Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2449–2467, 2022
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2449–2467, 2022
Research article
11 May 2022
Research article | 11 May 2022

The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the North Atlantic Oscillation index for forecasting water resource drought

William Rust et al.

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Cited articles

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Allen, M. R. and Smith, L. A.: Monte Carlo SSA: Detecting irregular oscillations in the Presence of Colored Noise, J. Climate, 9, 3373–3404,<3373:MCSDIO>2.0.CO;2, 1996. 
Barker, L. J., Hannaford, J., Parry, S., Smith, K. A., Tanguy, M., and Prudhomme, C.: Historic hydrological droughts 1891–2015: systematic characterisation for a diverse set of catchments across the UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4583–4602,, 2019.  
Beverly, C. and Hocking, M.: Predicting Groundwater Response Times and Catchment Impacts From Land Use Change, Aust. J. Water Resour., 16, 29–47,, 2012. 
Bloomfield, J. P.: The role of diagenesis in the hydrogeological stratification of carbonate aquifers: An example from the Chalk at Fair Cross, Berkshire, UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 1, 19–33,, 1997. 
Short summary
We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK. Specifically, multi-year cycles in the NAO are shown to influence the frequency of droughts and this influence changes considerably over time. We show that the influence of these varying controls is similar to the projected effects of climate change on water resources. We also show that these time-varying behaviours have important implications for water resource forecasts used for drought planning.