Articles | Volume 28, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 May 2024
Research article |
| 15 May 2024
| 15 May 2024
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Nenghan Wan
Department of Agronomy, Kansas Climate Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA
Xiaomao Lin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Agronomy, Kansas Climate Center, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA
Roger A. Pielke Sr.
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Xubin Zeng
Climate Dynamics and Hydrometeorology Center at the University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Amanda M. Nelson
National Center of Alluvial Aquifer Research, USDA-ARS Sustainable Water Management Research Unit, Stoneville, MS, USA
Related authors
Nenghan Wan, Xiaozhen Xiong, Gerard J. Kluitenberg, J. M. Shawn Hutchinson, Robert Aiken, Haidong Zhao, and Xiaomao Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 711–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study used new TROPOMI measurements of NO2 and CO to characterize regional biomass burning characteristics and efficiency. We found that the NO2 / CO emission ratio was consistent with recent studies over temperate forest fires but slightly lower in savanna vegetation fires. Our results can help identify the relative contribution of smoldering and flaming activities as well as their impacts on the regional atmospheric composition and air quality.
Haidong Zhao, Gretchen F. Sassenrath, Mary Beth Kirkham, Nenghan Wan, and Xiaomao Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4357–4372, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4357-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study was done to develop an improved soil temperature model for the USA Great Plains by using common weather station variables as inputs. After incorporating knowledge of estimated soil moisture and observed daily snow depth, the improved model showed a near 50 % gain in performance compared to the original model. We conclude that our improved model can better estimate soil temperature at the surface soil layer where most hydrological and biological processes occur.
Hui Wan, Abhishek Yenpure, Berk Geveci, Richard C. Easter, Philip J. Rasch, Kai Zhang, and Xubin Zeng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4020, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In E3SMv2 and many other global climate models, the simulated anthropogenic aerosol influence on the Earth's energy balance is sensitive to the presence of clouds with very low droplet number concentrations. Numerical experiments conducted in this study suggest that mid- and high-latitude low-level stratus occurring under weak turbulence is an important cloud regime for understanding the causes of very low cloud droplet number concentrations in global climate simulations.
Soodabeh Namdari, Sanja Dmitrovic, Gao Chen, Yonghoon Choi, Ewan Crosbie, Joshua P. DiGangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Richard A. Ferrare, Johnathan W. Hair, Simon Kirschler, John B. Nowak, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Christiane Voigt, Holger Vömel, Xubin Zeng, and Armin Sorooshian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted this study to assess the accuracy of airborne measurements of wind, temperature, and humidity, essential for understanding atmospheric processes. Using data from NASA's ACTIVATE campaign, we compared measurements from the TAMMS and DLH aboard a Falcon aircraft with dropsondes from a King Air, matching data points based on location and time using statistical methods. The study showed strong agreement, confirming the reliability of these methods for advancing climate models.
Shuaiqi Tang, Hailong Wang, Xiang-Yu Li, Jingyi Chen, Armin Sorooshian, Xubin Zeng, Ewan Crosbie, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Luke D. Ziemba, and Christiane Voigt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 10073–10092, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10073-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-10073-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We examined marine boundary layer clouds and their interactions with aerosols in the E3SM single-column model (SCM) for a case study. The SCM shows good agreement when simulating the clouds with high-resolution models. It reproduces the relationship between cloud droplet and aerosol particle number concentrations as produced in global models. However, the relationship between cloud liquid water and droplet number concentration is different, warranting further investigation.
Bo-Wen Shen, Roger Pielke Sr., and Xubin Zeng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32941.15849, https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32941.15849, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our reanalysis does not support the claim that Lorenz’s and Lilly’s formulas are mathematically or physically comparable. No common factor of 2^{−2/3} can be robustly determined from Lorenz's data, disproving the assumption that the saturation time difference and turnover time are linearly proportional over wave modes. These issues, along with the highly simplified features of the Lorenz 1969 model, indicate that an upper bound for the predictability limit has not been robustly determined.
Sanja Dmitrovic, Johnathan W. Hair, Brian L. Collister, Ewan Crosbie, Marta A. Fenn, Richard A. Ferrare, David B. Harper, Chris A. Hostetler, Yongxiang Hu, John A. Reagan, Claire E. Robinson, Shane T. Seaman, Taylor J. Shingler, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Holger Vömel, Xubin Zeng, and Armin Sorooshian
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3515–3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3515-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3515-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces and evaluates a new ocean surface wind speed product from the NASA Langley Research Center (LARC) airborne High-Spectral-Resolution Lidar – Generation 2 (HSRL-2) during the NASA ACTIVATE mission. We show that HSRL-2 surface wind speed data are accurate when compared to ground-truth dropsonde measurements. Therefore, the HSRL-2 instrument is able obtain accurate, high-resolution surface wind speed data in airborne field campaigns.
Leong Wai Siu, Joseph S. Schlosser, David Painemal, Brian Cairns, Marta A. Fenn, Richard A. Ferrare, Johnathan W. Hair, Chris A. Hostetler, Longlei Li, Mary M. Kleb, Amy Jo Scarino, Taylor J. Shingler, Armin Sorooshian, Snorre A. Stamnes, and Xubin Zeng
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2739–2759, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2739-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2739-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An unprecedented 3-year aerosol dataset was collected from a recent NASA field campaign over the western North Atlantic Ocean, which offers a special opportunity to evaluate two state-of-the-art remote sensing instruments, one lidar and the other polarimeter, on the same aircraft. Special attention has been paid to validate aerosol optical depth data and their uncertainties when no reference dataset is available. Physical reasons for the disagreement between two instruments are discussed.
Armin Sorooshian, Mikhail D. Alexandrov, Adam D. Bell, Ryan Bennett, Grace Betito, Sharon P. Burton, Megan E. Buzanowicz, Brian Cairns, Eduard V. Chemyakin, Gao Chen, Yonghoon Choi, Brian L. Collister, Anthony L. Cook, Andrea F. Corral, Ewan C. Crosbie, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, Joshua P. DiGangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Sanja Dmitrovic, Eva-Lou Edwards, Marta A. Fenn, Richard A. Ferrare, David van Gilst, Johnathan W. Hair, David B. Harper, Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Chris A. Hostetler, Nathan Jester, Michael Jones, Simon Kirschler, Mary M. Kleb, John M. Kusterer, Sean Leavor, Joseph W. Lee, Hongyu Liu, Kayla McCauley, Richard H. Moore, Joseph Nied, Anthony Notari, John B. Nowak, David Painemal, Kasey E. Phillips, Claire E. Robinson, Amy Jo Scarino, Joseph S. Schlosser, Shane T. Seaman, Chellappan Seethala, Taylor J. Shingler, Michael A. Shook, Kenneth A. Sinclair, William L. Smith Jr., Douglas A. Spangenberg, Snorre A. Stamnes, Kenneth L. Thornhill, Christiane Voigt, Holger Vömel, Andrzej P. Wasilewski, Hailong Wang, Edward L. Winstead, Kira Zeider, Xubin Zeng, Bo Zhang, Luke D. Ziemba, and Paquita Zuidema
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3419–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3419-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) produced a unique dataset for research into aerosol–cloud–meteorology interactions. HU-25 Falcon and King Air aircraft conducted systematic and spatially coordinated flights over the northwest Atlantic Ocean. This paper describes the ACTIVATE flight strategy, instrument and complementary dataset products, data access and usage details, and data application notes.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaozhen Xiong, Gerard J. Kluitenberg, J. M. Shawn Hutchinson, Robert Aiken, Haidong Zhao, and Xiaomao Lin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 711–724, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-711-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-711-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study used new TROPOMI measurements of NO2 and CO to characterize regional biomass burning characteristics and efficiency. We found that the NO2 / CO emission ratio was consistent with recent studies over temperate forest fires but slightly lower in savanna vegetation fires. Our results can help identify the relative contribution of smoldering and flaming activities as well as their impacts on the regional atmospheric composition and air quality.
Hui Wan, Kai Zhang, Philip J. Rasch, Vincent E. Larson, Xubin Zeng, Shixuan Zhang, and Ross Dixon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 3205–3231, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3205-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-3205-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a tool embedded in a global climate model for sampling atmospheric conditions and monitoring physical processes as a numerical simulation is being carried out. The tool facilitates process-level model evaluation by allowing the users to select a wide range of quantities and processes to monitor at run time without having to do tedious ad hoc coding.
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
Haidong Zhao, Gretchen F. Sassenrath, Mary Beth Kirkham, Nenghan Wan, and Xiaomao Lin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4357–4372, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4357-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4357-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study was done to develop an improved soil temperature model for the USA Great Plains by using common weather station variables as inputs. After incorporating knowledge of estimated soil moisture and observed daily snow depth, the improved model showed a near 50 % gain in performance compared to the original model. We conclude that our improved model can better estimate soil temperature at the surface soil layer where most hydrological and biological processes occur.
Hossein Dadashazar, David Painemal, Majid Alipanah, Michael Brunke, Seethala Chellappan, Andrea F. Corral, Ewan Crosbie, Simon Kirschler, Hongyu Liu, Richard H. Moore, Claire Robinson, Amy Jo Scarino, Michael Shook, Kenneth Sinclair, K. Lee Thornhill, Christiane Voigt, Hailong Wang, Edward Winstead, Xubin Zeng, Luke Ziemba, Paquita Zuidema, and Armin Sorooshian
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10499–10526, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10499-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the seasonal cycle of cloud drop number concentration (Nd) over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) using multiple datasets. Reasons for the puzzling discrepancy between the seasonal cycles of Nd and aerosol concentration were identified. Results indicate that Nd is highest in winter (when aerosol proxy values are often lowest) due to conditions both linked to cold-air outbreaks and that promote greater droplet activation.
Hui Wan, Shixuan Zhang, Philip J. Rasch, Vincent E. Larson, Xubin Zeng, and Huiping Yan
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1921–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1921-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1921-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models used in weather and climate research and prediction unavoidably contain numerical errors resulting from temporal discretization, and the impact of such errors can be substantial. Complex process interactions often make it difficult to pinpoint the exact sources of such errors. This study uses a series of sensitivity experiments to identify components in a global atmosphere model that are responsible for time step sensitivities in various cloud regimes.
Seth Kutikoff, Xiaomao Lin, Steven R. Evett, Prasanna Gowda, David Brauer, Jerry Moorhead, Gary Marek, Paul Colaizzi, Robert Aiken, Liukang Xu, and Clenton Owensby
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 1253–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-1253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Fast-response infrared gas sensors have been used over 3 decades for long-term monitoring of water vapor fluxes. As optically improved infrared gas sensors are newly employed, we evaluated the performance of water vapor density and water vapor flux from three generations of infrared gas sensors in Bushland, Texas, USA. From our experiments, fluxes from the old sensors were best representative of evapotranspiration based on a world-class lysimeter reference measurement.
X. Lin, R. A. Pielke Sr., R. Mahmood, C. A. Fiebrich, and R. Aiken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 827–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-827-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-827-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We found that the near-surface lapse rate has significantly decreased with a trend of −0.18 ± 0.03 °C (10 m)−1 per decade. We also showed that the 9 m height temperatures increased faster than temperatures at the 1.5 m screen level and/or conditions at the 1.5 m height cooled faster than at the 9 m height.
A. T. Woldemichael, F. Hossain, and R. Pielke Sr.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3711–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3711-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Implementation of global soil databases in the Noah-MP model and the effects on simulated mean and extreme soil hydrothermal changes
Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK flood risk months ahead using a large-sample machine learning model trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts
Towards a robust hydrologic data assimilation system for hurricane-induced river flow forecasting
Enhanced evaluation of hourly and daily extreme precipitation in Norway from convection-permitting models at regional and local scales
Deep-learning-based sub-seasonal precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasting over the source region of the Yangtze River
High-resolution land surface modelling over Africa: the role of uncertain soil properties in combination with forcing temporal resolution
Investigating the global and regional response of drought to idealized deforestation using multiple global climate models
Distribution, trends, and drivers of flash droughts in the United Kingdom
Are dependencies of extreme rainfall on humidity more reliable in convection-permitting climate models?
Leveraging a radar-based disdrometer network to develop a probabilistic precipitation phase model in eastern Canada
Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over the Central Mediterranean
Do land models miss key soil hydrological processes controlling soil moisture memory?
Observation-driven model for calculating water-harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Review of gridded climate products and their use in hydrological analyses reveals overlaps, gaps, and the need for a more objective approach to selecting model forcing datasets
Barriers of urban hydro-meteorological simulation: a review
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell life cycles with a copula-based approach
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Enhanced hydrological modelling with the WRF-Hydro lake/reservoir module at Convection-Permitting scale: a case study of the Tana River basin in East Africa
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Probabilistic precipitation downscaling for ungauged mountain sites: a pilot study for the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
Storyline Analytical Framework for Understanding Future Severe Low-Water Episodes and Their Consequences
The role of land-atmosphere coupling in subseasonal surface air temperature prediction
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and VIC models
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Global catalog of soil moisture droughts over the past four decades
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
Kazeem Abiodun Ishola, Gerald Mills, Ankur Prabhat Sati, Benjamin Obe, Matthias Demuzere, Deepak Upreti, Gourav Misra, Paul Lewis, Daire Walsh, Tim McCarthy, and Rowan Fealy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2551–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2551-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global soil information introduces uncertainty into models that simulate soil hydrothermal changes. Using the Noah with Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) model with two different global soil datasets, we find under-represented soil properties in wet loam, causing a dry bias in soil moisture. This bias is more pronounced and drought categories are more severe in the SoilGrids dataset. We conclude that models should incorporate detailed, region-specific soil information to minimize model uncertainties.
Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, and Andrew W. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2393–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2393-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Here, we train and test a machine learning model to predict the monthly maximum daily streamflow up to 4 months ahead. We train the model on precipitation and temperature forecasts to produce probabilistic hindcasts for 579 stations across the UK for the period 2004–2016. We show skilful results up to 4 months ahead in many locations, although, in general, the skill declines with increasing lead time.
Peyman Abbaszadeh, Fatemeh Gholizadeh, Keyhan Gavahi, and Hamid Moradkhani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2407–2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2407-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Hybrid Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation framework for Environmental Systems (HEAVEN) enhances flood predictions by refining hydrologic models through improved data integration and uncertainty management. Tested in three southeastern US watersheds during hurricanes, HEAVEN assimilates real-time United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, boosting forecast accuracy.
Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Stephanie Mayer, Andreas Dobler, Chong-Yu Xu, and Ozan Mert Göktürk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2133–2152, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2133-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We compared hourly and daily extreme precipitation across Norway from HARMONIE Climate models at convection-permitting 3 km (HCLIM3) and 12 km (HCLIM12) resolutions. HCLIM3 more accurately captures the extremes in most regions and seasons (except in summer). Its advantages are more pronounced for hourly extremes than for daily extremes. The results highlight the value of convection-permitting models in improving extreme-precipitation predictions and in helping the local society brace for extreme weather.
Ningpeng Dong, Haoran Hao, Mingxiang Yang, Jianhui Wei, Shiqin Xu, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 2023–2042, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2023-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating extreme weather events, yet current long-term forecast products are often embedded with uncertainties. We develop a deep-learning-based modelling framework to improve 30 d rainfall and streamflow forecasts by combining advanced neural networks and physical models. With the flow forecast error reduced by up to 33 %, the framework has the potential to enhance water management and disaster prevention.
Bamidele Oloruntoba, Stefan Kollet, Carsten Montzka, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1659–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1659-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We studied how soil and weather data affect land model simulations over Africa. By combining soil data processed in different ways with weather data of varying time intervals, we found that weather inputs had a greater impact on water processes than soil data type. However, the way soil data were processed became crucial when paired with high-frequency weather inputs, showing that detailed weather data can improve local and regional predictions of how water moves and interacts with the land.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1637–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1637-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation has a significant impact on climate, yet its effects on drought remain less understood. This study investigates how deforestation affects drought across various climate zones and timescales. Findings indicate that deforestation leads to drier conditions in tropical regions and wetter conditions in arid areas, with minimal effects in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term drought, offering valuable insights into vegetation–climate interactions.
Iván Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1295–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides a detailed characterisation of flash drought in the UK for 1969–2021. The spatio-temporal distribution and trends of flash droughts are highly variable, with important regional and seasonal contrasts. In the UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, while the atmospheric evaporative demand plays a secondary role. We also found that the North Atlantic Oscillation is the main circulation pattern controlling flash drought development.
Geert Lenderink, Nikolina Ban, Erwan Brisson, Ségolène Berthou, Virginia Edith Cortés-Hernández, Elizabeth Kendon, Hayley J. Fowler, and Hylke de Vries
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1201–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1201-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Future extreme rainfall events are influenced by changes in both absolute and relative humidity. The impact of increasing absolute humidity is reasonably well understood, but the role of relative humidity decreases over land remains largely unknown. Using hourly observations from France and the Netherlands, we find that lower relative humidity generally leads to more intense rainfall extremes. This relation is only captured well in recently developed convection-permitting climate models.
Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, Julie M. Thériault, Olivier Chalifour, Fanny Payette, Alexandre Vidal, and Daniel F. Nadeau
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1135–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1135-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation data from an automated observational network in eastern Canada showed a temperature interval where rain and snow could coexist. Random forest models were developed to classify the precipitation phase using meteorological data to evaluate operational applications. The models demonstrated significantly improved phase classification and reduced error compared to benchmark operational models. However, accurate prediction of mixed-phase precipitation remains challenging.
Lorenzo Silvestri, Miriam Saraceni, Bruno Brunone, Silvia Meniconi, Giulia Passadore, and Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 925–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-925-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work demonstrates that seasonal forecasts of soil moisture are a valuable resource for groundwater management in the areas of the Central Mediterranean where longer memory timescales are found. In particular, they show significant correlation coefficients and forecast skill for the deepest soil moisture at 289 cm depth. Wet and dry events can be predicted 6 months in advance, and, in general, dry events are better captured than wet events.
Mohammad A. Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 547–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Soil moisture memory (SMM) shows how long soil stays moist after rain, impacting climate and ecosystems. Current models often overestimate SMM, causing inaccuracies in evaporation predictions. We enhanced a land model, Noah-MP, to include better water flow and ponding processes, and we tested it against satellite and field data. This improved model reduced overestimations and enhanced short-term predictions, helping create more accurate climate and weather forecasts.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo del Río
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 109–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-109-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for the social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligate us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting (FH) emerges as a complementary resource in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate FH potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where FH could be a viable water source.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-85-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 63 gridded ground (G), satellite (S), and reanalysis (R) climate datasets. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; however, R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, although better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Xuan Chen, Job Augustijn van der Werf, Arjan Droste, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Remko Uijlenhoet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3988, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research highlights the need to integrate urban land surface and hydrological models to better predict and manage compound climate disasters in cities. We find that inadequate representation of water surfaces, hydraulic systems, and detailed building representations are key areas for improvement in future models. Coupled models show promise but face challenges at regional and neighbourhood scales. Interdisciplinary communication is crucial to enhance urban hydrometeorological simulations.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 45–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-45-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new method to calculate the chance of heavy downpour and the maximum rainfall expected over a 25-year period. It is designed to analyse global climate models' reproduction of past and future climates. For the Nordic countries, it projects a wetter climate in the future with increased intensity but not necessarily more wet days. The analysis also shows that rainfall intensity is sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions, while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and reconstruct storm cell life cycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential shape function for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Ling Zhang, Lu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Joël Arnault, Stefan Sobolowski, Anthony Musili Mwanthi, Pratik Kad, Mohammed Abdullahi Hassan, Tanja Portele, and Harald Kunstmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-278, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
To address challenges related to unreliable hydrological simulations, we present an enhanced hydrological simulation with a refined climate model and a more comprehensive hydrological model. The model with the two parts outperforms that without, especially in migrating bias in peak flow and dry-season flow. Our findings highlight the enhanced hydrological simulation capability with the refined climate and lake module contributing 24 % and 76 % improvement, respectively.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
Marc Girona-Mata, Andrew Orr, Martin Widmann, Daniel Bannister, Ghulam Hussain Dars, Scott Hosking, Jesse Norris, David Ocio, Tony Phillips, Jakob Steiner, and Richard E. Turner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2805, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a novel method for improving daily precipitation maps in mountain regions and pilot it across three basins in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH). The approach leverages climate model and weather station data, along with statistical / machine learning techniques. Our results show this approach outperforms traditional methods, especially in remote, ungauged areas, suggesting it could be used to improve precipitation maps across much of the HKH, as well as other mountain regions.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Louis-Philippe Caron, Kristelle Audet, Laurent Da Silva, Daniel Tarte, Rachel Parent, Élise Comeau, and Dominic Matte
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2595, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2021 drought in Quebec showcased the province’s potential vulnerability. This study uses a storyline approach to explore impacts of future extreme droughts under +2 °C and +3 °C warming scenarios. By combining regional climate and hydrological simulations, it highlights the potential for severe water deficits. Collaboration with water management experts helped project the impacts of those future extreme droughts and their consequences for ecosystems and human activities.
Yuna Lim, Andrea M. Molod, Randal D. Koster, and Joseph A. Santanello
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2312, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To better utilize a given set of predictions, identifying “forecasts of opportunity” has great value. It can help anticipate when prediction skill will be higher. This study reveals that when strong L-A coupling is detected 3–4 weeks into a forecast, the prediction skill for surface air temperature at this lead increases across the Midwest and northern Great Plains. Regions experiencing strong L-A coupling exhibit warm and dry anomalies, leading to improved predictions of abnormally warm events.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, Markéta Poděbradská, Vojtěch Moravec, Luis Samaniego, and Miroslav Trnka
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1434, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a robust method for identification and classification of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture. Two models were used to calculate soil moisture and delimit soil drought over global land from 1980–2022, which was clustered into 775/630 GLDEs. Using four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics, we categorized GLDEs into seven severity and seven dynamic categories. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Cited articles
AIRS Science Team and Teixeira, J.: AIRS/Aqua L3 Daily Standard Physical Retrieval (AIRS-only) 1 degree × 1 degree V006, Greenbelt, MD, USA, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/Aqua/AIRS/DATA303, 2013.
Allan, D. and Allan, R. P.: Seasonal Changes in the North Atlantic Cold Anomaly: The influence of cold surface waters from coastal greenland and warming trends associated with variations in subarctic sea ice cover, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 124, 9040–9052, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015379, 2020.
Allan, R. P., Liu, C., Zahn, M., Lavers, D. A., Koukouvagias, E., and Bodas-Salcedo, A.: Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations, Surv. Geophys., 35, 533–552, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z, 2014.
Allan, R. P., Willett, K. M., John, V. O., and Trent, T.: Global changes in water vapor 1979–2020, J. Geophys. Res., 127, e2022JD036728, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036728, 2022.
Alshawaf, F., Balidakis, K., Dick, G., Heise, S., and Wickert, J.: Estimating trends in atmospheric water vapor and temperature time series over Germany, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 3117–3132, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3117-2017, 2017.
Andrews, T., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Gregory, J. M., Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Paynter, D., Lin, P., Modak, A., Mauritsen, T., Cole, J. N. S., Medeiros, B., Benedict, J. J., Douville, H., Roehrig, R., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Ogura, T., Dufresne, J.-L., Allan, R. P., and Liu, C.: On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD036675, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036675, 2022.
Bock, O.: Global GNSS integrated water vapour data, 1994–2021, AERIS [data set], https://en.aeris-data.fr/landing-page/?uuid=df7cf172-31fb-4d17-8f00-1a9293eb3b95 (last access: 13 May 2024), 2022.
Borger, C., Beirle, S., and Wagner, T.: Analysis of global trends of total column water vapour from multiple years of OMI observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 10603–10621, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10603-2022, 2022.
Byrne, M. P. and O'Gorman, P. A.: Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming, Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 115, 4863–4868, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1722312115, 2018.
Chen, B. and Liu, Z.: Global water vapor variability and trend from the latest 36 year (1979 to 2014) data of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses, radiosonde, GPS, and microwave satellite, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 11,442-11,462, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024917, 2016.
Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Trenberth, K. E., Boyer, T., Mann, M. E., Zhu, J., Wang, F., Yu, F., Locarnini, R., Fasullo, J., Zheng, F., Li, Y., Zhang, B., Wan, L., Chen, X., Wang, D., Feng, L., Song, X., Liu, Y., Reseghetti, F., Simoncelli, S., Gouretski, V., Chen, G., Mishonov, A., Reagan, J., Von Schuckmann, K., Pan, Y., Tan, Z., Zhu, Y., Wei, W., Li, G., Ren, Q., Cao, L., and Lu, Y.: New record ocean temperatures and related climate indicators in 2023, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2024, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5, 2024.
Clem, K. R., Fogt, R. L., Turner, J., Lintner, B. R., Marshall, G. J., Miller, J. R., and Renwick, J. A.: Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 762–770, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0815-z, 2020.
Dai, A., Wang, J., Thorne, P. W., Parker, D. E., Haimberger, L., and Wang, X. L.: A new approach to homogenize daily radiosonde humidity data, J. Climate, 24, 965–991, 2011.
Dee, D., Uppala, S., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., and Bauer, D. P.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, 2011.
Ding, J., Chen, J., and Tang, W.: Increasing trend of precipitable water vapor in Antarctica and Greenland, in: China Satellite Navigation Conference (CSNC 2022) Proceedings, 7 May 2022, Singapore, 286–296, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-2588-7_27, 2022.
Dong, B. and Dai, A.: The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on temperature and precipitation over the globe, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2667–2681, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x, 2015.
Douville, H. and Willett, K. M.: A drier than expected future, supported by near-surface relative humidity observations, Sci. Adv., 9, eade6253, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ade6253, 2022.
Douville, H., Qasmi, S., Ribes, A., and Bock, O.: Global warming at near-constant tropospheric relative humidity is supported by observations, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00561-z, 2022.
Drijfhout, S., Oldenborgh, G. J. van, and Cimatoribus, A.: Is a decline of AMOC causing the warming hole above the North Atlantic in observed and modeled warming patterns?, J. Climate, 25, 8373–8379, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00490.1, 2012.
Dunning, C. M., Black, E. C. L., and Allan, R. P.: The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 11, 405–11, 424, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025428, 2016.
Durre, I., Xungang, Y., Vose, R. S., Applequist, S., and Arnfield, J.: Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA), Version 2, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information [data set], https://doi.org/10.7289/V5X63K0Q, 2016.
Fasullo, J.: A mechanism for land–ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate, Clim. Dynam., 39, 1137–1147, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1270-3, 2012.
Garfinkel, C. I., Gordon, A., Oman, L. D., Li, F., Davis, S., and Pawson, S.: Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4597–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018, 2018.
Graversen, R. G.: Do changes in the midlatitude circulation have any impact on the Arctic surface air temperature trend?, J. Climate, 19, 5422–5438, 2006.
Gulev, S. K., Thorne, P. W., Ahn, J., Dentener, F. J., Domingues, C. M., Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D. S., Nnamchi, H. C., Quaas, J., Rivera, J. A., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S. L., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., and Vose, R. S.: Changing state of the climate system, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 287–422, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.004, 2021.
He, C., Clement, A. C., Cane, M. A., Murphy, L. N., Klavans, J. M., and Fenske, T. M.: A north atlantic warming hole without ocean circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL100420, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100420, 2022.
He, M., Qin, J., Lu, N., and Yao, L.: Assessment of ERA5 near-surface air temperatures over global oceans by combining MODIS sea surface temperature products and in situ observations, IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl., 16, 8442–8455, https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2023.3312810, 2023.
Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J.: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1, 2006.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N: ERA5 monthly averaged data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573, 2023.
Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R., and Smith, R. A.: Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Water Resour. Res., 18, 107–121, 1982.
Japan Meteorological Agency: Updated monthly. JRA-55: Japanese 55-year Reanalysis, Daily 3-Hourly and 6-Hourly Data, Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory [data set], https://doi.org/10.5065/D6HH6H41, 2013.
Jin, M. and Dickinson, R. E.: Land surface skin temperature climatology: benefitting from the strengths of satellite observations, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 044004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/4/044004, 2010.
Jin, M., Dickinson, R. E., and Vogelmann, A. M.: A Comparison of CCM2–BATS Skin Temperature and surface-air temperature with satellite and surface observations, J. Climate, 10, 1505–1524, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1505:ACOCBS>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Joshi, M. M., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., Sexton, D. M. H., and Johns, T. C.: Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change, Clim. Dynam., 30, 455–465, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0306-1, 2008.
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi, K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Takahashi, K.: The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015.
Lacis, A. A., Schmidt, G. A., Rind, D., and Ruedy, R. A.: Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth's temperature, Science, 330, 356–359, 2010.
Li, L., Lozier, M. S., and Li, F.: Century-long cooling trend in subpolar North Atlantic forced by atmosphere: an alternative explanation, Clim. Dynam., 58, 2249–2267, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06003-4, 2022.
Long, C. S., Fujiwara, M., Davis, S., Mitchell, D. M., and Wright, C. J.: Climatology and interannual variability of dynamic variables in multiple reanalyses evaluated by the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14593–14629, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14593-2017, 2017.
Madonna, F., Tramutola, E., Sy, S., Serva, F., Proto, M., Rosoldi, M., Gagliardi, S., Amato, F., Marra, F., Fassò, A., Gardiner, T., and Thorne, P. W.: The new Radiosounding HARMonization (RHARM) data set of homogenized radiosounding temperature, humidity, and wind profiles with uncertainties, J. Geophys. Res., 127, e2021JD035220, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035220, 2022.
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., and Shukla, P. R.: Global Warming of 1.5 °C: IPCC Special Report on impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels in context of strengthening response to climate change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 9781009157940, 2022.
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Winn, J. P., Hogan, E., Killick, R. E., Dunn, R. J. H., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. D., and Simpson, I. R.: An updated assessment of near-surface temperature change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 data set, J. Geophys. Res., 126, e2019JD032361, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032361, 2021.
O'Gorman, P. A. and Muller, C. J.: How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius–Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations?, Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025207, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025207, 2010.
Parracho, A. C., Bock, O., and Bastin, S.: Global IWV trends and variability in atmospheric reanalyses and GPS observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16213–16237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16213-2018, 2018.
Patel, V. K. and Kuttippurath, J.: Increase in iropospheric water vapor amplifies global warming and climate change, Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, 2, 0015, https://doi.org/10.34133/olar.0015, 2023.
Pielke, R., Nielsen-Gammon, J., Davey, C., Angel, J., Bliss, O., Doesken, N., Cai, M., Fall, S., Niyogi, D., Gallo, K., and Hale, R.: Documentation of uncertainties and biases associated with surface temperature measurement sites for climate change assessment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 913–928, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-6-913, 2007.
Rantanen, M., Karpechko, A. Y., Lipponen, A., Nordling, K., Hyvärinen, O., Ruosteenoja, K., Vihma, T., and Laaksonen, A.: The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3, 2022.
Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
Ruckstuhl, C., Philipona, R., Morland, J., and Ohmura, A.: Observed relationship between surface specific humidity, integrated water vapor, and longwave downward radiation at different altitudes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D03302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007850, 2007.
Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Gleckler, P. J., Bonfils, C., Wehner, M. F., AchutaRao, K., Barnett, T. P., Boyle, J. S., Bruggemann, W., Fiorino, M., and Gillett, N.: Causes of ocean surface temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 13905–13910, 2006.
Santer, B. D., Taylor, K. E., Gleckler, P. J., Bonfils, C., Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Wigley, T. M. L., Mears, C., Wentz, F. J., Brüggemann, W., Gillett, N. P., Klein, S. A., Solomon, S., Stott, P. A., and Wehner, M. F.: Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 14778–14783, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0901736106, 2009.
Santer, B. D., Po-Chedley, S., Mears, C., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N., Fu, Q., Painter, J. F., Solomon, S., Steiner, A. K., Wentz, F. J., Zelinka, M. D., and Zou, C.-Z.: Using climate model simulations to constrain observations, J. Climate, 34, 6281–6301, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0768.1, 2021.
Schröder, M., Lockhoff, M., Forsythe, J. M., Cronk, H. Q., Haar, T. H. V., and Bennartz, R.: The GEWEX water vapor assessment: results from intercomparison, trend, and homogeneity analysis of total column water vapor, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 55, 1633–1649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0304.1, 2016.
Screen, J. A. and Simmonds, I.: The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification, Nature, 464, 1334–1337, 2010.
Sen, P. K.: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389, 1968.
Shao, X., Ho, S.-P., Jing, X., Zhou, X., Chen, Y., Liu, T.-C., Zhang, B., and Dong, J.: Characterizing the tropospheric water vapor spatial variation and trend using 2007–2018 COSMIC radio occultation and ECMWF reanalysis data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14187–14218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14187-2023, 2023.
Soden, B. J., Wetherald, R. T., Stenchikov, G. L., and Robock, A.: Global Cooling After the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo: A Test of Climate Feedback by Water Vapor, Science, 296, 727–730, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.296.5568.727, 2002.
Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Dee, D. P., Hersbach, H., Hirahara, S., and Thépaut, J. N.: A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2949, 2017.
Simpson, I. R., McKinnon, K. A., Kennedy, D., Lawrence, D. M., Lehner, F., and Seager, R.: Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 121, e2302480120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2302480120, 2023.
Swaminathan, R., Parker, R. J., Jones, C. G., Allan, R. P., Quaife, T., Kelley, D. I., Mora, L. de, and Walton, J.: The physical climate at global warming thresholds as seen in the U. K. Earth System Model, J. Climate, 35, 29–48, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0234.1, 2022.
Taszarek, M., Pilguj, N., Allen, J. T., Gensini, V., Brooks, H. E., and Szuster, P.: Comparison of convective parameters derived from ERA5 and MERRA-2 with rawinsonde data over Europe and North America, J. Climate, 34, 3211–3237, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0484.1, 2021.
Theil, H.: A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, in: Henri Theil's contributions to economics and econometrics, Springer, 345–381, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2546-8, 1992.
Tian, B., Manning, E., Roman, J., Thrastarson, H., Fetzer, E., and Monarrez, R.: AIRS version 7 level 3 product user guide, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, https://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/data/products/v7-L2-L3/(last access: 3 June 2021), 2020.
Trenberth, K. E.: Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: implications for rainfall rates and climate change, Climatic Change, 39, 667–694, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005319109110, 1998.
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., Rasmussen, R. M., and Parsons, D. B.: The changing character of precipitation, B. Am. Meterol. Soc., 84, 1205–1218, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205, 2003.
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., and Smith, L.: Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor, Clim. Dynam., 24, 741–758, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4, 2005.
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., and Mackaro, J.: Atmospheric moisture transports from ocean to land and global energy flows in reanalyses, J. Climate, 24, 4907–4924, 2011.
Trenberth, K. E., Zhang, Y., Fasullo, J. T., and Taguchi, S.: Climate variability and relationships between top-of-atmosphere radiation and temperatures on Earth, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 3642–3659, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022887, 2015.
Trent, T., Schroeder, M., Ho, S.-P., Beirle, S., Bennartz, R., Borbas, E., Borger, C., Brogniez, H., Calbet, X., Castelli, E., Compo, G. P., Ebisuzaki, W., Falk, U., Fell, F., Forsythe, J., Hersbach, H., Kachi, M., Kobayashi, S., Kursinsk, R. E., Loyola, D., Luo, Z., Nielsen, J. K., Papandrea, E., Picon, L., Preusker, R., Reale, A., Shi, L., Slivinski, L., Teixeira, J., Vonder Haar, T., and Wagner, T.: Evaluation of Total Column Water Vapour Products from Satellite Observations and Reanalyses within the GEWEX Water Vapor Assessment, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2808, 2023.
Urraca, R. and Gobron, N.: Temporal stability of long-term satellite and reanalysis products to monitor snow cover trends, The Cryosphere, 17, 1023–1052, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1023-2023, 2023.
Wagner, T., Beirle, S., Grzegorski, M., Sanghavi, S., and Platt, U.: El Niño induced anomalies in global data sets of total column precipitable water and cloud cover derived from GOME on ERS-2, J. Geophys. Res., 110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD005972, 2005.
Wang, C., Graham, R. M., Wang, K., Gerland, S., and Granskog, M. A.: Comparison of ERA5 and ERA-Interim near-surface air temperature, snowfall and precipitation over Arctic sea ice: effects on sea ice thermodynamics and evolution, The Cryosphere, 13, 1661–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1661-2019, 2019.
Wang, J., Dai, A., and Mears, C.: Global water vapor trend from 1988 to 2011 and its diurnal asymmetry based on GPS, radiosonde, and microwave satellite measurements, J. Climate, 29, 5205–5222, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0485.1, 2016.
Wang, X. L.: Penalized maximal F test for detecting undocumented mean shift without trend change, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 25, 368–384, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JTECHA982.1, 2018.
Wang, X. L. and Feng, Y.: RHtestsV4 user manual, Climate Research Division, ASTD, STB, Environment Canada [Software], http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/software.shtml (last access: 13 May 2024), 2013.
Wang, X. L., Swail, V. R., and Zwiers, F. W.: Climatology and changes of extratropical cyclone activity: Comparison of ERA-40 with NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for 1958–2001, J. Climate, 19, 3145–3166, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3781.1, 2006.
Wentz, F. J., Hilburn, K. A., and Smith, D. K.: Remote sensing systems DMSP [SSM/I or SSMIS][Daily, 3-Day, Weekly, Monthly] environmental suite on 0.25° grid, Version 7, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA [data set], https://www.remss.com/missions/ssmi (last access: 13 May 2024), 2015.
Willett, K. M.: HadISDH.extremes Part I: A gridded wet bulb temperature extremes index product for climate monitoring, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1952–1967, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2347-8, 2023.
Xiong, J., Guo, S., Abhishek, Chen, J., and Yin, J.: Global evaluation of the “dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter” paradigm from a terrestrial water storage change perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6457–6476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6457-2022, 2022.
Yuan, P., Hunegnaw, A., Alshawaf, F., Awange, J., Klos, A., Teferle, F. N., and Kutterer, H.: Feasibility of ERA5 integrated water vapor trends for climate change analysis in continental Europe: An evaluation with GPS (1994–2019) by considering statistical significance, Remote Sens. Environ., 260, 112416, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112416, 2021.
Yuan, P., Van Malderen, R., Yin, X., Vogelmann, H., Jiang, W., Awange, J., Heck, B., and Kutterer, H.: Characterisations of Europe's integrated water vapour and assessments of atmospheric reanalyses using more than 2 decades of ground-based GPS, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3517–3541, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3517-2023, 2023.
Zeng, X., Reeves Eyre, J. J., Dixon, R. D., and Arevalo, J.: Quantifying the occurrence of record hot years through normalized warming trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL091626, 2021.
Zhai, P. and Eskridge, R. E.: Atmospheric water vapor over China, J Climate, 10, 2643–2652, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2643:AWVOC>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Zhang, W., Lou, Y., Cao, Y., Liang, H., Shi, C., Huang, J., Liu, W., Zhang, Y., and Fan, B.: Corrections of radiosonde-based precipitable water using ground-based GPS and applications on historical radiosonde data over China, J. Geophys. Res., 124, 3208–3222, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029662, 2019.
Zhang, W., Wang, L., Yu, Y., Xu, G., Hu, X., Fu, Z., and Cui, C.: Global evaluation of the precipitable-water-vapor product from MERSI-II (Medium Resolution Spectral Imager) on board the Fengyun-3D satellite, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 7821–7834, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-7821-2021, 2021.
Zhang, X., Sorteberg, A., Zhang, J., Gerdes, R., and Comiso, J. C.: Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035607, 2008.
Zhou, C., Wang, J., Dai, A., and Thorne, P. W.: A new approach to homogenize global subdaily radiosonde temperature data from 1958 to 2018, J. Climate, 34, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0352.1, 2021.
Zhuang, J.: xESMF: universal regridder for geospatial data, GitHub, GitHub repository, [Software], Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1134366, 2018.
Zveryaev, I. I. and Allan, R. P.: Water vapor variability in the tropics and its links to dynamics and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D21112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006033, 2005.
Download
The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.
- Article
(5428 KB) - Full-text XML
- Corrigendum
-
Supplement
(1446 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water...
