Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2449-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2449-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 May 2022
Research article |
| 11 May 2022
| 11 May 2022
The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the North Atlantic Oscillation index for forecasting water resource drought
William Rust
Cranfield Water Science Institute (CWSI), Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
John P. Bloomfield
British Geological Survey, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom
Mark Cuthbert
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Park Place, Cardiff, CF10 3AT, United Kingdom
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Ron Corstanje
Centre for Environment and Agricultural Informatics, Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
Ian Holman
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Cranfield Water Science Institute (CWSI), Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sensitivity of groundwater levels to low-frequency climate variability in a large watershed L. Baulon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177636
- Have river flow droughts become more severe? A review of the evidence from the UK – a data-rich, temperate environment J. Hannaford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4371-2025
- North Atlantic Oscillation modulation of drought and vegetation activity in Türkiye M. Çelik et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05971-5
- How a millennium-long interplay of controlling climate factors over Southern Europe (1054–2020 CE) has driven the downward trend in Eastern Po Plain water reserves N. Diodato et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2025.2497216
- Connection between climatic change and international food prices: evidence from robust long-range cross-correlation and variable-lag transfer entropy with sliding windows approach Z. Dhifaoui https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-024-00482-1
- Unparalleled EA-like leading mode of variability in the early 20th century highlights the need for understanding non-stationarity in the North Atlantic climate system A. Halifa-Marín et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107796
- The Environment Agency Chalk groundwater level monitoring network in England R. Farrell & M. Whiteman https://doi.org/10.1144/SP517-2022-274
- Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts A. Chevuturi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02367-1
- Using century-long reanalysis and a rainfall-runoff model to explore multi-decadal variability in catchment hydrology at the European scale P. Brigode & L. Oudin https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5535-2025
- The non-stationary nature of Türkiye’s climate response to teleconnection patterns: A 75-year evolutionary analysis of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations (1950–2024) F. Keserci https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06374-w
- Dynamics of precipitation regions of Turkey: A clustering approach by K-means methodology in respect of climate variability A. Kömüşcü et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.186
- Reassessment of the declines in the largest freshwater lake in China (Poyang Lake): uneven trends, risks and underlying causes B. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118157
- A millennium-long perspective on recent groundwater changes in the Iberian Peninsula N. Diodato et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01396-6
- Long-range hydrological drought forecasting using multi-year cycles in the North Atlantic Oscillation W. Rust et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131831
- Large-scale climate drivers of groundwater level variations in northern France over the last century L. Baulon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132937
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sensitivity of groundwater levels to low-frequency climate variability in a large watershed L. Baulon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177636
- Have river flow droughts become more severe? A review of the evidence from the UK – a data-rich, temperate environment J. Hannaford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-4371-2025
- North Atlantic Oscillation modulation of drought and vegetation activity in Türkiye M. Çelik et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05971-5
- How a millennium-long interplay of controlling climate factors over Southern Europe (1054–2020 CE) has driven the downward trend in Eastern Po Plain water reserves N. Diodato et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2025.2497216
- Connection between climatic change and international food prices: evidence from robust long-range cross-correlation and variable-lag transfer entropy with sliding windows approach Z. Dhifaoui https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-024-00482-1
- Unparalleled EA-like leading mode of variability in the early 20th century highlights the need for understanding non-stationarity in the North Atlantic climate system A. Halifa-Marín et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107796
- The Environment Agency Chalk groundwater level monitoring network in England R. Farrell & M. Whiteman https://doi.org/10.1144/SP517-2022-274
- Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts A. Chevuturi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02367-1
- Using century-long reanalysis and a rainfall-runoff model to explore multi-decadal variability in catchment hydrology at the European scale P. Brigode & L. Oudin https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5535-2025
- The non-stationary nature of Türkiye’s climate response to teleconnection patterns: A 75-year evolutionary analysis of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations (1950–2024) F. Keserci https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06374-w
- Dynamics of precipitation regions of Turkey: A clustering approach by K-means methodology in respect of climate variability A. Kömüşcü et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.186
- Reassessment of the declines in the largest freshwater lake in China (Poyang Lake): uneven trends, risks and underlying causes B. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118157
- A millennium-long perspective on recent groundwater changes in the Iberian Peninsula N. Diodato et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01396-6
- Long-range hydrological drought forecasting using multi-year cycles in the North Atlantic Oscillation W. Rust et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131831
- Large-scale climate drivers of groundwater level variations in northern France over the last century L. Baulon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132937
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 04 Aug 2026
Short summary
We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK. Specifically, multi-year cycles in the NAO are shown to influence the frequency of droughts and this influence changes considerably over time. We show that the influence of these varying controls is similar to the projected effects of climate change on water resources. We also show that these time-varying behaviours have important implications for water resource forecasts used for drought planning.
We highlight the importance of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling droughts in the UK....
