Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2449-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2449-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 May 2022
Research article |
| 11 May 2022
| 11 May 2022
The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the North Atlantic Oscillation index for forecasting water resource drought
William Rust
Cranfield Water Science Institute (CWSI), Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
John P. Bloomfield
British Geological Survey, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
Mark Cuthbert
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Park Place, Cardiff, CF10 3AT, United Kingdom
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Ron Corstanje
Centre for Environment and Agricultural Informatics, Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
Ian Holman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Cranfield Water Science Institute (CWSI), Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
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William Rust, Mark Cuthbert, John Bloomfield, Ron Corstanje, Nicholas Howden, and Ian Holman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2223–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2223-2021, 2021
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In this paper, we find evidence for the cyclical behaviour (on a 7-year basis) in UK streamflow records that match the main cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, we find that the strength of these 7-year cycles in streamflow is dependent on proportional contributions from groundwater and the response times of the underlying groundwater systems. This may allow for improvements to water management practices through better understanding of long-term streamflow behaviour.
William Rust, Ian Holman, John Bloomfield, Mark Cuthbert, and Ron Corstanje
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3233–3245, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019, 2019
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We show that major groundwater resources in the UK exhibit strong multi-year cycles, accounting for up to 40 % of total groundwater level variability. By comparing these cycles with recorded widespread groundwater droughts over the past 60 years, we provide evidence that climatic systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation) ultimately drive drought-risk periods in UK groundwater. The recursive nature of these drought-risk periods may lead to improved preparedness for future droughts.
Kathryn A. Leeming, John P. Bloomfield, Gemma Coxon, and Yanchen Zheng
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-202, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-202, 2023
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In this work we characterise annual patterns in baseflow, the component of streamflow that comes from subsurface storage. Our research identified early-, mid-, and late-seasonality of baseflow across catchments in Great Britain over two time blocks: 1976–1995 and 1996–2015, and found that many catchments have earlier seasonal patterns of baseflow in the second time period. These changes are linked to changes in climate signals: snow-melt in highland catchments and effective rainfall changes.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
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Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Abrar Habib, Athanasios Paschalis, Adrian P. Butler, Christian Onof, John P. Bloomfield, and James P. R. Sorensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-27, 2023
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Components of the hydrological cycle exhibit a “memory” in their behaviour which quantifies how long a variable would stay at high/low values. Being able to model and understand what affects it is vital for an accurate representation of the hydrological elements. In the current work, it is found that rainfall affects the fractal behaviour of groundwater levels, which implies that changes to rainfall due to climate change will change the periods of flood and drought in groundwater-fed catchments.
Louisa D. Oldham, Jim Freer, Gemma Coxon, Nicholas Howden, John P. Bloomfield, and Christopher Jackson
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stoPET is a new stochastic potential evapotranspiration (PET) generator for the globe at hourly resolution. Many stochastic weather generators are used to generate stochastic rainfall time series; however, no such model exists for stochastically generating plausible PET time series. As such, stoPET represents a significant methodological advance. stoPET generate many realizations of PET to conduct climate studies related to the water balance, agriculture, water resources, and ecology.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
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Groundwater is increasingly being included in large-scale (continental to global) land surface and hydrologic simulations. However, it is challenging to evaluate these simulations because groundwater is
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E. Andrés Quichimbo, Michael Bliss Singer, Katerina Michaelides, Daniel E. J. Hobley, Rafael Rosolem, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6893–6917, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6893-2021, 2021
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Understanding and quantifying water partitioning in dryland regions are of key importance to anticipate the future impacts of climate change in water resources and dryland ecosystems. Here, we have developed a simple hydrological model (DRYP) that incorporates the key processes of water partitioning in drylands. DRYP is a modular, versatile, and parsimonious model that can be used to anticipate and plan for climatic and anthropogenic changes to water fluxes and storage in dryland regions.
Doris E. Wendt, John P. Bloomfield, Anne F. Van Loon, Margaret Garcia, Benedikt Heudorfer, Joshua Larsen, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3113–3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3113-2021, 2021
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Managing water demand and supply during droughts is complex, as highly pressured human–water systems can overuse water sources to maintain water supply. We evaluated the impact of drought policies on water resources using a socio-hydrological model. For a range of hydrogeological conditions, we found that integrated drought policies reduce baseflow and groundwater droughts most if extra surface water is imported, reducing the pressure on water resources during droughts.
John P. Bloomfield, Mengyi Gong, Benjamin P. Marchant, Gemma Coxon, and Nans Addor
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5355–5379, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5355-2021, 2021
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Groundwater provides flow, known as baseflow, to surface streams and rivers. It is important as it sustains the flow of many rivers at times of water stress. However, it may be affected by water management practices. Statistical models have been used to show that abstraction of groundwater may influence baseflow. Consequently, it is recommended that information on groundwater abstraction is included in future assessments and predictions of baseflow.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Michael Bliss Singer, Mark O. Cuthbert, Dar Roberts, Kelly K. Caylor, Romy Sabathier, and John Stella
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3713–3729, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3713-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3713-2021, 2021
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Intensified drying of soil and grassland vegetation is raising the impact of fire severity and extent in Southern California. While browned grassland is a common sight during the dry season, this study has shown that there is a pronounced shift in the timing of senescence, due to changing climate conditions favoring milder winter temperatures and increased precipitation variability. Vegetation may be limited in its ability to adapt to these shifts, as drought periods become more frequent.
William Rust, Mark Cuthbert, John Bloomfield, Ron Corstanje, Nicholas Howden, and Ian Holman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2223–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2223-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2223-2021, 2021
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Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, 2021
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The variety of human and natural processes in the land system can be modelled in many different ways. However, little is known about how and why basic model assumptions affect model results. We compared two models that represent land use in completely distinct ways and found several results that differed greatly. We identify the main assumptions that caused these differences and therefore key issues that need to be addressed for more robust model development.
Gabriel C. Rau, Mark O. Cuthbert, R. Ian Acworth, and Philipp Blum
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 6033–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-6033-2020, 2020
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This work provides an important generalisation of a previously developed method that quantifies subsurface barometric efficiency using the groundwater level response to Earth and atmospheric tides. The new approach additionally allows the quantification of hydraulic conductivity and specific storage. This enables improved and rapid assessment of subsurface processes and properties using standard pressure measurements.
Doris E. Wendt, Anne F. Van Loon, John P. Bloomfield, and David M. Hannah
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4853–4868, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4853-2020, 2020
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Groundwater use changes the availability of groundwater, especially during droughts. This study investigates the impact of groundwater use on groundwater droughts. A methodological framework is presented that was developed and applied to the UK. We identified an asymmetric impact of groundwater use on droughts, which highlights the relation between short-term and long-term strategies for sustainable groundwater use.
Gemma Coxon, Nans Addor, John P. Bloomfield, Jim Freer, Matt Fry, Jamie Hannaford, Nicholas J. K. Howden, Rosanna Lane, Melinda Lewis, Emma L. Robinson, Thorsten Wagener, and Ross Woods
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020, 2020
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We present the first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Great Britain. The dataset collates river flows, catchment attributes, and catchment boundaries for 671 catchments across Great Britain. We characterise the topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soils, hydrogeology, human influence, and discharge uncertainty of each catchment. The dataset is publicly available for the community to use in a wide range of environmental and modelling analyses.
Bentje Brauns, Daniela Cuba, John P. Bloomfield, David M. Hannah, Christopher Jackson, Ben P. Marchant, Benedikt Heudorfer, Anne F. Van Loon, Hélène Bessière, Bo Thunholm, and Gerhard Schubert
Proc. IAHS, 383, 297–305, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-297-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-297-2020, 2020
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In Europe, ca. 65% of drinking water is groundwater. Its replenishment depends on rainfall, but droughts may cause groundwater levels to fall below normal. These
groundwater droughtscan limit supply, making it crucial to understand their regional connection. The Groundwater Drought Initiative (GDI) assesses spatial patterns in historic—recent groundwater droughts across Europe for the first time. Using an example dataset, we describe the background to the GDI and its methodological approach.
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020
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Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Rosanna A. Lane, Gemma Coxon, Jim E. Freer, Thorsten Wagener, Penny J. Johnes, John P. Bloomfield, Sheila Greene, Christopher J. A. Macleod, and Sim M. Reaney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4011–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019, 2019
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We evaluated four hydrological model structures and their parameters on over 1100 catchments across Great Britain, considering modelling uncertainties. Models performed well for most catchments but failed in parts of Scotland and south-eastern England. Failures were often linked to inconsistencies in the water balance. This research shows what conceptual lumped models can achieve, gives insights into where and why these models may fail, and provides a benchmark of national modelling capability.
William Rust, Ian Holman, John Bloomfield, Mark Cuthbert, and Ron Corstanje
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3233–3245, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019, 2019
Short summary
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We show that major groundwater resources in the UK exhibit strong multi-year cycles, accounting for up to 40 % of total groundwater level variability. By comparing these cycles with recorded widespread groundwater droughts over the past 60 years, we provide evidence that climatic systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation) ultimately drive drought-risk periods in UK groundwater. The recursive nature of these drought-risk periods may lead to improved preparedness for future droughts.
John Beale, Boris Snapir, Toby Waine, Jonathan Evans, and Ronald Corstanje
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-294, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Knowledge of soil moisture is important managing their agricultural crops controlling irrigation, predicting flows in rivers and streams, weather forecasting and climate modelling. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) from satellites can provide wide area coverage on a regular basis. This paper investigates the magnitude of the uncertainties that are influenced by soil properties to evaluate the role of existing soil databases in soil moisture retrieval and interpretation.
Seshagiri Rao Kolusu, Mohammad Shamsudduha, Martin C. Todd, Richard G. Taylor, David Seddon, Japhet J. Kashaigili, Girma Y. Ebrahim, Mark O. Cuthbert, James P. R. Sorensen, Karen G. Villholth, Alan M. MacDonald, and Dave A. MacLeod
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1751–1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1751-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1751-2019, 2019
John P. Bloomfield, Benjamin P. Marchant, and Andrew A. McKenzie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1393–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1393-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1393-2019, 2019
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Groundwater is susceptible to drought due to natural variations in climate; however, to date there is no evidence of a relationship between climate change and groundwater drought. Using two long groundwater level records from the UK, we document increases in frequency, magnitude and intensity and changes in duration of groundwater drought associated with climate warming and infer that, given the extent of shallow groundwater globally, warming may widely effect changes to groundwater droughts.
Ron Corstanje, Theresa G. Mercer, Jane R. Rickson, Lynda K. Deeks, Paul Newell-Price, Ian Holman, Cedric Kechavarsi, and Toby W. Waine
Solid Earth, 8, 1003–1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-1003-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-1003-2017, 2017
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This research assessed whether physical soil properties can be used to indicate the quality of British soils in terms of their delivery of ecosystem goods and services. A prioritised list of physical
soil quality indicators(SQIs) were tested for robustness, spatial and temporal variability, and expected rate of change. Seven SQIs were selected: soil packing density, water retention characteristics, aggregate stability, rate of soil erosion, soil depth, soil structure and soil sealing.
J. P. Bloomfield, B. P. Marchant, S. H. Bricker, and R. B. Morgan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4327–4344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015, 2015
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To improve the design of drought monitoring networks and water resource management during episodes of drought, there is a need for a better understanding of spatial variations in the response of aquifers to major meteorological droughts. This paper is the first to describe a suite of methods to quantify such variations. Using an analysis of groundwater level data for a case study from the UK, the influence of catchment characteristics on the varied response of groundwater to droughts is explored
A. Chiverton, J. Hannaford, I. P. Holman, R. Corstanje, C. Prudhomme, T. M. Hess, and J. P. Bloomfield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2395–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2395-2015, 2015
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Current hydrological change detection methods are subject to a host of limitations. This paper develops a new method, temporally shifting variograms (TSVs), which characterises variability in the river flow regime using several parameters, changes in which can then be attributed to precipitation characteristics. We demonstrate the use of the method through application to 94 UK catchments, showing that periods of extremes as well as more subtle changes can be detected.
C. K. Folland, J. Hannaford, J. P. Bloomfield, M. Kendon, C. Svensson, B. P. Marchant, J. Prior, and E. Wallace
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2353–2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2353-2015, 2015
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The English Lowlands is a heavily populated, water-stressed region, which is vulnerable to long droughts typically associated with dry winters. We conduct a long-term (1910-present) quantitative analysis of precipitation, flow and groundwater droughts for the region, and then review potential climatic drivers. No single driver is dominant, but we demonstrate a physical link between La Nina conditions, winter rainfall and long droughts in the region.
J. P. Bloomfield and B. P. Marchant
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4769–4787, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4769-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4769-2013, 2013
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Jennie C. Steyaert and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1071–1088, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1071-2024, 2024
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Reservoirs impact all river systems in the United States, yet their operations are difficult to quantify due to limited data. Using historical reservoir operations, we find that storage has declined over the past 40 years, with clear regional differences. We observe that active storage ranges are increasing in arid regions and decreasing in humid regions. By evaluating reservoir model assumptions, we find that they may miss out on seasonal dynamics and can underestimate storage.
Jessica A. Eisma, Gerrit Schoups, Jeffrey C. Davids, and Nick van de Giesen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3565–3579, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3565-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3565-2023, 2023
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Citizen scientists often submit high-quality data, but a robust method for assessing data quality is needed. This study develops a semi-automated program that characterizes the mistakes made by citizen scientists by grouping them into communities of citizen scientists with similar mistake tendencies and flags potentially erroneous data for further review. This work may help citizen science programs assess the quality of their data and can inform training practices.
Wei Xia, Taimoor Akhtar, and Christine A. Shoemaker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3651–3671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3651-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3651-2022, 2022
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The common practice of calibrating lake hydrodynamic models only to temperature data is shown to be unable to reproduce the flow dynamics well. We proposed a new dynamically normalized objective function (DYNO) for multivariable calibration to be used with parallel or serial optimization methods. DYNO is successfully applied to simultaneously calibrate the temperature and velocity of a 3-dimensional tropical lake model.
Shuang Song, Shuai Wang, Xutong Wu, Yongyuan Huang, and Bojie Fu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2035–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2035-2022, 2022
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A reasonable assessment of the contribution of the water resources in a river basin to domestic crops supplies will be the first step in balancing the water–food nexus. Our results showed that although the Yellow River basin had reduced its virtual water outflow, its importance to crop production in China had been increasing when water footprint networks were considered. Our complexity-based approach provides a new perspective for understanding changes in a basin with a severe water shortage.
Yuxue Guo, Xinting Yu, Yue-Ping Xu, Hao Chen, Haiting Gu, and Jingkai Xie
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We developed an AI-based management methodology to assess forecast quality and forecast-informed reservoir operation performance together due to uncertain inflow forecasts. Results showed that higher forecast performance could lead to improved reservoir operation, while uncertain forecasts were more valuable than deterministic forecasts. Moreover, the relationship between the forecast horizon and reservoir operation was complex and depended on operating configurations and performance measures.
Bin Liu, Zhenghui Xie, Shuang Liu, Yujing Zeng, Ruichao Li, Longhuan Wang, Yan Wang, Binghao Jia, Peihua Qin, Si Chen, Jinbo Xie, and ChunXiang Shi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-387-2021, 2021
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We implemented both urban water use schemes in a model (Weather Research and Forecasting model) and assessed their cooling effects with different amounts of water in different parts of the city (center, suburbs, and rural areas) for both road sprinkling and urban irrigation by model simulation. Then, we developed an optimization scheme to find out the optimal water use strategies for mitigating high urban temperatures.
Xi Yang, La Zhuo, Pengxuan Xie, Hongrong Huang, Bianbian Feng, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 169–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-169-2021, 2021
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Maximizing economic benefits with higher water productivity or lower water footprint is the core sustainable goal of agricultural water resources management. Here we look at spatial and temporal variations and developments in both production-based (PWF) and economic value-based (EWF) water footprints of crops, by taking a case study for China. A synergy evaluation index is proposed to further quantitatively evaluate the synergies and trade-offs between PWF and EWF.
Xingyu Zhou, Xiaorong Huang, Hongbin Zhao, and Kai Ma
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4091-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4091-2020, 2020
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The main objective of this work is to discuss the cumulative effects on flow regime with the construction of cascade reservoirs. A revised IHA (indicators of hydrologic alteration) method was developed by using a projection pursuit method based on the real-coded accelerated genetic algorithm in this study. Through this method, IHA parameters with a high contribution to hydrological-alteration evaluation could be selected out and given high weight to reduce the redundancy among the IHA metrics.
Hatem Chouchane, Maarten S. Krol, and Arjen Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3015–3031, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3015-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3015-2020, 2020
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Previous studies on water saving through food trade focussed either on comparing water productivities among countries or on analysing food trade in relation to national water endowments. Here, we consider, for the first time, both differences in water productivities and water endowments to analyse national comparative advantages. Our study reveals that blue water scarcity can be reduced to sustainable levels by changing cropping patterns while maintaining current levels of global production.
Nabil El Moçayd, Suchul Kang, and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1467–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1467-2020, 2020
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The present work addresses the impact of climate change on the Water Highway project in Morocco. This project aims to transfer 860 × 106 m3 yr−1 of water from the north to the south. As the project is very sensitive to the availability of water in the northern regions, we evaluate its feasibility under different future climate change scenarios: under a pessimistic climate scenario, the project is infeasible; however, under an optimistic scenario a rescaled version might be feasible.
Benjamin L. Ruddell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5551–5558, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5551-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5551-2018, 2018
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We now lack sufficient empirical observations of consumptive use of water by humans and their economy, so it is worth considering what we can do with the withdrawal-based water use data we already possess. Fortunately, a wide range of applied water management and policy questions can be addressed using currently available withdrawal data. This discussion identifies important data collection problems and argues that the withdrawal data we already possess are adequate for some important purposes.
Sean W. D. Turner, James C. Bennett, David E. Robertson, and Stefano Galelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4841–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, 2017
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This study investigates the relationship between skill and value of ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Using data from a modern forecasting system, we show that skilled forecasts are more likely to provide benefits for reservoirs operated to maintain a target water level rather than reservoirs operated to satisfy a target demand. We identify the primary causes for this behaviour and provide specific recommendations for assessing the value of forecasts for reservoirs with supply objectives.
Yingmin Chu, Yanjun Shen, and Zaijian Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3061–3069, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3061-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3061-2017, 2017
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In this study, we analyzed the water footprint (WF) of crop production and found winter wheat, summer maize and vegetables were the top water-consuming crops in the Hebei southern plain (HSP). The total WF, WFblue, WFgreen and WFgrey for 13 years (2000–2012) of crop production were 604.8, 288.5, 141.3 and 175.0 km3, respectively, with an annual downtrend from 2000 to 2012. Finally, we evaluated a reasonable farming structure by analyzing scenarios of the main crops' WF.
La Zhuo, Mesfin M. Mekonnen, and Arjen Y. Hoekstra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4547–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4547-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4547-2016, 2016
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Benchmarks for the water footprint (WF) of crop production can serve as a reference and be helpful in setting WF reduction targets. The study explores which environmental factors should be distinguished when determining benchmarks for the consumptive (green and blue) WF of crops. Through a case study for winter wheat in China over 1961–2008, we find that when determining benchmark levels for the consumptive WF of a crop, it is most useful to distinguish between different climate zones.
Wei Hu and Bing Cheng Si
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3183–3191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3183-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3183-2016, 2016
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Bivariate wavelet coherence has been used to explore scale- and location-specific relationships between two variables. In reality, a process occurring on land surface is usually affected by more than two factors. Therefore, this manuscript is to develop a multiple wavelet coherence method. Results showed that new method outperforms other multivariate methods. Matlab codes for a new method are provided. This method can be widely applied in geosciences where a variable is controlled by many factors.
Julie E. Shortridge, Seth D. Guikema, and Benjamin F. Zaitchik
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2611–2628, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2611-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2611-2016, 2016
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This paper compares six methods for data-driven rainfall–runoff simulation in terms of predictive accuracy, error structure, interpretability, and uncertainty. We demonstrate that autocorrelation in model errors can result in biased estimates of important values and show how certain model structures can be more easily interpreted to yield insights on physical watershed function. Finally, we explore how model structure can impact uncertainty in climate change sensitivity estimates.
S. Satti, B. Zaitchik, and S. Siddiqui
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2275–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2275-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2275-2015, 2015
Z. Lu, Y. Wei, H. Xiao, S. Zou, J. Xie, J. Ren, and A. Western
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2261–2273, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2261-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2261-2015, 2015
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This paper quantitatively analyzed the evolution of human-water relationships in the Heihe River basin over the past 2000 years by reconstructing the catchment water balance. The results provided the basis for investigating the impacts of human societies on hydrological systems. The evolutionary processes of human-water relationships can be divided into four stages: predevelopment, take-off, acceleration, and rebalancing. And the transition of the human-water relationship had no fixed pattern.
A. Tilmant, G. Marques, and Y. Mohamed
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1457–1467, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1457-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1457-2015, 2015
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As water resources are increasingly used for various purposes, there is a need for a unified framework to describe, quantify and classify water use in a region, be it a catchment, a river basin or a country. This paper presents a novel water accounting framework whereby the contribution of traditional water uses but also storage services are properly considered.
L. E. Condon, S. Gangopadhyay, and T. Pruitt
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 159–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-159-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-159-2015, 2015
T. K. Lissner, C. A. Sullivan, D. E. Reusser, and J. P. Kropp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4039–4052, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4039-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4039-2014, 2014
X. Chen, D. Naresh, L. Upmanu, Z. Hao, L. Dong, Q. Ju, J. Wang, and S. Wang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1653–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1653-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1653-2014, 2014
J. Shi, J. Liu, and L. Pinter
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1349–1357, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1349-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1349-2014, 2014
A. Castelletti, F. Pianosi, X. Quach, and R. Soncini-Sessa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 189–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-189-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-189-2012, 2012
D. Anghileri, F. Pianosi, and R. Soncini-Sessa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2025–2038, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2025-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2025-2011, 2011
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Short summary
We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK. Specifically, multi-year cycles in the NAO are shown to influence the frequency of droughts and this influence changes considerably over time. We show that the influence of these varying controls is similar to the projected effects of climate change on water resources. We also show that these time-varying behaviours have important implications for water resource forecasts used for drought planning.
We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK....
