Articles | Volume 29, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025
Research article
 | 
23 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 23 Feb 2025

Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over the Central Mediterranean

Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Bruno Brunone, Silvia Meniconi, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
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Cited articles

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Balsamo, G., Beljaars, A., Scipal, K., Viterbo, P., van den Hurk, B., Hirschi, M., and Betts, A. K.: A revised hydrology for the ECMWF model: Verification from field site to terrestrial water storage and impact in the Integrated Forecast System, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 623–643, 2009. a, b, c, d
Bell, R., Spring, A., Brady, R., Huang, A., Squire, D., Blackwood, Z., Sitter, M., and Chegini, T.: xarray-contrib/xskillscore: Metrics for verifying forecasts, xskillscore [code], https://xskillscore.readthedocs.io/en/stable/ (last access: 17 February 2025), 2021. a
Boas, T., Bogena, H. R., Ryu, D., Vereecken, H., Western, A., and Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.: Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023. a
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Short summary
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in the areas of the Central Mediterranean where longer memory timescales are found. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance, and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
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