Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2583-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 May 2022
Research article |
| 17 May 2022
| 17 May 2022
Regional, multi-decadal analysis on the Loire River basin reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature
Hanieh Seyedhashemi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
INRAE, UR RiverLy, 5 rue de la Doua CS 20244, 69625 Villeurbanne, France
EA 6293 GéoHydrosystèmes COntinentaux, Université François-Rabelais de Tours, Parc de Grandmont, 37200 Tours, France
Jean-Philippe Vidal
INRAE, UR RiverLy, 5 rue de la Doua CS 20244, 69625 Villeurbanne, France
Jacob S. Diamond
INRAE, UR RiverLy, 5 rue de la Doua CS 20244, 69625 Villeurbanne, France
Dominique Thiéry
BRGM, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières, BP 6009 45060 Orléans CEDEX 2, France
Céline Monteil
EDF – Recherche et Développement, Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, Chatou, France
Frédéric Hendrickx
EDF – Recherche et Développement, Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, Chatou, France
Anthony Maire
EDF – Recherche et Développement, Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, Chatou, France
Florentina Moatar
INRAE, UR RiverLy, 5 rue de la Doua CS 20244, 69625 Villeurbanne, France
Related authors
Hanieh Seyedhashemi, Florentina Moatar, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Dominique Thiéry
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2827–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a past and future dataset of daily time series of discharge and stream temperature for 52 278 reaches over the Loire River basin (100 000 km2) in France, using thermal and hydrological models. Past data are provided over 1963–2019. Future data are available over the 1976–2100 period under different future climate change models (warm and wet, intermediate, and hot and dry) and scenarios (optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic).
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Alexandre Devers, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Claire Lauvernet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Núria Bonada, Zoltán Csabai, Heikki Mykrä, Petr Pařil, Luka Polović, and Thibault Datry
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-272, 2024
Preprint under review for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Our study projects how climate change will affect drying of river segments and stream networks in Europe, using advanced modeling techniques to assess changes in six river networks across diverse ecoregions. We found that drying events will become more frequent, intense and start earlier or last longer, potentially turning some river sections from perennial to intermittent. The results are valuable for river ecologists in evaluating the ecological health of river ecosystem.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
Louise Mimeau, Annika Künne, Flora Branger, Sven Kralisch, Alexandre Devers, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 851–871, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling flow intermittence is essential for predicting the future evolution of drying in river networks and better understanding the ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, modelling flow intermittence is challenging, and observed data on temporary rivers are scarce. This study presents a new modelling approach for predicting flow intermittence in river networks and shows that combining different sources of observed data reduces the model uncertainty.
Laurent Strohmenger, Eric Sauquet, Claire Bernard, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Amélie Bresson, Pierre Brigode, Rémy Buzier, Olivier Delaigue, Alexandre Devers, Guillaume Evin, Maïté Fournier, Shu-Chen Hsu, Sandra Lanini, Alban de Lavenne, Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Claire Magand, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Max Mentha, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Tristan Podechard, Léo Rouchy, Malak Sadki, Myriam Soutif-Bellenger, François Tilmant, Yves Tramblay, Anne-Lise Véron, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France. The objective was to detect non-natural records resulting from instrument failure or anthropogenic influences, such as hydroelectric power generation or reservoir management. We conclude that the identification of flaws in flow time series is highly dependent on the objectives and skills of individual evaluators, and we raise the need for better practices for data cleaning.
Hanieh Seyedhashemi, Florentina Moatar, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Dominique Thiéry
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2827–2839, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2827-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2827-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a past and future dataset of daily time series of discharge and stream temperature for 52 278 reaches over the Loire River basin (100 000 km2) in France, using thermal and hydrological models. Past data are provided over 1963–2019. Future data are available over the 1976–2100 period under different future climate change models (warm and wet, intermediate, and hot and dry) and scenarios (optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic).
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-78, 2023
Publication in HESS not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
The recent development of the a new meteorological dataset providing precipitation and temperature over France – FYRE Climate – has been transformed to streamflow time series over 1871–2012 through the used of a hydrological model. This led to the creation of the daily hydrological reconstructions called HyDRE and HyDRE. These two reconstructions are evaluated allow to better understand the variability of past hydrology over France.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Aurélien Beaufort, Jacob S. Diamond, Eric Sauquet, and Florentina Moatar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3477–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3477-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We developed one of the largest stream temperature databases to calculate a simple, ecologically relevant metric – the thermal peak – that captures the magnitude of summer thermal extremes. Using statistical models, we extrapolated the thermal peak to nearly every stream in France, finding the hottest thermal peaks along large rivers without forested riparian zones and groundwater inputs. Air temperature was a poor proxy for the thermal peak, highlighting the need to grow monitoring networks.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Manuel Fossa, Bastien Dieppois, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, Benoit Laignel, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5683–5702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Hydro-climate observations (such as precipitation, temperature, and river discharge time series) reveal very complex behavior inherited from complex interactions among the physical processes that drive hydro-climate viability. This study shows how even small perturbations of a physical process can have large consequences on some others. Those interactions vary spatially, thus showing the importance of both temporal and spatial dimensions in better understanding hydro-climate variability.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, and Olivier Vannier
Clim. Past, 17, 1857–1879, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1857-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1857-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents FYRE Climate, a dataset providing daily precipitation and temperature spanning the 1871–2012 period at 8 km resolution over France. FYRE Climate has been obtained through the combination of daily and yearly observations and a gridded reconstruction already available through a statistical technique called data assimilation. Results highlight the quality of FYRE Climate in terms of both long-term variations and reproduction of extreme events.
Stella Guillemot, Ophelie Fovet, Chantal Gascuel-Odoux, Gérard Gruau, Antoine Casquin, Florence Curie, Camille Minaudo, Laurent Strohmenger, and Florentina Moatar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2491–2511, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2491-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2491-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the drivers of spatial variations in stream water quality in poorly studied headwater catchments and includes multiple elements involved in major water quality issues, such as eutrophication. We used a regional public dataset of monthly stream water concentrations monitored for 10 years over 185 agricultural catchments. We found a spatial and seasonal opposition between carbon and nitrogen concentrations, while phosphorus concentrations showed another spatial pattern.
Nicolas Massei, Daniel G. Kingston, David M. Hannah, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Bastien Dieppois, Manuel Fossa, Andreas Hartmann, David A. Lavers, and Benoit Laignel
Proc. IAHS, 383, 141–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-141-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents recent thoughts by members of EURO-FRIEND Water project 3 “Large-scale-variations in hydrological characteristics” about research needed to characterize and understand large-scale hydrology under global changes. Emphasis is put on the necessary efforts to better understand 1 – the impact of low-frequency climate variability on hydrological trends and extremes, 2 – the role of basin properties on modulating the climate signal producing hydrological responses on the basin scale.
Kerstin Stahl, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Jamie Hannaford, Erik Tijdeman, Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, and Lena M. Tallaksen
Proc. IAHS, 383, 291–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-291-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Numerous indices exist for the description of hydrological drought, some are based on absolute thresholds of overall streamflows or water levels and some are based on relative anomalies with respect to the season. This article discusses paradigms and experiences with such index uses in drought monitoring and drought analysis to raise awareness of the different interpretations of drought severity.
Céline Monteil, Fabrice Zaoui, Nicolas Le Moine, and Frédéric Hendrickx
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3189–3209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3189-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental modelling is complex, and models often require the calibration of several parameters that are not able to be directly evaluated from a physical quantity or a field measurement. Based on our experience in hydrological modelling, we propose combining two algorithms to obtain a fast and accurate way of calibrating complex models (many parameters and many objectives). We built an R package, caRamel, so that this multi-objective calibration algorithm can be easily implemented.
Jacob S. Diamond, Daniel L. McLaughlin, Robert A. Slesak, and Atticus Stovall
Biogeosciences, 17, 901–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-901-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-901-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Many wetland systems exhibit lumpy, or uneven, soil surfaces where higher points are called hummocks and lower points are called hollows. We found that, while hummocks extended only ~ 20 cm above hollow surfaces, they exhibited distinct plant communities, plant growth, and soil properties. Differences between hummocks and hollows were the greatest in wetter sites, supporting the hypothesis that plants create and maintain their own hummocks in response to saturated soil conditions.
Jacob S. Diamond, Daniel L. McLaughlin, Robert A. Slesak, and Atticus Stovall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5069–5088, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5069-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5069-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We found evidence for spatial patterning of soil elevation in forested wetlands that was well explained by hydrology. The patterns that we found were strongest at wetter sites, and were weakest at drier sites. When a site was wet, soil elevations typically only belonged to two groups: tall "hummocks" and low "hollows. The tall, hummock groups were spaced equally apart from each other and were a similar size. We believe this is evidence for a biota–hydrology feedback that creates hummocks.
André Chandesris, Kris Van Looy, Jacob S. Diamond, and Yves Souchon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4509–4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4509-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4509-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We found that small dams in rivers alter the thermal regimes of downstream waters in two distinct ways: either only the downstream daily minimum temperatures increase, or both the downstream daily minimum and maximum temperatures increase. We further show that only two physical dam characteristics can explain this difference in temperature response: (1) residence time, and (2) surface area. These results may help managers prioritize efforts to restore the fragmented thermalscapes of rivers.
Laurie Caillouet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Eric Sauquet, Benjamin Graff, and Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 241–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-241-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
SCOPE Climate is a 25-member ensemble of 142-year daily high-resolution reconstructions of precipitation, temperature, and Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration over France. It is the first century-long gridded high-resolution homogeneous dataset available over France. It thus paves the way for studying local historical meteorological events and for assessing the local climate variability from the end of the 19th century.
Laura Rouhier, Federico Garavaglia, Matthieu Le Lay, Timothée Michon, William Castaings, Nicolas Le Moine, Frédéric Hendrickx, Céline Monteil, and Pierre Ribstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-342, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Parameter estimation of distributed hydrological models is usually conducted with a single method. However, the main methods can be combined to consider differently the model parameters according to their characteristics. The strategy presented in the paper takes advantage of three different methods to provide four different spatial patterns. This tailor-made method then proves to be more robust and more relevant for prediction in ungauged basins while significantly reducing the number of degree.
Gregor Laaha, Tobias Gauster, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Kerstin Stahl, Christel Prudhomme, Benedikt Heudorfer, Radek Vlnas, Monica Ionita, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Laurie Caillouet, Claire Delus, Miriam Fendekova, Sebastien Gailliez, Jamie Hannaford, Daniel Kingston, Anne F. Van Loon, Luis Mediero, Marzena Osuch, Renata Romanowicz, Eric Sauquet, James H. Stagge, and Wai K. Wong
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3001–3024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3001-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by a drought. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region around the Czech Republic was most affected, with return periods > 100 yr. In terms of deficit volumes, the drought was particularly severe around S. Germany where the event lasted notably long. Meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time. For an assessment of drought impacts on water resources, hydrological data are required in addition to meteorological indices.
Laurie Caillouet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Eric Sauquet, Alexandre Devers, and Benjamin Graff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2923–2951, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2923-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2923-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The historical depth of streamflow observations in France is extended through daily hydrometeorogical reconstructions from 1871 onwards over a large set of near-natural catchments. Innovative approaches are proposed to identify and intercompare extreme low-flow events from these reconstructions, both in time and across France in a homogeneous way over more than 140 years. Analyses bring forward recent well-known events like 1976 and 1989–1990 but also much older ones like 1878 and 1893.
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.
Laurie Caillouet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Eric Sauquet, and Benjamin Graff
Clim. Past, 12, 635–662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-635-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-635-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a daily high-resolution reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France from 1871 onwards. A statistical method linking atmospheric circulation to local precipitation is refined for taking advantage of recently published global long-term atmospheric and oceanic reconstructions. The resulting data set allows filling in the spatial and temporal data gaps in historical surface observations, and improving our knowledge on the local-scale climate variability.
I. Giuntoli, J.-P. Vidal, C. Prudhomme, and D. M. Hannah
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-267-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed future changes in high and low flows globally using runoff projections from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Further, we quantified the relative size of uncertainty from GHMs and from GCMs using ANOVA. We show that GCMs are the major contributors to uncertainty overall, but GHMs increase their contribution for low flows and can equal or outweigh GCM uncertainty in snow-dominated areas for both high and low flows.
S. Radanovics, J.-P. Vidal, E. Sauquet, A. Ben Daoud, and G. Bontron
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4189–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4189-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4189-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Downscaling precipitation over High-mountain Asia using multi-fidelity Gaussian processes: improved estimates from ERA5
Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model
Assessing rainfall radar errors with an inverse stochastic modelling framework
Multi-objective calibration and evaluation of the ORCHIDEE land surface model over France at high resolution
Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau
FROSTBYTE: a reproducible data-driven workflow for probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting in snow-fed river basins across North America
On the combined use of rain gauges and GPM IMERG satellite rainfall products for hydrological modelling: impact assessment of the cellular-automata-based methodology in the Tanaro River basin in Italy
An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years
140-year daily ensemble streamflow reconstructions over 661 catchments in France
The agricultural expansion in South America's Dry Chaco: regional hydroclimate effects
Machine-learning-constrained projection of bivariate hydrological drought magnitudes and socioeconomic risks over China
Improving runoff simulation in the Western United States with Noah-MP and variable infiltration capacity
Spatial variability in the seasonal precipitation lapse rates in complex topographical regions – application in France
Downscaling the probability of heavy rainfall over the Nordic countries
Modelling convective cell lifecycles with a copula-based approach
What Are the Key Soil Hydrological Processes to Control Soil Moisture Memory?
Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021
Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends
Identification of compound drought and heatwave events on a daily scale and across four seasons
Observation-driven model for calculating water harvesting potential from advective fog in (semi-)arid coastal regions
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change
Review of Gridded Climate Products and Their Use in Hydrological Analyses Reveals Overlaps, Gaps, and Need for More Objective Approach to Model Forcings
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Accounting for hydroclimatic properties in flood frequency analysis procedures
Understanding the influence of “hot” models in climate impact studies: a hydrological perspective
A semi-parametric hourly space–time weather generator
A principal-component-based strategy for regionalisation of precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) statistics
Accounting for precipitation asymmetry in a multiplicative random cascade disaggregation model
Seasonal soil moisture and crop yield prediction with fifth-generation seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5) long-range meteorological forecasts in a land surface modelling approach
A genetic particle filter scheme for univariate snow cover assimilation into Noah-MP model across snow climates
Investigating the response of land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks to spatial representation of irrigation in a coupled modeling framework
Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia
Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks
Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US
Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models
Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin
Local moisture recycling across the globe
How well does a convection-permitting regional climate model represent the reverse orographic effect of extreme hourly precipitation?
Regionalisation of rainfall depth–duration–frequency curves with different data types in Germany
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Continuous streamflow prediction in ungauged basins: long short-term memory neural networks clearly outperform traditional hydrological models
Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India
Declining water resources in response to global warming and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over southern Mediterranean France
Kenza Tazi, Andrew Orr, Javier Hernandez-González, Scott Hosking, and Richard E. Turner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4903–4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4903-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to improve the understanding of precipitation patterns in High-mountain Asia, a crucial water source for around 1.9 billion people. Through a novel machine learning method, we generate high-resolution precipitation predictions, including the likelihoods of floods and droughts. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our method is simpler to implement and more suitable for small datasets. The method also shows accuracy comparable to or better than existing benchmark datasets.
Peter E. Levy and the COSMOS-UK team
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4819–4836, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4819-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Having accurate up-to-date maps of soil moisture is important for many purposes. However, current modelled and remotely sensed maps are rather coarse and not very accurate. Here, we demonstrate a simple but accurate approach that is closely linked to direct measurements of soil moisture at a network sites across the UK, to the water balance (precipitation minus drainage and evaporation) measured at a large number of catchments (1212) and to remotely sensed satellite estimates.
Amy C. Green, Chris Kilsby, and András Bárdossy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4539–4558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather radar is a crucial tool in rainfall estimation, but radar rainfall estimates are subject to many error sources, with the true rainfall field unknown. A flexible model for simulating errors relating to the radar rainfall estimation process is implemented, inverting standard processing methods. This flexible and efficient model performs well in generating realistic weather radar images visually for a large range of event types.
Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4455–4476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a reliable historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
He Sun, Tandong Yao, Fengge Su, Wei Yang, and Deliang Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4361–4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4361-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings show that runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin is primarily driven by rainfall, with the largest glacier runoff contribution in the downstream sub-basin. Annual runoff increased in the upper stream but decreased downstream due to varying precipitation patterns. It is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, mainly driven by increased rainfall.
Louise Arnal, Martyn P. Clark, Alain Pietroniro, Vincent Vionnet, David R. Casson, Paul H. Whitfield, Vincent Fortin, Andrew W. Wood, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Brandi W. Newton, and Colleen Walford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4127–4155, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4127-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting river flow months in advance is crucial for water sectors and society. In North America, snowmelt is a key driver of flow. This study presents a statistical workflow using snow data to forecast flow months ahead in North American snow-fed rivers. Variations in the river flow predictability across the continent are evident, raising concerns about future predictability in a changing (snow) climate. The reproducible workflow hosted on GitHub supports collaborative and open science.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Beijing Fang, Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3755–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.
Alexandre Devers, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Claire Lauvernet, Olivier Vannier, and Laurie Caillouet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3457–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Daily streamflow series for 661 near-natural French catchments are reconstructed over 1871–2012 using two ensemble datasets: HydRE and HydREM. They include uncertainties coming from climate forcings, streamflow measurement, and hydrological model error (for HydrREM). Comparisons with other hydrological reconstructions and independent/dependent observations show the added value of the two reconstructions in terms of quality, uncertainty estimation, and representation of extremes.
María Agostina Bracalenti, Omar V. Müller, Miguel A. Lovino, and Ernesto Hugo Berbery
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3281–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3281-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Gran Chaco is a large, dry forest in South America that has been heavily deforested, particularly in the dry Chaco subregion. This deforestation, mainly driven by the expansion of the agricultural frontier, has changed the land's characteristics, affecting the local and regional climate. The study reveals that deforestation has resulted in reduced precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff, and if intensive agriculture continues, it could make summers in this arid region even drier and hotter.
Rutong Liu, Jiabo Yin, Louise Slater, Shengyu Kang, Yuanhang Yang, Pan Liu, Jiali Guo, Xihui Gu, Xiang Zhang, and Aliaksandr Volchak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3305–3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3305-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change accelerates the water cycle and alters the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological variables, thus complicating the projection of future streamflow and hydrological droughts. We develop a cascade modeling chain to project future bivariate hydrological drought characteristics over China, using five bias-corrected global climate model outputs under three shared socioeconomic pathways, five hydrological models, and a deep-learning model.
Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ming Pan, and Benjamin Bass
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3079–3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We fine-tuned the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) and Noah-MP models across 263 river basins in the Western US. We developed transfer relationships to similar basins and extended the fine-tuned parameters to ungauged basins. Both models performed best in humid areas, and the skills improved post-calibration. VIC outperforms Noah-MP in all but interior dry basins following regionalization. VIC simulates annual mean streamflow and high flow well, while Noah-MP performs better for low flows.
Valentin Dura, Guillaume Evin, Anne-Catherine Favre, and David Penot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2579–2601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The increase in precipitation as a function of elevation is poorly understood in areas with complex topography. In this article, the reproduction of these orographic gradients is assessed with several precipitation products. The best product is a simulation from a convection-permitting regional climate model. The corresponding seasonal gradients vary significantly in space, with higher values for the first topographical barriers exposed to the dominant air mass circulations.
Rasmus E. Benestad, Kajsa M. Parding, and Andreas Dobler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1463, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a method for deriving the chance of heavy downpour, the maximum amount expected at various intervals, and explain how the rainfall changes. It suggests that increases are more due to increased amounts on wet days rather than more wet days, and the rainfall intensity is found to be sensitive to future greenhouse gas emissions while the number of wet days appears to be less affected.
Chien-Yu Tseng, Li-Pen Wang, and Christian Onof
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1540, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new algorithm to better model convective storms. We used advanced tracking methods to analyse 165 storm events in Birmingham (UK) and to reconstruct storm cell lifecycles. We found that cell properties like intensity and size are interrelated and vary over time. The new algorithm, based on vine copulas, accurately simulates these properties and their evolution. It also integrates an exponential model for realistic rainfall patterns, enhancing its hydrological applicability.
Mohammad Ali Farmani, Ali Behrangi, Aniket Gupta, Ahmad Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, and Guo-Yue Niu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1256, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how key hydrological processes enhance soil water retention and release in land surface models, crucial for accurate weather and climate forecasting. Experiments show that soil hydraulics effectively sustain soil moisture. Additionally, allowing surface water ponding and improving soil permeability through macropores both enhance soil moisture persistency in the models.
Caroline Legrand, Benoît Hingray, Bruno Wilhelm, and Martin Ménégoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2139–2166, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2139-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard worldwide. The evolution is typically estimated from multi-model chains, where regional hydrological scenarios are simulated from weather scenarios derived from coarse-resolution atmospheric outputs of climate models. We show that two such chains are able to reproduce, from an atmospheric reanalysis, the 1902–2009 discharge variations and floods of the upper Rhône alpine river, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected.
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Xubin Zeng, and Amanda M. Nelson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2123–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming occurs at a rate of 0.21 K per decade, resulting in about 9.5 % K−1 of water vapor response to temperature from 1993 to 2021. Terrestrial areas experienced greater warming than the ocean, with a ratio of 2 : 1. The total precipitable water change in response to surface temperature changes showed a variation around 6 % K−1–8 % K−1 in the 15–55° N latitude band. Further studies are needed to identify the mechanisms leading to different water vapor responses.
Kyungmin Sung, Max C. A. Torbenson, and James H. Stagge
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2047–2063, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2047-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines centuries of nonstationary trends in meteorological drought and pluvial climatology. A novel approach merges tree-ring proxy data (North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas – NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by temporally downscaling proxy data, correcting biases, and analyzing shared trends in normal and extreme precipitation anomalies. We identify regions experiencing recent unprecedented shifts towards drier or wetter conditions and shifts in seasonality.
Baoying Shan, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Bernard De Baets
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2065–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a convenient and new method to identify the occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and co-occurring droughts and heatwaves (CDHW) across four seasons. Using this method, we could establish the start and/or end dates of drought (or heatwave) events. We found an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and CDHW events in Belgium caused by climate change. We also found that different months have different chances of CDHW events.
Felipe Lobos-Roco, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, and Camilo de Rio
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-110, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
Water resources are fundamental for social, economic, and natural development of (semi-)arid regions. Precipitation decreases due to climate change obligates us to find new water resources. Fog harvesting emerges as a complementary one in regions where it is abundant but untapped. This research proposes a model to estimate fog harvesting potential in coastal (semi-)arid regions. This model could have broader applicability worldwide in regions where fog harvesting could be a viable water source.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Kyle R. Mankin, Sushant Mehan, Timothy R. Green, and David M. Barnard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-58, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 60 gridded climate datasets [ground- (G), satellite- (S), reanalysis-based (R)]. Higher-density station data and less-hilly terrain improved climate data. In mountainous and humid regions, dataset types performed similarly; but R outperformed G when underlying data had low station density. G outperformed S or R datasets, though better streamflow modeling did not always follow. Hydrologic analyses need datasets that better represent climate variable dependencies and complex topography.
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A large population is affected by floods, which leave their footprints through human mortality, migration, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure, during almost every summer monsoon season in India. Despite the massive damage of floods, sub-basin level flood risk assessment is still in its infancy and needs to be improved. Using hydrological and hydrodynamic models, we reconstructed sub-basin level observed floods for the 1901–2020 period.
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause high economic loss due to heavy winds and rainfall, particularly in densely populated regions such as the Pearl River Delta (China). This study provides a reference to set up regional climate models for TC simulations. They contribute to a better TC process understanding and assess the potential changes and risks of TCs in the future. This lays the foundation for hydrodynamical modelling, from which the cities' disaster management and defence could benefit.
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We studied drought in a dataset of possible future river flows and groundwater levels in the UK and found different outcomes for these two sources of water. Throughout the UK, river flows are likely to be lower in future, with droughts more prolonged and severe. However, whilst these changes are also found in some boreholes, in others, higher levels and less severe drought are indicated for the future. This has implications for the future balance between surface water and groundwater below.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Paleogeographical data show that 17–13 ka BP, the Caspian Sea level was 80 m above the current level. There are large disagreements on the genesis of this “Great” Khvalynian transgression of the sea, and we tried to shed light on this issue. Using climate and hydrological models as well as the paleo-reconstructions, we proved that the transgression could be initiated solely by hydroclimatic factors within the deglaciation period in the absence of the glacial meltwater effect.
Joeri B. Reinders and Samuel E. Munoz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 217–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-217-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding presents a major hazard for people and infrastructure along waterways; however, it is challenging to study the likelihood of a flood magnitude occurring regionally due to a lack of long discharge records. We show that hydroclimatic variables like Köppen climate regions and precipitation intensity explain part of the variance in flood frequency distributions and thus reduce the uncertainty of flood probability estimates. This gives water managers a tool to locally improve flood analysis.
Mehrad Rahimpour Asenjan, Francois Brissette, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4355–4367, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are central to climate change impact studies. Some models project a future deemed too hot by many. We looked at how including hot models may skew the result of impact studies. Applied to hydrology, this study shows that hot models do not systematically produce hydrological outliers.
Ross Pidoto and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3957–3975, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3957-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Long continuous time series of meteorological variables (i.e. rainfall, temperature) are required for the modelling of floods. Observed time series are generally too short or not available. Weather generators are models that reproduce observed weather time series. This study extends an existing station-based rainfall model into space by enforcing observed spatial rainfall characteristics. To model other variables (i.e. temperature) the model is then coupled to a simple resampling approach.
Kajsa Maria Parding, Rasmus Emil Benestad, Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, and Julia Lutz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3719–3732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves describe the likelihood of extreme rainfall and are used in hydrology and engineering, for example, for flood forecasting and water management. We develop a model to estimate IDF curves from daily meteorological observations, which are more widely available than the observations on finer timescales (minutes to hours) that are needed for IDF calculations. The method is applied to all data at once, making it efficient and robust to individual errors.
Kaltrina Maloku, Benoit Hingray, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3643-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution precipitation data, needed for many applications in hydrology, are typically rare. Such data can be simulated from daily precipitation with stochastic disaggregation. In this work, multiplicative random cascades are used to disaggregate time series of 40 min precipitation from daily precipitation for 81 Swiss stations. We show that very relevant statistics of precipitation are obtained when precipitation asymmetry is accounted for in a continuous way in the cascade generator.
Theresa Boas, Heye Reemt Bogena, Dongryeol Ryu, Harry Vereecken, Andrew Western, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3143–3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3143-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In our study, we tested the utility and skill of a state-of-the-art forecasting product for the prediction of regional crop productivity using a land surface model. Our results illustrate the potential value and skill of combining seasonal forecasts with modelling applications to generate variables of interest for stakeholders, such as annual crop yield for specific cash crops and regions. In addition, this study provides useful insights for future technical model evaluations and improvements.
Yuanhong You, Chunlin Huang, Zuo Wang, Jinliang Hou, Ying Zhang, and Peipei Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2919–2933, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2919-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the performance of a genetic particle filter which was used as a snow data assimilation scheme across different snow climates. The results demonstrated that the genetic algorithm can effectively solve the problem of particle degeneration and impoverishment in a particle filter algorithm. The system has revealed a low sensitivity to the particle number in point-scale application of the ground snow depth measurement.
Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Nathaniel W. Chaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2787–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2787-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Irrigation has been shown to impact weather and climate, but it has only recently been considered in prediction models. Prescribing where (globally) irrigation takes place is important to accurately simulate its impacts on temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Here, we evaluated three different irrigation maps in a weather model and found that the extent and intensity of irrigated areas and their boundaries are important drivers of weather impacts resulting from human practices.
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Hannes Müller-Thomy, Patrick Nistahl, Mojca Šraj, and Nejc Bezak
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2559–2578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2559-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For rainfall-runoff simulation of a certain area, hydrological models are used, which requires precipitation data and temperature data as input. Since these are often not available as observations, we have tested simulation results from atmospheric models. ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 were tested for Slovenian catchments. Both lead to good simulations results. Their usage enables the use of rainfall-runoff simulation in unobserved catchments as a requisite for, e.g., flood protection measures.
Tuantuan Zhang, Zhongmin Liang, Wentao Li, Jun Wang, Yiming Hu, and Binquan Li
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1945–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1945-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks to correct raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information. We find that the method not only captures the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high but also shows substantially higher bias-correction capabilities than existing standard methods in terms of spatial scale, timescale, and intensity.
Zeyu Xue, Paul Ullrich, and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1909–1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1909-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments and varying the perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables to provide a guideline for this increasingly popular regional modeling method. Overall, we recommend PGW experiments be performed with perturbations to temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the gridpoint scale, depending on the research question.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Zexuan Xu, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel Feldman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1771–1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The goal of this study is to understand the uncertainties of different modeling configurations for simulating hydroclimate responses in the mountainous watershed. We run a group of climate models with various configurations and evaluate them against various reference datasets. This paper integrates a climate model and a hydrology model to have a full understanding of the atmospheric-through-bedrock hydrological processes.
Jolanda J. E. Theeuwen, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Bert V. M. Hamelers, and Stefan C. Dekker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1457–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Evaporation changes over land affect rainfall over land via moisture recycling. We calculated the local moisture recycling ratio globally, which describes the fraction of evaporated moisture that rains out within approx. 50 km of its source location. This recycling peaks in summer as well as over wet and elevated regions. Local moisture recycling provides insight into the local impacts of evaporation changes and can be used to study the influence of regreening on local rainfall.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Bora Shehu, Winfried Willems, Henrike Stockel, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Uwe Haberlandt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1109–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall volumes at varying duration and frequencies are required for many engineering water works. These design volumes have been provided by KOSTRA-DWD in Germany. However, a revision of the KOSTRA-DWD is required, in order to consider the recent state-of-the-art and additional data. For this purpose, in our study, we investigate different methods and data available to achieve the best procedure that will serve as a basis for the development of the new KOSTRA-DWD product.
Sandra M. Hauswirth, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Vincent Beijk, and Niko Wanders
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 501–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts on water availability are important for water managers. We test a hybrid framework based on machine learning models and global input data for generating seasonal forecasts. Our evaluation shows that our discharge and surface water level predictions are able to create reliable forecasts up to 2 months ahead. We show that a hybrid framework, developed for local purposes and combined and rerun with global data, can create valuable information similar to large-scale forecasting models.
Richard Arsenault, Jean-Luc Martel, Frédéric Brunet, François Brissette, and Juliane Mai
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 139–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting flow in rivers where no observation records are available is a daunting task. For decades, hydrological models were set up on these gauges, and their parameters were estimated based on the hydrological response of similar or nearby catchments where records exist. New developments in machine learning have now made it possible to estimate flows at ungauged locations more precisely than with hydrological models. This study confirms the performance superiority of machine learning models.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6413–6426, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Spatial quantification of oceanic moisture contribution to the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) contributes to the reliable assessments of regional water resources and the interpretation of paleo archives in the region. Based on atmospheric reanalysis datasets and numerical moisture tracking, this work reveals the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer.
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6361–6378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods cause enormous damage to infrastructure and agriculture in India. However, the utility of ensemble meteorological forecast for hydrologic prediction has not been examined. Moreover, Indian river basins have a considerable influence of reservoirs that alter the natural flow variability. We developed a hydrologic modelling-based streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
Camille Labrousse, Wolfgang Ludwig, Sébastien Pinel, Mahrez Sadaoui, Andrea Toreti, and Guillaume Lacquement
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6055–6071, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6055-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The interest of this study is to demonstrate that we identify two zones in our study area whose hydroclimatic behaviours are uneven. By investigating relationships between the hydroclimatic conditions in both clusters for past observations with the overall atmospheric functioning, we show that the inequalities are mainly driven by a different control of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns over the area.
Cited articles
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop
Evapotranspiration – Guidelines for computing crop water requirements,
FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, FAO,
https://appgeodb.nancy.inra.fr/biljou/pdf/Allen_FAO1998.pdf (last access: 11 May 2022), 1998. a
Arevalo, E., Lassalle, G., Tétard, S., Maire, A., Sauquet, E., Lambert, P.,
Paumier, A., Villeneuve, B., and Drouineau, H.: An innovative bivariate
approach to detect joint temporal trends in environmental conditions:
Application to large French rivers and diadromous fish,
Sci. Total Environ., 748, 141260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141260, 2020. a, b, c, d
Arismendi, I., Johnson, S. L., Dunham, J. B., Haggerty, R., and Hockman-Wert,
D.: The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate
trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the
Pacific continental United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051448, 2012. a
Arismendi, I., Johnson, S. L., Dunham, J. B., and Haggerty, R.: Descriptors of
natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the
Pacific Northwest of North America, Freshwater Biol., 58, 880–894,
https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.12094, 2013a. a
Arismendi, I., Safeeq, M., Johnson, S. L., Dunham, J. B., and Haggerty, R.:
Increasing synchrony of high temperature and low flow in western North
American streams: double trouble for coldwater biota?, Hydrobiologia, 712,
61–70, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-012-1327-2, 2013b. a
Arismendi, I., Safeeq, M., Dunham, J. B., and Johnson, S. L.: Can air
temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream
temperature?, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 084015,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084015, 2014. a
Bauer, D. F.: Constructing confidence sets using rank statistics,
J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 67, 687–690,
https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1972.10481279, 1972. a
Beaufort, A., Moatar, F., Sauquet, E., Loicq, P., and Hannah, D. M.: Influence
of landscape and hydrological factors on stream–air temperature
relationships at regional scale, Hydrol. Process., 34, 583–597,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13608, 2020. a
Benyahya, L., Caissie, D., St-Hilaire, A., Ouarda, T. B., and Bobée, B.: A
review of statistical water temperature models,
Can. Water Resour. J., 32, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj3203179, 2007. a
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R. A., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., and Boháč, M.:
Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods, Nature,
573, 108–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6, 2019. a
Bruno, D., Belmar, O., Maire, A., Morel, A., Dumont, B., and Datry, T.:
Structural and functional responses of invertebrate communities to climate
change and flow regulation in alpine catchments, Glob. Change Biol., 25,
1612–1628, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14581, 2019. a
Buisson, L. and Grenouillet, G.: Contrasted impacts of climate change on stream
fish assemblages along an environmental gradient,
Divers. Distrib., 15, 613–626, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2009.00565.x, 2009. a
Buisson, L., Blanc, L., and Grenouillet, G.: Modelling stream fish species
distribution in a river network: the relative effects of temperature versus
physical factors, Ecol. Freshw. Fish, 17, 244–257,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0633.2007.00276.x, 2008. a
Bustillo, V., Moatar, F., Ducharne, A., Thiéry, D., and Poirel, A.: A
multimodel comparison for assessing water temperatures under changing climate
conditions via the equilibrium temperature concept: case study of the Middle
Loire River, France, Hydrol. Process., 28, 1507–1524,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9683, 2014. a, b
Caissie, D., Satish, M. G., and El-Jabi, N.: Predicting water temperatures
using a deterministic model: Application on Miramichi River catchments (New
Brunswick, Canada), J. Hydrol., 336, 303–315,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.008, 2007. a
Chandesris, A., Van Looy, K., Diamond, J. S., and Souchon, Y.: Small dams alter thermal regimes of downstream water, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4509–4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4509-2019, 2019. a
Cheng, Y., Voisin, N., Yearsley, J. R., and Nijssen, B.: Reservoirs modify
river thermal regime sensitivity to climate change: a case study in the
southeastern United States, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR025784,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025784, 2020. a, b
Comte, L., Buisson, L., Daufresne, M., and Grenouillet, G.: Climate-induced
changes in the distribution of freshwater fish: observed and predicted
trends, Freshwater Biol., 58, 625–639, https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.12081, 2013. a
Dan Moore, R., Spittlehouse, D., and Story, A.: Riparian microclimate and
stream temperature response to forest harvesting: A review,
J. Am. Water Resour. As., 41, 813–834,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03772.x, 2005. a, b
Domisch, S., Araújo, M. B., Bonada, N., Pauls, S. U., Jähnig, S. C.,
and Haase, P.: Modelling distribution in European stream macroinvertebrates
under future climates, Glob. Change Biol., 19, 752–762,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12107, 2013. a
Ducharne, A.: Importance of stream temperature to climate change impact on water quality, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 797–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-797-2008, 2008. a
Ducharne, A., Sauquet, E., Habets, F., Deque, M., Gascoin, S., Hachour, A., Martin, E., Oudin, L., Page, C., Terray, L., and Thiery, D.: Evolution
potentielle du régime des crues de la Seine sous changement climatique,
La Houille Blanche, 97, 51–57, https://doi.org/10.1051/lhb/2011006,
2011. a
Dugdale, S. J., Hannah, D. M., and Malcolm, I. A.: River temperature modelling:
A review of process-based approaches and future directions,
Earth-Sci. Rev., 175, 97–113, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.10.009, 2017. a, b
Dugdale, S. J., Malcolm, I. A., Kantola, K., and Hannah, D. M.: Stream
temperature under contrasting riparian forest cover: Understanding thermal
dynamics and heat exchange processes, Sci. Total Environ., 610,
1375–1389, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.198, 2018. a
Edmonds, R., Murray, G., and Marra, J.: Influence of partial harvesting on
stream temperatures, chemistry, and turbidity in forests on the western
Olympic Peninsula, Washington, WSU Press, 74, 151–164,
http://hdl.handle.net/2376/1065 (last access: 5 April 2021), 2000. a
Floury, M., Usseglio-Polatera, P., Ferreol, M., Delattre, C., and Souchon, Y.:
Global climate change in large E uropean rivers: long-term effects on
macroinvertebrate communities and potential local confounding factors, Glob. Change Biol., 19, 1085–1099, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12124, 2013. a
Giuntoli, I., Renard, B., Vidal, J.-P., and Bard, A.: Low flows in France and
their relationship to large-scale climate indices, J. Hydrol., 482,
105–118, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.038, 2013. a, b, c, d
Habets, F., Boé, J., Déqué, M., Ducharne, A., Gascoin, S., Hachour, A., Martin, E., Pagé, C., Sauquet, E., Terray, L., and Thiéry, D.: Impact of
climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France, Climatic Change, 121, 771–785, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0934-x, 2013. a, b
Hannah, D. M. and Garner, G.: River water temperature in the United Kingdom:
changes over the 20th century and possible changes over the 21st century,
Prog. Phys. Geog., 39, 68–92, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133314550669, 2015. a
Hannah, D. M., Malcolm, I. A., Soulsby, C., and Youngson, A. F.: Heat exchanges
and temperatures within a salmon spawning stream in the Cairngorms, Scotland:
seasonal and sub-seasonal dynamics, River Res. Appl., 20,
635–652, https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.771, 2004. a
Hari, R. E., Livingstone, D. M., Siber, R., Burkhardt-Holm, P., and Guettinger,
H.: Consequences of climatic change for water temperature and brown trout
populations in Alpine rivers and streams, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 10–26,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.001051.x, 2006. a
Hobeichi, S., Abramowitz, G., and Evans, J. P.: Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3855–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3855-2021, 2021. a
Huntington, T. G.: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle:
review and synthesis, J. Hydrol., 319, 83–95,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.07.003, 2006. a
Hutchison, B. A. and Matt, D. R.: The distribution of solar radiation within a
deciduous forest, Ecol. Monogr., 47, 185–207, https://doi.org/10.2307/1942616,
1977. a
Institut Géographique National (IGN): Descriptif technique BD TOPO, Tech. rep., https://www.cc-saulnois.fr/sig/documents/BDTOPO/DC_BDTOPO_2.pdf (last access: 5 April 2020), 2008. a
Institut Géographique National (IGN): Descriptif technique BD ALTI, Tech. rep., https://geoservices.ign.fr/ressources_documentaires/Espace_documentaire/MODELES_3D/BDALTIV2/DC_BDALTI_2-0.pdf (last access: 5 April 2020), 2011. a
Isaak, D., Wollrab, S., Horan, D., and Chandler, G.: Climate change effects on
stream and river temperatures across the northwest US from 1980–2009 and
implications for salmonid fishes, Climatic Change, 113, 499–524,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0326-z, 2012. a, b
Isaak, D. J., Wenger, S. J., Peterson, E. E., Ver Hoef, J. M., Nagel, D. E., Luce, C. H., Hostetler, S. W., Dunham, J. B., Roper, B. B., Wollrab, S. P., and Chandler, G. L.: The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the
western US: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user
community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams, Water Resour. Res., 53, 9181–9205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969, 2017. a
Jackson, F., Hannah, D. M., Fryer, R., Millar, C., and Malcolm, I.: Development
of spatial regression models for predicting summer river temperatures from
landscape characteristics: Implications for land and fisheries management,
Hydrol. Process, 31, 1225–1238, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11087, 2017. a
Jackson, F. L., Fryer, R. J., Hannah, D. M., Millar, C. P., and Malcolm, I. A.:
A spatio-temporal statistical model of maximum daily river temperatures to
inform the management of Scotland's Atlantic salmon rivers under climate
change, Sci. Total Environ., 612, 1543–1558,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.010, 2018. a
Johnson, S. L.: Factors influencing stream temperatures in small streams:
substrate effects and a shading experiment,
Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 61, 913–923, https://doi.org/10.1139/f04-040, 2004. a
Kaushal, S. S., Likens, G. E., Jaworski, N. A., Pace, M. L., Sides, A. M.,
Seekell, D., Belt, K. T., Secor, D. H., and Wingate, R. L.: Rising stream and
river temperatures in the United States,
Front. Ecol. Environ., 8, 461–466, https://doi.org/10.1890/090037, 2010. a, b, c
Kędra, M.: Regional response to global warming: Water temperature trends
in semi-natural mountain river systems, Water, 12, 283,
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12010283, 2020. a, b
Kelleher, C., Wagener, T., Gooseff, M., McGlynn, B., McGuire, K., and Marshall,
L.: Investigating controls on the thermal sensitivity of Pennsylvania
streams, Hydrol. Process., 26, 771–785, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8186, 2012. a, b
Kirk, M. A. and Rahel, F. J.: Air temperatures over-predict changes to stream
fish assemblages with climate warming compared with water temperatures,
Ecological Applications, 32, e02465, https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2465, 2022. a
Kurylyk, B. L., Bourque, C. P.-A., and MacQuarrie, K. T. B.: Potential surface temperature and shallow groundwater temperature response to climate change: an example from a small forested catchment in east-central New Brunswick (Canada), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2701–2716, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2701-2013, 2013. a
Kurylyk, B. L., MacQuarrie, K. T., and Voss, C. I.: Climate change impacts on
the temperature and magnitude of groundwater discharge from shallow,
unconfined aquifers, Water Resour. Res., 50, 3253–3274,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014588, 2014. a, b
Lennox, R. J., Crook, D. A., Moyle, P. B., Struthers, D. P., and Cooke, S. J.:
Toward a better understanding of freshwater fish responses to an increasingly
drought-stricken world, Rev. Fish Biol. Fisher., 29, 71–92,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-018-09545-9, 2019. a
Li, G., Jackson, C. R., and Kraseski, K. A.: Modeled riparian stream shading:
Agreement with field measurements and sensitivity to riparian conditions,
J. Hydrol., 428, 142–151, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.032,
2012. a
Maire, A., Thierry, E., Viechtbauer, W., and Daufresne, M.: Poleward shift in
large-river fish communities detected with a novel meta-analysis framework,
Freshwater Biol., 64, 1143–1156, https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13291, 2019. a, b, c
Majdi, N., Uthoff, J., Traunspurger, W., Laffaille, P., and Maire, A.: Effect
of water warming on the structure of biofilm-dwelling communities, Ecol. Indic., 117, 106622, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106622, 2020. a
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945. a
Mantua, N., Tohver, I., and Hamlet, A.: Climate change impacts on streamflow
extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences
for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Climatic Change, 102,
187–223, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2, 2010. a, b
Mayer, T. D.: Controls of summer stream temperature in the Pacific Northwest,
J. Hydrol., 475, 323–335, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.012,
2012. a
McCann, E. L., Johnson, N. S., and Pangle, K. L.: Corresponding long-term
shifts in stream temperature and invasive fish migration,
Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 75, 772–778, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0195,
2018. a
Meisner, J. D.: Potential loss of thermal habitat for brook trout, due to
climatic warming, in two southern Ontario streams,
T. Am. Fish. Soc., 119, 282–291,
https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8659(1990)119<0282:PLOTHF>2.3.CO;2, 1990. a
Mohseni, O., Erickson, T. R., and Stefan, H. G.: Sensitivity of stream
temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected under a
global warming scenario, Water Resour. Res., 35, 3723–3733,
https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193, 1999. a
Morales-Marín, L., Rokaya, P., Sanyal, P., Sereda, J., and Lindenschmidt,
K.: Changes in streamflow and water temperature affect fish habitat in the
Athabasca River basin in the context of climate change,
Ecol. Model.,
407, 108718, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108718, 2019. a
Morel, M., Booker, D. J., Gob, F., and Lamouroux, N.: Intercontinental
predictions of river hydraulic geometry from catchment physical
characteristics, J. Hydrol., 582, 124292,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124292, 2020. a, b
Nelson, K. C. and Palmer, M. A.: Stream temperature surges under urbanization
and climate change: data, models, and responses 1, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 43, 440–452,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00034.x, 2007. a
Niedrist, G. H. and Füreder, L.: Real-time warming of alpine streams: (Re)defining invertebrates' temperature preferences, River Res. Appl., 37, 283–293, https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3638, 2021. a
O'Gorman, E. J., Pichler, D. E., Adams, G., Benstead, J. P., Cohen, H., Craig, N., Cross, W. F., Demars, B. O., Friberg, N., Gislason, G. M., and Gudmundsdottir, R.:
Impacts of warming on the structure and functioning of aquatic communities:
individual-to ecosystem-level responses,
Adv. Ecol. Res., 47,
81–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-398315-2.00002-8, 2012. a
Olden, J. D. and Naiman, R. J.: Incorporating thermal regimes into
environmental flows assessments: modifying dam operations to restore
freshwater ecosystem integrity, Freshwater Biol., 55, 86–107,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2009.02179.x, 2010. a
Orr, H. G., Simpson, G. L., des Clers, S., Watts, G., Hughes, M., Hannaford, J., Dunbar, M. J., Laizé, C. L., Wilby, R. L., Battarbee, R. W., and Evans, R.:
Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales, Hydrol. Process., 29, 752–766, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10181, 2015. a, b, c
Palmer, M. A., Lettenmaier, D. P., Poff, N. L., Postel, S. L., Richter, B., and
Warner, R.: Climate change and river ecosystems: protection and adaptation
options, Environ. Manage., 44, 1053–1068,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-009-9329-1, 2009. a
Pella, H., Lejot, J., Lamouroux, N., and Snelder, T.: Le réseau
hydrographique théorique (RHT) français et ses attributs
environnementaux, Géomorphologie: relief, processus, environnement, 18,
317–336, https://doi.org/10.4000/geomorphologie.9933, 2012. a
Perry, L. G., Reynolds, L. V., Beechie, T. J., Collins, M. J., and Shafroth,
P. B.: Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration
planning and design, Ecohydrology, 8, 863–879, https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1645, 2015. a, b
Pettitt, A. N.: A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem,
Applied Statistics, 28, 126–135, https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729, 1979. a
Poole, G. C. and Berman, C. H.: An ecological perspective on in-stream
temperature: natural heat dynamics and mechanisms of human-caused thermal
degradation, Environ. Manage., 27, 787–802,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188, 2001. a
Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., Fekete, B. M., Franssen, W., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., and Hagemann, S.:
Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment,
P. Ntl. A. Sci. USA, 111, 3262–3267, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222473110, 2014. a
Ptak, M., Choiński, A., and Kirviel, J.: Long-term water temperature
fluctuations in coastal rivers (southern Baltic) in Poland,
Bulletin of Geography: Physical Geography Series, 11, 35–42,
https://doi.org/10.1515/bgeo-2016-0013, 2016. a
Ptak, M., Sojka, M., Kałuża, T., Choiński, A., and Nowak, B.:
Long-term water temperature trends of the Warta River in the years
1960–2009, Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology, 19, 441–451,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2019.03.007, 2019a. a
Ptak, M., Sojka, M., and Kozłowski, M.: The increasing of maximum lake water
temperature in lowland lakes of Central Europe: case study of the Polish
Lakeland, in: Annales de Limnologie [International Journal of Limnology],
55, 6, EDP Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1051/limn/2019005, 2019b. a
Quintana-Segui, P., Le Moigne, P., Durand, Y., Martin, E., Habets, F., Baillon,
M., Canellas, C., Franchisteguy, L., and Morel, S.: Analysis of near-surface
atmospheric variables: Validation of the SAFRAN analysis over France, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 47, 92–107,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1636.1, 2008. a, b
Romaní, A. M., Boulêtreau, S., Diaz Villanueva, V., Garabetian, F., Marxsen, J., Norf, H., Pohlon, E., and Weitere, M.: Microbes in aquatic
biofilms under the effect of changing climate.,
Climate change and microbial ecology: Current research and future trends, 83–96, https://ri.conicet.gov.ar/handle/11336/109695 (last access: 11 May 2022), 2016. a
Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Wild, M., Brunetti, M., Guijarro, J. A., Hakuba, M. Z.,
Calbó, J., Mystakidis, S., and Bartok, B.: Reassessment and update of
long-term trends in downward surface shortwave radiation over Europe
(1939–2012), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 9555–9569,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023321, 2015. a
Scheffers, B. R., De Meester, L., Bridge, T. C., Hoffmann, A. A., Pandolfi, J. M., Corlett, R. T., Butchart, S. H., Pearce-Kelly, P., Kovacs, K. M., Dudgeon, D., and Pacifici, M.: The broad footprint of climate change from genes to
biomes to people, Science, 354, 6313, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf7671, 2016. a
Seavy, N. E., Gardali, T., Golet, G. H., Griggs, F. T., Howell, C. A., Kelsey,
R., Small, S. L., Viers, J. H., and Weigand, J. F.: Why climate change makes
riparian restoration more important than ever: recommendations for practice
and research, Ecological Restoration, 27, 330–338,
https://doi.org/10.3368/er.27.3.330, 2009. a
Sen, P. K.: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau,
J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379–1389,
https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934, 1968. a
Seyedhashemi, H., Moatar, F., Vidal, J.-P., Diamond, J. S., Beaufort, A.,
Chandesris, A., and Valette, L.: Thermal signatures identify the influence of
dams and ponds on stream temperature at the regional scale, Sci. Total Environ., 766, 142667, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142667, 2020. a, b, c
Seyedhashemi, H., Vidal, J.-P., Moatar, F., and Thiéry, D.: Replication Data for: Regional, multi-decadal analysis reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature (https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-450), Portail Data INRAE [data set], https://doi.org/10.15454/PTY9R7, 2022. a
Sinokrot, B., Stefan, H., McCormick, J., and Eaton, J.: Modeling of climate
change effects on stream temperatures and fish habitats below dams and near
groundwater inputs, Climatic Change, 30, 181–200, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091841,
1995. a
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., and Vogt, J. V.: Pan-European seasonal trends and
recent changes of drought frequency and severity,
Global Planet. Change, 148, 113–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013, 2017. a
Stefan, H. G. and Preud'homme, E. B.: Stream temperature estimation from air
temperature 1, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 29,
27–45, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1993.tb01502.x, 1993. a
Stefani, F., Schiavon, A., Tirozzi, P., Gomarasca, S., and Marziali, L.:
Functional response of fish communities in a multistressed freshwater world,
Sci. Total Environ., 740, 139902,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139902, 2020. a
Taylor, C. A. and Stefan, H. G.: Shallow groundwater temperature response to
climate change and urbanization, J. Hydrol., 375, 601–612,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.009, 2009. a
Thiéry, D.: Forecast of changes in piezometric levels by a lumped
hydrological model, J. Hydrol., 97, 129–148,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(88)90070-4, 1988. a, b, c
Thiéry, D. and Moutzopoulos, C.: Un modèle hydrologique spatialisé
pour la simulation de très grands bassins: le modèle EROS formé
de grappes de modèles globaux élémentaires, VIIIèmes
journées hydrologiques de l'ORSTOM” Régionalisation en hydrologie,
application au développement”, edited by: Le Barbé and Servat, E.,
285–295, https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01061971 (last acccess: 4 May 2020), 1995. a, b, c
Tisseuil, C., Vrac, M., Grenouillet, G., Wade, A. J., Gevrey, M., Oberdorff,
T., Grodwohl, J.-B., and Lek, S.: Strengthening the link between climate,
hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of
climate change on freshwater biodiversity, Sci. Total Environ.,
424, 193–201, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.02.035, 2012. a
Tramblay, Y., Koutroulis, A., Samaniego, L., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Volaire,
F., Boone, A., Le Page, M., Llasat, M. C., Albergel, C., Burak, S.,
Cailleret, M., Cindrić Kalin, K., Davi, H., Dupuy, J.-L., Greve, P.,
Grillakis, M., Hanich, L., Jarlan, L., Martin-StPaul, N., Martínez-Vilalta,
J., Mouillot, F., Pulido-Velazquez, D., Quintana-Seguí, P., Renard, D.,
Turco, M., Türkeş, M., Trigo, R., Vidal, J.-P., Vilagrosa, A., Zribi,
M., and Polcher, J.: Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean
region under future climate scenarios, Earth-Sci. Rev., 210, 103348,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348, 2020. a
Valette, L., Piffady, J., Chandesris, A., and Souchon, Y.: SYRAH-CE:
description des données et modélisation du risque d’altération
hydromorphologique des cours d’eau pour l’état des lieux DCE, Rapport
Technique Onema-Irstea, 104 pp.,
http://oai.afbiodiversite.fr/cindocoai/download/PUBLI/1185/1/2012_108.pdf_4080Ko (last acccess: 12 May 2020),
2012. a, b
van Looy, K. and Tormos, T.: Indicateurs spatialisés du fonctionnement des
corridors rivulaires, Tech. rep., Irstea, 37 pp.,
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02599341 (last acccess: 12 May 2020), 2013. a
Van Vliet, M., Ludwig, F., Zwolsman, J., Weedon, G., and Kabat, P.: Global
river temperatures and sensitivity to atmospheric warming and changes in
river flow, Water Resour. Res., 47, 2, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009198, 2011. a, b
van Vliet, M. T., Franssen, W. H., Yearsley, J. R., Ludwig, F., Haddeland, I.,
Lettenmaier, D. P., and Kabat, P.: Global river discharge and water
temperature under climate change, Global Environ. Chang., 23, 450–464,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.002, 2013. a
Vicente-Serrano, S., Hannaford, J., Murphy, C., Peña Gallardo, M.,
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Domínguez-Castro, F., López Moreno, J. I.,
Beguería, S., Noguear, I., Harrigan, S., and Vidal, J.-P.: Climate,
irrigation, and land-cover change explain streamflow trends in countries
bordering the Northeast Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
10821–10833, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084084, 2019. a
Vidal, J.-P., Martin, E., Franchistéguy, L., Baillon, M., and Soubeyroux,
J.-M.: A 50-year high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the
Safran system, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1627–1644,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2003, 2010. a, b, c, d
Vidal, J.-P., Hingray, B., Magand, C., Sauquet, E., and Ducharne, A.: Hierarchy of climate and hydrological uncertainties in transient low-flow projections, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, 2016.
a
Wasson, J.-G., Chandesris, A., Pella, H., and Blanc, L.: Typology and reference
conditions for surface water bodies in France: the hydro-ecoregion approach,
TemaNord, 566, 37–41,
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00475620/document (last access: 10 November 2021), 2002. a
Webb, B.: Trends in stream and river temperature, Hydrol. Process, 10,
205–226,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199602)10:2<205::AID-HYP358>3.0.CO;2-1, 1996. a
Webb, B. and Walling, D.: Long-term variability in the thermal impact of river
impoundment and regulation, Appl. Geogr., 16, 211–223,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0143-6228(96)00007-0, 1996. a, b
Webb, B. and Walling, D.: Complex summer water temperature behaviour below a UK
regulating reservoir, Regul. River, 13, 463–477,
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1646(199709/10)13:5<463::AID-RRR470>3.0.CO;2-1,
1997. a
Webb, B. W., Hannah, D. M., Moore, D. R., Brown, L. E., and Nobilis, F.: Recent
advances in stream and river temperature research, Hydrol. Process., 22, 902–918, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6994, 2008. a, b, c
Wilby, R. and Johnson, M.: Climate variability and implications for keeping
rivers cool in England, Climate Risk Management, 30, 100259,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100259, 2020. a, b
Wondzell, S. M., Diabat, M., and Haggerty, R.: What matters most: are future
stream temperatures more sensitive to changing air temperatures, discharge,
or riparian vegetation?, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 55, 116–132, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12707, 2019. a
Woodward, G., Perkins, D. M., and Brown, L. E.: Climate change and freshwater
ecosystems: impacts across multiple levels of organization,
Philos. T. R. Soc. B., 365, 2093–2106,
https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0055, 2010. a
Yearsley, J. R.: A semi-Lagrangian water temperature model for
advection-dominated river systems, Water Resour. Res., 45, 12,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007629, 2009. a
Zaidel, P. A., Roy, A. H., Houle, K. M., Lambert, B., Letcher, B. H., Nislow,
K. H., and Smith, C.: Impacts of small dams on stream temperature, Ecol. Indic., 120, 106878, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106878, 2020. a
Zhu, S., Bonacci, O., Oskoruš, D., Hadzima-Nyarko, M., and Wu, S.: Long
term variations of river temperature and the influence of air temperature and
river discharge: case study of Kupa River watershed in Croatia,
J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 67, 305–313, https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2019-0019,
2019. a
Zobrist, J., Schoenenberger, U., Figura, S., and Hug, S. J.: Long-term trends
in Swiss rivers sampled continuously over 39 years reflect changes in
geochemical processes and pollution,
Environ. Sci. Pollut. R., 25, 16788–16809, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1679-x, 2018. a, b
Short summary
Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained due to a paucity of long-term data. Using a thermal model, this study provides a large-scale understanding of the evolution of stream temperature over a long period (1963–2019). This research highlights that air temperature and streamflow can exert joint influence on stream temperature trends, and riparian shading in small mountainous streams may mitigate warming in stream temperatures.
Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained...
