Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 579–593, 2013
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-579-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 579–593, 2013
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-579-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 08 Feb 2013
Research article | 08 Feb 2013
Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output
D. E. Robertson et al.
Related authors
Ashley J. Wright, David E. Robertson, Jeffrey P. Walker, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-450, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper details the development of a methodology to optimize the weighting of rainfall gauges for hydrologic simulation. In particular, catchments with a low gauge density and/or proportion of observations available are not well suited to this methodology. Application of this methodology with models that are consistent with a conceptual understanding of the rainfall-runoff process yield improvements of 7.1 % in evaluation periods.
Stephen P. Charles, Quan J. Wang, Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad, Danial Hashmi, Andrew Schepen, Geoff Podger, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3533–3549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Predictions of irrigation-season water availability are important for water-limited Pakistan. We assess a Bayesian joint probability approach, using flow and climate indices as predictors, to produce streamflow forecasts for inflow to Pakistan's two largest dams. The approach produces skilful and reliable forecasts. As it is simple and quick to apply, it can be used to provide probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts that can inform Pakistan's water management.
Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Quan J. Wang, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1615–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall forecasts from dynamical global climate models (GCMs) require post-processing before use in hydrological models. Existing methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve calibrated forecasts of both daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. We develop a new statistical method to post-process Australian GCM rainfall forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments. Our method produces reliable forecasts and outperforms the most commonly used statistical method.
James C. Bennett, Quan J. Wang, David E. Robertson, Andrew Schepen, Ming Li, and Kelvin Michael
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6007–6030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We assess a new streamflow forecasting system in Australia. The system is designed to meet the need of water agencies for 12-month forecasts. The forecasts perform well in a wide range of rivers. Forecasts for shorter periods (up to 6 months) are generally informative. Forecasts sometimes did not perform well in a few very dry rivers. We test several techniques for improving streamflow forecasts in drylands, with mixed success.
Sean W. D. Turner, James C. Bennett, David E. Robertson, and Stefano Galelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4841–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the relationship between skill and value of ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Using data from a modern forecasting system, we show that skilled forecasts are more likely to provide benefits for reservoirs operated to maintain a target water level rather than reservoirs operated to satisfy a target demand. We identify the primary causes for this behaviour and provide specific recommendations for assessing the value of forecasts for reservoirs with supply objectives.
Ashley Wright, Jeffrey P. Walker, David E. Robertson, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3827–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate reduction of hydrologic model input data is an impediment towards understanding input uncertainty and model structural errors. This paper compares the ability of two transforms to reduce rainfall input data. The resultant transforms are compressed to varying extents and reconstructed before being evaluated with standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. It is concluded the discrete wavelet transform is most capable of preserving rainfall time series.
Ming Li, Q. J. Wang, James C. Bennett, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3561–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3561-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3561-2016, 2016
C. Alvarez-Garreton, D. Ryu, A. W. Western, C.-H. Su, W. T. Crow, D. E. Robertson, and C. Leahy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1659–1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We assimilate satellite soil moisture into a rainfall-runoff model for improving flood prediction within a data-scarce region. We argue that the spatially distributed satellite data can alleviate the model prediction limitations. We show that satellite soil moisture DA reduces the uncertainty of the streamflow ensembles. We propose new techniques for the DA scheme, including seasonal error characterisation, bias correction of the satellite retrievals, and model error representation.
M. Li, Q. J. Wang, J. C. Bennett, and D. E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1-2015, 2015
J. C. Bennett, Q. J. Wang, P. Pokhrel, and D. E. Robertson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 219–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-219-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-219-2014, 2014
D. E. Robertson, D. L. Shrestha, and Q. J. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3587–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3587-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3587-2013, 2013
D. L. Shrestha, D. E. Robertson, Q. J. Wang, T. C. Pagano, and H. A. P. Hapuarachchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1913–1931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1913-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1913-2013, 2013
P. Pokhrel, D. E. Robertson, and Q. J. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 795–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-795-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-795-2013, 2013
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Andrew W. Western, Wenyan Wu, Yawen Shao, and Kirsti Hakala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-494, 2021
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of evaporative water loss in the future are highly valuable for water resource management. These forecasts are often produced using outputs of climate models. We developed an innovative method to correct errors in these forecasts, particularly the errors caused by deficiencies of climate models in modeling the changing climate. We apply this method to seasonal forecasts of evaporative water loss across Australia and achieve significant improvements in forecast quality.
Qichun Yang, Quan J. Wang, Kirsti Hakala, and Yating Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4773–4788, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4773-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4773-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of water losses from land surface to the air are highly valuable for water resource management and planning. In this study, we aim to fill a critical knowledge gap in the forecasting of evaporative water loss. Model experiments across Australia clearly suggest the necessity of correcting errors in input variables for more reliable water loss forecasting. We anticipate that the strategy developed in our work will benefit future water loss forecasting and lead to more skillful forecasts.
Suwash Chandra Acharya, Rory Nathan, Quan J. Wang, Chun-Hsu Su, and Nathan Eizenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2951–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2951-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2951-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
BARRA is a high-resolution reanalysis dataset over the Oceania region. This study evaluates the performance of sub-daily BARRA precipitation at point and spatial scales over Australia. We find that the dataset reproduces some of the sub-daily characteristics of precipitation well, although it exhibits some spatial displacement errors, and it performs better in temperate than in tropical regions. The product is well suited to complement other estimates derived from remote sensing and rain gauges.
Ashley J. Wright, David E. Robertson, Jeffrey P. Walker, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-450, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-450, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper details the development of a methodology to optimize the weighting of rainfall gauges for hydrologic simulation. In particular, catchments with a low gauge density and/or proportion of observations available are not well suited to this methodology. Application of this methodology with models that are consistent with a conceptual understanding of the rainfall-runoff process yield improvements of 7.1 % in evaluation periods.
Suwash Chandra Acharya, Rory Nathan, Quan J. Wang, Chun-Hsu Su, and Nathan Eizenberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3387–3403, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3387-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3387-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
BARRA is a novel regional reanalysis for Australia. Our research demonstrates that it is able to characterize a rich spatial variation in daily precipitation behaviour. In addition, its ability to represent large rainfalls is valuable for the analysis of extremes. It is a useful complement to existing precipitation datasets for Australia, especially in sparsely gauged regions.
Stephen P. Charles, Quan J. Wang, Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad, Danial Hashmi, Andrew Schepen, Geoff Podger, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3533–3549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Predictions of irrigation-season water availability are important for water-limited Pakistan. We assess a Bayesian joint probability approach, using flow and climate indices as predictors, to produce streamflow forecasts for inflow to Pakistan's two largest dams. The approach produces skilful and reliable forecasts. As it is simple and quick to apply, it can be used to provide probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts that can inform Pakistan's water management.
Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Quan J. Wang, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1615–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall forecasts from dynamical global climate models (GCMs) require post-processing before use in hydrological models. Existing methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve calibrated forecasts of both daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. We develop a new statistical method to post-process Australian GCM rainfall forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments. Our method produces reliable forecasts and outperforms the most commonly used statistical method.
James C. Bennett, Quan J. Wang, David E. Robertson, Andrew Schepen, Ming Li, and Kelvin Michael
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6007–6030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6007-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We assess a new streamflow forecasting system in Australia. The system is designed to meet the need of water agencies for 12-month forecasts. The forecasts perform well in a wide range of rivers. Forecasts for shorter periods (up to 6 months) are generally informative. Forecasts sometimes did not perform well in a few very dry rivers. We test several techniques for improving streamflow forecasts in drylands, with mixed success.
Sean W. D. Turner, James C. Bennett, David E. Robertson, and Stefano Galelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4841–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the relationship between skill and value of ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Using data from a modern forecasting system, we show that skilled forecasts are more likely to provide benefits for reservoirs operated to maintain a target water level rather than reservoirs operated to satisfy a target demand. We identify the primary causes for this behaviour and provide specific recommendations for assessing the value of forecasts for reservoirs with supply objectives.
Ashley Wright, Jeffrey P. Walker, David E. Robertson, and Valentijn R. N. Pauwels
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3827–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3827-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate reduction of hydrologic model input data is an impediment towards understanding input uncertainty and model structural errors. This paper compares the ability of two transforms to reduce rainfall input data. The resultant transforms are compressed to varying extents and reconstructed before being evaluated with standard simulation performance summary metrics and descriptive statistics. It is concluded the discrete wavelet transform is most capable of preserving rainfall time series.
Andrew Schepen, Tongtiegang Zhao, Q. J. Wang, Senlin Zhou, and Paul Feikema
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4117–4128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Australian seasonal streamflow forecasts are issued by the Bureau of Meteorology with up to two weeks' delay. Timelier forecast release will enhance forecast value and enable sub-seasonal forecasting. The bureau's forecasting approach is modified to allow timelier forecast release, and changes in reliability and skill are quantified. The results are combined with insights into the forecast production process to recommend a more flexible forecasting system to better meet the needs of users.
Ming Li, Q. J. Wang, James C. Bennett, and David E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3561–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3561-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3561-2016, 2016
C. Alvarez-Garreton, D. Ryu, A. W. Western, C.-H. Su, W. T. Crow, D. E. Robertson, and C. Leahy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1659–1676, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1659-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We assimilate satellite soil moisture into a rainfall-runoff model for improving flood prediction within a data-scarce region. We argue that the spatially distributed satellite data can alleviate the model prediction limitations. We show that satellite soil moisture DA reduces the uncertainty of the streamflow ensembles. We propose new techniques for the DA scheme, including seasonal error characterisation, bias correction of the satellite retrievals, and model error representation.
M. Li, Q. J. Wang, J. C. Bennett, and D. E. Robertson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1-2015, 2015
J. C. Bennett, Q. J. Wang, P. Pokhrel, and D. E. Robertson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 219–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-219-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-219-2014, 2014
D. E. Robertson, D. L. Shrestha, and Q. J. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3587–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3587-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3587-2013, 2013
D. L. Shrestha, D. E. Robertson, Q. J. Wang, T. C. Pagano, and H. A. P. Hapuarachchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1913–1931, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1913-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1913-2013, 2013
P. Pokhrel, D. E. Robertson, and Q. J. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 795–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-795-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-795-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Rainfall-induced shallow landslides and soil wetness: comparison of physically based and probabilistic predictions
Land use and climate change effects on water yield from East African forested water towers
Easy-to-use spatial random-forest-based downscaling-calibration method for producing precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy
Improved parameterization of snow albedo in Noah coupled with Weather Research and Forecasting: applicability to snow estimates for the Tibetan Plateau
A 10 km North American precipitation and land-surface reanalysis based on the GEM atmospheric model
Contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region
Impacts of land use and land cover change and reforestation on summer rainfall in the Yangtze River basin
Mass balance and hydrological modeling of the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in south-central Norway
Flexible and Consistent Quantile Estimation for Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves
Long-term relative decline in evapotranspiration with increasing runoff on fractional land surfaces
Decision tree-based detection of blowing snow events in the European Alps
Changes in the simulation of atmospheric instability over the Iberian Peninsula due to the use of 3DVAR data assimilation
Simulating the evolution of the topography–climate coupled system
Using data assimilation to optimize pedotransfer functions using field-scale in situ soil moisture observations
Impact of frozen soil processes on soil thermal characteristics at seasonal to decadal scales over the Tibetan Plateau and North China
The development and persistence of soil moisture stress during drought across southwestern Germany
Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology
Improving soil moisture prediction of a high-resolution land surface model by parameterising pedotransfer functions through assimilation of SMAP satellite data
Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean area: contrasting Lagrangian and Eulerian models for moisture sources identification
Evaluation of Asian summer precipitation in different configurations of a high-resolution GCM at a range of decision-relevant spatial scales
Evaluating a land surface model at a water-limited site: implications for land surface contributions to droughts and heatwaves
A two-stage blending approach for merging multiple satellite precipitation estimates and rain gauge observations: an experiment in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau
Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting
Machine learning methods to assess the effects of a non-linear damage spectrum taking into account soil moisture on winter wheat yields in Germany
Developing a hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system for South and Southeast Asian river basins
Simulation analysis of local land atmosphere coupling in rainy season over a typical underlying surface in the Tibetan Plateau
Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming
Last-decade progress in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the Tibetan Plateau
On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchment
Accelerated hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region induces more streamflow extremes at different global warming levels
Contrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010
Technical note: Precipitation-phase partitioning at landscape scales to regional scales
Data assimilation for continuous global assessment of severe conditions over terrestrial surfaces
A coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modeling system with variable grid sizes for rainfall–runoff simulation in semi-humid and semi-arid watersheds: how does the coupling scale affects the results?
Assessment and projection of the water budget over western Canada using convection-permitting weather research and forecasting simulations
Climate-dependent propagation of precipitation uncertainty into the water cycle
A meteorological–hydrological regional ensemble forecast for an early-warning system over small Apennine catchments in Central Italy
Bias in dynamically downscaled rainfall characteristics for hydroclimatic projections
Impact of downscaled rainfall biases on projected runoff changes
Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs
Uncovering the shortcomings of a weather typing method
High-resolution fully coupled atmospheric–hydrological modeling: a cross-compartment regional water and energy cycle evaluation
Tracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture and associated uncertainties
Assessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basins
Revisiting extreme precipitation amounts over southern South America and implications for the Patagonian Icefields
Influence of multidecadal variability on high and low flows: the case of the Seine basin
Technical Note: Evaluation of the skill in monthly-to-seasonal soil moisture forecasting based on SMAP satellite observations over the southeastern US
Comparison of probabilistic post-processing approaches for improving numerical weather prediction-based daily and weekly reference evapotranspiration forecasts
The impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over complex mountainous terrain
Multimodel simulation of vertical gas transfer in a temperate lake
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5937–5950, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5937-2021, 2021
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Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open-access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5641–5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5641-2021, 2021
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East African water towers (WTs) are under pressure from human influences within and without, but the water yield (WY) is more sensitive to climate changes from within. Land use changes have greater impacts on WY in the surrounding lowlands. The WTs have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions while, at the same time, the potential evapotranspiration is gradually increasing. The WTs were identified as non-resilient, and future WY may experience more extreme variations.
Chuanfa Chen, Baojian Hu, and Yanyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5667–5682, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5667-2021, 2021
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This study proposes an easy-to-use downscaling-calibration method based on a spatial random forest with the incorporation of high-resolution variables. The proposed method is general, robust, accurate and easy to use as it shows more accurate results than the classical methods in the study area with heterogeneous terrain morphology and precipitation. It can be easily applied to other regions where precipitation data with high resolution and high accuracy are urgently required.
Lian Liu, Yaoming Ma, Massimo Menenti, Rongmingzhu Su, Nan Yao, and Weiqiang Ma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4967–4981, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4967-2021, 2021
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Albedo is a key factor in land surface energy balance, which is difficult to successfully reproduce by models. Here, we select eight snow events on the Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the universal improvements of our improved albedo scheme. The RMSE relative reductions for temperature, albedo, sensible heat flux and snow depth reach 27%, 32%, 13% and 21%, respectively, with remarkable increases in the correlation coefficients. This presents a strong potential of our scheme for modeling snow events.
Nicolas Gasset, Vincent Fortin, Milena Dimitrijevic, Marco Carrera, Bernard Bilodeau, Ryan Muncaster, Étienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Nedka Pentcheva, Maxim Bulat, Xihong Wang, Radenko Pavlovic, Franck Lespinas, Dikra Khedhaouiria, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4917–4945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4917-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we highlight the importance of including land-data assimilation as well as offline precipitation analysis components in a regional reanalysis system. We also document the performance of the first multidecadal 10 km reanalysis performed with the GEM atmospheric model that can be used for seamless land-surface and hydrological modelling in North America. It is of particular interest for transboundary basins, as existing datasets often show discontinuities at the border.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Hui Peng, Shangbin Xiao, and Denghua Yan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4759–4772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4759-2021, 2021
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Precipitation change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) plays a critical role in the operation and regulation of the Three Gorges Dam and the protection of residents and properties. We investigated the long-term contribution of moisture sources to precipitation changes in this region with an atmospheric moisture tracking model. We found that southwestern source regions (especially the southeastern tip of the Tibetan Plateau) are the key regions that control TGRR precipitation changes.
Wei Li, Lu Li, Jie Chen, Qian Lin, and Hua Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4531–4548, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4531-2021, 2021
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Reforestation can influence climate, but the sensitivity of summer rainfall to reforestation is rarely investigated. We take two reforestation scenarios to assess the impacts of reforestation on summer rainfall under different reforestation proportions and explore the potential mechanisms. This study concludes that reforestation increases summer rainfall amount and extremes through thermodynamics processes, and the effects are more pronounced in populated areas than over the whole basin.
Trude Eidhammer, Adam Booth, Sven Decker, Lu Li, Michael Barlage, David Gochis, Roy Rasmussen, Kjetil Melvold, Atle Nesje, and Stefan Sobolowski
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4275–4297, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4275-2021, 2021
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We coupled a detailed snow–ice model (Crocus) to represent glaciers in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model and tested it on a well-studied glacier. Several observational systems were used to evaluate the system, i.e., satellites, ground-penetrating radar (used over the glacier for snow depth) and stake observations for glacier mass balance and discharge measurements in rivers from the glacier. Results showed improvements in the streamflow projections when including the model.
Felix S. Fauer, Jana Ulrich, Oscar E. Jurado, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-334, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-334, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Extreme rainfall events are modeled in this study for different time scales. A new parametrization of the dependence between extreme values and their time scale enables our model to estimate extremes on very short (1 minute) and long (5 days) time scales at the same time. We compare different approaches of modeling this dependence and find that our new model improves performance for time scales between 2 hours and 2 days without affecting model performance on other time scales.
Ren Wang, Pierre Gentine, Jiabo Yin, Lijuan Chen, Jianyao Chen, and Longhui Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3805–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3805-2021, 2021
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Assessment of changes in the global water cycle has been a challenge. This study estimated long-term global latent heat and sensible heat fluxes for recent decades using machine learning and ground observations. The results found that the decline in evaporative fraction was typically accompanied by an increase in long-term runoff in over 27.06 % of the global land areas. The observation-driven findings emphasized that surface vegetation has great impacts in regulating water and energy cycles.
Zhipeng Xie, Weiqiang Ma, Yaoming Ma, Zeyong Hu, Genhou Sun, Yizhe Han, Wei Hu, Rongmingzhu Su, and Yixi Fan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3783–3804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3783-2021, 2021
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Ground information on the occurrence of blowing snow has been sorely lacking because direct observations of blowing snow are sparse in time and space. In this paper, we investigated the potential capability of the decision tree model to detect blowing snow events in the European Alps. Trained with routine meteorological observations, the decision tree model can be used as an efficient tool to detect blowing snow occurrences across different regions requiring limited meteorological variables.
Santos J. González-Rojí, Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia, Jon Sáenz, and Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3471–3492, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3471-2021, 2021
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The simulation of precipitation extreme events is a known problem in modelling. That is why the atmospheric conditions favourable for its development as simulated by two WRF experiments are evaluated in this paper. The experiment including 3DVAR data assimilation outperforms the one without in simulating the TT index, CAPE, and CIN over the Iberian Peninsula. The ingredients for convective precipitation in winter are found at the Atlantic coast, but in summer they are at the Mediterranean coast.
Kyungrock Paik and Won Kim
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2459–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2459-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2459-2021, 2021
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Climate, topography, and tectonics evolve together. To simulate their co-evolution, a fully coupled computer simulation model between local climate and topography is developed in this study. We simulated how the mountain development enhances local rainfall and its feedback on topography through stronger erosion. We found that the evolution of the coupled system can be more complicated than previously thought. The channel concavity on the windward side becomes lower as the wind grows.
Elizabeth Cooper, Eleanor Blyth, Hollie Cooper, Rich Ellis, Ewan Pinnington, and Simon J. Dadson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2445–2458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2445-2021, 2021
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Soil moisture estimates from land surface models are important for forecasting floods, droughts, weather, and climate trends. We show that by combining model estimates of soil moisture with measurements from field-scale, ground-based sensors, we can improve the performance of the land surface model in predicting soil moisture values.
Qian Li, Yongkang Xue, and Ye Liu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2089–2107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2089-2021, 2021
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Most land surface models have difficulty in capturing the freeze–thaw cycle in the Tibetan Plateau and North China. This paper introduces a physically more realistic and efficient frozen soil module (FSM) into the SSiB3 model (SSiB3-FSM). A new and more stable semi-implicit scheme and a physics-based freezing–thawing scheme were applied, and results show that SSiB3-FSM can be used as an effective model for soil thermal characteristics at seasonal to decadal scales over frozen ground.
Erik Tijdeman and Lucas Menzel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2009-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2009-2021, 2021
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Low amounts of soil moisture (SM) in the root zone negatively affect crop health. We characterized the development and duration of SM stress across the croplands of southwestern Germany. Development time mainly varied within drought years and was related to the available water-holding capacity of the root zone. Duration varied both within and between drought years and was especially high in 2018. Sensitivity analyses showed that (controls on) SM stress and SM drought characteristics differ.
Chris M. DeBeer, Howard S. Wheater, John W. Pomeroy, Alan G. Barr, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Jill F. Johnstone, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ronald E. Stewart, Masaki Hayashi, Garth van der Kamp, Shawn Marshall, Elizabeth Campbell, Philip Marsh, Sean K. Carey, William L. Quinton, Yanping Li, Saman Razavi, Aaron Berg, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, Christopher Spence, Warren D. Helgason, Andrew M. Ireson, T. Andrew Black, Mohamed Elshamy, Fuad Yassin, Bruce Davison, Allan Howard, Julie M. Thériault, Kevin Shook, Michael N. Demuth, and Alain Pietroniro
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1849–1882, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021, 2021
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This article examines future changes in land cover and hydrological cycling across the interior of western Canada under climate conditions projected for the 21st century. Key insights into the mechanisms and interactions of Earth system and hydrological process responses are presented, and this understanding is used together with model application to provide a synthesis of future change. This has allowed more scientifically informed projections than have hitherto been available.
Ewan Pinnington, Javier Amezcua, Elizabeth Cooper, Simon Dadson, Rich Ellis, Jian Peng, Emma Robinson, Ross Morrison, Simon Osborne, and Tristan Quaife
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1617–1641, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1617-2021, 2021
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Land surface models are important tools for translating meteorological forecasts and reanalyses into real-world impacts at the Earth's surface. We show that the hydrological predictions, in particular soil moisture, of these models can be improved by combining them with satellite observations from the NASA SMAP mission to update uncertain parameters. We find a 22 % reduction in error at a network of in situ soil moisture sensors after combining model predictions with satellite observations.
Sara Cloux, Daniel Garaboa-Paz, Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-651, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-651, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Here we present a comparison between two complex methodologies for the quantification of moisture sources in two extreme precipitation events. By using a Lagrangian model (FLEXPART-WRF) and considering the results provided by the previously performed Eulerian analysis, the results show that for the closest sources, the results obtained with both methods have in general a remarkable agreement. However, the contribution of tropical and subtropical areas is largely underestimated by FLEXPART-WRF.
Mark R. Muetzelfeldt, Reinhard Schiemann, Andrew G. Turner, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Pier Luigi Vidale, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-652, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Simulating East-Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall poses many challenges because of its multi-scale nature. We evaluate 3 setups of a 14-km global climate model against observations to see if they improve simulated rainfall. We do this over catchment basins of different sizes to estimate how model performance depends on spatial scale. Using explicit convection improves rainfall diurnal cycle, yet more model tuning is needed to improve mean and intensity biases in simulated summer rainfall.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Teresa E. Gimeno, Belinda E. Medlyn, Dani Or, Jinyan Yang, and David S. Ellsworth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 447–471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-447-2021, 2021
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Land surface model (LSM) is a critical tool to study land responses to droughts and heatwaves, but lacking comprehensive observations limited past model evaluations. Here we use a novel dataset at a water-limited site, evaluate a typical LSM with a range of competing model hypotheses widely used in LSMs and identify marked uncertainty due to the differing process assumptions. We show the extensive observations constrain model processes and allow better simulated land responses to these extremes.
Yingzhao Ma, Xun Sun, Haonan Chen, Yang Hong, and Yinsheng Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-359-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-359-2021, 2021
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A two-stage blending approach is proposed for the data fusion of multiple satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs), which firstly reduces the systematic errors of original SPEs based on a Bayesian correction model and then merges the bias-corrected SPEs with a Bayesian weighting model. The model is evaluated in the warm season of 2010–2014 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Results show that the blended SPE is greatly improved compared with the original SPEs, even in heavy rainfall events.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
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European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Michael Peichl, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Hansjürgens, and Andreas Marx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-9, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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A statistical model that can account for complex systems is used to identify the main factors affecting wheat yield in Germany. In many parts of Germany, the main adverse effect is caused by too much soil water in spring. Yield losses in northeastern Germany are related to soil moisture drought. Meteorological effects such as heat do not seem to play a prominent role. Furthermore, the model is able to explain both exceptionally high yields (2014) and yields in very high loss years (2003, 2018).
Yifan Zhou, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, Sujay V. Kumar, Kristi R. Arsenault, Mir A. Matin, Faisal M. Qamer, Ryan A. Zamora, and Kiran Shakya
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-41-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-41-2021, 2021
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South and Southeast Asia face significant food insecurity and hydrological hazards. Here we introduce a South and Southeast Asia hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S) to help local governments and decision-makers prepare for extreme hydroclimatic events. The monitoring system captures soil moisture variability well in most regions, and the forecasting system offers skillful prediction of soil moisture variability 2–3 months in advance, on average.
Genhou Sun, Zeyong Hu, Yaoming Ma, Zhipeng Xie, Jiemin Wang, and Song Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5937–5951, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5937-2020, 2020
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We investigate the influence of soil conditions on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) thermodynamics and convective cloud formations over a typical underlying surface, based on a series of simulations on a sunny day in the Tibetan Plateau, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The real-case simulation and sensitivity simulations indicate that the soil moisture could have a strong impact on PBL thermodynamics, which may be favorable for the convective cloud formations.
Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5799–5820, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020, 2020
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We examine changes in hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming. Our results indicate consistent changes in temperature extremes and high precipitation (and maximum runoff) extremes across Asia. Extra 0.5 °C warming will lead to enhanced regional hydroclimatic extremes, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. However, hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and types of extreme variables.
Hui Lu, Donghai Zheng, Kun Yang, and Fan Yang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5745–5758, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5745-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5745-2020, 2020
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The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the Asian water tower, plays an important role in the regional climate system, while the land surface process is a key component through which the TP impacts the water and energy cycles. In this paper, we reviewed the progress achieved in the last decade in understanding and modeling the land surface processes on the TP. Based on this review, perspectives on the further improvement of land surface modelling on the TP are also provided.
Maxime Jay-Allemand, Pierre Javelle, Igor Gejadze, Patrick Arnaud, Pierre-Olivier Malaterre, Jean-Alain Fine, and Didier Organde
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5519–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, 2020
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This study contributes to flash flood prediction using a hydrological model. The model describes the spatial properties of the watersheds with hundreds of unknown parameters. The Gardon d'Anduze watershed is chosen as the study benchmark. A sophisticated numerical algorithm and the downstream discharge measurements make the identification of the model parameters possible. Results provide better model predictions and relevant spatial variability of some parameters inside this watershed.
Peng Ji, Xing Yuan, Feng Ma, and Ming Pan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5439–5451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020, 2020
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By performing high-resolution land surface modeling driven by the latest CMIP6 climate models, we find both the dry streamflow extreme over the drought-prone Yellow River headwater and the wet streamflow extreme over the flood-prone Yangtze River headwater will increase under 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C global warming levels and emphasize the importance of considering ecological changes (i.e., vegetation greening and CO2 physiological forcing) in the hydrological projection.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
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The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Elissa Lynn, Aaron Cuthbertson, Minxue He, Jordi P. Vasquez, Michael L. Anderson, Peter Coombe, John T. Abatzoglou, and Benjamin J. Hatchett
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5317–5328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5317-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5317-2020, 2020
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Precipitation partitioning across western US landscapes (1948–present) is estimated by combining gridded precipitation data with freezing level and precipitation data from an atmospheric reanalysis. Spatial patterns and trends in the precipitation phase over elevational and latitudinal gradients are examined. The largest increases in precipitation falling as rain occur during spring. This technique can be used as a diagnostic indicator to inform adaptive water management strategy development.
Clément Albergel, Yongjun Zheng, Bertrand Bonan, Emanuel Dutra, Nemesio Rodríguez-Fernández, Simon Munier, Clara Draper, Patricia de Rosnay, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Gianpaolo Balsamo, David Fairbairn, Catherine Meurey, and Jean-Christophe Calvet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4291-2020, 2020
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LDAS-Monde is a global offline land data assimilation system (LDAS) that jointly assimilates satellite-derived observations of surface soil moisture (SSM) and leaf area index (LAI) into the ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) land surface model (LSM). This study demonstrates that LDAS-Monde is able to detect, monitor and forecast the impact of extreme weather on land surface states.
Jiyang Tian, Jia Liu, Yang Wang, Wei Wang, Chuanzhe Li, and Chunqi Hu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3933–3949, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3933-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3933-2020, 2020
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The aim of this study is to explore the appropriate coupling scale of the coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modeling system, which is established by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the gridded Hebei model with different sizes. The results show that the flood simulation results may not always be improved with higher-dimension precision and a more complicated system, and the grid size selection has a strong relationship with the rainfall evenness.
Sopan Kurkute, Zhenhua Li, Yanping Li, and Fei Huo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3677–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3677-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3677-2020, 2020
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Our research has analyzed the surface water budget and atmospheric water vapour budget over western Canada from a set of convection-permitting regional climate simulations. The pseudo-global-warming simulation shows a great increase in evapotranspiration and an enhanced water cycle. We found that the orographic effect on the water vapour budget is significant over the Saskatchewan River basin, indicating the need for high-resolution regional climate modelling to reflect the effects.
Ali Fallah, Sungmin O, and Rene Orth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3725–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3725-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3725-2020, 2020
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We find that simulated runoff values are highly dependent on the accuracy of precipitation inputs. In contrast, simulated evapotranspiration is generally much less influenced in our comparatively wet study region. We also find that the impact of precipitation uncertainty on simulated runoff increases towards wetter regions, while the opposite is observed in the case of evapotranspiration.
Rossella Ferretti, Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Valentina Colaiuda, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Ida Maiello, Marco Verdecchia, and Gianluca Redaelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3135–3156, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3135-2020, 2020
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Floods and severe rainfall are among the major natural hazards in the Mediterranean basin. Though precipitation weather forecasts have improved considerably, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can deteriorate the hydrological forecast. To improve hydrological forecasting, a regional-scale meteorological–hydrological ensemble is presented. This allows for predicting potential severe events days in advance and for characterizing the uncertainty of the hydrological forecast.
Nicholas J. Potter, Francis H. S. Chiew, Stephen P. Charles, Guobin Fu, Hongxing Zheng, and Lu Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2963–2979, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2963-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2963-2020, 2020
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There is a growing need for information about possible changes to water resource availability in the future due to climate change. Large-scale outputs from global climate models need to be translated to finer-resolution spatial scales before hydrological modelling. Biases in this downscaled data often need to be corrected. We show that usual bias correction methods can retain residual biases in multi-day occurrences of rainfall, which can result in biases in modelled runoff.
Stephen P. Charles, Francis H. S. Chiew, Nicholas J. Potter, Hongxing Zheng, Guobin Fu, and Lu Zhang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2981–2997, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2981-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2981-2020, 2020
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This paper assesses the suitability of bias-corrected (BC) WRF daily rainfall across the state of Victoria, Australia, for input to hydrological models to determine plausible climate change impacts on runoff. It compares rainfall and runoff changes using BC WRF with those obtained from empirical scaling (ES) using raw WRF changes. It concludes that BC-derived changes are more plausible than ES-derived changes but that remaining biases in BC WRF daily data add uncertainty to runoff projections.
Yuting Yang, Shulei Zhang, Michael L. Roderick, Tim R. McVicar, Dawen Yang, Wenbin Liu, and Xiaoyan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2921–2930, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020, 2020
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Many previous studies using offline drought indices report that future warming will increase worldwide drought. However, this contradicts observations/projections of vegetation greening and increased runoff. We resolved this paradox by re-calculating the same drought indices using direct climate model outputs and find no increase in future drought as the climate warms. We also find that accounting for the impact of CO2 on plant transpiration avoids the previous overestimation of drought.
Els Van Uytven, Jan De Niel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2671–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2671-2020, 2020
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In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs. Each statistical downscaling method has strengths and limitations, but those are rarely evaluated. This paper illustrates an approach to evaluating the skill of statistical downscaling methods for the specific purpose of impact analysis in hydrology.
Benjamin Fersch, Alfonso Senatore, Bianca Adler, Joël Arnault, Matthias Mauder, Katrin Schneider, Ingo Völksch, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2457–2481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2457-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2457-2020, 2020
Obbe A. Tuinenburg and Arie Staal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2419–2435, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2419-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2419-2020, 2020
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Several models exist to track water through the atmosphere from its evaporation location to the next rain location. These models are typically driven by atmospheric wind and humidity data. Recently, a new version of these driving data sets has become available, with a higher spatial resolution of about 25 km. Here, we test the assumptions of these atmospheric moisture tracking models, given the high-resolution forcing data and find that the vertical mixing assumptions are the most important.
Vincent Vionnet, Vincent Fortin, Etienne Gaborit, Guy Roy, Maria Abrahamowicz, Nicolas Gasset, and John W. Pomeroy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2141–2165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2141-2020, 2020
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The 2013 Alberta flood in Canada was typical of late-spring floods in mountain basins combining intense precipitation with rapid melting of late-lying snowpack. Hydrological simulations of this event are mainly influenced by (i) the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing due to the best estimate of precipitation at the kilometer scale and changes in turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt and (ii) uncertainties in initial snow conditions at high elevations. Soil texture has less impact.
Tobias Sauter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2003-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2003-2020, 2020
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Patagonia is thought to be one of the wettest – if not the wettest – places on Earth. The plausibility of these numbers has never been carefully scrutinized, despite the significance of this topic to our understanding of observed environmental changes, such as glacier recession. The revised precipitation values are significantly smaller than the previously reported values, thus opening up a new perspective on the Patagonian glaciers' response to climate change.
Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, and Florence Habets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1611–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1611-2020, 2020
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In this paper, the multidecadal variations of the Seine basin since the 1850s are investigated, based on a new hydrometeorological reconstruction derived from hydrological modeling. The hydrological and climatic mechanisms underlying these variations are highlighted. The analysis of the hydrometeorological reconstruction shows that high and low flows are influenced by these multidecadal hydroclimate variations.
Amirhossein Mazrooei, Arumugam Sankarasubramanian, and Venkat Lakshmi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1073–1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1073-2020, 2020
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Reliable forecasts of soil moisture conditions help water-related sectors to better prepare for drought and flooding events. This paper describes an approach in which monthly-to-seasonal soil moisture forecasts are developed and compared to remotely sensed observations from SMAP satellite. Our results reveal a promising skill in forecasting long-range soil moisture conditions, suggesting its great potential for real-time and practical applications.
Hanoi Medina and Di Tian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1011–1030, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1011-2020, 2020
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Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) forecasts play an important role in agricultural, environmental, and water management. This study evaluated probabilistic post-processing approaches for improving daily and weekly ensemble ET0 forecasting based on single or multiple numerical weather predictions. The three approaches used consistently improved the skill and reliability of the ET0 forecasts compared with the conventional method, due to the adjustment in the spread of the ensemble forecast.
Lu Li, Marie Pontoppidan, Stefan Sobolowski, and Alfonso Senatore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 771–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-771-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-771-2020, 2020
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We assessed the impact of initial conditions on convection-permitting simulations of a flood event over mountainous terrain. The calibrated convection-permitting model performs better than the simpler conceptual model. Discharge is slightly more sensitive to spin-up time than precipitation due to the influence of soil moisture. A maximum of 0.5 m of snow is converted to runoff irrespective of the initial snow depth, and this snowmelt contributes to discharge mostly during peak flow period.
Sofya Guseva, Tobias Bleninger, Klaus Jöhnk, Bruna Arcie Polli, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, Qianlai Zhuang, James Anthony Rusak, Huaxia Yao, Andreas Lorke, and Victor Stepanenko
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 697–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-697-2020, 2020
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We compare lake models with different complexity focusing on the key factors (e.g., eddy diffusivity) which can have an influence on the distribution of the dissolved gases in water. For the first time, we compare the biogeochemical modules in the ALBM and LAKE models. The result showed a good agreement with observed data (O2), but not for CO2. It indicates the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models.
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