Articles | Volume 29, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 23 Feb 2025
| 23 Feb 2025
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over the Central Mediterranean
Lorenzo Silvestri
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Engineering Enzo Ferrari, DIEF, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy
Miriam Saraceni
Interuniversity Research Center, CIRIAF, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
Bruno Brunone
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, DICA, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
Silvia Meniconi
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, DICA, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
Giulia Passadore
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, ICEA, University of Padova, Padua, Italy
Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Department of Physics and Geology, FIS-GEO, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
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We present a new approach to predict groundwater levels several months ahead by combining climate-based soil moisture forecasts with historical data from monitoring piezometers. Applied in central Italy, the method accurately captured seasonal trends. This forecasting tool can support sustainable water management and planning, especially under increasing climate variability and water scarcity.
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This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea, studied by ensemble forecasting. This involved multiple simulations of the same event by varying initial conditions and model physics parameters, especially related to convection, which showed comparable results. It is found that medicane development is influenced by the model's ability to predict precursor events and the interaction between upper and lower atmosphere dynamics and thermodynamics.
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We present a new approach to predict groundwater levels several months ahead by combining climate-based soil moisture forecasts with historical data from monitoring piezometers. Applied in central Italy, the method accurately captured seasonal trends. This forecasting tool can support sustainable water management and planning, especially under increasing climate variability and water scarcity.
Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Peter Bechtold, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13883–13909, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13883-2023, 2023
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This study focuses on three medicanes, tropical-like cyclones that form in the Mediterranean Sea, studied by ensemble forecasting. This involved multiple simulations of the same event by varying initial conditions and model physics parameters, especially related to convection, which showed comparable results. It is found that medicane development is influenced by the model's ability to predict precursor events and the interaction between upper and lower atmosphere dynamics and thermodynamics.
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Short summary
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in the areas of the Central Mediterranean where longer memory timescales are found. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance, and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for...
