Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2449-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2449-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 May 2022
Research article |
| 11 May 2022
| 11 May 2022
The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the North Atlantic Oscillation index for forecasting water resource drought
William Rust
Cranfield Water Science Institute (CWSI), Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
John P. Bloomfield
British Geological Survey, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
Mark Cuthbert
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Park Place, Cardiff, CF10 3AT, United Kingdom
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Ron Corstanje
Centre for Environment and Agricultural Informatics, Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
Ian Holman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Cranfield Water Science Institute (CWSI), Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
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Short summary
We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK. Specifically, multi-year cycles in the NAO are shown to influence the frequency of droughts and this influence changes considerably over time. We show that the influence of these varying controls is similar to the projected effects of climate change on water resources. We also show that these time-varying behaviours have important implications for water resource forecasts used for drought planning.
We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK....
