment of (in)consistency in stage–discharge data.
Hadush K. Meresa and Renata J. Romanowicz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4245–4258, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4245-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Evaluation of the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the mountainous catchment was performed. The uncertainty of the estimate of 1-in-100-year return maximum flow based on the 1971–2100 time series exceeds 200 % of its median value with the largest influence of the climate model uncertainty, while the uncertainty of the 1-in-100-year return minimum flow is of the same order (i.e. exceeds 200 %) but it is mainly influenced by the hydrological model parameter uncertainty.
Omar Wani, Joost V. L. Beckers, Albrecht H. Weerts, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4021–4036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4021-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We generate uncertainty intervals for hydrologic model predictions using a simple instance-based learning scheme. Errors made by the model in some specific hydrometeorological conditions in the past are used to predict the probability distribution of its errors during forecasting. We test it for two different case studies in England. We find that this technique, even though conceptually simple and easy to implement, performs as well as some other sophisticated uncertainty estimation methods.
Christa Kelleher, Brian McGlynn, and Thorsten Wagener
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3325–3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3325-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3325-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Models are tools for understanding how watersheds function and may respond to land cover and climate change. Before we can use models towards these purposes, we need to ensure that a model adequately represents watershed-wide observations. In this paper, we propose a new way to evaluate whether model simulations match observations, using a variety of information sources. We show how this information can reduce uncertainty in inputs to models, reducing uncertainty in hydrologic predictions.
Gabriele Baroni, Matthias Zink, Rohini Kumar, Luis Samaniego, and Sabine Attinger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2301–2320, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2301-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2301-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Three methods are used to characterize the uncertainty in soil properties. The effect on simulated states and fluxes is quantified using a distributed hydrological model. Different impacts are identified as function of the perturbation method, of the model outputs and of the spatio-temporal resolution. The study underlines the importance of a proper characterization of the uncertainty in soil properties for a correct assessment of their role and further improvements in the model application.
Ji Li, Yangbo Chen, Huanyu Wang, Jianming Qin, Jie Li, and Sen Chiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1279-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1279-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Quantitative precipitation forecast produced by the WRF model has a similar pattern to that estimated by rain gauges in a southern China large watershed, hydrological model parameters should be optimized with QPF produced by WRF, and simulating floods by coupling the WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model provides a good reference for large watershed flood warning and could benefit the flood management communities due to its longer lead time.
Johanna I. F. Slaets, Hans-Peter Piepho, Petra Schmitter, Thomas Hilger, and Georg Cadisch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 571–588, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-571-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Determining measures of uncertainty on loads is not trivial, as a load is a product of concentration and discharge per time point, summed up over time. A bootstrap approach enables the calculation of confidence intervals on constituent loads. Ignoring the uncertainty on the discharge will typically underestimate the width of 95 % confidence intervals by around 10 %. Furthermore, confidence intervals are asymmetric, with the largest uncertainty on the upper limit.
David N. Dralle, Nathaniel J. Karst, Kyriakos Charalampous, Andrew Veenstra, and Sally E. Thompson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 65–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-65-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-65-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The streamflow recession is the period following rainfall during which flow declines. This paper examines a common method of recession analysis and identifies sensitivity of the technique's results to necessary, yet subjective, methodological choices. The results have implications for hydrology, sediment and solute transport, and geomorphology, as well as for testing numerous hydrologic theories which predict the mathematical form of the recession.
Simon Paul Seibert, Uwe Ehret, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3745–3763, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3745-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
While the assessment of "vertical" (magnitude) errors of streamflow simulations is standard practice, "horizontal" (timing) errors are rarely considered. To assess their role, we propose a method to quantify both errors simultaneously which closely resembles visual hydrograph comparison. Our results reveal differences in time–magnitude error statistics for different flow conditions. The proposed method thus offers novel perspectives for model diagnostics and evaluation.
Paul Hublart, Denis Ruelland, Inaki García de Cortázar-Atauri, Simon Gascoin, Stef Lhermitte, and Antonio Ibacache
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3691–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores the reliability of conceptual catchment models in the dry Andes. First, we show that explicitly accounting for irrigation water use improves streamflow predictions during dry years. Second, we show that sublimation losses can be easily incorporated into temperature-based melt models without increasing model complexity too much. Our work also highlights areas requiring additional research, including the need for a better conceptualization of runoff generation processes.
Stephen Oni, Martyn Futter, Jose Ledesma, Claudia Teutschbein, Jim Buttle, and Hjalmar Laudon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2811–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2811-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents an important framework to improve hydrologic projections in cold regions. Hydrologic modelling/projections are often based on model calibration to long-term data. Here we used dry and wet years as a proxy to quantify uncertainty in projecting hydrologic extremes. We showed that projections based on long-term data could underestimate runoff by up to 35% in boreal regions. We believe the hydrologic modelling community will benefit from new insights derived from this study.
Juraj Parajka, Alfred Paul Blaschke, Günter Blöschl, Klaus Haslinger, Gerold Hepp, Gregor Laaha, Wolfgang Schöner, Helene Trautvetter, Alberto Viglione, and Matthias Zessner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2085–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2085-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2085-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Streamflow estimation during low-flow conditions is important for estimation of environmental flows, effluent water quality, hydropower operations, etc. However, it is not clear how the uncertainties in assumptions used in the projections translate into uncertainty of estimated future low flows. The objective of the study is to explore the relative role of hydrologic model calibration and climate scenarios in the uncertainty of low-flow projections in Austria.
Susana Almeida, Nataliya Le Vine, Neil McIntyre, Thorsten Wagener, and Wouter Buytaert
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-887-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-887-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The absence of flow data to calibrate hydrologic models may reduce the ability of such models to reliably inform water resources management. To address this limitation, it is common to condition hydrological model parameters on regionalized signatures. In this study, we justify the inclusion of larger sets of signatures in the regionalization procedure if their error correlations are formally accounted for and thus enable a more complete use of all available information.
H. Xu and Y. Luo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4609–4618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4609-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4609-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantified the climate impact on river discharge in the River Huangfuchuan in semi-arid northern China and the River Xiangxi in humid southern China. Climate projections showed trends toward warmer and wetter conditions, particularly for the River Huangfuchuan. The main projected hydrologic impact was a more pronounced increase in annual discharge in both catchments. Peak flows are projected to appear earlier than usual in the River Huangfuchuan and later than usual in River Xiangxi.
I. K. Westerberg and H. K. McMillan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3951–3968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3951-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3951-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigated the effect of uncertainties in data and calculation methods on hydrological signatures. We present a widely applicable method to evaluate signature uncertainty and show results for two example catchments. The uncertainties were often large (i.e. typical intervals of ±10–40% relative uncertainty) and highly variable between signatures. It is therefore important to consider uncertainty when signatures are used for hydrological and ecohydrological analyses and modelling.
T. O. Sonnenborg, D. Seifert, and J. C. Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3891–3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3891-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3891-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model uncertainty on hydraulic head, stream flow, travel time and capture zones are evaluated. Six versions of a physically based and distributed hydrological model, each containing a unique interpretation of the geological structure of the model area, are forced by 11 climate model projections. Geology is the dominating uncertainty source for travel time and capture zones, while climate dominates for hydraulic heads and steam flow.
N. Dogulu, P. López López, D. P. Solomatine, A. H. Weerts, and D. L. Shrestha
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3181–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3181-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3181-2015, 2015
F. Bourgin, V. Andréassian, C. Perrin, and L. Oudin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2535-2015, 2015
T. Berezowski, J. Nossent, J. Chormański, and O. Batelaan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1887–1904, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1887-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1887-2015, 2015
F. Silvestro, S. Gabellani, R. Rudari, F. Delogu, P. Laiolo, and G. Boni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1727–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1727-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1727-2015, 2015
M. C. Demirel, M. J. Booij, and A. Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 275–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict runoff during low-flow periods using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90-day low-flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model. Overall, the uncertainty from ensemble P forecasts has a larger effect on seasonal low-flow forecasts than the uncertainty from ensemble PET forecasts and initial model conditions.
M. Honti, A. Scheidegger, and C. Stamm
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3301–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3301-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3301-2014, 2014
Cited articles
Adams, H. D., Williams, A. P., Chonggang, X., Rauscher, S. A., Jiang, X., and McDowell, N. G.: Empirical and process-based approaches to climate-induced forest mortality loads, Front. Plant. Sci., https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2013.00438, in press, 2013.
Akhtar, M., Ahmad, N., and Booij, M. J.: The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios, J. Hydrol., 355, 148–163, 2008.
Bangay, G. E.: Livestock and poultry wastes in the Great Lakes Basin. Environmental Concerns and Management Issues, Social Science Series No. 15, Environment Canada, Inland Waters Directorate, Ontario Region, Water planning and Management Branch, Burlington, Ontario, 1976.
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Nature, 438, 303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141, 2005.
Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S., and Palutikof, J. P. (Eds.): Climate Change and Water, Technical Paper VI of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland, 2008.
Bathurst, J. C. and O'Connell, P. E.: Future of distributed modelling: the Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, Hydrol. Process., 6, 265–277, 1992.
Baulch, H. M., Futter, M. N., Whitehead, P. G., Woods, D. T., Dillon, P. J., Butterfield, D. A., Oni, S. K., Aspden, L. P., O'Conner, E. M., and Crossman, J.: Phosphorus dynamics across intensively monitored subcatchments in the Beaver River, J. Inland Wat., 1, 187–206, 2013.
Borling, K.: Effects of long-term inorganic fertilisation of cultivated soils, Doctoral Thesis, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, 2003.
Burke, W.: Principles of drainage with special reference to peat, Irish Forestry, 24, 1–7, 1967.
Burke, W.: Aspects of the hydrology of blanket peat in Ireland. Hydrology of marsh-ridden areas. Proceedings of the Minsk symposium, June 1972, IAHS Studies and Reports in Hydrology 19, Unesco Press, Paris, 171–182, 1975.
Burt, T. P. and Pinay, G.: Linking hydrology and biogeochemistry in complex landscapes, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 29, 297–316, 2005.
Chorus, I. and Bartram, J. (Eds.): Toxic cyanobacteria in water – A guide to their public health consequences, E and FN Spon, London, England, 1999.
Collins, M., Booth, B. B. B., Harris, G. R., Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., and Webb, M. J.: Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change, Clim. Dynam., 27, 127–147, 2006.
Crossman, J., Futter, M. N., Oni, S. K., Whitehead, P. G., Jin, L., Butterfield, D., Baulch, H. M., and Dillon, P. J.: Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality: future proofing management strategies in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Canada, J. Great Lakes Res., 39, 19–32, 2013a.
Crossman, J., Futter, M. N., and Whitehead, P. G.: The significance of shifts in precipitation patterns: modelling the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on extreme flood events in Denali National Park, Alaska, PLOS ONE, 8, e74054, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0074054, 2013b.
Crossman, J., Whitehead, P. G., Futter, M. N., Jin, L., Shahgedanova, M., Castellazzi, M., and Wade, A. J.: The interactive responses of water quality and hydrology to changes in multiple stressors, and implications for the long-term effective management of phosphorus, Sci. Total Environ., 454–455, 230–244, 2013c.
Dunne, T. and Black, R. D.: Runoff processes during snowmelt, Water Resour. Res., 7, 1160–1172, 1971.
Environment Canada: Water survey of Canada, www.wsc.ec.gc.ca (last access: January 2014), 2013.
Evans, D. O.: Effects of hypoxia on scope-for-activity of lake trout: defining a new dissolved oxygen criterion for protection of lake trout habitat, Technical Report 2005-01, Aquatic Research and Development Section, Applied Research and Development Branch, Ministry of Natural Resources, Peterborough, Ontario, 2006.
Evans, D. O., Nicholls, K. H., Allen, Y. C., and McMurtry, M. J.: Historical land use, phosphorus loading, and loss of fish habitat in Lake Simcoe, Canada, Can. J. Fish Aquat. Sci., 53, 194–218, 1996.
Fournier, R. E., Morrison, I. K., and Hopkin, A. A.: Short range variability of soil chemistry in three acidic soils in Ontario, Canada, Commun. Soil Sci. Plan., 25, 3069–3082, 1994.
Futter, M. N., Forsius, M., Homberg, M., and Starr, M.: A long-term simulation of the effects of acidic deposition and climate change on surface water dissolved organic carbon concentrations in a boreal catchment, Hydrol. Res., 402, 291–305, 2009.
Gleik, P. H.: Climate change, hydrology, and water resources, Rev. Geophys., 27, 329–344, 1989.
Global LandCover Facility: Digital Elevation Model, Earth Science Data Interface, available at: http://www.landcover.org/ (last access: 1 March 2013), 2002.
Goddard, L. and Baethgen, W.: Better estimating uncertainty with realistic models, EOS, 90, 343–344, 2009.
Hamlet, A. F., Mote, P. W., Clark, M. P., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the Western United States, J. Climate, 18, 4545–4561, 2005.
Harris, A. R.: Infiltration rate as affected by soil freezing under three cover types, Am. Soc. Agron., 36, 489–492, 1972.
Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change, Clim. Dynam., 37, 407–418, 2011.
Hay, L .E., Wilby, R. L., and Leavesley, G. H.: A comparison of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for the three mountainous basins in the United States, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 36, 387–397, 2000.
Haygarth, P. M., Hepworth, L., and Jarvis, S. C.: Forms of phosphorus transfer in hydrological pathways from soil under grazed grassland, Eur. J. Soil Sci., 49, 65–72, 1998.
Heathwaite, A. L. and Dils, R. M.: Characterising phosphorus loss in surface and subsurface hydrological pathways, Sci. Total Environ., 25, 523–538, 2000.
Hooda, P. S., Moynaghm, M., Svoboda, F. I., Edwards, A. C., Anderson, H. A., and Sym, G.: Phosphorus loss in drainflow from intensively managed grassland soils, Am. Soc. Agron., 28, 1235–1242, 1999.
Huang, M.: Old and subsurface water contributions to storm runoff generation in flat, fractured, clayey terrain, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Windsor, Windsor, 1995.
IEESC – Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities: Producing High-Resolution (25 km by 25 km) Probabilistic Climate Change Projections over Ontario Using UK PRECIS, Report submitted to the Ontario Ministry of Environment, edited by: Huang, G. H., Wang, X. Q., Lin, Q. G., Yao, Y., Cheng, G. H., Fan, Y. R., Li, Z., Lv, Y., Han, J. C., Wang, S., Suo, M. Q., Dong, C., Chen, J. P., Chen, X. J., and Zhou, X., data available online at: http://env.uregina.ca/moe/ (last access: 25 July 2013), 2012.
Jarvie, H. P., Neal, C., Williams, R. J., Neal, M., Wickham, H., Hill, L. K., Wade, A. J., Warwick, A., and White, J.: Phosphorus sources, speciation and dynamics in a lowland eutrophic chalk river, Sci. Total Environ., 282–283, 203, 2002.
Jarvie, H. P., Neal, C., and Withers, P. J. A.: Sewage-effluent phosphorus: a greater risk to river eutrophication than agricultural phosphorus?, Sci. Total Environ., 282–283, 175–203, 2006.
Jin, L., Whitehead, P. G., Baulch, H. M., Dillon, P. J., Butterfield, D., Oni, S. K., Futter, M. N., Crossman, J., and O'Connor, E. M.: Modelling phosphorus in Lake Simcoe and its subcatchments: scenario analysis to assess alternative management strategies, J. Inland Wat., 3, 207–220, 2013.
Johnson, F. M.: The Landscape Ecology of the Lake Simcoe Basin, Lake Reserv. Manage., 13, 226–239, https://doi.org/10.1080/07438149709354313, 1997.
Jones, R. G., Noguer, M., Hassel, D. C., Hudson, D., Wilson, S. S., Jenkins, G. J., and Mitcehll, J. F. B.: Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, 1–40, 2004.
KMK Consultants: Schomberg Water Pollution Control Plant Class Environmental Assessment, Environmental Study Report, prepared for The Regional Municipality of York, Ontario, 2004.
Koski-Vähälä, J.: Role of resuspension and silicate in internal phosphorus loading. Dissertation in Limnology, Department of Limnology and Environmental Protection, Department of Applied Chemistry and Microbiology, University of Helskini, Helsinki, 2001.
Larssen, T., Høgåsen, T., Cosby, B. J.: Impact of time series data on calibration and prediction uncertainty for a deterministic hydrogeochemical model, Ecol Model., 207, 22–33, 2007.
Leavesley, G. H.: Modelling the effects of climate change on water resources – a review, Climatic Change, 28, 159–173, 1994.
Lenderink, G., Buishand, A., and van Deursen, W.: Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1145–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1145-2007, 2007.
Lepistö, A., Etheridge, J. R., Granlund, K., Kotamäki, N., Maulve, O., Rankinen, K., and Varjopuro, R.: Adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on European Freshwater Ecosystems, Deliverable 5.5 Report on the biophysical catchment-scale modelling of Yläneenjoki-Pyhäjärvi demonstration site, REFRESH EU Seventh Framework Programme, retrieved from: http://www.refresh.ucl.ac.uk/webfm_send/2161 (last access: 7 January 2014), 2013.
LSEMS – Lake Simcoe Environmental Management Strategy: Lake Simcoe: Our Waters, Our Heritage, in: Lake Simcoe environmental management strategy implementation program summary of phase I progress and recommendations for phase II, edited by: Heathcote, I., published by Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Environment and Energy and Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, available online at: http://agrienvarchive.ca/download/L-simcoe_our_waters_heritage95.pdf (last access: 25 June 2014), 1995.
LSEMS – Lake Simcoe Environmental Management Strategy: Flow and nutrient monitoring data supplied by Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, available to download from: http://www.lsrca.on.ca/programs/watershed_monitoring/system intro.php (last access: 15 December 2013), 2010.
Louis Berger Group Inc.: Estimation of the Phosphorus Loadings to Lake Simcoe, Final Report Submitted to Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, available for download at: http://www.lsrca.on.ca/pdf/reports/phosphorus_estimates_2010.pdf (last access: 11 July 2014), 2010.
LSRCA – Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority: Report on phosphorus loads to Lake Simcoe 2004–2007, Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, Ontario, 2009.
LSRCA – Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority: Routine Monitoring Data Strategy O'Connor, E. Personal Communication, 2010a.
LSRCA – Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, Holland River Subwatershed Plan, Durham Region, available for download at: http://www.lsrca.on.ca/pdf/reports/east_holland_subwatershed_2010.pdf (last access: 7 July 2014), 2010b.
LSRCA – Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority: Beaver River Subwatershed Plan, Durham Region, available for download at: http://www.lsrca.on.ca/pdf/reports/beaver_river_subwatershed_plan_2012.pdf (last access: 7 July 2014), 2012a.
LSRCA – Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority: Pefferlaw River Subwatershed Plan, Durham Region, available to download at: http://www.lsrca.on.ca/pdf/reports/pefferlaw_river_subwatershed_plan_2012.pdf (last access: 7 July 2014), 2012b.
Maskey, S., Guinot, V., and Prices, R. K.: Treatment of precipitation uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling: a fuzzy set approach, Adv. Water Resour., 27, 889–898, 2004.
McCollum, R. E.: Buildup and decline in soil phosphorus: 30-year trends on a Typic Umprabuult, Agron J., 83, 77–85, 1991.
McDowell, R. W., Sharpley, A. N., Condron, L. M., Haygarth, P. M., and Brookes, P. C.: Processes controlling soil phosphorus release to runoff and implications for agricultural management, Nut. Cycl. Agroecosys., 59, 269–284, 2001.
McLauchlan, K.: The nature and longevity of agricultural impacts on soil carbon and nutrients: a review, Ecosystems, 9, 1364–1382, 2006.
McSweeney, C. and Jones, R.: Selecting members of the 'QUMP' perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS, Met Office Hadley Centre, 2010.
Meehl, G. A. and Stocker, T. F.: Global climate projections in Climate Change: The Physical Science basis, in: Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Quin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, New York, 2007.
Miles, J.: The relationship between land use and forms of phosphorus in the Beaver River watershed of Lake Simcoe, Ontario, MSc Thesis in Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program, Trent University, Trent, 2012.
Nicholls, K. H.: Some Recent water quality trends in Lake Simcoe, Ontario: implications for basin planning and limnological research, Can. Water Resour. J., 20, 213–226, 1995.
Nicholls, K. H. and MacCrimmon, H. R.: Nutrient Loading to Cook Bay of Lake Simcoe from the Holland River Watershed, Int. Revue Ges. Hydrobiol., 60, 159–193, 1975.
Olding, A. B., Wicklund, R. E., and Richards, N. R.: Soil Survey of Ontario County, Report No. 23 of the Ontario Soil Survey, Experimental Farms Service, Canada Department of Agriculture, Ottawa, and the Ontario Agricultural College, Toronto, 1950.
OMAFRA – Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs: Agronomy Guide for Field Crops, available from: http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/pub811/1toc.htm (last access: 3 January 2014), 2009.
Oni, S. K., Futter, M. N., and Dillon, P. J.: Landscape-scale control of carbon budget of Lake Simcoe: A process based modelling approach, J. Great Lake Res., 37, 160–165, 2011.
Oni, S. K., Futter, M. N., Molot, L. A., and Dillon, P. J.: Adjacent catchments with similar patterns of land use and climate have markedly different dissolved organic carbon concentration and runoff dynamics, Hydrol. Process., 28, 1436–1449, 2014.
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources: Ecological Land Classification of Ontario, available for download at: https://www.javacoeapp.lrc.gov.on.ca/geonetwork/srv/en/main.home (last access: 15 January 2014), 2007.
Oreskes, N., Shrader-Frechette, K., and Belitz, K.: Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences, Science, 263, 641–646, 1994.
Paterson, A. M., Dillon, P. J., Hutchinson, N. J., Futter, M. N., Clark, B. J., Mills, R. B., Reid, R. A., and Scheider, W. A.: A review of the components, coefficients and technical assumptions of Ontario's Lakeshore Capacity Model, Lake Reserv. Manage., 22, 7–18, 2006.
Peltouvouri, T.: Phosphorus in agricultural soils of Finland – characterization of reserves and retention in mineral soil profiles, Pro Terra No. 26, Academic dissertation, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, 2006.
PGWMN – Provincial Groundwater Monitoring Network Program: Groundwater level data, groundwater chemistry data, and precipitation data, Ministry of Environment, available from the world wide web: https://www.javacoeapp.lrc.gov.on.ca/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=13677 (last access: 15 January 2014), 2012.
PWQMN – Provincial Water Quality Monitoring Network: Ministry of Environment, available for download at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/e/3/SelectingCGMsToDownscale.pdf (last access: 10 June 2014), 2009.
Ramwekellan, J., Gharabaghi, B., and Winter, J. G.: Application of weather radar in estimation of bulk atmospheric deposition of total phosphorus over Lake Simcoe, Can. Water Resour. J., 34, 37–60, 2009.
Regonda, S., Rajagopalan, B., Clark, M., and Pitlick, J.: Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the western United States, J. Climate, 18, 372–384, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3272.1, 2005.
Saelthun, N.: Nordic HBV Model, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy, Administration, Oslo, Norway, 1995.
Schlotzhauer, S. M. and Price, J. S.: Soil water flow dynamics in a managed cutover peat field, Quebec: Field and laboratory investigations, Water Resour. Res., 35, 3675–3686, 1999.
Scott, L. D., Winter, J. G., and Girard, R. E.: Annual water balances, total phosphorus budgets and total nitrogen and chloride loads for Lake Simcoe (1998–2004), Technical Report No. Imp. A. 6, Lake Simcoe Environmental Management Strategy Implementation Phase III, Ontario, Canada, 2006.
Seibert, J.: Esimation of parameter uncertainty in the HBV model, Nord. Hydrol., 28, 246–262, 1997.
Sharpley, A. N., Kleinman, P., and McDowell, R.: Innovative management of agricultural phosphorus to protect soil and water resources, Commun. Soil Sci. Plan., 32, 1071–1100, 2001.
Smith, G. J.: Deriving spatial patterns of severe rainfall in Southern Ontario from rain gauge and radar data, A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, 2010.
Smith, V. H.: Eutrophication of freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems, Environ. Sci. Poll. Res., 10, 126–139, 2003.
Soil Landscapes of Canada Working Group: Soil Lanscapes of Canada v.3.2, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2010.
Starrfelt, S. and Kaste, O.: Bayesian uncertainty assessment of a semi-distributed integrated catchment model of phosphorus transport, Environ. Sci. Process. Imp., 16, 1578–1587, 2014.
Statistics Canada: Farm and Operator Data, Census of Agriculture, 2011.
Stephens, S. L. S.: Optimizing agricultural and urban pollution remediation measures using watershed modeling: Review, calibration, validation and applications of the CANWET model in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Ontario, Canada, MS thesis, Trent University, Trent, 2007.
Teutschbein, C. and Seibert, J.: Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different models, J. Hydrol., 456–457, 12–29, 2012.
Thomas, R. L. and Sevean, G.: Leaching of phosphorus from the organic soils of the Holland Marsh, A report to the Ministry of Environment, Archive of Agri-Environmental Programs in Ontario, available for download at: http://agrienvarchive.ca/download/P_leaching_holland_marsh85.pdf (last access: 1 December 2014), 1985.
Uhlenbrook, S., Seibert, J., Leibundgut, C., and Rodhe, A.: Prediction uncertainty of conceptual rainfall-runoff models caused by problems in identifying model parameters and structure, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 44, 779–797, 1999.
UKCP – UK Climate Projections: Probability in UKCP09, available from: http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/21680 (last access: 24 October 2014), 2010.
UKCP – UK Climate Projections: Perturbed Physics Ensembles, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, available from: http://www.ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/23251 (last access: 3 January 2014), 2012.
Väänänen, R.: Phosphorus retention in forest soils and the functioning of buffer zones used in forestry, Dissertationes Forestales 60, Department of Forest Ecology, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, p. 42, 2008.
van den Hurk, B., Hirshci, M., Shcär, C., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., van Ulden, A., Rockel, B., Hagemann, S., Graham, P., Kjellström, E., and Jones, R.: Soil control on runoff response to climate change in regional climate model simulations, J. Climate, 18, 3536–3551, 2004.
van Roosmalen, L., Christensen, B. S. B., and Sonnenborg, T. O.: Regional differences in climate change impacts on groundwater and stream discharge in Denmark, Vadose Zone J., 6, 554–571, 2007.
Wade, A. J., Hornberger, G. M., Whitehead, P. G., Jarvie, H. P., and Flynn, N.: On modelling the mechanisms that control in-stream phosphorus, macrophyte, and epiphyte dynamics: an assessmemt of a new model using general sensitivity analysis, Water Resour. Res., 37, 2777–2792, 2001.
Wade, A. J., Whitehead, P. G., and Butterfield, D.: The Integrated Catchments model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), a new approach for multiple source assessment in heterogeneous river systems: model structure and equations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 583–606, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-6-583-2002, 2002a.
Wade, A. J., Whitehead, P. G., and O'Shea, L. C. M.: The prediction and management of aquatic nitrogen pollution across Europe: an introduction to the Integrated Nitrogen in European Catchments project (INCA), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 299–313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-6-299-2002, 2002b.
Wade, A. J., Butterfield, D., Lawrence, D. S., Bärlund, I., Durand, P., Lazar, A., and Kaste, O.: The integrated catchment model of phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), a new structure to simulate particulate and soluble phosphorus transport in European catchments, in: Diffuse Phosphorus Loss: Risk Assessment, Mitigation options and Ecological Effects in River Basins, 5th Int. Phosphorus Workshop (IPW5), 3–7 September 2007, Silkeborg, Denmark, Aarhus Universite, Aarhus, Heckrath, 2007a.
Wade, A. J., Butterfield, D., Griffiths, T., and Whitehead, P. G.: Eutrophication control in river-systems: an application of INCA-P to the River Lugg, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 584–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-584-2007, 2007b.
Westerman, P. W. and Overcash, M. R.: Short-term attenuation of runoff pollution potential for land-applied swine and poultry manure, in: Livestock waste – a renewable resource, Proceedings of the th International Symposium on Livestock Wastes, Am. Soc. Agric. Eng., St. Joseph, MI, 1980.
Whitehead, P. G., Wilby, R. L., Battarbee, R., Kernan, M., and Wade, A.: A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 54, 101–123, 2009.
Whitehead, P. G., Jin, L., Baulch, H. M., Butterfield, D., Oni, S. K., Dillon, P. J., Futter, M., Wade, A. J., North, R., O'Connor, E. M.. and Jarvie, H. P.: Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: a study of the Black River, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada, Sci. Total Environ., 412–413, 315–323, 2011.
Whitehead, P. G., Jin, L., Crossman, J., Comber, S., Johnes, P. J., Daldorph, P., Flynn, N., Collins, A. L., Butterfield, D., Mistry, R., Bardon, R., Pope, L., and Willows, R.: Distributed and dynamic modelling of hydrology, phosphorus and ecology in the Hampshire Avon and Blashford Lakes: evaluating alternative strategies to meet WFD standards, Sci. Total Environ., 481, 157–166, 2014.
Wilby, R. L. and Harris, I.: A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames UK, Water Resour. Res., 42, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004065, 2006.
Winter, J. G., Dillon, P. J., Futter, M. N., Nicholls, K. H., Wolfgang, A. S., and Scott, L. D.: Total phosphorus budgets and nitrogen loads: Lake Simcoe, Ontario (1990–1998), J. Great Lakes Res., 28, 301–314, 2002.
Winter, J. G., Eimers, M. C., Dillon, P. J., Scott, L. D., Scheider, W. A., and Campbell, C. W.: Phosphorus inputs to Lake Simcoe from 1990 to 2003: Declines in tributary loads and observations on Lake Water Quality, J. Great Lakes Res., 333, 381–396, 2007.
XCG Consultants: Review of Phosphorus Removal at Municipal Sewage Treatment Plants Discharging to the Lake Simcoe Watershed, Prepared for Water Environment Association of Ontario Lake Simcoe Clean-Up Fund, Environment Canada, Milton, Ontario, 2010.
Short summary
We projected potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments to a range of future climates. The highly variable responses in streamflow and total phosphorus (TP) were governed by geology and flow pathways, where larger catchment responses were proportional to greater soil clay content. This suggests clay content might be used as an indicator of catchment sensitivity to climate change, and highlights the need for catchment-specific management plans.
We projected potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments to a range of...
